1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - The overall market shows a complex and diversified situation across different commodity sectors. Some sectors are influenced by factors such as policy changes, supply - demand imbalances, and macro - economic conditions. Investment strategies vary from sector to sector, including suggestions to buy, sell, or wait and see [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11] 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - **Gold**: Prices rose last Friday due to the ongoing Trump - Fed officials' game. The US court's ruling on tariffs, PCE data, and Fed officials' statements affected the market. With the Fed's independence questioned and high probability of rate cuts, it is recommended to go long on gold. COMEX gold inventory increased by 6 tons to 1205 tons, and上期所黄金库存 increased by 2 tons to 39 tons [1] - **Silver**: Followed gold's rise. As it enters the US critical minerals list and faces tariff threats, there are short - term long - trading opportunities. The global largest silver etf - iShares holding decreased by 22 tons to 15310 tons [1] Base Metals - **Copper**: The price was oscillating strongly. The weakening dollar index supported metal prices. The supply of copper ore remained tight, and it is recommended to buy on dips [2] - **Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum price is expected to continue oscillating. Supply is stable, and downstream demand is recovering, but inventory accumulation suppresses the market. It is recommended to buy on dips [2] - **Alumina**: The price is expected to oscillate weakly. Supply is in a loose pattern, with rising warehouse receipts and falling overseas prices. Sellers of call options are recommended for those holding spot [2] - **Industrial Silicon**: The policy - expected trading sentiment cooled. The market is expected to oscillate weakly between 7600 - 9100 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see [3] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term sentiment cooled. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see, buy on dips with a small position, or buy call options after volatility drops [3] - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The market is in a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern. The impact of production - limit policies on contracts varies. It is necessary to focus on the implementation of production - limit and storage - collection plans [3] - **Tin**: The price rose and then fell. Supply is expected to increase, and it is recommended to adopt an oscillating trading approach in the short term [3] Black Industry - **Rebar**: The market is seasonally weak with obvious structural differentiation. It is recommended to short - sell the 2601 contract of rebar in the short term [4][5] - **Iron Ore**: Supply - demand is marginally weakening. It is recommended to short - sell the 2601 contract of iron ore in the short term [5] - **Coking Coal**: Supply - demand is relatively loose but improving. It is recommended to short - sell the 2601 contract of coking coal [5] Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term US soybeans are strong, while the domestic market is weak. The medium - term trend depends on tariff policies [6] - **Corn**: The futures are expected to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to wait and see [6] - **Sugar**: Internationally, the Brazilian sugar production dominates. Domestically, the 01 contract may oscillate and rebound slightly, and then oscillate weakly. It is recommended to short - sell in the futures market and sell call options [6][7] - **Cotton**: It is recommended to wait and see, with an oscillating strategy between 13800 - 14500 yuan/ton [7] - **Log**: The 11 - contract is expected to fluctuate around 800 yuan/cubic meter. It is recommended to wait and see [7] - **Palm Oil**: In the short term, the oil market is weak, but in the medium - term, it is still bullish. It is necessary to focus on production areas' output and biodiesel policies [7] - **Eggs**: After continuous decline, the futures are expected to oscillate. It is recommended to wait and see [7] - **Hogs**: The spot price is expected to stop falling and stabilize in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see in the futures market [7][8] Energy and Chemicals - **LLDPE**: In the short term, it oscillates, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short - sell the far - month contract or conduct a reverse spread on the month - difference. The supply is increasing, and the demand is improving [9] - **PVC**: The supply - demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see. The supply is increasing, and the demand is about to enter the peak season [9] - **PTA**: Short - term supply tightens, but in the long - term, it is recommended to short - sell the processing margin of the far - month contract. The short - term PX accumulates inventory, and PTA reduces inventory [9] - **Rubber**: It is recommended to hold long positions and be cautious about chasing up. The inventory is decreasing, and the raw material support is strong [9][10] - **Glass**: The supply - demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see. The inventory is seasonally decreasing [10] - **PP**: In the short term, it oscillates weakly, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short - sell the far - month contract or conduct a reverse spread on the month - difference. The supply and demand are both increasing [10] - **MEG**: It is recommended to short - sell on rallies, paying attention to peak - season orders. The supply is increasing, and the inventory is expected to accumulate [10] - **Styrene**: In the short term, it oscillates weakly, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short - sell the far - month contract or short - sell the profit. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand needs to be observed during the peak season [10][11] - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see. The inventory is at a high level [11] - **Caustic Soda**: It is recommended to over - allocate. The demand is seasonally starting, and the inventory is decreasing [11]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Views - For stock index futures, the report maintains a long - term bullish view on the economy. It suggests allocating long - term contracts of various varieties on dips, while noting short - term market cooling signs [1]. - For treasury bond futures, considering the upward risk appetite and economic recovery expectations, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies for the medium - to - long term [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On August 29, most of the four major A - share stock indexes rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.37% to 3857.93 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.99% to 12696.15 points, and the ChiNext Index up 2.23% to 2890.13 points, while the Sci - tech Innovation 50 Index fell 1.71% to 1341.31 points. Market turnover was 28,302 billion yuan, a decrease of 170.7 billion yuan from the previous day. In terms of industry sectors, comprehensive (+3.86%), power equipment (+3.12%), and non - ferrous metals (+2.44%) led the gains, while household appliances (-1.82%), transportation (-1.69%), and computers (-1.48%) led the losses. In terms of market strength, IF>IH>IC>IM, and the number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 1,997/121/3,306 respectively. Institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors' net inflows were - 24.7 billion, - 28 billion, 11.7 billion, and 41.1 billion yuan respectively, with changes of - 12.5 billion, - 1.3 billion, + 13.5 billion, and + 0.3 billion yuan respectively [1]. - **Basis and Annualized Yield**: The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH was 133.68, 95.74, - 4.04, and - 0.33 points respectively, with annualized basis yields of - 14.98%, - 11.33%, 0.75%, and 0.09% respectively, and three - year historical quantiles of 13%, 12%, 65%, and 45% respectively [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Maintain a long - term bullish view on the economy, recommend allocating long - term contracts of various varieties on dips; note short - term market cooling signs [1]. b) Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: On August 29, the yields of treasury bond futures declined across the board. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond was 1.371, down 3.05 bps from the previous day; the five - year bond was 1.623, down 1.08 bps; the ten - year bond was 1.763, down 0.23 bps; and the thirty - year bond was 2.114, down 0.09 bps [1]. - **Cash Bonds**: The current active contract is the 2512 contract. For the two - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250012.IB, with a yield change of - 1.2 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.003, and an IRR of 1.51%; for the five - year, the CTD bond is 250003.IB, yield change - 2 bps, net basis 0.079, IRR 1.25%; for the ten - year, the CTD bond is 220019.IB, yield change - 0.75 bps, net basis 0.127, IRR 1.09%; for the thirty - year, the CTD bond is 210005.IB, yield change - 0.75 bps, net basis 0.218, IRR 0.98% [1]. - **Funding Situation**: In open - market operations, the central bank injected 782.9 billion yuan and withdrew 361.2 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 421.7 billion yuan [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Considering the upward risk appetite and economic recovery expectations, recommend medium - to - long - term hedging of T and TL contracts on rallies [1]. c) Economic Data - **High - Frequency Data**: High - frequency data shows that the recent social activity sentiment is weak [8]. d) Short - Term Funding Rates - **SHIBOR Overnight**: The current SHIBOR overnight rate is 1.331, compared with 1.316 the previous day, 1.418 a week ago, and 1.366 a month ago [8].

Report Overview - The report is titled "Financial Futures Morning Express" and is issued by China Merchants Futures Co., Ltd. on August 29, 2025 [1] Market Performance Stock Index Futures - On August 28, the four major A - share stock indexes all rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.14% to 3843.6 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up 2.25% to 12571.37 points, the ChiNext Index up 3.82% to 2827.17 points, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index up 7.23% to 1364.6 points. Market turnover was 30,009 billion yuan, a decrease of 1,969 billion yuan from the previous day [2] - In terms of industry sectors, communication (+7.14%), electronics (+5.53%), and national defense and military industry (+2.29%) led the gains, while coal (-0.81%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (-0.73%), and textile and apparel (-0.47%) led the losses [2] - From the perspective of market strength, IC > IF > IM > IH, and the number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 2,867/157/2,400 respectively. The net inflows of institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were - 122, - 268, - 18, and 408 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +285, +238, - 175, and - 348 billion yuan respectively [2] - The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH was 141.31, 89.96, 9.18, and - 1.27 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were - 15.3%, - 10.35%, - 1.66%, and 0.35% respectively, with three - year historical quantiles of 12%, 14%, 40%, and 47% respectively [2] Bond Futures - On August 28, the yields of treasury bond futures all rose. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond was 1.403, up 1.46 bps from the previous day; the implied interest rate of the five - year bond was 1.636, up 2.16 bps; the implied interest rate of the ten - year bond was 1.765, up 1.75 bps; and the implied interest rate of the thirty - year bond was 2.118, up 3.68 bps [3] - For the current active 2512 contract, the CTD bond of the 2 - year treasury bond futures was 250012.IB, with a yield change of +1.2 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.036, and an IRR of 1.42%; the CTD bond of the 5 - year treasury bond futures was 250003.IB, with a yield change of +1.75 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.053, and an IRR of 1.36%; the CTD bond of the 10 - year treasury bond futures was 220017.IB, with a yield change of +4 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.098, and an IRR of 1.21%; the CTD bond of the 30 - year treasury bond futures was 210005.IB, with a yield change of +3.5 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.15, and an IRR of 1.18% [3] Capital Market - In terms of open - market operations, the central bank injected 4,161 billion yuan and withdrew 2,530 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 1,631 billion yuan [4] Trading Strategies Stock Index Futures - In the medium and long term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy. Currently, using stock index as a long - position substitute has certain excess returns. It is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of various varieties on dips. In the short term, the market shows signs of cooling [3] Bond Futures - With the upward risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies in the medium and long term [4] Data Tables Stock Index Futures Spot and Futures Market Performance - The table shows the performance of various stock index futures contracts, including code, name, change rate, current price, change, trading volume, trading value, open interest, daily change in open interest, settlement price, basis, and annualized basis yield, as well as the performance of corresponding spot indexes such as CSI 500, SSE 50, etc. [6] Treasury Bond Futures Spot and Futures Market Performance - The table presents the performance of various treasury bond futures contracts, including code, name, change rate, current price, trading volume, trading value, open interest, daily change in open interest, settlement price, net basis, CTD bond implied interest rate, and spot bond yield, as well as the performance of corresponding spot treasury bonds [8] Short - term Capital Interest Rate Market Changes - The table shows the current price, previous price, price one week ago, and price one month ago of SHIBOR overnight [11] Figures Treasury Bond Spot Term Structure - The figure shows the term structure of treasury bond spot yields at different time points from 2024/8/28 to 2025/8/28 for different maturities ranging from 3 months to 30 years [10] Domestic Meso - level Data Tracking - Based on the changes (month - on - month of year - on - year) of meso - level data in each module compared with the same period in the past five years, scores are assigned (-2 to +2). Positive scores represent an improvement in the prosperity index, negative scores represent a decline, and a score of zero represents little change [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The independence of the Federal Reserve is challenged, the logic of de - dollarization remains unchanged, and the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut has increased significantly. Gold and silver are recommended for long - positions. For base metals, copper and tin are recommended for buying on dips, aluminum for buying on dips with an expected price increase, while zinc for short - selling on rallies, and lead for range - bound trading. For industrial silicon, it is recommended to wait and see as the price is expected to fluctuate within a certain range. For polycrystalline silicon, pay attention to the implementation of production limits during the transition period [1][2][3]. - In the black industry, close short positions in the rebar 2510 contract, and mainly wait and see for iron ore and coking coal [4]. - In the agricultural products market, short - term US soybeans are strong, while the domestic market is weak in the short - term. Corn futures are expected to fluctuate after a continuous decline. For sugar, short on the futures market and sell call options. For cotton, buy on dips. For palm oil, it is still bullish but difficult to trade after the valuation increase. For eggs, wait and see due to strong supply and weak demand. For live pigs, the spot price is expected to stop falling and stabilize, and wait and see for futures. For apples, wait and see as the current price is mainly in a range - bound state [5][6][7]. - In the energy and chemical industry, LLDPE is expected to be range - bound in the short - term and supply will be more abundant in the long - term, so it is recommended to short far - month contracts on rallies. PVC and glass are recommended to wait and see as the supply - demand situation is weak but the downside is limited. Rubber is recommended to hold long positions. PP is expected to be range - bound and weak in the short - term and supply will be more abundant in the long - term, so short far - month contracts on rallies. For crude oil, look for short - selling opportunities at around 500 yuan/barrel for the SC main contract. For styrene, it is expected to be range - bound and weak in the short - term and supply will be more abundant in the long - term, so short far - month contracts on rallies. For soda ash, wait and see as the downside is limited. For caustic soda, it is recommended to go long as the supply - demand is healthy [8][9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory Precious Metals - **Gold**: Prices continued to rebound on Thursday. The US second - quarter GDP was revised up, and initial jobless claims decreased. The independence of the Federal Reserve is challenged, and the probability of an interest rate cut has increased. Domestic gold ETF funds had a small inflow. It is recommended to go long on gold [1]. - **Silver**: Followed gold's trend. As it is on the US critical minerals list, there is a threat of increased tariffs, and there are short - term long - position opportunities [1]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The price oscillated strongly. The dollar index weakened due to concerns about Trump's intervention in the Fed's independence. The supply of copper ore remained tight, and it is recommended to buy on dips [1]. - **Aluminum**: The price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract decreased slightly. The supply of electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the demand (aluminum product start - up rate) increased slightly. It is expected that the price will increase and recommended to buy on dips [1]. - **Alumina**: The price of the main contract increased slightly. The supply of alumina was stable, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production. The fundamental situation is in surplus, and it is not advisable to short aggressively. If holding spot, sell call options [1][2]. - **Zinc**: The price of the main contract decreased. The supply increased significantly, the processing fee increased, and the consumption was in the off - season. The domestic social inventory increased, while the LME inventory decreased. It is recommended to short on rallies [2]. - **Lead**: The price of the main contract increased slightly. The supply is expected to tighten, but the current spot circulation is still abundant. The consumption peak season has not recovered significantly, and the social inventory has accumulated. It is recommended for range - bound trading [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of the main contract increased. The supply increased, and both social and warehouse receipt inventories decreased slightly. The demand for polysilicon increased slightly, while the production of silicone decreased. The downstream demand for aluminum alloy was in the off - season. It is recommended to wait and see as the price is expected to fluctuate between 8200 - 9200 [2]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The price of the main contract increased. The production increased in August, and the inventory decreased significantly. The downstream product prices were stable, and the third - quarter photovoltaic installation demand was pessimistic. Pay attention to the implementation of production limits during the transition period, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 45,000 - 53,000 [2]. - **Tin**: The price oscillated strongly. The dollar index weakened. The supply of tin ore was tight in the short - term, but there was an expectation of increased supply. It is recommended to buy on dips [2][3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The price of the main contract increased slightly. The apparent demand and production of rebar both increased. The supply - demand of building materials was slightly weak, while the demand for plates was stable. The overall supply - demand of steel was balanced, but there was obvious structural differentiation. Close short positions in the rebar 2510 contract, and the reference range for RB10 is 3080 - 3160 [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of the main contract increased slightly. The port inventory decreased, and the iron - making water production decreased slightly. The supply - demand of iron ore was slightly strong, but the marginal situation weakened. The futures valuation was high. It is recommended to wait and see, and the reference range for I09 is 765 - 795 [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of the main contract increased slightly. The iron - making water production decreased slightly, and the steel mill profit margin narrowed. The overall supply - demand was relatively loose, but the fundamentals were improving. The futures valuation was high. Close short positions in the coking coal 2601 contract, and the reference range for JM01 is 1120 - 1180 [4]. Agricultural Products Market - **Soybean Meal**: Overnight CBOT soybeans rose slightly. The near - term US soybean production decreased, while the long - term South American production is expected to increase. The short - term US soybeans are strong, while the domestic market is weak in the short - term and depends on tariff policies in the medium - term [5]. - **Corn**: The price of the 2511 contract rebounded, while the spot price decreased. Wheat substitutes for corn in feed demand, and the import of grains increased the market supply. The futures are expected to fluctuate after a continuous decline, and it is recommended to wait and see [6]. - **Sugar**: The price of the 01 contract decreased slightly. Internationally, Brazil's high production is the main factor pressing down the raw sugar price. Domestically, the spot price has stabilized. Short on the futures market and sell call options [6]. - **Cotton**: Overnight US cotton futures rose. Internationally, US cotton exports increased, and India extended the exemption of cotton import tariffs. Domestically, the spot is in short supply. Buy on dips [6]. - **Palm Oil**: The price of palm oil decreased. The supply is in the seasonal increase period, and the demand has improved. The overall supply and demand are increasing, with inventory accumulation in the near - term and a tight expectation in the long - term. It is still bullish but difficult to trade after the valuation increase [6]. - **Eggs**: The price of the 2510 contract continued to decline, and the spot price decreased slightly. The egg - laying rate decreased seasonally, the demand from food factories increased seasonally, but the supply was abundant. It is recommended to wait and see due to strong supply and weak demand [6]. - **Live Pigs**: The price of the 2511 contract was weak, and the spot price increased in the north and decreased in the south. The consumption is increasing, the supply is abundant, and the state reserve purchase has started. The spot price is expected to stop falling and stabilize, and wait and see for futures [6]. - **Apples**: The price of the main contract increased. The price of early - maturing apples has decreased, but fruit farmers still have expectations for the price of late - maturing apples. The current price is mainly in a range - bound state, and it is recommended to wait and see [7]. Energy and Chemical Industry - **LLDPE**: The price of the main contract decreased slightly. The supply increased, the import decreased, and the demand for agricultural films is in the peak season and is improving. In the short - term, it is range - bound, and in the long - term, the supply - demand will be more abundant, so short far - month contracts on rallies [8]. - **PVC**: The price of the V01 contract decreased. The supply increased, the export is expected to weaken, and the social inventory increased. The supply - demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [8]. - **Rubber**: The price of the main contract increased. The inventory continued to decrease, and the raw material support is strong. It is recommended to hold long positions [8]. - **Glass**: The price of the FG01 contract decreased. The supply is expected to increase slightly, the inventory decreased, and the downstream demand is still weak. The supply - demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **PP**: The price of the main contract decreased slightly. The supply increased, the export window opened, and the demand is in the peak season and is improving. In the short - term, it is range - bound and weak, and in the long - term, the supply - demand will be more abundant, so short far - month contracts on rallies [10]. - **Crude Oil**: The price increased at night. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand peak season is coming to an end. The month - spread is weakening, and look for short - selling opportunities for the SC main contract around 500 yuan/barrel [10]. - **Styrene**: The price of the main contract decreased slightly. The supply is expected to increase, the demand is in the peak season and is improving, and the downstream inventory is still high. In the short - term, it is range - bound and weak, and in the long - term, the supply - demand will be more abundant, so short far - month contracts on rallies [10]. - **Soda Ash**: The price of the sa01 contract remained unchanged. The supply has some maintenance, the inventory is at a high level, and the downstream demand is gradually recovering. The downside is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [12]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price of the sh01 contract decreased slightly. The traditional demand is in the peak season, the inventory decreased, and the supply - demand is healthy. It is recommended to go long [12].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For stock index futures, in the medium - long term, maintain the view of being bullish on the economy, and recommend allocating long - term contracts of each variety on dips; in the short term, the market shows signs of cooling [1]. - For bond futures, with the increase in risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies in the medium - long term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory (1) Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On August 27, the four major A - share stock indexes adjusted. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.76% to 3800.35 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 1.43% to 12295.07 points, the ChiNext Index declined 0.69% to 2723.2 points, and the STAR 50 Index rose 0.13% to 1272.56 points. Market turnover was 31,978 billion yuan, an increase of 4,880 billion yuan from the previous day. In terms of industry sectors, communication (+1.66%) led the gainers, while beauty care (-3.86%) led the decliners. From the perspective of market strength, IC > IF > IH > IM. The number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 633/29/4,761 respectively. Institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net capital inflows of - 407, - 506, 157, and 756 billion yuan respectively, with changes of - 216, - 238, +126, and +328 billion yuan respectively [1]. - **Basis and Annualized Yield**: The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH were 101.5, 68.76, 8.93, and 0.18 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were - 10.81%, - 7.83%, - 1.59%, and - 0.05% respectively, with three - year historical quantiles of 32%, 25%, 41%, and 43% respectively [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the medium - long term, maintain the view of being bullish on the economy, and it is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of each variety on dips; in the short term, the market shows signs of cooling [1]. (2) Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: On August 27, most yields of bond futures declined. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond was 1.379, down 0.93 bps from the previous day; the implied interest rate of the five - year bond was 1.605, down 0.96 bps; the implied interest rate of the ten - year bond was 1.744, up 0.22 bps; and the implied interest rate of the thirty - year bond was 2.073, down 0.87 bps [1]. - **Cash Bond**: The current active contract is the 2512 contract. The CTD bond of the two - year bond futures is 250012.IB, with a yield change of - 1 bps, corresponding to a net basis of 0.014 and an IRR of 1.47%; the CTD bond of the five - year bond futures is 250003.IB, with a yield change of +0.25 bps, corresponding to a net basis of - 0.004 and an IRR of 1.52%; the CTD bond of the ten - year bond futures is 220017.IB, with a yield change of - 0.5 bps, corresponding to a net basis of 0.097 and an IRR of 1.25%; the CTD bond of the thirty - year bond futures is 210005.IB, with a yield change of +0.75 bps, corresponding to a net basis of - 0.093 and an IRR of 1.76% [1]. - **Funding Situation**: In terms of open - market operations, the central bank injected 3,799 billion yuan and withdrew 6,160 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2,361 billion yuan [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: With the increase in risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies in the medium - long term [2]. (3) Economic Data High - frequency data shows that the recent social activity sentiment is weak [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides trading strategies and market analyses for various commodity futures, including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It takes into account factors such as supply - demand dynamics, macro - economic conditions, and policy changes to make investment suggestions [2][6][7]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - **Gold**: Given that the Fed's independence is questioned, the de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, and the probability of Fed rate cuts has increased significantly, it is recommended to go long on gold. Silver has followed gold's rally, and there are short - term long - trading opportunities due to its entry into the US critical minerals list and the threat of increased tariffs [2]. - **Silver**: Follows gold's trend. With the threat of increased tariffs after entering the US critical minerals list, there are short - term long - trading opportunities [2]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The market showed a volatile trend. With the Fed's independence challenged, the dollar index weakened, and market concerns about radical rate cuts emerged. It is recommended to buy on dips [2]. - **Aluminum**: The price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract increased slightly. With signs of improvement in the macro - environment and industry supply - demand, and the approaching peak season, it is expected that the price will be volatile and bullish, and it is recommended to buy on dips [2]. - **Alumina**: The price of the main contract decreased. The fundamentals remain in an oversupply situation, and it is not advisable to chase short positions. If holding spot, one can sell call options [2][4]. - **Zinc**: The price of the main contract increased slightly. Supply has increased significantly, while consumption is in the off - season. It is recommended to sell on rallies [4]. - **Lead**: The price of the main contract decreased slightly. Supply is expected to tighten, but the market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to conduct range trading [4]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of the main contract fluctuated. The supply side has some issues, and the demand side is mixed. The price is expected to oscillate between 8200 - 9200 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to wait and see [4]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The price of the main contract decreased. Supply is strong while demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate between 45,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the implementation of production restrictions [4]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The price of the main contract was weak. The supply - demand of building materials is neutral to weak, and it is recommended to hold short positions in the 2510 contract [5][6]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of the main contract was weak. The supply - demand is neutral to strong, but the margin is slightly weakening. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of the main contract decreased. The supply - demand is relatively loose, and it is recommended to hold short positions in the 2601 contract [6]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The short - term US soybeans are bullish, while the domestic market is affected by negotiation expectations and state reserves sales. The medium - term trend depends on tariff policies [7]. - **Corn**: The futures are expected to oscillate after continuous declines, and it is recommended to wait and see [7]. - **Sugar**: The international market is affected by Brazil's production, and the domestic market shows signs of stabilization. It is recommended to go short in the futures market and sell call options in the options market [8]. - **Cotton**: The international cotton has some growth issues, and the domestic market is concerned about spot shortages. It is recommended to buy on dips and use a range - trading strategy between 14,000 - 14,500 yuan/ton [8]. - **Palm Oil**: The supply - demand is increasing, with near - term inventory accumulation and long - term tightness expected. The overall outlook for oils is bullish, but trading becomes more difficult after the valuation rises [8]. - **Apples**: The price of early - maturing apples has declined, but farmers' expectations for late - maturing apples support the market. The market is expected to oscillate [8]. - **Eggs**: The futures are expected to oscillate after continuous declines, and it is recommended to wait and see [8]. - **Pigs**: The spot price is expected to stop falling and stabilize in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see in the futures market [9]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: In the short term, the market is expected to oscillate. In the long term, as new devices are put into operation, the supply - demand will become looser, and it is recommended to short far - month contracts or conduct reverse spreads [10]. - **PVC**: The price decreased. The trading driver is unclear, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **PTA**: In the short term, the supply has tightened significantly, but the sustainability is uncertain. In the long term, the supply pressure is large, and it is recommended to short the processing margin of far - month contracts [10][11]. - **Rubber**: With inventory reduction and strong raw material support, it is recommended to buy on dips [11]. - **Glass**: The supply - demand is weak, but the downside is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [11]. - **PP**: In the short term, the market is expected to be weakly oscillating. In the long term, as new devices are put into operation, the supply - demand will become looser, and it is recommended to short far - month contracts or conduct reverse spreads [11]. - **MEG**: With low inventory providing support, but medium - term inventory accumulation pressure, it is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to peak - season orders [11]. - **Crude Oil**: The market is expected to be in surplus, and it is recommended to short the SC main contract near 500 yuan/barrel [12]. - **Styrene**: In the short term, the market is expected to be weakly oscillating. In the long term, as supply recovers, the supply - demand will become looser, and it is recommended to short far - month contracts or short the profit margin [12]. - **Soda Ash**: The downside is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [12]. - **Caustic Soda**: The supply - demand is seasonally strengthening, and it is recommended to go long [12].

Report Overview - The report is a financial futures morning report released by China Merchants Futures Co., Ltd. on August 27, 2025, covering the performance and trading strategies of stock index futures and treasury bond futures on August 26, 2025 [1][2] Market Performance Stock Index Futures - On August 26, the four major A-share stock indices showed mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.39% to 3,868.38 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.26% to 12,473.17 points, the ChiNext Index fell 0.76% to 2,742.13 points, and the STAR 50 Index fell 1.31% to 1,270.87 points. Market turnover was 2.7098 trillion yuan, a decrease of 467.1 billion yuan from the previous day [2] - In terms of industry sectors, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (+2.62%), beauty care (+2.04%), and basic chemicals (+1.26%) led the gains, while pharmaceutical biology (-1.09%), non-bank finance (-1.06%), and steel (-0.98%) led the losses [2] - From the perspective of market strength, IC > IM > IF > IH, and the number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 2,802/152/2,469 respectively. In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, main, large, and retail investors had net inflows of -19.2 billion, -26.8 billion, 3.1 billion, and 42.8 billion yuan respectively, with changes of -5.3 billion, +3.6 billion, -2.2 billion, and +3.9 billion yuan respectively [2] - The basis of the next-month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH was 113.87, 82.87, 10.99, and -2.22 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were -11.54%, -9.01%, -1.87%, and 0.57% respectively, with three-year historical quantiles of 28%, 18%, 39%, and 51% respectively [2] Treasury Bond Futures - On August 26, the yields of treasury bond futures mostly declined. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two-year bond was 1.383, up 0.53 bps from the previous day; the implied interest rate of the five-year bond was 1.612, down 0.12 bps; the implied interest rate of the ten-year bond was 1.735, down 1.42 bps; and the implied interest rate of the thirty-year bond was 2.079, down 1.94 bps [2] - In terms of cash bonds, the current active contract is the 2512 contract. The CTD bond of the two-year treasury bond futures is 250012.IB, with a yield change of -0.25 bps, a corresponding net basis of -0.004, and an IRR of 1.5%; the CTD bond of the five-year treasury bond futures is 250003.IB, with a yield change of -0.8 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.029, and an IRR of 1.4%; the CTD bond of the ten-year treasury bond futures is 220017.IB, with a yield change of -0.5 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.123, and an IRR of 1.09%; the CTD bond of the thirty-year treasury bond futures is 210005.IB, with a yield change of -2 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.222, and an IRR of 0.96% [2] - In terms of the money market, in open market operations, the central bank injected 405.8 billion yuan and withdrew 580.3 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 174.5 billion yuan [2] Trading Strategies Stock Index Futures - In the medium to long term, the report maintains the judgment of going long on the economy. Currently, using stock index futures as a long substitute has certain excess returns, and it is recommended to allocate long-term contracts of various varieties on dips. In the short term, there are signs of market cooling [2] Treasury Bond Futures - With the upward shift in risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies in the medium to long term [2] Economic Data - High-frequency data shows that the recent social activity sentiment is weak [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It offers market performance, fundamental analysis, and trading strategies for each commodity, taking into account factors such as supply and demand, macro - economic conditions, and policy changes. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - **Gold**: Market price strengthened on Tuesday. Trump's actions and statements increased the probability of Fed rate - cuts. Domestic gold ETF funds had a small outflow, and inventories in some exchanges remained stable. Suggested to go long on gold [1]. - **Silver**: Followed gold's sharp rise, but with continuous inventory reduction. Recommended to temporarily stay on the sidelines [1]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Price oscillated strongly. Trump's intervention weakened the US dollar, supporting metals. With a tight copper ore supply and a strong market expectation of rate - cuts, it is advisable to buy on dips [2]. - **Aluminum**: The price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract decreased slightly. Supply increased slightly, and demand improved. With the approaching peak season, it is expected that the price will oscillate strongly, and it is recommended to buy on dips [2]. - **Alumina**: The price of the main contract decreased significantly. Supply was stable, and demand was from high - load electrolytic aluminum plants. The fundamental situation was in surplus, and it is not advisable to short excessively. Those holding spot can sell call options [2]. - **Zinc**: The price of the main contract decreased. Supply increased significantly, and consumption was in the off - season. It is recommended to short on rallies [3]. - **Lead**: The price of the main contract increased slightly. Supply was expected to tighten, and consumption was in the off - season. It is recommended to trade within a range [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price oscillated downward. Supply and demand were both in a complex situation. The price is expected to oscillate between 8200 - 9200, and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of the main contract decreased. Supply decreased, and demand increased. The price is expected to be volatile in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait for stabilization and then buy on dips or buy call options when volatility drops [3]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The price decreased. Supply increased, and demand was relatively stable. The price is expected to fluctuate between 45000 - 53000, and it is recommended to pay attention to production control during the transition period [3][4]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The price of the main contract oscillated weakly. Supply increased, and demand was in the off - season. It is recommended to hold short positions on the 2510 contract [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of the main contract oscillated weakly. Supply and demand were moderately strong, but the margin was weakening. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of the main contract decreased. Supply and demand were relatively loose, but the fundamentals were improving. It is recommended to hold short positions on the 2601 contract [4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: Near - term US soybean supply is expected to shrink, and long - term South American production is expected to increase. Short - term US soybeans are strong, while the domestic market is affected by negotiations and reserve sales. It is necessary to pay attention to future tariff policies [6]. - **Corn**: The price of the 2511 contract oscillated narrowly, and the spot price decreased. Wheat substitution and increased imports put pressure on the price. After continuous decline, the futures are expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see [6]. - **Sugar**: The price of the 01 contract decreased. International Brazilian production is the main factor, and domestic prices are expected to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to short in the futures market and sell call options [6]. - **Cotton**: The international cotton price decreased, and the domestic price stopped falling and rebounded. It is recommended to buy on dips and trade within the range of 14000 - 14500 [6]. - **Palm Oil**: The price continued to decline. Supply is in the seasonal growth period, and demand is improving. In the short - term, it is affected by trade negotiations, and in the medium - term, it is still bullish. It is necessary to pay attention to production in the producing areas and bio - diesel policies [6]. - **Eggs**: The price of the 2510 contract oscillated narrowly, and the spot price increased. Supply was sufficient, and demand might increase seasonally. After continuous decline, the futures are expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see [6]. - **Live Pigs**: The price of the 2511 contract oscillated narrowly, and the spot price decreased. Supply was sufficient, and consumption was gradually recovering. The spot price is expected to stop falling and stabilize in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see for futures [7]. - **Apples**: The price of the main contract decreased slightly. The price of early - maturing apples decreased, but farmers still had expectations for late - maturing varieties. The current price is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see [7]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The price of the main contract decreased slightly. Supply increased, and demand improved. In the short - term, it will oscillate, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short far - month contracts on rallies [8]. - **PVC**: The price of the V01 contract decreased. Supply increased, and demand was average. The trading driver is not clear, and it is recommended to wait and see [8]. - **Glass**: The price of the fg01 contract decreased. Supply was stable, and demand was average. The price is expected to decline slightly, and it is recommended to wait and see [9]. - **PP**: The price of the main contract decreased slightly. Supply increased, and demand improved with the approaching peak season. In the short - term, it will oscillate weakly, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short far - month contracts on rallies [9]. - **Crude Oil**: The price decreased. Supply pressure increased, and demand was relatively stable. It is recommended to short on rallies near the 520 yuan/barrel level of the SC main contract [9]. - **Styrene**: The price of the main contract decreased. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is in the off - season. In the short - term, it will oscillate weakly, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short far - month contracts on rallies [9]. - **Soda Ash**: The price of the SA01 contract decreased. Supply decreased, and demand was stable. The price decline space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price of the sh01 contract decreased. Supply decreased, and demand increased seasonally. It is recommended to go long [10].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Long - term**: Maintain a bullish view on the economy, recommend long - term allocation of forward contracts of various stock index varieties; suggest medium - and long - term hedging for T and TL contracts when prices are high due to rising risk appetite and economic recovery expectations [2][3]. - **Short - term**: The market shows signs of cooling [2]. 3. Summary by Directory (1) Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - **Market Movement**: On August 25, the four major A - share stock indices all rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.51% to 3883.56 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up 2.26% to 12441.07 points, the ChiNext Index up 3% to 2762.99 points, and the STAR 50 Index up 3.2% to 1287.73 points. Market turnover was 31,769 billion yuan, an increase of 5,981 billion yuan from the previous day. In terms of industry sectors, communication (+4.85%), non - ferrous metals (+4.63%), and real estate (+3.32%) led the gains; beauty care (+0.01%), textile and apparel (+0.17%), and petroleum and petrochemicals (+0.39%) led the losses. The strength order was IH>IF>IC>IM, with the number of rising/flat/falling stocks being 3,349/178/1,896 respectively. Institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net inflows of - 139, - 304, 53, and 390 billion yuan respectively, with changes of - 280, - 135, +252, and +163 billion yuan respectively [1]. - **Basis and Annualized Yield**: The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH were 112.73, 75.1, - 2.38, and - 3.15 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were - 11.08%, - 7.94%, 0.39%, and 0.77% respectively, with three - year historical quantiles of 30%, 24%, 63%, and 53% respectively [1]. (2) Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - **Yield Movement**: On August 25, the yields of treasury bond futures declined. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond was 1.372, down 4.78 bps from the previous day; the five - year bond was 1.62, down 3.47 bps; the ten - year bond was 1.755, down 2.83 bps; and the thirty - year bond was 2.102, down 4 bps [2]. - **CTD Bond Information**: For the 2512 contract, the CTD bond of the two - year treasury bond futures was 250012.IB, with a yield change of - 1.5 bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.015, and an IRR of 1.57%; the five - year was 250003.IB, with a yield change of - 1.2 bps, a net basis of 0.023, and an IRR of 1.45%; the ten - year was 220017.IB, with a yield change of - 3 bps, a net basis of 0.099, and an IRR of 1.25%; the thirty - year was 210005.IB, with a yield change of - 3.5 bps, a net basis of 0.286, and an IRR of 0.84% [2]. (3) Economic Data - **High - frequency Data**: High - frequency data shows that the recent social activity sentiment is weak [11]. - **Funding**: In open - market operations, the central bank injected 2,884 billion yuan and withdrew 2,665 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 219 billion yuan [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided about the report industry investment ratings in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, and the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut has increased significantly. It is recommended to go long on gold and temporarily exit and wait and see for silver [1]. - For base metals, it is advisable to buy copper at dips, go long on aluminum at dips, and if holding alumina spot, one can sell call options opportunistically. For industrial silicon, it is recommended to wait and see, while for lithium carbonate, short - term wait - and - see is advised, and then go long with a small position after stabilization or buy call options when volatility declines. For polysilicon, one can try to go long lightly on dips. For tin, it is recommended to buy at dips [1][2][3]. - In the black industry, it is recommended to wait and see on the margin for steel products, try to short the rebar 2510 contract, wait and see mainly for iron ore, and try to short the coking coal 2601 contract [4][5]. - In the agricultural product market, for soybean meal, it is recommended to follow the international cost - end and oscillate strongly, paying attention to tariff policies. For corn, wait and see after continuous decline. For sugar, go short in the futures market and sell call options. For cotton, buy at dips and use an oscillating strategy in the 14000 - 14500 yuan/ton range. For palm oil, it is still bullish on oils, but trading becomes more difficult after valuation increases. For eggs and live pigs, wait and see. For apples, wait and see [6][7]. - In the energy and chemical industry, for LLDPE, it is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term and go short on far - month contracts or conduct reverse spreads on the month - spread at high prices in the long - term. For PVC, wait and see. For PTA, wait and see in the short - term after taking profit on PX, and go short on the processing fee of far - month contracts at high prices. For rubber, hold long positions. For glass, wait and see. For PP, it is expected to oscillate in the short - term and go short on far - month contracts or conduct reverse spreads on the month - spread at high prices in the long - term. For MEG, go short at high prices and pay attention to peak - season orders. For crude oil, look for short - selling opportunities at around 520 yuan/barrel for the SC main contract. For styrene, it is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and in the long - term, go short on far - month contracts or short the styrene profit at high prices. For soda ash, wait and see. For caustic soda, go long [8][9][10]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals - **Gold**: On Monday, precious metal prices oscillated as the market gradually digested Powell's speech. Trump's administration is considering sanctioning EU officials due to the digital service law. Domestic gold ETF funds had a small outflow. COMEX gold inventory remained at 1199 tons, and SHFE gold inventory remained at 37 tons. London's July gold inventory was 8774 tons. It is recommended to go long on gold [1]. - **Silver**: SHFE silver inventory increased by 4 tons to 1113 tons, SGE silver inventory decreased by 64 tons to 1289 tons last week, COMEX silver inventory increased by 7 tons to 15823 tons, and London's July silver inventory increased by 408 tons to 24196 tons. India imported about 200 tons of silver in June. The holdings of the world's largest silver ETF, iShares, increased by 11 tons to 15288 tons. It is recommended to temporarily exit and wait and see [1]. 3.2 Base Metals - **Copper**: Yesterday, copper prices oscillated strongly. The market was still trading on Powell's dovish speech on Friday. The domestic equity market was still hot, and market risk appetite was high. The premium of flat - water copper in East and South China was 100 yuan and 30 yuan respectively, and the weekly inventory decreased by 0.87 million tons. It is recommended to buy at dips [2]. - **Aluminum**: Yesterday, the closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract increased by 0.65% to 20785 yuan/ton. The domestic 0 - 3 month spread was 110 yuan/ton, and the LME price was 2622 US dollars/ton. Electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the operating capacity increased slightly. The weekly aluminum product start - up rate increased slightly. It is expected that the price will oscillate strongly, and it is recommended to go long at dips [2]. - **Alumina**: Yesterday, the closing price of the alumina main contract increased by 1.47% to 3184 yuan/ton, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was 75 yuan/ton. The operating capacity of alumina was stable, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production. Bauxite supply is sufficient, alumina capacity remains high, inventory is continuously released, and the spot price is under downward pressure, but the cost support increases. It is expected that the price will maintain a wide - range oscillation, and if holding spot, one can sell call options opportunistically [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply side saw 1 new furnace opened last week in the country, and the resumption rhythm in the northwest region was less than expected due to raw material supply issues. Social inventory decreased slightly, and warehouse - receipt inventory increased slightly. On the demand side, the start - up of polysilicon maintained a slight increase, the output of silicone decreased month - on - month due to the decline in industrial chain prices, and the downstream demand for aluminum alloy entered the off - season, with a relatively stable start - up rate. The trading logic is centered around the "anti - involution" varieties, and the production plan in Xinjiang should be focused on. The disk is expected to oscillate between 8200 - 9200, and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Yesterday, the main contract LC2511 closed at 79,380 yuan/ton (+420), up 0.5%. The CIF price of Australian spodumene was 920 US dollars/ton (+0), the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price was 82,500 (-1400) yuan/ton, and the basis weakened to +3340 yuan/ton. Last week's weekly output was 19138 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.21%. The production of lithium carbonate from lithium mica decreased by 1250 tons, and the contract production of lithium carbonate from spodumene continued to increase, but the growth rate weakened and was gradually unable to cover the supply gap of lithium carbonate from lithium mica. In August, the peak production season of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials was evident, and the bidding capacity of the energy storage system in July had a bright growth rate. This week's sample inventory was 14.15 million tons, with a destocking of 713 tons. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, and then go long with a small position after stabilization or buy call options when volatility declines [3]. - **Polysilicon**: On Monday, the main contract closed at 51580 yuan/ton, up 175 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the position increased by 5547 lots to 289125 lots. Today, the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 111 lots to 50938 lots. Last week's weekly output increased slightly, and the output in August is expected to increase by about 20% month - on - month. The growth rate of warehouse receipts slowed down last week, and the industry inventory decreased significantly. On the demand side, the prices of downstream products fluctuated little. The production schedules of silicon wafers and battery cells in August met expectations, basically flat compared with July. The photovoltaic installation demand market in the third quarter is relatively pessimistic, and the newly - added photovoltaic installation in July decreased by 47.6% year - on - year. It is recommended to try to go long lightly on dips [3]. - **Tin**: Yesterday, tin prices oscillated strongly. The market was still trading on Powell's dovish speech on Friday. The domestic equity market was still hot, and market risk appetite was high. Domestic warehouse receipts decreased by 21 tons, and the premium of domestic deliverable brands was 300 - 600 yuan. Spot trading was light. It is recommended to buy at dips [3]. 3.3 Black Industry - **Rebar**: The rebar main 2510 contract oscillated weakly and closed at 3130 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price. The rebar inventory in the Gangyin caliber increased by 4.9% week - on - week to 464 million tons, and increased by 6.1% last week. The rebar delivery in Hangzhou over the weekend was 6.8 million tons, 6.6 million tons last week; the inventory was 82.8 million tons, 76.7 million tons last week, and 75.7 million tons in the same period last year. The supply and demand of building materials are moderately weak, and the demand is in the off - season. The previous good profits led to an increase in supply, and the inventory of building materials increased rapidly; the demand for plates is stable, and direct and indirect exports remain at a high level, and the absolute inventory and inventory days remain at the lowest level in history. Overall, the supply and demand of steel are relatively balanced, with no significant total contradiction, but obvious structural differentiation. The futures discount of rebar remains slightly high, and the futures structure of hot - rolled coils has turned to flat water, and the valuation has been continuously improved. It is recommended to wait and see on the margin and try to short the rebar 2510 contract [4][5]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore main 2601 contract oscillated weakly and closed at 783.5 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price. The shipment of Australia and Brazil in the Steel Union caliber increased by 4 million tons to 2760 million tons week - on - week, compared with 150 million tons in the same period last year. The arrival of iron ore decreased by 241 million tons to 2462 million tons week - on - week, a year - on - year decrease of 209 million tons. The port inventory decreased by 56 million tons to 1.44 billion tons week - on - week, a year - on - year decrease of 1419 million tons. The supply and demand of iron ore remained moderately strong, but the margin was slightly weaker. The molten iron output in the Steel Union caliber increased week - on - week and increased by 7% year - on - year. The seventh round of coke price increase has been implemented, and the eighth round has been proposed. The profit of steel mills has shrunk marginally, and the subsequent output will be mainly stable; the supply side conforms to the seasonal law, with a slight year - on - year decrease. The supply and demand of iron ore are moderately strong on the margin, and due to the high base of molten iron demand, it is expected that the subsequent inventory build - up of iron ore will be slower than the seasonal law. Iron ore maintains a forward - discount structure, but the absolute level remains at a relatively low level in the same period in history, and the valuation is neutral. It is recommended to wait and see mainly [5]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal main 2601 contract oscillated upward and closed at 1214.5 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price. The molten iron output in the Steel Union caliber increased by 0.1 million tons to 240.8 million tons week - on - week, a year - on - year increase of 16.3 million tons. The profit of steel mills has shrunk marginally, and the subsequent output will be mainly stable. The seventh round of coke price increase has been implemented, and the eighth round has been proposed. The inventories at various links on the supply side are differentiated. The coking coal inventories and inventory days of steel mills and coking plants remain at the lowest level in the same period in history, while the inventories at links such as mine mouths, ports, and terminals continue to remain at a high level in history. At the same time, the output and mine - mouth inventory decreased month - on - month, and the overall supply and demand are still relatively loose, but the fundamentals are improving month - on - month. The futures are at a premium to the spot, and the forward - premium structure is maintained, and the futures valuation is high. It is recommended to try to short the coking coal 2601 contract [5]. 3.4 Agricultural Product Market - **Soybean Meal**: Overnight, CBOT soybeans fell. On the supply side, the near - term output of US soybeans has shrunk due to a significant reduction in area, while the yield per unit is expected to be good, and the high - frequency weekly good - to - excellent rate is good; in the long - term, South America is expected to increase production, with a slight year - on - year increase overall. On the demand side, demand in South America is gradually decreasing, shifting to US soybeans, but there are still differences in the export demand for new - crop US soybeans, depending on tariff policies. In the short - term, US soybeans are strong, trading on supply contraction, but it is only a quantitative change. Domestic soybean arrivals are high in stages, and high - frequency demand also remains at a high level. It is recommended to follow the international cost - end and oscillate strongly, paying attention to tariff policies [6]. - **Corn**: The corn 2511 contract continued to be weak, and the corn spot price fell. Wheat has high cost - effectiveness and substitutes for corn in feed demand. The weak wheat price suppresses the corn price. The auction of imported grains increases market supply, and the low transaction rate reflects weak market sentiment. Downstream purchasing enthusiasm is not high. The easing of the trade situation increases import expectations, early - spring corn is about to be listed, and the cost of new - crop corn has decreased significantly, suppressing long - term price expectations. The corn spot price is expected to run weakly. It is recommended to wait and see after continuous decline [6]. - **Sugar**: The Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract closed at 5680 yuan/ton, and the estimated profit of Brazilian sugar processed and taxed after the out - of - quota was 436 yuan/ton. Internationally, Brazil's output is still the dominant factor for raw sugar. Pay attention to Brazil's bi - weekly output data. Currently, Brazil is the main reason for pressuring raw sugar, and high production is gradually being realized. Domestically, last week, imported sugar significantly pressured the spot price in the sales area, leading to a lower quotation, but this week, the spot price has shown a stabilizing trend, indicating the Mid - Autumn Festival stocking demand. The Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract rebounded slightly and will be in a weak oscillation later, and will be below 6700 yuan/ton in the long - term. It is recommended to go short in the futures market and sell call options [7]. - **Cotton**: Overnight, the US cotton futures price oscillated and fell, and the US dollar index strengthened significantly. Internationally, as of the week ending August 24, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton dropped to 54%, down from the previous week. The auction reserve price of India's Cotton Corporation S - 6 was stable at 55400 rupees/candy, equivalent to about 81.05 cents/pound. Domestically, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price oscillated upward, and the market continued to focus on the tight spot situation. Yesterday, it was officially announced that 200,000 tons of sliding - scale duty - processing trade quotas would be issued, the same as last year. It is recommended to buy at dips and use an oscillating strategy in the 14000 - 14500 yuan/ton range [7]. - **Palm Oil**: Yesterday, Malaysian palm oil fell. On the supply side, the producing areas are still in the seasonal production - increasing cycle, and the MPOA daily Malaysian palm oil output increased by 3% month - on - month; on the demand side, it is estimated that from August 1 - 20, the situation in the producing areas has improved, and the ITS estimated that the Malaysian palm oil exports from August 1 - 25 increased by 10.9% month - on - month. Overall, the background is one of increasing supply and demand, with near - term inventory accumulation continuing and long - term expectations being tight. Oils are still bullish, but trading becomes more difficult after valuation increases. Pay attention to production in the producing areas and biodiesel policies [7]. - **Eggs**: The egg 2510 contract oscillated narrowly, and the spot price was stable. High temperatures have led to a seasonal decline in the laying rate of laying hens, and downstream food factories are gradually stocking up, so demand may increase seasonally. There are many newly - laid hens, and the willingness to cull old hens is not strong. Cold - storage egg inventory is high, and supply is sufficient. Low vegetable prices suppress demand, and low feed prices have lowered the cost center. It is recommended to wait and see after continuous decline [7]. - **Live Pigs**: The live pig 2511 contract oscillated narrowly, and the live pig spot price fell slightly. Consumption is gradually recovering. The previous slaughter progress was slow, and the slaughter in August increased. In addition, group farms continued to reduce the