Group 1: Report's Core View - The current market is repeating the logic from March to May: oversupply drives down spot prices, leading to enterprise production cuts, spot shortages, and price increases that will drive a complete reversal in the market. However, the production cut-off line is uncertain. Currently, the cost is lower than in the first half of the year, and factories are still profitable, so there are no production cuts. Alumina production capacity will continue to drive output growth, and the oversupply will continue to expand [4]. Group 2: Domestic Alumina Balance Sheet - **Total Supply**: Ranges from 676.94 to 765.21 million tons from January to August 2025, with fluctuations [4]. - **Total Production**: Varies from 693.50 to 773.82 million tons during the same period, showing an overall upward trend [4]. - **Imports**: Fluctuate between 1.07 and 12.59 million tons, with an expected increase in the next two months but still maintaining a net export status [4][12]. - **Exports**: Range from 17.10 to 29.67 million tons, with relatively stable export volumes [4]. - **Total Consumption**: Ranges from 642.87 to 722.77 million tons, showing a steady growth trend [4]. - **Excess Quantity**: Fluctuates from -11.02 to 51.52 million tons, indicating periods of oversupply and shortage [4]. - **Year-on-Year Production Growth**: Ranges from -0.10% to 12.85%, with significant growth in some months [4]. - **Year-on-Year Consumption Growth**: Ranges from 0.19% to 3.80%, showing relatively stable consumption growth [4]. Group 3: Spot Market - **Domestic Spot Prices**: Continue to decline. As of Monday this week, the average prices in Shanxi, Henan, Shandong, and Guizhou are 2907, 2920, 2858, and 3133 yuan/ton respectively, with varying degrees of decline [12]. - **Overseas Spot Prices**: Slightly increased during the National Day holiday and then declined in sync with the domestic market. As of Monday this week, the FOB price in Western Australia is 323 US dollars/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 2 US dollars/ton [12]. - **Import Profit and Loss**: As of last Friday, the import profit and loss of alumina is 76.35 yuan/ton, remaining profitable since early September [12]. Group 4: Futures Market - **Futures Price Trends**: The price of the main alumina futures contract first rose and then fell this week. It opened at 2898 yuan/ton last Monday and closed at 2820 yuan/ton this Monday, with a week-on-week decrease of 2.79% [15]. - **Futures Market Structure**: The current C structure of the futures market is stable [15]. Group 5: Cost - **Imported Bauxite Prices**: The average CIF price of imported Guinea bauxite is 73 US dollars/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.5 US dollars/ton. The average CIF price of imported Australian bauxite is 70 US dollars/ton, remaining unchanged [20]. - **Regional Costs**: The fully taxed costs in various regions are estimated to be around 2700 - 3000 yuan/ton, lower than in the first half of the year [20]. Group 6: Supply Side - **Weekly Production**: As of last Friday, the weekly production of alumina is 186.3 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 0.3 million tons or 0.16% [30]. - **Operating Capacity**: As of last Friday, the operating capacity of alumina reaches 9855 million tons, remaining unchanged from the previous week and hitting a record high [30]. - **New Investment Projects**: There are no new alumina investment projects this year [30]. Group 7: Inventory - **Total Inventory**: As of last Friday, the total alumina inventory (including factory, in-transit, raw material, and port inventories) is 457.6 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 3.9 million tons [36]. - **Inventory Changes**: The factory inventories of alumina and raw material inventories of electrolytic aluminum plants decreased by about 1 million tons during the National Day holiday due to inventory adjustments [36].

我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 研究助理：尹艺瑾 从业资格证号：F03125275 联系方式：13752670838 审核：李文涛 交易咨询证号：Z0015640 观点小结 | 钢材 | 定性 | 解析 | | --- | --- | --- | | 核心观点 | 中性 | 上周盘面震荡下行。铁水小幅回落，仍显著高于历史同期水平，上周正值国庆假期，五品种成材总产量 环比下降，整体累库明显，需求环比大幅下降，螺纹产量回落，小幅累库，表观需求大幅回落，热卷产 量小幅下降，环比累库，表需下降明显。长流程钢厂利润持续收窄，部分钢厂有所亏损，短流程钢厂谷 | | | | 电利润亏损，焦炭一轮提涨落地。建议关注品种价差机会。 | | 月差 | 中性 | 螺纹月差结构为contango，持续呈反套趋势，市场反馈后期螺纹仓单压力较大，需关注交割情况。 | | 钢厂利润 | 中性 | 本周247家钢铁企业盈利率为56.28%，环比继续小幅回落。 | | 废钢 | 中性 | 根据测算，华东电炉厂当前平电生产吨钢亏损211元/吨，谷电吨钢亏损81元/吨。 | | 成材库存 | 中性 | 五品种成材显著累库，整体库存超过去年同 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term: RU, NR Neutral with a Bullish Bias [4] - Medium - to - long - term: RU, NR Bearish [4] - Domestic Demand: Neutral [4] - Foreign Supply: Neutral with a Bearish Bias [4] - Social Inventory: Neutral with a Bearish Bias [4] Core Views of the Report - Short - term: Temporary disruptions in rubber tapping do not change the production increase expectation. Supply will return to normal when the weather improves, while demand lacks a core driver, showing a short - term bullish and long - term bearish trend. RU supply is tighter, and light - colored rubber inventory reduction is better than dark - colored rubber, so RU is stronger than NR [4]. - Medium - to - long - term: Tire demand is under pressure. All - steel tires may face a phased drag in the fourth quarter, and semi - steel tires are likely to be weak due to anti - dumping and demand overdraft [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs China's Situation - **Production**: In 2025, from January to July, China's natural rubber production totaled 39.51 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 9.42%. ANRPC expects China's annual production in 2025 to increase by 6% year - on - year, reaching 932,800 tons. The third - quarter typhoon affected Hainan more significantly than Yunnan. With better phenological conditions and new latex production capacity, the output of whole latex and concentrated latex is expected to increase year - on - year [17][24]. - **Import**: From January to July 2025, China's natural rubber imports (HS: 4001) totaled 1.667 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 35.54%. Tax - free imports from some least - developed countries have led to high inventory and slow de - stocking in Yunnan [29][33]. - **Inventory**: De - stocking is slow. If there is no significant de - stocking by the end of September, there may be a risk of re - stocking [35][44]. - **Downstream Demand** - **Gloves and Foam Products**: In the third quarter of 2025, glove factory orders improved in September but were still far from last year's level. Foam factories' production and orders seasonally recovered in the "Golden September" [48][49]. - **Tires** - **Semi - steel Tires**: From January to July 2025, the cumulative production was 456 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 4.36%. Exports were 1.94 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.59%. Exports to the EU were 533,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.03%. However, over - capacity, inventory accumulation, and anti - dumping measures may lead to weak demand in the fourth quarter [56]. - **All - steel Tires**: From January to August 2025, the cumulative production was 97.81 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. From January to July, exports were 2.79 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.52%. The fourth - quarter demand may be affected by reduced construction starts in the north and the quarterly payment period in the south [64][65]. - **Automobiles**: From January to August 2025, passenger car production and sales increased by 13.6% and 13.8% year - on - year respectively. Policies such as trade - in and exemption of vehicle purchase tax for new energy vehicles before December 31, 2025, support the tire supporting market, but the replacement market may be under pressure [60]. Thailand's Situation - **Production**: From January to July 2025, the cumulative production was 2.3062 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.83%. The opening of the tapping season was postponed to June. In the fourth quarter, normal phenological conditions are expected to yield 1.6058 million tons. In case of extreme climate, the output will be between 1.5242 - 1.5854 million tons. ANRPC expects Thailand's annual production in 2025 to increase by 1.2% year - on - year, reaching 4.8466 million tons [77][83]. - **Export and Policy**: There was a phenomenon of rush - exporting tires in Southeast Asia during the 90 - day buffer period given by the US. Thailand plans to export rubber to China via the Mekong River with zero import tax, starting with 400 tons of cup lump rubber in September and increasing to 2400 tons in October [86][90]. Indonesia's Situation - **Production**: In 2025, most areas had normal phenological conditions, but South Sumatra had much higher precipitation in the third quarter. From January to July 2025, the cumulative production was 1.3736 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.56%. Limited by old tree age, production has been declining in recent years. ANRPC expects Indonesia's annual production in 2025 to decrease by 9.8% year - on - year, reaching 2.0404 million tons [99][102]. Vietnam's Situation - **Production**: From January to July 2025, the production was 511,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 8.89%. The output has not met expectations since the start of tapping this year, and a decline is expected in the fourth quarter. ANRPC expects Vietnam's annual production in 2025 to decrease by 1.3% year - on - year, reaching 1.2797 million tons [117]. Cote d'Ivoire's Situation - **Production**: The single - yield level has room for improvement. The output in 2024 was about 1.662 million tons. Future production is expected to increase by 5% - 10% annually, with an estimated output of 1.775 - 1.8 million tons in 2025, or 1.78 - 2.03 million tons based on the growth rate [124]. - **Policy and Export**: Zero - tariff policies for African countries are expected to be implemented. After the policy is implemented, exports to China may increase from the current 315,300 tons per year to 324,900 - 448,200 tons per year [127].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Q3's market was a battle between weak reality and expectations of tariff cuts. Despite China halting purchases of US soybeans, the US soybean futures had some support due to strong domestic demand and optimistic expectations for Sino-US trade negotiations [3]. - It is advisable to wait for the negative factors to subside and then consider going long, while keeping an eye on the progress of South American crops and Sino-US trade negotiations [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 25年Q3行情回顾 - In July, due to cost support and concerns about long - term supply, the price once soared. Later in the month, it dropped due to Sino - US consultations and news of Argentine soybean meal imports. In August, USDA unexpectedly reduced the US soybean planting area, which provided bullish support, but strong harvest expectations and weak exports restricted the upward space. In September, the USDA report was bearish, but the US soybean futures had support from strong domestic demand and optimistic expectations for Sino - US negotiations [3][6]. 供给"微"增 - In the 25/26 season, global oilseed production is expected to be 690 million tons (up 1.39% year - on - year), with soybean production at 425 million tons (up 0.39% year - on - year), rapeseed at 90.96 million tons (up 6.1% year - on - year), and sunflower seeds at 55.1 million tons (up 5.05% year - on - year). The soybean stock - to - consumption ratio is expected to drop to 20.27% [26]. - In the September report, the US soybean planting area in the 25/26 season was increased to 81.1 million acres, the yield per unit was decreased to 53.5 bushels per acre, but it was higher than expected. The crush was increased to 2.555 billion bushels, and exports were decreased to 1.685 billion bushels, with ending stocks increased to 300 million bushels [32]. 成本支撑 - In Q3, sea freight was relatively stable. As of September 17, the sea freight from Brazil, Argentina, US Gulf, and US West to China was $36/ton, $43/ton, $56/ton, and $29/ton respectively [60]. - Brazilian farmers' and port prices rose, and farmers' profits recovered significantly. In Q3, farmers' received prices continued to rise, and domestic Brazilian growers' profits were significantly better than traders' [63][66]. 南北美大豆出口分化 - In August, Brazil exported about 7.28 million tons of soybeans, and the export plan for September was 7.06 million tons. Since May, China has basically stopped buying US soybeans. In the 24/25 season, the cumulative US soybean exports were 52.11 million tons [69][76]. 天气展望 - The current Niño - 3.4 index is - 0.2°C, and the atmospheric model shows a neutral state. Although the possibility of La Niña increases in the fourth quarter, the probability is still lower than that of a neutral state. La Niña usually affects the winter in the Northern Hemisphere and the summer in the Southern Hemisphere, mainly causing drought in southern Brazil and Argentina [95]. 饲料产量环同比增加,终端养殖产能过剩 - In July 2025, the national industrial feed production was 28.31 million tons (up 2.3% month - on - month and 5.5% year - on - year). As of August 2025, the laying hen inventory was 1.317 billion, and in January 2025, the white - feather broiler grandparent stock was 2.1457 million sets, at a relatively high level compared to the same period in previous years [99][103]. - In July 2025, the number of fertile sows was 40.42 million, exceeding the normal level set by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs by about 3.6%. The industry's over - capacity situation has not been fundamentally reversed, and it still faces severe profit - loss pressure [111]. 平衡表推演 - The report provides a detailed balance sheet of soybean meal from January 2025 to March 2026, including data on beginning inventory, production, imports, total supply, exports, demand, total demand, ending inventory, inventory changes, stock - to - consumption ratio, and surplus [120].

Group 1: Report Core View - The global oil and fat market shows complex supply - demand dynamics in the 25/26 period. Despite an increase in global oil and fat production, the recovery of export and biodiesel demand since the second half of this year, along with palm oil supply issues, supports price increases. The supply of Malaysia and Indonesia is differentiated, with Malaysia's production possibly peaking in August while Indonesia's production recovers and inventory builds up. Global new - crop sunflower oil prices are not as weak as expected due to harvest delays and slow pressing growth. South American soybean oil has passed its export peak and has poor pressing profits. The rapeseed oil market is affected by policies, especially China - Canada relations. The trend - down of oil and fat prices may occur only if the palm oil production - reduction season in Malaysia and Indonesia is not obvious and the global biodiesel development slows down [195]. Group 2: Global Oilseeds and Oils Overview Production - Rapeseed production has been continuously adjusted upwards, while sunflower seed production has been continuously adjusted downwards. In the 25/26 period, the production of some oilseeds is expected to change, with rapeseed showing an upward trend and sunflower seed a downward one [8]. - The production of rapeseed oil and palm oil has been continuously adjusted upwards, while sunflower oil production has been continuously adjusted downwards [29]. Export - Rapeseed export has been continuously adjusted upwards, sunflower seed export has been adjusted downwards multiple times, and soybean export has been recently adjusted upwards [15]. - The export of rapeseed oil, sunflower oil, and soybean oil has been continuously adjusted downwards, while palm oil export has been continuously adjusted upwards [35]. Pressing - Rapeseed pressing has been continuously adjusted upwards, while soybean and sunflower seed pressing have been continuously adjusted downwards [21]. Inventory - Soybean and sunflower seed inventories are decreasing, while rapeseed inventory is increasing [23]. - The global oil and fat inventory - to - consumption ratio is slightly decreasing in the 25/26 period [38]. Group 3: Palm Oil Malaysia - Rainfall in Peninsular Malaysia has been relatively good this year. From May, Malaysia's palm oil production has been below the average level for four consecutive months. In August, the production decreased by 2.05% year - on - year. The export in August increased by 1.19% month - on - month to 1.32 million tons, and the cumulative export from January to August decreased by 10.80% year - on - year. The apparent consumption in August reached 490,000 tons, a record high. The inventory increased to 2.2 million tons. In September, there is a high possibility of production reduction, and the inventory build - up at the end of September may be limited [42][45][48][52]. Indonesia - In June, Indonesia's palm oil production increased by 15.99% month - on - month to 5.289 million tons, and the cumulative production from January to June was 27.89 million tons, 1.71 million tons more than the same period in 2024. The export in June increased by 35.56% month - on - month to 3.606 million tons. From July, production recovered again, and inventory began to build up. In August, production continued to recover, especially in the second half of August. Usually, the average production increase in September is the largest, but in 2025, due to precipitation and other factors, the actual increase may not reach the historical average of 5.43%. The inventory will continue to build up at the end of September, but the recovery will not be fast [60][68]. Group 4: Rapeseed EU - In August, the EU raised rapeseed production by 300,000 tons to 18.84 million tons, with the planting area remaining at 5.81 million hectares and the yield per hectare increasing to 3.24 tons, a 2.15 - million - ton increase compared to the previous crop [75]. Canada - In August, Canada officially raised the 24/25 rapeseed production from 19.19 million tons to 20.1 million tons, with the planting area remaining at 8.68 million hectares and the yield per hectare increasing from 2.08 tons to 2.35 tons. Exports were raised from 6 million tons to 7 million tons, domestic consumption from 11.5 million tons to 12.18 million tons, and the ending inventory was 2.2 million tons, slightly higher than the previous crop's 1.18 million tons [77]. Australia - Australia's 25/26 rapeseed production is 5.71 million tons, lower than the previous crop's 6.1 million tons, with both the planting area and yield per hectare decreasing. The harvest area is 3.379 million hectares, and the yield per hectare is 1.7 tons. Exports are 4.14 million tons, slightly higher than the previous crop's 4.1 million tons. The rapeseed is currently in the growing season and will enter the harvesting period in October [83]. Russia and Ukraine - Russia's 2025 total rapeseed production is expected to reach 5 million tons, higher than last year's 4.66 million tons. Ukraine's rapeseed production is estimated to be 3.5 million tons due to a decrease in the planting area and unfavorable weather during the growing season [87]. Group 5: Soybean Oil Brazil - In August, Brazil's soybean oil export was 160,000 tons, higher than July's 138,000 tons but lower than June's 167,000 tons. The cumulative export from January to August was 1.11 million tons, higher than the same period in 2024 [89]. Argentina - In August, Argentina's soybean oil export was 545,000 tons, lower than July's 569,000 tons. The cumulative export from January to July was 4.14 million tons, higher than the same period in 2024. The export growth rate of both Brazil and Argentina's soybean oil is slowing down [92]. USA - In July, the US exported 28,500 tons of soybean oil. The inventory and consumption data also show certain trends, but specific details are presented in the relevant charts [101]. Group 6: India - As of September 16, the price differences between different oils in India have changed. The import, inventory, and consumption of various oils also show different trends. For example, the import of palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil has specific data changes over time, and the consumption of these oils also varies monthly [111][115][126]. Group 7: Biodiesel Indonesia - In the first half of 2025, Indonesia distributed 7.96 billion liters of biodiesel, completing 51% of the 2025 target of 15.6 billion liters, which supports the demand for palm oil [132]. EU - The EU's RME processing profit is average, and the import and export of biodiesel are decreasing. The import of UCO from China is at a high level, and the import of raw materials from Malaysia and Indonesia also shows certain trends [133][135][137]. USA - In June, the proportion of soybean oil in biodiesel feedstock reached 36%, rising for several consecutive months. The proportion of animal fat and waste oils remained high, and the proportion of Canadian rapeseed oil decreased to 8%. The import of various raw materials also shows specific data changes [144][146]. Brazil - On June 25, Brazil officially approved increasing the biodiesel blending ratio in diesel from 14% to 15% (B15) starting from August 1, and plans to reach 16% (B16) in March 2026 and 17% (B17) in March 2027, with a final target of 25% (B25) [162]. Group 8: Domestic Market Supply - The domestic soybean and rapeseed crushing volumes, as well as the import volumes of soybeans, rapeseed, and palm oil, show specific data changes over time. The spot price differences between different oils are affected by factors such as taxes and import volumes [167][169][171][182]. Inventory - The inventory of domestic edible palm oil, sunflower oil, and other oils, as well as the total inventory of the four major oils, show certain trends over time [184]. Transaction - The downstream purchases more soybean oil, especially the forward basis. The spot transaction of palm oil remains at a low level, and the domestic rapeseed oil transaction slows down after the sellable quantity of oil mills decreases [191]. Balance Sheet - The monthly balance sheet of domestic oils shows the changes in inventory, production, import, demand, and other aspects over time [194].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Static calculations suggest that China's iron ore imports in 2025 may first decrease and then increase, with a year - on - year reduction of 8.08 million tons (-0.5%) to 1.228 billion tons. The new production capacity of mines in Australia and Brazil is expanding more slowly than expected, and events such as abnormal weather significantly affect shipments. Shipments are expected to improve in the fourth quarter. The total supply will decrease by 7.95 million tons (-0.51%) to 1.525 billion tons. [5][102] - In terms of demand, in 2025, the decline in the real estate sector in China will slow down, infrastructure investment will show positive year - on - year growth, and the manufacturing industry will continue to improve. The annual iron ore demand is estimated to be 1.496 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 55.52 million tons (+3.85%). Overseas, the pig iron production in major iron ore - importing countries is expected to decline slightly, while India's steel demand will continue to be strong. [5][102] - As of early September 2025, the inventory at 45 ports was 138 million tons. Although the mine production capacity is slowly expanding in 2025, unexpected events such as abnormal weather have a large impact on shipments. The demand growth is resilient, and hot metal production shows the characteristic of "no off - season". Static calculations indicate that the iron ore supply - demand situation is moving towards a looser state, and there is a high possibility of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter, but short - term supply - demand tightness may still occur. [5][102] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Supply - Global Shipment: From January to August 2025, the global daily average shipment was 4.28 million tons/day, a 0.5% decrease compared to 4.3 million tons/day in the same period of the previous year. The shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased significantly in the first quarter due to weather effects and then recovered to the previous year's level. The shipments from non - mainstream regions have been consistently low in recent years. [10] - Australia: From January to August 2025, Australia's global average daily shipment was 2.476 million tons/day, a 0.69% increase compared to the same period in 2024. The average daily shipment to China was 2.082 million tons/day, a 1.86% increase. The main production capacity increments in Australia in 2025 come from the Western Range (officially put into production on June 6, 2025) and the Onslow project (the capacity launch may be delayed until September due to road upgrades). If the weather remains normal, the iron ore shipments in the fourth quarter may maintain a certain increment. [13] - Major Australian Companies: - Rio Tinto: From January to August 2025, the average daily shipment was 804,000 tons/day, a 2.9% decrease compared to the same period in 2024. The Western Range project, which was fully put into production on June 6, 2025, is the main source of production capacity increment, but due to weather effects, the annual shipment target is affected. [17] - BHP: From January to August 2025, the average daily shipment was 791,000 tons/day, a 1.28% increase compared to the same period in 2024. In the 2025 fiscal year (July 2024 - June 2025), BHP's 100% equity production reached 29 million tons, a record high. The South Flank mine may be the main source of increment, with a stable annual production capacity of 80 million tons in the 2025 fiscal year. It is expected that BHP will achieve a high - level production in 2025, and there will be no new projects put into production in the fourth quarter. [22] - FMG: From January to August 2025, the average daily shipment was 517,000 tons/day, a 4.87% increase compared to the same period in 2024. In the 2025 fiscal year, the target range was broadened to 190 - 202 million tons. The Iron Bridge project was originally scheduled to reach full production in September 2025 but has been postponed to the 2028 fiscal year. [27] - Brazil: From January to August 2025, Brazil's average daily shipment was 1.0391 million tons/day, a 2.2% increase compared to the same period in the previous year. Vale's average daily shipment was 951,600 tons/day, a 1.02% decrease compared to the same period in the previous year. In the first half of 2025, Vale's total production was 151 million tons, a 0.3% year - on - year decrease. The production in 2025 is expected to be close to the lower limit of the target (about 325 million tons) mainly due to the licensing issues in the Serra Norte mining area restricting the increment. The Capanema project is expected to be put into production in the first half of 2025, adding 15 million tons of production capacity. The S11D +20 mining area is expected to release production capacity in 2026. [31] - Non - mainstream Regions: In 2025, the iron ore shipments from India decreased significantly, while Canada increased its exports due to cost reduction through new technologies, and South Africa's export increment was mainly due to the optimization of railway transportation capacity. From January to August 2025, Canada's average daily shipment was 164,500 tons/day, a 5.85% year - on - year increase, and South Africa's average daily shipment was 152,300 tons, a 3.8% year - on - year increase. [36][41] - China's Domestic Production: In the first seven months of 2025, China's cumulative iron ore production decreased by 3.28% year - on - year. In the fourth quarter, production is expected to recover, and the domestic iron concentrate powder production in 2025 is expected to increase by 0.05% year - on - year to 297 million tons. Some new production capacities (such as the first - phase project of Liaoning Sishanling Iron Mine and Hebei Macheng Iron Mine) have been postponed, and safety and environmental inspections in Northeast and North China have led to the phased shutdown of small and medium - sized mines. [5][51] Demand - Domestic: In 2025, the decline in the real estate sector will slow down, infrastructure investment will show positive year - on - year growth, and the manufacturing industry will continue to improve. The annual iron ore demand is estimated to be 1.496 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 55.52 million tons (+3.85%). From January to July 2025, the estimated pig iron production was 617 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.32%. The estimated pig iron production in 2025 is 920 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.65%. [5][73] - Overseas: From January to July 2025, overseas pig iron production was 234 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.31%. Among the main overseas regions, India's pig iron production continued to grow at a high rate of 7.05%, while the pig iron production in other major steel - producing countries mainly declined. [56] Inventory - Port Inventory: In the first half of 2025, due to the decline in overseas shipments and unexpected demand, the iron ore inventory at ports decreased significantly. As of September 2025, the total inventory in the iron ore industry chain decreased by about 13.6 million tons compared to the end of 2024 to 192 million tons. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter of 2025, with the release of new production capacities and the slow decline in downstream demand, the downward trend of iron ore inventory may be reversed. [86] - Variety - specific Inventory: Based on data from 15 major ports, while the total inventory is slowly decreasing, there is significant differentiation among varieties. The inventory of Brazilian ore first decreased and then increased, and the inventory of Australian ore has recently decreased significantly. The inventory of low - grade ore has decreased significantly, the overall level of medium - grade ore has increased, and the inventory of PB fines has started to reach a high level. [90] Price - In the absence of obvious incremental expectations for pig iron demand in major overseas countries and in China, the iron ore supply - demand balance will be achieved through price cuts and shipment reductions, and the cost support around $80 - 85 per ton is relatively strong. [94]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for silicon manganese and silicon iron are generally neutral, with some specific aspects having a "bullish" or "bearish" tendency. For example, the "Steel & Metal Magnesium Production" aspect of silicon iron is rated as bullish, while the "Inventory" aspect is rated as bearish [3][4] 2. Report's Core Views Silicon Manganese - The market is currently characterized by a slight decline in weekly production, with steel mills resuming production and molten iron output basically recovering. The combined quantity of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts for manganese silicon is decreasing, and the proportion of hidden inventory is increasing. On the cost side, there is an obvious upward trend in the spot price of manganese ore at northern ports, while the price of chemical coke has decreased by 50 yuan/ton. The overall market sentiment is neutral [3] Silicon Iron - The market sentiment is average, with the market referring to HBIS's tender price. The production of silicon iron is relatively stable. On the demand side, blast furnaces of northern steel mills are gradually resuming production, molten iron output is rising, and the output of metal magnesium is continuing to increase slightly. It is expected that the demand for silicon iron will increase in the future. Currently, the immediate-profit situation in the main production areas is poor, and the price of semi-coke has risen slightly [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Silicon Manganese Manganese Ore - The total port inventory of manganese ore is 4.525 million tons, showing a slight increase compared to the previous period. Among them, the inventory at Tianjin Port has increased slightly to 3.803 million tons, still lower than the same period last year, while the inventory at Qinzhou Port has decreased slightly to 717,000 tons, approaching the level of the same period last year [12] - The inventory of South African ore at Tianjin Port is 2.698 million tons, showing a slight increase. The inventory of Gabon ore is 293,000 tons, showing a slight decrease compared to the previous period and far lower than the same period last year. The inventory of Australian ore is 362,000 tons, showing a slight increase and approaching the level of the same period last year [15] - The price of Gabon lumps at Tianjin Port is 40 yuan/ton-degree, Australian lumps are 40.2 yuan/ton-degree, and South African semi-carbonate is 34.3 yuan/ton-degree, showing a slight increase. The actual transaction price of manganese ore is slightly lower than the quoted price [17] Supply - As of September 19, the weekly output of silicon manganese has increased to 208,800 tons. The daily average output in Inner Mongolia has decreased to 14,440 tons/day, in Ningxia has decreased significantly to 6,530 tons/day, in Yunnan has increased slightly to 2,700 tons/day, in Guizhou has increased slightly to 1,900 tons/day, and in Guangxi is 1,345 tons/day [30] Demand - As of September 19, the weekly demand of Mysteel sample enterprises is 121,400 tons, and the weekly output of the five major steel products has decreased to 855,460 tons. The proportion of rebar output in the total output of the five major steel products has decreased [40] Price - The market price in Inner Mongolia is around 5,730 yuan/ton, and in Tianjin it is 5,820 yuan/ton. HBIS's tender price is 6,000 yuan/ton [48] Cost and Profit - As of September 19, the price of chemical coke has decreased by 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. The ex-factory prices of 25 - 40mm chemical coke in Yinchuan, Ordos, and Alxa are 1,140 yuan/ton, 1,060 yuan/ton, and 1,090 yuan/ton respectively. The second round of price cuts for coke has been implemented [51] - The immediate profit of silicon manganese is low, but the loss situation has improved. The market is fluctuating upwards, the price of manganese ore is firm, and the price of chemical coke has decreased slightly [53] Month Spread - As of September 18, the 1 - 5 month spread of silicon manganese is -44 yuan/ton, showing a low-level fluctuation [56] Basis and Inventory - The market is fluctuating upwards, the spot price has increased slightly, and the basis has weakened slightly. As of September 18, the combined quantity of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts for silicon manganese is 319,950 tons, showing a slight increase compared to the previous period but still maintaining a downward trend. Attention should be paid to the recovery situation after the concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts in October [59] Silicon Iron Supply - As of September 12, the weekly output is 113,100 tons. The daily average output in Inner Mongolia is 5,190 tons, in Qinghai is 2,360 tons, in Ningxia is 3,920 tons, and in Shaanxi is 2,580 tons [73] Demand - The demand for silicon iron from steel mills has decreased, but the total consumption of silicon iron by Mysteel sample steel mills is still significantly higher than the same period last year. Blast furnaces of northern steel mills are gradually resuming production, molten iron output is rising significantly, and it is expected that the demand for silicon iron will increase in the future [77] - As of September 19, the export price of metal magnesium at Tianjin Port is 2,435 US dollars/ton, and the market price has decreased slightly to 16,750 yuan/ton, remaining relatively stable overall. The weekly output of metal magnesium is 17,241 tons, showing a slight increase compared to the previous period. The supply side of magnesium ingots has raised the quoted price, but the actual market follow - up and trading volume are insufficient, and most buyers are cautiously waiting and watching. Real - order purchases are scarce, and low - price sources are also hard to find, resulting in a stalemate in supply - demand trading [86] Price - As of September 19, the overseas FOB price of 75 - grade silicon iron is 1,105 US dollars/ton, and that of 72 - grade silicon iron is 1,025 US dollars/ton, showing a slight increase compared to the previous period. In July, the import volume of silicon iron decreased significantly compared to the previous period, while the export volume increased slightly and is higher than the same period last year [90] Cost and Profit - As of September 19, the prices of small - sized semi - coke in the main production areas have increased slightly. The current prices in Shaanxi, Ningxia, and Inner Mongolia are 660 yuan/ton, 695 yuan/ton, and 650 yuan/ton respectively. The price of oxidized iron scale remains at 830 yuan/ton [97] - As of September 18, the point - to - point profit loss of silicon iron has narrowed slightly. The loss in Shaanxi is relatively large, while that in Inner Mongolia is relatively small. The production profits in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shaanxi, and Qinghai are -209 yuan/ton, -262 yuan/ton, -274 yuan/ton, and -213 yuan/ton respectively [106] Month Spread - As of September 18, the 11 - 1 month spread of silicon iron is 12 yuan/ton, showing a slight weakening compared to the previous period and lower than the same period last year [108] Basis and Inventory - The market is fluctuating upwards, the basis of silicon iron has weakened slightly, and as of September 18, the basis is -394 yuan/ton. As of September 18, the combined quantity of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts for silicon iron is 94,780 tons, showing a significant increase compared to the previous period [111] Balance Sheet - The balance sheets for silicon manganese and silicon iron from January to December 2025 show the supply, demand, production, import, export, and surplus/deficit situations for each month, as well as the year - on - year cumulative changes in production and consumption [113][114]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - In Q4, domestic coking coal supply is unlikely to return to the high levels of H1, and the annual import volume is expected to be lower than in 2024. The coal price may first decline and then rise. Coke production is expected to increase slightly, and it will continue to follow the fluctuations of raw coal [3][4]. - In 2025, the price of coking coal and coke first declined and then increased. The market was affected by policies such as anti - involution and over - production inspection [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price Trends - From January to May 2025, coal prices fell smoothly until some mines suffered losses. In June, the market bottomed out and rebounded, and from July to August, it strengthened rapidly under policy influence and then oscillated at a high level [7]. - In H2, coal prices rebounded significantly following the futures market. Shanxi Anze low - sulfur main coking coal and Jinzhong medium - sulfur main coking coal prices increased compared to the June lows [14]. - Mongolian coal prices followed the futures market closely. The Q3 Mongolian coal long - term agreement price decreased, and it is expected to increase slightly in Q4. The prices of imported seaborne coal such as Australian and Russian coal increased in Q3 [19]. 2. Coking Coal Supply - **Domestic Production**: From January to July 2025, the raw coal output was 2.78 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%. The coking coal output was 29 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.7%, but the growth rate declined monthly. It is estimated that the annual coking coal output will be 478 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5 million tons [3]. - **Import**: From January to July 2025, China imported 62.45 million tons of coking coal, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. It is estimated that the annual coking coal import volume will be 106 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16 million tons [3]. 3. Coking Coal Demand - It is estimated that the annual domestic consumption of coking coal will be 595 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5% [3]. 4. Coking Coal Inventory - As of early September, the total coking coal inventory was 25.6 million tons, a decrease of 5.37 million tons compared to the beginning of the year. The upstream inventory has been reduced to a relatively low level, and the downstream replenishment intention is average [3]. 5. Coke Supply - From January to August 2025, the national coke output was 334.06 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. It is estimated that the annual coke output will increase by about 1 - 2% to reach about 495 million tons [4]. 6. Coke Demand - From January to August 2025, the average daily pig iron output was 2.37 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3%. It is estimated that the annual pig iron output will increase by 2.6%, and the annual coke demand will be 399 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2% [4]. - From January to July 2025, China's cumulative export of coke and semi - coke was 4.4 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 22%. It is expected that the monthly coke export will remain at about 600,000 tons [4]. 7. Coke Inventory - As of mid - September, the total coke inventory was 9.06 million tons, with a slight decrease compared to the beginning of the year. The current inventory structure is relatively healthy, but the downstream replenishment intention is weak. If the coking operation remains at a high level, there is a high probability of inventory accumulation in Q4 [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold has broken through and risen after a four - month consolidation, with a year - to - date increase of nearly 40%. Given the expected consecutive interest rate cuts in September, October, and December 2025, and macro - hedging against concerns about the Fed's independence and the US dollar credit system, there is still room for gold prices to rise [3]. - The "One Big Beautiful Bill Act", soaring tariff revenues, and the postponement of long - term Treasury bond issuance plans seem to improve the US fiscal outlook. However, due to rigid fiscal spending constraints, a 6% deficit rate has become the "new normal", which fundamentally supports the gold price [3]. - The weakening of the Fed's independence is another important factor driving up the gold price. Political intervention in monetary policy has increased, shaking market confidence in the traditional policy framework [3]. - Although global central bank gold purchases have decreased since the second quarter, central banks, especially those of Russia, Turkey, and China, will continue to diversify their reserve assets by reducing US Treasury holdings and increasing gold, and the "Gold is the new bond" logic persists, and the gold - silver ratio will not fall continuously [3]. - As the Fed returns to the interest - rate cut cycle, the inflow of net long positions in the gold ETF and futures markets will create additional demand [3]. - Stablecoins, as derivatives of the US dollar system, cannot alleviate the huge financing gap of US Treasury bonds and thus cannot shake the upward trend of gold prices in this cycle [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Recent Market Review - The median projections for real GDP growth, unemployment rate, PCE inflation, core PCE inflation, and the federal funds rate from 2025 to the long - run are presented, showing changes compared to the June projections. For example, the projected real GDP growth in 2025 is 1.6% (June projection: 1.4%) [8]. - Powell's remarks at the press conference were neutral with a hawkish tilt. He did not hint at a series of future interest - rate cuts, and the SEP raised GDP projections for the next two years and the inflation rate for next year while lowering the unemployment rate, indicating that risk - management interest - rate cuts are expected to boost the economy [10]. 3.2 Fiscal Track Seemingly Shows Signs of Recovery - The "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" was signed into law on July 4. It includes tax cuts and spending adjustments. The CBO predicts it will increase the basic deficit by about $3.4 trillion in the next decade, and with additional interest costs, the deficit increase could reach $4.1 trillion. If tariff revenues are lower than expected, the deficit improvement goal will be harder to achieve [15]. - US tariff revenues are rising at an unprecedented slope. In April, the monthly revenue was $17.4 billion, and in August, it soared to $31.4 billion. If the third - quarter momentum continues, the 2026 fiscal - year tariff revenue could approach $380 billion, which may offset most of the costs of the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" in an optimistic scenario. The average effective tariff rate faced by US consumers has reached 17.4%, the highest since 1935 [18]. - From April to June, the term premium soared nearly 60 bps due to factors such as the deterioration of the fiscal path. In July, the Treasury Department will keep the auction scale of nominal notes and bonds unchanged in the next few quarters and expand the long - term Treasury bond buyback program, relying more on short - term bonds to finance the deficit [22]. 3.3 Structural Problems of Fiscal Deficit Remain Severe - In the 2024 fiscal year, total fiscal expenditure was $6.8 trillion (23.7% of GDP), with mandatory expenditures accounting for a large proportion. By the 2035 fiscal year, the fiscal deficit is expected to surge to $2.7 trillion, mainly driven by increased social security, medical insurance, and net interest expenditures. Any attempt to cut social welfare or net interest expenditures has significant negative impacts [29]. - As of August 2025, the federal fiscal deficit reached $1.97 trillion, a 4% year - on - year increase. Although tariff revenue increases and the "DOGE plan" can partially offset the deficit pressure, they are insignificant compared to the large debt stock. Federal fiscal revenue has returned to the pre - pandemic long - term equilibrium level, but fiscal expenditure far exceeds it, making a 6% deficit rate the new normal [34]. - According to CRFB's prediction, under Trump's leadership, the federal deficit from 2025 - 2035 is expected to be between 5.6% - 6.5% of GDP, much higher than previous levels. This may lead to an increase in the term premium of US Treasury bonds, a sell - off of bonds, and an increase in the demand for gold as a hedging asset [39]. 3.4 Central Bank Gold - Buying Behavior in 2025 Has Not Weakened - High - quality research infers that China's official gold purchases may be completed through the London LBMA. From January to July 2025, UK customs records showed that China imported over 137 tons of gold, much higher than the official figure of 20.8 tons. The scale of China's central bank gold purchases decreased after April, with a 46% quarter - on - quarter reduction in Q2 compared to Q1 [44]. - The research report of the European Central Bank shows that by the end of 2024, the proportion of gold in official foreign exchange reserves reached 20%, exceeding the euro. Central banks such as those of Russia, Turkey, and China are increasing gold holdings while reducing US dollar assets, especially US Treasury bonds [50]. - Since 2022, the gold - silver ratio has broken through the 50 - 80 range of the past 30 years. After April, the slowdown of central bank gold - buying led to a temporary decline in the gold - silver ratio. However, if central bank gold - buying continues and silver performs unstably during the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle, the gold - silver ratio is unlikely to fall in the long term [55]. 3.5 Decline in US Government Agency Credibility: A Strong Catalyst for Gold Prices - Although the personnel structure of the Fed's FOMC has not changed substantially, political intervention has increased significantly. If Cook is removed, there is a risk of replacing the 12 regional Fed presidents. Also, if Powell continues to serve as a Fed governor after his term as chairman ends, it may limit the government's influence on the composition of the monetary policy committee [58][61]. - The Fed's independence is crucial for maintaining the credibility of monetary policy. When the market fears political intervention in monetary policy, investors tend to buy gold as a hedge, driving up the gold price [61]. 3.6 Fed Interest - Rate Cuts: Another Driver of Gold Price Increase - Since April, new non - farm payrolls have declined, and the ratio of job vacancies to the unemployed has reached a new low since the pandemic. In August, core CPI showed resilience, but there was no widespread and continuous price pressure. As a result, the Fed cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 bps on September 18 [66]. - In the four weeks leading up to September 17, global gold ETF holdings increased by 74 tons, and COMEX gold futures non - commercial net long positions increased by about 49,000 contracts. With the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle starting, the decline in yields will drive up gold demand [67]. 3.7 Stablecoins Are Essentially an Extension of the US Dollar System - The "GENIUS Act" aims to establish a regulatory framework for stablecoins, requiring issuers to hold high - liquidity reserve assets. The total market value of USDT and USDC, which account for over 90% of the stablecoin market, is about $250 billion, while the public's US Treasury bond holdings exceed $29 trillion. Currently, stablecoins are not significant enough to impact the US Treasury bond market [78]. - Stablecoins can only absorb part of short - term US Treasury bonds and cannot fill the trillion - level fiscal financing gap. For example, Tether (USDT)'s reserve assets are mainly short - term Treasury bonds, but its overall scale is limited compared to the US Treasury bond market [79].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - PVC market in the fourth quarter is expected to first rebound with the macro - situation and then return to fundamentals and delivery logic. For trading strategies, it includes unilateral interval operations, option strategies, and month - spread strategies [3][78]. - The caustic soda market in the fourth quarter is expected to have short - term price stimulation due to alumina stockpiling and then return to seasonal surplus. Trading strategies involve unilateral trading, arbitrage, and option strategies [7][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs PVC Market 1. Three - quarter Supply Review - The overall operation of existing PVC plants was stable in the first quarter, and seasonal maintenance in the second and third quarters affected supply. The average operation rate in the first three quarters was about 76.8%, and the output was about 17.948 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.35%. There were many new plant commissions from July to September [3][16]. 2. Three - quarter Demand Review - The apparent demand in the first three quarters was about 15.16 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.4%. Terminal demand was at a seasonal low, and speculative demand was average. Real estate data was weak, and cement demand and prices had been weak since 2024. Exports from January to July were relatively strong, with PVC powder exports of 2.291 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 830,000 tons (56.9%), while floor exports decreased by 11.15% year - on - year [20][32][34]. 3. Three - quarter Inventory Review - In the third quarter, inventory shifted from upstream to mid - stream, and both started to accumulate recently. Due to weak demand and the futures price being higher than the spot price, there was a lot of selling hedging by upstream and futures - cash traders, and inventory shifted to the delivery warehouse. As of September 17, the warehouse receipt volume was 110,900, the highest in history [42][46]. 4. Fourth - quarter Supply Outlook - There will be some maintenance in October, and then maintenance will decrease. There is a possibility of capacity exit in existing plants. Newly commissioned plants have been postponed but will be concentrated recently, and the supply pressure will be reflected in the fourth quarter [52][53][57]. 5. Fourth - quarter Demand Outlook - It is difficult for domestic demand to have incremental demand in the fourth quarter. In terms of exports, attention should be paid to the impact of India's anti - dumping on China. India has strong demand, but the anti - dumping tax rate has been adjusted to $122 - 232 per ton [3][71]. 6. Fourth - quarter Trading Strategies - Strategy 1: Unilateral interval operations. PVC is still in an oversupply situation, but low valuation and falling caustic soda prices provide support. It is expected to trade on macro - improvement factors from September to October and then return to fundamentals. - Strategy 2: Option strategies. Sell out - of - the - money put options on V2601 at relatively low prices and sell out - of - the - money call options on V2601 after the price rebounds. - Strategy 3: Month - spread strategies. Go for positive spreads between January and May contracts and look for positive spread opportunities between May and September contracts [78]. Caustic Soda Market 1. Caustic Soda Spot and Futures Market Review - The spot price of caustic soda has fluctuated due to factors such as maintenance, downstream replenishment, and changes in liquid chlorine prices. The futures market has also shown significant fluctuations, affected by factors like inventory accumulation, market sentiment, and alumina stockpiling [81][83]. 2. Caustic Soda Supply and Demand Review - The output in the first three quarters was about 31.703 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.42%. There were new plant commissions in the third quarter, and some capacity exited. Non - aluminum demand improved in Q3, and paper - making operations were divided. Exports from January to July 2025 were 2.398 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 51.3% [85][95]. 3. Caustic Soda Supply and Demand Outlook - There is a total of 1.05 million tons of capacity to be commissioned, mainly from September to October. The commissioning compliance rate is 50 - 60%. It is expected that the operation rate will recover in late September, decline in October, and remain relatively high from November to December. There is still new demand for alumina commissioning and stockpiling in the fourth quarter, but attention should be paid to the impact of alumina over - supply on demand [98][100][103]. 4. Caustic Soda Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: The near - term is weak, and it is advisable to buy low - priced contracts for the peak season. - Arbitrage: Conduct reverse spreads from non - stockpiling months to stockpiling months, positive spreads from stockpiling months to off - peak months, long caustic soda and short alumina during alumina commissioning and stockpiling, and short caustic soda and long alumina when alumina is in over - supply and production is cut [138].