1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - For the bond market, it is expected that there will be no trend - based market, and caution is advised [6][7]. - For the stock index market, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [9][10]. - For the precious metals market, the long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is advisable to consider going long on gold futures [11][12]. - For other futures markets, different views and strategies are proposed according to the specific fundamentals and market conditions of each variety. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts declined by 0.40%, 0.09%, 0.05%, and 0.01% respectively [5]. - The central bank conducted 214.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, and 342.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 120 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - term deposits matured [5]. - The growth rate of real estate loans has rebounded. At the end of the second quarter of 2025, the balance of RMB real estate loans was 53.33 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 0.4% [5]. - It is expected that there will be no trend - based market, and caution is advised [6][7]. 3.2 Stock Index - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM increased by 1.12%, 0.90%, 1.15%, and 0.66% respectively [8][9]. - Central enterprises are required to integrate into urban development, promote new - quality productivity, and improve the living environment [9]. - Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [9][10]. 3.3 Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, the main contracts of gold and silver increased by 0.40% and 1.32% respectively [11]. - The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is advisable to consider going long on gold futures [11][12]. 3.4 Other Commodities - **Steel Products (Thread, Hot - Rolled Coil)**: On the previous trading day, steel product futures rose sharply. Although there is an expectation of supply contraction, the downward trend of demand and over - capacity still suppress prices. It is advisable to wait for the right opportunity to go short [13]. - **Iron Ore**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rose sharply. The supply - demand pattern has weakened marginally, but it may continue to be strong in the short term. It is advisable to look for low - level buying opportunities [15]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of coking coal and coke reached the daily limit. Although there is an expectation of supply contraction, over - capacity may lead to an increase in supply. It is advisable to wait for the right opportunity to go short in the medium term [17]. - **Ferroalloys**: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of manganese silicon and silicon iron increased by 1.76% and 3.74% respectively. The short - term demand has peaked, and supply may exceed demand. It is advisable to pay attention to long - position opportunities in the low - level support range [19][20]. - **Crude Oil**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil opened low and moved low. Fund managers reduced their net long positions, and various factors restricted oil prices. It is advisable to pay attention to short - position opportunities [21][22][23]. - **Fuel Oil**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil rebounded after hitting the bottom. The Asian market may be in a state of supply surplus, and it is advisable to pay attention to short - position opportunities [24][25]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of synthetic rubber increased by 1.72%. The supply - demand is short - term loose, and it is advisable to wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [26][27]. - **Natural Rubber**: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber increased. It is expected to maintain a relatively strong oscillation, and it is advisable to pay attention to medium - term long - position opportunities [28][29][30]. - **PVC**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PVC increased by 3.69%. The supply exceeds demand, but the price may be in a relatively strong oscillation [31][34]. - **Urea**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of urea increased by 0.55%. The short - term market fluctuates slightly, and it is advisable to take a long - position view in the medium term [35][37]. - **PX**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PX increased by 0.53%. The short - term supply - demand is in a tight balance, and it is advisable to participate cautiously [38]. - **PTA**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PTA increased by 0.38%. The short - term supply increases and demand weakens, but there is support at the bottom. It is advisable to participate in the range and pay attention to the rebound of processing fees [39][40][41]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of ethylene glycol increased by 0.98%. The supply pressure is relieved, and it is advisable to participate in the range and pay attention to port inventory and imports [42]. - **Short - Fiber**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of short - fiber increased by 0.75%. The short - term fundamental drive is insufficient, and it is advisable to follow the cost and pay attention to cost changes and production reduction [43][44][45]. - **Bottle Chips**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of bottle chips increased by 0.33%. The raw material price fluctuates, and it is expected to follow the cost and oscillate [46]. - **Soda Ash**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of soda ash increased by 8.01%. The short - term market fluctuates slightly, and it is advisable to be rational and not over - pursue highs or lows [47][48]. - **Glass**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of glass increased by 9.08%. Affected by market sentiment, the price has risen, and it is advisable to pay attention to the Politburo meeting at the end of the month [49]. - **Caustic Soda**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of caustic soda increased by 3.95%. The supply is relatively sufficient, and the demand is supported by the main downstream. It is expected to oscillate narrowly [50][51]. - **Pulp**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of pulp increased by 0.75%. The supply tends to expand, and the demand is weak. The pulp price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [52][53]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of lithium carbonate increased by 2.71%. Although there are concerns about supply, the supply - demand pattern remains unchanged. It is advisable to observe more and operate less [54]. - **Copper**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper opened high and oscillated. Although the US tariff has an impact, the price may rise. It is advisable to pay attention to long - position opportunities [55][56][57]. - **Tin**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin oscillated and increased. The supply is tight, and it is expected to oscillate strongly [58]. - **Nickel**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel increased. The first - grade nickel is in a state of surplus, and it is expected to oscillate [59][60]. - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: On the previous trading day, soybean meal increased, and soybean oil decreased. The supply of soybeans is relatively loose, and it is advisable to pay attention to long - position opportunities for soybean meal and call options for soybean oil [61][62]. - **Palm Oil**: The export of palm oil in Malaysia has decreased, and the domestic inventory has increased. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of widening the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [63][64][65]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The price of Canadian rapeseed has fallen. The inventory of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal has changed, and it is advisable to pay attention to long - position opportunities [66][67]. - **Cotton**: The global supply - demand of cotton is expected to be loose, and the domestic industry is in the off - season. It is advisable to wait and see [69][70][71]. - **Sugar**: The domestic and foreign sugar markets have different situations. The short - term basis has been repaired, and it is advisable to wait and see [72][73][74]. - **Apples**: The expected reduction in apple production has been falsified, and it is advisable to pay attention to short - position opportunities at high prices [75][76][77]. - **Pigs**: The price of live pigs has fallen slightly. It is in the off - season of consumption, and it is advisable to hold previous short positions [78][79]. - **Eggs**: The supply of eggs may increase in July, and it is advisable to consider the 9 - 10 reverse spread [80][81][82]. - **Corn and Starch**: The price of corn has increased slightly, and the supply - demand of corn tends to be balanced. The production and demand of corn starch are weak, and it is advisable to wait and see [83][84][85]. - **Logs**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of logs decreased by 0.48%. The supply has increased, and it is expected to oscillate and adjust before the first delivery [86][87][89].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - For the bond market, due to the stable macro - data but weak recovery momentum, it is expected that there will be no trend - based market, and caution is advised [6][7]. - Regarding the stock index market, although the domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, the low valuation of domestic assets and the resilience of the Chinese economy make the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets promising, and going long on stock index futures is considered [9][10]. - In the precious metals market, the long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and going long on gold futures is considered [11][12]. - For the steel market, the short - term strength of steel futures may continue, but the long - term demand and over - capacity issues remain, and investors can wait for short - selling opportunities after the rebound [13]. - In the iron ore market, the supply - demand pattern is marginally weakening, but the short - term strength may continue, and investors can look for low - level buying opportunities [15]. - For the coal and coke market, the short - term strength may continue, and investors can wait for medium - term short - selling opportunities [16]. - In the iron alloy market, the short - term supply may be in excess, and investors can consider long - buying opportunities in the low - level support range if the spot losses continue to expand [18][19]. - For the energy market, the oil price is under pressure, and short - selling opportunities for the crude oil and fuel oil main contracts are worth paying attention to [20][23][25]. - In the rubber market, synthetic rubber can wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound, while natural rubber is expected to be in a relatively strong oscillation, and medium - term long - buying opportunities can be focused on [26][27][30]. - For the chemical product market, PVC, PTA, and other products are expected to be in a short - term oscillation, and investors need to pay attention to cost changes and control risks [31][39][40]. - In the agricultural product market, different products have different trends. For example, soybean meal can consider long - buying opportunities after adjustment, while cotton is recommended to be observed [58][64][66]. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day saw a full - line decline in treasury bond futures. The central bank conducted 170.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 5.55 billion yuan. The 7 - month LPR remained stable. The "Housing Rental Regulations" will be implemented on September 15, 2025 [5]. - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the treasury bond yield is at a relatively low level. It is expected that there will be no trend - based market, and caution is advised [6][7]. Stock Index - The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The housing policy in Chengdu was relaxed, and the electricity consumption data in June was released [8][9]. - Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, the low valuation of domestic assets and the resilience of the Chinese economy make the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets promising, and going long on stock index futures is considered [9][10]. Precious Metals - The previous trading day, gold and silver futures showed different trends. The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue due to factors such as the complex global trade and financial environment and the possible Fed rate cut, and going long on gold futures is considered [11][12]. Steel (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil) - The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rose significantly. The policy triggered the expectation of supply contraction, but the real - estate downturn and over - capacity still suppress the price. The short - term strength may continue, and investors can wait for short - selling opportunities after the rebound [13]. Iron Ore - The previous trading day, iron ore futures rose significantly. Policy expectations boosted the price, but the supply - demand pattern is marginally weakening. The short - term strength may continue, and investors can look for low - level buying opportunities [15]. Coal and Coke (Coking Coal, Coke) - The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to rise. Policy expectations led to supply contraction expectations, but the actual supply may increase. The short - term strength may continue, and investors can wait for medium - term short - selling opportunities [16]. Iron Alloys - The previous trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron futures rose. The supply of manganese ore is expected to be disturbed, and the supply of iron alloys is in excess in the short term. If the spot losses continue to expand, long - buying opportunities in the low - level support range can be considered [18][19]. Crude Oil - The previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated upward. The decrease in the number of active oil rigs in the US supported the oil price, but factors such as the reduction of net long positions by fund managers and EU sanctions on Russia restricted the oil price. Short - selling opportunities for the main contract are worth paying attention to [20][21][23]. Fuel Oil - The previous trading day, fuel oil opened higher and oscillated, blocked by the 60 - day moving average. The influx of fuel oil from the Middle East and Russia and trade frictions are negative for the price. Short - selling opportunities for the main contract are worth paying attention to [24][25]. Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day, synthetic rubber rose. The raw material price decreased, and the supply - demand is short - term loose. Wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [26][27]. Natural Rubber - The previous trading day, natural rubber rose. It is expected to be in a relatively strong oscillation. The supply is affected by rainfall, and the demand of tire enterprises is mixed. Medium - term long - buying opportunities can be focused on [29][30]. PVC - The previous trading day, PVC rose. The supply - demand pattern is still in excess, but the downward space is limited. It is expected to be in a relatively strong oscillation [31][34]. Urea - The previous trading day, urea rose. The short - term market is in a narrow - range fluctuation, waiting for policy and demand implementation. It is considered to be bullish in the medium term [35][37]. PX - The previous trading day, PX rose. The short - term supply - demand balance is in a tight pattern, and the cost support is insufficient. It is in a short - term oscillation adjustment, and investors need to be cautious and pay attention to cost changes [38]. PTA - The previous trading day, PTA rose. The supply increased, the demand weakened, and the cost support was slightly insufficient. It is expected to be in a short - term oscillatory and pressured operation, but the lower support is strong. Interval participation is considered, and attention should be paid to the low - level rebound of processing fees [39][40]. Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day, ethylene glycol rose. The supply pressure is relieved, the inventory is at a low level, and the lower support is strong. Interval participation is the main strategy, and attention should be paid to port inventory and imports [41]. Short - Fiber - The previous trading day, short - fiber rose. The short - term fundamental driving force is insufficient, and it may follow the cost to oscillate. Caution is advised when looking at the repair space of processing differentials, and attention should be paid to cost changes and device production cuts [42]. Bottle - Chip - The previous trading day, bottle - chip rose. The device maintenance increased, the inventory decreased, and it is expected to follow the cost to oscillate. Risk control is necessary [43]. Soda Ash - The previous trading day, soda ash rose. The short - term market is in a narrow - range fluctuation, and the price may rise slightly. The long - term supply - demand pattern is in excess, and rational treatment is recommended [44][45]. Glass - The previous trading day, glass rose. Affected by the macro - sentiment and some enterprises' price increases, the overall disk rose. Attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting at the end of the month [46]. Caustic Soda - The previous trading day, caustic soda rose. The supply is expected to be relatively sufficient, and the demand has limited positive support. It is expected to be in a narrow - range oscillation and is easily affected by macro - sentiment [47][48]. Pulp - The previous trading day, pulp rose. The supply has an expansion tendency, the downstream demand is weak, and the market is in a weak operation [49][50]. Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day, lithium carbonate rose. The supply - demand pattern has not changed, and the inventory is high. It is recommended to observe more and take less action and control risks [51]. Copper - The previous trading day, copper rose significantly. The spot supply is tight, and the price is expected to continue to rise. Going long on the main contract is considered [52][53][54]. Tin - The previous trading day, tin rose. The ore supply is tight, and the inventory is decreasing. It is expected to be in a relatively strong oscillation [55]. Nickel - The previous trading day, nickel rose. The fundamental supply is in excess, and it is expected to oscillate [56]. Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil - The previous trading day, soybean meal rose, and soybean oil fell. The supply of soybeans is relatively loose, and the cost support is strong. After the adjustment of soybean meal, long - buying opportunities in the support range can be considered, and call option opportunities in the support range after the decline of soybean oil can be considered [57][58]. Palm Oil - The previous trading day, palm oil fell. The export data is mediocre, and the inventory is high. Considering the opportunity to widen the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [59][61]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The previous trading day, rapeseed - related products showed certain trends. The domestic inventory situation is different, and the opportunity to go long on rapeseed - related products is considered [62][63]. Cotton - The previous trading day, cotton showed a decline. The global supply - demand is in a loose expectation, and the short - term is following the overall commodity rebound. The July supply - demand report is negative. It is recommended to observe [64][65][66]. Sugar - The previous trading day, sugar oscillated. The domestic inventory is low, the import volume is high, and the short - term valuation is neutral after basis repair. It is recommended to observe [67][68]. Apple - The previous trading day, apple futures oscillated. The expected production reduction is disproven, and there is a slight increase in production. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices [70][71]. Live Pigs - No new and distinct content different from palm oil is provided. The same palm oil - related information is repeated, so no new summary is made here. Eggs - Similar to rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, the opportunity to go long on rapeseed - related products is considered [74][75]. Corn and Corn Starch - The previous trading day, corn and corn starch rose. The domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance, and the consumption is warming up. It is recommended to observe, while corn starch follows the corn market [76][77]. Logs - The previous trading day, logs rose. The supply increased, the inventory slightly increased, and the price was adjusted. It is expected to be in an oscillation adjustment before the first delivery, and the main 09 and far - month contracts are affected by positive sentiment [78][80].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The overall view is that different futures products have different market trends and investment suggestions. For some products like government bonds, it is expected that there will be no trend - style market, and caution is advised; for stock index futures, long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and going long on stock index futures is considered; for precious metals, the long - term bull market trend is expected to continue, and going long on gold futures is considered [5][8][10]. Summary by Product Government Bonds - Last trading day, most government bond futures closed down. The 30 - year, 10 - year, and 5 - year main contracts declined, while the 2 - year main contract remained flat. The central bank conducted 187.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 102.8 billion yuan. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the government bond yield is at a relatively low level. It is expected that there will be no trend - style market, and caution is advised [5]. Stock Index - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. The Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project started, with a total investment of about 12 trillion yuan. From January to June 2025, the number of newly - established foreign - invested enterprises increased, but the actual use of foreign capital decreased. Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, the low valuation of domestic assets and the resilience of the Chinese economy make the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets promising, and going long on stock index futures is considered [7][8]. Precious Metals - Last trading day, gold and silver main contracts rose. The US consumer confidence index showed an upward trend. The complex global trade and financial environment, the "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends, and the gold - buying behavior of central banks support the precious metals market. If the US economic growth slows down, the Fed may cut interest rates, providing new upward momentum for gold. The long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and going long on gold futures is considered [10]. Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - rolled Coil) - Last trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rose slightly. The important meeting at the beginning of the month triggered expectations of supply contraction, but the downward trend of the real estate industry and over - capacity still suppress the prices. The market is in the off - season, and the price rebound space may be limited. Technically, the short - term may remain strong. Investors can wait for the right opportunity to short after the rebound [12]. Iron Ore - Last trading day, iron ore futures rose slightly. Policy expectations boosted the black - series commodities. The iron water daily output declined, the supply increased after April, and the port inventory is close to last year's level. The supply - demand pattern has weakened marginally, and the valuation is relatively high. Technically, the short - term may remain strong. Investors can look for low - level buying opportunities and take profit in time [14]. Coking Coal and Coke - Last trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to rise. The important meeting at the beginning of the month triggered expectations of supply contraction. The coal mine operating rate in the main production areas is rising, and the over - capacity may lead to an increase in supply. The steel mill's iron water output is falling, and the procurement intention is weak. The cost support of coke is effective. Technically, the short - term may remain strong. Investors can wait for the right opportunity to short in the medium - term [16]. Ferroalloys - Last trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron main contracts rose. The manganese ore supply from Gabon decreased, and the Australian ore supply increased. The port manganese ore inventory rose slightly. The iron alloy output increased at a low level, and the demand is weak, with high inventory. In the off - season, the short - term demand has peaked, and the supply is in excess, with pressure on prices. If the spot loss continues to expand, low - level out - of - the - money call options can be considered [18]. Crude Oil - Last trading day, INE crude oil rose significantly without fundamental support. The CFTC data showed that fund managers reduced their net long positions. The number of US oil and gas rigs increased, and the EU approved a new round of sanctions against Russia. The decline in US oil rigs provides some support for oil prices, but the reduction in net long positions and trade frictions restrict the upward movement. Shorting opportunities for the main crude oil contract can be considered [20][21]. Fuel Oil - Last trading day, fuel oil rose significantly. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil spot spread reached a nearly three - year low, with sufficient supply and weak demand. The low - sulfur fuel oil market may have some downward space in the short - term, with expected supply increase and sufficient inventory. Shorting opportunities for the main fuel oil contract can be considered [23][24]. Synthetic Rubber - Last trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract rose. The raw material price declined, and the processing profit became positive. The supply - demand is short - term loose. Wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [26]. Natural Rubber - Last trading day, natural rubber main contracts rose. It is expected that the natural rubber market will maintain a strong - side oscillation next week. The supply may increase due to less rainfall in the production areas, and the cost support weakens. The demand from tire enterprises is mixed, and the inventory has slightly decreased. Mid - term long - buying opportunities can be considered [29]. PVC - Last trading day, the PVC main contract declined slightly. The supply - demand imbalance continues, but the downward space is limited. The industry's promotion of stable growth in the petrochemical industry may drive the market. The supply decreased last week, the demand from downstream enterprises is weak, and the export is affected by India's rainy season and tariffs. The cost and profit are mainly affected by raw materials, and the profit has improved. The market is expected to oscillate strongly [31]. Urea - Last trading day, the urea main contract rose slightly. The short - term domestic urea market will fluctuate narrowly. The supply is expected to remain high, the agricultural demand is limited, and the industrial demand increases slowly. The inventory is higher than expected. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term and be bullish in the medium - term [34]. PX - Last trading day, the PX2509 main contract rose. The PX load declined, and some refineries had maintenance or load - reduction. The import volume increased in May 2025. The rise in European diesel prices and the rebound of oil prices support the market, but the supply - demand balance is tight in the short - term, and the cost support may be insufficient. Short - term oscillation adjustment is expected, and cautious participation is recommended [36]. PTA - Last trading day, the PTA2509 main contract rose. The supply load increased, and the demand from the polyester industry decreased. The profit is concentrated upstream, and the processing fee is under pressure but has rebounded recently. There may be more unexpected maintenance in the future, with strong support below. Interval participation is recommended, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of expanding the processing fee [38]. Ethylene Glycol - Last trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract rose. The overall operating load increased, and some plants had maintenance. The inventory in the East China main port decreased. The demand from the polyester industry declined. The short - term supply pressure has been relieved, with support below. Cautious attitude towards the downside space is recommended, and interval participation is mainly suggested, paying attention to port inventory and import changes [39]. Short - fiber - Last trading day, the short - fiber 2509 main contract rose. The supply load decreased, the demand from the downstream is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. The cost of PTA and ethylene glycol oscillates, with insufficient short - term drivers. Some plants have production cut, and the processing fee is gradually repairing. It is expected to oscillate following the cost, and cautious attitude towards the repair space of the processing difference is recommended [41]. Bottle - chip - Last trading day, the bottle - chip 2509 main contract rose. Recently, more bottle - chip plants had maintenance, and the load declined. The downstream soft - drink consumption is recovering, and the export is growing. The raw material price oscillates, and the inventory is reducing, with support for the market. It is expected to oscillate following the cost [42]. Soda Ash - Last trading day, the soda ash 2509 main contract closed flat. Some plants' loads changed. The production was stable at a high level, and the inventory increased. The downstream demand is stable, with flexible transactions. In the short - term, the market is expected to oscillate and adjust. In the long - term, the supply - demand imbalance is difficult to improve, and the downstream glass industry has limited support. Rational attitude is recommended, and excessive chasing or shorting is not advisable [43]. Glass - Last trading day, the glass 2509 main contract declined slightly. The number of in - production lines remained low. The market sentiment in different regions is different, and the downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. The overall market is driven by macro - sentiment and some enterprises' price increases, with some replenishment by the middle and lower reaches. Attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting at the end of the month [45]. Caustic Soda - Last trading day, the caustic soda 2509 main contract declined slightly. The production of large - scale caustic soda enterprises increased last week, and the supply is expected to increase next week. The non - aluminum downstream is cautious in purchasing, and the supply - demand difference is positive. The inventory increased, and the capacity utilization ratio in different regions changed. The price of alumina may continue to oscillate strongly in the short - term. The overall market is expected to oscillate narrowly [46]. Pulp - Last trading day, the pulp 2509 main contract rose. The supply is expected to expand, and a new pulp factory will be put into operation in 2026. The downstream product output declined, and the demand in the off - season is weak. The supply pressure increases due to the expected arrival of Brazilian shipments. The port inventory is high, and the market confidence is suppressed. The price of raw pulp oscillates, and the downstream demand is weak. The overall pulp price is expected to oscillate and adjust [48]. Lithium Carbonate - Last trading day, the lithium carbonate main contract rose. The concerns about the supply side due to mining license issues have pushed up the price, but the supply - demand pattern remains unchanged. The supply is strong, the production intention of refineries is high, and the consumption has improved, but the inventory is high and still increasing. The impact of supply - side sentiment is greater than the actual situation, and more observation and less action are recommended [50]. Copper - Last trading day, Shanghai copper rebounded slightly. The US tariff on copper will be implemented on August 1st, which led to the return of refined copper to China and depressed the price. After the decline, the price stabilized and rebounded. Long - buying opportunities for the Shanghai copper main contract can be considered [51]. Tin - Last trading day, Shanghai tin oscillated. The supply from the mine end is tight, but the expectation of tin mine resumption in the fourth quarter has increased. The domestic processing fee is low, and the smelter's operating rate is below normal. The export from Indonesia has recovered, but the overall supply is still short. The consumption in the traditional field is in the off - season. The inventory at home and abroad is decreasing, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [54]. Nickel - Last trading day, Shanghai nickel rose. The price of the mine end has weakened due to the pressure from the stainless - steel industry. The downstream nickel - iron plants are in losses, and some plants in Indonesia have shut down for maintenance. The stainless - steel market is strong in the futures but weak in the spot. The consumption is weak, and there is pressure above. The inventory in China is relatively high, and the primary nickel market is in excess [55]. Soybean Products (Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil) - Last trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil main contracts rose. The domestic soybean arrival volume is high, and the oil - mill's profit is low, with sufficient supply in the future. The increase in Brazilian soybean import cost provides support. The oil - mill's inventory of soybean meal and soybean oil increased. The consumption of soybean oil may be affected by the slowdown of catering growth, while the feed demand for soybean meal is expected to increase slightly. For soybean meal, long - buying opportunities at the support level after adjustment can be considered; for soybean oil, call - option opportunities at the support level after the decline can be considered [56]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil prices rose for the third consecutive week. The export volume of Malaysian palm oil products decreased in the first 15 days of July. The biodiesel consumption in Indonesia increased, and the palm oil tax revenue is expected to support the biodiesel quota plan. The domestic palm oil inventory is at a medium - high level in the past 7 years. The opportunity of expanding the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil can be considered [58]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed slightly strengthened. The import volume of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal in China decreased in May 2025. The inventory of rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil in China decreased. Long - buying opportunities for rapeseed products can be considered [61]. Cotton - Last trading day, domestic Zhengzhou cotton rebounded to a new high. The US Department of Agriculture's July supply - demand report showed an increase in the global and US cotton production and ending inventory. The domestic cotton sowing area increased in 2025, and the output is expected to increase. The global supply - demand is expected to be loose, and the short - term cotton price rebounds with the overall commodity market. The 7 - month supply - demand report is bearish. The domestic industry is in the off - season, and the downstream inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to wait and see [62]. Sugar - Last trading day, domestic Zhengzhou sugar oscillated. The Brazilian sugar production is expected to decrease. The import volume of sugar in China increased in June but decreased from January to June. The sugar production in the key central - southern region of Brazil decreased more than expected in the second half of June. The domestic inventory is low, and the import volume is high. After the short - term basis repair, the valuation is neutral. It is recommended to wait and see [66]. Apple - Last trading day, domestic apple futures oscillated. The expectation of apple production reduction has been falsified, and the production is expected to increase slightly in the 2025 - 2026 season. The inventory in the main production areas decreased. The main contract represents the new - year purchase price. Short - selling opportunities at high prices can be considered [69]. Pig - The national average price of pigs decreased yesterday. The northern market was strong on the weekend, with the support of farmers' supply reduction, second - fattening, and seasonal consumption. The central region increased the supply, and the price decreased slightly. The southern market rose, with the support of the typhoon, farmers' reluctance to sell, and second - fattening. The short - term southern market may still have a small upward space, but attention should be paid to the supply rhythm [70]. Eggs - Last trading day, the average price of eggs in the main production and sales areas rose. The cost per catty of eggs decreased slightly, and the profit is still in losses. The inventory of laying hens increased in June and is expected to continue to increase in July. The supply is expected to increase year - on - year in July, and it is in the consumption off - season. The supply pressure in October may be relieved. The 9 - 10 reverse - spread strategy can be considered [72]. Corn and Corn Starch - Last trading day, corn and corn starch main contracts rose. The market is worried about the impact of high - temperature on US corn growth. The domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance, and the consumption is recovering. The port inventory has decreased rapidly, and the inventory pressure has been relieved. The import may increase in the future, and the central - reserve corn auction has a net sales. The upward movement may face pressure, and waiting and seeing is recommended. Corn starch has weak supply and demand, high inventory, and follows the corn market [75]. Logs - Last trading day, the main log contract rose. The number of expected arrival ships of New Zealand logs in 18 ports increased in the 27th week of 2025, and the arrival volume increased significantly. The cost factors are mixed. The domestic log inventory has been decreasing, and the radiation - pine inventory has decreased rapidly. The price of radiation - pine logs in the port is stable. Before the first delivery, the market is expected to oscillate and adjust. The delivery situation has a positive impact on the main 09 and far - month contracts, but the price of standard products has not increased significantly [78].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is advisable to consider going long on gold futures [10]. - China's equity assets are still promising in the long - term, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [8]. - For most commodities, the market situation is complex, and different trading strategies should be adopted according to the specific fundamentals of each commodity, such as waiting for opportunities to short, going long at low positions, or temporarily observing. 3. Summary by Commodity 3.1 Fixed - Income Products - **Treasury Bonds**: The previous trading day saw most treasury bond futures close higher. The current macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. It is expected that there will be no trending market, and caution should be maintained [5][6]. 3.2 Equity - Related Products - **Stock Index Futures**: The previous trading day saw mixed performance in stock index futures. The domestic economic situation is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. However, due to the low valuation of domestic assets and the resilience of the Chinese economy, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [7][8][9]. 3.3 Precious Metals - **Precious Metals**: The previous trading day saw a slight decline in the closing price of the gold main contract and a slight increase in the silver main contract. The current global trade and financial environment is complex, and factors such as "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is advisable to consider going long on gold futures [10][11]. 3.4 Base Metals - **Copper**: The previous trading day saw Shanghai copper fluctuate slightly. The US imposing additional tariffs on copper has been confirmed, which has put downward pressure on Shanghai copper prices. After the decline, the price has gradually stabilized. It is advisable to temporarily observe the main contract of Shanghai copper [57][58]. - **Tin**: The previous trading day saw Shanghai tin fluctuate. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the consumption situation is good. The inventory at home and abroad is showing a downward trend. Overall, the supply is still in short supply [59]. - **Nickel**: The previous trading day saw Shanghai nickel rise. The price of the ore end has weakened, and the actual consumption is still not optimistic. The refined nickel is still in an oversupply situation, and the nickel price is expected to fluctuate [60]. 3.5 Ferrous Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The previous trading day saw a slight rebound in rebar and hot - rolled coil futures. Although the important meeting at the beginning of the month has triggered expectations of supply contraction, the downward trend of the real estate industry and over - capacity are still suppressing the price. The price rebound space may be limited. It is advisable for investors to wait patiently for shorting opportunities after the rebound and set appropriate stop - profits [12][13]. - **Iron Ore**: The previous trading day saw a slight increase in iron ore futures. Policy expectations have boosted the price, but the supply - demand pattern has weakened marginally. The price valuation is relatively high. Technically, it may continue to be strong in the short - term. It is advisable for investors to pay attention to buying opportunities at low positions and set stop - profits in time [15]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The previous trading day saw a late - session rally in coking coal and coke futures. The important meeting at the beginning of the month has triggered expectations of supply contraction, but in reality, the coal mine start - up rate is rising, and the steel mill's procurement willingness is not strong. Technically, it may break through the previous high and continue to rise. It is advisable for investors to wait patiently for appropriate mid - term shorting entry points and set stop - profits in time [17][18]. - **Ferroalloys**: The previous trading day saw the manganese - silicon and silicon - iron main contracts close higher. The supply of ferroalloys is still high, and the demand is weak. After entering the off - season, the short - term demand has peaked, and the overall price is under pressure. If the spot losses continue to expand recently, it is advisable to consider low - value out - of - the - money call options [20]. 3.6 Energy Products - **Crude Oil**: The previous trading day saw INE crude oil open low and close high, supported by the 10 - day moving average. The decline in US active rig counts and summer oil demand support oil prices, but tariff frictions and sanctions against Russia still restrict oil prices. It is advisable to temporarily observe the main contract of crude oil [21][22][23]. - **Fuel Oil**: The previous trading day saw fuel oil rise and then fall, showing a weak trend. The supply of fuel oil in Asia is abundant, and trade frictions are intensifying, which is negative for fuel oil prices. It is advisable to pay attention to shorting opportunities in the main contract of fuel oil [24][25][27]. 3.7 Chemical Products - **Synthetic Rubber**: The previous trading day saw the synthetic rubber main contract close higher. The raw material price has fallen, and the operating profit has turned positive. The supply - demand situation is short - term loose. It is advisable to wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [28][29]. - **Natural Rubber**: The previous trading day saw the natural rubber main contract and 20 - rubber main contract close higher. It is expected that the natural rubber market will maintain a relatively strong oscillation next week. It is advisable to pay attention to mid - term long - position opportunities [30][31]. - **PVC**: The previous trading day saw the PVC main contract close slightly higher. The current PVC market still has an oversupply situation, but the room for further decline is limited, and it may enter a bottom - oscillation stage [32][33][36]. - **Urea**: The previous trading day saw the urea main contract close higher. The short - term domestic urea market will fluctuate narrowly, waiting for the implementation of policies and demand. It is advisable to treat it as oscillating in the short - term and bullish in the medium - term [37][38]. - **Para - Xylene (PX)**: The previous trading day saw the PX2509 main contract rise. The short - term supply - demand balance of PX remains tight, but the support from crude oil costs is slightly insufficient. It is advisable to participate cautiously, pay attention to the changes in crude oil costs, and control risks [39][40]. - **PTA**: The previous trading day saw the PTA2509 main contract rise. The short - term supply of PTA increases, the demand weakens, and the cost support from crude oil is slightly insufficient. However, the processing fee of PTA has dropped to a low level, and subsequent production cuts may increase. It is advisable to participate within a range and pay attention to the opportunity to expand the processing fee when it is low [41]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The previous trading day saw the ethylene glycol main contract rise. The supply pressure has been relieved recently, and the inventory has decreased and is at a low level. It is advisable to be cautious about the downward space and participate within a range, paying attention to port inventory and import changes [42][43]. - **Short - Fiber**: The previous trading day saw the short - fiber 2509 main contract fluctuate and adjust. The short - term fundamentals of short - fiber lack driving forces, and some factories have cut production. The processing fee is gradually recovering. It is advisable to be cautious about the space for the repair of the processing spread and pay attention to cost changes and the intensity of plant production cuts [44]. - **Bottle Chips**: The previous trading day saw the bottle chips 2509 main contract rise. Recently, the raw material price has fluctuated, and the support is slightly insufficient. The number of bottle chip plant overhauls has increased, and the inventory has decreased. It is expected that the market will follow the cost - end oscillation. It is advisable to participate cautiously and pay attention to cost price changes [45][46]. - **Soda Ash**: The previous trading day saw the main 2509 contract of soda ash close higher. The short - term soda ash market is expected to oscillate and adjust. In the long - term, the oversupply situation is difficult to alleviate. It is advisable to be rational and not over - pursue high prices or short [47]. - **Glass**: The previous trading day saw the main 2509 contract of glass close higher. The actual supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious driving forces. The price increase yesterday was mainly due to the pull of the energy sector such as coking coal, and it is expected to rebound in the short - term [48][49]. - **Caustic Soda**: The previous trading day saw the main 2509 contract of caustic soda close lower. The short - term price may have some support, but the overall positive support is still relatively limited [50][51]. - **Pulp**: The previous trading day saw the main 2509 contract of pulp close higher. The supply of pulp still tends to expand, and the demand in the market is weak. The overall pulp price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [53]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The previous trading day saw the lithium carbonate main contract close higher. Although there are expectations of supply - side reforms and production cuts by enterprises, the supply - demand pattern has not changed, and the inventory remains high. It is not advisable for investors to chase high prices [55][56]. 3.8 Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: The previous trading day saw soybean oil and soybean meal futures close higher. The domestic soybean supply is relatively loose, and the import cost has increased. It is advisable to consider long - position opportunities in the low - support range for soybean meal after adjustment, and for soybean oil, consider call option opportunities in the support range after the price decline [61][62]. - **Palm Oil**: The previous trading day saw the Malaysian palm oil futures close lower. The export data of Malaysian palm oil in July 1 - 15 was weak, and the domestic palm oil inventory has increased. It is advisable to consider the opportunity to widen the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [63][64]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The previous trading day saw the Canadian rapeseed futures close higher. The domestic rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil are all in the process of destocking. It is advisable to consider long - position opportunities in rapeseed products [65][66]. - **Cotton**: The previous trading day saw domestic Zheng cotton rebound to a new high. The US Department of Agriculture's July report raised the estimates of US cotton production and global inventory. The global supply - demand is expected to remain loose, and it is advisable to observe [67][68][70]. - **Sugar**: The previous trading day saw domestic Zheng sugar fluctuate. The production forecast in Brazil has been lowered. The domestic inventory is low, and the supply - demand contradiction is not sharp. It is advisable to observe [71][72]. - **Apples**: The previous trading day saw domestic apple futures rise slightly. The expected production reduction has been falsified, and the national apple production is expected to increase slightly. It is advisable to pay attention to short - selling opportunities when the price is high [73][75][76]. - **Hogs**: The previous trading day saw the main contract of hogs close lower. The short - term price is expected to be stable with narrow adjustments. In the middle of the month, the group - farm slaughter volume has recovered, and the demand in the summer off - season is still weak. It is advisable to hold previous short positions [77][78]. - **Eggs**: The previous trading day saw the main contract of eggs close lower. The supply of eggs in July is expected to continue to increase year - on - year. It is advisable to consider a 9 - 10 reverse spread [79][80]. - **Corn and Starch**: The previous trading day saw the corn main contract and the corn starch main contract close higher. The domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance, and the consumption is warming up. The inventory pressure has decreased. It is advisable to observe. The production and demand of corn starch are both weak, and it mainly follows the corn market [81][82]. 3.9 Logs - **Logs**: The previous trading day saw the main 2509 contract of logs close higher. It is expected to oscillate and adjust before the first delivery. The main 09 and far - month contracts are mainly influenced by positive sentiment, but the actual quoted price of standard products has not increased significantly [83][86].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report analyzes various futures markets, including bonds, stocks, precious metals, steel, energy, and agricultural products. It provides insights into market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and price movements, and offers corresponding investment strategies for each market [5][8][10]. Summary by Category Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, most bond futures closed down, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, and 5 - year contracts falling, and the 2 - year contract rising. The central bank conducted 520.1 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 444.6 billion yuan [5]. - **Policy and Economy**: The State Council's executive meeting focused on strengthening domestic circulation, and the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference emphasized expanding domestic demand. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and monetary policy is expected to remain loose [5][6]. - **Investment Strategy**: It is expected that there will be no trend - following market, and caution is advised [7]. Stocks - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results, with the CSI 300 and SSE 50 futures falling, and the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 futures rising [8]. - **Investment Strategy**: The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [8][9]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures closed down. The US PPI data in June was lower than expected [10]. - **Investment Strategy**: The long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is advisable to consider going long on gold futures [10][11]. Steel (Ribbed Bars and Hot - Rolled Coils) - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, ribbed bar and hot - rolled coil futures declined slightly. The spot prices of steel products were reported at certain ranges [12]. - **Supply - Demand**: The important meeting at the beginning of the month led to expectations of supply contraction, but the real - estate downturn and over - capacity still suppress prices. The market is in the off - season, and the price rebound space is limited [12]. - **Investment Strategy**: Investors can wait for short - selling opportunities after the rebound, take profits in a timely manner, and pay attention to position management. Light - position participation is recommended [12][13]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rose slightly. The spot prices of iron ore were reported [14]. - **Supply - Demand**: Policy expectations boosted prices, but the supply - demand pattern has weakened marginally. The price valuation is relatively high, and the short - term trend may turn to shock consolidation [14]. - **Investment Strategy**: Investors can look for low - buying opportunities, take profits on rebounds, and pay attention to position management. Light - position participation is recommended [14][15]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures declined slightly [16]. - **Supply - Demand**: The meeting at the beginning of the month led to supply contraction expectations, but the actual supply is increasing. The demand for coke is weak, but cost support exists [16]. - **Investment Strategy**: Investors can wait for medium - term short - selling opportunities, take profits in a timely manner, and pay attention to position management. Light - position participation is recommended [16][17]. Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures declined. The spot prices of ferroalloys were reported [18]. - **Supply - Demand**: The demand for ferroalloys has peaked in the short term, and the supply is still high. The price is under pressure, but the cost support is strengthening [18]. - **Investment Strategy**: If the spot losses continue to expand, investors can consider low - value call options [18][19]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil opened lower and fluctuated, supported by the 10 - day moving average [20]. - **Supply - Demand**: The decrease in US active rigs and summer oil demand support prices, but tariff frictions and sanctions on Russia restrict price increases [21]. - **Investment Strategy**: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities for the main crude oil contract [22]. Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil fluctuated upward after a continuous decline [23]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply of fuel oil is sufficient, the spot discount has widened, and trade frictions are negative for prices [24]. - **Investment Strategy**: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities for the main fuel oil contract [25]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures declined. The spot price in Shandong remained stable [26]. - **Supply - Demand**: The raw material cost has decreased, and the supply - demand is short - term loose. Wait for the market to stabilize before participating in the rebound [26]. - **Investment Strategy**: Wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [26][27]. Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. The Shanghai spot price remained stable [28]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply has increased, the cost support has weakened, and the demand is mixed. The inventory has decreased slightly [28]. - **Investment Strategy**: The market may be in a strong - side shock, and consider medium - term long - buying opportunities [28][29]. PVC - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, PVC futures declined. The spot price decreased, and the basis remained stable [30]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is excessive, the demand is weak, and the export is affected. The cost has decreased, and the profit has improved [30]. - **Investment Strategy**: The market is in the bottom - shock stage [30][33]. Urea - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, urea futures declined slightly. The spot price in Shandong remained stable [34]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is at a high level, the demand is limited, and the inventory is higher than expected [34]. - **Investment Strategy**: The short - term market is in shock, and a medium - term bullish view is recommended [34][35]. PX - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PX2509 contract fluctuated and adjusted. The PXN and PX - MX spreads were reported [36]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply - demand balance is tight in the short term, but the cost support from crude oil is insufficient [36]. - **Investment Strategy**: Participate cautiously, pay attention to crude oil price changes, and control risks [36]. PTA - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PTA2509 contract declined. The spot price and basis rate were reported [37]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply has increased, the demand has weakened, and the cost support from crude oil is insufficient. The processing fee is at a low level, and future production cuts may increase [37]. - **Investment Strategy**: Participate in the range, look for opportunities to expand the processing fee at low levels, and control risks [37]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures rose. The supply, inventory, and demand data were reported [38]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply pressure has been relieved, the inventory is at a low level, and there is support below [38]. - **Investment Strategy**: Participate in the range, pay attention to port inventory and import changes [38]. Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2509 contract declined. The supply, demand, and cost data were reported [39]. - **Supply - Demand**: The short - term fundamental drive is insufficient, some factories are reducing production, and the processing fee is gradually recovering [39]. - **Investment Strategy**: The short - fiber may fluctuate with the cost. Be cautious about the processing - difference recovery space, pay attention to cost changes and production - cut efforts, and control risks [39]. Bottle Chips - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the bottle - chip 2509 contract declined. The cost, supply, and demand data were reported [40]. - **Supply - Demand**: The raw material price support is insufficient, the supply has decreased due to more maintenance, and the demand is improving [40]. - **Investment Strategy**: Participate cautiously, pay attention to raw material price changes [40]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of soda ash declined. The production and inventory data were reported [41]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is at a high level, the demand is general, and the long - term supply - demand imbalance is difficult to improve. The market hopes for macro - news support [41]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is in a weak - stable shock [41]. Glass - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of glass declined. The production and market situation data were reported [42][43]. - **Supply - Demand**: The actual supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the market sentiment is weak. The price may rebound in the short term due to cost support [43]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price may rebound in the short term [43]. Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of caustic soda declined. The production, inventory, and profit data were reported [44]. - **Supply - Demand**: The production is increasing, the inventory is decreasing, and the market is affected by alumina price and supply. The overall support is limited [44][46]. - **Investment Strategy**: The short - term support is available, but the overall support is limited [44][46]. Pulp - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of pulp rose slightly. The supply, demand, and price data were reported [47][48]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is expanding, the demand is weak, and the market is in the off - season. The price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [48]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [48]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures rose. The market sentiment has improved [50]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply - demand pattern has not changed, the supply is strong, the consumption has improved, but the inventory is high. The price is difficult to reverse without large - scale capacity reduction [51]. - **Investment Strategy**: Investors should not chase the high price [51]. Copper - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper fluctuated slightly, supported by the 60 - day moving average. The spot price was reported [52]. - **Supply - Demand**: The US tariff on copper has been implemented, which has led to the return of refined copper and depressed the price. The price is expected to stabilize [52]. - **Investment Strategy**: Short - term long - buying for the main Shanghai copper contract [52][53]. Tin - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin fluctuated and declined. The supply and demand data were reported [53]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is tight, the consumption is good, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to be strong - side shock [53][54]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is expected to be strong - side shock [54]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel declined. The supply and demand data were reported [55]. - **Supply - Demand**: The consumption expectation is good, but the actual consumption is weak, and the inventory is relatively high. The price is expected to fluctuate [55]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate [55]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil futures rose. The spot prices were reported [56]. - **Supply - Demand**: The US soybean good - rate has increased, the domestic soybean arrival is high, the oil - mill profit is low, and the demand is mixed [56]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider long - buying opportunities for soybean meal at low levels; consider call options for soybean oil after the price decline [56][57]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil rose, following the trend of soybean oil futures. The export and inventory data were reported [58]. - **Supply - Demand**: The export has decreased, the inventory has increased, and the domestic inventory is at a medium - high level [58]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider expanding the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [58][59]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - **Market Performance**: Canadian rapeseed declined. The import and inventory data were reported [60]. - **Supply - Demand**: The import has decreased, and the inventory is at a high level [60]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider long - buying opportunities for the ratio of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal [60][61]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic cotton futures rebounded. The US and domestic supply - demand data were reported [62][63]. - **Supply - Demand**: The global supply - demand is expected to be loose, the domestic industry is in the off - season, and the downstream inventory is increasing [63]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider short - selling at high prices [63][65]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic sugar futures fluctuated. The Brazilian and Indian production and inventory data were reported [66]. - **Supply - Demand**: The Brazilian production increase expectation has decreased, and the domestic supply - demand contradiction is not sharp [66]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is in the range - shock stage, and it is advisable to wait and see [66][67]. Apple - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures rose slightly. The production and inventory data were reported [68][69]. - **Supply - Demand**: The production reduction expectation has been falsified, and the production is expected to increase slightly [68][69]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider short - selling at high prices [68][70]. Live Pigs - **Market Performance**: The national average price of live pigs declined. The regional price trends and supply - demand data were reported [71]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is increasing, the demand is weak in the off - season, and the price is expected to be stable with a narrow adjustment [71][73]. - **Investment Strategy**: Hold previous short positions and pay attention to the weight - reduction in the south [71][74]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: The average price of eggs in the main production and sales areas rose. The production and inventory data were reported [75]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is increasing, the demand is weak in the off - season, and the price may be under pressure in the short term [75][76]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider the 9 - 10 reverse spread [75][76]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, corn and corn - starch futures declined. The spot prices and inventory data were reported [77]. - **Supply - Demand**: The domestic supply - demand is approaching balance, the consumption is recovering, the inventory pressure is decreasing, and the import may increase [77][78]. - **Investment Strategy**: Wait and see for corn; corn starch follows the corn market [77][78]. Logs - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of logs rose. The cost, supply, and demand data were reported [79][80]. - **Supply - Demand**: The overseas export willingness has decreased, the domestic inventory is decreasing, and the price is expected to fluctuate and adjust before the first delivery [80][81]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate and adjust before the first delivery [81].

Report's Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The macroeconomic data in June was mixed. The domestic economy showed strong resilience, with robust industrial production, better-than-expected exports, and a comprehensive rebound in financial data. However, the upward pressure on price indices increased, the growth rate of real estate sales declined, and the rebound of the manufacturing PMI was weak. The domestic economy is in a state of having a bottom but lacking upward momentum, and the pressure on nominal GDP is higher than that on real GDP. Macroeconomic policies need to increase support to boost market confidence. "Boosting domestic demand and combating cut - throat competition" will be important policy approaches. Despite the twists and turns, the macroeconomy and asset prices in 2025 are expected to continue the upward repair trend [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Manufacturing PMI Continues to Rebound but Remains Weak - In June, the manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. Large - scale enterprises' PMI was 51.2%, up 0.5 percentage points; medium - sized enterprises' PMI was 48.6%, up 1.1 percentage points; small - sized enterprises' PMI was 47.3%, down 2.0 percentage points. Among the five classification indices of the manufacturing PMI, the production index, new order index, and supplier delivery time index were above the critical point, while the raw material inventory index and employment index were below it [4]. - The production index was 51.0%, up 0.3 percentage points, indicating accelerated production activities. The new order index was 50.2%, up 0.4 percentage points, showing improved market demand. The raw material inventory index was 48.0%, up 0.6 percentage points, indicating a narrowing decline in raw material inventory. The employment index was 47.9%, down 0.2 percentage points, showing a slight decline in employment. The supplier delivery time index was 50.2%, up 0.2 percentage points, indicating faster delivery [4][5]. - In May, the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage point. In June, it was 50.5%, up 0.2 percentage points. The construction business activity index in June was 52.8%, up 1.8 percentage points, and the service business activity index was 50.1%, down 0.1 percentage point. The rebound of the manufacturing PMI was weak, indicating that the recovery momentum of the domestic economy still needs to be strengthened [7]. 2. CPI Rose 0.1% Year - on - Year in April, and PPI Fell 2.7% Year - on - Year - In June 2025, the national CPI rose 0.1% year - on - year. Urban CPI rose 0.1%, rural CPI fell 0.2%. Food prices fell 0.3%, non - food prices rose 0.1%. Consumer goods prices fell 0.2%, service prices rose 0.5%. The CPI in the first half of the year fell 0.1% compared with the same period last year. The CPI fell 0.1% month - on - month. The core CPI excluding food and energy rose 0.7% year - on - year, reaching a seven - month high, showing signs of bottoming out [8][9]. - In June 2025, the national PPI fell 3.6% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month. The industrial producer purchase price fell 4.3% year - on - year and 0.7% month - on - month. In the first half of the year, the PPI fell 2.8% compared with the same period last year. Industries such as coal, ferrous metals, and petrochemicals had large year - on - year declines, dragging down the PPI. The "anti - cut - throat competition" policy is expected to improve the over - capacity situation and boost the PPI's recovery [11]. 3. Both Exports and Imports in June Were Better than Expected - In June, China's exports increased 5.8% year - on - year in US dollars, 1.0 percentage point faster than in May. Imports increased 1.1% year - on - year, up 4.5 percentage points from a decline in May. The trade surplus was $114.77 billion, an increase of $11.55 billion. Domestic exports showed strong resilience despite overseas tariff impacts [13]. - In June, China's exports to the US were $38.17 billion, with the year - on - year decline narrowing to - 16.1%. Exports to the EU were $49.22 billion, with a growth rate of 7.6%. Exports to ASEAN countries were $58.185 billion, up 16.8% year - on - year. Exports to Japan were $13.435 billion, up 6.6% year - on - year. Exports in the second quarter were better than expected, and exports in 2025 are likely to remain strong [15][16]. 4. Financial Data in June Rebounded Comprehensively, and the M1 - M2 Gap Narrowed Further - In the first half of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing was 22.83 trillion yuan, 4.74 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. By the end of June, the stock of social financing was 430.22 trillion yuan, up 8.9% year - on - year. The growth rate of social financing rebounded due to increased government bond issuance [18][19][24]. - In terms of resident credit, in May, short - term loans increased by 262.1 billion yuan, 15 billion yuan more than the same period last year, and medium - and long - term loans increased by 335.3 billion yuan, 15.1 billion yuan more than the same period last year. Consumption credit demand was weak, but mortgage loans were stable. In terms of enterprise credit, in May, short - term loans increased by 1160 billion yuan, 490 billion yuan more than the same period last year, and medium - and long - term loans increased by 1010 billion yuan, 40 billion yuan more than the same period last year. Enterprise confidence and expectations were weak, and financing demand was not strong [20][22]. - At the end of June, the balance of broad - money (M2) was 330.29 trillion yuan, up 8.3% year - on - year, and the balance of narrow - money (M1) was 113.95 trillion yuan, up 4.6% year - on - year. The M1 - M2 gap narrowed to 3.7%. M1 and M2 were in an upward trend [22]. 5. Industrial Production Was Stable, and the Consumption Growth Rate Slightly Declined - In June, the added value of large - scale industries increased 6.8% year - on - year in real terms and 0.50% month - on - month. From January to June, it increased 6.4% year - on - year. Industrial production remained at a relatively high level. In June, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 4,228.7 billion yuan, up 4.8% year - on - year. From January to June, they were 24,545.8 billion yuan, up 5.0% year - on - year. The growth rate of consumer goods was within a reasonable range, benefiting from consumption subsidies and trade - in policies [25][26]. - In the first half of 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 24,865.4 billion yuan, up 2.8% year - on - year. Manufacturing investment remained at a high level, while the growth rates of infrastructure investment and real - estate development investment further declined [27]. 6. The Growth Rate of Real Estate Sales Declined but Remained at the Bottoming - Out Stage - From January to June, the sales area of new commercial housing was 458.51 million square meters, down 3.5% year - on - year, and the sales volume was 4,424.1 billion yuan, down 5.5% year - on - year. In June, the growth rates of real - estate sales volume and area continued to decline but were still within a reasonable range. The construction, new - start, and completion areas of real estate were still in a downward trend. The inventory of commercial housing slightly decreased [29][31][33]. - In June, the real - estate market cooled in the second quarter, but it is still in an improving trend, including the stabilization of commercial - housing sales growth and a significant rebound in second - hand housing transactions. The real - estate market is at the bottoming - out stage. With the decline of the base, the year - on - year decline in the sales area and volume of commercial housing will further narrow. Real - estate policies still have room for further strengthening [36][37][39]. 7. Summary and Outlook - In general, the domestic economic data in June was mixed. Industrial production was strong, and exports maintained high growth. However, the recovery momentum of the domestic economy needs to be strengthened, the price index was weak, the real - estate market was still at the bottoming - out stage, and the endogenous consumption demand was weak. The macroeconomy is in a state of having a bottom but lacking upward momentum [40]. - The main factors affecting the poor perception of the macroeconomy and the repair of asset prices are the overall lack of market demand and the structural over - capacity in multiple industries, leading to downward pressure on the price index and weak recovery of corporate profits. "Boosting domestic demand and combating cut - throat competition" will be important policy approaches. In 2025, the macroeconomy and asset prices are expected to continue the upward repair trend, and patience is needed [40].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The macroeconomic recovery momentum remains to be strengthened, and it is recommended to be cautious about the Treasury bond market [6][7] - Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, it is still optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets and suggests going long on stock index futures [10][11] - It is expected that the long - term bull market trend of precious metals will continue, and it is advisable to go long on gold futures [13][14] - For steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils, wait for short - selling opportunities after the rebound [15] - For iron ore, pay attention to low - level buying opportunities and take profits in time [18] - For coking coal and coke, wait for suitable mid - term short - selling entry points [20] - For ferroalloys, consider low - level out - of - the - money call options if spot losses continue to widen [24] - For crude oil, pay attention to short - selling opportunities [27] - For fuel oil, pay attention to short - selling opportunities [29] - For synthetic rubber, wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [30][31] - For natural rubber, it is expected to be strongly volatile, and pay attention to mid - term long - buying opportunities [31][32] - For PVC, it may enter a bottom - grinding stage [33][34] - For urea, it is expected to be short - term volatile and bullish in the medium term [35][36] - For PX, it is in a short - term volatile adjustment, and participate cautiously [37] - For PTA, it may be under short - term volatile pressure, and participate in the range [38][39] - For ethylene glycol, participate in the range mainly and pay attention to port inventory and imports [40] - For short - fiber, it may follow the cost and fluctuate, and be cautious about the repair of processing margins [41][42] - For bottle chips, it is expected to follow the cost and fluctuate, and participate cautiously [43] - For soda ash, it is expected to be in a low - level volatile state in the short term [44] - For glass, it is expected to rebound in the short term [46] - For caustic soda, the alumina price is expected to be strongly volatile, and the overall support for caustic soda is limited [48][49] - For pulp, the pulp price is expected to fluctuate and sort out [50][51] - For lithium carbonate, do not chase the high price [53] - For copper, go long on the main contract in the short term [55][56] - For tin, the tin price is expected to be strongly volatile [57] - For nickel, the nickel price is expected to fluctuate [59] - For soybean oil and soybean meal, pay attention to long - buying opportunities for soybean meal after adjustment, and consider call options for soybean oil after the decline [60][61] - For palm oil, consider widening the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [64] - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, consider long - buying opportunities for the oil - meal ratio [66] - For cotton, it is recommended to short at high prices [69][70] - For sugar, it is recommended to wait and see [72] - For apples, pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices [74][75] - For live pigs, consider short - selling at high prices [77][78] - For eggs, consider a 9 - 10 reverse spread [81] - For corn and starch, it is advisable to wait and see for corn, and starch follows the corn market [83][84] - For logs, it is expected to fluctuate and adjust before the first delivery [87] Summary by Directory Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day, Treasury bond futures closed up across the board, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rising by 0.47%, 0.18%, 0.13%, and 0.04% respectively [5] - The central bank carried out 342.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 173.5 billion yuan on the same day [5] - The current macro - data is stable, but the economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the Treasury bond yield is at a relatively low level [6] Stock Index - The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends, with the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM falling by 0.24%, 0.64%, 0.12%, and 0.55% respectively [8][9] - The Central Urban Work Conference was held, and seven key tasks for urban work were deployed [9] - In the first half of the year, real estate development investment decreased by 11.2% year - on - year, and the real estate development climate index was 93.60 in June [9] Precious Metals - The previous trading day, the main contract of gold closed at 780.4, down 0.13%, and silver closed at 9,225, up 0.20% [12] - The US CPI in June increased year - on - year, and the core CPI was lower than expected [12][13] - The current global trade and financial environment is complex, and the long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue [13] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures declined slightly [15] - The early meeting triggered the expectation of supply contraction, but the real estate downturn and over - capacity still suppress the price [15] - The market is in the off - season, and the price rebound space is limited [15] Iron Ore - The previous trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated and sorted out [17] - Policy expectations boosted the price, but the supply - demand pattern has weakened marginally [17][18] - The price valuation is relatively high, and it may fluctuate and sort out later [18] Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fluctuated and sorted out [20] - The early meeting triggered the expectation of supply contraction, but the actual supply may increase [20] - The steel mill's iron - making output is falling, and the coke cost support is effective [20] Ferroalloys - The previous trading day, the main contracts of manganese - silicon and silicon - iron rose by 0.35% and 0.33% respectively [22] - The manganese ore shipment volume decreased, and the iron alloy production increased at a low level [23][24] - The short - term demand has peaked, and the supply is still excessive [24] Crude Oil - The previous trading day, INE crude oil declined significantly due to potential US sanctions on Russia [25] - Fund managers reduced their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options, and the number of US oil and gas rigs decreased [25] - The summer oil demand provides support, but tariffs and sanctions still restrict the price [26] Fuel Oil - The previous trading day, fuel oil declined significantly, hitting a new low [28] - The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market supply is sufficient, and the ARA region's inventory increased [28] - Trade frictions are negative for the fuel oil price [28] Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day, the main contract of synthetic rubber fell by 0.43%, and the raw material price decreased, with the profit turning positive [30] - The supply is relatively loose in the short term, and the demand is difficult to increase [30] - Wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [30][31] Natural Rubber - The previous trading day, the main contracts of natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber rose by 0.63% and 0.73% respectively [31] - The supply may increase, the demand is mixed, and the inventory is slightly reduced [31] - It is expected to be strongly volatile in the next week [31] PVC - The previous trading day, the main contract of PVC fell by 0.20%, and the supply - demand imbalance continues [33] - The production decreased slightly last week, and the demand in the off - season is weak [33] - It may enter a bottom - grinding stage [33][34] Urea - The previous trading day, the main contract of urea fell by 1.70%, and the supply is expected to be high in the next period [35] - The demand is limited, and the inventory is higher than expected [35] - It is expected to be short - term volatile and bullish in the medium term [35][36] PX - The previous trading day, the main contract of PX2509 fell by 0.89%, and the PXN and PX - MX spreads adjusted [37] - The PX load increased slightly, and some enterprises carried out maintenance [37] - The short - term supply - demand is tight, but the cost support is insufficient [37] PTA - The previous trading day, the main contract of PTA2509 fell by 0.63%, and the supply increased [38] - The polyester industry plans to cut production, and the demand weakened [38][39] - It may be under short - term volatile pressure [38][39] Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day, the main contract of ethylene glycol fell by 0.21%, and the overall start - up load increased [40] - Some devices were shut down for maintenance, and the inventory decreased [40] - The short - term supply - demand weakened, and the inventory is at a low level [40] Short - Fiber - The previous trading day, the main contract of short - fiber 2509 fell by 0.69%, and the device load decreased [41] - The demand is weak, and the cost drive is insufficient [41] - It may follow the cost and fluctuate [41][42] Bottle Chips - The previous trading day, the main contract of bottle chips 2509 fell by 0.54%, and the raw material price fluctuated [43] - The device maintenance increased, and the demand from downstream soft drinks and exports is good [43] - It is expected to follow the cost and fluctuate [43] Soda Ash - The previous trading day, the main contract of soda ash 2509 closed at 1214 yuan/ton, down 0.65% [44] - The production was flat last week, and the inventory increased by 2.98% [44] - The short - term market is expected to be low - level volatile [44] Glass - The previous trading day, the main contract of glass 2509 closed at 1071 yuan/ton, down 1.47% [46] - The number of production lines remained low, and the market price center moved up [46] - It is expected to rebound in the short term due to cost support [46] Caustic Soda - The previous trading day, the main contract of caustic soda 2509 closed at 2512 yuan/ton, down 0.59% [47] - The production increased slightly last week, and the inventory decreased [47] - The alumina price is expected to be strongly volatile, and the support for caustic soda is limited [48][49] Pulp - The previous trading day, the main contract of pulp 2509 closed at 5262 yuan/ton, up 0.57% [50] - The supply has an expansion tendency, and the downstream demand is weak [50][51] - The pulp price is expected to fluctuate and sort out [50][51] Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day, the main contract of lithium carbonate rose by 0.21% to 66,660 yuan/ton [53] - The supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, and the inventory is still high [53] - Do not chase the high price [53] Copper - The previous trading day, Shanghai copper rebounded after reaching the bottom, and the spot price decreased [54][55] - The US tariff on copper will be implemented on August 1, which may cause the price to fall and then rebound [55] - Go long on the main contract in the short term [55][56] Tin - The previous trading day, Shanghai tin fluctuated, and the mine supply is tight [57] - The downstream production is good, and the inventory is decreasing [57] - The tin price is expected to be strongly volatile [57] Nickel - The previous trading day, Shanghai nickel rose by 1.34% to 121,060 yuan/ton [58] - The solid - state battery concept boosts the demand expectation, but the actual consumption is not optimistic [58][59] - The nickel price is expected to fluctuate [59] Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The previous trading day, the main contracts of soybean meal and soybean oil rose by 0.03% and 0.30% respectively [60] - The US soybean growing conditions are good, and the domestic oil factory inventory is increasing [60] - Pay attention to long - buying opportunities for soybean meal after adjustment [60][61] Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil fell nearly 2% due to profit - taking and weak export data [62] - The domestic palm oil inventory is at a medium - high level in the past 7 years [63] - Consider widening the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [64] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed rose, and the domestic import of rapeseed oil and meal decreased in May [65] - The domestic rapeseed and related product inventories are at different levels [65] - Consider long - buying opportunities for the oil - meal ratio [66] Cotton - The previous trading day, domestic Zheng cotton fluctuated, and the US cotton production and inventory are expected to increase [67][68] - The domestic cotton planting area and output are expected to increase [68] - It is recommended to short at high prices [69][70] Sugar - The previous trading day, domestic Zheng sugar fluctuated, and the Brazilian sugar production is expected to decrease [71][72] - The Indian sugar inventory and production are at certain levels [72] - It is recommended to wait and see [72] Apples - The previous trading day, domestic apple futures rose slightly, and the production is expected to increase slightly [74] - The inventory is decreasing, and the price is stable [74] - Pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices [74][75] Live Pigs - The previous day, the national average price of live pigs was 14.54 yuan/kg, down 0.07 [77] - The supply and demand situation varies in different regions, and the price is expected to be stable and weak [77] - Consider short - selling at high prices [77][78] Eggs - The previous trading day, the average price of eggs in the main production areas rose to 2.78 yuan/jin, and the cost decreased [79] - The egg - laying hen inventory is increasing, and the supply is expected to increase in July [80] - Consider a 9 - 10 reverse spread [81] Corn and Starch - The previous trading day, the main contract of corn rose by 0.09% to 2295 yuan/ton, and starch fell by 0.19% to 2641 yuan/ton [82] - The port inventory decreased, and the supply - demand is approaching balance [83] - It is advisable to wait and see for corn, and starch follows the corn market [83][84] Logs - The previous trading day, the main contract of logs 2509 closed at 790.0 yuan/ton, up 0.38% [85] - The import freight may decline, and the inventory is basically stable [86] - It is expected to fluctuate and adjust before the first delivery [87]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views - The report is generally cautious about the trend of the bond market, optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets, and bullish on the long - term trend of precious metals. It also provides specific trading strategies for various futures products based on their fundamentals and market conditions [6][8][10]. Summary by Category Bonds - The previous trading day saw a full - line decline in bond futures. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the bond yield is at a relatively low level. It is expected that there will be no trend - based market, and investors should remain cautious [5][6][7]. Stock Index Futures - Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, domestic asset valuations are low, and the Chinese economy has sufficient resilience. The report is optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets and suggests considering going long on stock index futures [8][9]. Precious Metals - Given the complex global trade and financial environment, the "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends, and central banks' gold - buying behavior, the long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue. It is recommended to consider going long on gold futures [10][11]. Steel and Iron Products - **Thread and Hot - Rolled Coils**: The expectation of supply contraction has pushed up prices, but the downward trend in the real estate industry and over - capacity limit price rebounds. It is advisable to wait for the rebound to end and then consider short - selling opportunities [12]. - **Iron Ore**: Policy expectations have boosted prices, but the supply - demand pattern has weakened marginally, and the price is highly valued. Investors can focus on low - level buying opportunities [14]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The expectation of supply contraction has pushed up prices, but the over - capacity situation remains. Short - term long - positions and mid - term short - positions can be considered [15]. - **Ferroalloys**: The short - term demand has peaked, and the supply is in excess. If the spot losses continue to expand, investors can consider low - level out - of - the - money call options [17][18]. Energy Products - **Crude Oil**: The decline in US active rig counts and summer oil demand support prices, but tariff frictions and price caps on Russia restrict price increases. It is recommended to focus on short - selling opportunities for the main contract [19][20][21]. - **Fuel Oil**: The market has sufficient supply, and trade frictions are negative for prices. The main contract can be considered for short - selling [22][23][24]. Rubber Products - **Synthetic Rubber**: The raw material cost has decreased, and the supply - demand is short - term loose. Wait for the market to stabilize before participating in the rebound [25][26]. - **Natural Rubber**: It is expected to maintain a relatively strong oscillation. Consider mid - term long - positions [27][29]. Chemical Products - **PVC**: The oversupply situation continues, but the downward space is limited, and it may enter a bottom - oscillation stage [30][33]. - **Urea**: The short - term market fluctuates slightly, and it can be treated as bullish in the medium - term [34][35]. - **PX**: The short - term supply - demand balance is tight, but the cost support is insufficient. It is advisable to participate cautiously and pay attention to crude oil price changes [36]. - **PTA**: The short - term supply - demand fundamentals are expected to weaken, and it may oscillate under pressure. Interval trading is recommended [37]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The short - term supply - demand has weakened, but the low - level inventory provides support. Interval trading is the main strategy [38][39]. - **Short - Fiber**: The short - term fundamentals lack drive, and it may follow cost fluctuations. Be cautious about the repair space of processing margins [40]. - **Bottle Chips**: The raw material price oscillates, and the device maintenance increases. The market is expected to follow the cost oscillation [41][42]. - **Soda Ash**: The long - term oversupply situation is difficult to change, and the downstream demand is weak. The market oscillates with weak stability [43]. - **Glass**: The actual supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. Driven by the energy sector, it is expected to rebound in the short - term [44][45]. - **Caustic Soda**: The overall supply - demand is relatively loose, with obvious regional differences. The short - term price may oscillate strongly, but the overall positive support is limited [46][47][49]. - **Paper Pulp**: The supply has an expansion tendency, and the demand is weak. The pulp price is expected to oscillate [50][51]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The US tariff increase on copper has led to price fluctuations, and the short - term trend is uncertain [54]. - **Tin**: The supply is tight, and the demand is good. The price is expected to oscillate strongly [55]. - **Nickel**: The consumption expectation is improving, but the actual consumption is not optimistic. The price is expected to oscillate [56]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: The domestic soybean supply is abundant, and the cost provides support. Consider long - positions for soybean meal after adjustment and call options for soybean oil after a decline [57][58]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil inventory is higher than expected, and the domestic inventory is accumulating. Consider widening the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [59][60]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The Canadian crop weather has improved, and the price rebound is limited. Consider long - positions on the oil - meal ratio [61][62]. - **Cotton**: The global supply - demand is expected to be loose, and the July supply - demand report is negative. It is recommended to short at high prices [63][64][65]. - **Sugar**: The Brazilian production increase expectation has been adjusted downward, and the domestic supply - demand contradiction is not sharp. It is advisable to wait and see [66][67]. - **Apples**: The production reduction expectation has been falsified, and it is recommended to short at high prices [69][70]. - **Pigs**: The short - term price may be stable with a narrow adjustment, and it is advisable to short at high prices after observing the weight - reduction in the south [71][72][73]. - **Eggs**: The supply is expected to increase in July, and it is recommended to hold short - positions [75][76][77]. - **Corn and Starch**: The domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance, and the starch market follows the corn trend. It is advisable to wait and see [78][79][80]. - **Logs**: It is expected to oscillate and adjust before the first delivery [82][83].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The report analyzes various futures markets including bonds, stocks, precious metals, and commodities, and provides investment suggestions based on current market conditions and trends [5][7][11]. - For different commodities, it evaluates factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy impacts, and cost - profit situations to predict price movements and offer trading strategies [14][21][32]. Summary by Commodity Bonds - Last trading day, most bond futures closed down. The central bank conducted 84.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 5.07 billion yuan. Macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The bond yield is at a relatively low level. It is suggested to stay cautious as there may be no trend - following opportunities [5][6]. Stocks - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The Shanghai Stock Exchange released new regulations for the Sci - tech Innovation Growth Layer, and the Ministry of Finance issued a notice on insurance funds' long - term investment. Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [7][9][10]. Precious Metals - Last trading day, gold and silver futures rose. Trump announced new tariff policies, and the global trade - financial environment is complex. The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue due to factors like "de - globalization", "de - dollarization", central banks' gold purchases, and potential Fed rate cuts. It is recommended to consider going long on gold futures [11][12][13]. Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - Last trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures continued to rebound. An important meeting at the beginning of the month emphasized supply - side management, but the real - estate downturn and over - capacity still suppress prices. The price rebound may be limited in the off - season. Technically, the short - term upward trend may continue. Investors can wait for short - selling opportunities after the rebound and pay attention to position management [14]. Iron Ore - Last trading day, iron ore futures continued to rise. Policy expectations boosted the market, but the supply - demand pattern has weakened marginally. The price valuation is relatively high. Technically, it found support at the previous low. Investors can look for low - buying opportunities and take profits in time, with light - position participation [16][17][18]. Coking Coal and Coke - Last trading day, coking coal and coke futures rose significantly. The meeting at the beginning of the month led to supply - contraction expectations, but the actual production capacity is recovering. Coke demand from steel mills is weak, but cost support exists. Technically, the short - term trend may remain strong. Investors can consider short - term long - buying or wait for mid - term short - selling opportunities, with light - position participation [19][20]. Ferroalloys - Last trading day, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures declined. Manganese ore supply is increasing, and iron - alloy production is rising while demand is weak, resulting in supply surplus. The cost has limited downward space, and if spot losses continue to expand, low - value call options can be considered [21][22]. Crude Oil - Last trading day, INE crude oil oscillated downward. Fund managers reduced net long positions, and the number of oil and gas rigs decreased. Summer demand provides some support, but tariff frictions and price caps on Russia restrict price increases. It is advisable to look for short - selling opportunities in the main contract [23][24][25]. Fuel Oil - Last trading day, fuel oil declined significantly. The Asian fuel oil market has sufficient supply, and trade frictions are negative for prices. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities in the main contract [26][27][28]. Synthetic Rubber - Last trading day, synthetic rubber futures rose. Raw material prices decreased, and the profit margin turned positive. Supply is relatively loose in the short term. Wait for the market to stabilize before participating in the rebound [29][30]. Natural Rubber - Last trading day, natural rubber futures rose. It is expected to maintain a relatively strong oscillation next week. Supply is increasing, demand is mixed, and inventory is slightly decreasing. It is advisable to pay attention to mid - term long - buying opportunities [30][31]. PVC - Last trading day, PVC futures declined. The supply - demand imbalance persists, but the downward space may be limited, and it may enter a bottom - oscillating stage. Supply decreased slightly, demand is weak, and exports are affected by tariffs. The profit margin has improved [32][35]. Urea - Last trading day, urea futures declined slightly. The domestic urea market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, waiting for policy and demand to materialize. Supply remains high, demand is limited, and inventory is higher than expected. It is expected to be bullish in the medium term [36][37]. PX - Last trading day, PX futures declined. The supply - demand balance is tight in the short term, but the support from crude oil cost is insufficient. It will oscillate and adjust in the short term. Investors should participate cautiously and pay attention to crude oil price changes [38]. PTA - Last trading day, PTA futures declined. Supply increased, demand decreased, and the cost support from crude oil is weak. It may oscillate under pressure in the short term. Look for high - selling opportunities and control risks [39][40]. Ethylene Glycol - Last trading day, ethylene glycol futures declined. Supply increased, demand decreased, and inventory is accumulating but at a low level. The short - term supply - demand situation is weak, and it is advisable to participate in a range - bound manner and pay attention to inventory and import changes [41]. Short - Fiber - Last trading day, short - fiber futures declined. The fundamental driving force is insufficient, demand feedback is negative, and the supply load is high. It may oscillate with cost changes. Be cautious about the repair of processing margins and pay attention to cost and production - cut dynamics [42][43][44]. Bottle - Chip - Last trading day, bottle - chip futures declined. Raw material prices are oscillating, and production capacity is being adjusted through maintenance. Inventory is decreasing, and it is expected to oscillate with cost changes. Participate cautiously and monitor raw material prices [45]. Soda Ash - Last trading day, soda ash futures rose. Production is stable, inventory is increasing, and downstream demand is weak. The market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and the long - term supply - demand imbalance is difficult to resolve [46][47]. Glass - Last trading day, glass futures rose. The actual supply - demand situation has no obvious driver, but the price increased due to the pull of the energy sector and cost - support expectations. It is expected to rebound in the short term [48]. Caustic Soda - Last trading day, caustic soda futures rose slightly. Production is increasing, inventory is decreasing, and the alumina market is expected to oscillate upward. The overall support for caustic soda is limited [49][51][52]. Pulp - Last trading day, pulp futures rose. Supply is expanding, downstream demand is weak, and the market is in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate and adjust, and the trading atmosphere is light [53][54][55]. Lithium Carbonate - Last trading day, lithium carbonate futures declined. Although there are expectations of supply - side reform, the supply - demand surplus remains. Inventory is high, and prices are difficult to reverse before large - scale capacity clearance. Do not chase high prices [56]. Copper - Last trading day, Shanghai copper oscillated downward. The US announced a 50% tariff on copper exports to China, causing price fluctuations. The short - term trend is uncertain, and it is advisable to go long in the short term in the main contract [57][58][59]. Tin - Last trading day, Shanghai tin oscillated. The tin - ore supply is tight, and the overall supply is short. Downstream demand is good, and inventory is decreasing. It is expected to oscillate upward [60]. Nickel - Last trading day, Shanghai nickel declined. The nickel - consumption expectation is positive due to the solid - state battery concept, but the actual demand is weak, and the supply is in surplus. It is expected to oscillate [61][62]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Last trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil futures rose. US soybean production is affected by weather, and domestic supply is relatively loose. Consider long - buying opportunities for soybean meal after adjustment and call options for soybean oil after correction [63][64]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil prices rose. June inventory was higher than expected, and exports were lower than expected. Domestic palm oil inventory is decreasing. Consider expanding the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [65][66][67]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed prices declined. Domestic imports decreased, and inventory is at a high level. Consider long - buying opportunities for the oil - meal ratio [68][69]. Cotton - Domestic cotton futures oscillated. The USDA's supply - demand report is negative, and the global supply - demand is expected to be loose. It is advisable to short - sell at high prices [70][71][73]. Sugar - Domestic sugar futures oscillated. International sugar production expectations are adjusted downward, and domestic inventory is low. It is recommended to wait and see [74][75]. Apple - Apple futures oscillated. The expected production reduction is disproven, and there is a slight increase in production. Look for short - selling opportunities at high prices [77][79][80]. Live Pigs - The live - pig price is expected to be stable with a narrow adjustment. Supply is increasing in the middle of the month, and demand is weak in the off - season. Consider short - selling at high prices [81][82]. Eggs - Egg prices rose slightly, but the cost is high, and the profit is low. Egg production is increasing, and it is advisable to hold short positions [83][84][86]. Corn and Corn Starch - Corn and corn - starch futures declined. The domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance, and the inventory pressure is reducing. Corn - starch production and demand are weak, and it is advisable to wait and see [87][88][89]. Logs - Log futures rose slightly. Overseas export willingness is decreasing, and domestic inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate and adjust before the first delivery [90][91][92].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The bond market is expected to have no trend and should be treated with caution [7]. - The stock index is expected to perform well in the long - term, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [9]. - The precious metals market is expected to continue its long - term bull trend, and it is advisable to consider going long on gold futures [11]. - For steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils, investors can wait for shorting opportunities after the rebound [12]. - For iron ore, investors can focus on buying opportunities at low levels [14]. - For coking coal and coke, investors can consider short - term long opportunities and wait for mid - term shorting entry points [15]. - For ferroalloys, if the spot losses continue to widen, investors can consider low - level out - of - the - money call options [18]. - The crude oil market is expected to rebound and then decline, and it is advisable to wait and see [21]. - The fuel oil market has stabilized after a sharp decline, and it is advisable to wait and see [23]. - For synthetic rubber, investors can wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [26]. - For natural rubber, it is expected to be weak in the short - term, and investors can focus on mid - term long opportunities [28]. - The PVC market is expected to remain weak [31]. - The urea market is expected to be volatile in the short - term and bullish in the mid - term [32]. - The PX market is expected to be volatile in the short - term, and investors should participate with caution [33]. - The PTA market is expected to be under pressure in the short - term, and investors can consider shorting at high levels [35]. - The ethylene glycol market is expected to be weak in the short - term, and investors should participate in the range [36]. - The short - fiber market is expected to follow the cost and fluctuate, and investors should be cautious about the repair of the processing margin [38]. - The bottle - chip market is expected to follow the cost and fluctuate, and investors should participate with caution [39]. - The soda ash market is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term, and investors with long positions should control risks [42]. - The glass market is expected to rebound in the short - term [43]. - The caustic soda market is expected to have limited upward momentum in the short - term [45]. - The pulp market is expected to fluctuate and adjust [46]. - The lithium carbonate market has not changed its supply - demand pattern, and investors should not chase high prices [49]. - The copper market has high short - term uncertainty, and it is advisable to wait and see [52]. - The tin market is expected to be strong and fluctuate [53]. - The nickel market is expected to fluctuate [54]. - For soybean meal, investors can consider long opportunities at low - level support intervals; for soybean oil, investors can consider call options at support intervals after the decline [56]. - For palm oil, investors can consider expanding the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [58]. - For rapeseed oil and meal, investors can consider long opportunities for the oil - meal ratio [59]. - For cotton, it is advisable to short at high levels [62]. - The sugar market is expected to fluctuate in the range [66]. - For apples, investors can focus on shorting opportunities at high levels [68]. - For live pigs, it is advisable to try shorting at high levels [70]. - For eggs, it is advisable to hold short positions [72]. - For corn and starch, it is advisable to wait and see; corn starch follows the corn market [75]. - The log market is expected to fluctuate and adjust before the first delivery [78]. Summary by Related Catalogs Bonds - The previous trading day, bond futures closed down across the board. The central bank carried out 90 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 32.8 billion yuan. The Fed is divided on dealing with tariff risks, and Powell is taking a wait - and - see attitude [5]. - The Sino - US economic and trade relations are stable, the macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the bond yield is at a relatively low level. It is expected that there will be no trend and should be treated with caution [6][7]. Stock Index - The previous trading day, stock index futures were mixed. The government adjusted the basic pension for retirees. The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. However, the valuation of domestic assets is low, and China's economy has sufficient resilience. It is still optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets and advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [8][9]. Precious Metals - The previous trading day, gold and silver futures rose. The current global trade and financial environment is complex, and the "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. Central bank gold purchases support the price. If the US economy slows down, the Fed may cut interest rates, and it is advisable to consider going long on gold futures [10][11]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rebounded strongly. The important meeting triggered the expectation of supply contraction, but the real estate downturn and over - capacity still suppress prices. The market is in the off - season, and the rebound space is limited. Technically, the short - term trend may continue. Investors can wait for shorting opportunities after the rebound [12]. Iron Ore - The previous trading day, iron ore futures rose significantly. Policy expectations boosted the price, but the supply - demand pattern has weakened marginally. The valuation is relatively high. Technically, it was supported at the previous low. Investors can focus on buying opportunities at low levels [14]. Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rose significantly. The important meeting triggered the expectation of supply contraction, but the actual production is increasing. The cost of coke is supported. Technically, the short - term trend is strong. Investors can consider short - term long opportunities and wait for mid - term shorting entry points [15]. Ferroalloys - The previous trading day, manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures rose. The supply of manganese ore is increasing, and the inventory is low. The production of ferroalloys is rising, but the demand is weak. The inventory is high. In the off - season, the demand has peaked, and the price is under pressure. If the spot losses continue to widen, investors can consider low - level out - of - the - money call options [17][18]. Crude Oil - The previous trading day, INE crude oil rose strongly. The CFTC data showed that speculators reduced their net long positions. The number of US oil and gas rigs decreased. OPEC + will gradually increase production. It is expected that the rebound will encounter resistance and decline, and it is advisable to wait and see [19][21]. Fuel Oil - The previous trading day, fuel oil opened low and fluctuated. The premium of Asian ultra - low - sulfur fuel oil decreased, and the market was calm. The increase in Singapore's fuel oil inventory is negative, while the easing of tariff frictions is positive. It has stabilized after a sharp decline, and it is advisable to wait and see [22][23]. Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures rose. The raw material price decreased, and the profit turned positive. The supply and demand are short - term loose. The production capacity utilization rate is stable, but the demand from tire enterprises is weak. The inventory is high. It is advisable to wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [24][26]. Natural Rubber - The previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. The domestic production area was affected by rainfall, and the supply pressure increased. The demand was difficult to improve, and the inventory was high. It is expected to be weak in the short - term, and investors can focus on mid - term long opportunities [27][28]. PVC - The previous trading day, PVC futures rose. The production is expected to continue to decline, the demand has no sign of improvement, and the cost support is weak. It is expected to maintain a weak operation [29][31]. Urea - The previous trading day, urea futures rose. The supply is expected to remain high, the demand is expected to pick up, and the inventory is expected to decline. It is expected to be volatile in the short - term and bullish in the mid - term [31][32]. PX - The previous trading day, PX futures rose. The supply load decreased slightly, and the import increased. The short - term supply and demand improved slightly, and the balance remained tight. The cost support from crude oil was insufficient. It is expected to be volatile in the short - term, and investors should participate with caution [33]. PTA - The previous trading day, PTA futures rose. The supply load increased, and the demand load decreased. The short - term supply and demand fundamentals are expected to weaken, and the cost support from crude oil is insufficient. It is expected to be under pressure in the short - term, and investors can consider shorting at high levels [34][35]. Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures rose. The supply load increased, and the inventory increased. The demand from the polyester industry decreased. The short - term supply and demand turned weak, and the inventory is at a low level. It is advisable to participate in the range [36]. Short - Fiber - The previous trading day, short - fiber futures rose. The supply load decreased, and the demand was weak. The cost is volatile, and the short - term drive is insufficient. It is expected to follow the cost and fluctuate, and investors should be cautious about the repair of the processing margin [37][38]. Bottle - Chip - The previous trading day, bottle - chip futures rose. The raw material price is volatile, and the supply load decreased. The demand from the downstream beverage industry is increasing, and the export is high. It is expected to follow the cost and fluctuate, and investors should participate with caution [39]. Soda Ash - The previous trading day, soda ash futures rose. The production decreased slightly, and the inventory increased. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is weak. It is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term, and investors with long positions should control risks [40][42]. Glass - The previous trading day, glass futures rose. The actual supply and demand have no obvious driver, and the market sentiment is weak. It was driven up by the energy sector, and it is expected to rebound in the short - term [43]. Caustic Soda - The previous trading day, caustic soda futures rose. The production decreased, and the inventory decreased. The demand from the alumina industry is affected by maintenance and production reduction. The overall supply and demand are loose, and the regional difference is obvious. It is expected to have limited upward momentum in the short - term [44][45]. Pulp - The previous trading day, pulp futures rose. The supply is expected to expand, and the downstream demand is weak. The industry is in the off - season, and the inventory is high. It is expected to fluctuate and adjust [46]. Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures fell. The supply - demand pattern has not changed, the supply is strong, and the consumption has improved slightly, but the inventory is still high. Investors should not chase high prices [49]. Copper - The previous trading day, Shanghai copper futures fluctuated higher. The US will impose a 50% tariff on copper, which may impact China. The spot market is weak, and the overall demand is limited. The short - term trend is uncertain, and it is advisable to wait and see [50][52]. Tin - The previous trading day, Shanghai tin futures fluctuated. The supply of tin ore is tight, the processing fee is low, and the production is below the normal level. The consumption is good, and the inventory is decreasing. It is expected to be strong and fluctuate [53]. Nickel - The previous trading day, Shanghai nickel futures rose. The price of nickel ore weakened, the demand from stainless steel mills is weak, and the overall supply is in excess. It is expected to fluctuate [54]. Soybean Meal and Oil - The previous trading day, soybean meal and oil futures rose. The domestic soybean arrival is high, the oil mill profit is low, and the import cost is rising. The consumption of soybean meal and oil is expected to increase slightly. For soybean meal, investors can consider long opportunities at low - level support intervals; for soybean oil, investors can consider call options at support intervals after the decline [55][56]. Palm Oil - The previous trading day, Malaysian palm oil futures fell. The Malaysian palm oil inventory reached an 18 - month high in June. The domestic palm oil inventory is at a medium - high level. It is advisable to consider expanding the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [57][58]. Rapeseed Oil and Meal - The previous trading day, rapeseed oil and meal futures had different performances. The supply of rapeseed is tight, and the demand is weak. The inventory of rapeseed and meal is at a low level, and the inventory of rapeseed oil is at a high level. It is advisable to consider long opportunities for the oil - meal ratio [58][59]. Cotton - The previous trading day, domestic cotton futures fluctuated. The US cotton growth condition is good, and the export sales decreased. The domestic cotton production is expected to increase. It is advisable to short at high levels [60][62]. Sugar - The previous trading day, domestic sugar futures fluctuated. The Brazilian sugar production may increase, and the Indian sugar production is expected to decline. The domestic sugar production increased, and the inventory decreased. It is expected to fluctuate in the range [63][66]. Apples - The previous trading day, apple futures fluctuated. The apple production is expected to increase slightly this year, and the inventory is decreasing. It is advisable to focus on shorting opportunities at high levels [67][68]. Live Pigs - The previous trading day, live pig futures rose. The supply is expected to increase, the demand is weak in the off - season, and the cost is low. It is advisable to try shorting at high levels [69][70]. Eggs - The previous trading day, egg futures fell. The egg production is expected to increase in July, the demand is weak in the off - season, and the cost is low. It is advisable to hold short positions [71][72]. Corn and Starch - The previous trading day, corn futures fell slightly, and corn starch futures rose slightly. The domestic corn supply and demand are approaching balance, the policy is favorable, and the consumption is warming up. The inventory pressure has decreased, but the import may increase. Corn starch follows the corn market. It is advisable to wait and see [73][75]. Logs - The previous trading day, log futures rose. The sea freight has an expected decline, the arrival of logs is increasing, and the demand from construction sites is weak. It is expected to fluctuate and adjust before the first delivery [76][78].