1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum is still weak, but different investment products have different trends. For example, the stock index is expected to have its fluctuation center gradually move up, while the treasury bond futures are expected to face some pressure [6][9]. 3. Summary by Category Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw most treasury bond futures close down. The 30 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts declined by 0.05%, 0.02%, and 0.03% respectively, while the 10 - year main contract rose by 0.03% [5]. - **Policy and News**: The central bank conducted 13.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on January 5th, with a net withdrawal of 468.8 billion yuan due to 482.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing. The 9 - department notice on promoting green consumption was released [5]. - **Outlook**: Treasury bond futures are expected to face some pressure, and caution is advised [6]. Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw mixed performance in stock index futures. The main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM rose by 2.26%, 2.55%, 3.11%, and 2.69% respectively [8]. - **Policy and News**: The China Securities Regulatory Commission held a symposium on promoting the cross - departmental work of the comprehensive prevention and control system for financial fraud in the capital market. It aims to improve the system, strengthen coordination, and enhance corporate governance [9]. - **Outlook**: The fluctuation center of the stock index is expected to gradually move up, and investors can choose the right time to go long [9]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the gold main contract close at 995 with a 1.78% increase, and the silver main contract close at 18,247 with a 6.87% increase [11]. - **Policy and News**: The Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari commented on the employment market, inflation, and economic outlook [11]. - **Outlook**: The market volatility is expected to significantly increase. It is advisable to exit long positions and wait and see [11]. Steel Products (Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw thread steel and hot - rolled coil futures weakly oscillate. The spot prices of Tangshan billet, Shanghai thread steel, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil were reported [13]. - **Supply and Demand**: The demand for thread steel is in a year - on - year decline, and the market will enter the off - season. The supply pressure has eased as the production is at a low level this year. The inventory is higher than last year but the consumption speed is fast. The hot - rolled coil has similar fundamentals [13]. - **Outlook**: The prices are likely to continue to weakly oscillate. Investors can look for short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds and manage their positions carefully [13]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw iron ore futures oscillate at a high level. The spot prices of PB powder and Super Special powder were reported [15]. - **Supply and Demand**: The national hot metal daily output has declined in the past two months. The import volume in the first 11 months of 2025 increased by 1.4% year - on - year, and the domestic production is lower than in 2024. The port inventory is at the highest level in the same period of the past five years [15]. - **Outlook**: The market supply - demand pattern is weak, but the futures may continue to be strong in the short term. Investors can look for short - selling opportunities at high levels and manage their positions carefully [15]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw coking coal and coke futures decline significantly [17]. - **Supply and Demand**: After the holiday, domestic coking coal production increased. The demand from downstream coke enterprises is weak, and the fourth - round price cut of coke procurement has been implemented. The blast furnace profit is low, and the demand for coke is weak [17]. - **Outlook**: The futures may continue to weakly oscillate in the short term. Investors can look for buying opportunities at low levels and manage their positions carefully [17]. Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the manganese - silicon main contract decline by 0.78% and the silicon - iron main contract decline by 1.37% [19]. - **Supply and Demand**: The manganese ore supply is gradually recovering, and the port inventory is slightly increasing. The cost of ferroalloys fluctuates slightly at a low level. The production of thread steel by sample steel mills is lower than in 2024, and the production of ferroalloys is at a low level in the past five - year period, but the inventory continues to increase [19]. - **Outlook**: After a decline, investors can consider long - position opportunities at low levels when the spot loss expands [20]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw INE crude oil decline significantly due to the possible development of Venezuelan oil resources by the US [21]. - **Policy and News**: The US may have captured the Venezuelan president, and the US oil production reached a record high in October. The OPEC meeting confirmed a suspension of production increase in the first quarter [21]. - **Outlook**: It is advisable to look for long - position opportunities in the main crude oil contract [22]. Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw fuel oil decline significantly and close below the moving average group. The Asian VLSFO spot discount narrowed, and the HSFO oscillated within a range [23]. - **Supply and Demand**: The Singapore fuel oil inventory is high, which is negative for prices. The spot discount narrowing and the possible increase in crude oil prices may support the fuel oil price [24]. - **Outlook**: It is advisable to look for long - position opportunities in the main fuel oil contract [25]. Polyolefins - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the Hangzhou PP market have mixed price movements, and the Yuyao LLDPE price increased [26]. - **Supply and Demand**: The production enterprises are actively reducing inventory, and the market price has stopped falling and rebounded, which is conducive to price stability [26]. - **Outlook**: It is advisable to wait and see for now [27]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the synthetic rubber main contract rise by 0.95%. The Shandong mainstream price increased, and the basis was stable [28]. - **Supply and Demand**: The price increase was supported by the rise in butadiene price and high device operating rate, but the weak downstream demand limited the increase. The inventory of domestic cis - polybutadiene rubber decreased [28][29]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate strongly [30]. Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the natural rubber main contract and 20 - rubber main contract rise by 1.06% and 1.14% respectively. The Shanghai spot price increased, and the basis slightly widened [31]. - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic supply has stopped, but the overseas pressure remains. The demand from tire enterprises is weak, and the inventory is seasonally increasing. The 20 - rubber delivery supply has expanded [31]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate [32]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the PVC main contract decline by 0.67%. The spot price was stable, and the basis slightly widened [33]. - **Supply and Demand**: It is in the traditional off - season. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak. The cost support is strong, and the social inventory is increasing [33][34]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate at a low level. Attention should be paid to changes in the supply side [33][34]. Urea - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the urea main contract rise by 1.43%. The Shandong Linyi price increased, and the basis was stable [35]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily output has slightly increased, and the agricultural demand is expected to increase. The demand from the industrial sector is weak. The inventory has decreased [35]. - **Outlook**: The downward space is limited [36]. PX - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the PX2603 main contract decline by 1.23%. The PXN spread and short - term profit are recovering [37]. - **Supply and Demand**: The PX load is stable, and the inventory is low. The crude oil price may be adjusted due to the US - Venezuela situation [37][38]. - **Outlook**: It may oscillate and adjust in the short term. It is advisable to participate with caution and pay attention to macro - policies and fundamental changes [38]. PTA - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the PTA2605 main contract decline by 1.87%. The processing fee has recovered [39]. - **Supply and Demand**: The PTA load has increased, and the polyester load has recovered. The export has increased. The cost of crude oil may be uncertain due to geopolitical situations [39]. - **Outlook**: It may oscillate in the short term. It is advisable to operate with caution and pay attention to oil price changes [39]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the ethylene glycol main contract decline by 2.51% [40]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply is expected to increase, the port inventory is increasing, and the demand support is slightly weakening [40][41]. - **Outlook**: It is advisable to wait and see and pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [41]. Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the short - fiber 2602 main contract decline by 1.25% [42]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply is at a relatively high level, and the terminal factories are mainly consuming inventory. The new orders in the weaving sector are weak [42]. - **Outlook**: It may oscillate following the raw material price. It is necessary to control risks and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [42]. Bottle - Chip - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the bottle - chip 2603 main contract decline by 1.46%. The processing fee is around 410 yuan/ton [43]. - **Supply and Demand**: The bottle - chip factory load has increased, and the export growth rate has increased. The supply - demand structure has slightly improved, but the cost is still the main influencing factor [43]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate following the cost. It is advisable to participate with caution and control risks [44]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the lithium carbonate main contract rise by 7.74% [45]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply is at a high level, and the demand from the energy - storage and power - battery sectors has improved. The inventory has decreased [45]. - **Outlook**: The price may be supported in the short term, but it is necessary to operate with caution as it is easily affected by news [45]. Copper - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the Shanghai copper main contract rise by 2.22% [46]. - **Supply and Demand**: The global copper supply may be tight due to strikes in Chile. The domestic consumption is in the off - season, and the inventory is increasing [46]. - **Outlook**: The price is at a high level. It is necessary to be cautious about chasing the rise [46]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the Shanghai aluminum main contract rise by 2.57%, and the alumina main contract decline by 0.72% [48]. - **Supply and Demand**: The alumina supply is in excess, and the electrolytic aluminum production is stable. The demand from processing enterprises is weak [48]. - **Outlook**: The price is at a high level. It is necessary to be vigilant about price retracement [48]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the Shanghai zinc main contract rise by 1.16% [50]. - **Supply and Demand**: The zinc concentrate processing fee is low, and the refined zinc production may decrease. The overseas supply - demand tension has eased [50]. - **Outlook**: It is necessary to be cautious about chasing the rise as the consumption off - season is approaching [50]. Lead - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the Shanghai lead main contract rise by 0.32% [52]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply from primary and secondary lead enterprises is weak, and the consumption is in the off - season. The inventory is low [52][53]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate within a range [54]. Tin - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the Shanghai tin main contract rise by 1.05% [55]. - **Supply and Demand**: The tin supply is tight due to geopolitical conflicts and slow production resumption in Wa State. The demand has some resilience [55]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate strongly [55]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the Shanghai nickel main contract rise by 0.71% [56]. - **Supply and Demand**: The Indonesian nickel policy may increase costs. The stainless - steel demand is weak, and the primary nickel is in an oversupply situation [56]. - **Outlook**: It is necessary to pay attention to policy changes [56]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the soybean meal main contract decline by 0.28% and the soybean oil main contract decline by 0.13% [57]. - **Supply and Demand**: The Brazilian soybean planting is almost completed. The soybean supply is relatively loose, and the demand for soybean meal is growing moderately, while the demand for soybean oil has slightly improved [57][58]. - **Outlook**: It is advisable to look for long - position opportunities in the cost - support range for soybean meal and long - position opportunities for call options at low levels for soybean oil [58]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw Malaysian palm oil rise slightly [59]. - **Supply and Demand**: The Malaysian palm oil inventory is expected to reach a seven - year high, and the export has decreased. The domestic import has increased [60]. - **Outlook**: It is advisable to wait and see for now [61]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - **Market Performance**: The Canadian rapeseed price increased by more than 1% [62]. - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil imports have changed, and the inventory of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil is at a relatively high and low level respectively in the past seven years [62]. - **Outlook**: It is advisable to wait and see for now [63]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the domestic Zhengzhou cotton first rise and then fall. The overseas cotton price rose by 1% [64]. - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic cotton production is expected to increase slightly, but the future planting area may decrease. The textile and clothing export has shown some resilience [65][66]. - **Outlook**: The cotton price is expected to be strong [66]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the Zhengzhou sugar oscillate and rebound, and the overseas raw sugar slightly rebounded [68]. - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic and Indian sugar production is expected to increase, and the supply pressure is increasing. The import volume has changed [69]. - **Outlook**: The upward space may be limited after the significant rebound [70]. Apples - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the domestic apple futures rise significantly [72]. - **Supply and Demand**: The apple inventory is at a low level in recent years, and the new - season production and quality have declined [73]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to be strong in the medium and long term [73]. Pigs - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the national average pig price remain unchanged. The main contract declined by 0.98% [75][76]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of large - scale farms may increase in January, and the demand has weakened after the holiday. The frozen - product inventory has decreased [75][76]. - **Outlook**: The supply may face great pressure in the first quarter. It is advisable to consider an inverse spread strategy [76]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main contract rise by 1.42% [78]. - **Supply and Demand**: The egg supply is expected to remain at a high level in January, but the supply may improve marginally. The consumption is weak after the New Year's Day [77][78]. - **Outlook**: It is advisable to consider a positive spread strategy [78]. Corn and Starch - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the corn main contract decline by 0.22% and the corn starch main contract decline by 0.44% [79]. - **Supply and Demand**: The North Port corn inventory is low, and the Northeast production area's grain - selling progress is fast. The

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the content. 2. Core Views - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to face some pressure, maintain a cautious stance [6][7]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The volatility center is expected to gradually move up, and investors can choose the right time to go long [9][10]. - **Precious Metals**: Market volatility will significantly increase, and investors can exit long positions and wait and see for now [12][13]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils**: Prices may continue the weak - oscillatory trend, and investors can focus on short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds [14]. - **Iron Ore**: The market supply - demand pattern is weak, and investors can focus on short - selling opportunities at high levels [16]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: May continue the weak - oscillatory trend in the short term, and investors can focus on buying opportunities at low levels [18]. - **Ferroalloys**: After the decline, investors can consider long - position opportunities at low levels after the spot losses expand [20]. - **Crude Oil**: The impact on the price is mixed, and the main contract should be temporarily observed [21][22]. - **Fuel Oil**: High inventory is bearish, while the narrowing of the spot discount provides support. The main contract should be temporarily observed [24][25][26]. - **Polyolefins**: Pay attention to long - position opportunities [27][28]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Expected to oscillate strongly [29][30]. - **Natural Rubber**: Expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern [31][32]. - **PVC**: Expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term, and the supply - demand situation may improve in the medium term [33]. - **Urea**: The downward space is limited [35][36]. - **Para - Xylene (PX)**: May oscillate strongly in the short term, and investors can consider participating cautiously at low levels [37][38]. - **PTA**: May oscillate strongly in the short term, and investors can consider cautious operations at low levels [39]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: It is recommended to wait and see cautiously [40]. - **Short - Fiber**: May oscillate strongly following the raw material prices, and investors should operate cautiously [41]. - **Bottle Chips**: Expected to oscillate following the cost side, and investors should participate cautiously [42]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: There is short - term support at the bottom, but prices are vulnerable to news, so investors need to operate cautiously [44]. - **Copper**: Expected to oscillate at a high level [45][46]. - **Aluminum**: Expected to oscillate at a high level [47][48][49]. - **Zinc**: Expected to maintain an oscillatory state [50][51]. - **Lead**: Expected to oscillate within a range [52][53]. - **Tin**: Expected to oscillate strongly [54]. - **Nickel**: The primary nickel is in an oversupply situation, and investors should pay attention to relevant policies in Indonesia [55]. - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: Soybean meal can focus on long - position opportunities in the low - cost support range, and soybean oil can focus on long - position opportunities for call options in the low - level range [57]. - **Palm Oil**: Temporarily wait and see [58][60]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Temporarily wait and see [61][62]. - **Cotton**: Expected to operate strongly [63][66][67]. - **Sugar**: The upward space may be limited [68][70][71]. - **Apples**: Expected to operate strongly in the medium and long term, but the short - term de - stocking is slow [72][73][74]. - **Hogs**: Consider waiting and seeing [75][76]. - **Eggs**: Consider the positive - spread strategy [77][79]. - **Corn and Starch**: Corn starch may follow the corn market, and wait for the supply pressure to be further released [80][83]. 3. Summary by Category Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. Throughout the year, the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts all had their worst annual performances [5]. - **Open - Market Operations**: On December 31, the central bank carried out 528.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 502.8 billion yuan [5]. - **PMI Data**: China's December official manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and comprehensive PMI all rose, indicating an expansion of business activities [5]. Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends [8]. - **Macro - Situation**: The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. Asset valuations are low, and market sentiment has warmed up [9]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, gold and silver main contracts closed down [11]. - **Influencing Factors**: The global trade and financial environment is complex, which is beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. However, the recent sharp rise has led to a significant increase in speculative sentiment [12]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations [14]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: In the long term, rebar demand is declining year - on - year. In the medium term, it is the demand off - season. Supply pressure has eased, but inventory is higher than last year [14]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures oscillated at a high level [16]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Iron ore supply is increasing, demand is weakening, and port inventory is at a five - year high [16]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fluctuated slightly [18]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Coking coal production is decreasing, and coke demand is weak due to steel mill production cuts [18]. Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron main contracts closed down [20]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply is slightly reduced, demand is weak, and inventory continues to accumulate. There is support at low levels [20]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil declined significantly [21]. - **Influencing Factors**: The US arrest of the Venezuelan president has mixed impacts on oil prices. OPEC has confirmed a suspension of production increases in the first quarter [21]. Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil declined significantly [23]. - **Influencing Factors**: High inventory in Singapore is bearish, while the narrowing of the spot discount provides support [24][25]. Polyolefins - **Market Performance**: The PP market in Hangzhou had some price increases, and the LLDPE price in Yuyao was adjusted slightly. Market sentiment improved [27]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Production enterprises actively reduced inventory, and market prices stopped falling and rebounded [27]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract closed down [29]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Raw material prices rose, production capacity utilization was high, but downstream demand was weak [29]. Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, natural rubber main contracts closed down [31]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply pressure from overseas exists, demand from tire enterprises is weak, and inventory is accumulating seasonally [31]. PVC - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PVC main contract closed up [33]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: It is the traditional demand off - season, supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weak [33]. Urea - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the urea main contract closed flat [35]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply is increasing slightly, agricultural demand is expected to grow, and industrial demand is weak [35]. Para - Xylene (PX) - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PX2603 main contract fell [37]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply is relatively stable, and the cost side may fluctuate due to geopolitical factors [37]. PTA - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PTA2605 main contract fell [39]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply is increasing, demand is recovering, and processing fees are rising [39]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract fell [40]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase, inventory is accumulating, and demand support is weakening [40]. Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2602 main contract rose [41]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply is at a relatively high level, and terminal demand is mainly to digest inventory [41]. Bottle Chips - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the bottle chips 2603 main contract fell [42]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply is increasing slightly, export growth rate is rising, and the cost side may be affected by geopolitical factors [42]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: Before the holiday, the lithium carbonate main contract rose [43]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply is at a high level, demand from the energy storage and power battery sectors is improving, and inventory is being reduced [44]. Copper - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai copper main contract rose slightly [45]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The processing fee for copper concentrate is falling, inventory is accumulating, and demand is in the off - season [45]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum and alumina main contracts rose [47]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Alumina supply is in excess, and aluminum processing enterprise operating rates are falling [47][48]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc main contract fell [50]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply is under pressure to decrease, and demand is in the off - season [50]. Lead - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai lead main contract fell [52]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply is weak, demand is in the off - season, and inventory is at a low level [52]. Tin - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the London tin main contract fell [54]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply is tight, and demand has some resilience [54]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the London nickel main contract rose slightly [55]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Production costs are expected to rise, but demand from the stainless - steel sector is weak [55]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the soybean meal main contract fell, and the soybean oil main contract rose [56]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Soybean supply is relatively loose, and the demand for soybean meal and soybean oil is gradually recovering [57]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil continued to decline [58]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Production may decline, exports are weak, and domestic inventory is accumulating [58][59]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - **Market Performance**: Canadian rapeseed prices oscillated [61]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil imports are changing, and inventory is being adjusted [61]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: Domestic Zhengzhou cotton decreased in positions, and overseas cotton prices faced pressure [63]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Domestic production is high, but inventory accumulation is less than expected, and demand is resilient [66]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: Zhengzhou sugar oscillated weakly, and overseas raw sugar prices fell [68]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Domestic new sugar supply is increasing, and import volume is expected to be high [70]. Apples - **Market Performance**: Domestic apple futures oscillated [72]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Inventory is at a low level, and production and quality have declined [72][73]. Hogs - **Market Performance**: The national average hog price fell [75]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply is increasing, and demand after the festival has declined [75]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: The main contract for eggs fell [79]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply is at a high level, but the supply side is gradually improving [77][79]. Corn and Starch - **Market Performance**: Corn and corn starch main contracts fell [80]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: New - season corn supply pressure is still there, and corn starch demand is slightly recovering [80][83].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and monetary policy is expected to remain loose. Treasury bond futures are under pressure, and caution is advised [7]. - The stock index is expected to have its fluctuation center gradually move up, and investors can choose the right time to go long [8][9]. - The precious metal market is expected to have significantly amplified volatility. Investors can exit long positions and wait and see [10][11]. - The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils may continue weak oscillations. Investors can focus on high - level short - selling opportunities during rebounds [12]. - The iron ore market has a weak supply - demand pattern, but the futures may continue to be strong in the short term. Investors can focus on high - level short - selling opportunities [14]. - Coking coal and coke futures may continue weak oscillations in the short term. Investors can focus on low - level buying opportunities [17]. - For ferroalloys, after a decline, investors can consider low - level long opportunities when the spot loss expands [20]. - For crude oil, due to the progress of the Ukraine peace plan and the double - holiday period, investors should watch more and trade less [21][22]. - Fuel oil may follow the decline of crude oil. The main contract should be temporarily observed [23][24]. - For polyolefins, investors should focus on long - buying opportunities [25]. - Synthetic rubber is expected to oscillate [28]. - Natural rubber may show a slightly strong oscillating trend in the short term [29][30]. - For PVC, pay attention to changes on the supply side [31][34]. - The downward space for urea is limited [35][36]. - PX may oscillate and adjust in the short term. Investors can pay attention to opportunities to participate at low levels [37]. - PTA may oscillate in the short term. Investors should operate cautiously and pay attention to oil price changes [38]. - Ethylene glycol may maintain an oscillating bottom - building pattern in the short term. Investors can participate in a range and pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [39]. - Short - fiber may follow the raw material price to oscillate. Investors should control risks and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [40]. - Bottle chips are expected to oscillate following the cost side. Investors should control risks [41]. - For lithium carbonate, investors should operate cautiously and control risks [43]. - Copper prices may run at a high level, but there may be a callback after the sentiment fades [44][45]. - Aluminum prices may oscillate at a high level [47][48]. - Zinc may maintain an oscillating state [49][50]. - Lead prices may oscillate within a wide range [51][53]. - Tin prices are expected to oscillate strongly [54]. - For nickel, pay attention to relevant policies in Indonesia [55]. - For soybean meal, investors can focus on long opportunities in the low - cost support range; for soybean oil, investors can focus on long opportunities for call options in the low - level range [56][57]. - For palm oil, investors should temporarily wait and see [58][60]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, investors should temporarily wait and see [61]. - Cotton prices are expected to run strongly [65][66]. - The upward space for sugar is limited [67][69]. - Apple prices are expected to run strongly in the medium and long term but may be dragged down in the short term [70][72]. - For live pigs, investors should continue to track the slaughter rhythm and consider waiting and seeing [73][74]. - For eggs, investors can consider a positive spread strategy [75][76]. - Corn starch may follow the corn market. Investors should wait for the release of supply pressure [77][78]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The central bank conducted a 482.3 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation on December 29, with a net investment of 415 billion yuan on the day [5]. - The current macro - economic recovery momentum is weak, the treasury bond yield is at a relatively low level, and the market risk preference has significantly increased. Treasury bond futures are under pressure [7]. Stock Index - The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. From January to November, the total operating income of state - owned enterprises increased by 1% year - on - year, and the total profit decreased by 3.1% year - on - year [8]. - The domestic economic recovery momentum is not strong, but the asset valuation is low, and the economy has sufficient resilience. The market sentiment has warmed up recently, and the index is expected to rise [8]. Precious Metals - The previous trading day, the main contracts of gold and silver fell. The current global environment is complex, which is beneficial to the value of gold, but the speculative sentiment has significantly increased [10]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations. In the medium term, the prices are dominated by the industrial supply - demand logic. The demand for rebar is declining, and the market is entering the off - season. The supply pressure has been relieved, but the inventory is higher than last year [12]. Iron Ore - The previous trading day, iron ore futures rose significantly. Since October, the daily output of molten iron has declined, the supply has increased, and the port inventory is at a high level. The supply - demand pattern is weak, but the futures may be strong in the short term [14]. Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures slightly corrected. The production of domestic coking coal has decreased, and the demand for coke has weakened. The futures may continue weak oscillations in the short term [16][17]. Ferroalloys - The previous trading day, the main contracts of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon rose. The supply of manganese ore has recovered, the cost of ferroalloys has fluctuated slightly, the production has declined, the demand is weak, and the inventory has continued to increase [19]. Crude Oil - The previous trading day, INE crude oil fell significantly. Mexico's crude oil production in November was lower than in previous years. The Ukraine peace plan has made progress, and investors should watch more and trade less during the holiday [21]. Fuel Oil - The previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated downward. Singapore's fuel oil inventory increased, and the cost of crude oil decreased. Fuel oil may follow the decline of crude oil [23]. Polyolefins - The previous trading day, the prices of PP and LLDPE in the market showed different trends. After the e - commerce activities ended, the demand for related products decreased, and the industry's average start - up rate was declining [24]. Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day, the main contract of synthetic rubber rose. It is supported by cost and demand in the short term. The raw material price has increased, the supply is abundant, the demand is mainly for rigid replenishment, and the inventory has increased [26][27]. Natural Rubber - The previous trading day, natural rubber futures fell. The supply in the Hainan production area is decreasing, the overseas supply is under pressure, the tire production capacity utilization rate has changed, the inventory is accumulating seasonally, and the delivery supply has increased [29]. PVC - The previous trading day, the PVC main contract rose. The supply exceeds demand, but the downward space is limited. The supply has decreased slightly, the demand of downstream products has decreased, the cost has decreased, and the profit has increased [31]. Urea - The previous trading day, the urea main contract closed flat. This week, the urea market is expected to fluctuate slightly. The industry's overall start - up has decreased, the demand of downstream products has changed differently, the cost is stable, and the profit has increased slightly [35]. PX - The previous trading day, the PX2603 main contract fell. The PXN spread and short - process profit are being repaired, the start - up is stable, but the cost of crude oil has decreased, and it may oscillate in the short term [37]. PTA - The previous trading day, the PTA2605 main contract fell. The supply has increased slightly, the demand has decreased, the export has increased, and the processing fee has recovered. It may oscillate in the short term [38]. Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract fell. The start - up load has increased, some devices have plans to stop or restart, the port inventory has increased, and the demand has weakened. It may maintain an oscillating bottom - building pattern [39]. Short - Fiber - The previous trading day, the short - fiber 2602 main contract fell. The supply is at a high level, the terminal factory's inventory has increased, the cost drive has strengthened, and it may follow the raw material price to oscillate [40]. Bottle Chips - The previous trading day, the bottle chips 2603 main contract fell. The processing fee is stable, the supply and demand structure has improved slightly, and it may follow the cost side to oscillate [41]. Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day, the main contract of lithium carbonate fell. The supply is high, the consumption has improved, the inventory has decreased, and the price is easily affected by news. Investors should operate cautiously [43]. Copper - The previous trading day, the Shanghai copper main contract fell. The US economic data is neutral to positive, and the domestic policy is positive. The copper concentrate processing fee has decreased next year, the inventory has increased, and the consumption is in the off - season. The copper price may run at a high level but may callback [44]. Aluminum - The previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum and alumina main contracts fell. The price of imported ore has decreased, the supply of alumina exceeds demand, the production of electrolytic aluminum is stable, the processing enterprise's start - up rate has decreased, and the inventory has increased. The aluminum price may oscillate at a high level [46][47]. Zinc - The previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc main contract fell. The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee is below the cost line, the production is likely to decrease, the consumption is in the off - season, the overseas supply has increased, and the inventory has decreased. It may maintain an oscillating state [49]. Lead - The previous trading day, the Shanghai lead main contract fell. The supply is weak, the consumption is in the off - season, and the inventory is low. The lead price may oscillate within a wide range [51]. Tin - The previous trading day, the tin main contract fell. The supply of tin ore is tight, the demand has certain resilience, and the inventory has decreased. The tin price is expected to oscillate strongly [54]. Nickel - The previous trading day, the nickel main contract fell. Indonesia's nickel policy has changed, the cost may rise, the supply of nickel ore is affected, the downstream demand is weak, the inventory is at a relatively high level, and it is in an over - supply pattern [55]. Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil - The previous trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil futures fell. Brazilian soybeans are growing well, the US soybean harvest pressure still exists, the soybean crushing volume is high, the inventory of soybean meal has increased, and the inventory of soybean oil has decreased slightly. The demand for soybean meal is growing moderately, and the demand for soybean oil has improved slightly [56]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil prices have fallen, but the decline is limited due to production decline and strong demand expectations. The export volume has increased, and the domestic inventory has accumulated. Investors should wait and see [58][60]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed is in a quiet trading mode. Domestic rapeseed, rapeseed oil, and rapeseed meal imports have different changes. The inventory of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil is in different states. Investors should wait and see [61]. Cotton - The previous trading day, domestic cotton futures fell, and the overseas market fluctuated. In 2026, Xinjiang will reduce the cotton planting area. The domestic cotton output has increased, the export decline has narrowed, the supply is expected to be tight, and the demand is resilient. The cotton price is expected to run strongly [62][65]. Sugar - The previous trading day, Zhengzhou sugar oscillated, and the overseas raw sugar rose slightly. The domestic sugar import in November decreased year - on - year, and Brazil's sugar export decreased slightly. The domestic new sugar supply pressure is increasing, and the upward space is limited [67][68]. Apple - The previous trading day, domestic apple futures oscillated. The apple inventory has decreased, the new - season output has decreased, and the quality has declined. The price is expected to run strongly in the medium and long term but may be dragged down in the short term [70][71]. Live Pigs - The previous day, the national average price of live pigs rose. The supply in the market is limited, the demand in the south is strong, the supply of large - weight pigs is decreasing, and the inventory of frozen products has decreased. Investors should continue to track the slaughter rhythm [73]. Eggs - The previous trading day, the price of eggs rose. The cost has increased, the inventory of laying hens is at a high level, the supply is expected to decrease in December, the demand may weaken after the New Year, and investors can consider a positive spread strategy [75][76]. Corn and Starch - The previous trading day, corn and corn starch futures rose. The northern port inventory is low, the sales progress in the northeast is fast, the import has decreased significantly, the demand is growing slightly, the corn starch inventory is at a high level, and it may follow the corn market [77][78].

2025 年 12 月 29 日星期一 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67071029 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 021-61101854 地址： 电话： 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | | | | 铅： | | 15 | | --- | --- | --- | | 锡： | | 16 | | 镍： | | 16 | | 豆油、豆粕： | | 17 | | 棕榈油： | | 17 | | 菜粕、菜油： | | 18 | | 棉花： | | 18 | | 白糖： | | 19 | | 苹果： | | 20 | | 生猪： | | 21 | | 鸡蛋： | | 22 | | 玉米&淀粉： | | 22 | | 免责声明 | | 24 | 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘全线上涨，30 年期主力合约涨 0.36%报 112.960 元， 10 年期主力合约涨 0.10%报 108.300 元，5 年期主力合约涨 0.05%报 106.050 元，2 年 期主力合约涨 0.03%报 102.548 元。 公开市场方面，央行公告称，12 月 26 日以固定利率、数量 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment ratings in the given content. Core Views - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to face some pressure, maintain a cautious stance [5][6]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The volatility center is expected to gradually move up, and investors can choose the right time to go long [8][9]. - **Precious Metals**: Market volatility will significantly increase, and investors can exit long positions and wait and see [10][11]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils**: Prices may continue to oscillate weakly. Investors can pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds and manage positions carefully [12][13]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand pattern is weak. Investors can pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high levels and manage positions carefully [15]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: May continue to oscillate in the short term. Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities at low levels and manage positions carefully [17]. - **Ferroalloys**: Overall surplus pressure persists. After a decline, investors can consider long positions at low levels when spot losses expand [20][21]. - **Crude Oil**: With high uncertainty in the market, it is advisable to watch more and trade less during the holiday season [24]. - **Fuel Oil**: The cost end is stable, but there is a large rebound space. It is recommended to wait and see [26][27][28]. - **Polyolefins**: The market is in a negative feedback stage, but the reduction of standard product supply may boost market sentiment. Investors can pay attention to long - buying opportunities [30][31]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Expected to oscillate [32][34]. - **Natural Rubber**: Expected to oscillate with a multi - empty game [35][36]. - **PVC**: The supply exceeds demand, and the downward space is limited. Pay attention to changes in the supply side [37][38]. - **Urea**: The market is expected to fluctuate narrowly, and the downward space is limited [38][39]. - **PX**: May adjust in a slightly stronger oscillatory manner in the short term. Pay attention to opportunities to participate at low levels [40]. - **PTA**: The medium - and long - term supply - demand outlook is good. Investors can consider participating at low levels following the cost end and control risks [41]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: May maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern. Investors can participate within a range and be cautious about the upside [42][44]. - **Short - Fiber**: May oscillate following raw material prices. Pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [45]. - **Bottle - Grade PET**: Expected to follow the cost end. The supply - demand structure has improved slightly [46]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: There is short - term support for prices due to the mismatch between supply and demand. Pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [47]. - **Copper**: Prices will remain at a high level, but be cautious about chasing the rise [48][49]. - **Aluminum**: Expected to oscillate at a high level [50][51]. - **Zinc**: Expected to oscillate and adjust [52][53]. - **Lead**: Expected to oscillate weakly within a range [54][55][56]. - **Tin**: Expected to oscillate in a slightly stronger manner [57]. - **Nickel**: The first - grade nickel is in an oversupply situation. Pay attention to relevant policies in Indonesia [58]. - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: Soybean meal can focus on long - buying opportunities in the low - cost support range, and soybean oil can consider long - buying opportunities for call options in the low - level range [59][60]. - **Palm Oil**: It is recommended to wait and see [61][63]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: It is recommended to wait and see [64][65]. - **Cotton**: Prices are expected to be strong [66][69][70]. - **Sugar**: After a significant rebound in the market, the upward space may be limited. It is recommended to wait and see [71][74][75]. - **Apples**: Prices are expected to be strong [76][77][78]. - **Hogs**: It is recommended to wait and see, and continue to track the large - weight hog slaughter rhythm and consumption changes [79][80]. - **Eggs**: Consider a positive spread strategy [81][82]. - **Corn and Starch**: Wait for the release of supply pressure. Corn starch may follow the corn market [83][84]. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: The main contracts of treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts fell by 0.24%, 0.02%, 0.03%, and 0.02% respectively [5]. - **Policy and Macroeconomic Situation**: The central bank carried out a 400 - billion - yuan 1 - year MLF operation, with 300 billion yuan of MLF maturing on the same day. The RMB against the US dollar has appreciated. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and monetary policy is expected to remain loose [5]. Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: The stock index futures showed mixed trends. The main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM rose by 0.32%, 0.27%, 0.97%, and 1.16% respectively [7]. - **Industry News**: In November 2025, domestic mobile phone shipments increased by 1.9% year - on - year, and 5G mobile phones accounted for 91.6%. From January to November, 2.58 million urban old - community renovation projects started nationwide, and 22 regions and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps completed the annual plan [7][8]. - **Market Analysis**: The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak, and corporate profit growth is low. However, asset valuations are low, and the economy has sufficient resilience. Market sentiment has warmed up, and incremental funds have entered the market. The uncertainty of Sino - US economic and trade relations has eased [8]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: The main contract of gold closed at 1,008.76, with a decline of 0.58%; the main contract of silver closed at 17,397, with a decline of 1.20% [10]. - **Market Analysis**: The complex global trade and financial environment and the trend of "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. Central bank gold - buying supports the price, but the recent sharp rise has led to a significant increase in speculative sentiment [10]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Performance**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures oscillated weakly. The price of Tangshan billet was 2,960 yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar was 3,180 - 3,310 yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3,260 - 3,280 yuan/ton [12]. - **Market Analysis**: In the medium term, prices are dominated by industrial supply - demand logic. The real - estate industry's downward trend has not reversed, and demand is in a year - on - year decline. The market will enter the demand off - season. Supply pressure has eased, but inventory is higher than last year, and the inventory consumption speed is fast [12][13]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: Iron ore futures oscillated and consolidated. The port spot price of PB powder was 788 yuan/ton, and that of Super Special powder was 670 yuan/ton [15]. - **Market Analysis**: Since October, the daily output of hot metal has declined. The supply - demand pattern is weak, with imports increasing year - on - year, domestic production lower than last year, and port inventory at the highest level in the past five years [15]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: Coking coal and coke futures oscillated narrowly [17]. - **Market Analysis**: For coking coal, production has decreased in December, and downstream procurement has increased. For coke, the third - round price cut of spot procurement has started. Coking enterprises' operations are stable, but environmental protection has increased restrictions. Steel mills' demand for coke has weakened [17]. Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: The main contract of manganese - silicon rose 0.48% to 5,846 yuan/ton, and the main contract of silicon - iron rose 0.85% to 5,692 yuan/ton. Tianjin manganese - silicon spot price fell 50 yuan/ton to 5,650 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia silicon - iron price remained flat at 5,270 yuan/ton [20]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply of manganese ore from Gabon has decreased, and the supply of Australian ore has returned to normal. The cost of ferroalloys has fluctuated narrowly at a low level. The production of ferroalloys has continued to decline, and demand is weak, but the overall surplus pressure persists [20][21]. Crude Oil - **Market News**: As of the week ending December 9, fund managers reduced their net short positions in US crude oil futures and options. The number of active oil and gas rigs in the US decreased for the second consecutive week. Barclays maintained its 2026 Brent crude oil price forecast at $65 per barrel, and the supply - demand imbalance is expected to widen [22][23]. - **Market Analysis**: The reduction of net short positions by US funds indicates short - covering. The US sanctions on Venezuelan oil tankers are beneficial to oil prices, but the Russia - Ukraine peace talks increase the uncertainty of oil prices. It is advisable to watch more and trade less during the holiday season [22][24]. Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: Fuel oil oscillated upward and closed above the 20 - day moving average [26]. - **Market Analysis**: The Asian fuel - oil market is generally stable, and the spot price difference of high - sulfur fuel oil remains at a discount. The cost end is stable, and there is a large rebound space [26][27][28]. Polyolefins - **Market Performance**: The low - end prices in the Hangzhou PP market rebounded slightly, and the LLDPE price in the Yuyao market increased by 30 - 120 yuan/ton [30]. - **Market Analysis**: Polyolefin production enterprises are expected to be generally stable with minor fluctuations. The supply - side pressure of standard products is expected to slow down slightly. Downstream factory operating rates are expected to decline, and they mainly replenish inventory at low prices. Near the end of the month and the year, enterprises have the intention to reduce inventory by lowering prices [30]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: The main contract of synthetic rubber rose 0.76%, and the mainstream price in Shandong was adjusted up to 11,750 yuan/ton, with the basis remaining stable [32]. - **Market Analysis**: The price of raw material butadiene has risen unexpectedly, providing strong cost support. The supply is abundant, but the demand from downstream tire enterprises is weak, and the inventory in mainstream warehouses has decreased, while the social inventory has continued to accumulate [32][33]. Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: The main contract of natural rubber rose 1.91%, and the 20 - rubber main contract rose 1.48%. The Shanghai spot price was adjusted up to around 15,400 yuan/ton, with the basis remaining stable [35]. - **Market Analysis**: The domestic production area is accelerating the suspension of production, and the overseas raw - material price is high. The demand from tire enterprises is weak, and the inventory has continued to accumulate. The sales of heavy - duty trucks in November increased year - on - year [35]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The main contract of PVC rose 0.34%, and the spot price remained stable, with the basis remaining stable [37]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply exceeds demand, but the downward space is limited. The supply has decreased slightly due to temporary production cuts, and the demand from downstream enterprises has declined. The cost of raw materials is stable, and the profit of the chlor - alkali industry has increased. The social inventory has decreased slightly [37]. Urea - **Market Performance**: The main contract of urea rose 0.34%, and the price in Shandong Linyi remained stable, with the basis remaining stable [38]. - **Market Analysis**: The daily output of urea is expected to fluctuate narrowly. The demand from compound - fertilizer enterprises is expected to increase slightly. The coal price is stable, and the industry profit has rebounded slightly. The enterprise inventory is lower than expected, and the port inventory is in line with expectations [38]. PX - **Market Performance**: The main contract of PX2603 rose 0.46% during the day and 1.72% at night. The PXN spread was adjusted to $350 per ton [40]. - **Market Analysis**: The PX operating rate remained at 88.1%, and the spot liquidity was tight, and inventory was low. Zhejiang Petrochemical plans to reduce production by about 10% in January 2026. The short - term PXN spread has been repaired to a moderately high level, and the short - process profit has continued to improve. PX is expected to oscillate in a slightly stronger manner in the short term [40]. PTA - **Market Performance**: The main contract of PTA2605 rose 0.98% during the day and 1.64% at night [41]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply of PTA has increased, and the demand from the polyester industry has declined. The export of PTA in November increased significantly month - on - month. The processing fee has rebounded, and the inventory remains low. The medium - and long - term supply - demand outlook is good, and it is advisable to participate at low levels following the cost end [41]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: The main contract of ethylene glycol rose 2.25% due to the planned maintenance of a Taiwanese device [42]. - **Market Analysis**: The overall operating rate of ethylene glycol has increased slightly. Two Taiwanese devices plan to shut down for maintenance, which will slightly relieve the supply pressure. However, the port inventory has continued to accumulate, and the expected arrival at the port has increased. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term [42][43][44]. Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: The main contract of short - fiber 2602 rose 0.96% [45]. - **Market Analysis**: The production of short - fiber has decreased but remains at a relatively high level. The raw - material procurement of downstream factories has increased, and the cost - driving force has strengthened. Short - fiber is expected to oscillate following raw material prices [45]. Bottle - Grade PET - **Market Performance**: The main contract of bottle - grade PET 2603 rose 1.44%, and the processing fee rebounded to around 500 yuan/ton [46]. - **Market Analysis**: The production of bottle - grade PET has decreased slightly, and the export growth rate has increased. The supply - demand structure has improved slightly, and it is expected to follow the cost end [46]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main contract rose 0.44% to 123,520 yuan/ton [47]. - **Market Analysis**: The production of lithium carbonate remains at a high level, and the supply - side profit is sufficient. The demand from the energy - storage and power - battery sectors has improved, and the social inventory has gradually decreased. There is short - term support for prices due to the mismatch between supply and demand [47]. Copper - **Market Performance**: The main contract of Shanghai copper closed at 97,680 yuan/ton, with a rise of 2.51% [48]. - **Market Analysis**: The macro - economic data in the US is mixed. The fundamentals remain in a tight balance, and the supply shortage risk remains unresolved. The demand has short - term pressure, and the actual available inventory of electrolytic copper is low. The upward movement of copper prices is mainly due to short - term speculative buying, and it is necessary to be cautious about chasing the rise [48]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 22,305 yuan/ton, with a rise of 0.61%; the main contract of alumina closed at 2,635 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.38% [50]. - **Market Analysis**: The alumina price has fallen below the average cash cost, and the supply surplus pressure remains unchanged. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is stable, and the demand is average. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate at a high level [50][51]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: The main contract of Shanghai zinc closed at 23,105 yuan/ton, with a rise of 0.43% [52]. - **Market Analysis**: The processing fee of zinc concentrate is under pressure, and the production of refined zinc has continued to decline. The demand from downstream industries has decreased, and the LME zinc inventory has increased significantly. Zinc prices are expected to oscillate and adjust [52][53]. Lead - **Market Performance**: The main contract of Shanghai lead closed at 17,265 yuan/ton

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the performance and trends of various futures products, including bonds, stocks, precious metals, industrial metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on market conditions and fundamentals [5][9][10] Summary by Related Catalogs Bonds - The previous trading day, most bond futures closed higher. The central bank conducted a 26 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 20.8 billion yuan on the day. Beijing optimized real estate policies, and the central bank's monetary policy meeting suggested maintaining a loose policy. It is expected that bond futures still face some pressure, and caution is advised [5][6][7] Stocks - The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is not strong. However, domestic asset valuations are low, and the economy has sufficient resilience. Recently, market sentiment has warmed up, and incremental funds have continued to enter the market. It is expected that the volatility center of the stock index will gradually move up, and investors can choose the right time to go long [9] Precious Metals - The previous trading day, gold and silver futures both rose. The current global trade and financial environment is complex, and the "anti - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. Central bank gold purchases and the expected continuous interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are also beneficial to precious metals. It is expected that precious metals will continue to rise, and investors can wait and see for long - entry opportunities [10][11] Industrial Metals - **Steel Products**: The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations. The demand for rebar is expected to decline in the long - term due to the real estate downturn, and the market will enter the off - season. Although the supply pressure has eased, the inventory is higher than last year. It is expected that prices will continue to oscillate weakly, and investors can consider short - selling at high levels during rebounds [12] - **Iron Ore**: The previous trading day, iron ore futures oscillated. The iron ore market supply - demand pattern is weak, with a decline in iron water output, an increase in imports and a continuous rise in port inventory. Technically, it may face resistance near the previous high. Investors can look for short - selling opportunities at high levels [14] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rebounded slightly. Coking coal production has decreased, while demand from downstream coke enterprises has increased. Coke procurement prices have been lowered for the third time, and steel mills' demand for coke has weakened. Technically, they may continue to rebound in the short - term, and investors can consider long - entry opportunities at low levels [15] - **Ferroalloys**: The previous trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron futures declined slightly. Manganese ore supply has changed, and ferroalloy production has been falling. Although the short - term oversupply has slightly weakened, the overall pressure remains. Investors can consider long - entry opportunities at low levels after the spot loss widens [17][18] - **Copper**: The previous trading day, Shanghai copper futures declined. The macro - economic situation is complex, and the fundamentals of copper remain in tight balance. Although there is support from pre - Spring Festival stocking demand, there is short - term pressure from weak global industrial demand and the holiday season. Copper prices are expected to remain at a high level, but investors should be cautious about chasing the rise [39][40] - **Aluminum**: The previous trading day, Shanghai aluminum and alumina futures declined. Alumina is in oversupply, while the supply of electrolytic aluminum is relatively stable. Demand is average, and aluminum prices are expected to oscillate at a high level [42] - **Zinc**: The previous trading day, Shanghai zinc futures declined. Zinc concentrate processing fees are under pressure, and refined zinc production is decreasing. Demand from downstream industries is weak, and LME zinc inventory has increased. Zinc prices are expected to oscillate and adjust [44] - **Lead**: The previous trading day, Shanghai lead futures rose. Some primary lead enterprises are under maintenance, and some secondary lead enterprises have resumed production. Consumption has entered the off - season. Lead prices are expected to oscillate weakly within a range [45] - **Tin**: The previous trading day, tin futures declined. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is showing some resilience. Refined tin inventory is decreasing, and tin prices are expected to oscillate strongly [47] - **Nickel**: The previous trading day, nickel futures declined. Indonesia's nickel policy has changed, and the cost is expected to rise. However, stainless steel is in the off - season, demand is weak, and primary nickel is in an oversupply situation. Investors should pay attention to Indonesia's policies [48][49] Energy - **Crude Oil**: The previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated upward. CFTC data shows that US funds reduced their net short positions. There are uncertainties in the crude oil market due to various factors. Currently, Brent crude oil prices are stable near the $60 mark, and investors are advised to watch more and trade less during the holiday season [19][20] - **Fuel Oil**: The previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated slightly. The cost - end crude oil price is stable, which helps to stabilize fuel oil prices. Fuel oil has hit new lows this year, and there is a large rebound space. Investors can wait and see [21][22] Chemicals - **Polyolefins**: The previous trading day, the PP market in Hangzhou showed a slight rebound, and the LLDPE market in Yuyao was mostly stable. Polyolefin production enterprises are expected to be stable with minor fluctuations. The supply pressure of standard products may ease slightly, but downstream demand is expected to decline. In the short - term, the market is still in a negative feedback stage, and investors can look for long - entry opportunities [23][24][25] - **Synthetic Rubber**: The previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures rose. It is supported by cost and demand in the short - term, and the market is expected to oscillate. Investors need to pay attention to changes in the supply and demand sides [26][27] - **Natural Rubber**: The previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. The market is expected to experience a tug - of - war between bulls and bears, and prices may oscillate. Supply is affected by domestic and overseas factors, and demand is weak. Inventory is increasing [28][29] - **PVC**: The previous trading day, PVC futures rose. The oversupply situation continues, but the downward space may be limited. After the holiday, investors should focus on exports and supply reduction. The inventory has decreased slightly [30] - **Urea**: The previous trading day, urea futures rose. It is expected that the urea market will fluctuate slightly this week. Supply is expected to remain stable, demand is expected to increase slightly, and industry profits have recovered slightly [31][32] - **PX**: The previous trading day, PX futures rose. The PXN spread has been repaired, and the short - process profit has improved. Supply and demand have improved, and cost - end oil prices may have a short - term rebound. PX is expected to adjust strongly in the short - term, and investors can look for long - entry opportunities at low levels [33] - **PTA**: The previous trading day, PTA futures rose. Supply has decreased, demand has been supported, and exports have increased. Processing fees have declined, and inventory is at a low level. PTA is expected to have good medium - and long - term supply and demand, and investors can follow the cost - end to participate at low levels [34] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures rose. Supply pressure remains due to new production and restarts, and port inventory is increasing. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and investors can participate in a range - bound manner [35] - **Short - Fiber**: The previous trading day, short - fiber futures rose. Supply has declined but remains at a relatively high level, demand support has weakened, and cost - end drive has increased. Short - fiber is expected to oscillate following raw material prices [36] - **Bottle Chips**: The previous trading day, bottle - chip futures rose. Processing fees have declined, supply has decreased slightly, and exports have increased. It is expected to oscillate following the cost - end [37] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures rose. Supply is at a high level, and demand from the energy storage and power battery sectors has improved. Inventory has decreased, and prices may be supported in the short - term. Investors should pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [38] Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Meal**: The previous trading day, soybean meal and oil futures declined. Brazilian soybean planting is almost complete, and the domestic soybean supply is relatively loose. The demand for soybean meal is expected to grow moderately, and the demand for soybean oil has improved slightly. Investors can look for long - entry opportunities for soybean meal at the low - cost support level and for soybean oil through long - call options at the low - level range [50][51] - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil was basically flat. The production in December decreased, and the export situation was mixed. China's palm oil imports increased in November, and the inventory is at the middle level in the past seven years. Investors are advised to wait and see [52][53] - **Rapeseed Meal and Oil**: Canadian rapeseed futures rose. China's rapeseed, rapeseed oil, and rapeseed meal imports in November showed different trends. Rapeseed meal and oil inventories are at different levels in the past seven years. Investors are advised to wait and see [54][55] - **Cotton**: The previous trading day, domestic cotton futures oscillated strongly. The 2026 Xinjiang cotton planting policy will reduce the sown area. Although domestic cotton production is high, the inventory accumulation is less than expected. Cotton prices are expected to run strongly [56][58][59] - **Sugar**: The previous trading day, Zhengzhou sugar futures rebounded. China's sugar imports in November decreased year - on - year, and Brazil's sugar production and exports showed different trends. India's sugar production is expected to increase significantly. After the sharp rebound, the upward space may be limited, and investors are advised to wait and see [60][61][62] - **Apples**: The previous trading day, domestic apple futures oscillated. The current inventory is at a low level in recent years, and the new - season apple production and quality have declined. Apple prices are expected to run strongly [63][64] - **Hogs**: The previous trading day, hog futures rose. The northern hog market is expected to strengthen, and the southern market is stable. The supply and demand situation is complex, and investors are advised to wait and see [64][66] - **Eggs**: The previous trading day, egg futures rose. The egg supply is expected to remain at a high level in December, but the demand is weak. The supply - side improvement is offset by weak demand. Investors are advised to wait and see [67][68] - **Corn and Starch**: The previous trading day, corn and corn starch futures rose. The northern port corn inventory is increasing, and the demand is growing slightly. Corn starch demand has improved, but the supply is abundant, and the inventory is at a high level. It may follow the corn market [69][70][71]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the entire industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Overall Market Outlook**: The current macro - economic data remains stable, but the recovery momentum needs strengthening. Monetary policy is expected to remain loose. Market risk preferences have increased, and different asset classes show various trends [6][9]. - **Asset - Specific Views**: - **Bonds**: Treasury futures are expected to face some pressure, and investors should remain cautious [6][7]. - **Equities**: Stock index futures are expected to have a gradually rising volatility center, and investors can choose the right time to go long [9][10]. - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals are expected to continue the upward trend. Investors can wait and see for now and look for long - entry opportunities [12][13]. - **Base Metals and Steel**: Most base metals and steel products show weak or volatile trends. Investors can take appropriate short - term trading strategies according to different market conditions, such as shorting at high levels or going long at low levels [14][15][17]. - **Energy**: Crude oil and fuel oil have different market situations. Crude oil may have long - entry opportunities near key price points, while fuel oil may have room for rebound. Both are currently in a wait - and - see situation [26][27][29]. - **Agricultural Products**: Different agricultural products have different trends. Some may be in a weak or strong position, and investors need to pay attention to supply - demand changes and policy impacts [62][70][73]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Bonds - **Market Performance**: Treasury futures closed up across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rose by 0.89%, 0.26%, 0.17%, and 0.07% respectively. The central bank conducted 59.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 76 billion yuan [5]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: With stable macro - data but weak recovery momentum, and low treasury yields, treasury futures are expected to face pressure, and investors should be cautious [6][7]. Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: Stock index futures showed mixed results. The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 index futures changed by 0.12%, 0.22%, 0.04%, and - 0.15% respectively [8]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: Despite weak corporate profit growth, low domestic asset valuations, sufficient economic resilience, and increased market sentiment suggest that the volatility center of stock index futures is expected to rise, and investors can go long at the right time [9][10]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Gold and silver main contracts rose by 1.34% and 1.43% respectively. The initial annualized quarterly rate of the US real GDP in Q3 was 4.3%, and the US durable goods orders in October decreased by 2.2% [11][12]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: The complex global trade and financial environment, central bank gold - buying, and expected Fed rate cuts are favorable for precious metals, which are expected to continue rising. Investors can wait for long - entry opportunities [12][13]. Base Metals and Steel Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Market Performance**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations. Tangshan billet was priced at 2960 yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar at 3180 - 3320 yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil at 3250 - 3270 yuan/ton [14]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: Due to the long - term decline in real estate demand, approaching demand off - season, and supply - side factors, rebar prices may continue to oscillate weakly. Hot - rolled coils may follow a similar trend. Investors can short at high levels during rebounds [14][15]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: Iron ore futures oscillated. PB powder was priced at 788 yuan/ton, and Super Special powder at 670 yuan/ton [17]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: With falling iron - water output, increasing imports, and rising port inventories, the supply - demand pattern is weak. Futures may face resistance at previous highs. Investors can short at high levels [17]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: Coking coal and coke futures rebounded slightly. Since December, domestic coking coal production has decreased, and the third - round price cut for coke procurement has started [19]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: In the short term, the futures may continue to rebound. Investors can go long at low levels [19][20]. Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: Manganese silicon and silicon iron main contracts changed by - 0.21% and 0.18% respectively. Manganese ore shipments decreased, and port inventories increased slightly. Ferroalloy production continued to decline [22]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: Although the overall oversupply pressure persists, there may be long - entry opportunities at low levels after the expansion of spot losses [22][23]. Energy Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: INE crude oil opened high and closed low, blocked by the 20 - day moving average. Fund managers reduced net short positions, and the number of active oil and gas rigs decreased [24][25]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: There may be long - entry opportunities near the $60 mark for Brent crude. Currently, investors are advised to wait and see [26][27]. Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: Fuel oil rose significantly, closing above the 20 - day moving average. Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased, but it is still much higher than the average [28]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: Tight Asian spot supply and stable crude oil prices support fuel oil prices. It has large rebound potential, but investors are advised to wait and see [29][30]. Chemicals Polyolefins - **Market Performance**: PP and LLDPE markets showed weak trends. PP prices were 6050 - 6200 yuan/ton, and LLDPE prices dropped by 50 - 120 yuan/ton [31]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: The polyolefin market is in a negative feedback stage, but the reduction in standard product supply may boost market sentiment. Investors are advised to wait and see [31][32]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: Synthetic rubber main contract rose by 0.90%. Raw material prices increased, supply was abundant, and demand was weak [33][34]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate [35]. Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: Natural rubber main contracts rose. Domestic supply decreased, and demand was weak. Inventory continued to accumulate [36]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate [37]. PVC - **Market Performance**: PVC main contract rose by 3.02%. Supply decreased slightly, demand weakened, and inventory decreased slightly [38][39]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: Pay attention to supply - side changes [39]. Urea - **Market Performance**: Urea main contract rose by 1.24%. Daily output fluctuated slightly, demand may increase slightly, and inventory was lower than expected [40]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: The downward space is limited [41]. PX - **Market Performance**: PX2603 main contract rose by 1.84%. PXN spread adjusted, and supply - demand improved [42]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: It may oscillate strongly in the short term. Investors can participate at low levels and be vigilant about crude oil and macro - policy changes [43]. PTA - **Market Performance**: PTA2605 main contract rose by 2.38%. Supply decreased, demand was stable, and processing fees declined [44]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: It may have upward momentum. Investors can participate at low levels following cost changes [44]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: Ethylene glycol main contract fell by 3.02%. Supply increased, inventory accumulated, and demand support weakened [45][46]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: It may oscillate at the bottom. Investors can trade within the range and pay attention to inventory and supply changes [46]. Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: Short - fiber 2602 main contract rose by 1.32%. Supply decreased slightly, demand weakened, and cost drive increased [47]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: It may oscillate following raw material prices. Investors should control risks and pay attention to cost and policy changes [47]. Bottle - Grade PET - **Market Performance**: Bottle - grade PET 2603 main contract rose by 1.75%. Processing fees declined, supply decreased slightly, and export growth improved [48]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate following cost changes. Investors should control risks [48]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main contract rose by 5.67%. Supply was high, demand improved, and inventory decreased [49]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: Pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [49]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: Shanghai copper main contract rose by 1.04%. Supply was tight, and demand had short - term pressure [50]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: It will remain at a high level, but investors should be cautious about chasing the rise [50][51]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: Shanghai aluminum main contract rose by 0.16%, and alumina main contract rose by 0.83%. Alumina supply was in surplus, and aluminum demand was average [52][53]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate at a high level [53][54]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: Shanghai zinc main contract rose by 0.39%. Supply decreased, demand was weak, and inventory increased [55]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: It will oscillate and adjust [55][56]. Lead - **Market Performance**: Lead market situation is similar to zinc, with weak supply - demand and limited upward and downward space [57]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: It will oscillate and adjust [57][58]. Tin - **Market Performance**: Tin main contract fell by 1.63%. Supply was tight, and demand had certain resilience [59]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate strongly [59]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: Nickel main contract rose by 2.52%. Policy risks increased, supply was in surplus, and demand was weak [60]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: Pay attention to Indonesian policies [60]. Agricultural Products Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: Soybean meal and soybean oil main contracts rose. Brazilian soybean planting was almost completed, and domestic oil - mill crushing was at a high level [61][62]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: Soybean meal may have long - entry opportunities at low levels, and soybean oil may have upward potential after breaking through. Investors can consider long - entry opportunities in low - level call options [62]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil rose. Indonesian biodiesel policy and export data changed, and domestic inventory was at a medium level [63]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: Investors are advised to wait and see [65]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - **Market Performance**: Canadian rapeseed futures fell slightly. Domestic rapeseed, rapeseed oil, and rapeseed meal imports changed, and inventory levels were different [66]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: Investors are advised to wait and see [67]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: Domestic cotton futures were strong, and overseas cotton rose. Xinjiang's cotton policy and supply - demand reports affected the market [68][70]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: Cotton prices are expected to be strong [70][71]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: Zhengzhou sugar futures rebounded slightly, and overseas raw sugar rose. Domestic and overseas sugar production and import data changed [72][73]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: It will oscillate weakly [74]. Apples - **Market Performance**: Apple futures oscillated, and inventory decreased slightly. New - season production and quality declined [75][77]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: Apple prices are expected to be strong [77][78]. Pigs - **Market Performance**: The national average pig price rose slightly. Supply and demand factors such as sow inventory, planned slaughter, and consumption affected the market [79][80]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: Investors are advised to wait and see and follow the slaughter rhythm and consumption changes [80]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: Egg prices were stable. Egg production was high, and demand was weak [81][82]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: Investors are advised to wait and see [83]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Market Performance**: Corn and corn starch futures fell. North - port inventory increased, and demand was slightly improved [84][85]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: Wait for the release of supply pressure. Corn starch may follow the corn market [86].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views - The overall outlook for various futures markets is diverse. Some markets are expected to have upward trends, some to be in a weak or strong oscillation, and some are recommended for specific trading strategies such as waiting for opportunities or light - position participation [6] [7] [9]. Summary by Categories Bonds - **Treasury Bonds**: On the previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The central bank conducted 67.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on December 22, with a net withdrawal of 63.6 billion yuan. LPR remained unchanged for 7 consecutive months. Given the current situation, treasury bond futures are expected to face some pressure [5]. - **Investment Strategy**: Remain cautious [6]. Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The CSRC will halve the delivery fees of stock index futures and treasury bond futures and the exercise (performance) fees of stock index options from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2026. - **Investment Strategy**: The volatility center of the stock index is expected to gradually move up, and investors can choose the right time to go long [7]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the gold and silver main contracts rose. The complex global trade and financial environment, the trend of "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization", and the possible continuous interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are all beneficial to precious metals. - **Investment Strategy**: Wait and see for now and wait for opportunities to go long [9]. Steel and Iron - related Products - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures oscillated weakly. In the medium term, the price is mainly determined by industry supply and demand. The demand for rebar is in a downward trend year - on - year, and the market will enter the off - season. Although the supply pressure has eased, the inventory is higher than last year. - **Investment Strategy**: Investors can pay attention to shorting opportunities at high levels during rebounds and manage positions carefully [11]. - **Iron Ore**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures oscillated. The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the futures may face resistance near the previous high. - **Investment Strategy**: Investors can pay attention to shorting opportunities at high levels and manage positions carefully [13]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rebounded slightly. The supply of coking coal decreased in December, and the procurement of downstream coking enterprises increased. The third - round price cut of coke spot procurement has started, and the demand from steel mills has weakened. - **Investment Strategy**: Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities at low levels and manage positions carefully [16]. - **Ferroalloys**: On the previous trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron main contracts rose. The supply of manganese ore decreased, and the cost of ferroalloys increased. The demand for ferroalloys was weak, and the inventory continued to rise. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider long - position opportunities at low levels after the expansion of spot losses [18]. Energy Products - **Crude Oil**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil opened high and went high. The CFTC data showed that US funds reduced their net short positions, and the number of active oil and gas rigs in the US decreased. Barclays maintained its 2026 Brent crude price forecast. - **Investment Strategy**: Pay attention to long - position opportunities [19] [20]. - **Fuel Oil**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil rose significantly. The Asian spot fuel oil market was weak, but the on - shore inventory was relieved. The sudden tightness of Asian fuel oil supply and the stable trend of crude oil supported the fuel oil price. - **Investment Strategy**: Pay attention to long - position opportunities [22] [23]. Chemical Products - **Polyolefin**: On the previous trading day, the PP market in Hangzhou and the LLDPE market in Yuyao showed a downward trend. The supply pressure of standard products is expected to slow down slightly, and the downstream demand is expected to weaken. - **Investment Strategy**: Pay attention to long - position opportunities [25]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: On the previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract rose. The price was supported by cost and demand in the short term, and attention should be paid to the changes in supply - side equipment and demand - side recovery. - **Market Outlook**: Oscillate [27] [29]. - **Natural Rubber**: On the previous trading day, the natural rubber main contract fell. The market is expected to have a long - short game, and the rubber price may oscillate. - **Market Outlook**: Oscillate [30] [31]. - **PVC**: On the previous trading day, the PVC main contract fell. The supply - demand imbalance continues, but the downward space may be limited. - **Investment Strategy**: Pay attention to the changes on the supply side [32] [33]. - **Urea**: On the previous trading day, the urea main contract fell. The daily output of urea is expected to fluctuate slightly, and the demand is expected to increase slightly. - **Market Outlook**: The downward space is limited [34] [35]. - **PX**: On the previous trading day, the PX2603 main contract rose. The PXN spread is at a neutral - to - high level, and the short - term profit is improving. The supply - demand pattern has improved, and the cost of crude oil has a short - term driving force. - **Investment Strategy**: Pay attention to long - position opportunities at low levels, be vigilant about crude oil changes, and pay attention to macro - policy changes [36] [37]. - **PTA**: On the previous trading day, the PTA2605 main contract rose. The supply load decreased, and the demand load remained stable. The processing fee decreased, and the inventory was low. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider long - position opportunities following the cost side, control risks, and pay attention to oil price changes [38]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: On the previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract fell. The supply pressure increased, the port inventory continued to rise, and the demand support weakened slightly. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider trading within the range and pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [39] [40]. - **Short Fiber**: On the previous trading day, the short fiber 2602 main contract rose. The supply decreased but remained at a high level, the demand support weakened, and the cost - driving force increased. - **Investment Strategy**: Follow the cost - side logic, pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments, and control risks [41]. - **Bottle Chip**: On the previous trading day, the bottle chip 2603 main contract rose. The processing fee decreased, the supply load decreased slightly, and the export growth rate increased. - **Investment Strategy**: Follow the cost - side logic and control risks [42]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai copper main contract was flat. The macro - situation is complex, with concerns about economic recession and speculation about Fed rate cuts. The fundamentals remain in a tight balance, and the copper price is expected to remain in a high - level oscillation. - **Market Outlook**: High - level oscillation [44] [45]. - **Aluminum**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum main contract fell, and the alumina main contract rose. The alumina supply is in surplus, and the aluminum price may maintain a high - level oscillation. - **Market Outlook**: High - level oscillation [46] [47]. - **Zinc**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc main contract fell. The zinc price lacks strong driving force, and it is expected to oscillate and adjust. - **Market Outlook**: Oscillate and adjust [48] [49]. - **Lead**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai lead main contract rose slightly. The consumption is in the off - season, and the lead price is expected to oscillate weakly within a range. - **Market Outlook**: Oscillate within a range [50] [51]. - **Tin**: On the previous trading day, the tin main contract fell. The supply is tight, and the demand has certain resilience. The tin price is expected to oscillate strongly. - **Market Outlook**: Oscillate strongly [53]. - **Nickel**: On the previous trading day, the nickel main contract rose. The Indonesian policy risk increases, and the nickel market is in a surplus pattern. - **Investment Strategy**: Pay attention to relevant Indonesian policies [54]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: On the previous trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil main contracts rose. The domestic soybean supply is relatively loose, the demand for soybean meal grows moderately, and the demand for soybean oil improves slightly. - **Investment Strategy**: Pay attention to long - position opportunities for soybean meal at the low - cost support interval and long - position opportunities for soybean oil call options at the low interval [55] [56]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil price rose. The domestic palm oil inventory is at a medium - to - low level in the past 7 years. - **Investment Strategy**: Wait and see for now [57] [59]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The Canadian rapeseed price rebounded. The domestic rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil are in the process of destocking. - **Investment Strategy**: Wait and see for now [60] [61]. - **Cotton**: The domestic cotton price oscillated strongly, and the international cotton price oscillated weakly. The domestic cotton output increased, but the inventory accumulation was less than expected, and the cotton price is expected to run strongly. - **Market Outlook**: Run strongly [62] [64]. - **Sugar**: The domestic sugar price rebounded slightly, and the international sugar price rose. The domestic sugar supply pressure is increasing, but the 01 contract is lower than the spot price, and the current warehouse receipt volume is low. - **Market Outlook**: Run weakly and oscillate [66] [69]. - **Apple**: The domestic apple futures oscillated. The apple inventory is at a low level in recent years, and the output and quality have declined. The apple price is expected to run strongly. - **Market Outlook**: Run strongly [70] [71]. - **Pig**: The national average pig price rose slightly. The northern market may turn stronger, and the southern market may slow down its decline. - **Investment Strategy**: Wait and see [73] [74]. - **Egg**: The egg price remained flat. The egg supply in December may remain at a high level, but the demand is weak. - **Investment Strategy**: Wait and see for now [75] [77]. - **Corn and Starch**: The corn and corn starch main contracts rose slightly. The northern port inventory is expected to continue to accumulate, and the demand for corn maintains a slight growth trend. Corn starch may follow the corn market. - **Investment Strategy**: Wait for the release of supply pressure [78] [80].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The macroeconomic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and it is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. There is still some pressure on treasury bond futures, so stay cautious [6]. - The domestic economic recovery momentum is not strong, but the valuation repair of domestic assets still has room, and the market sentiment has warmed up recently. It is expected that the central fluctuation range of stock index futures will gradually move up, and investors can choose the right time to go long [8]. - The global trade and financial environment is complex. The trends of "anti - globalization" and "de - dollarization" are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. It is expected that precious metals will continue to rise. Investors can wait and see for now and wait for opportunities to go long [10]. - The supply - demand pattern of steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils is weak, and the prices may continue the weak and volatile pattern. Investors can pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds [11]. - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is weak, and the futures may face resistance near the previous high. Investors can pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high levels [13]. - Coke and coking coal futures may continue to rebound in the short term. Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities at low levels [15]. - The overall surplus pressure of ferroalloys continues, but the downward space of costs is limited. After a decline, investors can consider long - position opportunities at low levels when the spot losses expand [17]. - The trend of crude oil is uncertain. The price of Brent crude oil is near the $60 integer mark. Investors need to wait for the market to become clear and temporarily stay on the sidelines [20]. - The spot supply of fuel oil in Asia is suddenly tight, and the cost - end crude oil stabilizes. The fuel oil price has fallen to a new low this year and has a large rebound space. Investors can temporarily stay on the sidelines [23]. - The polyolefin market is still in a negative feedback stage, but the reduction of standard product supply may boost market sentiment to some extent. Investors can pay attention to long - position opportunities [27]. - Synthetic rubber is expected to fluctuate [30]. - Natural rubber is expected to show a volatile trend [33]. - The PVC market continues to have a supply - surplus situation, and investors should pay attention to changes in the supply side [34]. - The downward space of urea prices is limited [37]. - PX may fluctuate strongly in the short term. Investors can pay attention to opportunities to participate at low levels and be vigilant about changes in crude oil and macro - policies [38]. - PTA may have an upward driving force in the short term. Investors can consider participating at low levels, control risks, and pay attention to oil price changes [39]. - Ethylene glycol may maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern in the short term. Investors can consider trading within the range and pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [40]. - Short - fiber may follow the raw material price to oscillate. Investors should control risks and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [41]. - Bottle chips are expected to follow the cost side to oscillate. Investors should control risks [42]. - The supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both strong, and the social inventory is gradually being depleted. Investors should pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [43]. - Copper prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillation [46]. - Aluminum prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillation [48]. - Zinc prices are expected to maintain an oscillating adjustment [51]. - Lead prices are expected to oscillate weakly within a range [53]. - Tin prices are expected to oscillate strongly [54]. - Nickel is still in a surplus pattern, and investors should pay attention to relevant policies in Indonesia [56]. - For soybean meal, investors can pay attention to long - position opportunities in the low - cost support range; for soybean oil, the short - term downward space may be limited, and investors can pay attention to long - position opportunities in call options [59]. - Palm oil investors should temporarily stay on the sidelines [61]. - Rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil investors should temporarily stay on the sidelines [64]. - Cotton prices are expected to run strongly [68]. - Sugar prices are expected to run weakly and oscillate [71]. - Apple prices are expected to run strongly [73]. - For live pigs, investors should continue to follow the marginal changes in consumption brought by subsequent cooling and consider waiting and seeing [76]. - For eggs, investors should consider temporarily staying on the sidelines [78]. - Corn and corn starch may follow the market trend. Investors should wait patiently for the further release of supply pressure [80]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations, with a net investment of 357 billion yuan on the day. It is expected that there is still some pressure on treasury bond futures, so stay cautious [5][6]. Stock Index Futures - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, but the valuation repair of domestic assets has room, and the market sentiment has warmed up. It is expected that the central fluctuation range will gradually move up, and investors can choose the right time to go long [8]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures closed down. The Bank of Japan raised interest rates, and the US consumer confidence index was lower than expected. The global trade and financial environment is complex, which is beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. It is expected that precious metals will continue to rise. Investors can wait and see for now and wait for opportunities to go long [10]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures oscillated. The demand for rebar is in a year - on - year decline, and the market will enter the off - season. The production capacity is in surplus, and the inventory pressure is obvious. The prices may continue the weak and volatile pattern. Investors can pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds [11]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rose slightly. The national hot - metal daily output has been declining since October, the supply has increased, and the port inventory has continued to rise. The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the futures may face resistance near the previous high. Investors can pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high levels [13]. Coke and Coking Coal - On the previous trading day, coke and coking coal futures oscillated. The production of domestic coking coal has decreased, and the demand from downstream coking enterprises has increased. The third - round price cut of coke spot procurement has started, and the demand from steel mills has weakened. The futures may continue to rebound in the short term. Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities at low levels [15]. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures closed up. The supply of manganese ore has decreased, and the cost of ferroalloys has increased. The production of ferroalloys has continued to decline, and the demand is weak. The overall surplus pressure continues, but the downward space of costs is limited. After a decline, investors can consider long - position opportunities at low levels when the spot losses expand [17]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil rebounded after reaching a low. The US imposed sanctions on Venezuelan oil tankers. The CFTC data showed that fund managers reduced their net short positions in US crude oil futures and options. The number of active oil and gas rigs in the US decreased. Barclays maintained its forecast for Brent crude oil prices in 2026. The trend of crude oil is uncertain, and investors need to wait for the market to become clear and temporarily stay on the sidelines [19][20]. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil fell sharply. The supply of marine fuel oil in Asia is suddenly tight, and the cost - end crude oil stabilizes. The fuel oil price has fallen to a new low this year and has a large rebound space. Investors can temporarily stay on the sidelines [22][23]. Polyolefins - On the previous trading day, the prices of PP and LLDPE in the market fell. The production of polyolefins is expected to be stable with slight fluctuations. The supply pressure of standard products may be slightly relieved, but the downstream demand is expected to weaken. The market is still in a negative feedback stage, but the reduction of standard product supply may boost market sentiment to some extent. Investors can pay attention to long - position opportunities [25][27]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures closed down. The price has been rising slightly recently, supported by costs and demand. The follow - up needs to focus on changes in supply - side devices and the recovery of demand [29]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures closed down. It is expected that the market will continue the long - short game, and the rubber price may show a volatile trend. The supply is affected by overseas conflicts, the demand from the tire industry is slow, and the inventory continues to accumulate [31]. PVC - On the previous trading day, PVC futures closed down. The supply - surplus situation continues, but the downward space may be limited. The upward trend needs to wait for the improvement of the fundamentals. After the festival, focus on exports and supply reduction [34]. Urea - On the previous trading day, urea futures closed down. It is expected that the urea market will rise slightly this week. The daily production is expected to fluctuate slightly, the industrial demand is strong, and the agricultural demand is weak. The downward space of prices is limited [35]. PX - On the previous trading day, PX futures rose. The PXN spread has been repaired to a moderately high level, and there may be pressure above. The short - term profit has improved, the start - up rate is stable, and the cost - end crude oil has a short - term rebound drive. The supply - demand pattern has improved month - on - month. In the short term, PX may fluctuate strongly. Investors can pay attention to opportunities to participate at low levels and be vigilant about changes in crude oil and macro - policies [38]. PTA - On the previous trading day, PTA futures rose. The supply of PTA has decreased, and the demand from the polyester industry is stable, but the terminal loom load has declined. The processing fee has rebounded slightly, and the inventory is still at a low level. In the short term, PTA may have an upward driving force. Investors can consider participating at low levels, control risks, and pay attention to oil price changes [39]. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures closed down. The new investment and restart of ethylene glycol devices have increased, the supply pressure still exists, the port inventory continues to accumulate, and the pre - arrival at the port has increased. In the short term, it may maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern. Investors can consider trading within the range and pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [40]. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures rose. The supply of short - fiber has declined but remains at a relatively high level, the demand support has weakened, but the cost drive has increased, and the inventory is at a low level. In the short term, it may follow the raw material price to oscillate. Investors should control risks and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [41]. Bottle Chips - On the previous trading day, bottle - chip futures rose. The processing fee has been adjusted to around 500 yuan/ton. The load of bottle - chip factories has decreased, the export growth rate has increased, and the supply - demand structure has improved slightly month - on - month. It is expected to follow the cost side to oscillate. Investors should control risks [42]. Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures rose. The supply is still at a high level, and the consumption in the energy - storage and power - battery sectors has improved. The social inventory is gradually being depleted. Investors should pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [43]. Copper - On the previous trading day, copper futures rose. The US employment data and inflation data have affected market expectations. The fundamentals are in a tight balance, the supply shortage risk remains, and the demand has short - term pressure. The copper price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation [44][45]. Aluminum - On the previous trading day, aluminum futures rose, and alumina futures fell. The alumina market is in surplus, and the electrolytic aluminum supply is stable. The demand is average, and the inventory has changed. The aluminum price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation [47]. Zinc - On the previous trading day, zinc futures rose. The zinc concentrate processing fee is under pressure, the refined zinc production has decreased, the downstream demand has declined, and the LME zinc inventory has increased. The zinc price is expected to maintain an oscillating adjustment [49][50]. Lead - On the previous trading day, lead futures rose. Some primary lead enterprises are under maintenance, and some secondary lead enterprises have resumed production. The consumption has entered the off - season, and the inventory has decreased. The lead price is expected to oscillate weakly within a range [52]. Tin - On the previous trading day, tin futures rose. The supply of tin ore is tight, the production in Wa State is progressing slowly, and the import from Indonesia may be affected. The demand shows certain resilience. The refined tin inventory has decreased. The tin price is expected to oscillate strongly [54]. Nickel - On the previous trading day, nickel futures rose. Indonesia plans to reduce the nickel - ore quota in 2026 and may tax associated resources. The nickel - ore price is stable, but the downstream demand is weak, and the inventory is at a relatively high level. Nickel is still in a surplus pattern, and investors should pay attention to relevant policies in Indonesia [55][56]. Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil - On the previous trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil futures closed down. Brazilian soybean planting is nearly completed, and the US soybean price has declined. The domestic soybean arrival volume is at a high level, the oil - mill crushing is in a loss, and the inventory pressure is still large. The demand for soybean meal is growing moderately, and the demand for soybean oil has improved slightly. For soybean meal, investors can pay attention to long - position opportunities in the low - cost support range; for soybean oil, the short - term downward space may be limited, and investors can pay attention to long - position opportunities in call options [57][59]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil has fallen for two consecutive weeks. The inventory in Indonesia has decreased, and the export in Malaysia has increased. The domestic palm - oil inventory is at a medium - low level in the past seven years. Investors should temporarily stay on the sidelines [60][61]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed futures have fallen for six consecutive days. The domestic import of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil has changed, and the inventory has decreased. Investors should temporarily stay on the sidelines [62][64]. Cotton - On the previous trading day, domestic cotton futures oscillated strongly, and overseas cotton futures rebounded slightly. The 2026 Xinjiang cotton industry policy will reduce the sown area by more than 10%. The global and US cotton inventories have increased. The domestic cotton harvest is nearly completed, and the demand is average. The cotton price is expected to run strongly [65][67]. Sugar - On the previous trading day, domestic sugar futures fell, and overseas raw - sugar futures rose. The domestic sugar import in November decreased year - on - year, and the Brazilian sugar export decreased slightly. India's sugar production is expected to increase significantly. The domestic new - sugar supply pressure is increasing, and the import volume in December is expected to be high. The sugar price is expected to run weakly and oscillate [69][71]. Apples - On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures oscillated and rose. The inventory in the main producing areas has decreased, and the new - season apple production and quality have declined. The apple price is expected to run strongly [72][73]. Live Pigs - The national average price of live pigs has fallen. The northern market may turn strong, and the southern market's decline expectation may converge. The supply and demand situation and inventory have changed. Investors should continue to follow the marginal changes in consumption brought by subsequent cooling and consider waiting and seeing [74][76]. Eggs - The average price of eggs in the main producing and selling areas has remained flat. The egg - chicken inventory is at a high level, and the consumption may weaken after the winter solstice. The supply improvement is offset by weak demand. Investors should consider temporarily staying on the sidelines [77][78]. Corn and Corn Starch - On the previous trading day, corn and corn - starch futures closed down. The northern - port corn inventory is accumulating, the import may increase in the future, the new - season corn in the main producing areas is expected to be a bumper harvest, and the cost may be revised down. The demand for corn is growing slightly, and the corn - starch demand has recovered slightly, but the inventory is at a high level. They may follow the market trend. Investors should wait patiently for the further release of supply pressure [79][80].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening. The bond market is under pressure, and caution is advised; the stock index is expected to gradually move up, and it's advisable to go long at an appropriate time; precious metals are expected to continue rising, and investors can wait for opportunities to go long; steel products are likely to remain weak, and investors can short at high levels; iron ore may experience a correction, and short - selling at high levels is recommended; coking coal and coke may stop falling and stabilize, and investors can consider buying at low levels; ferroalloys may be considered for low - level long positions after losses in the spot market widen; crude oil and fuel oil are recommended for temporary observation; polyolefins can be considered for long positions; synthetic and natural rubber are expected to fluctuate; PVC requires attention to supply - side changes; urea has limited downside space; PX and PTA may fluctuate and adjust, and attention should be paid to oil price changes; ethylene glycol may maintain bottom - range fluctuations, and attention should be paid to port inventory and supply changes; short - fiber may fluctuate with costs; bottle chips are expected to follow cost - side fluctuations; lithium carbonate is in a situation of both supply and demand boom; copper may have a technical correction risk; aluminum may continue to fluctuate at a high level; zinc should be chased with caution; lead may continue to fluctuate; tin may fluctuate strongly; nickel may fluctuate; soybean oil and meal can be considered for long positions in the low - cost support range; palm oil and rapeseed meal and oil are recommended for temporary observation; cotton is expected to run strongly; sugar is expected to run weakly and fluctuate; apples are expected to run strongly; pigs can be considered for observation; eggs are recommended for temporary observation; corn and starch may follow the corn market trend [6][10][12][15][17][20][23][25][28][30][32][34][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][45][46][48][50][51][53][55][58][62][66][67][71][73][77] Summary by Related Catalogs Bonds - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, bond futures closed up across the board, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rising 0.63%, 0.10%, 0.06%, and 0.01% respectively. The central bank conducted 46.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 143 billion yuan on the day. From January to November, national general public budget revenue increased by 0.8% year - on - year; expenditure increased by 1.4% year - on - year [5] - **Outlook**: The bond market is under pressure, and caution is advised [6][7] Stock Index - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures changed by 1.86%, 1.43%, 2.02%, and 1.54% respectively [8] - **Outlook**: The stock index is expected to gradually move up, and it's advisable to go long at an appropriate time [10][11] Precious Metals - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the gold main contract rose 0.85%, and the silver main contract rose 5.77%. The Fed may cut interest rates, and the global trade and financial environment is complex [12] - **Outlook**: Precious metals are expected to continue rising, and investors can wait for opportunities to go long [12][13] Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated weakly. The spot price of Tangshan billet is 2,950 yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar is 3,150 - 3,280 yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil is 3,250 - 3,270 yuan/ton [14] - **Outlook**: The price of rebar may remain weak in the medium term, and hot - rolled coil may follow a similar trend. Investors can short at high levels [15] Iron Ore - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, iron ore futures rebounded slightly. The spot price of PB powder is 784 yuan/ton, and super - special powder is 675 yuan/ton. Since October, national hot - metal daily output has declined, and port inventory has increased [17] - **Outlook**: The iron ore market supply - demand pattern is weak, and it may experience a correction. Investors can short at high levels [17] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fell slightly. Since December, domestic coking coal production has decreased, and downstream demand is weak. The second - round price cut of coke spot purchases has landed [19] - **Outlook**: Coking coal and coke futures may stop falling and stabilize, but the medium - term weakness has not reversed. Investors can consider buying at low levels [20] Ferroalloys - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the manganese - silicon main contract rose 0.16%, and the silicon - iron main contract rose 1.06%. Manganese ore supply is tight, and the cost is rising. The production of ferroalloys is declining, and the demand is weak [22] - **Outlook**: Ferroalloys are in an overall oversupply situation. After losses in the spot market widen, low - level long positions can be considered [23] Crude Oil - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, INE crude oil rebounded after hitting the bottom. The US sanctions on Venezuelan oil tankers and CFTC data show that funds are bearish on the future of crude oil [24][25] - **Outlook**: The trend of crude oil is uncertain, and the main contract is recommended for temporary observation [25][26] Fuel Oil - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, fuel oil fluctuated upward. Singapore's fuel oil inventory has reached a 13 - week high due to increased imports and weak consumption [27] - **Outlook**: The fuel oil price is under pressure, and the main contract is recommended for temporary observation [28] Polyolefins - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the Hangzhou PP market declined, and the Yuyao LLDPE price fell. The market supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is weak [29] - **Outlook**: The polyolefin fundamentals are weak, and investors can consider long positions [29][30] Synthetic Rubber - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract rose 2.81%. The cost is supported, and the supply has slightly increased. The tire demand is slow [31] - **Outlook**: Synthetic rubber is expected to fluctuate [31][32] Natural Rubber - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the natural rubber main contract rose 1.42%, and the 20 - number rubber main contract rose 1.53%. The supply is affected by overseas conflicts, and the demand is slow. The inventory is increasing [32] - **Outlook**: Natural rubber is expected to fluctuate [32][33] PVC - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the PVC main contract rose 1.17%. The supply exceeds demand, the device utilization rate has decreased, and the demand has declined [34] - **Outlook**: Pay attention to the supply - side changes of PVC [34] Urea - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the urea main contract rose 1.29%. The daily output is expected to fluctuate slightly, the industrial demand is strong, and the agricultural demand is weak [35] - **Outlook**: The downside space of urea is limited [35][36] PX - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the PX2603 main contract rose 0.47%. The PX load has declined slightly, and the short - process profit has improved [37] - **Outlook**: PX may fluctuate and adjust, and attention should be paid to oil price changes [37] PTA - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the PTA2605 main contract rose 0.3%. The PTA load is 73.7%, the polyester load is 91.2%, and the processing fee has recovered [38] - **Outlook**: PTA may fluctuate, and attention should be paid to oil price changes [38] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract rose 0.67%. The overall start - up load has decreased, the port inventory has increased, and the demand has weakened [39] - **Outlook**: Ethylene glycol may maintain bottom - range fluctuations, and attention should be paid to port inventory and supply changes [39] Short - Fiber - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the short - fiber 2602 main contract rose 0.43%. The device load has decreased, the demand has changed little, and the inventory is stable [40] - **Outlook**: Short - fiber may fluctuate with costs, and attention should be paid to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [40] Bottle Chips - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the bottle chips 2603 main contract rose 0.28%. The processing fee is 500 yuan/ton, the load has slightly decreased, and the export growth has slowed down [41] - **Outlook**: Bottle chips are expected to follow cost - side fluctuations [41] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the main contract rose 7.6%. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is strong. The inventory is gradually decreasing [42] - **Outlook**: Lithium carbonate is in a situation of both supply and demand boom [42] Copper - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai copper main contract rose 0.51%. The global copper concentrate supply - demand imbalance is intensified, the production has recovered, but the terminal procurement has weakened [43] - **Outlook**: Copper may have a technical correction risk [43][44] Aluminum - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum main contract rose 0.75%, and the alumina main contract rose 0.9%. Alumina supply exceeds demand, and electrolytic aluminum supply is constrained. The inventory has decreased [45] - **Outlook**: Aluminum may continue to fluctuate at a high level [45][46] Zinc - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc main contract rose 0.59%. The refined zinc production has decreased, the consumption has entered the off - season, and the inventory has decreased [46] - **Outlook**: Chase zinc with caution [46][47] Lead - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai lead main contract rose 0.33%. The supply has shrunk, the demand is weak, and the inventory has decreased [48] - **Outlook**: Lead may continue to fluctuate [48] Tin - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the main contract rose 2.84%. The supply is tight, and the demand has certain resilience. The inventory has decreased [49][50] - **Outlook**: Tin may fluctuate strongly [50] Nickel - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the main contract rose 0.51%. The nickel ore price is stable, the downstream demand is weak, and the inventory is at a relatively high level [51] - **Outlook**: Nickel may fluctuate [51] Soybean Oil and Meal - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the soybean meal main contract fell 0.45%, and the soybean oil main contract fell 0.89%. The Brazilian soybean planting progress is slightly slower, the oil - mill crushing is at a high level, and the inventory pressure is still large [52] - **Outlook**: Soybean oil and meal can be considered for long positions in the low - cost support range [53] Palm Oil - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the palm oil night session strengthened. The US sanctions on Venezuelan oil tankers, the Indian inventory has decreased, and the Malaysian exports have declined [54] - **Outlook**: Palm oil is recommended for temporary observation [55] Rapeseed Meal and Oil - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the rapeseed price fell. The US biofuel blending decision is postponed, the domestic import volume has changed, and the inventory is in the middle or high level of the past seven years [56][57] - **Outlook**: Rapeseed meal and oil are recommended for temporary observation [58] Cotton - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, domestic cotton futures fell slightly, and overseas cotton rebounded slightly. The 2026 Xinjiang cotton planting area will be reduced by more than 10%. The global cotton inventory has increased, and the textile and clothing exports are relatively stable [59][60][61] - **Outlook**: Cotton is expected to run strongly [62] Sugar - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated weakly, and overseas raw sugar fell. Brazilian sugar production has decreased, Indian sugar production has increased, and the domestic new sugar supply pressure is increasing [63][64][65] - **Outlook**: Sugar is expected to run weakly and fluctuate [66] Apples - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, domestic apple futures rebounded slightly. The current inventory is at a low level in recent years, and the new - season apple production and quality have declined [67] - **Outlook**: Apples are expected to run strongly [68] Pigs - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the national average pig price rose. The consumption is improving, the supply is expected to increase, and the cost is fluctuating at a low level [69][70][71] - **Outlook**: Observe the follow - up consumption changes and consider waiting and seeing [71] Eggs - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the main - producing area egg price was flat, and the main - selling area egg price was flat. The egg - laying hen inventory is at a high level, the cost is rising, and the profit is low [72] - **Outlook**: Eggs are recommended for temporary observation [73] Corn and Starch - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the corn main contract fell 0.14%, and the corn starch main contract rose 0.12%. The northern port inventory may accumulate, the demand is growing slightly, and the corn starch inventory is at a high level [74][75][76] - **Outlook**: Corn and starch may follow the corn market trend [77]