Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The market has different trends and outlooks for various commodities and financial products. For example, the bond futures are expected to face pressure, the stock index is expected to have a gradually rising central fluctuation range, and the precious metals market is expected to have significant volatility [6][9][13] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed up across the board, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rising 0.07%, 0.03%, 0.04%, and 0.01% respectively. The central bank carried out 125 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 38.3 billion yuan [5] - **Outlook**: The macro - economic recovery momentum is weak, and the bond futures are expected to face pressure. It is recommended to remain cautious [6] Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures changed by - 0.15%, - 0.66%, 3.36%, and 3.06% respectively [8] - **Outlook**: Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, the low valuation and economic resilience, along with the inflow of incremental funds, are expected to drive the central fluctuation range of the stock index to gradually rise. It is recommended to hold previous long positions [9] Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the gold and silver main contracts rose 2.58% and 6.97% respectively. Eurozone and US PMI data were released [11] - **Outlook**: The global trade and financial environment is complex, and the "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. However, due to the recent sharp rise and increased speculation, the market volatility is expected to increase significantly. It is recommended to exit long positions and wait and see [13] Steel Products Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations. The spot prices of billets, rebar, and hot - rolled coils in different regions were given [15] - **Outlook**: In the medium term, the prices of finished products are dominated by industrial supply - demand logic. Rebar demand is in a downward trend, and the market is entering a demand off - season. The supply pressure has eased, and inventory consumption is fast. The prices are likely to continue weak oscillations, and investors can pay attention to opportunities to go long on pullbacks and manage positions carefully [15] Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, iron ore futures rose slightly. The spot prices of PB powder and Super Special powder were given. National pig iron daily output is low, and port inventory is rising [17] - **Outlook**: The supply - demand pattern of the iron ore market has weakened, but there are signs of stabilization in futures. Investors can pay attention to opportunities to go long on pullbacks and manage positions carefully [17] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rebounded significantly. The production of domestic coking coal is stable, and the demand for coke is weak [20] - **Outlook**: From a technical perspective, coking coal and coke futures may stop falling and rebound. Investors can pay attention to low - level buying opportunities and manage positions carefully [20] Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the manganese silicon and silicon iron main contracts rose 1.00% each. The spot prices of manganese silicon and silicon iron in different regions changed. The supply and demand of ferroalloys are in a certain situation, and the cost fluctuates slightly [22] - **Outlook**: Since the fourth quarter of 2025, the production of ferroalloys has declined, and the overall over - supply pressure persists. The cost is at a low level, and there is support for the low - level range. After a decline, investors can consider long positions in the low - level range [23] Energy Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, INE crude oil bottomed out and rebounded. Relevant data showed that speculators increased their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options, and the number of active oil and gas rigs increased. The US imposed new sanctions on Iran [24] - **Outlook**: CFTC data shows that US funds are still bullish on crude oil. The new US sanctions on Iran have pushed up crude oil prices. It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities in the main crude oil contract [25] Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, fuel oil rose significantly and stood above the moving average group. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil inter - month inverse spread widened, and the crack spread continued to rise [27] - **Outlook**: It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities in the main fuel oil contract [28] Chemical Products Polyolefins - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the PP market in Hangzhou showed higher quotes, and the LLDPE price in Yuyao rose. The market has a strong desire to test higher prices, but demand follow - up is insufficient [29] - **Outlook**: The polyolefin market will face a supply - demand tight situation this week, and prices may continue to rise in the short term due to factors such as rising crude oil prices and some production line overhauls. It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities [29] Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract rose 6.99%. Last week, the market rose, mainly supported by rising butadiene prices and high device operating rates, but limited by weak downstream demand. The inventory is accumulating [31] - **Outlook**: It is expected to show a strong oscillation, and it is necessary to pay attention to the price trend of butadiene, the recovery of downstream demand, and whether the device overhauls in January will be implemented [32] Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the natural rubber main contract and 20 - rubber main contract rose 3.29% and 3.27% respectively. The Shanghai spot price increased, and the basis was stable [34] - **Outlook**: It is expected to show a wide - range oscillation in the short term. The supply is shrinking, the cost support is still there, the demand of tire enterprises is expected to be weak, and the inventory is accumulating [34] PVC - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the PVC main contract rose 2.82%. The spot price increased, and the basis was stable. The current is the traditional off - season for PVC demand [36] - **Outlook**: Although it is in the traditional off - season, the policy expectation may lead to a strong oscillation in the short - term. In the medium - term, capacity clearance and export growth may improve the supply - demand situation. It is necessary to be vigilant about the uncertainty of demand [36] Urea - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the urea main contract rose 0.39%. The price in Shandong Linyi increased, and the basis was stable [40] - **Outlook**: The short - term urea price will maintain a strong oscillation, mainly driven by export demand and cost support. The supply is increasing, the demand of downstream products has different changes, and the inventory situation is given [40] PX - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the PX2603 main contract rose 2.93%. The PXN spread and PX - MX spread are at a certain level, and the PX load has declined [42] - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the PXN spread and short - process profit are stable, the PX start - up rate is increasing, and the market sentiment and cost - end crude oil may provide support. It is expected to oscillate and adjust. It is recommended to participate in the low - level range and be vigilant about the fluctuation of external crude oil [43] PTA - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the PTA2605 main contract rose 4.21%. The PTA device load is stable, the polyester load has decreased, and the processing fee has increased [44] - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the PTA processing fee has adjusted to the average level of previous years, and the upward space may be limited. The inventory is still low, the supply - end changes are small, the demand - end has a seasonal decline, but the cost - end and market sentiment boost the market. It is expected to oscillate, and it is necessary to operate carefully and pay attention to oil price changes [44] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract increased in volume and rose 5.99%, mainly driven by device production cuts and market sentiment. The overall and synthetic - gas - based ethylene glycol operating loads have decreased, and some devices have plans for production cuts or shutdowns [45] - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the supply - end of ethylene glycol has shrunk due to increased domestic and foreign device overhauls, and the market sentiment has been boosted. However, the port inventory still has pressure, and the pre - arrival volume at ports has increased significantly. There is obvious seasonal inventory accumulation pressure in January and February, and it may gradually enter the de - inventory channel in March. The upward space in the short - term may be limited. It is recommended to operate carefully and pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [46] Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the short - fiber 2603 main contract rose 3.45%. The short - fiber device load has increased slightly, the downstream terminal start - up rate has decreased locally, and the factory's raw material inventory has increased [47] - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the short - fiber supply remains at a relatively high level, the sales of polyester short - fiber have improved, the terminal factory is mainly digesting raw material inventory, and the low inventory may provide bottom support. It is mainly trading based on the cost - end logic and may oscillate with raw material prices. It is necessary to control risks and pay attention to cost changes and downstream pre - holiday inventory stocking [47] Bottle - Chip - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the bottle - chip 2603 main contract rose 4.4%. The bottle - chip processing fee has recovered, the factory load has decreased slightly, and there are plans for concentrated production cuts and restarts around the Spring Festival [48] - **Outlook**: Recently, the bottle - chip load has decreased slightly, and there are expectations of supply reduction around the Spring Festival. The export growth rate has increased, but the main logic is still on the cost - end. It is expected to oscillate with the cost - end. It is recommended to participate cautiously at low levels and pay attention to the implementation of overhaul devices [48] Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main 2605 contract closed at 1198 yuan/ton, rising 2.04%. The production has decreased slightly, the inventory is still accumulating, the equipment operation is increasing, the downstream demand is general, and the price is relatively stable [49] - **Outlook**: The off - season characteristics are significant. The short - term market lacks substantial support, and the price is expected to adjust steadily. It is recommended to be cautious [51] Glass - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main 2605 contract closed at 1064 yuan/ton, rising 1.33%. The number of production lines remains unchanged, the inventory is increasing, the trader's inventory is also increasing, the enterprise's shipment has slowed down, and the downstream demand is shrinking [52] - **Outlook**: The market sentiment is calm, the industry profit is low, the downward space is limited. It may rise due to a technical rebound in the short - term, but it is necessary to pay attention to the risk of returning to the fundamentals. It is expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival [52] Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main 2603 contract closed at 1945 yuan/ton, rising 0.15%. In winter, the supply is sufficient, the inventory is accumulating, the demand is weak, and the transportation in the north is affected by cold weather [53] - **Outlook**: The seasonal characteristics are significant. The pre - holiday trading sentiment may fluctuate due to the price fluctuation of alumina, but considering that the fundamentals of the middle and lower reaches have not improved significantly, it is recommended to be cautious [54] Pulp - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main 2605 contract closed at 5398 yuan/ton, rising 0.78%. The inventory is accumulating, the spot trading is light, and the prices of various types of pulp have declined to varying degrees [55] - **Outlook**: The downstream market's inventory stocking is approaching the end, and the port inventory is continuously accumulating. The market sentiment is pessimistic. Although the disk has a short - term technical rebound, it is necessary to treat it rationally [56] Carbonate Lithium - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the carbonate lithium main contract rose 7.31% to 181,520 yuan/ton. The macro - liquidity release has pushed up the commodity pricing center [57] - **Outlook**: The supply of lithium resources is elastic, the production is at a high level, the demand in the energy - storage and power - battery sectors has improved, the inventory is gradually decreasing, and the price has strong support below, but the short - term fluctuation may increase. It is necessary to control risks [57] Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 102,830 yuan/ton, rising 2.21%. The US economic data is divided, the Fed's long - term monetary policy is expected to be loose, and the global copper concentrate is in short supply [58] - **Outlook**: The demand is suppressed by high prices, the inventory is accumulating, and the short - term supply - demand is loose. It is expected to adjust at a high level. It is necessary to pay attention to the Fed's interest - rate meeting this week [59] Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 24,315 yuan/ton, rising 0.75%, and the alumina main contract closed at 2719 yuan/ton, falling 0.11%. The alumina market has a supply surplus, and the high aluminum price suppresses downstream demand [61] - **Outlook**: Both the upstream and downstream of the aluminum industry chain are under pressure in the short - term. It is expected to adjust at a high level [61] Zinc - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 24,690 yuan/ton, rising 0.51%. The domestic refined zinc production has increased, the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory has increased slightly [63] - **Outlook**: The zinc price lacks the momentum to continue rising and is unlikely to fall sharply. It is expected to oscillate and adjust [64] Lead - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai lead main contract closed at 17,145 yuan/ton, rising 0.29%. The lead concentrate processing fee is low, the supply and demand are both weak, and the inventory is increasing slightly [66] - **Outlook**: The fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and the lead price is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation [66] Tin - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai tin main contract rose 6.56% to 447,140 yuan/ton. The exchange has introduced cooling measures, and the geopolitical conflicts have pushed up the price center [68] - **Outlook**: The supply is tight, the demand has certain resilience, the inventory is decreasing, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly. It is necessary to control risks [68] Nickel - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai nickel main contract rose 1.2% to 146,760 yuan/ton. The "strategic reserve" metals have generally risen, and the Indonesian nickel policy has changed [70] - **Outlook**: The nickel ore price has support, but the stainless - steel market is in the off - season, the demand is weak, and the refined nickel is in an oversupply situation. It is necessary to pay attention to relevant Indonesian policies [70] Agricultural Products Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the soybean meal main contract and soybean oil main contract rose 0.07% each. The spot prices of soybean meal and soybean oil in different regions changed. The market demand expectation has improved, and the South American weather concerns provide support [71] - **Outlook**: The domestic soybean import has slowed down, the oil - mill crushing is in a loss, the cost support has been adjusted downward, the soybean meal demand has a moderate increase, and the soybean oil demand has slightly improved. It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities for soybean meal in the low - cost support range and consider exiting long - positions for soybean oil when the price rises [72] Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: The Malaysian palm oil has fallen due to profit

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and it is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. Treasury bond futures may face pressure, stock index futures' volatility center may gradually rise, and precious metals' market volatility may increase. Different commodity futures have different trends and investment suggestions based on their own fundamentals and market conditions [5][6][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts fell by 0.07%, 0.05%, 0.04%, and 0.02% respectively [5]. - **Open Market Operation**: On January 22, the central bank conducted 210.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 30.9 billion yuan [5]. - **Policy Expectation**: The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026. There is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year [5]. - **Outlook**: Treasury bond futures may face certain pressure, and a cautious attitude is recommended [6][7]. Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM changed by - 0.19%, - 0.51%, 0.53%, and 0.91% respectively [8]. - **Analysis**: Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is not strong and corporate profit growth is at a low level, domestic asset valuations are low, and the market sentiment has warmed up recently. It is expected that the volatility center of stock index futures will gradually rise, and previous long positions can be held [8][9]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the gold main contract closed at 1,087.58 with a decrease of 0.43%, and the silver main contract closed at 23,339 with an increase of 0.90% [10]. - **Analysis**: The global trade and financial environment is complex. The "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. However, the recent sharp rise in precious metals has led to a significant increase in speculative sentiment. It is expected that market volatility will increase significantly, and long positions can be liquidated and wait and see [10][11]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations. The spot prices of Tangshan billet, Shanghai rebar, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil were reported [12]. - **Analysis**: In the medium term, the prices of finished products are dominated by industrial supply - demand logic. The demand for rebar is declining year - on - year, and the market will enter the off - season. The supply pressure has been relieved, but the inventory is slightly higher than last year. It is expected that the prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil will continue to oscillate weakly. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips and manage positions carefully [12][13]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, iron ore futures oscillated and consolidated. The spot prices of PB powder and Super Special powder were reported [14]. - **Analysis**: The demand for iron ore has decreased month - on - month, and the port inventory has continued to rise. The supply - demand pattern of the iron ore market has weakened. Technically, it shows signs of stabilizing after a decline. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips and manage positions carefully [14][15]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rebounded slightly [16]. - **Analysis**: The production of domestic coking coal is stable, and the demand from downstream coking enterprises has increased. However, the demand for coke has decreased due to the decline in iron - making production. Technically, it may continue to be weak in the short term. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low levels and manage positions carefully [17][18]. Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main contracts of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon rose by 0.48% and 0.94% respectively. The spot prices also changed [19]. - **Analysis**: Since the fourth quarter of 2025, the production of ferroalloys has declined, and the demand is weak. The overall over - supply pressure continues. The cost is at a low level, and the downward space is limited. After a decline, investors can consider long positions in the low - level range [19]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, INE crude oil opened higher and oscillated, closing above the 5 - day moving average [20]. - **Analysis**: Speculators have turned to hold net long positions in US crude oil futures and options. The number of US oil and gas rigs has declined, and the US is expanding Chevron's oil production license in Venezuela. The market is concerned about the over - supply pattern. It is recommended to wait and see for the main crude oil contract [20][21][22]. Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated upward, closing above the moving average group [23]. - **Analysis**: The import of fuel oil in Asia from the West has increased, and the supply of low - sulfur fuel oil is in good condition. The price has risen due to increased downstream demand after the holidays and expected pre - Spring Festival demand. It is recommended to wait and see for the main fuel oil contract [24][25]. Polyolefins - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the Hangzhou PP market showed a rising trend, and the Yuyao LLDPE market adjusted prices [26]. - **Analysis**: The开工 rate has declined due to low - temperature and labor shortages, but the demand for modified PP in high - end manufacturing fields is growing steadily. The profit of external - propylene - purchasing enterprises has recovered, but PDH is still in deep losses. Investors can pay attention to long - position opportunities [26][27]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main synthetic rubber contract rose by 4.50%, and the Shandong mainstream price increased [28]. - **Analysis**: The rise in the synthetic rubber market is supported by the increase in butadiene prices and high device operation rates, but weak downstream demand limits the increase. It is expected to be mainly in a strong - oscillation pattern [28][29][30]. Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main natural rubber contracts and 20 - grade rubber contracts rose, and the Shanghai spot price increased [31]. - **Analysis**: The domestic rubber - tapping season is coming to an end, the demand for raw materials has increased, and the demand from downstream tire enterprises has improved. However, the inventory has continued to accumulate. It is expected to show a wide - range oscillation pattern [31][32]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main PVC contract rose by 2.21%, and the spot price increased [33]. - **Analysis**: In the short term, it is the traditional off - season for PVC, but the market may oscillate strongly under policy expectations. In the medium term, capacity clearance and export growth may improve the supply - demand situation. It is recommended to be cautious due to the uncertainty of demand [33][34]. Urea - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main urea contract rose by 1.30%, and the Shandong Linyi price increased [35]. - **Analysis**: In the short term, urea prices will maintain a strong - oscillation pattern, driven by export demand and cost support. The daily production is expected to remain high, and the demand from the compound fertilizer industry is increasing, while the demand from the board industry is decreasing [35][36]. p - Xylene (PX) - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the PX2603 main contract rose by 2.13%. The PXN spread and short - process profit are stable [37]. - **Analysis**: The PX operating rate has declined, and the cost of crude oil may provide support. In the short term, it may oscillate and adjust. Investors can participate in the range and pay attention to external crude oil fluctuations and macro - policy changes [37][38]. PTA - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the PTA2605 main contract rose by 2.75% [39]. - **Analysis**: The PTA processing fee has adjusted to the average level of previous years, and the upward space may be limited. The supply has not changed much recently, and the demand has decreased seasonally. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, with a slight inventory build - up in January and February. Investors should operate carefully and pay attention to oil - price changes [39]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main ethylene glycol contract rose by 4.51% [40]. - **Analysis**: The supply has decreased slightly due to increased domestic and foreign device maintenance, but the port inventory is under pressure, and the pre - arrival volume has increased significantly. It is expected to have pressure on the price in January and February. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [40][41]. Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the short - fiber 2603 main contract rose by 2.31% [42]. - **Analysis**: The supply of short - fiber remains at a relatively high level, and the sales have improved. The terminal factories are mainly consuming raw - material inventories. The low inventory may provide support at the bottom. It is expected to follow the cost - end logic and oscillate. Investors should control risks and pay attention to cost changes and pre - holiday stocking by downstream enterprises [42]. Bottle - Grade PET - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the bottle - grade PET 2603 main contract rose by 3.39%, and the processing fee has recovered [43]. - **Analysis**: The production load of bottle - grade PET has slightly decreased, and there are plans for concentrated production cuts around the Spring Festival. The export growth rate has increased, but the main logic is still the cost end. It is expected to follow the cost - end oscillation. Investors should participate carefully, control risks, and pay attention to the implementation of maintenance plans [43][44]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main 2605 soda ash contract closed at 1185 yuan/ton, rising 1.46% [45]. - **Analysis**: The supply - demand pattern of soda ash remains loose, and the price is stable. The production has decreased slightly, and the inventory has continued to accumulate. The downstream demand is average. It shows obvious off - season characteristics. It is recommended to be cautious as the market lacks substantial support in the short term [45][46]. Glass - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main 2605 glass contract closed at 1057 yuan/ton, rising 0.67% [47]. - **Analysis**: The supply - demand pattern of glass remains loose. The number of production lines remains unchanged, the inventory has increased, and the sales of enterprises have slowed down. It is expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival [47][48][49]. Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main 2603 caustic soda contract closed at 1948 yuan/ton, falling 0.51% [50]. - **Analysis**: Caustic soda shows obvious winter seasonal characteristics, with sufficient supply, high inventory, and weak demand. The market is in a weak state, and the outlook is not optimistic [50]. Pulp - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main 2605 pulp contract closed at 5380 yuan/ton, rising 0.34% [51]. - **Analysis**: The inventory of pulp has continued to accumulate, and the spot trading is light. The prices of coniferous and broad - leaved pulp have declined. The downstream procurement is coming to an end, and the market sentiment is pessimistic [51]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main lithium carbonate contract rose by 2.55% to 168,780 yuan/ton [52]. - **Analysis**: The macro - liquidity has increased, and the supply of lithium carbonate is still high, while the demand from the energy - storage and power - battery sectors has improved. The inventory has decreased, and the price has support at the bottom. However, the short - term volatility may increase [52]. Copper - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main Shanghai copper contract closed at 100,270 yuan/ton, falling 0.43% [53]. - **Analysis**: The inflation in the US is still high, the international situation is tense, and the supply of copper is extremely tight. However, the high price has suppressed the actual demand, and the inventory has continued to accumulate. The price is supported in the long term but restricted in the short term. The current risk is relatively high [53][54]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main Shanghai aluminum contract closed at 24,070 yuan/ton, rising 0.21%, and the main alumina contract closed at 2729 yuan/ton, rising 1.15% [55]. - **Analysis**: The supply of bauxite is abundant, the production of alumina is in excess, and the production of electrolytic aluminum is approaching the ceiling. The demand is suppressed in the short term, and the inventory has increased. It is recommended to short alumina on rallies before the Spring Festival. The long - term outlook for aluminum prices is still optimistic, but there may be a short - term correction [55][56]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main Shanghai zinc contract closed at 24,530 yuan/ton, rising 0.74% [58]. - **Analysis**: The supply of zinc raw materials is tight, the processing fee is under pressure, and the consumption will weaken seasonally. The market sentiment has cooled down, and the price may decline under pressure [58][59]. Lead - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main Shanghai lead contract closed at 17,100 yuan/ton, unchanged [60]. - **Analysis**: The supply of lead is restricted by the shortage of raw materials, and the demand is differentiated. The low inventory of primary lead provides support, while the off - season demand restricts the upward space. It is expected to oscillate within a range [60][61]. Tin - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main Shanghai tin contract rose by 1.7% to 417,250 yuan/ton [62]. - **Analysis**: The supply of tin is tight due to geopolitical conflicts and slow production recovery. The demand shows certain resilience supported by emerging fields. The inventory has decreased, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly. Attention should be paid to risk control [62]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main Shanghai nickel contract rose by 0.28% to 142,730 yuan/ton [63]. - **Analysis**: The macro - situation and Indonesian policies have affected the nickel market. The cost of nickel production is expected to rise, but the demand from the stainless - steel industry is weak, and the inventory is relatively high. The market is in an over - supply situation, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policies [63]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main soybean meal contract rose by 1.50% to 2768 yuan/ton, and the main soybean oil contract rose by 0.55% to 8084 yuan/ton. The spot prices also changed [64]. - **Analysis**: The import of soybeans has slowed down, the oil - mill crushing is in loss, and the cost support has decreased. The demand for soybean meal is growing moderately, and the demand for soybean oil has improved slightly. Investors can pay attention to long - position opportunities for soybean meal at low - cost support levels and consider exiting long positions for soybean oil on rallies [64][65]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil has reached a two - month high. The export of palm oil products in Malaysia has increased, and the production has decreased [66]. - **Analysis**: The production of palm oil may decline, the demand is strong, and the inventory in China is at a medium level. Investors can consider long - position opportunities after a correction [66][67][68]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - **Market Performance**: Canadian rapeseed has little change, and the import of rapeseed, rapeseed oil, and rapeseed meal in China has changed [69]. - **Analysis**: China will reduce the comprehensive tariff on Canadian rapeseed. The inventory of rapeseed meal has decreased, and the inventory of rapeseed oil has increased. Investors can consider holding positions to expand the spread between soybean and rapeseed products [69][70]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, domestic Zhengzhou cotton rebounded slightly, and the external - market cotton fluctuated [71]. - **Analysis**: The USDA supply - demand report is favorable to the market. The domestic cotton production is high, but the inventory build

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and it is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. The Treasury bond futures are under pressure, and caution is advised. The stock index is expected to have its fluctuation center gradually move up, and previous long positions can be held. The precious metals market is expected to have significant fluctuations, and long positions can be liquidated and wait and see. The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils may continue to be weakly volatile. The iron ore market's supply - demand pattern has weakened, and it may continue to correct in the short term. The coking coal and coke futures may continue to be weak in the short term. The ferroalloy has an overall over - supply pressure, and long positions in the low - level range can be considered after the price decline. The crude oil is expected to continue to rebound after the correction. The fuel oil, polyolefin, and synthetic rubber may have long - position opportunities. The natural rubber is expected to have a wide - range shock. The PVC may be strongly volatile. The urea is expected to be in a strong - oscillating state. The PX may be in an oscillating adjustment. The PTA may be in an oscillating operation. The ethylene glycol may face pressure in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see. The short - fiber may follow the raw material price to oscillate. The bottle - chip may follow the cost side to oscillate. The soda ash is suitable for range operation in the short term. The glass is expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival. The caustic soda price is expected to continue to be weak in the short term. The pulp market is under pressure due to inventory and weak demand. The lithium carbonate price may have greater short - term fluctuations. The copper price is at a high level and may be adjusted. The aluminum price may be adjusted at a high level. The zinc price may face pressure and correct. The lead price may maintain a range - bound oscillation. The tin price may be strongly volatile. The nickel is in an over - supply pattern. The soybean meal may have long - position opportunities in the low - cost support range, and the soybean oil may consider liquidating long positions when the price rises. The palm oil may consider long - position opportunities after the correction. The rapeseed meal and oil may consider reducing and holding the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal and between soybean oil and rapeseed oil. The cotton price is expected to be strongly volatile in the medium - to - long term. The sugar price is expected to be bearish in the medium - to - long term. The apple price is expected to be strongly volatile in the medium - to - long term. The live pig market may face supply pressure in the first quarter, and it is advisable to wait and see. The egg market can consider a positive spread strategy. The corn and starch may follow the corn market, and the supply pressure of corn needs to be further released. The log price is expected to be stable, and the futures may oscillate at the bottom [5][6][7][10][12][14][15][19][21][24][26][29][30][35][37][39][40][42][43][45][46][48][49][51][52][54][56][58][60][63][64][66][68][71][73][74][77][78][81][84][85][87][89]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, most Treasury bond futures closed higher. The central bank conducted 363.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 122.7 billion yuan. The People's Bank of China held a payment and settlement work meeting. The Treasury bond futures are under pressure due to factors such as the relatively low yield, the stable economic recovery, and the rising risk appetite [5][6]. Housing and Real Estate - The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development stated that the real estate market is city - based, and cities should use regulatory autonomy. The government will continue to implement policies according to cities, support reasonable financing of real estate enterprises and housing demand, and promote the stable operation of the real estate market [6]. Stock Index - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The central bank in Guangdong adjusted the minimum down - payment ratio for commercial housing loans. The domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, but the asset valuation is low, and the market sentiment has warmed up. It is expected that the fluctuation center of the stock index will gradually move up [7]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures rose. The global trade and financial environment is complex, which is beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. However, the speculative sentiment has heated up significantly, and it is advisable to liquidate long positions and wait and see [9][10]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures declined slightly. In the medium term, the prices are dominated by industry supply - demand logic. The demand for rebar is decreasing year - on - year, and the market is entering the off - season. The supply pressure has been relieved, and the inventory is slightly higher than last year. The prices may continue to be weakly volatile, and the hot - rolled coils may have a similar trend [12]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures continued to correct. The demand for iron ore has decreased, the supply is under pressure, and the port inventory is at a high level in the past five years. The supply - demand pattern has weakened, and it may continue to correct in the short term [14]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to fall. The production of coking coal is stable, and the demand from downstream coke enterprises has improved. The price increase of coke has been resisted by steel mills. The futures may continue to be weak in the short term [15]. Ferroalloy - On the previous trading day, the manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures had different performances. The supply of manganese ore has changed, the cost of ferroalloy has a narrow - range fluctuation, and the production and demand are both weak. The overall over - supply pressure continues, and long positions in the low - level range can be considered after the price decline [17][18][19]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated higher. Speculators have turned to hold net long positions in US crude oil futures, the number of oil and gas rigs has declined, and the US has adjusted its policy on Venezuelan energy. The crude oil is expected to continue to rebound after the correction [20][21]. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated upward. The export volume of fuel oil from Singapore has increased, but the high inventory restricts the increase. The price difference in the spot market has improved, and long - position opportunities can be considered [23][24]. Polyolefin - On the previous trading day, the PP market in Hangzhou had mixed quotes, and the LLDPE price in Yuyao declined. The northern cold weather and the southern labor shortage have affected the production, but the demand from high - end manufacturing for modified PP is stable. The profit of some enterprises has recovered, and long - position opportunities can be considered [25][26]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures rose. The market rise was supported by the increase in butadiene price and high device operation rate, but the downstream demand was weak. It is expected to be strongly volatile, and long - position opportunities can be considered [27][28][29]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. The domestic rubber - tapping season is coming to an end, the demand for raw materials has increased, the demand from the tire industry has improved, but the inventory has continued to accumulate. It is expected to have a wide - range shock [30][31]. PVC - On the previous trading day, PVC futures declined. It is in the traditional off - season, but the policy expectation may make the market strongly volatile. The production capacity utilization rate has decreased, the demand from downstream enterprises has declined slightly, the cost has changed, and the inventory has increased. It may be strongly volatile [32][33][35]. Urea - On the previous trading day, urea futures rose. The export demand and cost support make the price strongly oscillating. The daily production is high, the demand from the compound fertilizer industry is stable, and the inventory is lower than expected [36][37]. PX - On the previous trading day, PX futures rose. The PXN spread and short - process profit are stable, the operating rate has increased, and the cost side has support. It may be in an oscillating adjustment [38][39]. PTA - On the previous trading day, PTA futures rose. The supply has decreased slightly, the demand from the polyester industry has decreased, and the processing fee is at an average level. It may be in an oscillating operation [40]. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures declined. The supply may increase, the port inventory is under pressure, and the expected arrival at the port has increased significantly. It may face pressure in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [41][42]. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures rose. The supply is at a relatively high level, the sales have improved, and the terminal factory is digesting raw material inventory. It may follow the raw material price to oscillate [43]. Bottle - Chip - On the previous trading day, bottle - chip futures rose. The load has decreased slightly, there will be concentrated production cuts around the Spring Festival, the export growth rate has increased, and it may follow the cost side to oscillate [44][45]. Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, soda ash futures declined. The supply is abundant, the inventory has continued to accumulate, and the downstream demand is average. It is suitable for range operation in the short term [46]. Glass - On the previous trading day, glass futures declined. The supply is abundant, the inventory has decreased slightly, but the trader's inventory has increased. The market sentiment is stable, and it is expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival [47][48]. Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, caustic soda futures declined. The supply is sufficient, the inventory has continued to accumulate, and the demand is stable. The price is expected to continue to be weak in the short term [49]. Pulp - On the previous trading day, pulp futures declined slightly. The import pulp market sentiment is weak, the price trend is divided, the inventory is at a high level and continues to accumulate, and the demand from paper mills is weak [50][51]. Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures rose. The market trading sentiment has cooled down. The supply is abundant, the demand from the energy storage and power battery sectors has improved, and the inventory has decreased. The price may have greater short - term fluctuations [52]. Copper - On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper futures were flat. The macro - environment is complex, the supply is tight, but the high price has suppressed the demand, and the inventory has increased. The price is at a high level and may be adjusted [53][54][55]. Aluminum - On the previous trading day, Shanghai aluminum and alumina futures rose. The bauxite supply is abundant, the alumina market is oversupplied, the electrolytic aluminum production increase is limited, and the demand is affected by the off - season and high price. The price may be adjusted at a high level [56][57]. Zinc - On the previous trading day, Shanghai zinc futures rose. The raw material supply is tight, the processing fee is under pressure, the consumption is seasonally weak, and the price may face pressure and correct [58][59]. Lead - On the previous trading day, Shanghai lead futures rose. The supply of lead concentrate is tight, the production of primary lead is restricted, the demand is differentiated, and the inventory is low. The price may maintain a range - bound oscillation [60][61]. Tin - On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin futures rose. The supply is tight due to geopolitical conflicts and slow production resumption, the demand has some resilience, and the inventory has decreased. The price may be strongly volatile [62][63]. Nickel - On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel futures rose. The macro - environment is complex, the Indonesian nickel policy has changed, the supply cost may increase, but the downstream demand is weak, and it is in an over - supply pattern [64]. Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil - On the previous trading day, soybean meal futures declined slightly, and soybean oil futures rose. The South American soybean harvest is slow, the dollar has weakened, the domestic soybean import has slowed down, the oil - mill crushing is in a loss, and the demand for soybean meal and oil has different performances. The soybean meal may have long - position opportunities in the low - cost support range, and the soybean oil may consider liquidating long positions when the price rises [65][66]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil price has risen to a seven - week high. The export has increased, the production has decreased, the domestic import has decreased, and the inventory is at a medium level in the past seven years. Long - position opportunities can be considered after the correction [67][68]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed futures rose. China will reduce the comprehensive tariff on Canadian rapeseed. The domestic rapeseed, rapeseed oil, and rapeseed meal imports have changed, and the inventory has increased. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal and between soybean oil and rapeseed oil can be considered to be reduced and held [69][70][71]. Cotton - On the previous trading day, domestic cotton futures declined. The USDA supply - demand report is favorable, the domestic cotton production is high but the inventory accumulation is lower than expected, and the future planting area may be reduced. The demand is resilient. It is expected to be strongly volatile in the medium - to - long term, and long positions can be considered after the correction [72][73][74]. Sugar - On the previous trading day, Zhengzhou sugar futures declined. The Indian sugar production is expected to increase, the domestic sugar supply is sufficient, and there is pressure from domestic and imported sugar. The price may be bearish in the medium - to - long term [76][77][78]. Apple - On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures rebounded. The inventory is at a low level in recent years, the new - season apple production and quality have declined. It is expected to be strongly volatile in the medium - to - long term, and long positions can be considered after the correction [80][81][82]. Live Pig - On the previous trading day, live - pig futures declined. The northern and southern pig prices have declined, the supply is abundant, and the consumption change during the Spring Festival needs to be followed. The first - quarter supply may face pressure, and it is advisable to wait and see [83][84]. Egg - On the previous trading day, egg futures rose. The egg production cost has increased, the inventory of laying hens is at a high level, and the supply may be high in January. A positive spread strategy can be considered [85]. Corn and Starch - On the previous trading day, corn and corn - starch futures rose. The northern port inventory is low, the supply pressure needs to be released, the demand for corn starch has improved slightly, and it may follow the corn market [86][87]. Log - On the previous trading day, log futures rose. The supply is abundant, the inventory has different changes, the demand from downstream processing plants has increased. The price is expected to be stable, and the futures may oscillate at the bottom [88][89].

2026 年 1 月 21 日星期三 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67071029 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 021-61101854 地址： 电话： 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | 目录 | | --- | | 纸浆： 16 | | 碳酸锂： 16 | | --- | | 铜： 17 | | 铝： 17 | | 锌： 18 | | 铅： 18 | | 锡： 19 | | 镍： 19 | | 豆油、豆粕： 20 | | 棕榈油： 20 | | 菜粕、菜油： 21 | | 棉花： 21 | | 白糖： 22 | | 苹果： 23 | | 生猪： 24 | | 鸡蛋： 24 | | 玉米&淀粉： 25 | | 原木： 26 | | 免责声明 27 | 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘全线上涨，30 年期主力合约涨 0.52%报 111.490 元， 10 年期主力合约涨 0.13%报 108.180 元，5 年期主力合约涨 0.09%报 105.875 元，2 年 期主力合约涨 0.05%报 102.444 元。 公开市场方面，央行公告称，1 月 20 日以 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The bond futures are under pressure, the stock index is expected to rise, and the precious metals market will see increased volatility. Different commodities have different market trends and investment strategies based on their supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and macro - environment [6][8][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fixed - Income 3.1.1 Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day, most treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank conducted 158.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 7.22 billion yuan. The GDP in 2025 increased by 5% year - on - year. The social consumption, fixed - asset investment, and real estate data showed mixed trends. It's expected that treasury bond futures are under pressure, and investors should be cautious [5][6] 3.1.2 Stock Index Futures - The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The housing price in 70 large and medium - sized cities in December 2025 declined. Although the domestic economic growth is stable, the recovery momentum is weak, but the asset valuation is low, and the market sentiment is rising. It's expected that the stock index will gradually move up, and the previous long positions can be held [8] 3.2 Precious Metals - The previous trading day, gold and silver futures rose. The IMF raised China's economic growth forecast. The "anti - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to gold, but the recent sharp rise in precious metals has increased speculative sentiment. It's expected that the market will be more volatile, and investors should exit long positions and wait and see [10][11] 3.3 Base Metals 3.3.1 Steel Products (including Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil) - The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures were weakly volatile. In the medium term, the price of steel products is determined by industrial supply - demand. The demand for rebar is declining, and the market is in the off - season. The supply pressure has been relieved, and the inventory is slightly higher than last year. It's expected that the price will continue to be weakly volatile, and investors can look for opportunities to go long on dips [13] 3.3.2 Iron Ore - The previous trading day, iron ore futures fell sharply. The demand for iron ore is decreasing, the supply is increasing, and the port inventory is at a five - year high. The futures are under pressure at high levels and may correct in the short term. Investors can look for opportunities to go long on dips [15][16] 3.3.3 Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fell slightly. The production of coking coal is stable, and the demand for coke may increase, but the iron - making demand is decreasing. The futures' rebound is blocked. Investors can look for opportunities to buy at low levels [18] 3.3.4 Ferroalloys - The previous trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron futures fell. The supply of manganese ore is gradually recovering, and the cost of ferroalloys is fluctuating at a low level. The production of ferroalloys is at a low level in the past five years, and the over - supply situation has slightly eased. The price may rebound after a decline, and investors can consider long positions in the low - level range [20][21] 3.4 Energy 3.4.1 Crude Oil - The previous trading day, INE crude oil rose and then fell. The US is accelerating the expansion of Chevron's oil production in Venezuela, which is negative for oil prices, but the CFTC data shows that US funds are bullish on crude oil. The rebound of crude oil is expected to continue, and investors can look for long - position opportunities [22][23] 3.4.2 Fuel Oil - The previous trading day, fuel oil fluctuated downward. The inventory of heavy fuel oil in Fujairah increased, and the demand for low - sulfur fuel oil decreased. The increase in Asian fuel oil supply is negative for prices, but the stable crude oil price provides support. Investors can look for long - position opportunities [25] 3.4.3 Polyolefins - The previous trading day, the PP market in Hangzhou was partially loose, and the LLDPE price in Yuyao fell. The cold weather in the north and early employee return in the south have affected the construction, transportation, and production of small and medium - sized enterprises. However, the demand for modified PP in high - end manufacturing is growing. The profit of external - propylene - purchasing enterprises has recovered, but the PDH is still in deep loss. Investors can look for long - position opportunities [27][28] 3.5 Rubber 3.5.1 Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures fell. The market rose last week, supported by the rising butadiene price and high device operation rate, but limited by weak downstream demand. It's expected to fluctuate strongly, and the focus should be on butadiene price, downstream demand recovery, and device maintenance in January [30] 3.5.2 Natural Rubber - The previous trading day, natural rubber futures fell. The domestic rubber - tapping season is ending, the raw material price is rising, the demand from tire enterprises is increasing, but the inventory is accumulating. It's expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [32] 3.6 Chemicals 3.6.1 PVC - The previous trading day, PVC futures fell. It's in the traditional off - season, but the policy expectation may lead to a strong - side fluctuation. In the medium term, capacity clearance and export growth may improve the supply - demand. The supply has decreased, the demand is weak, and the inventory has increased. It's expected to fluctuate strongly [34] 3.6.2 Urea - The previous trading day, urea futures fell. In the short term, the price will be strongly volatile, driven by export demand and cost support. The supply is at a high level, the industrial demand for compound fertilizer is increasing, and the agricultural demand is limited. The inventory is lower than expected. It's expected to be strongly volatile [35] 3.6.3 PX - The previous trading day, PX futures rose. The PXN spread and short - term profit are stable, the PX operation rate is increasing, but the falling crude oil price is a drag. It's expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term, and investors can participate within the range [36] 3.6.4 PTA - The previous trading day, PTA futures rose. The supply has decreased slightly, the demand from polyester enterprises has decreased due to profit compression, and the inventory is low. It's expected to fluctuate in the short term and may accumulate inventory during the Spring Festival. Investors should operate carefully and pay attention to oil prices [37] 3.6.5 Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures fell. The supply is expected to increase, the port inventory is under pressure, and it's in the seasonal inventory - accumulation period. The price may be under pressure, and investors should wait and see [39] 3.6.6 Short - Fiber - The previous trading day, short - fiber futures rose. The supply is at a relatively high level, the terminal factories are digesting raw material inventory, and the inventory is at a low level, providing support. It's expected to follow the raw material price and fluctuate. Investors should control risks [40] 3.6.7 Bottle Chips - The previous trading day, bottle - chip futures fell. The processing fee has decreased, the supply is expected to decrease during the Spring Festival, and the export growth rate has increased. It's expected to follow the cost and fluctuate, and investors should participate carefully and pay attention to device maintenance [41] 3.6.8 Soda Ash - The previous trading day, soda ash futures fell. The supply is abundant, the inventory is accumulating, the downstream demand is general, and it's in the off - season. The downward space is limited, and it's advisable to operate within the range in the short term [42] 3.6.9 Glass - The previous trading day, glass futures fell. The supply - demand is in a loose pattern, the inventory of traders is increasing, and the demand from processing plants is weak. Affected by the cold wave, the sales may be affected. It's expected to fluctuate before the Spring Festival [43] 3.6.10 Caustic Soda - The previous trading day, caustic soda futures fell. The supply is sufficient, the inventory is accumulating, the demand is stable, and the cost has decreased. The profit has improved, but the future price is still not optimistic [44] 3.7 Pulp and Minerals 3.7.1 Pulp - The previous trading day, pulp futures fell. The import pulp market is weak, the price is differentiated, and the inventory is at a relatively high level and still accumulating. The spot trading is light, and the price is under pressure [45] 3.7.2 Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures fell. The market trading sentiment has cooled down. The supply is at a high level, the demand from the energy - storage and power - battery sectors is improving, and the inventory is decreasing. The price has strong support below, but the short - term volatility may increase [46] 3.7.3 Copper - The previous trading day, copper futures rose. The US inflation is high, the dollar index is rising, which suppresses the base metals. The copper supply is tight, but the high price has suppressed the demand, and the inventory is increasing. The price is at a high level, and the risk is greater than the opportunity [48] 3.7.4 Aluminum - The previous trading day, aluminum futures rose, and alumina futures fell. The supply of bauxite is abundant, the alumina market is in oversupply, the electrolytic - aluminum production increase is limited, and the demand is affected by the off - season and high price. The alumina can be short - sold at high levels before the Spring Festival, and the aluminum price may correct in the short term [50][51] 3.7.5 Zinc - The previous trading day, zinc futures fell slightly. The raw - material supply is tight, the consumption is seasonally weak, and the inventory has decreased slightly. Driven by the strong non - ferrous metals market, investors should be cautious about chasing up [53] 3.7.6 Lead - The previous trading day, lead futures fell slightly. The supply of lead concentrate is tight, and the demand is differentiated. The low inventory of primary lead and the cost of recycled lead support the price, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range [55] 3.7.7 Tin - The previous trading day, tin futures rose. The supply of tin ore is tight, the demand is supported by emerging fields, and the inventory is decreasing. It's expected to fluctuate strongly, and investors should control risks [57] 3.7.8 Nickel - The previous trading day, nickel futures rose. The global geopolitical situation is tense, and the nickel production quota in Indonesia has decreased. The nickel - ore price is stable, but the stainless - steel market is weak, and the refined - nickel inventory is at a relatively high level. The overall supply of primary nickel is in excess [58] 3.8 Agricultural Products 3.8.1 Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The previous trading day, soybean meal futures fell, and soybean oil futures rose. Brazilian soybeans are entering the harvest season, the soybean - pressing volume of oil mills has increased, and the inventory has decreased. The demand for soybean meal is growing, and the demand for soybean oil has improved. Investors can look for long - position opportunities for soybean meal at low - cost levels and consider exiting long positions for soybean oil when the price rises [59][60] 3.8.2 Palm Oil - Malaysian palm - oil futures were almost stable. The cancellation of Indonesia's B50 bio - fuel policy is negative, but the upcoming festival demand provides support. The export of Malaysian palm oil has increased, and the domestic inventory is at a medium level in the past seven years. Investors can consider long - position opportunities after a correction [61][62] 3.8.3 Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - China will reduce the comprehensive tariff on Canadian rapeseed. The import of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil has changed. The inventory of rapeseed meal is accumulating, and the inventory of rapeseed oil is decreasing. Investors can consider holding the position of expanding the spread between soybean and rapeseed products [64][65] 3.8.4 Cotton - The previous trading day, domestic cotton futures fell. The USDA supply - demand report is positive, and the domestic cotton harvest is good, but the inventory accumulation is lower than expected. The future planting area in Xinjiang will be reduced, and the demand is resilient. The price is expected to be strong in the medium and long term, but the domestic valuation is relatively high in the short term. Investors can buy on dips [66][67] 3.8.5 Sugar - The previous trading day, sugar futures fell. India's sugar production is expected to increase significantly, and the domestic sugar supply is sufficient during the peak - pressing season. The import is also expected to be high in January. The upward space is limited after the previous rebound, and it's advisable to take a short - side operation in the long term [69][70] 3.8.6 Apples - The previous trading day, apple futures fell sharply. The inventory is at a low level in recent years, and the production and quality have declined. The price is expected to be strong in the long term, and investors can buy on dips [72][74] 3.8.7 Hogs - The previous trading day, hog futures fell. The northern market is stable, and the southern market is rising slightly. The supply in the first quarter is still under pressure, and investors should wait and see [76] 3.8.8 Eggs - The previous trading day, egg futures fell. The cost of egg production has increased, the inventory of laying hens is at a high level, but the supply is expected to decrease slightly. The profit is improving, and investors can consider a bull - spread strategy [77][78] 3.8.9 Corn and Corn Starch - The previous trading day, corn and corn - starch futures fell. The northern - port inventory is low, the sales progress in the northeast is fast, and the spot price is strong. The demand from deep - processing and feed enterprises has changed. The domestic corn supply and demand are basically balanced, and the corn - starch market may follow the corn market. Investors should wait for the release of supply pressure [79][80] 3.8.10 Logs - The previous trading day, log futures fell. The supply is abundant, the inventory has different trends, and the delivery is affected by downstream pre - holiday stocking. The supply - demand pattern varies between the north and the south. The price is expected to be stable, and the futures may fluctuate at the bottom [83][84]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The GDP growth target of 5% in 2025 was successfully achieved, but the growth rate declined quarter - by - quarter. The macro - economic data in December continued to fall, and the recovery momentum remained weak. Consumption, fixed - asset investment, and the real estate market were sluggish, while exports showed resilience and inflation data improved [3]. - A rational and objective view of the current macro - economy is needed. The transformation, adjustment, and bottoming - out of the real estate market require time, and the domestic economic recovery cannot be achieved overnight. More active macro - policies should be implemented to expand domestic demand and optimize supply [4]. - In the future, "expanding domestic demand and combating cut - throat competition" will remain important long - term policy measures. The financial market is in a state of "weak reality, strong expectation", and the market sentiment is continuously improving. In 2026, the macro - economy and asset prices are expected to continue the upward repair trend, but patience is required [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Manufacturing PMI: A Slight Rebound but Still Weak - In December, the manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, entering the expansion range. Large - scale enterprises' PMI was 50.8%, up 1.5 percentage points; medium - sized enterprises' PMI was 49.8%, up 0.9 percentage points; small - sized enterprises' PMI was 48.6%, down 0.5 percentage points [6]. - Among the five sub - indices of the manufacturing PMI, the production index, new order index, and supplier delivery time index were above the critical point, while the raw material inventory index and employment index were below it. The production and new order indices increased, indicating accelerated production and improved market demand, but the employment index declined slightly [6]. - Overall, although the manufacturing PMI rebounded in December, the manufacturing sector was still weak, and the economic recovery momentum was insufficient [9]. 3.2 CPI and PPI: Inflation Continued to Improve - In December 2025, the national CPI rose 0.8% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. Food and non - food prices both increased, and among the eight major categories of prices, five increased and two decreased year - on - year [10]. - The PPI decreased 1.9% year - on - year in December, with the decline narrowing by 0.3 percentage points, and increased 0.2% month - on - month, with the growth rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points. The anti - cut - throat competition policy has achieved continuous results, and the PPI year - on - year growth rate is expected to turn positive in 2026 [12][15]. 3.3 Import and Export: Maintaining Resilience - In December, China's imports denominated in US dollars increased 5.7% year - on - year, and exports increased 6.6% year - on - year, both exceeding expectations. The trade surplus was 1,141.4 billion US dollars [16]. - Since the second quarter, exports have been stronger than expected, showing strong resilience. The real risk for China's foreign trade lies in the potential economic recession in the US and the slowdown of global economic growth [18]. - In December, China's exports to regions other than the US maintained steady growth, and exports to ASEAN countries continued to replace those to the US [19]. 3.4 Credit: Weak Resident Credit Demand and Declining M1 Growth - At the end of 2025, the stock of social financing scale was 442.12 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. The annual increment of social financing scale was 35.6 trillion yuan, 3.34 trillion yuan more than the previous year [20][21]. - In December, resident short - term and long - term loans both decreased significantly, indicating weak resident consumption and housing credit demand. Government bond issuance slowed down, M1 growth declined, but enterprise credit improved and M2 growth rebounded [24][25]. - Overall, the credit demand of the real economy was still weak, and the upward trend of M1 and M2 growth faced resistance [26]. 3.5 Industrial Production, Consumption, and Investment: Industrial Production Rebounded, while Consumption and Investment Growth Continued to Decline - In December 2025, the added value of large - scale industrial enterprises increased 5.2% year - on - year and 0.49% month - on - month. For the whole year of 2025, it increased 5.9% compared with the previous year [27]. - In December, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased 0.9% year - on - year. After excluding the impact of national subsidies, consumption in 2025 was weak, indicating insufficient domestic demand. Further consumption - promotion policies may be introduced in 2026 [27][28]. - In 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased 3.8% year - on - year. The growth rates of manufacturing investment, infrastructure investment, and real estate development investment all continued to decline [32]. 3.6 Real Estate Market: Continued Downtrend - In 2025, the sales area and sales volume of newly built commercial housing decreased by 8.7% and 12.6% respectively year - on - year. The real estate development investment decreased 17.2% year - on - year [31][32]. - The new construction, construction, and completion of real estate all declined further. The real estate development climate index continued to fall in December [35][36]. - The real estate market is currently at the bottom stage. With the decline of the base, the year - on - year decline of sales area and sales volume is gradually narrowing. The first half of 2026 is expected to be a critical period for the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize [38]. 3.7 Summary and Outlook - In December, the macro - economy was weak, with consumption, fixed - asset investment, and the real estate market remaining sluggish, while exports were resilient and inflation data improved [40]. - The main constraints on macro - economic recovery and asset price repair are insufficient domestic effective demand represented by real estate and consumption, and over - capacity in multiple industries. More policy support is needed [40]. - The financial market is in a state of "weak reality, strong expectation". In 2026, the macro - economy and asset prices are expected to continue the upward repair trend, but one should track policy implementation details and wait for positive macro - economic signals [40].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and the bond futures are expected to face pressure, so it's advisable to stay cautious [6]. - The central electricity consumption in China reached 10.4 trillion kWh in 2025, and the stock index is expected to have its volatility center gradually move up, and previous long positions can be held [9][10]. - The global trade - financial environment is complex, and there is a significant speculative sentiment in precious metals. It is recommended to exit long positions and wait and see [13][14]. - The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils may continue to weakly fluctuate, and investors can look for opportunities to go long on dips [16]. - The iron ore market's supply - demand pattern has weakened, and short - term corrections may occur. Investors can go long on dips [18]. - The prices of coking coal and coke futures rebounded but faced resistance. Investors can look for low - level buying opportunities [21]. - After 2025 Q4, the ferroalloy has an overall over - supply pressure. One can consider long positions in the low - level range [24]. - The crude oil is expected to continue its rebound, and one can focus on long opportunities in the main contract [26]. - The increase in Asian fuel oil supply is bearish, but the stable cost of crude oil provides support. One can focus on long opportunities in the main contract [27]. - The new demand in high - end manufacturing supports the modified PP industry. The market is waiting for PDH maintenance, and one can focus on long opportunities in polyolefin [29]. - The synthetic rubber is expected to fluctuate strongly [33]. - The natural rubber is expected to show wide - range fluctuations [35]. - The PVC is expected to fluctuate strongly due to policy expectations and potential supply - demand improvement [36]. - The urea price will maintain a strong - side fluctuation in the short term driven by export demand and cost support [37]. - The PX is expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term. One can participate in the range and beware of external market risks [40]. - The PTA is expected to oscillate. Operate cautiously and pay attention to oil price changes [43]. - For ethylene glycol, due to supply increase and inventory pressure, it's advisable to observe cautiously [44]. - The short - fiber may fluctuate with raw material prices. Control risks and pay attention to cost and downstream stocking [46]. - The bottle - chip may follow the cost to fluctuate. Participate cautiously and pay attention to maintenance implementation [47]. - The soda ash should be traded within the range in the short term, paying attention to policy - driven market changes [49]. - The glass is expected to fluctuate before the Spring Festival [50]. - The outlook for caustic soda is not optimistic under the current supply - demand situation [52]. - The pulp market is under pressure from inventory and weak demand, and the price is expected to be weak [53]. - The lithium carbonate price may have increased short - term volatility, but there is strong support below [55]. - The copper price is at a high level and may adjust [57]. - The aluminum price is at a high level and may adjust [60]. - Be cautious when chasing the rise of zinc [62]. - The lead price will maintain range - bound fluctuations [65]. - The tin price is expected to fluctuate strongly, but control risks [66]. - The nickel is in an oversupply situation, and follow - up policies in Indonesia need attention [68]. - For soybean meal, one can look for long opportunities in the low - cost support range; for soybean oil, long positions can consider exiting on rallies [70]. - One can consider long opportunities in palm oil after corrections [73]. - One can consider reducing positions in the spread between soybean - rapeseed meal and oil [75]. - The cotton price is expected to be strong in the medium - and long - term. Buy on dips after corrections [77]. - The upward space for sugar is limited in the medium - and long - term, and the upward pressure is increasing [81]. - The apple price is expected to be strong in the medium - and long - term [86]. - For live pigs, it's advisable to wait and see for changes in market capital structure [87]. - For eggs, a positive spread strategy can be considered [88]. - The corn starch may follow the corn market. Wait for the release of corn supply pressure [90]. - The log price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [91]. 3. Summaries According to the Catalog Pulp - The previous trading day's main contract closed at 5362 yuan/ton, down 1.94%. The import pulp market sentiment turned weak, prices showed a divergent trend, and the inventory was at a relatively high level, continuing the cumulative trend. The spot trading was light [53]. Carbonate Lithium - The previous trading day's main contract fell 8.99% to 146,200 yuan/ton. The market trading sentiment cooled down. The supply and demand were both strong, and the inventory was gradually decreasing. The price had strong support below, but short - term volatility might increase [54][55]. Copper - The previous trading day's Shanghai copper main contract closed at 100,280 yuan/ton, down 1.56%. The supply was extremely tight, but high prices inhibited demand, and the inventory was increasing. The price was at a high level and might adjust [56][57]. Aluminum - The previous trading day's Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 23,945 yuan/ton, down 0.99%. The alumina supply was in significant excess, and the electrolytic aluminum inventory was increasing. The price was at a high level and might adjust [58][59]. Zinc - The previous trading day's Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 24,405 yuan/ton, down 2.09%. The raw material supply was tight, and the consumption was seasonally weak. Be cautious when chasing the rise [61][62]. Lead - The previous trading day's Shanghai lead main contract closed at 17,230 yuan/ton, down 2.07%. The supply was restricted, and the demand was differentiated. The price maintained range - bound fluctuations [63][64]. Tin - The previous trading day's Shanghai tin main contract fell 8.42% to 379,400 yuan/ton. The supply was tight, and the demand had certain resilience. The price was expected to fluctuate strongly [66]. Nickel - The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel main contract fell 3.1% to 139,890 yuan/ton. The cost was expected to rise, but the consumption was not optimistic, and it was in an oversupply situation [67][68]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The previous trading day's soybean meal main contract fell 0.76% to 2727 yuan/ton, and the soybean oil main contract rose 0.63% to 8016 yuan/ton. The soybean supply was relatively loose, the demand for soybean meal was growing moderately, and the demand for soybean oil improved slightly [69][70]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil rose for two consecutive weeks. The export increased, and the domestic inventory was at a medium level in the past 7 years. One can consider long opportunities after corrections [71][72]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian rapeseed rose. China will reduce the comprehensive tariff on Canadian rapeseed. The domestic rapeseed meal and oil inventories are decreasing. One can consider reducing spread positions [74][75]. Cotton - The previous trading day's domestic cotton futures fluctuated down. The USDA report was favorable, and the domestic supply was expected to be tight in the future, with demand showing resilience. The price was expected to be strong in the medium - and long - term [76][77]. Sugar - The previous trading day's Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated weakly. India had a strong production increase expectation, and the domestic market faced double - supply pressure. The upward space was limited in the medium - and long - term [79][81]. Apple - The previous trading day's domestic apple futures fell more than 2%. The inventory was at a low level in recent years, and the production and quality declined. The price was expected to be strong in the medium - and long - term [83][85]. Live Pigs - The previous trading day's main contract fell 0.42% to 11,980 yuan/ton. The supply in the first quarter might face great pressure, and it's advisable to wait and see [87]. Eggs - The previous trading day's main contract rose 0.39% to 3072 yuan/500kg. The supply in January was expected to be at a high level, and a positive spread strategy could be considered [88]. Corn and Starch - The previous trading day's corn main contract fell 0.13% to 2281 yuan/ton, and the corn starch main contract rose 0.04% to 2555 yuan/ton. The corn supply pressure needed to be further released, and the starch might follow the corn market [89][90]. Logs - The previous trading day's main contract closed at 778.5 yuan/ton, down 0.38%. The supply was abundant, and the market was stable. The price was expected to fluctuate at the bottom [91].

2026 年 1 月 16 日星期五 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67071029 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 021-61101854 地址： 电话： 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | 目录 | | --- | | 纸浆： 15 | | 碳酸锂： 16 | | --- | | 铜： 17 | | 铝： 17 | | 锌： 18 | | 铅： 18 | | 锡： 18 | | 镍： 19 | | 豆油、豆粕： 19 | | 棕榈油： 20 | | 菜粕、菜油： 21 | | 棉花： 21 | | 白糖： 22 | | 苹果： 23 | | 生猪： 24 | | 鸡蛋： 24 | | 玉米&淀粉： 25 | | 原木： 25 | | 免责声明 27 | 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘多数上涨，30 年期主力合约跌 0.08%报 111.190 元， 10 年期主力合约涨 0.11%报 108.035 元，5 年期主力合约涨 0.09%报 105.760 元，2 年 期主力合约涨 0.04%报 102.376 元。 公开市场方面，央行公告称，1 月 15 日以 ...

2026 年 1 月 15 日星期四 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67071029 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 021-61101854 地址： 电话： 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | | | | 碳酸锂： 17 | | --- | | 铜： 17 | | 铝： 18 | | 锌： 18 | | 铅： 18 | | 锡： 19 | | 镍： 19 | | 豆油、豆粕： 20 | | 棕榈油： 21 | | 菜粕、菜油： 21 | | 棉花： 22 | | 白糖： 23 | | 苹果： 24 | | 生猪： 24 | | 鸡蛋： 25 | | 玉米&淀粉： 26 | | 原木： 26 | | 免责声明 28 | 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘多数上涨，30 年期主力合约跌 0.04%报 111.270 元， 10 年期主力合约涨 0.08%报 107.930 元，5 年期主力合约涨 0.04%报 105.655 元，2 年 期主力合约持平于 102.334 元。 公开市场方面，央行公告称，1 月 14 日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了 2408 亿 元 7 ...

2026 年 1 月 14 日星期三 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67071029 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 021-61101854 地址： 电话： 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | 目录 | | --- | | 纸浆： 15 | | 碳酸锂： 16 | | --- | | 铜： 16 | | 铝： 17 | | 锌： 18 | | 铅： 18 | | 锡： 18 | | 镍： 19 | | 豆油、豆粕： 19 | | 棕榈油： 20 | | 菜粕、菜油： 21 | | 棉花： 21 | | 白糖： 22 | | 苹果： 23 | | 生猪： 24 | | 鸡蛋： 24 | | 玉米&淀粉： 25 | | 原木： 26 | | 免责声明 27 | 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘多数上涨，30 年期主力合约涨 0.28%报 111.350 元， 10 年期主力合约涨 0.06%报 107.850 元，5 年期主力合约涨 0.04%报 105.625 元，2 年 期主力合约持平于 102.330 元。 公开市场方面，央行公告称，1 月 13 日以固定利率、 ...