2025年04月22日 星期二 商品期货早班车 招商期货 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 期货研究 万吨，较 4 月 17 日去库 0.83 万吨 基本面：供应端，废电瓶价格居高不下，挤压再生铅冶炼利润，冶炼企业生产积极性下降，消费端，铅蓄电 池市场淡季态势加剧，部分下游有意减产或放假，铅锭供需预期呈双降态势。近日铅价探低后回升，部分下 游企业陆续转移社会仓库的铅库存（为前期逢低采购的货源），显性库存减量或提振铅价运行重心略有上移。 交易策略：关税问题的不确定性尚存，铅供需双降，短期预计维持低位盘整。 风险提示：再生废料供应大幅恢复。 黑色产业 | | 市场表现：螺纹主力合约 2510 合约冲高回落收于 3105 元/吨，较前一交易日收盘价涨 18 元/吨 | | --- | --- | | | 基本面：钢银口径建材库存环比下降 6.6%至 519 万吨，上周环比下降 5.1%。杭州周末螺纹出库 7.1 万吨， | | | 上周出库 9.1 万吨。库存 91.3 万吨，上周 99.6 万吨，去年同期 111.8 万吨。主力合约换月后螺纹热卷贴水环 | | 螺 | 比基本持平，10 合约双双升水或基本平水现货，期货估值 ...

金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 金融研究 2025年4月21日 星期一 市场表现：4 月 18 日，A 股四大股指涨跌不一，其中上证指数下跌 0.11%，报收 3276.73 点；深成 指上涨 0.23%，报收 9781.65 点；创业板指上涨 0.27%，报收 1913.97 点；科创 50 指数下跌 0.81%， 报收 1008.6 点。市场成交 9,492 亿元，较前日减少 812 亿元。行业板块方面，通信(+1.59%)，房地 产(+1.53%)，银行(+0.78%)涨幅居前；美容护理(-2.46%)，社会服务(-2.45%)，纺织服饰(-1.54%)跌 幅居前。从市场强弱看，IC>IF>IH>IM，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 2,392/279/2,735。沪深两市，机构、 主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-21、-119、-25、165 亿元，分别变动-64、-45、+77、+32 亿元。 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 93.49、79.52、35.52 与 13.84 点，基差年化收益率分 别为-22.27%、-19.86%、-13.08%与-7.23%，三年期历史 ...

期货研究报告 | 商品研究 主力合约完成换月，注意防范价格高波动 ——招期新能源ESG碳酸锂周报 （2025年4月14日-2025年4月20日） 2025年04月20日 • 研究员-马芸 • mayun@cmschina.com.cn • 联系电话：18682466799 • 资格证号： Z0018708 周度盘面价格：窄幅震荡 3 数据来源：文华财经，招商期货 周度产业价格 01 周度观察 2 | | 指 标 | 单 位 | 2025-04-18 | 2025-04-11 | 涨跌幅 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 锂辉石 | 锂辉石精矿（CIF中国）指数 | 美元/吨 | 808 | 810 | -0 . | 25% | | | 澳大利亚锂辉石精矿（CIF中国）现货 | 美元/吨 | 810 | 820 | -1 . | 22% | | | 巴西锂辉石精矿（CIF中国）现货 | 美元/吨 | 813 | 820 | -0 . | 91% | | | 津巴布韦锂辉石精矿 6%（CIF中国）现货 | 美元/吨 | 773 | 780 | -0 ...

（2025年4月14日-2025年4月19日） 2025年4月13日 期货研究报告 | 商品研究 欧线需求温和，近洋线运价上涨预期增强 ——集装箱和干散货航运市场周报 • 研究员-吕杰 • lvjie@cmschina.com.cn • 联系电话：0755-8278176 • 执业资格号：F3021174 Z0012822 航运市场运价监测 航运市场基本面分析 航运市场周度观点概述 一 三 目录 contents 二 一 航运市场运价监测 航运市场运价监测-现货市场 | | | | | 指 标 | | 日 期 | 重 权 | 价 格 | 相比上周 | 相比上月 | 年初至今 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | SCFIS | 2025-04-14 | 100 00% . | 1402 35 . | -1 40% . | -4 83% . | -60 09% . | | | | SCFI | 2025-04-18 | 100 00% . | 1370 6 . | -1 73% . | 1 01% . | -44 29% ...

2025年04月21日 星期一 商品期货早班车 期货研究 | | 易摩擦下，欧美市场消费预期分化。库存：社库持续累库但累库速度放缓，新仓单生成速度较缓，仓单整体 | | --- | --- | | | 呈现去库状态，周五广期所仓单数量为 29562（周+2.21%），SMM 口径社会库存累库至 131605 吨（+585）。 | | | 交易策略：暂无趋势下行的新增利空，盘面存在修复基差需求，预计价格震荡运行。由于主力合约换月，盘 | | | 面 05-07 呈现 Back 结构，注意资金主导的合约高波动，建议观望。 | | | 风险提示：国际贸易摩擦、大厂停产、消费不及预期 | | | 市场表现：周五盘面继续下跌，收于 37615 元，较前一日下跌 1825 元。仓单仍维持在 30 吨。光伏产业链产 | | | 品价格环比下滑 1.6-4%。短期看，关税政策引发的利空冲击导致"无差别抛售"，叠加光伏抢装潮退坡，盘 | | 多 | 面底部不明确。中期看，三季度需求淡季且抢装潮已将下半年部分需求前置，叠加新能源市场化新政给下半 | | 晶 硅 | 年光伏需求带来不确定性。 | | | 操作建议：整体市场偏悲观， ...

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - On April 17, most of the four major A-share stock indices rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.13% to 3280.34 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.16% to 9759.05 points, the ChiNext Index up 0.09% to 1908.78 points, and the STAR 50 Index up 0.23% to 1016.81 points. Market turnover was 1.0304 trillion yuan, a decrease of 110.4 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - In terms of industry sectors, real estate (+2.32%), comprehensive (+1.95%), and building materials (+1.24%) led the gains, while automobiles (-0.8%), non-ferrous metals (-0.41%), and communications (-0.3%) led the losses [2]. - From the perspective of market strength, IM > IH > IC > IF. The number of rising, flat, and falling stocks was 3,125, 246, and 2,035 respectively. In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net inflows of 4.3 billion, -7.4 billion, -10.2 billion, and 13.2 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +18.3 billion, +13.4 billion, -10.7 billion, and -20.9 billion yuan respectively [2]. - On April 17, Treasury bond futures pulled back. The 2 - year Treasury bond futures fell 0.08% to 102.49 points, the 5 - year Treasury bond futures fell 0.14% to 106.26 points, the 10 - year Treasury bond futures fell 0.15% to 108.99 points, and the 30 - year Treasury bond futures fell 0.49% to 119.44 points [3]. 2. Index Futures - The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH was 89.76, 73.41, 34.42, and 15.1 points respectively, with annualized basis yields of -20.23%, -17.38%, -12.01%, and -7.47% respectively, and three - year historical quantiles of 2%, 2%, 1%, and 13% respectively. As the delivery date approaches, the index basis fluctuates greatly. Currently, the futures are at a deep discount, and there may be spot - futures arbitrage opportunities [3]. - After the implementation of US reciprocal tariffs, the volatility of stock indices has increased significantly. In the short term, the index may be oversold. Pay attention to signs of tariff easing and the structural opportunities in the stock market. If the RMB holds the key level, the index may stabilize. Currently, there are gaps above and below the index, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The valuation of IF is low, and it is recommended to buy on dips [3]. 3. Treasury Bond Futures - The current active contract is the 2506 contract. The CTD bonds of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures are 240024.IB, 220021.IB, 220003.IB, and 200012.IB respectively. The yield changes are +3.5bps, +0.56bps, +1.25bps, and +3.25bps respectively, corresponding to net bases of -0.12, -0.101, -0.094, and -0.217 respectively, and IRRs of 2.4%, 2.27%, 2.25%, and 2.61% respectively. Currently, the CTD bonds of each maturity have high IRRs and low bases, and there may be spot - futures arbitrage opportunities [4]. - In terms of the money market, the central bank injected 24.55 billion yuan and withdrew 6.59 billion yuan, with a net injection of 17.96 billion yuan. Recently, the tightness of short - term funds has eased. The macro - side changes are frequent, and the implementation of the US reciprocal tariff executive order has greatly increased global trade uncertainty. In the short term, the safe - haven property of Treasury bonds is more prominent, but the price has reached a high level and is expected to fluctuate. In the long run, the sequence of fiscal and monetary policies will determine the direction of long - term prices. If fiscal policies are introduced first and the domestic economy shows a further positive trend, the prices of long - term Treasury bonds are expected to gradually cool down and the yield curve will become steeper [4]. 4. Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the recent economic fundamentals have a differentiated prosperity. The prosperity of the import - export sector continues to improve, while social activities are weaker than the same period [6]. 5. Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - The report provides detailed performance data of index futures and spot markets, including codes, names, price changes, trading volumes, open interests, and other information of various contracts [10]. 6. Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - The report provides detailed performance data of Treasury bond futures and spot markets, including prices, price changes, trading volumes, open interests, CTD bonds, yield changes, net bases, quantiles, and IRRs of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures [12]. - The report also shows the term structure of Treasury bond spot prices and the changes in short - term capital interest rates [14][15]

2025年04月18日 星期五 商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 | 招商评论 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 贵 | | | | 市场表现：周四贵金属市场回调；消息面，负责与美国就关税进行谈判的日本经济再生大臣赤泽亮从 | | | 16 | 日起 | | 金 | | 访美，展开 4 月 2 日以来与美国的首轮贸易谈判；欧盟考虑在贸易谈判失败的情况下对美国实施出口限制； | | | | | | | | 属 | | 欧洲央行第七次降息，且会后强调，受贸易紧张局势加剧影响，欧元区经济增长前景已经恶化。经济数据方 | | | | | | | | | | 面，费城联储制造业商业前景指数从上月的 12.5 暴跌至-26.4，创两年新低，远低于预期的正 2.2。另外，新 | | | | | | | | | | 订单指数大幅下滑至-34.2。库存数据方面，印度 2 月白银进口减至 250 吨左右；上期所白银库存昨日减少 | | | | | | 6 | | | 吨至 | 956 吨，金交所白银库存上周库存 ...

期货研究报告 | 商品研究 美通胀无近虑而有远忧， 黄金反弹创新高白银跟随 美联储年内可能3次降息 • 招商期货 徐世伟 • xushiwei@cmschina.com.cn • 执业资格：F03076217 • 投资咨询：Z0001836 黄金估值与比较（黄金依旧高估，与真实利率负相关增强） ——贵金属周度报告 2025年04月07日-2025年04月11日 2025年04月13日 -100% -50% 0% 50% 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 金油比 金油比 金油相关性 -150% -100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 Oct/09 Oct/10 Oct/11 Oct/12 Oct/13 Oct/14 Oct/15 Oct/16 Oct/17 Oct/18 Oct/19 Oct/20 Oct/21 Oct/22 Oct/23 Oct/24 黄金与真实利率相关性 黄金价格 黄金与真实利率相关性 -25% 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 3 4 5 铜金比 铜金比 铜金相关性 -150% - ...

金融研究 2025年4月17日 星期四 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 121.55、102.06、49.02 与 28.7 点，基差年化收益率分 别为-26.04%、-22.96%、-16.24%与-13.49%，三年期历史分位数分别为 1%、1%、1%及 5%。目 前现货板块波动较大，期货端贴水较深，或有期现套利机会。 交易策略：美国对等关税落地后，股指波动显著增大。短期指数存在超跌的可能，关注关税有无缓和 迹象，以及股市的结构性机会。人民币守住关键关口，指数或能同步企稳。目前指数上下方均有缺口， 短期偏震荡运行，IF 的估值较低，建议逢低布局。 风险提示：美国双边政策不确定性、财政扩张进度不及预期。 市场表现：4 月 16 日，国债期货全线上行，其中 2 年期国债期货上涨 0.02%，报收 102.56 点，5 年期国债期货上涨 0.1%，报收 106.39 点，10 年期国债期货上涨 0.15%，报收 109.14 点，30 年期 国债期货上涨 0.13%，报收 120.04 点。 现券：目前活跃合约为 2506 合约，2 年期国债期货 CTD 券为 240024.IB，收 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The precious metals market continued to strengthen on Wednesday. Gold is recommended to hold long positions, and silver short positions should be appropriately reduced or the gold - silver ratio should be long. The base metals market shows different trends, with copper expected to be volatile and strong, aluminum to be volatile in the short - term and potentially stabilize, and alumina to maintain a volatile run. [2] - In the agricultural products market, domestic soybean meal is expected to be volatile and bullish, corn futures prices are expected to be volatile and strong, palm oil is temporarily weak, domestic sugar is easy to rise in the short - term but has limited upside in the long - term, cotton can stop profit on short positions or wait and see, and eggs and logs have different price trends and trading strategies. [3][4] - In the energy and chemical market, LLDPE, PVC, PTA, rubber, glass, PP, MEG, styrene, soda ash, and caustic soda all have their own supply - demand situations and trading strategies, mainly including short - term volatility, long - term supply - demand changes, and attention to factors such as tariffs and device maintenance. [5][6][7] - In the shipping market, the overall outlook for shipping rates is pessimistic under the trade war. The Southeast Asian routes will have a supply - demand mismatch in the short - term, and the European routes will show a pessimistic outlook. [8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: The precious metals market continued to strengthen on Wednesday. [2] - **News**: Powell reiterated the Fed's wait - and - see approach, warning of the dilemma between inflation and the economy and denying a bailout. There were disputes over tariff policies, and economic data such as China's Q1 GDP growth of 5.4%, Canada maintaining its interest rate at 2.75%, and a 1.4% increase in US March retail sales were released. [2] - **Inventory Data**: Indian silver imports in February decreased to about 250 tons, SHFE silver inventory increased by 9 tons to 961 tons, and SGE silver inventory decreased by 23 tons to 1745 tons last week. London's inventory in March decreased by 335 tons to 22124 tons. [2] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold long positions in gold and appropriately reduce short positions in silver or long the gold - silver ratio. [2] Base Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper prices fluctuated yesterday. [2] - **Fundamentals**: Affected by the Sino - US trade war, copper prices weakened during the day session. At night, the decline in US stocks and the US dollar supported metal prices, and the strengthening of precious metals also supported copper prices. The spot premium of flat - copper in East and South China was 80 yuan and 60 yuan respectively. [2] - **Trading Strategy**: Treat it with a volatile and strong mindset. [2] Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum 2506 contract decreased by 0.64% compared with the previous trading day, closing at 19545 yuan/ton. [2] - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production with a slight increase in operating capacity. On the demand side, the operating rate of aluminum products decreased slightly. [2] - **Trading Strategy**: The uncertainty of US tariff policies is the main driver of aluminum price fluctuations. Aluminum prices may continue to fluctuate and adjust in the short - term but may stabilize if tariff policies ease. It is recommended to wait and see. [2] Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the alumina 2505 contract increased by 1.04% compared with the previous trading day, closing at 2815 yuan/ton. [2] - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, alumina maintenance, production cuts, and active production reduction were concentrated, with a significant decline in operating capacity. On the demand side, electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production with a slight increase in operating capacity. [2] - **Trading Strategy**: The uncertainty of ore supply has increased, and the spot price has stopped falling. Alumina prices are expected to maintain a volatile run in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see. [2] Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: CBOT soybeans rose slightly overnight. [3] - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, South America has a bumper harvest in the near - term, and the US may reduce soybean planting area in the long - term. On the demand side, Brazil dominates in the short - term, and US soybean demand is seasonally weak. [3] - **Trading Strategy**: US soybeans are expected to be volatile, and domestic soybean meal is expected to be volatile and bullish, showing a backwardation pattern. Pay attention to trade policies and US soybean planting area changes in the medium - term. [3] Corn - **Market Performance**: The corn 2505 contract fluctuated narrowly, and the spot price rose slightly. [3] - **Fundamentals**: The grain sales progress is over 90%, much faster than in previous years. The expected decrease in substitute imports and the increase in demand have improved the supply - demand situation. The reduction in remaining grain and the addition of tariffs are beneficial to domestic corn consumption. [3] - **Trading Strategy**: With the reduction of remaining grain, the futures price is expected to be volatile and strong. [3] Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil prices fell in the short - term, trading on the expectation of increased production. [3] - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, there is seasonal production increase in the producing areas, with a 17% month - on - month increase in March production. On the demand side, exports from the producing areas improved month - on - month, with a 17% increase in Malaysian palm oil exports from April 1 - 15. [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Palm oil is temporarily weak, and there are differences among varieties. Pay attention to production in the producing areas and biodiesel policies in the medium - term. [3] Sugar - **Market Performance**: The Zhengzhou sugar 09 contract closed at 5913 yuan/ton, up 0.65%. [3] - **Fundamentals**: International raw sugar prices have broken through the support level, while domestic sugar is easy to rise. The import of processed sugar is expected to increase after the third quarter. There are differences in the market's expectations for the new domestic sugar production. [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Short the 09 contract unilaterally. [3] Cotton - **Market Performance**: US cotton prices rose overnight, and Zhengzhou cotton prices continued to fluctuate. [3] - **Fundamentals**: The US cotton sowing progress is slow, and domestic downstream procurement has slowed down. The cotton textile PMI in March increased significantly, but orders are expected to decline. [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Stop profit on short positions or wait and see. [3] Logs - **Market Performance**: The log 07 contract closed at 825.5 yuan/cubic meter, down 0.36%. [3] - **Fundamentals**: The ban on US log imports has been reflected in the market. The current inventory out - flow has increased, but the arrival volume is still high. Housing construction demand has increased slightly, supporting the price bottom. [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see. [3] Eggs - **Market Performance**: The egg 2505 contract rose, and the spot price was stable. [4] - **Fundamentals**: The new production capacity is limited in the later period, and the supply will gradually decline as old chickens are continuously culled. With the approaching of the May Day holiday, demand will improve, and inventory is at a low level. [4] - **Trading Strategy**: The futures price is expected to be volatile and strong. [4] Pigs - **Market Performance**: The pig 2505 contract fluctuated narrowly, and the spot price fell. [4] - **Fundamentals**: The slaughter volume in April is expected to increase by 3.67%. The narrowing of the standard - fat price difference reduces the willingness to hold pigs for fattening. Secondary fattening will support the pig price, but overall, the pig price may decline resistantly. [4] - **Trading Strategy**: Secondary fattening is cooling down, and the price is expected to be volatile and weak. [4] Energy and Chemicals LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The LLDPE main contract fell slightly yesterday. [5] - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, new devices are being put into operation, and spring maintenance is ending, increasing supply. The import window is closed, and imports are expected to decrease. On the demand side, the peak season for agricultural films is ending, and exports of plastic products are expected to decline. [5] - **Trading Strategy**: In the short - term, it is mainly volatile and weak, and it is recommended to short on rallies. In the long - term, supply and demand will gradually ease, and it is recommended to short the far - month contracts on rallies. [5] PVC - **Market Performance**: The PVC V09 contract closed at 5041, down 0.38%. [5] - **Fundamentals**: Supply and demand are both weak, and the price is stable. Spring maintenance is coming, and the supply is expected to decrease. The inventory has declined from a high level. [5] - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to hedge after the price recovers to a high premium. [5] PTA - **Market Performance**: The PX CFR China price is 738 US dollars/ton, and the PTA East China spot price is 4329 yuan/ton. [6] - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, PX and PTA supply has decreased in April, and polyester load is high, but downstream load has decreased. Pay attention to export orders after the tariff suspension. [6] - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to the long - short spread opportunity if there is a short - term rush to export. [6] Rubber - **Market Performance**: The RU2509 contract fell 1.98%, closing at 14635 yuan/ton. [6] - **Fundamentals**: Raw material output is limited, and the purchase price is relatively firm. The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises has decreased, and the social inventory has increased. [6] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see or trade in the range, and pay attention to the support level at 14000 yuan/ton. [6] Glass - **Market Performance**: The FG09 contract closed at 1179, down 0.4%. [6] - **Fundamentals**: Supply and demand are both weak, and the inventory is stable. The price of glass fuel has increased due to US tariffs. There are both positive policy expectations and weak actual demand. [6] - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected to continue to fluctuate within the range. [6] PP - **Market Performance**: The PP main contract fell slightly yesterday. [6] - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, short - term maintenance is ending, and new devices are starting up. The export window is open, and pay attention to the impact of tariffs on PDH devices. On the demand side, downstream production plans vary, and pay attention to the impact of tariff suspension on exports. [6] - **Trading Strategy**: In the short - term, it is mainly volatile. Pay attention to the impact on PDH device operation and new device commissioning. [6] MEG - **Market Performance**: The MEG East China spot price is 4329 yuan/ton. [6] - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, domestic and overseas device maintenance will reduce supply, and the inventory has decreased. Polyester load is high, but downstream load has decreased. Pay attention to export orders after the tariff suspension. [6] - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected to be strong in the short - term but has limited upside in the long - term. [7] Styrene - **Market Performance**: The main contract fell slightly yesterday. [7] - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, pure benzene inventory is high, and styrene inventory is normal and expected to decrease slightly. On the demand side, downstream profits are improving, but exports are affected by tariffs. Pay attention to the impact of tariff suspension on exports. [7] - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected to fluctuate with the cost (pure benzene) and long the month - spread. [7] Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The SA05 contract closed flat at 1359. [7] - **Fundamentals**: The operating rate is 90%, and the inventory is high and stable. Downstream photovoltaic glass is being put into production. The supply - demand is healthy, but there is no obvious driving force. [7] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see. [7] Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: The caustic soda sh09 contract closed flat. [7] - **Fundamentals**: The operating rate has slightly declined, and the inventory has decreased slightly. Non - aluminum downstream demand is weak. The price is pressured by the decline in the alumina industry chain. [7] - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected to continue to decline, and pay attention to the support level at 2200. [7] Shipping European Container Shipping - **Market Performance**: The main contract fell 6.21% yesterday. [8] - **Fundamentals**: The US exemption of high tariffs on semiconductor imports will slightly increase US - bound trade volume, but overall Sino - US trade volume will still be much lower than before the trade war. Exports are turning to re - export and domestic sales. The supply side is affected by tariff policies, and the demand side shows different trends in different regions. [8] - **Trading Strategy**: The overall shipping rate outlook is pessimistic under the trade war. Short the 10 - month contract on rallies. [8]