Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - situation has marginally improved, but the upside space is limited. Zinc is an oversupplied variety, and inventory accumulation has begun in all links of the industrial chain. The overall outlook for the year is bearish. In July, smelters are actively resuming production. Considering the resumption of production after maintenance and new production, the month - on - month increase may be between 15,000 and 20,000 tons. It is the off - season for consumption, and downstream demand is weak. It is expected that the valuation center of Shanghai zinc will decline, and the month - on - month increase in social inventory will rise [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Qualitative Analysis of Zinc - **Core Viewpoint**: The outlook is oscillating weakly. The macro - situation has marginally improved, but the upside space is limited. Zinc is an oversupplied variety, and inventory accumulation has begun in all links of the industrial chain. The overall outlook for the year is bearish. In July, smelters are actively resuming production. Considering the resumption of production after maintenance and new production, the month - on - month increase may be between 15,000 and 20,000 tons. It is the off - season for consumption, and downstream demand is weak. It is expected that the valuation center of Shanghai zinc will decline, and the month - on - month increase in social inventory will rise [3]. - **Smelting Profit**: Bearish. The weekly domestic processing fee is 3,800 yuan/metal ton; the weekly imported TC is 65 US dollars/dry ton, with a small month - on - month increase. The average smelting profit without considering by - products has risen to around - 200 yuan/ton [3]. - **Spot Premium/Discount**: Bearish. Shanghai has a premium of 30 yuan/ton over the 2508 contract; Guangdong has a discount of - 45 yuan/ton over the 2509 contract; Tianjin has a discount of 20 yuan/ton over the 2508 contract [3]. - **Galvanized Steel Pipe开工率**: Bearish. The weekly production capacity utilization rate of galvanized steel pipes is 49.91%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.61% [3]. - **Alloy开工率**: Bearish. The weekly alloy production capacity utilization rate is 58.45%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.65% [3]. - **Domestic Inventory**: Bearish. The inventory in the original three regions has increased by 500 tons, and the inventory in the seven regions has increased by 400 tons [3]. - **LME Premium/Discount**: Bullish. The LME zinc 0 - 3 premium/discount has risen to around - 10 US dollars/ton [3]. - **Import Profit**: Bullish. The import window is closed. The LME zinc ingot has a loss of 1,300 yuan/ton compared to the Shanghai zinc spot and a loss of 1,400 yuan/ton compared to the Shanghai zinc 2508 futures [3]. - **LME Inventory**: Bearish. The total LME zinc inventory is 121,500 tons, with a weekly inventory increase of 15,800 tons [3]. 2. Monthly Balance Sheet of Zinc - **Total Production**: Varies from month to month, with 546,900 tons in March 2025 and 595,100 tons in July 2025 [4]. - **Import**: Ranges from 26,700 tons to 39,700 tons from January to December 2025, with a decrease in some months [4]. - **Export**: Remains relatively stable at around 1,000 tons per month [4]. - **Total Supply**: Fluctuates between 515,100 tons and 626,100 tons throughout the year [4]. - **Total Consumption**: Ranges from 485,600 tons to 618,200 tons, showing different trends in different months [4]. - **Surplus Quantity**: There are periods of surplus and deficit, with a surplus of 261,000 tons in July 2025 [4]. 3. Weekly Fundamental Situation - **Production News**: Australian copper miner 29Metals reported a decline in both copper and zinc production in the second quarter. Vedanta's zinc concentrate production in the second quarter of 2025 increased by 7% year - on - year. EmSulliden Mining Capital Inc. obtained a 48% stake in a nickel, zinc, and lead exploration project in Poland. Hudbay Minerals suspended operations in the Snow Lake area due to wildfires [7]. 4. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fees - **Domestic Processing Fee**: The 50% grade zinc concentrate processing fee is in the range of 3,600 - 4,300 yuan/metal ton, with a national average of 3,800 yuan/metal ton, unchanged month - on - month [9]. - **Imported Processing Fee**: The imported zinc concentrate processing fee ranges from 50 to 80 US dollars/dry ton, with an average of 65 US dollars/dry ton, unchanged month - on - month. The long - term tender price of overseas zinc concentrates has not increased significantly, but the container bulk cargo transaction price has increased, and the overall trend of imported ores is upward [9]. 5. Zinc Concentrate Import and Inventory - **Import Volume**: In May 2025, the import volume of zinc ore and concentrates was 491,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.63%. The cumulative import volume from January to May was 2.204 million tons [10]. - **Import Source Countries**: Mainly from Australia, Peru, Russia, and South Africa, with Peru and Australia being the major ones [12]. - **Port Inventory**: As of July 11, the total port inventory was 333,000 tons, including 80,000 tons in Lianyungang and 140,000 tons in Fangchenggang. Recent port transactions have decreased, and traders are waiting to sell [15]. 6. Zinc Futures Prices - **Shanghai Zinc Futures**: Last week, the main contract of Shanghai zinc opened at 22,340 yuan/ton, with a weekly high of 22,475 yuan/ton, a low of 21,865 yuan/ton, and closed at 22,380 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.13%. The monthly spread has fallen below 100 yuan, and the cost - effectiveness of the monthly spread ratio is not high, so it is currently advisable to wait and see [18]. - **LME Zinc Futures**: Last week, LME zinc opened at 2,733.5 US dollars/ton, with a weekly high of 2,785 US dollars/ton, a low of 2,675.5 US dollars/ton, and closed at 2,738 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.09%. The outer market maintains a backwardation structure, and the LME zinc 0 - 3 discount is around - 10 US dollars/ton [20]. 7. Zinc Import Profit and Ratio - **Shanghai - London Ratio**: As of this Tuesday, the Shanghai - London ratio of zinc has dropped to 8.15, and the exchange - adjusted ratio has dropped to 1.14. The import window is closed, and the current spot import loss is 900 yuan/ton [25]. 8. Refined Zinc Production and Consumption - **Production**: In July, many smelters are resuming or starting production. Yunnan, Guangxi, Qinghai, and Henan smelters contribute to the increase, while Inner Mongolia and Gansu smelters contribute to the decrease. It is expected that the refined zinc production in July 2025 will increase by about 20,000 tons month - on - month [33]. - **Import**: In May 2025, China imported 26,700 tons of refined zinc, a year - on - year decrease of 39.85%. The main import countries are Kazakhstan, Australia, and Spain, with Kazakhstan and Australia accounting for 58.7% and 13.56% respectively. The main import provinces are Shanghai and Zhejiang [35]. - **Downstream Consumption**: The production capacity utilization rate of galvanized pipes is 49.91%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.61%. The alloy production capacity utilization rate is 58.45%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.65%. The terminal consumption has not improved, and the market order transactions are not good [3][40][42]. 9. Zinc Inventory - **SHFE Inventory**: As of July 11, the total SHFE refined zinc inventory was 49,500 tons, with a weekly inventory increase of about 4,000 tons [53]. - **LME Inventory**: As of July 11, the total LME zinc inventory was 121,500 tons, with a weekly inventory increase of 15,800 tons [53]. - **Seven - Region Inventory**: As of July 17, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions was 93,500 tons, an increase of 3,300 tons compared to July 10, with significant inventory increases in Guangdong and Tianjin [60]. 10. Lead - Zinc Ratio - The lead - zinc ratio has risen slightly. As of this Tuesday, the domestic lead - zinc ratio is 0.77, and the outer - market lead - zinc ratio is 0.74 [61].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view on urea is neutral. In terms of supply, summer maintenance has increased, leading to a decline in production; export profits are high, but export quotas have not been significantly relaxed. For demand, the autumn pre - sales of compound fertilizers have started, with a slow increase in the operating rate, and industrial demand is lukewarm. In the short term, domestic driving factors are not obvious, and attention should be paid to changes in export policies [4]. - The view on the month - spread is neutral to bullish. Opportunities for the month - spread to strengthen due to export boosts can continue to be monitored [4]. - The view on policies is neutral. There are market rumors about an increase in the export guidance price and the release of a new round of export quotas, but there is no definite news of a significant relaxation of exports [4]. - The view on the spot market is neutral. The operating rate of compound fertilizers is slowly increasing, but enterprise orders are stable, and trading is lukewarm [4]. - The view on inventory is neutral. Enterprise inventories continue to decline, while port inventories continue to rise. Some enterprise inventories are transferred to ports, and export demand supports the current urea price [4]. - The view on exports is neutral to bullish. International prices continue to rise, further increasing potential export profits. In June, urea exports reached 70,000 tons. Based on the significantly increased port inventories, export volumes may further increase. There are rumors that the second - batch export quotas have been released, but the export volume is still limited [4]. - The view on demand is neutral. Compound fertilizer enterprises are advancing autumn fertilizer orders as needed, with a slow increase in the operating rate. The demand for melamine is weak, and the operating rate may remain low. Domestic demand lacks imagination [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Price Slightly Stabilized - Domestic agricultural demand is in the off - season. Although compound fertilizers have started autumn fertilizer production, the operating rate is rising slowly. There are market rumors that the pricing of the second - batch export quotas is high, resulting in fewer transactions of small and medium - sized particles and hindering small - package urea exports. Overall demand has not significantly increased, and enterprise sales are lukewarm [12]. - The export profit has further expanded. There are rumors that the second - batch quotas have been issued, and the export volume may increase [33]. Operating Rate May Remain High - Coal - based profits are still good. Summer maintenance has begun, causing the operating rate to decline, but it remains at a high level in recent years. According to Longzhong Information, some enterprises are under maintenance this period, and some are resuming production. Next week, one enterprise plans to shut down, and 4 - 5 shut - down enterprises' devices may resume production. The operating rate may slightly rebound, and supply pressure still exists [39]. Enterprises Continue to Reduce Inventory, and Port Aggregation Increases - This week, enterprise inventories continued to decline slightly. Low - price order receipts improved, but new order transactions were limited. Port inventories continued to rise, with large - particle goods arriving at Yantai Port and small - particle goods arriving at Rizhao, Tianjin, Zhenjiang, and Lianyungang Ports, while other ports showed no obvious changes [51]. Urea Profits Support High Operating Rates - Although coal prices have stabilized, they lack the basis for a continuous rebound. Coal - based urea still maintains high profits [60]. - As urea prices fluctuate at a low level, the profit of gas - based urea has almost disappeared [70]. Export Expectations May Improve - In June 2025, China exported a total of 4.29 million tons of various fertilizers, including 70,000 tons of urea, 1.86 million tons of ammonium sulfate, 510,000 tons of diammonium phosphate, and 170,000 tons of monoammonium phosphate. From January to June 2025, China's cumulative export of various fertilizers was 17.13 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 35.9%; the cumulative export amount was 4.069 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 25.9% [75]. Demand is Lukewarm - This week, the atmosphere in the compound fertilizer market has improved. The prices of raw materials, led by potash fertilizer, have risen. Autumn fertilizer pre - sales have started, and the market is oscillating strongly. The operating rate is slowly increasing. The prices of upstream synthetic ammonia are oscillating at a low level, while the prices of phosphate ammonium and potash fertilizer have risen. Urea prices remain range - bound. Currently, the sales of autumn fertilizers are the same as in previous years. In the short term, the supply and demand of compound fertilizers are stable, and price fluctuations are limited [85][91]. - The downstream demand for melamine is weak, and some panel factories have shut down for holidays. However, since the price is close to the cost, the downward space is also limited. Some large - scale devices in Sichuan and Xinjiang have resumed, and some devices in Xinjiang and Shandong are expected to resume next week. The operating rate of melamine may slightly increase [99][103]. Coal is Weak, and Gas is Strong - Recently, coal consumption has entered the peak season. High temperatures in many places have increased the power load, and coal demand has increased, leading to a stable rebound in prices. However, due to the increase in new - energy power generation squeezing thermal power demand and the high inventory of power plants, overall, coal prices lack the power for continuous upward movement [130]. - Synthetic ammonia shows a differentiated trend of falling in the north and rising in the south. In the northern market, supply has increased due to the resumption of maintenance enterprises, but demand has not increased, putting pressure on prices. In the southern market, affected by the increase in the operating rate of downstream phosphate fertilizer enterprises, low - price enterprises have started to raise their quotes [138]. Futures and Spot are Oscillating, and the Month - Spread is Slightly Strengthening - Recently, the number of warehouse receipts is significantly higher than in the same period in history [164]. Balance Sheet - Recently, there have been many maintenance operations, and production may decrease slightly month - on - month [169]. - The balance sheet shows the total supply, production, imports, total demand, and other data of urea from September 2024 to December 2025, as well as the year - on - year changes in production, supply, and consumption [167].

交易咨询证号：Z0019583 研究联系方式： kangjian@zjtfqh.com 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 审核：李文涛 交易咨询证号：Z0015640 静待铁水回落 观点小结 铁矿石 解析 铁矿周报 2025/7/23 作者：康健 从业资格证号：F03088041 库存 45港库存环比增19.24万吨，贸易矿占比65.7%。钢厂进口矿总库存减157.48万吨，厂库增16万吨，海漂+港口减174万吨；进口矿可用 天数增长1天至20天。 钢厂利润 成材利润继续走弱；唐山废铁价差走低；块矿入炉比大幅走高，球团入炉比上行；烧结入炉比下滑。 折扣&汇率 7月MA指数均值为100，对应盘面估值约为788。 品种间差异 金巴布粉溢价继续回升；主流中低品溢价稳定；内外矿价差回落。 天气 巴西降水稀少 巴西天气：北部降水回落，其他地区降水稀少 周度评述 供应端全球发运量企稳回升，澳洲发运企稳，巴西发运偏高，非主流地区发运低位企稳，到港量开始回升。需求端铁水再度增长，成 材利润下滑，废铁价差下滑，247样本日均铁水环比+2.63万吨至242.44万吨，7月的月均铁水约241万吨，近期钢厂高炉复产与检修持 平， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for nickel is neutral to bearish, while for tin, no specific investment rating is provided in the report [3]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As the supply of nickel ore gradually increases and the smelting capacity is abundant, the inventory of refined nickel at home and abroad has been accumulating, and the actual demand is not optimistic. Although the trading expectation of the anti - involution policy has not cooled down, the nickel price trend is increasingly deviating from the fundamentals, and there is still upward pressure [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel - **Price and Market Performance**: - As of July 21, the CIF prices of Philippine laterite nickel ore with 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% nickel content were flat at $30, $58.5, and $80.5 per wet ton respectively compared to last week. The domestic trade nickel ore prices in Indonesia with Ni1.2% and Ni1.6% were flat at $25 and $52.2 per wet ton respectively as of July 18 [3]. - The freight rates from the Philippines to Tianjin Port and Lianyungang were flat at $12.5 and $11.5 per wet ton respectively last week [3]. - The electrolytic nickel export profit and loss decreased by $6.65 per ton to $45.4 per ton last week, a decrease of 12.8% [3]. - As of July 21, the average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by $2 per nickel point to $901.5 per nickel point, a decrease of 0.22% [3]. - As of July 18, the LME nickel price increased by $10 per ton to $15,245 per ton, an increase of 0.07%. The LME nickel 0 - 3 spot premium increased by $7.81 per ton to - $194.43 per ton [21]. - As of July 18, the electrolytic nickel spot price decreased by $650 per ton to $121,500 per ton, a decrease of 0.53% [15]. - As of July 18, the Jinchuan nickel price decreased by $700 per ton to $122,450 per ton, a decrease of 0.57%, and the Jinchuan nickel premium was flat at $2,000 per ton [16]. - Last week, the imported nickel price decreased by $700 per ton to $120,800 per ton, a decrease of 0.58%, and the imported nickel premium was flat at $350 per ton [16]. - **Production and Inventory**: - As of July 2025, China's monthly electrolytic nickel production increased by 0.04 million tons to 3.22 million tons, an increase of 1.26% [3][43]. - As of July 21, the SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased by 815 tons to 22,100 tons, an increase of 3.83%. The LME nickel warehouse receipts increased by 0.13 million tons to 207,900 tons, an increase of 0.63% [47]. - Last week, the pure nickel social inventory (including the SHFE) increased by 1,165 tons to 40,400 tons, an increase of 2.89% [3][47]. - As of July 18, the nickel ore port inventory decreased by 50,000 tons to 7.15 million wet tons, a decrease of 0.69% [32]. - According to customs data, in June 2025, the national nickel ore import volume was 4.3466 million tons, an increase of 10.68% month - on - month and a decrease of 9.21% year - on - year. As of June 2025, the cumulative national nickel ore import volume was 14.7812 million tons, a cumulative decrease of 8.36% year - on - year [32]. - **Related Products**: - As of July 21, the MHP FOB price decreased by $132 per ton to $12,347 per ton, a decrease of 1.06%; the high - grade nickel matte FOB price decreased by $90 per ton to $12,928 per ton, a decrease of 0.69% [38]. - As of July 2025, the Indonesian MHP production increased by 0.07 million tons to 3.87 million tons, an increase of 1.84%; the high - grade nickel matte production increased by 0.08 million tons to 1.35 million tons, an increase of 6.30% [38]. - As of June 2025, the MHP monthly import volume was 1.282 million tons, a decrease of 10.21% month - on - month; the high - grade nickel matte monthly import volume was 225,000 tons, a decrease of 0.3% [38]. Tin - The tin monthly balance sheet shows the production, import, export, consumption, and surplus of tin from January to December 2025. The supply and consumption have different year - on - year and cumulative year - on - year changes each month [4]. Sulfuric Acid Nickel - As of June 2025, China's monthly sulfuric acid nickel production decreased by 0.12 million tons to 2.48 million nickel tons, a decrease of 4.69%. Most manufacturers produce according to sales, and the overall production of sulfuric acid nickel is weak this year, with no expectation of resuming production for previously reduced or shut - down manufacturers [58]. - As of June 2025, China's monthly sulfuric acid nickel import volume was 1.33 million tons, a decrease of 27.35% month - on - month and a decrease of 10.01% year - on - year; the monthly export volume was 782.1 tons, an increase of 3.66% month - on - month and a decrease of 41.02% year - on - year [58]. - As of July 22, the profit margins of producing sulfuric acid nickel from MHP, nickel beans, high - grade nickel matte, and yellow slag decreased to - 2.6%, - 4%, 1.1%, and - 4.1% respectively compared to last week. Most manufacturers using externally purchased raw materials are in losses [65]. Ferronickel - As of June 2025, the national ferronickel production (metal content) decreased by 0.16 thousand tons to 25.64 thousand tons, a decrease of 0.59%. The Indonesian ferronickel production decreased by 0.46 million tons to 13.68 million tons, a decrease of 3.26%. Some Indonesian iron plants have reduced production, and a small number of manufacturers have switched to producing nickel matte [3][74]. - As of July 15, the ferronickel inventory in major domestic regions decreased by 0.43 million tons to 33,200 nickel tons (average grade 11.79%), a decrease of 11.46% [80]. Stainless Steel - As of June 2025, the national stainless - steel crude steel production decreased by 17.13 million tons to 329.16 million tons, a decrease of 4.95%. The 300 - series production decreased by 4.07 million tons to 174.4 million tons, a decrease of 2.28% [91]. - As of July 18, the stainless - steel market inventory decreased by 1.97 million tons to 114.78 million tons, a decrease of 1.69%. The 300 - series inventory decreased by 0.74 million tons to 68.75 million tons, a decrease of 1.06% [87]. - As of July 22, the stainless - steel warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 0.75 million tons to 10.35 million tons, a decrease of 6.77% [87]. - As of June 2025, China's monthly stainless - steel import volume was 10.95 million tons, a decrease of 12.48% month - on - month and a decrease of 16.61% year - on - year; the monthly export volume was 39.0 million tons, a decrease of 10.63% month - on - month and a decrease of 13.51% year - on - year [91]. - As of July 22, the production cash cost of Chinese cold - rolled 304 stainless steel decreased by $126 per ton to $13,141 per ton, a decrease of 0.92%. The cold - rolled stainless - steel coil profit margin increased by 1.6 percentage points to - 4.88% [96].