反弹有空间吗 双双双双 2 0 2 5 / 1 2 / 1 7 观点小结 作者：刘宇涵 从业资格证号：F03121274 交易咨询证号：Z0023240 联系方式：liuyuhan@zjtfqh.com 审核：李文涛 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 交易咨询证号：Z0015640 观点小结 | 焦煤 | 定性 | 解析 | | --- | --- | --- | | 核心观点 | 震荡 | 现货市场情绪稍有好转，竞拍流拍下滑。国产煤供应继续下滑，因年底部分煤矿完成生产目标后减产； 蒙煤通关近期回升，昨日甘其毛都通关突破1600车新高，海运煤在过去两周有集中到港，但目前进口性 价比不佳，后续可能到港减少，整体供应端压力主要在蒙煤；需求端，下游保持刚需拉运，未出现集中 | | | | 采购，补库驱动一般；焦煤矿山、蒙煤口岸均累库，矿山库存累库速度放缓，下游目前仅有少量补库动 作；焦煤供需驱动不明显，短期关注后续是否存在集中补库带动反弹。 | | 现货 | 中性 | 现货市场成交情绪略有好转，线上竞拍流拍率下降，部分成交价格有涨；产地煤价部分继续回落，但降 | | | | 价后成交也有好转；山西安泽低硫主焦下 ...

关注出口 钢钢钢钢 2 0 2 5 / 1 2 / 1 5 作者：李文涛 从业资格证号：F3050524 交易咨询证号：Z0015640 研究联系方式：18616861246 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 研究助理：尹艺瑾 从业资格证号：F03125275 联系方式：13752670838 审核：李文涛 交易咨询证号：Z0015640 观点小结 | 钢材 | 定性 | 解析 | | --- | --- | --- | | 核心观点 | 偏强 | 上周盘面跟随原料大幅下行，周五晚间商务部海关总署公告2025年第79号公布对部分钢铁产品实施出口 许可证管理，市场预期对2026年钢材相关产品出口量将有所压制。上周铁水继续回落至230万吨/日以下， 五品种成材产量环比继续季节性下降，除中厚板以外，库存均有不同幅度下降，需求整体环比下行，仅 | | | | 冷轧继续小幅回升。长流程钢厂利润再次回落，短流程钢厂利润持续向好，废钢价格下降让利明显。盘 面煤焦价格再次暴跌，关注后续现货价格博弈情况。建议关注钢厂利润相关头寸。 | | 月差 | 偏强 | 螺纹月差结构为contango，1-5月差环比继续走强。 | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views 2.1 Coking Coal - In 2025, China's cumulative raw coal production from January to October was 3.97 billion tons, with coking coal production at about 397 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.16%. The annual production was high in the first half and low in the second half. In 2026, domestic coking coal production is expected to have a ceiling, with an estimated output of about 479 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. From January to October 2025, coking coal imports were 94.12 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5%. In 2026, imports are expected to rise slightly, mainly due to an increase in Mongolian coal, while US coal imports may remain at 0 due to tariffs. The estimated import volume in 2026 is 114 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.8% [3]. - In 2025, domestic coking coal consumption is expected to be about 597 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 1.9%. In 2026, steel demand and supply are not expected to change significantly, and coking coal demand will lack drivers. The estimated consumption in 2026 is 595 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6% [3]. - In 2025, the coking coal inventory structure changed significantly. In the first half, inventory accumulated upstream, while in the second half, it shifted from upstream to mid - and downstream, showing a de - stocking pattern throughout the year. In 2026, coking coal consumption may not have strong drivers, domestic supply is expected to increase slightly, and the focus for imports is on the increase in Mongolian coal. The total supply is expected to increase by about 4 million tons, and the demand is difficult to absorb, resulting in a supply - demand surplus. However, supply policies will provide a bottom - support, and the price floor is expected to rise [3]. 2.2 Coke - From January to October 2025, China's cumulative coke production was 419 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.3%. In 2026, coke production is expected to decrease by about 3 million tons, with a cumulative output of 494 million tons and an actual supply of 410 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.6% [4]. - From January to October 2025, the average daily hot metal production of 247 steel mills increased by 3.3% year - on - year. In 2025, domestic coke consumption is expected to be about 399 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. In 2026, steel supply and demand have no strong drivers, and pig iron production is expected to be flat year - on - year, so domestic coke consumption will remain at 399 million tons. In terms of exports, China's coke has a price advantage, but the increase in Indonesia's production and exports has an impact. In 2026, coke exports are estimated to drop to about 7.5 million tons [4]. - In 2025, the coke inventory structure was similar to that of coking coal. In the first half, coke enterprises had high inventory pressure, and in the second half, upstream inventory shifted downstream, showing a de - stocking pattern. In 2026, there will still be surplus pressure, and inventory is expected to accumulate slightly. Overall, coke prices mainly follow coking coal. In 2026, considering semi - coke and losses, the actual supply growth rate is expected to be about - 0.6%, and total demand will be flat or slightly lower than this year, still showing a supply - demand surplus. Future attention should be paid to changes in coal cost and macro - policies [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Double - Coking Market Review - In 2025, the double - coking futures market fluctuated greatly. In the first quarter, the market expected an oversupply of domestic coal mines and weak demand, causing the futures price to decline. In the second quarter, macro - tariff shocks and the lack of production cuts by coal enterprises led to a bear - dominated market. In June, the market rebounded due to overcrowded short positions and low valuations. In July, the anti - involution policy was implemented, and coking coal prices strengthened significantly. From August to October, coking coal prices fluctuated widely at a high level under the support of over - production inspections. From November to December, the market weakened again due to an increase in Mongolian coal imports and early winter stockpiling [7]. 3.2 Coking Coal 3.2.1 Spot and Price - Coking coal spot prices first declined and then rose. In the first half, they declined in tandem with the futures market, bottomed out in late June, and rebounded in July. After September, the spot market tightened, and some coking coal varieties faced structural shortages. The strong thermal coal market also provided support, making the coking coal spot market firm [15]. - The price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal fluctuated greatly throughout the year. It dropped to a low of 700 yuan/ton in the first half and then increased due to a decrease in its proportion in customs clearance, reaching a high of 1170 yuan/ton at the end of October. The long - term contract price in Q4 was 57.3 US dollars/ton, 3 US dollars higher than Q3, and is expected to increase slightly in Q1 2026. The price of imported seaborne coal fluctuated within a relatively small range, and it became cost - effective after the domestic coal price bottomed out in the middle of the year [22]. 3.2.2 Policy and Market Impact - In July 2025, the National Energy Administration launched over - production inspections, which made the market shift its expectation of coal supply to "over - production inspection." Coking coal became a benchmark for the "anti - involution" of the black industry, and actual production shrank in the second half of the year. In November, the National Development and Reform Commission emphasized energy supply during the heating season, and the policy focus was adjusted temporarily. In the long term, "anti - involution + over - production inspection" will continue to have an impact [23]. - In 2021, after coal prices reached a historical high, the profit of the black industry chain gradually shifted to raw materials, promoting investment and a new capacity - expansion cycle in the coal industry. In recent years, coal industry profits have declined year by year, and new capacity has decreased significantly compared with 2021 - 2023. Currently, the coal industry may be at the end of the capacity - expansion cycle [26]. - In June 2025, coal prices dropped below the cost. Some coal mines adopted a "quantity - for - price" strategy and even over - produced, disrupting the market order. The "over - production inspection" policy ended this vicious cycle and promoted the coal industry to control capacity and production, moving towards high - quality supply [30]. 3.2.3 Production - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to October 2025, the production of above - scale industrial raw coal was 3.97 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. Production was high in the first half, but "anti - involution + over - production inspection" policies took effect in the second half, and production decreased year - on - year from July [31]. - By province, from January to October 2025, Shanxi's cumulative raw coal production was 1.08 billion tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.9%, providing the largest increase in coal production this year. The production of Shanxi, Xinjiang, and Shaanxi increased steadily, while Inner Mongolia's production declined due to environmental protection and capacity integration. In 2026, Xinjiang may be the main area for production growth, and the growth rate of raw coal production may decline under the over - production inspection policy [34]. - Coking coal production was high in the first half and low in the second half of 2025. There were few supply disruptions from January to May, but production decreased in June due to factors such as work - face changes, maintenance, and full storage. After the over - production inspection in July, production remained low in the second half. In 2026, the impact of over - production inspection will be long - term, and domestic coking coal production has a ceiling, with limited growth compared to 2025 [41]. - Based on Fenwei's data, from January to October 2025, the cumulative production of coking clean coal was 397 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.16%. The annual output is expected to remain at the current level or decline slightly, with a year - on - year increase of about 3.8 million tons. In 2026, under the over - production inspection policy, coking coal production is expected to be about 479 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.6% [46]. 3.2.4 Import - In the first three quarters of 2025, global coal production increased. China's production from Q1 - Q3 was 3.57 billion tons, ranking first with a stable year - on - year growth rate of 2%. India was the second - largest coal - producing country with high - speed growth, while Indonesia actively reduced production, with a year - on - year decrease of 7.5% in the first three quarters [49]. - From January to October 2025, China imported 387.62 million tons of coal, a year - on - year decrease of 11%. Coal imports decreased significantly this year, especially in the first half, due to the lack of cost - effectiveness of imported coal after price declines. In the second half, as domestic coal prices rebounded, import profits increased, and import volume recovered but remained lower than the previous year [57]. - From January to October 2025, coking coal imports totaled 94.12 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.8%. "Mongolian coal + Russian coal" accounted for 78% of imports, while the proportion of seaborne coal decreased. Imports were low in the first half, mainly due to large decreases in Mongolian and US coal imports. In the second half, as domestic production decreased, Mongolian coal imports increased [61]. - In 2026, the main import growth is expected to come from Mongolian coal, with an estimated total import volume of 114 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1% [62]. - In 2025, Mongolian coal imports were low in the first half and high in the second half. In the first half, customs clearance was significantly lower than last year due to high inventory and weak demand. In the second half, as domestic production decreased and demand recovered, customs clearance increased. In 2026, Mongolia plans to increase coal exports to China to 100 million tons, but the core factors affecting customs clearance are regulatory - area storage and terminal demand [63][66]. - In 2025, from January to October, Russian coal imports were 26.42 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4%. Russian coal enterprises' losses increased, and coal production and exports declined, but metallurgical coal exports increased. India's imports of Russian coking coal increased, diverting some of China's imports. In 2025, Russian coal imports are expected to be 32 million tons, and in 2026, it is expected to increase slightly by 1 million tons [71]. - In 2025, from January to April, US coal imports totaled 2.91 million tons. After May, imports dropped to 0 due to tariffs. In 2026, considering the un - lifted tariffs and poor cost - effectiveness, US coal imports are still difficult to resume. From January to October 2025, Canada coal imports were 9.17 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 28%. Due to the significant decrease in US coal imports, Canada coal imports increased significantly. In 2025, Canada coal imports are expected to be about 11 million tons, and next year may remain flat or increase slightly [76]. - In 2025, from January to October, Australian coal imports were 6.23 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 10%. In the first half, imported Australian coal lacked cost - effectiveness due to falling domestic coal prices. After July, import profit opportunities emerged, and imports recovered. In 2025, Australian coal imports are expected to be about 8 million tons. In 2026, considering the production increase plans of Australian coal enterprises, Australian coal imports may increase [77][82]. 3.2.5 Inventory - In the first half of 2025, coking coal inventory accumulated upstream, while downstream maintained low inventory. In the second half, inventory shifted from upstream to downstream, showing a de - stocking pattern throughout the year. The change in mid - stream inventory was one of the main reasons for the large market fluctuations this year. In 2025, coking coal winter stockpiling may be weak. Considering the growth potential of production and imports and limited demand changes, coking coal inventory may accumulate in 2026 [102]. 3.3 Coke 3.3.1 Capacity and Production - The coke industry has a low industrial concentration and is mainly composed of private enterprises, so it is more likely to trigger "capacity reduction" during industry downturns. Currently, the total in - production coking capacity in China is about 567 million tons, with about 52.49 million tons of capacity from coke ovens with a carbonization chamber height of 4.3 meters or less (including heat - recovery coke ovens) and about 514.85 million tons of capacity from ovens with a height of 5.5 meters or more. Coke ovens with a height of 4.3 meters or less are expected to be phased out, mostly by 2026. Some small - scale coking enterprises with weak anti - cycle risk capabilities may also be cleared, and there is room for capacity reduction [112]. - As of the end of November 2025, 16.82 million tons of coking capacity were eliminated, and 15.77 million tons were newly added, resulting in a net elimination of 1.05 million tons. It is expected that in 2025, 16.82 million tons of capacity will be eliminated, and 21.5 million tons will be newly added, resulting in a net increase of 4.68 million tons. In 2025, capacity reduction mainly occurred in Shandong, while new capacity was concentrated in Inner Mongolia and Shanxi [115]. - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to October 2025, China's cumulative coke production was 419 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.3%. This year, coking enterprises had poor profitability but higher average profits than last year, with medium - to - high production levels. In 2026, considering the possible continued low profitability of coking enterprises and the lack of demand drivers, coke production is expected to remain flat or decline slightly [122]. 3.3.2 Export - From January to October 2025, China's total coke exports were 6.22 million tons, a significant year - on - year decrease of 22%. The main export destinations were Indonesia, Japan, India, and Malaysia. China's coke still has a price advantage, but the increase in Indonesia's production and exports has impacted China's export market. In 2026, China's coke exports are estimated to be about 7.5 million tons [125]. 3.3.3 Inventory - In 2025, coke production - end inventory gradually decreased, while steel mills had sufficient inventory throughout the year [131]. 3.4 Demand - From January to October 2025, the real estate market continued to decline, with a 19.8% decrease in new housing starts and a 1.7% year - on - year decrease in fixed - asset investment. Infrastructure investment decreased by 0.1%, manufacturing investment increased by 2.7%, and real estate development investment decreased by 14.7%. From January to October, cumulative steel exports were 97.74 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.6%. This year, the main story of steel demand was exports. In 2026, steel demand is expected to change little from this year, and attention should be paid to the impact of overseas policies on direct and indirect exports [141]. - From January to October 2025, China's crude steel production was 818 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.9%. The average daily hot metal production of 247 steel mills increased by 3.3% year - on - year, and hot metal production was mostly at a high level compared to the previous year. In 2026, steel supply and demand are not expected to change significantly, and pig iron production is expected to be similar to this year [144]. 3.5 Balance Sheet 3.5.1 Coking Coal - In 2026, coking coal production is expected to be about 479 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. Imports are expected to recover slightly, mainly due to an increase in Mongolian coal

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Manganese Silicon**: The core view on manganese silicon is bullish. The weekly futures price trended down in a volatile manner, with a slight increase in weekly output and a continued decline in demand. Mainstream steel mills in China have entered the market for procurement. The price set by a large Hebei mill is 5,770 yuan/ton, and prices in the East China region generally hover around 5,750 yuan/ton, with the downside space gradually narrowing. The low-price quotes in the futures and spot markets have decreased, and the basis of the Inner Mongolia delivery price remains at around 220, narrowing the gap with the factory spot price. On the cost side, high-grade oxidized ores at the northern and southern ports of manganese ore have risen and remained firm, and the quotes of overseas mines have increased slightly. On the morning of December 12, the price of chemical coke dropped by 50 yuan/ton. The market is watching the subsequent spot price game of coke, and the alloy profit is poor [3]. - **Silicon Iron**: The core view on silicon iron is also bullish. The weekly futures price trended down in a volatile manner. The market prices of 72 and 75 silicon iron are 5,050 - 5,200 yuan/ton and 5,550 - 5,700 yuan/ton respectively for cash natural lump ex - factory, showing little change from last week. The price set by HBIS is 5,660 yuan/ton, and the steel tender prices range from 5,650 to 5,700 yuan/ton. Silicon iron output has decreased, with a factory in Ulanqab and a factory in Zhongwei suspending production. The demand from steel mills has declined, while the output of magnesium metal has slightly increased. In terms of cost and profit, the current immediate profitability of the main production areas is poor, and coal prices have shown signs of loosening. Attention is paid to the subsequent impact on the price transmission of semi - coke [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Manganese Silicon - **Manganese Ore Inventory**: The total manganese ore port inventory is 451.3 tons, showing a slight increase compared to the previous period. Among them, the inventory at Tianjin Port has slightly increased to 3.771 million tons, still significantly lower than the same period last year, and the inventory at Qinzhou Port has slightly decreased to 737,000 tons, exceeding the level of the same period last year. In terms of different varieties, the South African ore inventory at Tianjin Port is 2.478 million tons, showing a slight increase; the Gabonese ore inventory is 288,000 tons, showing a significant increase compared to the previous period and far lower than the same period last year; the Australian ore inventory is 369,000 tons, showing a slight decrease and lower than the same period last year [10][14]. - **Manganese Ore Price**: At Tianjin Port, the price of Gabonese lumps is 43 yuan/ton - degree, Australian lumps are 41.5 yuan/ton - degree, and South African semi - carbonate is 34.2 yuan/ton - degree. The supply - demand game in the manganese ore market has intensified, quotes have remained firm, and the transaction prices are slightly lower than the quotes [17]. - **Manganese Silicon Production**: As of December 12, the weekly output of silicon manganese has increased to 189,000 tons. The daily average output in Inner Mongolia has slightly increased to 13,840 tons/day; in Ningxia, it has increased to 6,190 tons/day; in Yunnan, it remains at 970 tons/day; in Guizhou, it remains at 1,735 tons/day; in Guangxi, it has slightly decreased to 1,320 tons/day [27]. - **Manganese Silicon Demand**: As of December 12, the weekly demand of Mysteel sample enterprises is 112,800 tons, and the weekly output of the five major steel products has decreased to 806,220 tons. The proportion of rebar in the five major steel products in the Mysteel sample data continues to decline, lower than the historical average [31]. - **Manganese Silicon Price**: The market price in Inner Mongolia is around 5,520 yuan/ton, and in Tianjin it is 5,700 yuan/ton. The tender price set by HBIS is 5,770 yuan/ton [40]. - **Chemical Coke Price**: As of December 11, the ex - factory prices of 25 - 40mm chemical coke in Yinchuan, Ordos, and Alxa are 1,240 yuan/ton, 1,180 yuan/ton, and 1,190 yuan/ton respectively [43]. - **Manganese Silicon Production Profit**: The immediate profit of manganese silicon is low, and the point - to - point profit loss has intensified [47]. - **Manganese Silicon Month Spread**: As of December 11, the 1 - 5 month spread of manganese silicon is - 60 yuan/ton, showing continuous low - level fluctuations [52]. - **Manganese Silicon Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The futures price is fluctuating, and the basis is slightly volatile. As of December 11, the total of manganese silicon warehouse receipts and valid notices is 128,700 tons. Attention is paid to the subsequent recovery situation [54][55]. Silicon Iron - **Silicon Iron Production**: As of December 12, the weekly output of silicon iron is 106,300 tons, showing a slight decrease compared to the previous period. The daily average output in Inner Mongolia is 5,155 tons, in Qinghai it is 1,845 tons, in Ningxia it is 3,880 tons, and in Shaanxi it is 2,750 tons [70]. - **Silicon Iron Demand**: - **From Steel Mills**: The demand for silicon iron from steel mills has slightly decreased. The total consumption of silicon iron by Mysteel sample steel mills is 18,000 tons, significantly lower than the same period last year [75]. - **From Magnesium Metal**: The export price of magnesium metal at Tianjin Port is 2,270 US dollars/ton, and the market price is 15,650 yuan/ton, showing a slight overall decrease. The weekly output of magnesium metal is 21,357 tons, showing a slight increase compared to the previous period. The magnesium metal market is running weakly and stably. Affected by the previous low - price stimulation and the decline in raw material coal prices, the inquiry atmosphere in the retail market has cooled down. A small number of purchasers are making tentative offers, and most downstream buyers are hesitant and observing cautiously. There are differences in the supply - end shipments. Currently, medium - and large - scale manufacturers in the main production areas of Shaanxi have no intention to further reduce prices, while small factories are adjusting flexibly according to the market [79]. - **Silicon Iron Export**: As of December 11, the overseas FOB price of 75 silicon iron is 1,070 US dollars/ton, and that of 72 silicon iron is 1,020 US dollars/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous period. The import volume of silicon iron in October has increased slightly compared to the previous month, while the export volume has decreased significantly compared to the previous month and is lower than the same period last year [81]. - **Silicon Iron Raw Materials**: As of December 11, the quotes of mainstream small - sized semi - coke in different regions have remained stable. The current prices are 820 yuan/ton in Shaanxi, 920 yuan/ton in Ningxia, and 810 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia. The price of oxidized iron scale is 730 yuan/ton [98]. - **Silicon Iron Production Profit**: As of December 11, the point - to - point profit of silicon iron is in a loss state, with significant losses in Shaanxi and Qinghai regions. The production profits in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shaanxi, and Qinghai are - 444 yuan/ton, - 565 yuan/ton, - 569 yuan/ton, and - 833 yuan/ton respectively [104]. - **Silicon Iron Month Spread**: As of December 11, the 1 - 5 month spread of silicon iron is - 30 yuan/ton, showing a slight strengthening compared to the previous period [112]. - **Silicon Iron Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The futures price is fluctuating, and the basis of silicon iron is slightly volatile. As of December 11, the total of silicon iron warehouse receipts and valid notices is 67,000 tons. Attention is paid to the subsequent recovery of warehouse receipts [117]. Balance Sheet - **Manganese Silicon**: The balance sheet shows the supply and demand situation from June 2025 to May 2026, including total supply, production, imports, total demand, steel consumption, exports, net exports, surplus/deficit, cumulative year - on - year production growth, and cumulative year - on - year consumption growth [119]. - **Silicon Iron**: Similar to manganese silicon, it shows the supply - demand balance situation from June 2025 to May 2026, covering various aspects such as total supply, production, imports, total demand, domestic consumption (including crude steel and magnesium metal consumption), exports, net exports, surplus/deficit, cumulative year - on - year production growth, and cumulative year - on - year consumption growth [120].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PTA: Core view, month - spread, cost, device changes, downstream demand, and processing profit are rated neutral; spot and supply - demand balance are rated cautiously bullish [5] - PX: Core view, month - spread, spot, import, and downstream demand, and supply - demand balance are rated neutral; device changes and processing profit are rated cautiously bearish [6] - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): Core view and device changes, and import, and downstream demand are rated neutral; month - spread and spot, and supply - demand balance are rated cautiously bearish; processing profit is rated cautiously bullish [7] 2. Core Views - PTA: The near - end is tight, short - term supply - demand changes little, expected to destock in December. PXN at a high level reflects strong expectations, and investors should buy on dips [5][70] - PX: The overall pattern is expected to be good. High PXN valuation reflects expectations, short - term is expected to fluctuate, and investors should buy on dips [6][95] - Ethylene Glycol: There is an increase in maintenance on the margin, the balance has improved, but there is still inventory accumulation pressure. The valuation is not high, and the downside space is expected to be limited. The sustainability of the seasonal inventory - accumulation - driven rise needs to be observed, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [7][138] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Terminal and Polyester - Terminal demand is seasonally weakening. The operating rates of texturing, weaving, and dyeing have slightly decreased to 85%, 69%, and 74% respectively. New orders are weakening, and finished - product inventory is rising [9] - As of December 5, polyester load is around 91.8%, cash flow is at a low level, and average inventory is around 16 days. Polyester inventory pressure is not high and is slightly rising. Due to the late Spring Festival in 2026, polyester operating rate remains high, and overall cash flow performance is average [21] - Polyester overall profitability is average. The profits of filament POY and FDY are compressed, while staple fiber profitability is acceptable [22] - As of December 5, POY, DTY, FDY, and staple fiber inventories are 16.2, 26.8, 16.5, and 8.2 days respectively [32] - It is estimated that the polyester load in November and December will be 91% and 90% respectively. In the future, due to low inventory pressure and the late Spring Festival in 2026, the loads of filament and staple fiber are expected to remain high [48] 3.2 PTA - PTA devices are under planned maintenance, with a significant amount of maintenance. YS Ningbo, Dahua, Hainan, Ineos, Nengtou, and Dushan 1 are under maintenance [51] - As of December 5, PTA social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) is 216.9 tons, slightly decreasing. Inventory pressure before the end of the year is not high [55] - PTA balance table shows little change, with the near - end tight. Short - term supply - demand and expectations are good, and the valuation has reacted. Investors should buy on dips [70] - The net short positions of foreign - controlled futures company seats have decreased [71] 3.3 PX - U.S. gasoline inventory has rebounded from the bottom, and gasoline cracking has declined from a high level [81] - Blending for gasoline is average, and short - process profitability in Asia has slightly improved [83] - The aromatics price spread between the U.S. and Asia has slightly narrowed. The toluene price spread between the U.S. and Asia is 212 yuan, and the xylene price spread is 150 dollars. Xylene tariffs have been exempted [88] - Domestic PX load remains stable at 88.2%. Wushi Petrochemical has slightly increased its load, Zhejiang Petrochemical has slightly decreased its load, Sinochem Quanzhou is under maintenance, and Fujia plans to restart a line at the end of the month. Asian load is 78.6%, and GS is reducing its load with a subsequent disproportionation shutdown plan [90] - The PX balance shows a loose supply - demand balance. PXN is around 280 dollars, and the short - term is expected to fluctuate. Investors should buy on dips [95] - The PX outer - inner price spread has stabilized, the PX 1 - 5 month - spread remains stable, and TA05 processing fee has slightly rebounded from the bottom [96] - Industrial chain profits have slightly recovered from a low level. Valuation is mainly concentrated in PXN, which has recently risen to a high level, while PTA processing fee remains low. There is an opportunity to expand PTA processing fee after the demand off - season [105] 3.4 Ethylene Glycol - As of December 5, the total MEG load is 72.8%, and the coal - based load is 72%. Oil - based process maintenance has increased, and coal - based units have restarted after maintenance [107] - Domestic MEG load is 72.95%, and syngas - based load is 72.5%. Sanjiang plans to reduce its load, Maoming Petrochemical has shut down, Sinochem Quanzhou is shut down, CNOOC Shell Phase 2 and Fude plan to conduct maintenance on the 8th, and Shenghong's 100 - ton unit will be shut down until Q2 2026. Coal - chemical maintenance units are restarting one after another [114] - MEG profits are compressed. Oil - based units remain in losses, and coal - based losses have increased. There is an increase in oil - based unit maintenance on the margin [115] - Overseas device maintenance and load reduction have increased. 11 - 12 - month imports are estimated to be 650,000 tons each month, and imports may decline in January - February [125] - As of December 8, the MEG port inventory in the East China main port area is about 819,000 tons, an increase of 66,000 tons from last week. The actual arrival from December 1 - 7 is 163,000 tons, and the expected arrival from December 8 - 14 is 155,000 tons. Port inventory is expected to rise. Polyester factories' MEG raw material inventory days are 13.8 days [133] - There is an increase in maintenance on the margin, the balance has improved, but there is still inventory accumulation pressure. The valuation is not high, and the short - term is expected to fluctuate at a low level [138]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the 25/26 period, most oils are expected to increase in production. However, in 2025, the production and consumption growth rates of major biodiesel - producing countries globally slowed down, and the demand growth rates of various raw materials declined, except for palm oil, which maintained a relatively high growth rate. The market is still waiting for the US to announce the compliance obligation volumes for 2026 and 2027 and Indonesia's biodiesel policy. The low price of US crude oil limits the imagination space for biodiesel demand, unless the government is willing to provide substantial subsidies [207]. - Due to previous improvements in rainfall and fertilizers, as well as an increase in labor, Malaysia's production exceeded expectations this year, and Indonesia also had a significant increase in production, resulting in a divergence between expectations and reality. Although the replanting rate of oil palms is at a low level, it has improved compared to the low point in early 2020, but it started to decline in December 2021. After 2021, the use of fertilizer raw materials in Malaysia and Indonesia decreased rapidly, and considering the lagged impact of weather, the production performance in the next few months may not be as good as before [207]. - Currently, the soybean crushing profit in Argentina is relatively low, and the global new - crop sunflower oil production is lower than expected. Palm oil has cost - effectiveness, but Brazil has not decided whether to implement the B16 biodiesel policy at the beginning of 2026. Under the overall expectation of a bumper harvest in South America, the price of far - month South American soybean oil is low [207]. - Different from the downward adjustment of global sunflower seed and sunflower oil production, the global rapeseed production is gradually increasing. As Australian and Canadian rapeseed purchases are restricted, short - selling rapeseed in the domestic market may not be smooth. The impact is more likely to be indirectly transmitted to the domestic market through rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal from Dubai and Russia. However, opportunities to narrow the price spread at high levels should be noted [207]. - Before there is stronger positive news for biodiesel, the price advantage will still support the palm oil price. But if there is no speculation on the supply side and no expectation of inventory reduction, the price rebound will be limited [207]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Price Movements**: The prices of domestic three major oils and US crude oil fluctuated in 2025. There were several rounds of price drops and rebounds. Drops were mainly due to factors such as the delay in Indonesia's biodiesel policy, unclear US biodiesel policy, increased South American soybean production, higher - than - expected imports of rapeseed oil and rapeseed, and official clarifications on non - restriction of palm oil exports. Rebounds were caused by factors like floods in palm oil - producing areas, rebounds in US and Brazilian soybean premiums, insufficient near - month imports of soybeans, expected pre - Ramadan purchases in India, and rumors of Indonesia's palm oil export ban [4]. 3.2 25/26 Global Oilseeds Situation - **Production and Export**: The total global oilseed production in the 25/26 period was gradually adjusted downward, with significant decreases in soybean and sunflower seed production, but significant increases in rapeseed and cottonseed production. The total export volume changed little, with significant increases in soybean and sunflower seed exports and a decrease in rapeseed exports [5]. - **Consumption and Stock - to - Use Ratio**: Global oilseed crushing was slightly adjusted downward, with a significant increase in rapeseed crushing but decreases in soybean and sunflower seed crushing. The stock - to - use ratio of rapeseed increased significantly, while those of soybeans and sunflowers decreased slightly [12][17]. 3.3 25/26 Global Oils Situation - **Production and Export**: The total global oil production in the 25/26 period was adjusted slightly. Rapeseed oil production was increased significantly, while soybean oil and sunflower oil production were decreased significantly. Rapeseed oil exports increased significantly, palm oil exports changed little, and soybean oil and sunflower oil exports decreased significantly [19]. - **Consumption**: The total global oil consumption decreased slightly. The consumption of soybean oil and rapeseed oil increased significantly, while that of sunflower oil decreased significantly [21]. - **Stock - to - Use Ratio**: The stock - to - use ratios of different oils showed different trends [30]. 3.4 Rapeseed Situation - **International Rapeseed Price and Spread**: The price of Canadian rapeseed was weak [32]. - **Canadian Rapeseed**: In the 25/26 period, Canadian rapeseed production increased by 789,000 tons. Exports were expected to increase by nearly 400,000 tons, and the ending inventory would rise from 1.597 million tons to 2.5 million tons. The export was slow, domestic consumption was high, and the commercial inventory was close to that of the previous year [38][40][42][45]. - **EU Rapeseed**: In the EU's November agricultural crop announcement for the 24/25 period, the rapeseed yield was adjusted upward to 3.34 tons per hectare, the planting area remained unchanged, and the production was adjusted upward to 2.0206 million tons. Rapeseed imports were high, exports increased, and the monthly crushing volume decreased [51][53][55][57]. - **Other Regions**: Australian new - crop rapeseed production was increased, Ukrainian rapeseed exports decreased, and Russian rapeseed production increased [61][66][71]. 3.5 Palm Oil Situation - **Malaysia**: In October, Malaysia's palm oil production increased more than expected, with a 11.02% month - on - month increase to 2.04 million tons. The export situation was complex, with a decrease in exports to India during the festival. As of the end of November, the inventory was expected to continue to increase [92][96][102]. - **Indonesia**: In September, Indonesia's palm oil production decreased significantly, and exports decreased due to the increase in export tariffs. The inventory remained basically stable at the end of September [121][128]. 3.6 Soybean Oil Situation - **North and South America**: The export of soybean oil in North and South America slowed down. Argentina's soybean oil export slowed, and Brazil's soybean oil export also decreased [132][134][141]. 3.7 Sunflower Oil Situation - **European Sunflower Seeds**: The production of European sunflower seeds was adjusted downward [151]. - **Ukraine**: Ukraine's sunflower oil exports were at a low level, with a decrease in exports to India and an increase in exports to the EU [158]. - **Other Regions**: Russia's sunflower oil export slowed, and Argentina's sunflower oil exports to India increased. The total sunflower seed production of four countries (Argentina, Ukraine, Russia, and the EU) increased [160][163][170]. 3.8 Biodiesel Situation - **Indonesia**: The distribution of biodiesel in Indonesia was slow, and as of November 10, the biodiesel distribution volume reached 12.25 billion liters, while the annual target was 15.6 billion liters [172][173]. - **EU**: The EU's imports of Malaysian POME, UCO, and UCOME increased, and the import of UCO was at a high level. The export of UCOME to the US decreased significantly, and the import of Chinese UCO remained at a high level [174][177][179][181][183]. - **US**: The proportion of soybean oil in US biodiesel feedstock generally rebounded, but the biodiesel production was lower than that of the previous year [185][187]. - **Brazil**: The consumption of soybean oil in Brazilian biodiesel was at a high level, and the growth rate of biodiesel raw material consumption slowed down in 2025 [195][197].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall view on steel products is bullish. The futures market fluctuated and consolidated last week and then declined significantly following raw materials. Hot metal production continued to fall, the output of five finished steel products decreased month - on - month, inventories decreased to varying degrees, and overall demand declined month - on - month, with only cold - rolled products showing a slight increase. Steel mill profits have recovered, mainly due to the decline in coking coal prices on the raw material side. The profits of short - flow steel mills have recovered significantly, mainly benefiting from the decline in scrap steel prices, and their overall production is better than that of long - flow steel mills. Pay attention to the subsequent spot price game and suggest focusing on positions related to steel mill profits [3]. - The month - spread of rebar is bullish. The 1 - 5 month - spread of rebar has strengthened slightly month - on - month [3]. - The profitability of steel mills is bullish. The profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises this week is 36.36%, continuing to decline month - on - month [3]. - The view on scrap steel is neutral. According to calculations, the current loss per ton of steel produced by electric arc furnaces in East China during peak hours is 67 yuan/ton, and the profit per ton during off - peak hours is 69 yuan/ton [3]. - The view on finished steel inventories is neutral. The five finished steel products are seasonally destocking [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Production - As of December 5, 2025, the daily average pig iron output was 2.323 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 23,800 tons, approaching the level of the same period last year. The national blast furnace operating rate of 247 enterprises was 80.16%, a month - on - month slight decline; the capacity utilization rate of 85 electric arc furnaces was 53.82%, close to the level of the same period last year. The profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises was 36.36%, a month - on - month slight increase, significantly lower than the level of the same period last year [14]. - This week, the total output of the five major steel products was 828,950 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 26,760 tons. Among them, the rebar output was 189,310 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16,770 tons; the hot - rolled coil output was 314,310 tons, a month - on - month slight increase of 2,160 tons; the cold - rolled output increased slightly, higher than the level of the same period last year; the medium and heavy plate output decreased slightly, significantly higher than the historical average [25]. 3.2 Demand - In terms of demand, the total consumption of the five major steel products this week was 864,170 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 23,930 tons, slightly higher than the level of the same period last year. The weekly rebar consumption was 216,980 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10,960 tons, lower than the level of the same period last year; the hot - rolled coil consumption was 314,860 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5,360 tons, lower than the level of the same period last year [48][49]. - This week, the trading volume decreased slightly month - on - month. The trading volume in the north decreased month - on - month but was still slightly higher than the level of the same period last year. The trading volume in the south decreased slightly month - on - month, and the trading volume in East China increased slightly month - on - month but was still significantly lower than the level of the same period last year [64]. 3.3 Inventory - This week, the billet inventory of 55 billet - rolling factories was 541,600 tons, with a slight month - on - month destocking, higher than the level of the same period last year. The billet inventory in mainstream warehouses was 1.2054 million tons, with a slight month - on - month destocking, significantly higher than the level of the same period [79]. - The rebar warehouse receipts continued to decline but were still higher than the historical average. The hot - rolled coil warehouse receipts decreased slightly month - on - month, lower than the level of the same period last year [117]. 3.4 Balance Sheet The report provides a monthly balance sheet for crude steel from June 2025 to June 2026, including data on initial and final steel mill and social inventories, pig iron and crude steel production, imports, exports, total consumption, domestic production - demand differences, surpluses, year - on - year production and consumption changes, and cumulative year - on - year production and consumption changes [118].

Report Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Nickel prices are expected to oscillate. In November, the output of pure nickel dropped sharply by 28.13% month-on-month, and the decline in the previous market fully affected the supply side. Although the nickel price valuation has recovered, it has not regained the previous losses, and the medium - and long - term logic is still constrained by fundamental factors. In the fourth quarter, the rigid cost of the ore end and the uncertainty of the RKAB approval process in Indonesia form double support, limiting the further decline of nickel prices, but the real - world contradictions in downstream demand remain unresolved, and the upward driving force is still weak [3][4]. Summary by Directory Nickel Market Overview - The main contract of Shanghai nickel (2601) opened at 114,500 yuan/ton and closed at 117,080 yuan/ton last week, with a weekly increase of 2.66% [10]. - As of December 2, the spot price of electrolytic nickel increased by 1,350 yuan/ton to 119,900 yuan/ton week - on - week, a 1.14% increase [16]. Nickel - related Product Prices - As of December 1, the CIF prices of Philippine laterite nickel ore with 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% nickel content remained unchanged at 29, 57, and 78.5 US dollars/wet ton respectively compared with last week [35]. - As of November 28, the ex - works prices of Indonesian domestic trade nickel ore with Ni1.2% and Ni1.6% remained unchanged at 23 and 52.5 US dollars/wet ton respectively compared with last week [35]. - As of November 28, the average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 8 yuan/nickel point to 883 yuan/nickel point week - on - week, a 0.90% decrease [29]. - As of December 2, the battery - grade nickel sulfate price decreased by 350 yuan/ton to 27,730 yuan/ton week - on - week, while the electroplating - grade nickel sulfate price remained unchanged at 31,250 yuan/ton [29]. Supply and Demand of Nickel and Related Products Nickel Ore - As of November 28, the nickel ore port inventory decreased by 30,000 tons to 9.51 million wet tons week - on - week, a 0.31% decrease [38]. - In October 2025, the national nickel ore import volume was 4.6828 million tons, a 23.41% decrease month - on - month and a 10.97% increase year - on - year. The import volume from the Philippines was 4.3468 million tons, a 25.28% decrease month - on - month [38]. Intermediate Products - As of December 1, the MHP FOB price increased by 148 US dollars/ton to 12,979 US dollars/ton week - on - week, a 1.15% increase; the high - grade nickel matte FOB price increased by 151 US dollars/ton to 13,259 US dollars/ton week - on - week, a 1.15% increase [44]. - In November 2025, the Indonesian MHP output decreased by 0.24 million tons to 3.86 million nickel tons month - on - month, a 5.85% decrease; the high - grade nickel matte output increased by 0.7 million tons to 2.92 million tons month - on - month, a 31.53% increase [44]. Refined Nickel - In November 2025, China's electrolytic nickel monthly output decreased by 10,100 tons to 25,800 tons month - on - month, a 28.13% decrease and a 16.28% decrease year - on - year [52]. - In October 2025, China's refined nickel monthly export volume was 13,700 tons, a 3.15% decrease month - on - month and a 0.76% decrease year - on - year; the monthly import volume was 9,700 tons, a 65.66% decrease month - on - month and a 5.67% decrease year - on - year [52]. - As of December 1, the SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 17,000 tons to 32,700 tons week - on - week, a 5.13% decrease; the LME nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 408 tons to 253,100 tons week - on - week, a 0.16% decrease [53]. Nickel Sulfate - In November 2025, China's nickel sulfate monthly output increased by 438 tons to 36,700 nickel tons month - on - month, a 1.21% increase [66]. - In October 2025, China's nickel sulfate monthly import volume was 22,100 tons, a 25.32% decrease month - on - month and a 114.15% increase year - on - year; the monthly export volume was 1,058.24 tons, a 31.23% increase month - on - month and a 53.20% decrease year - on - year [66]. Nickel Iron - In November 2025, the national nickel pig iron output (in metal) decreased by 900 tons to 27,200 tons month - on - month, a 3.23% decrease [83]. - In November 2025, the Indonesian nickel pig iron output decreased by 300 tons to 148,800 nickel tons month - on - month, basically unchanged [83]. - As of October 2025, China's nickel iron monthly import volume was 905,100 tons (equivalent to 111,300 tons in metal), a 18.40% decrease month - on - month and a 30.31% increase year - on - year [83]. Stainless Steel - In November 2025, China's stainless steel crude steel output decreased by 54,600 tons to 3.4592 million tons month - on - month, a 1.55% decrease and a 4.24% increase year - on - year [95]. - It is expected that the crude steel production in December will be 3.2857 million tons, a 5.02% decrease month - on - month and a 4.55% decrease year - on - year [95]. - As of November 28, the stainless steel social inventory increased by 14,400 tons to 1.0861 million tons week - on - week, a 1.34% increase [98]. - As of December 2, the production cost of Chinese 304 cold - rolled stainless steel increased by 21 yuan/ton to 12,488 yuan/ton week - on - week, a 0.17% increase [102].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PTA: Core view - neutral; Month - spread - neutral; Spot - cautiously bullish; Cost - neutral; Device change - cautiously bullish; Downstream demand - neutral; Supply - demand balance - cautiously bullish; Processing profit - neutral [5] - PX: Core view - neutral; Month - spread - neutral; Spot - neutral; Device change - cautiously bearish; Import - neutral; Downstream demand - neutral; Supply - demand balance - neutral; Processing profit - cautiously bearish [6] - Ethylene glycol: Core view - neutral; Month - spread - neutral; Spot - neutral; Device change - neutral; Import - cautiously bearish; Downstream demand - neutral; Supply - demand balance - cautiously bearish [7] 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: Before the end of the year, major suppliers' maintenance is high. Demand seasonally weakens but polyester provides support. The balance is tight from November to December. Short - term supply and demand are not bad, basis stabilizes. Pay attention to the progress of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine in the short term. Buy low after a pullback and widen the processing fee on dips [5][68] - PX: As PTA maintenance increases, the near - term balance eases slightly. Some disproportionation units have reduced their loads recently. The overall pattern and outlook are not bad. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [6][96] - Ethylene glycol: There is an increase in maintenance on the supply side, port inventory build - up is realized. The balance still faces inventory build - up from November to December. The current valuation is not high, and it is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term [7][142] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Terminal Demand - Terminal demand has slightly declined from its peak. The operating rates of texturing, weaving, and dyeing have reached 87%, 73%, and 77% respectively. Weekly sales were good, with a surge on Thursday. Downstream enterprises mainly consumed raw material inventories, with inventory days ranging from 5 - 10 days. Local orders have slightly weakened [9] Polyester Situation - As of November 21st, the polyester load was around 91.3%, cash flow was compressed, and the average polyester inventory was around 14.4 days. Polyester inventory pressure is not large, cash flow is average. With low inventory, the polyester operating rate remains high, and it is expected to maintain at 91 - 90% from November to December [20][48] - Polyester raw materials are stable, polyester profits have stabilized, and overall profitability is average. Staple fiber and chips have weakened [22] - As of November 21st, the inventories of POY, DTY, FDY, and staple fiber were 14, 25.8, 14.3, and 8.7 days respectively. Currently, polyester inventory pressure is not large [35] PTA Situation - PTA device maintenance is carried out as planned. Some devices are in maintenance, and some have been restarted. The planned maintenance in November and December is not low [51][52] - As of November 21st, the PTA social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) increased steadily to 2230000 tons, a decrease of 32800 tons. It is expected that the inventory pressure will not be large before the end of the year [55] - According to the PTA balance sheet, the maintenance will continue to increase at the end of the year. The balance from November to December will turn to tight and destocking, and the basis will strengthen. In the short term, the cost is expected to be affected by the peace talks between Russia and Ukraine [66][68] PX Situation - US refinery operations have rebounded, and gasoline inventories have rebounded from the bottom. With the expectation of Russia - Ukraine easing, gasoline cracking has declined from its high, and the octane number has stabilized. The economic viability of gasoline blending has declined marginally. Asian disproportionation profits are average, some units are under maintenance, and the short - process of MX - PX is okay [80][83] - The US - Asia arbitrage spread has slightly narrowed. The US - Asia spread of toluene is $225, and that of xylene is $210. Xylene tariffs have been exempted. North American demand for aromatics has declined in 2025, and South Korea's exports of aromatics to the US have remained low since April [88] - The domestic PX load is at a high level of 89.5%, and the Asian load is 79.7%. Recently, the maintenance of some disproportionation units has increased. In November, the balance eases, and it will maintain a tight balance from December to February. The outlook for PX is not bad, and it will fluctuate in the short term [90][96] Ethylene Glycol Situation - As of November 21st, the overall ethylene glycol load has slightly declined from its high. The total load is 70.8%, and the coal - based load is 66%. The coal - chemical load has decreased significantly in the short term [109] - There is an increase in ethylene glycol device maintenance, and the overall domestic load has decreased. Overseas, some units have restarted, some are under maintenance, and some have plans to stop or reduce production. The import volume from November to December is estimated to be 650000 tons and 600000 tons respectively [114][129] - As of November 24th, the ethylene glycol port inventory in the main ports of East China is about 732000 tons, remaining stable compared to last week. The arrival volume is expected to be stable in the later period, and the downstream inventory has slightly increased [137] - According to the ethylene glycol balance sheet, although there is an increase in maintenance, there is still seasonal inventory build - up pressure from November to December [139]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Manganese silicon: Core view - neutral; Month - spread - neutral; Spot - neutral; Steel production - weak; Inventory - weak; Cost - profit - strong [3] - Ferrosilicon: Core view - strong; Month - spread - strong; Spot - neutral; Steel & magnesium production - neutral; Inventory - weak; Cost - profit - strong [4] 2. Core Views - Manganese silicon: This week, the futures market fluctuated and then accelerated its decline. The weekly production of silicon - manganese decreased slightly, while demand picked up slightly. Factory spot offers were scarce. The price of 6517 in the northern and southern markets was 5500 - 5550 yuan/ton, and a large steel mill in Hebei tendered at 5820 yuan/ton. The manganese ore market was stable, with average port inquiries and some low - price inquiries. There was no obvious inventory accumulation of mainstream manganese ore, and no low - price sales, but overall trading was poor, and the trading center of some varieties moved down slightly. The market was concerned about the subsequent coke spot price game, and alloy profit was poor [3]. - Ferrosilicon: This week, the futures market fluctuated and declined. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon natural lumps in the main production areas was 5150 - 5200 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade ferrosilicon was 5650 - 5700 yuan/ton. Hebei Iron and Steel Group set the price at 5680 yuan/ton, a slight increase. Ferrosilicon production decreased, steel mill demand picked up slightly, and magnesium metal production continued to increase slightly. In terms of cost - profit, the current on - the - spot profitability in the main production areas was poor, the price of semi - coke was stable, and there was little room for a significant decline in the short term. The subsequent settlement of trading electricity prices could be monitored [4]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Manganese Silicon Manganese Ore Inventory - Total port inventory of manganese ore was 426.3 tons, with a slight de - stocking compared to the previous period. Tianjin Port's inventory decreased slightly to 366 tons, significantly lower than the same period last year, while Qinzhou Port's inventory increased to 59.8 tons, at a historically low level in recent years [14]. - In Tianjin Port, the inventory of South African ore was 252.1 tons, with a slight de - stocking; Gabonese ore was 24 tons, also with a slight de - stocking and far lower than the same period last year; Australian ore inventory was 37.5 tons, with a slight de - stocking and slightly lower than the same period last year [18]. Manganese Ore Price - The price of Gabonese lumps at Tianjin Port was 40.5 yuan/ton - degree, Australian lumps were 39.7 yuan/ton - degree, and South African semi - carbonate was 34.3 yuan/ton - degree. The supply - demand game in the manganese ore market intensified, quotes remained firm, and trading adjusted narrowly [21]. Production - As of November 21, the weekly production of silicon - manganese decreased to 19.69 tons. The daily average production in Inner Mongolia decreased to 13920 tons/day, in Ningxia to 6375 tons/day, in Yunnan to 1320 tons/day, in Guizhou it remained at 2000 tons/day, and in Guangxi it remained at 1535 tons/day [25]. Demand - As of November 21, the weekly demand of Mysteel sample enterprises was 12.14 tons. The weekly production of the five major steel products decreased to 849.91 tons compared to the previous period. The proportion of rebar in the five major steel products in Mysteel sample data decreased slightly, lower than the historical average [34]. Price - The price in the Inner Mongolia market was around 5520 yuan/ton, and in Tianjin it was 5650 yuan/ton. Hebei Iron and Steel Group tendered at 5820 yuan/ton [44]. Chemical Coke Price - The price of chemical coke was stable. The ex - factory prices of 25 - 40mm chemical coke in Yinchuan, Ordos, and Alxa were 1290, 1230, and 1240 yuan/ton respectively. The coke futures market declined significantly, and the market was concerned about the subsequent spot price game and the follow - up situation of chemical coke [47]. Production Profit - The immediate profit of silicon - manganese was low, and the north - south differentiation intensified [51]. Month - spread - As of November 20, the 1 - 5 month - spread of manganese silicon was - 66 yuan/ton, with continuous low - level fluctuations [55]. Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The futures market fluctuated and consolidated, and the basis did not change significantly. As of November 20, the total of manganese silicon warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 10.66 tons. Attention should be paid to the subsequent recovery [59]. Ferrosilicon Production - As of November 21, on the supply side, the weekly production was 10.83 tons, a slight decrease compared to the previous period. The daily average production in Inner Mongolia was 5500 tons, in Qinghai was 1980 tons, in Ningxia was 3730 tons, and in Shaanxi was 2630 tons [70]. Demand - Steel mill demand for ferrosilicon picked up slightly. The total consumption of ferrosilicon by Mysteel sample steel mills was 1.95 tons, lower than the same period last year [75]. - The export price of magnesium metal at Tianjin Port was 2325 US dollars/ton, and the market price was 16050 yuan/ton, with an overall slight increase. The weekly production of magnesium metal was 19005 tons, continuing to increase slightly. The magnesium ingot spot market was stable, with a growing wait - and - see atmosphere. There were both fear - of - high - price and fear - of - falling emotions among buyers. Some traders had locked in December demand in advance, so trading slowed down significantly. Currently, magnesium plant quotes remained unchanged, and they were reluctant to offer further discounts [85]. Export - As of November 20, the overseas FOB price of 75 - grade ferrosilicon was 1080 US dollars/ton, and that of 72 - grade ferrosilicon was 1030 US dollars/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous period. In October, the import volume of ferrosilicon increased slightly compared to the previous period, while the export volume decreased significantly, lower than the same period last year [95]. Raw Material - As of November 21, the quotes of mainstream semi - coke small materials remained stable. The current prices were 820 yuan/ton in Shaanxi, 920 yuan/ton in Ningxia, and 810 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia. The price of oxidized iron scale was 720 yuan/ton [102]. Production Profit - As of November 20, the point - to - point profit of ferrosilicon was in the red, with significant losses in Shaanxi and Qinghai. The production profits in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shaanxi, and Qinghai were - 241, - 472, - 596, and - 580 yuan/ton respectively [112]. Month - spread - As of November 20, the 1 - 5 month - spread of ferrosilicon was 10 yuan/ton, strengthening compared to the previous period [115]. Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The futures market fluctuated and consolidated, and the ferrosilicon basis fluctuated slightly. As of November 20, the basis was - 210 yuan/ton. As of November 20, the total of ferrosilicon warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 4.47 tons. Attention should be paid to the recovery of warehouse receipts [120]. Balance Sheet Manganese Silicon - From June 2025 to May 2026, the total supply, production, and import, total demand, steel consumption, export, net export, surplus, cumulative year - on - year production growth, and cumulative year - on - year consumption growth are presented in the balance sheet [122]. Ferrosilicon - From June 2025 to May 2026, the total supply, production, import, total demand, domestic consumption, including consumption by crude steel and magnesium metal, export, net export, surplus, cumulative year - on - year production growth, and cumulative year - on - year consumption growth are presented in the balance sheet [123].