期货研究报告 | 商品研究 天然橡胶海外供应专题-产量天花板在哪？ 2025年9月4日 • 招商期货-罗鸣 • luoming @cmschina.com.cn • 联系电话： 19854498995 • 执业资格号： Z0021358 来源：ANPRC，招商期货 目录 01 泰国（约35%） 02 印尼（约17%） contents 03 科特迪瓦（约14%） 天然橡胶全球产量分布 期货研究报告 | 商品研究 天然橡胶生产国联合会（简称ANRPC），成立于1970年10月，是政府间社会组织，秘书处位于马来西亚吉隆坡。其宗旨为协调成员国 间天然橡胶生产合作与技术升级，稳定市场价格，成员包括孟加拉国、柬埔寨、中国、印度、印度尼西亚、马来西亚、缅甸、巴布 亚新几内亚、菲律宾、新加坡、斯里兰卡、泰国及越南13国组成。天然橡胶产能供应集中度较高，东南亚的气候和土壤条件非常适 合天然橡胶种植，ANPRC成员国涵盖了全球大部分天然橡胶主产国。近年来，由于科特迪瓦的产量快速增长与东南亚传统生成国的增 长乏力，ANPRC成员国全球天然橡胶产量占比从2010年的88%降至2024年的79%，未来五年可能进一步跌破75%。 0 ...

2025年09月08日 星期一 商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 | 招商评论 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 贵 | | | | | 市场表现：贵金属继续走强，非农数据远低于预期引发进一步降息预期。 | | | | | | | | | | 金 | 基本面：8 | | 月非农就业增长意外降温，仅增加 | | | 2.2 万人；6 | | | | 月份的就业数据向下修正至负增长；OPEC"原则 | | | | | 属 | 上同意"10 | | 月再次增产。国内黄金 | | ETF | 资金流入，COMEX | | 黄金库存 | | 1211 | 吨，维持不变；上期所黄金库存 | | | | | 43 | 吨，维持不变；伦敦 | | 7 月黄金库存 | 8774 | 吨；上期所白银库存 | | | 1265 | 吨，增加 | 5 吨，金交所白银库存上周 | | | | | 库存 | 1283 吨，增加 | 1.7 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the medium to long term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy. Currently, using stock index as a long - term substitute has certain excess returns, and it is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of various varieties on dips. The short - term market shows signs of cooling [2]. - With the upward risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies in the medium and long term [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On September 4th, the four major A - share stock indexes had a significant correction. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.25% to 3765.88 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.83% to 12118.7 points, the ChiNext Index fell 4.25% to 2776.25 points, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index fell 6.08% to 1226.98 points. Market turnover was 2581.9 billion yuan, an increase of 186.2 billion yuan from the previous day. In terms of industry sectors, commerce and retail (+1.63%), beauty care (+1.19%), and banks (+0.79%) led the gains; communications (-8.48%), electronics (-5.08%), and composites (-4.49%) led the losses. From the perspective of market strength, IH > IF > IM > IC. The number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 2295/139/2990 respectively. In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net capital inflows of -39.3 billion, -28.4 billion, 400 million, and 67.3 billion yuan respectively, with changes of -19 billion, -700 million, -2.8 billion, and +22.5 billion yuan respectively [2]. - **Basis and Annualized Yield**: The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH were 97.15, 109.05, 23.21, and 10.67 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were -13.27%, -15.65%, -5.11%, and -3.53% respectively. The three - year historical percentiles were 20%, 6%, 19%, and 24% respectively [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the medium to long term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy. Currently, using stock index as a long - term substitute has certain excess returns, and it is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of various varieties on dips; the short - term market shows signs of cooling [2]. 3.2 Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: On September 4th, the yields of bond futures declined across the board. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond was 1.362, a decrease of 0 bps from the previous day; the implied interest rate of the five - year bond was 1.566, a decrease of 1.31 bps; the implied interest rate of the ten - year bond was 1.708, a decrease of 0.96 bps; and the implied interest rate of the thirty - year bond was 2.076, a decrease of 1.79 bps [2]. - **Cash Bonds**: The current active contract is the 2512 contract. For the two - year bond futures, the CTD bond is 250012.IB, with a yield change of +1.75 bps, a corresponding net basis of -0.032, and an IRR of 1.56%; for the five - year bond futures, the CTD bond is 250003.IB, with a yield change of +1.15 bps, a corresponding net basis of -0.048, and an IRR of 1.62%; for the ten - year bond futures, the CTD bond is 220017.IB, with a yield change of -1.75 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.048, and an IRR of 1.31%; for the thirty - year bond futures, the CTD bond is 210005.IB, with a yield change of -1 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.276, and an IRR of 0.73% [2]. - **Funding Situation**: In terms of open - market operations, the central bank injected 212.6 billion yuan and withdrew 416.1 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 203.5 billion yuan [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: With the upward risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies in the medium and long term [2]. 3.3 Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the recent social activity sentiment is weak [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of the commodity futures market is complex, with different trends and trading strategies for various commodities. The Fed's policy, economic data, supply - demand relationships, and policy changes are important factors affecting the market [1][2]. - For precious metals, the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut increases, and there are long - term opportunities for gold and short - term opportunities for silver [1]. - In the base metals market, the supply and demand of different metals vary, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed, such as buying aluminum at low prices, temporarily observing alumina, short - selling zinc at high prices, etc. [2]. - In the black industry, the supply - demand relationship of steel products is seasonally weak with obvious structural differentiation, and different trading strategies are given for different varieties [4]. - In the agricultural product market, different commodities have different supply - demand situations, and trading strategies are affected by factors such as tariffs and policies [5][6]. - In the energy and chemical market, the supply - demand patterns of different products are different, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed according to the market situation [7][8][9]. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - **Gold**: The market shows a correction, and overseas long - term interest rates are temporarily stable. The weak US employment data strengthens the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. Domestic gold ETF funds flow in, and the inventory of COMEX gold remains unchanged. It is recommended to go long on gold [1]. - **Silver**: It follows the sharp rise of gold. After being included in the US critical minerals list, it faces the threat of increased tariffs, and there are short - term long - trading opportunities [1]. Base Metals - **Aluminum**: The price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract decreased. The supply side maintains high - load production, and the demand side has a slight increase in the weekly aluminum product start - up rate. It is recommended to buy at low prices [2]. - **Alumina**: The price of the main contract decreased. Some enterprises have roasting furnace overhauls due to environmental protection control on the supply side, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production. It is recommended to temporarily observe [2]. - **Zinc**: The price of the Shanghai zinc contract decreased. The supply increased significantly, and the processing fee jumped, but the consumption entered the off - season, and the inventory increased. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices [3]. - **Lead**: The price of the Shanghai lead contract decreased slightly. The supply continued to tighten, and the consumption was flat. It is recommended to conduct interval operations and go long briefly at low prices [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract price increased slightly. The supply side had new furnaces opened, and the demand side had a slight increase in the start - up rate of polysilicon. It is recommended to observe [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract price increased. The supply increased, and the demand side had an unexpected increase in energy - storage battery cell orders. It is expected to continue destocking in September, and it is recommended to observe [3]. - **Polysilicon**: The main contract price increased slightly. The supply is expected to continue to grow in September, and the demand of downstream products is stable. It is recommended to observe [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The main contract price increased. The supply - demand of building materials is seasonally weak, and the supply - demand of plates is stable. It is recommended to close short positions and try to go long briefly [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The main contract price increased. The supply - demand is neutral and slightly strong, but the margin is slightly weakening. It is recommended to observe [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The main contract price increased. The supply - demand is neutral and slightly strong, and the futures valuation is high. It is recommended to close short positions [4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The overnight CBOT soybean closed slightly higher. The near - term US soybean production is shrinking, and the long - term South American production is expected to increase. It is recommended to pay attention to the tariff policy [5]. - **Corn**: The corn contract continued to rebound, and the spot price mostly decreased. Affected by factors such as wheat prices and imports, the spot price is expected to be weak. It is recommended to observe [6]. - **Sugar**: The Zhengzhou sugar contract closed down. Internationally, Brazil's high - yield situation is gradually realized, and domestically, the spot price has stabilized. It is recommended to short - sell in the futures market and sell call options [6]. - **Cotton**: The overnight US cotton futures price fluctuated narrowly. Internationally, the Brazilian cotton export volume decreased year - on - year, and domestically, the cotton yarn price was stable. It is recommended to go long at low prices [6]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil price rose. The supply side is in the seasonal production - increasing cycle, and the demand side has improved. It is recommended to trade the long - term tight - supply expectation [6]. - **Eggs**: The egg contract fluctuated narrowly, and the spot price was stable. The demand may increase seasonally, but the supply is sufficient. It is recommended to observe [6]. - **Hogs**: The hog contract continued to decline, and the spot price decreased. The consumption is gradually recovering, and the supply is also increasing. The spot price is expected to stop falling and stabilize in the short term. It is recommended to observe [6]. - **Apples**: The main contract price decreased. The price of early - maturing apples is high at the beginning and then low, and the price of late - maturing apples is expected to support the market. It is recommended to observe [7]. Energy and Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The main contract price fluctuated slightly. The supply side has an increase in domestic production and a decrease in imports, and the demand side is in the peak season of agricultural mulch film. It is recommended to observe in the short term and short - sell in the long term [7]. - **PVC**: The contract price decreased. The supply side has new device production, and the demand side is gradually entering the peak season, but the inventory has accumulated. It is recommended to observe [7]. - **Rubber**: The rubber price continued to fluctuate and closed slightly higher. The raw material price rose, and the inventory continued to decrease. It is recommended to hold long positions [7]. - **Glass**: The contract price remained unchanged. The supply side may have a production resumption, the demand side is in the seasonal destocking cycle, and the inventory has a small increase. It is recommended to observe [8]. - **PP**: The main contract price fluctuated slightly. The supply side has an increase in domestic production and an opening of the export window, and the demand side is in the peak season. It is recommended to short - sell in the long term [8]. - **Crude Oil**: The oil price weakened again. The supply side has an increase in production, and the demand side weakens after the peak season. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices [9]. - **Styrene**: The main contract price fluctuated slightly. The supply side is expected to increase, and the demand side has a high inventory of finished products. It is recommended to short - sell in the long term [9]. - **Soda Ash**: The contract price remained unchanged. The supply side's overhauls are ending, and the demand side has a recovery in downstream glass production. It is recommended to observe and wait for macro - guidance [10]. - **Caustic Soda**: The contract price decreased. The supply side's utilization rate is high, and the demand side's non - aluminum demand recovers seasonally. It is recommended to go long [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For stock index futures, maintain a long - term view of being bullish on the economy. It is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of various varieties on dips, but there are signs of short - term market cooling [1]. - For bond index futures, with the increase in risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies for the medium and long term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory (1) Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - On September 3, most of the four major A - share stock indexes pulled back. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.16% to 3813.56 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.65% to 12472 points, the ChiNext Index rose 0.95% to 2899.37 points, and the STAR 50 Index fell 1.64% to 1306.48 points. Market turnover was 23,957 billion yuan, a decrease of 5,167 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - In terms of industry sectors, the comprehensive, communication, and power equipment sectors led the gains, while national defense and military industry, non - bank finance, and computer sectors led the losses [1]. - From the perspective of market strength, IF>IH>IC>IM. The number of rising, flat, and falling stocks was 822, 44, and 4,559 respectively. The net inflows of institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were - 203, - 276, 32, and 447 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +517, +201, - 222, and - 496 billion yuan respectively [1]. - The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH were 131.48, 129.66, 40.03, and 14.19 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were - 16.89%, - 17.48%, - 8.31%, and - 4.44% respectively, with three - year historical quantiles of 10%, 3%, 11%, and 21% respectively [1]. (2) Bond Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - On September 3, the yields of bond index futures declined. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond fell 1.99bps to 1.351, the five - year bond fell 3.35bps to 1.573, the ten - year bond fell 2.88bps to 1.71, and the thirty - year bond fell 4.11bps to 2.085 [1]. - The CTD bonds, yield changes, net basis, and IRR of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year bond index futures are provided. For example, the CTD bond of the 2 - year bond index futures is 250012.IB, with a yield change of - 1.25bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.019, and an IRR of 1.51% [1]. - In terms of the money market, the central bank's currency injection was 2,291 billion yuan, currency withdrawal was 3,799 billion yuan, and the net withdrawal was 1,508 billion yuan [1]. (3) Economic Data High - frequency data shows that the recent social activity sentiment is weak [11].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information provided regarding the industry investment ratings in the reports [1][2][3] Group 2: Core Views - The reports cover various commodity futures markets including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. Each market has its own unique market performance, fundamentals, and trading strategies based on factors such as supply - demand dynamics, policy changes, and macro - economic conditions [1][2][3] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - **Gold**: Market remains strong with London gold price approaching $3600. Fed officials signal potential rate cuts, US job vacancies are lower than expected. Gold ETFs see capital inflows. Suggested to go long on gold due to increased likelihood of Fed rate cuts and growing避险需求 [1] - **Silver**: Follows gold's rally. With a threat of increased tariffs as it enters the US critical minerals list, there are short - term long opportunities [1] Base Metals - **Aluminum**: Electrolytic aluminum supply is stable, demand downstream is improving, but inventory accumulation suppresses prices. Expected to continue in a volatile pattern, recommended to go long on dips [2] - **Alumina**: Spot prices are declining, but the decline may slow as some short - selling institutions take profits. Suggested to wait and see [2] - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply has increased with new furnaces opened, and there is a slight reduction in inventory. Policy expectations and news about storage plans and production limits cause market fluctuations. The market is expected to oscillate weakly in the 8200 - 9100 range, advised to wait and see [2][3] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Short - term sentiment has cooled, and the intraday long - short battle is intense. The market is under pressure. However, potential supply impacts from mine closures may trigger upward movement later. Suggested to wait and see [3] - **Polysilicon**: The market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. Policy expectations lead to intense market games. Without new definite negative news, the market is expected to oscillate at a high level. Advised to wait and see [3] Black Industries - **Rebar**: Steel supply - demand is seasonally weak with obvious structural differentiation. The rebar futures discount is slightly high. Recommended to re - enter short positions on the rebar 2601 contract in the 3060 - 3140 range [4] - **Iron Ore**: Supply and demand are moderately strong but slightly weakening at the margin. The market is expected to accumulate inventory slower than the seasonal pattern. Valuation is moderately high. Advised to wait and see [4] - **Coking Coal**: Supply and demand are generally loose but improving. The futures premium is high. Recommended to exit short positions on the coking coal 2601 contract [5] Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: Near - term US soybean production is contracting, while South American production is expected to increase in the long - term. The short - term US soybean market is in an oscillating range, and the domestic market may oscillate after removing risk premiums. The medium - term trend depends on tariff policies [5] - **Corn**: Wheat prices and increased import grain auctions suppress corn prices. New - crop corn costs are lower, and the spot price is expected to be weak. The futures market is expected to oscillate weakly. Advised to wait and see [5] - **Sugar**: Brazilian production is the main factor affecting the international sugar market. The domestic market may oscillate weakly. Recommended to go short in the futures market and sell call options [5] - **Cotton**: International cotton has some production - related issues, and the domestic market is oscillating. Recommended to go long at low prices in the 13800 - 14500 yuan/ton range [5] - **Palm Oil**: The supply is in a seasonal increase cycle, and demand is improving. The market is expected to be in a phased consolidation and bullish in the medium - term. Attention should be paid to production in the producing areas and bio - diesel policies [6] - **Eggs**: Demand is increasing seasonally due to school openings and festivals, but supply is also sufficient. The futures market is expected to oscillate. Advised to wait and see [6] - **Pork**: Consumption is recovering, but supply is also increasing. The pig price may stop falling and stabilize in the short - term. The futures market is advised to wait and see [6] - **Apples**: The price of early - maturing apples is falling, but farmers' expectations for late - maturing apples support the market. The market is expected to oscillate. Advised to wait and see [6] Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: In the short - term, the market is expected to oscillate. In the long - term, as new devices are put into operation, the supply - demand pattern will become looser. Recommended to short far - month contracts or conduct month - spread reverse arbitrage at high prices [7] - **PVC**: Supply is increasing, demand is weak, but the downside is limited. Advised to wait and see [8] - **Rubber**: Inventory is decreasing, raw material prices are supportive, and the spot market is strong. Recommended to hold long positions with high - selling and low - buying strategies and be cautious about chasing high prices [8] - **Glass**: Supply - demand is weak, but inventory is decreasing. Valuation is low. Advised to wait and see [8] - **PP**: In the short - term, the market is expected to oscillate weakly. In the long - term, as new devices are put into operation, the supply - demand pattern will become looser. Recommended to short far - month contracts or conduct month - spread reverse arbitrage at high prices [8] - **Crude Oil**: Supply is increasing, demand is weakening, and there is a potential surplus in Q4. Recommended to go short at high prices [8][9] - **Styrene**: Supply is expected to increase, and demand is still weak. The market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term. In the long - term, as supply increases, the supply - demand pattern will become looser. Recommended to short far - month contracts or short styrene profit at high prices [9] - **Soda Ash**: Supply is large, prices are falling. Advised to wait for macro - level guidance [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For stock index futures, maintain a long - term bullish view on the economy, recommend buying long - term contracts of various varieties on dips, but note short - term market cooling signs [2] - For treasury bond futures, with the upward shift in risk appetite and economic recovery expectations, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies for the medium and long term [2] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - On September 2nd, the four major A - share stock indexes declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.45% to 3858.13 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 2.14% to 12553.84 points, the ChiNext Index decreased 2.85% to 2872.22 points, and the STAR 50 Index declined 2.13% to 1328.28 points. Market turnover was 29,124 billion yuan, an increase of 1,348 billion yuan from the previous day [2] - In terms of industry sectors, banks (+1.95%), public utilities (+0.99%), and household appliances (+0.91%) led the gains, while communication (-5.73%), computer (-4.06%), and electronics (-3.85%) led the losses [2] - In terms of market strength, IH > IF > IC > IM. The number of rising, flat, and falling stocks was 1,257, 113, and 4,055 respectively. Institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets had net inflows of - 720, - 477, 254, and 943 billion yuan respectively, with changes of - 588, - 244, +245, and +587 billion yuan [2] - For the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH, the basis was 111.68, 110.49, 14.85, and 1.68 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were - 13.63%, - 14.17%, - 2.95%, and - 0.5% respectively. The three - year historical quantiles were 18%, 8%, 29%, and 39% respectively [2] 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - On September 2nd, the yields of treasury bond futures rose. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond was 1.375, up 1.19 bps from the previous day; the five - year bond was 1.61, up 0.96 bps; the ten - year bond was 1.741, up 0.84 bps; and the thirty - year bond was 2.129, up 3.43 bps [2] - For the current active 2512 contract, the CTD bond of the two - year treasury bond futures was 250012.IB, with a yield change of +0 bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.007, and an IRR of 1.46%; the CTD bond of the five - year treasury bond futures was 250003.IB, with a yield change of - 0.5 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.069, and an IRR of 1.2%; the CTD bond of the ten - year treasury bond futures was 220017.IB, with a yield change of - 0.5 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.082, and an IRR of 1.15%; the CTD bond of the thirty - year treasury bond futures was 210014.IB, with a yield change of +1 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.185, and an IRR of 0.95% [2] - In terms of the money market, the central bank injected 2,557 billion yuan and withdrew 4,058 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1,501 billion yuan [2] 3.3 Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the recent social activity sentiment is weak [10] - Based on the comparison of medium - term data of each module with the same period in the past five years, positive scores indicate an improvement in sentiment, negative scores indicate a weakening in sentiment, and zero scores indicate little change in sentiment [13]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market performance, fundamentals, and trading strategies of various commodity futures, including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. Different trading strategies are recommended for each commodity based on their specific market conditions [2][3][4]. Summary by Category Precious Metals - **Gold**: The market is strong with London gold price above $3500. The US 8 - month ISM manufacturing index shows contraction, and domestic gold ETF has capital inflow. It is recommended to go long on gold due to the increased probability of Fed rate - cut and the unchanged de - dollarization logic [2]. - **Silver**: It follows gold's rise. As it enters the US critical minerals list and faces tariff threats, there are short - term long - trading opportunities [2]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The price oscillates strongly. With the weakening of the US manufacturing PMI and the opening of the import window, it is recommended to buy on dips [3]. - **Aluminum**: The price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract slightly declined. Supply is stable, demand is recovering, but inventory build - up suppresses the market. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to the inventory inflection point [3]. - **Alumina**: The price of the main contract rose slightly. Supply is affected by environmental protection, and demand is high. The fundamentals are loose, and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Zinc**: The price of the main contract rose. Supply has increased significantly, consumption is in the off - season, and inventory has increased. It is recommended to short on rallies [4]. - **Lead**: The price of the main contract slightly declined. Supply is tightening, consumption is flat, and inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to trade within a range and go long on dips [4]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of the main contract declined. Supply has increased, demand in some industries is improving, and inventory is decreasing slightly. It is recommended to wait and see as the market may oscillate weakly [4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of the main contract fell. Supply growth is weakening, demand is increasing, and inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to supply - side changes [4]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The price of the main contract declined. The supply - demand pattern is supply - strong and demand - weak. It is recommended to wait and see as the market may oscillate at a high level [4]. - **Tin**: The price oscillates. The supply of tin ore is tight, but there are expectations of future increases. It may follow the macro - trend and oscillate strongly in the short term [5]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The main contract oscillated strongly. Inventory has increased, and supply - demand is seasonally weak with obvious structural differentiation. It is recommended to close short positions on the 2601 contract [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The main contract oscillated strongly. Supply and demand are neutral - strong with a slight weakening at the margin. It is recommended to close short positions on the 2601 contract [6]. - **Coking Coal**: The main contract oscillated strongly. Supply - demand is relatively loose but improving. It is recommended to close short positions on the 2601 contract [6]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The overnight CBOT soybean price fell. Supply is expected to change, and demand has a game. Short - term US soybeans are strong, and the domestic market may oscillate. The medium - term trend depends on tariff policies [8]. - **Corn**: The 2511 contract continued to rebound. Wheat substitution, increased supply, and lower costs suppress the price. It is recommended to wait and see as the futures may oscillate weakly [8]. - **Sugar**: The 01 contract price fell. International and domestic factors affect the market. It is recommended to short on the futures market and sell call options [8]. - **Cotton**: The overnight US cotton price oscillated and fell. International and domestic market conditions are different. It is recommended to go long on dips within the 13800 - 14500 yuan/ton range [8]. - **Palm Oil**: The price rose. Supply is in the seasonal growth period, and demand is increasing. It is recommended to be bullish on the medium - term and pay attention to production and policies [8]. - **Eggs**: The 2510 contract performed weakly. Supply is sufficient, and demand may increase seasonally. It is recommended to wait and see as the futures may oscillate [8]. - **Pigs**: The 2511 contract oscillated narrowly. Supply and demand are both increasing, and the state has started a purchase and storage plan. It is recommended to wait and see as the spot price may stop falling and stabilize [9]. - **Apples**: The main contract price rose slightly. The price of early - maturing apples is falling, but there are expectations for late - maturing varieties. It is recommended to wait and see as the market oscillates [9]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The main contract price fell slightly. Supply is increasing, demand is improving, and inventory is decreasing slightly. Short - term oscillation is expected, and it is recommended to short on far - month contracts or conduct reverse spreads in the long - term [10]. - **Rubber**: The price of the main contract rose slightly. Supply prices are rising, inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to hold long positions [10]. - **PP**: The main contract price fell slightly. Supply is increasing, demand is improving, and inventory is accumulating slightly. Short - term weak oscillation is expected, and it is recommended to short on far - month contracts or conduct reverse spreads in the long - term [11]. - **Crude Oil**: The price rose, but the Brent spread weakened. Supply is increasing, demand is weakening, and there is a large expected surplus in Q4. It is recommended to short on rallies [11]. - **Styrene**: The main contract price fell slightly. Supply is expected to increase, demand is improving, and inventory is normal. Short - term weak oscillation is expected, and it is recommended to short on far - month contracts or short on styrene profit when the price rebounds [11].

Report Overview - The report is a financial futures morning report released by China Merchants Futures Co., Ltd. on September 2, 2025, covering the performance of stock index and treasury bond futures on September 1, 2025, as well as market trading strategies and economic data analysis [1][2] Market Performance Stock Index Futures and Spot Market - On September 1, the four major A - share stock indexes oscillated strongly. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.46% to 3875.53 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.05% to 12828.95 points, the ChiNext Index rose 2.29% to 2956.37 points, and the STAR 50 Index rose 1.18% to 1357.15 points. Market turnover was 2777.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 52.6 billion yuan from the previous day [2] - In terms of industry sectors, communication (+5.22%), comprehensive (+4.27%), and non - ferrous metals (+3.46%) led the gains; non - bank finance (-1.28%), banks (-1.03%), and household appliances (-0.54%) led the losses [2] - From the perspective of market strength, IC > IM > IF > IH. The number of rising, flat, and falling stocks was 3206, 133, and 2085 respectively. The net inflows of institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were -13.1 billion, -23.3 billion, 800 million, and 35.6 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +11.6 billion, +4.8 billion, -10.8 billion, and -5.5 billion yuan respectively [2] - The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH were 186.95, 147.09, 20.71, and 3.2 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were -21.49%, -17.83%, -3.95%, and -0.93% respectively, with three - year historical quantiles of 3%, 2%, 21%, and 35% respectively [2] Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Market - On September 1, the yields of treasury bond futures declined across the board. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond was 1.359, a decrease of 0.53 bps from the previous day; the five - year bond was 1.604, a decrease of 1.8 bps; the ten - year bond was 1.734, a decrease of 2.5 bps; and the thirty - year bond was 2.097, a decrease of 1.6 bps [3] - For the current active contract 2512, the CTD bond of the two - year treasury bond futures was 250012.IB, with a yield change of -0.5 bps, a corresponding net basis of -0.028, and an IRR of 1.54%; the five - year was 250003.IB, with a yield change of -1 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.026, and an IRR of 1.36%; the ten - year was 220017.IB, with a yield change of -1.25 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.006, and an IRR of 1.41%; the thirty - year was 210014.IB, with a yield change of -1 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.028, and an IRR of 1.39% [3] Capital Situation - In terms of open - market operations, the central bank injected 182.7 billion yuan and withdrew 288.4 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 105.7 billion yuan [4] Trading Strategies - For the medium - and long - term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy. Currently, using stock indexes as a long - position substitute has certain excess returns. It is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of various varieties on dips. In the short term, there are signs of market cooling [3] - With the upward risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to conduct hedging on T and TL contracts at high levels for the medium - and long - term [4] Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the recent social activity sentiment is weak [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - The overall market presents a complex situation with different trends in various commodity sectors. Some sectors like precious metals and certain base metals show potential for upward movement, while others such as energy - related commodities and some agricultural products face supply - demand imbalances and price uncertainties [1][2][3]. - The geopolitical situation, economic data (such as PMI, unemployment rate), and policy factors (like tariffs, production cuts) significantly impact the commodity markets [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - **Gold**: Market is in high - level oscillation, with silver breaking through the $40 mark. Fundamental factors include geopolitical tensions in Europe and positive economic data in the eurozone. Suggested strategy is to go long on gold due to the unchanged de - dollarization logic and increased probability of Fed rate cuts, and there are short - term long opportunities for silver [1]. - **Silver**: Followed gold's rally. With the threat of increased tariffs as it enters the US critical minerals list, there are short - term long opportunities [1]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Price oscillated strongly. With a weakening dollar and tight copper ore supply, the suggested strategy is to buy on dips due to expected liquidity easing and supply - demand tightening [2]. - **Aluminum**: The price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract decreased slightly. Supply is stable with increasing production capacity, and demand is improving. However, inventory accumulation suppresses the market. It is expected to continue oscillating, and the suggested strategy is to buy on dips [2]. - **Alumina**: The price of the main contract decreased. Supply is in a loose pattern with increasing warehouse receipts, and overseas prices are falling. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and the suggested strategy is to wait and see [2]. - **Zinc**: The price of the main contract increased slightly. Supply has increased significantly, while demand is in a deepening off - season. The suggested strategy is to sell on rallies [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract price increased. Supply has increased, and demand shows mixed trends. The market is expected to oscillate weakly in the range of 7600 - 9100, and the suggested strategy is to wait and see [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract price decreased. Supply is facing some uncertainties, and demand is showing growth in some areas. It is expected to oscillate and decline in the short term, and the suggested strategy is to wait and see [3]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The main contract price increased. The market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. Policy news is causing market fluctuations, and the suggested strategy is to wait and see, and consider light - position long or buying out - of - the - money call options on pullbacks [3]. - **Tin**: The price oscillated. Supply is currently tight but with ongoing复产 in Wa State. In a macro - positive environment, it is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The main contract price oscillated weakly. The steel market has a seasonal weak supply - demand situation with obvious structural differentiation. The suggested strategy is to short the 2601 contract in the short term [5]. - **Iron Ore**: The main contract price oscillated weakly. Supply and demand are moderately strong but slightly weakening at the margin. The suggested strategy is to short the 2601 contract in the short term [5]. - **Coking Coal**: The main contract price oscillated weakly. Supply is relatively loose but improving. The suggested strategy is to short the 2601 contract [5]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans were closed overnight. Near - term US soybean production is shrinking, while South American production is expected to increase in the long - term. Short - term US soybeans are strong, and the domestic market may oscillate after risk premium reduction. Mid - term trends depend on tariff policies [6]. - **Corn**: The 2511 contract oscillated narrowly. Wheat substitution, increased supply from imports and new harvests, and lower production costs are putting downward pressure on prices. The futures are expected to oscillate weakly, and the suggested strategy is to wait and see [7]. - **Sugar**: The 01 contract increased slightly. Brazil's high production is pressuring the international market, and domestic prices are showing signs of stabilization. The suggested strategy is to go short in the futures market and sell call options [7]. - **Cotton**: The international cotton market was closed overnight, and the domestic market rebounded. The suggested strategy is to buy on dips in the range of 13800 - 14500 [7]. - **Palm Oil**: The market was closed. Supply is in a seasonal growth cycle, and demand is improving. It is in a situation of increasing supply and demand, with near - term inventory accumulation and long - term tightness expected. The short - term is for consolidation, and the medium - term is still bullish [7]. - **Eggs**: The 2510 contract ran weakly. Supply is sufficient, and demand may increase seasonally. The futures are expected to oscillate after continuous decline, and the suggested strategy is to wait and see [7]. - **Pigs**: The 2511 contract ran weakly. Consumption is recovering, but supply is also increasing. The pig price is expected to stop falling and stabilize in the short term, and the suggested strategy for futures is to wait and see [7]. - **Apples**: The main contract price decreased slightly. The price of early - maturing apples is falling, but farmers' expectations for late - maturing apples support the market. The market is expected to oscillate, and the suggested strategy is to wait and see [8]. Energy and Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The main contract price decreased slightly. Supply is increasing domestically but may decrease in imports. Demand is improving in the agricultural film sector. Short - term oscillation is expected, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short far - month contracts or do reverse spreads [8]. - **PVC**: The 01 contract price decreased slightly. It is in bottom - level oscillation, with supply increasing and demand weak. The suggested strategy is to wait and see [8]. - **Glass**: The FG01 contract price decreased. Supply is expected to increase slightly, and inventory is decreasing. The market is in a de - stocking cycle, and the suggested strategy is to wait and see [8]. - **PP**: The main contract price decreased slightly. Supply is increasing, and demand is entering the peak season. Short - term oscillation is expected, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short far - month contracts or do reverse spreads [9]. - **Crude Oil**: The price increased slightly. Supply is increasing, and demand is weakening after the peak season. The suggested strategy is to sell on rallies [9]. - **Styrene**: The main contract price decreased slightly. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is still facing challenges. Short - term oscillation is expected, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short far - month contracts or short styrene profit [9]. - **Soda Ash**: The sa01 contract price decreased. Supply is recovering with high inventory. The suggested strategy is to wait for macro guidance [9]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price increased and then stabilized. Supply and demand are healthy, and the price is expected to rise. The suggested strategy is to go long on caustic soda [10].