Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The current spot market has significant fluctuations, and the futures market has a deep discount, presenting potential arbitrage opportunities between futures and spot markets [2]. - After the implementation of the US reciprocal tariffs, the stock index volatility has increased significantly. In the short - term, the index may be oversold. Attention should be paid to signs of tariff relaxation and structural opportunities in the stock market. With the RMB holding key levels, the index may stabilize. Currently, the valuation of IF is low, and it is recommended to allocate at low prices [2]. - In the short - term, treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate. In the long - term, the safe - haven property of Chinese treasury bonds is more prominent. Considering the unclear export prospects, the central bank may cut interest rates and reserve requirements to support the domestic economy, and the prices of long - term treasury bonds are expected to continue rising [3]. 3. Summary by Directory (1) Economic Data - High - frequency data shows a divergence in the economic fundamentals' prosperity. The prosperity of the import and export sectors continues to improve, while social activities are weaker than the same period [4]. (2) Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - On April 15, most of the four major A - share stock indexes declined. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.15% to close at 3267.66 points; the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.27% to close at 9858.1 points; the ChiNext Index fell 0.13% to close at 1930.4 points; the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index fell 0.78% to close at 1006.34 points. The market turnover was 1.1102 trillion yuan, a decrease of 202.4 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The base spreads of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH are 121.03, 99.93, 38.83, and 16.79 points respectively, with annualized base - spread yields of - 24.36%, - 21.23%, - 12.29%, and - 7.59% respectively, and three - year historical quantiles of 1%, 1%, 1%, and 13% respectively [2]. (3) Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - On April 15, treasury bond futures declined. The 2 - year treasury bond futures fell 0.04% to close at 102.54 points, the 5 - year treasury bond futures fell 0.04% to close at 106.3 points, the 10 - year treasury bond futures fell 0.02% to close at 108.96 points, and the 30 - year treasury bond futures fell 0.03% to close at 119.78 points [2]. - The current active contracts are the 2506 contracts. The CTD bonds of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures have high IRR and low basis, presenting potential arbitrage opportunities between futures and spot markets [3]. - In the open - market operations, the central bank injected 164.5 billion yuan and withdrew 167.4 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2.9 billion yuan [3].

2025年04月16日 星期三 商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 | 招商评论 | | | --- | --- | | 贵 | 市场表现：周一贵金属市场高位震荡；消息面，特朗普政府与主要贸易伙伴的关税战风险未能消减。媒体称 | | 金 | 欧美贸易谈判陷入僵局；特朗普签署行政令，调查美国依赖进口关键矿物的安全风险。经济数据方面，纽约 | | 属 | 制造业整体商业状况指数上升 11.9 点，至-8.1，好于市场预期的-13.5，尽管有所缓和，这仍是制造业活动连 | | | 续第二个月萎缩，制造商对未来经济前景的信心已降至 911 恐袭事件后的最差水平。。库存数据方面，印度 2 | | | 月白银进口减至 250 吨左右；上期所白银库存周一减少 17 吨至 952 吨，金交所白银库存周二未公布上周库 | | | 存，上上周增加 37 吨 1768 吨。伦敦 3 月库存减少 335 吨至 22124 吨。近期国内白银价格反弹，现货消费较 | | | 好，库存去化。操作上，黄金短期市场预期一致，建议多单持有，白银空单适当减仓或者做多金银比。风险 | | | 点：贸易战反复 | 基本金属 招商评论 | | 市场表现 ...

2025年4月15日 星期二 金融研究 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：4 月 14 日，A 股四大股指延续强势，其中上证指数上涨 0.76%，报收 3262.81 点；深成 指上涨 0.51%，报收 9884.3 点；创业板指上涨 0.34%，报收 1932.91 点；科创 50 指数上涨 0.25%， 报收 1014.28 点。市场成交 13,127 亿元，较前日减少 780 亿元。行业板块方面，纺织服饰(+2.56%)， 煤炭(+2.5%)，有色金属(+2.46%)涨幅居前；家用电器(-0.6%)，食品饮料(-0.36%)，房地产(+0.2%) 跌幅居前。从市场强弱看，IM>IC>IH>IF，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 4,550/100/755。沪深两市，机构、 主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入 25、-6、-9、-11 亿元，分别变动-44、+84、+113、-153 亿 元。 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 144.53、111.34、32.54 与 10.21 点，基差年化收益率 分别为-27.66%、-22.48%、-9.84%与-4.41%，三年期历史分 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports - The overall market is influenced by various factors such as trade policies, economic data, and supply - demand dynamics across different commodity sectors. Different commodities show diverse trends and investment opportunities due to their unique fundamentals [1][2][4]. - Trade policies, especially tariffs, have a significant impact on multiple industries, including metals, energy, and agriculture, affecting both supply and demand sides [1][2][4]. - In the short - term, many commodities are expected to show a wide - range of price fluctuations, and investors are advised to be cautious and adopt appropriate trading strategies based on the specific situation of each commodity [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On Monday, precious metal prices fluctuated. Gold and silver showed different trends, with domestic silver prices rebounding and good spot consumption [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Economic data included changes in inflation expectations in the US, and inventory data showed changes in silver inventories in different regions. China's gold ETF holdings increased in April [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold long positions in gold, and appropriately reduce short positions in silver or go long on the gold - silver ratio [1]. Base Metals - **Copper** - **Market Performance**: Copper prices rose and then fell. - **Fundamentals**: US Treasury yields declined, the US dollar index stabilized, the supply of copper ore was tight, and domestic copper inventories continued to decline [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wide - range oscillation trading approach in the short - term [2]. - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Performance**: The price dropped on Monday, reaching a new low. - **Fundamentals**: Some large factories in Xinjiang planned to cut production, social inventories were increasing, and demand in related industries was weak [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Look for opportunities to short at high prices [2]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Performance**: The price opened high, then fell, and fluctuated. - **Fundamentals**: Supply was expected to increase in April, and inventory was expected to decrease. Demand showed different trends in different segments of the industry [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: The market is expected to oscillate in the short - term [2]. - **Tin** - **Market Performance**: Tin prices rose and then fell. - **Fundamentals**: Domestic and London inventories decreased, and downstream demand was relatively weak after a previous sharp decline [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wide - range oscillation trading approach in the short - term [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar Steel** - **Market Performance**: The main contract showed a strong - side oscillation. - **Fundamentals**: The supply - demand situation of steel improved marginally, inventories decreased, and the futures valuation was relatively high [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading, and hold short positions in the 05 contract's coil - ore ratio. The reference range for RB10 is 3100 - 3170 [4]. - **Iron Ore** - **Market Performance**: The main contract showed a strong - side oscillation. - **Fundamentals**: The supply - demand of iron ore was moderately strong, but the medium - term surplus pattern remained unchanged, and the valuation was slightly high [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading, and hold short positions in the 05 contract's coil - ore ratio. The reference range for I09 is 690 - 740 [4]. - **Coking Coal** - **Market Performance**: The main contract showed a strong - side oscillation. - **Fundamentals**: Iron - making water production increased, the overall supply - demand was relatively loose, and the futures valuation was high [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. The reference range for JM05 is 870 - 950 [4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal** - **Market Performance**: Overnight, CBOT soybeans showed mixed trends. - **Fundamentals**: The supply side had a near - term South American bumper harvest and a long - term reduction in US soybean planting area. The demand side was dominated by Brazil in the short - term, and US soybean demand was seasonally weak [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: US soybeans are expected to oscillate, and domestic soybean meal is expected to oscillate with an upward bias. Pay attention to trade policies and US soybean planting area changes in the medium - term [5]. - **Corn** - **Market Performance**: The 2505 contract of corn declined, with spot prices rising in North China and remaining stable in Northeast China [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The grain - selling progress was faster than usual, the supply - demand situation improved, and the selling pressure was expected to weaken [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Corn futures prices are expected to oscillate with an upward bias [5]. - **Vegetable Oils** - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil prices fell. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased seasonally, and export growth was weak [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term driving force for palm oil is weak, and there are differences among varieties. Pay attention to future production in the producing areas and biodiesel policies in the medium - term [5]. - **Sugar** - **Market Performance**: The 09 contract of Zhengzhou sugar closed at 5904 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.39%. - **Fundamentals**: International raw sugar prices broke through the support level, while domestic sugar prices were more likely to rise. The supply - demand situation was different at home and abroad [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go short on the 09 contract [5]. - **Cotton** - **Market Performance**: Overnight, US cotton prices continued to fall, and domestic Zhengzhou cotton prices oscillated widely. - **Fundamentals**: The production in India decreased, and China's textile and clothing exports increased in March [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Take profit on short positions [5]. - **Logs** - **Market Performance**: The 07 contract of logs closed at 834.5 yuan/cubic meter, with a decline of 0.12%. - **Fundamentals**: The ban on US log imports had been reflected in the market. Current出库 volume increased, but the arrival volume was still high. Housing construction demand provided some support [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [5]. - **Eggs** - **Market Performance**: The 2505 contract of eggs rose and then fell, with spot prices rising. - **Fundamentals**: Supply was expected to decline, and demand was expected to improve with the approaching May Day holiday [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices are expected to oscillate with an upward bias [5]. - **Pigs** - **Market Performance**: The 2505 contract of pigs rose, with spot prices rising. - **Fundamentals**: Supply was expected to increase in April, but secondary fattening would support prices. It was the off - season for demand [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices are expected to oscillate [7]. Energy and Chemicals - **LLDPE** - **Market Performance**: The main contract of LLDPE oscillated slightly. - **Fundamentals**: Supply was increasing, and demand was affected by tariffs and the end of the peak season for agricultural films [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate in the short - term, go short at high prices. In the long - term, go short on far - month contracts at high prices [8]. - **PVC** - **Market Performance**: The V05 contract rose. - **Fundamentals**: Supply was affected by spring maintenance, demand was affected by tariffs, and inventories were at a high level but declining [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hedge after the price recovers to a high premium [8]. - **PTA** - **Market Performance**: PX CFR China price was at a certain level, and PTA spot prices were also given. - **Fundamentals**: Supply of PX and PTA decreased in the short - term, and polyester load was high. Pay attention to export orders after the tariff suspension [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Look for positive spread trading opportunities if there is a short - term rush for exports [8]. - **Rubber** - **Market Performance**: The main contract of rubber rose on Monday. - **Fundamentals**: Supply side had price rebounds in Yunnan, and inventory changes were observed in Qingdao. Demand side had a slight decline in tire开工 rate [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [8]. - **Glass** - **Market Performance**: The FG05 contract declined slightly. - **Fundamentals**: Supply was expected to increase slightly, inventory was stable, and downstream product exports were blocked [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect prices to oscillate within a range [8]. - **PP** - **Market Performance**: The main contract of PP oscillated slightly. - **Fundamentals**: Supply was increasing, and demand was affected by tariffs. Pay attention to the impact of tariff suspension on exports [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate in the short - term, and pay attention to the impact on PDH device operation and new device production [8]. - **MEG** - **Market Performance**: MEG spot prices and basis were given. - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure decreased, inventory declined, and polyester load was high. Pay attention to export orders after the tariff suspension [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expected to be strong in the short - term but with limited upside in the long - term [8]. - **Crude Oil** - **Market Performance**: Oil prices rose and then fell. - **Fundamentals**: OPEC slightly lowered the 2025 demand forecast, and the Keystone pipeline was expected to restart [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go short on far - month contracts, especially in the long - term. Adopt a wait - and - see approach due to lack of liquidity in SC far - month contracts [9]. - **Styrene** - **Market Performance**: The main contract oscillated slightly. - **Fundamentals**: Supply side had inventory changes in pure benzene and styrene. Demand side was affected by tariffs and downstream production and exports [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate with an upward bias following the cost (pure benzene), and conduct positive spread trading. The upside is limited by the import window [10]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Performance**: The SA05 contract rose. - **Fundamentals**: The operating rate increased, inventory was at a high level, and downstream demand was relatively stable [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [10]. - **Caustic Soda** - **Market Performance**: The sh05 contract rose. - **Fundamentals**: Supply and demand were both weak, inventory decline was less than expected, and downstream demand was weak [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect prices to continue to decline, and pay attention to the 2200 support level [10]. Shipping - **European Line Container Shipping** - **Market Performance**: The main contract fell by 5.3%. - **Fundamentals**: US trade policies affected trade volume, and the situation in the Middle East affected shipping routes. Supply and demand in different routes changed [11][12]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go short on the 10 contract [12].

金融研究 金融期货早班车 交易策略：美国对等关税落地后，股指波动显著增大。短期指数存在超跌的可能，关注关税有无缓和 迹象，以及股市的结构性机会。人民币守住关键关口，指数或能同步企稳。目前 IF 的估值较低，建 议逢低配置。 风险提示：美国双边政策不确定性、财政扩张进度不及预期、现货板块轮动较快。 市场表现：4 月 11 日，国债期货有所回调，其中 2 年期国债期货下跌 0.07%，报收 102.64 点，5 年 期国债期货上涨下跌 0.13%，报收 106.4 点，10 年期国债期货下跌 0.14%，报收 108.95 点，30 年 期国债期货下跌 0.36%，报收 119.53 点。 2025年4月14日 星期一 现券：目前活跃合约为 2506 合约，2 年期国债期货 CTD 券为 240024.IB，收益率变动+0bps，对应 净基差-0.127，IRR2.35%；5 年期国债期货 CTD 券为 220021.IB，收益率变动+0bps，对应净基差 -0.091，IRR2.13%；10 年期国债期货 CTD 券为 240025.IB，收益率变动+0.5bps，对应净基差-0.108， IRR2.22%；3 ...

2025年04月14日 星期一 商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 招商评论 贵 金 属 市场表现：上周贵金属价格大幅走强，以伦敦金计价的国际金价再创新高；消息面，美国已同意对智能手机、 电脑、芯片等电子产品免除所谓"对等关税"；美联储官员讲话称会在必要时刻支持经济。经济数据方面，美 国 4 月密歇根消费者信心暴跌，长短期通胀预期飙涨、短期创 1981 年来新高。库存数据方面，印度 2 月白银 进口减至 250 吨左右；上期所白银库存周五减少 19 吨至 992 吨，金交所白银库存上周增加 37 吨 1768 吨。 伦敦 3 月库存减少 335 吨至 22124 吨，主要流向美国。近期国内白银价格反弹，现货消费较好，库存去化。 操作上，黄金短期市场预期一致，建议多单持有，白银空单适当减仓或者做多金银比。风险点：贸易战反复 基本金属 招商评论 | | 2505 合约收盘价较前一交易日-0.56%，收于 19695 元/吨，国内 0-3 10 元/吨， 市场表现：周五电解铝 月差 | | --- | --- | | | LME 价格 2397 美元/吨。 | | | 基本面：供应方面，电解铝厂维持高负荷生产，运行 ...

金融研究 2025年4月11日 星期五 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：4 月 10 日，A 股四大股指延续强势，其中上证指数上涨 1.16%，报收 3223.64 点；深成 指上涨 2.25%，报收 9754.64 点；创业板指上涨 2.27%，报收 1900.53 点；科创 50 指数上涨 1.09%， 报收 991.22 点。市场成交 16,590 亿元，较前日减少 820 亿元。行业板块方面，商贸零售(+4.83%)， 纺织服饰(+3.78%)，有色金属(+3.42%)涨幅居前；煤炭(+0.09%)，公用事业(+0.19%)，农林牧渔 (+0.52%)跌幅居前。从市场强弱看，IM>IC>IF>IH，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 4,948/72/382。沪深两市， 机构、主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入 158、-78、-154、75 亿元，分别变动+41、+4、-17、 -28 亿元。 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 118.39、91.86、35.32 与 16.62 点，基差年化收益率分 别为-21.32%、-17.26%、-9.85% ...

期货研究 2025年04月11日 星期五 商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 招商评论 贵 金 属 市场表现：周四贵金属价格继续反弹，以伦敦金计价的国际金价再创新高；消息面，美国众议院以 217 票赞 成、213 票反对的表决结果，通过了一份预算框架议案；特朗普称不排除延长 90 天关税暂停期的可能性。经 济数据方面，美国 3 月 CPI 数据表现低于预期，同比上涨 2.4%，为 7 个月来最低水平，略低于预期的 2.5%， 较前值 2.8%明显下降；环比-0.1%，为 2024 年 6 月以来首次为负，核心 CPI 同比上涨 2.8%，涨幅为连续第 二个月回落，创 2021 年 3 月以来最低记录，低于预期的 3%，前值为 3.1%；核心 CPI 环比 0.1%。库存数据 方面，印度 2 月白银进口减至 250 吨左右；上期所白银库存昨日减少 28 吨至 1012 吨，金交所白银库存上周 增加 37 吨 1768 吨。伦敦 3 月库存减少 335 吨至 22124 吨，主要流向美国。近期国内白银价格反弹，现货消 费较好，库存去化。操作上，贸易战反复，建议白银空单控制仓位或者做多金银比。风险点：贸易战反复 基 ...

金融研究 2025年4月10日 星期四 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：4 月 9 日，A 股四大股指延续强势，其中上证指数上涨 1.31%，报收 3186.81 点；深成指 上涨 1.22%，报收 9539.89 点；创业板指上涨 0.98%，报收 1858.36 点；科创 50 指数上涨 4.31%， 报收 980.57 点。市场成交 17,410 亿元，较前日增加 878 亿元。行业板块方面，农林牧渔(+0.58%)， 商贸零售(+5.18%)，食品饮料(+1.21%)涨幅居前；电子(+3.24%)，汽车(+1.23%)，通信(+2.24%)跌 幅居前。从市场强弱看，IM>IC>IF>IH，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 4,526/99/777。沪深两市，机构、主 力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入 117、-82、-137、103 亿元，分别变动+377、+317、-127、-567 亿元。 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 138.33、107.77、46.59 与 21.3 点，基差年化收益率分 别为-24.47%、-19.81%、-12.64%与-8.2%，三年期历 ...

2025年04月10日 星期四 商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 招商评论 贵 金 属 市场表现：周三贵金属价格反弹；消息面，美联储会议纪要显示大多数官员担心关税对通胀影响持续更久， 一些人表示若通胀持续存在，增长和就业前景却减弱，可能面临"艰难取舍"；几乎全体支持上月会议的放慢 缩表决定，但多人认为此次会议没有信服的放慢理由；特朗普表示暂缓对中国以外国家的关税 90 天；经济数 据方面，欧央行表示贸易战可能拖累欧盟 GDP 约 0.25%，全年增速仅 1%。库存数据方面，印度 2 月白银进 口减至 250 吨左右；上期所白银库存昨日减少 64 吨至 1060 吨，金交所白银库存上周增加 37 吨 1768 吨。伦 敦 3 月库存减少 335 吨至 22124 吨，主要流向美国。近期国内白银价格走低，点价盘涌现，出现库存去化。 操作上，贸易战反复，建议白银空单控制仓位或者做多金银比。风险点：贸易战反复 基本金属 招商评论 铜 市场表现：昨日铜价震荡偏弱运行，但凌晨一点之后特朗普宣布对除了中国外的大部分国家关税下调到 10% 且暂缓 90 天增税，外盘铜价大幅上行。精废价差 1500 元左右。交易策略：建议逢 ...