Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel price is currently in a consolidation phase. Last week, Indonesia's review of the compliance of port logistics in the nickel industrial park increased the risk of supply disruptions, and the rainy season in the main production areas poses a challenge to the stability of raw material supply. In December, the net import volume of nickel products increased significantly, while weak downstream demand led to a further accumulation of inventory contradictions. However, as nickel ore supply tightens and the supply - demand pattern is expected to improve, the nickel price still has upward momentum [3][4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel Market - **Nickel Price and Market Sentiment**: The nickel price is in a volatile state. The Shanghai Nickel 2602 contract opened at 141,500 yuan/ton and closed at 148,010 yuan/ton last week, with a weekly increase of 4.71%. The overall market sentiment shows that although there are short - term supply disruptions, the long - term supply - demand situation may drive the price up [3][4][9] - **Nickel Ore**: As of January 26, the CIF prices of Philippine laterite nickel ore with grades of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% were 30, 59, and 78.5 dollars/wet ton respectively, with week - on - week increases of 1, 4, and 0 dollars/wet ton. The domestic trade prices of Indonesian Ni1.2% and Ni1.6% nickel ore also increased. The supply is affected by the rainy season, with mining and shipping in the main production areas severely disrupted. The port inventory of nickel ore decreased to 7.36 million wet tons as of January 23, a week - on - week decrease of 5.03% [33][36] - **Refined Nickel**: In December 2025, China's electrolytic nickel monthly output was 31,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.7%. The inventory continued to accumulate, with the pure nickel social inventory (including the SHFE) increasing to 66,300 tons last week, a week - on - week increase of 4.38%. The cost of electrolytic nickel production also increased slightly [45][49][56] - **Nickel Intermediate Products**: As of January 26, the FOB prices of MHP and high - grade nickel matte increased. In December 2025, Indonesia's MHP and high - grade nickel matte production increased, while the MHP import volume decreased and the high - grade nickel matte import volume increased [41] - **Nickel Sulfate**: In December 2025, China's nickel sulfate monthly output decreased to 35,000 nickel tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.47%. The market is in a state of supply - demand game, with some downstream manufacturers adopting a wait - and - see attitude. The cost of nickel salt production provides strong support, and the price is in a volatile and consolidating state [59][65] - **Ferronickel**: In December 2025, the national ferronickel production (metal content) decreased to 21,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 22.07%. The supply side remains at a high level, and the price is approaching the upper limit that steel mills can bear, with a key contradiction between cost and profit [70][72] Stainless Steel Market - **Stainless Steel Price and Market Performance**: The stainless steel futures market was strong last week. The main contract opened at 14,290 yuan/ton and closed at 14,725 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.15%. The spot price of the 304 variety also increased [76] - **Stainless Steel Production**: In December 2025, China's stainless steel crude steel production decreased to 3.2605 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.66%. It is expected that the production in January 2026 will increase to 3.4065 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.48% [78] - **Stainless Steel Inventory**: As of January 23, the stainless steel social inventory decreased to 921,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.61%. The inventory is still on a downward trend, but the speed has slowed down [81] - **Stainless Steel Cost**: The cost of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel increased to 14,009 yuan/ton as of January 27, a week - on - week increase of 1.53%, mainly due to the increase in raw material prices [85] Industry News - PT Gag Nikel in Indonesia was fined for environmental audit defects, and the regulatory mechanism is becoming stricter [7] - The Indonesian Commercial Competition Supervisory Commission pointed out monopoly behavior in the port storage and logistics of the Morowali Industrial Park in Central Sulawesi and required the opening of port services and management [7] - Jilin Jien Nickel Industry Co., Ltd.'s 60,000 - ton nickel sulfate project was officially put into operation on December 31, 2025 [7] - The nickel mine of Vale Indonesia suspended mining activities due to the unapproved RKAB quota in 2026, but the smelting project is still in production [7] - Shengtun Mining Group Co., Ltd. terminated the investment in the 40,000 - nickel - metal - ton high - grade nickel matte project in Indonesia [7]

聚聚聚聚聚聚聚聚 2025/1/28 作者：汤剑林 从业资格证号：F03117796 交易咨询证号：Z0019347 研究联系方式：tangjianlin@zjtfqh.com 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 审核：李文涛 交易咨询证号：Z0015640 短期观点总结 | 聚烯烃 | 定性 | 解析 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | PP/PE近期持续反弹，一方面由于12月价格大幅回落后价格修复性反弹，另一方面由于原料价格上涨支撑带 | | | | 动PP/PE价格，且化工市场情绪整体修复，整体处于上行节奏，PP/PE作为估值偏低品种存在补涨的需求，但 | | 核心观点 | 中性 | 相对其他化工品涨幅较小，当前供需逻辑偏弱。预期来看，春节前下游需求淡季，且月底开始部分装置重启， | | | | 供应存在增量，春节期间累库较为明确，供需预期仍偏弱，但短期逻辑主要还是情绪主导，叠加地缘不确定 | | | | 性仍在，预计PP/PE偏强震荡，关注化工市场情绪变化。 | | 供应 | PE偏多 | 短期检修偏多，但后期计划逐渐重启，供应端存在增量。 | | | PP偏多 | | | 需求 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Iron Ore Weekly Report 2026/1/28 [1] - Author: Kang Jian [1] -从业资格证号: F03088041 [1] -交易咨询证号: Z0019583 [1] - Research Contact: kangjian@zjtfqh.com [1] -审核: Li Wentao [1] -交易咨询证号: Z0015640 [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Supply has stabilized and is rising, downstream profits are stable, hot metal production is fluctuating within a narrow range, downstream demand is fair, and the short - term supply - demand situation is loose. However, pre - holiday restocking demand remains, so iron ore may maintain a volatile trend. [4] - The monthly spread of iron ore may remain volatile in the short term. [5] Summary by Directory Supply - Global iron ore shipments have stabilized and slightly increased. Reuters data shows that on January 24, 2026, the 7 - day moving average of global iron ore shipments (excluding mainland China) was 4327 thousand tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.2% and a year - on - year increase of 70.7%. Australian shipments were 2352 thousand tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.8% and a year - on - year increase of 114.6%, and Brazilian shipments were 905.9 thousand tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12.1% but a year - on - year increase of 0.3%. [24][29] - Except for India, non - mainstream shipments are 82% higher year - on - year. [33] - The total arrival volume has declined, but it is still higher year - on - year. The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 129.7 thousand tons last week. [52][101] - The total output of domestic iron ore continues to rise. [107] Demand - The profitability rate of steel mills has increased, and hot metal production has slightly increased. The daily average hot metal production of 247 samples was 228.1 thousand tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 thousand tons, and the average daily hot metal production in January was about 228 thousand tons, indicating stable demand. [10][110] - The profits of finished steel products are stable, and the scrap - to - pig iron price difference in Tangshan is stable. [114] - The weekly output of the five major steel products has slightly increased, the profits of finished steel products are stable, the demand for rebar has slightly decreased, and the demand for hot - rolled coils has slightly decreased. [133] Inventory - Port inventory has increased. The 45 - port inventory increased by 212 thousand tons, and the proportion of traded ore was 66.3%, a slight increase compared to the previous period. [152] - The total inventory of imported ore in steel mills increased by 127 thousand tons, the inventory in steel mills decreased by 2.53 thousand tons, and the inventory of floating cargoes + port inventory increased by 129.1 thousand tons. The available days of imported ore increased by 2 days to 23 days. [162] Price - Futures and spot prices have declined in a volatile manner, the basis is stable, and the 5 - 9 monthly spread has slightly decreased. [169] - The basis of the 05 contract is about 3%, and the basis is stable, with the basis rate slightly decreasing by 0.2%. [10] - The decline in the premium of Brazilian fines has slowed down, the premiums of mainstream low - to - medium - grade ores are stable, and the price difference between domestic and foreign ores continues to increase slightly. [9][179][182] - Ocean freight has stabilized and rebounded, and the import profits of mainstream varieties are stable. [185][191] - The average value of the Platts Index in January was 105, corresponding to a disk valuation of about 782. [8][193] Balance Sheet - The total supply and consumption of iron ore show different trends over time. The total supply in 2026/1 was 12386 million tons, and the consumption was 12538 million tons, with a surplus of - 342 million tons. [195] - Due to the continuously high year - on - year hot metal production, the report slightly increased the demand forecast for iron ore. [195]

观点小结 | PX | 聚聚聚聚聚 | 聚聚 | | --- | --- | --- | | 核心观点 | 中性 | PX供需变化不大，亚洲负荷高位，近端浮动价偏弱，PXN估值不低，短期关注资金变化。 | | 月差 | 中性 | 供需变化不大，月差偏弱。 | | 现货 | 中性 | PX现货表现一般，3月浮动价格在-5.5附近，4月在-4~-3附近商谈。 | | 装置变动 | 中性 | 国内PX负荷88.9%，整体高位。上海石化略提负，浙石化略降负2-3周。中化泉州计划重启。 | | 进口 | 谨慎偏空 | 亚洲81%，韩国GS提负，其他变化不大。 | | 下游需求 | 中性 | PTA装置变化不大，需求订单边际略走弱，织造负荷季节性略回落，聚酯86.2%陆续检修中。 | | 供需平衡 | 中性 | 1-2月供需松平衡，预计26年上半年前PX压力不大，预期格局尚可。 | | 加工利润 | 谨慎偏空 | PXN持稳，目前PXN350美元高位附近。 | PTA&MEG 聚聚聚聚聚聚聚聚 聚聚聚聚 2026/1/27 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 审核：李文涛 作者：刘思琪 交易咨询证号：Z0015640 ...

碳酸锂周报 2 0 2 6 / 1 / 2 7 大大大大 作者：陈琳萱 从业资格证号：F03108575 交易咨询证号：Z0021508 审核：李文涛 交易咨询证号：Z0015640 邮箱：chenlinxuan@zjtfqh.com 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 观点小结 | 碳酸锂 | 定性 | 解析 | | --- | --- | --- | | 核心观点 | 震荡 | 2月需求排产环比预计下调，只是下调幅度也落在了市场于12月给出的判断内，而抢出口、上游涨价引发的负反馈等预期均未明显体现在2 月的排产数据中，可关注排产与实际产量间是否存在较大差距。而年前在需求旺盛的远期展望下，3月的需求排产给到了显著上调的判断， 使得Q1需求呈现出环比基本持平的态势，因此在2月数据未超预期的情况下，后续3月需求排产的变动或将对期价造成一定扰动。短期在下 | | | | 游未有强负反馈的情况下，价格或仍偏向于震荡偏强态势。此外，近期监管较为严格，关注日内价格振幅，建议投资者谨慎持仓。 | | 碳酸锂现货价格 | 偏多 | 上周电碳现货价格环比上涨8000元/吨至171000元/吨。 | | 月差 | 中性 | ...

铜铜铜铜 铜铜铜 2 0 2 6 / 1 / 2 7 作者：刘诗瑶 联系人：周小鸥 从业资格证号：F3041949 从业资格证号：F03093454 交易咨询证号：Z0019385 邮箱：zhouxiaoou@zjtfqh.com 邮箱：liushiyao@zjtfqh.com 审核：李文涛 交易咨询证号：Z0015640 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 本周观点 ◼ 上周，铜价探低回升，沪期铜最高触及99500元/吨附近支撑表现良好，LME铜短线支持位在12700美元/吨。本周初来看，有色板块在贵金属点 燃市场情绪下，开始走高，预计铜价短期内有望上探前期历史高位，等待更高的机会出现新一轮上攻。 ◼ 特朗普最新的倡议是他的"和平委员会"——在达沃斯高调发布。该委员会的抱负如今显然已远远超出最初稳定和重建加沙的目标。特朗普 政府正在做的是打造一个联合国以外的替代性论坛。市场更担忧的在于，特朗普政府任期还剩三年，他反复无常的举动引发重大危机的可能 性相当高——从全球经济到国际政治体系，再到美国自身民主与社会的稳定。在这种情况下，对于美国的盟友而言，对美国"去风险化"似 乎是唯一理性的策略。但在一个美国仍然是 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views PTA - PTA supply is under planned maintenance, demand is seasonally weakening, and the balance is gradually entering a seasonal inventory accumulation phase. The supply - demand drive is average with a processing fee of around 300+. Short - term expectations are not bad, and attention should be paid to capital changes [5][57]. PX - PX supply - demand changes are minimal. Near - term imports are rising while demand is weakening, leading to a slight inventory build - up. Long - term expectations are favorable, and short - term valuations are not low. Attention should be paid to capital preferences [6]. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - The cost of ethylene glycol has corrected, the expected import arrivals are not low, polyester is in a seasonal production cut, and the near - term faces seasonal inventory accumulation. After a short - term correction, the valuation is in a low - level range, and it is expected to trade in a range in the short term [7][137]. Summary by Related Catalogs Polyester - Polyester maintenance is gradually increasing, and the load is seasonally declining. As of January 16, the polyester load was around 88.3%, and the estimated loads for January and February are 88% and 83% respectively. Polyester cash flow has improved significantly, and the average inventory is around 12.9 days, with overall inventory pressure being low [8][14][38]. - Terminal new orders are average. Domestic demand has entered the pre - holiday off - season, while foreign demand is reported to have improved. As of January 15, the operating rates of texturing, weaving, and dyeing have slightly decreased to 70% (- 2%), 55% (- 1%), and 70% (+ 1%) respectively [9]. PTA - PTA device changes: New materials are under planned maintenance, Ineos' 1.25 - million - ton device is shut down until the end of March, Dushan No.3 has restarted, Dushan No.2 is planned to shut down at the end of the month, and YS's three sets of devices and Sichuan Energy Investment are under maintenance. The planned maintenance volume from January to February is not low [45]. - PTA inventory: As of January 16, the social inventory of PTA (excluding credit warehouse receipts) has increased by 40,000 tons to 2.045 million tons. The inventory in warehouses and ports has slightly decreased, while the inventory in PTA and polyester factories has increased. Currently, the PTA inventory pressure is not high [46]. - PTA balance sheet: From January to February, there is a slight seasonal inventory accumulation. The PTA processing fee remains stable, and the short - term drive is average. Attention should be paid to capital changes, and after a correction, it is advisable to be cautiously bullish at low levels [57]. PX - PX device changes: The domestic PX load is 89.4%, and the Asian load is 80.6%. Jinling in China has slightly increased its load, Zhejiang Petrochemical has reduced its load as planned, and Fuhua has plans for maintenance and capacity expansion. In Asia, Thailand's PTTG has restarted and increased its load, and a 190,000 - ton device in Israel has restarted [85]. - PX balance sheet: The near - term changes are minimal, and the PX supply - demand is in a loose balance. The PXN is around 330+ and the valuation has slightly weakened, with an unclear drive [89]. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - MEG device changes: The domestic MEG load is 74%, and the coal - based load is 80%. Fude, Sinochem Quanzhou, and one line of Shenghong are under maintenance, Zhejiang Petrochemical has reduced its load, and Sanjiang plans to reduce its load in February. The restart of Henan Energy has been postponed, and Yankuang has restarted. Overseas, two sets of devices of Taiwan Nan Ya are shut down, three sets of devices in Saudi Arabia are under maintenance, the Kuwaiti device is under maintenance for one month, an Iranian device is under maintenance, and a 360,000 - ton device of US Nan Ya is under maintenance [104][108][124]. - MEG inventory: As of January 19, the port inventory in the main port area of East China is about 795,000 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons month - on - month. The overall inventory is moderately high. The expected arrival volume from January 19 - 25 is 205,000 tons, and the port inventory is expected to slightly increase. The raw material stocking days of polyester factories for ethylene glycol are 15.2 days (+ 0.6), and downstream stocking has steadily increased [132]. - MEG balance sheet: The near - term port arrival expectations are high, and it is in a seasonal inventory accumulation phase. The drive is average, and it is expected to trade in a range [137].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PTA: Core view - Neutral; Spot - Cautiously bearish; Processing profit - Cautiously bearish [5] - PX: Core view - Neutral; Device change - Cautiously bearish; Import - Cautiously bearish; Processing profit - Cautiously bearish [6] - Ethylene glycol (MEG): Core view - Neutral; Month - spread - Cautiously bearish; Spot - Cautiously bearish; Import - Cautiously bullish [7] 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: Supply changes little, demand has a seasonal load - reduction plan, supply - demand weakens marginally, processing fees remain high, short - term drivers are not obvious, buy on dips, and focus on cost changes [5][64] - PX: Supply - demand is okay, short - term PXN is above 350, both domestic and foreign supplies are increasing marginally, short - term valuation is not low, focus on capital preference [6][86] - MEG: Coal cost is strong, affected by Iran's geopolitics, expected imports may decline, near - term still faces inventory accumulation pressure, polyester has a production - cut plan starting mid - month, short - term range - bound operation [7][135] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs PTA Supply - side - Device changes: Weilian increases load, YS Ningbo, Dahua, and Hainan are under maintenance, Sichuan Energy Investment is under maintenance until late January, Dushan 3 is under maintenance, Ineos operates at 70% and plans maintenance in mid - January, and New Materials has a maintenance plan in January. Long - stopped devices are expected to continue maintenance in 2026, and planned maintenance in January - February is not low [49][64] - Inventory: As of January 9, PTA social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) decreased to 2.6 million tons, with polyester factory inventory and warehouse receipt inventory slightly declining, and current inventory pressure is not large [50] - Balance sheet: Near - term changes are small, with an increase in polyester's planned load reduction. The PTA processing fee of over 300 is not low. In January, production is 6.5 million tons, import is 0.2 million tons, export is 3.6 million tons, and total consumption is 5.977 million tons, with a surplus of 1.65 million tons [61][64] Demand - side - Polyester load: As of January 9, it was 90.8%, with cash - flow pressure and average inventory of about 12.7 days. From mid - January, polyester factories will gradually carry out maintenance, and the subsequent operating rate will decline seasonally. The load is estimated to be 91%, 88%, and 84% from December to February [19][41] - Downstream orders: Terminal demand is seasonally weakening. As of January 9, the operating rates of texturing, weaving, and dyeing decreased slightly to 72% (- 2%), 56% (- 3%), and 69% (-) [10] PX Supply - side - Device changes: Domestic load is 90.9%, Asian load is 81.2%. Shanghai Petrochemical slightly increases load, and Zhejiang Petrochemical plans to reduce load in mid - January. In Asia, FCFC in Taiwan reduces load, GS restarts in mid - January, Kuwaiti aromatics are under maintenance, and India's OMPL does not restart for the time being. Imports are expected to increase [83][86] - Balance sheet: In January, production is 3.39 million tons, import is 0.9 million tons, demand is 4.258 million tons, and inventory changes by 0.33 million tons. Supply - demand is in a loose balance, and PXN around 350+ has a relatively high valuation [85][86] Demand - side - Downstream demand: Demand orders are marginally weakening, weaving load is seasonally slightly declining, polyester load remains stable at a high level of 90.8%, and polyester inventory pressure is not large [6] MEG Supply - side - Device changes: As of January 9, the total MEG load is 74%, and the coal - based load is 79%. Domestic maintenance volume changes little. Chengdu Petroleum plans 10 - day maintenance in late January, while Fude, Sinochem Quanzhou, and Shenghong are under maintenance, and Zhejiang Petrochemical slightly reduces load. BASF's EG device is in progress. Coal - based Henan Energy Yongcheng is under 2 - week maintenance, Yankuang restarts, and Huayi increases load. Overseas, two 360,000 - ton devices of Taiwan Nanya are shut down, and devices in Saudi Arabia, Iran, Kuwait, and the US are under maintenance [102][121][135] - Inventory: As of January 12, the MEG port inventory in East China is about 802,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 77,000 tons. Inventory is moderately high. The arrival forecast is not low, and port inventory is expected to rise slightly. Polyester factories' raw material stocking days are 14.6 days, and downstream stocking remains stable [129] - Balance sheet: In January, production is 1.9 million tons, import is 0.6 million tons, total consumption is 2.37 million tons, and the surplus is 0.13 million tons. Overseas maintenance increases, import is expected to improve, but polyester is seasonally under maintenance, and ports are still accumulating inventory [131][135] Demand - side - Polyester load: As of January 9, it is 90.8%. Polyester has a maintenance plan starting mid - January, and the load is estimated to be 91% and 88% in December and January [19][135] - Terminal orders: Terminal orders are slightly weakening, and stocking days are about half a month [135]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for nickel is "neutral", while the core view is "bullish". Specific aspects have different ratings: nickel ore price is "neutral", Indonesian domestic trade nickel ore is "bullish", freight is "neutral", refined nickel production is "bearish", refined nickel inventory (SMM) is "bearish", domestic NPI price is "bullish", nickel iron production is "bullish", nickel sulfate production is "bullish", stainless steel production schedule is "bullish", stainless steel social inventory is "bullish", and stainless steel cost is "bullish" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The current market focus has shifted to the RKAB quota approval in 2026, and the Indonesian Mining Association expects the relevant process to be completed within the next three months. Given the flexibility in policy implementation, there is a need to be vigilant about the deviation between the actual implementation of the quota and market expectations. Currently, nickel prices are supported by supply - side policy constraints and are expected to temporarily break away from the current pressure. However, as speculative funds drive the price to an overly optimistic range, nickel prices may be verified by the fundamentals [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News Update - Jilin Jien Nickel Industry Co., Ltd.'s 60,000 - ton nickel sulfate project was officially put into operation on December 31, 2025 [7] - Due to the non - approval of the 2026 nickel ore RKAB quota, PT Vale Indonesia Tbk has suspended its nickel ore mining activities [7] - On December 26, 2025, Shengtun Mining Group Co., Ltd. announced the termination of its investment in the 40,000 - ton high - grade nickel matte project in Indonesia [7] - The Indonesian Forest Law Enforcement Task Force (PKH) will fine 71 palm oil plantations and mining companies that violated forest area use as of December 8, 2025, including PT Weda Bay Nickel [7] - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) revealed that the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore commodities in early 2026, and the revised version will be announced in January or February [7] - The Indonesian government plans to cut the nickel ore mining quota in 2026, with the target set at about 250 million tons [7] 3.2 Market Performance - Last week, the main contract of SHFE nickel 2602 opened at 126,700 yuan/ton, closed at 132,850 yuan/ton, with a weekly high of 135,570 yuan/ton and a low of 124,180 yuan/ton, up 4.81% for the week [9] - The main contract of stainless steel opened at 12,955 yuan/ton, closed at 13,125 yuan/ton, with a weekly high of 13,200 yuan/ton and a low of 12,840 yuan/ton, up 1.31% for the week [78] 3.3 Price Changes - As of January 5, the average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased by 30 yuan/nickel point to 930 yuan/nickel point, a week - on - week increase of 3.33% [3][30] - As of January 5, the price of electrolytic nickel spot increased by 8,450 yuan/ton to 138,150 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 6.52% [16] - As of January 5, the price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 8,450 yuan/ton to 141,750 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 6.34%, and the premium increased by 300 to 7,400 yuan/ton [17] - As of January 5, the price of imported nickel increased by 8,150 yuan/ton to 134,750 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 6.44%, and the premium remained flat at 400 yuan/ton [17] - As of January 5, the LME nickel price increased by 1,530 US dollars/ton to 17,290 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 9.71% [21] - As of January 6, the CIF prices of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% Philippine laterite nickel ore remained flat at 29, 57, and 78.5 US dollars/wet ton respectively compared with last week [36] - As of January 2, the ex - works prices of Ni1.2% and Ni1.6% domestic trade nickel ore in Indonesia remained flat at 22.5 and 51.9 US dollars/wet ton respectively compared with last week [36] - As of January 6, the production cost of Chinese 304 cold - rolled stainless steel increased by 233 yuan/ton to 13,086 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.81% [88] 3.4 Supply and Demand - According to the monthly balance sheet of primary nickel in China, from May 2025 to May 2026, the total supply and demand of nickel are in a state of balance, with a supply surplus [4] - As of December 2025, China's electrolytic nickel monthly output increased by 0.56 million tons to 3.14 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.37% [3][48] - As of December 2025, China's nickel sulfate monthly output decreased by 1,640 tons to 29,200 nickel tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.47% [3][62] - As of December 2025, China's stainless steel crude steel output decreased by 226,000 tons to 3.2671 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.09% [3][81] - As of January 2, stainless steel social inventory decreased by 27,800 tons to 977,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.76% [3][84] 3.5 Inventory - As of January 6, SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased by 878 tons to 39,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.28%, and LME nickel warehouse receipts increased by 360 tons to 255,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.14% [52] - Last week, the pure nickel social inventory (including SHFE) increased by 556 tons to 58,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.95% [3][52] - As of December 31, nickel ore port inventory decreased by 120,000 tons to 8.69 million wet tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.36% [39] 3.6 Production Cost - As of December 2025, the average production cost of SMM electrolytic nickel increased by 143 US dollars/ton to 13,351 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.08% [58] - As of December 2025, the production costs of integrated MHP and high - grade nickel matte for producing electrowon nickel were 111,026 yuan/ton and 124,817 yuan/ton respectively [58] - As of January 6, the production cash cost of RKEF in Fujian decreased by 0.57 yuan/nickel point to 940.34 yuan/nickel point, and the production profit margin increased by 3.31 percentage points to - 0.49% [74]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PTA: Core view - neutral; Month - spread - neutral; Spot - neutral; Cost - neutral; Device change - neutral; Downstream demand - neutral; Supply - demand balance - cautiously bullish; Processing profit - cautiously bearish [5] - PX: Core view - neutral; Month - spread - neutral; Spot - neutral; Device change - cautiously bearish; Import - cautiously bearish; Downstream demand - neutral; Supply - demand balance - cautiously bullish; Processing profit - cautiously bearish [6] - Ethylene glycol: Core view - neutral; Month - spread - cautiously bearish; Spot - cautiously bearish; Device change - neutral; Import - cautiously bullish; Downstream demand - neutral; Supply - demand balance - neutral; Processing profit - neutral [7] 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: During the holiday, PTA changed little, polyester slightly reduced its load, the near - end balance was tight, the seasonal inventory accumulation pressure from January to February was not large, and the spot processing fee expanded significantly. After the valuation repair, the driving force was average. Short - term attention should be paid to the impact of cost and funds [5][53] - PX: The supply and demand of PX were acceptable. In the short term, PXN was above 350, and the supply at home and abroad both increased marginally. The short - term valuation was not low. Attention should be paid to the opportunities after the callback [6][81] - Ethylene glycol: The overseas maintenance of ethylene glycol increased, and the subsequent import volume might decrease. Although the expected arrival was not low, it still faced seasonal inventory accumulation. In the short term, it was expected to fluctuate within a range [7][132] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Terminal Demand and Polyester - Terminal demand: Seasonal decline, mainly digesting raw material inventory before and after the holiday, downstream inventory for about half a month. As of January 4, the operating rates of texturing, weaving, and dyeing decreased to 74% (-5%), 59% (-1%), and 69% (-) respectively [10] - Polyester load: As of January 4, it was around 90.8%. The polyester cash flow was squeezed, and the average inventory reached about 11.4 days. The pre - holiday raw materials were strong, the polyester profit was squeezed, and the cash flow was in deficit. Large manufacturers reduced production, but the current inventory was not high, so the load was maintained. The estimated loads in December and January were 91% and 88% respectively. After mid - January, polyester factories had plans to gradually reduce production due to poor efficiency [15][42] - Polyester inventory: Currently stable with a slight increase, and the pressure was not large. As of January 4, the inventories of POY, DTY, FDY, and staple fiber were 13.3, 23.7, 13.6, and 9.7 days respectively [16] - Polyester profit: Generally poor. Before the holiday, the cost was strong, and the profit of the polyester filament industry chain was compressed. The cash flows of filament and chips were significantly in deficit [27] PTA - Device changes: Three sets of YS were under maintenance, Zhongtai restarted, Dushan 1 restarted, Dushan 3 was under maintenance, Weilian increased its load to 90%. In January, New Materials and Ineos had maintenance plans. Long - term shutdown devices were expected to continue maintenance in 2026, and the planned maintenance volume from January to February was not low. Attention should be paid to whether the devices would restart after the processing fee repair [45][46] - Inventory: As of January 4, the social inventory of PTA (excluding credit warehouse receipts) decreased to 2.3 million tons, the factory inventory decreased, and the warehouse receipt inventory slightly decreased. The current inventory pressure was not large [47] - Balance sheet: The near - end was tight, the processing fee was repaired significantly. Attention should be paid to whether the devices would restart. The seasonal inventory accumulation pressure from January to February was not high. Short - term attention should be paid to the impact of cost and funds [51][53] PX - Device changes: The domestic operating rate was 90.6%, and the Asian load was 80.9%. Domestically, Yangzi, Weilian, and Fuhua slightly increased their loads, Fujia restarted one line, and Tianjin Petrochemical was under maintenance. In Asia, two sets of Indonesian devices slightly increased their loads, the GS disproportionation restarted slightly ahead of schedule, and the Indian OMPL device was planned to restart in February [77][81] - Balance sheet: The supply and demand of PX were in a loose balance. PXN rebounded to around 360+, and the valuation was not low. Attention should be paid to the capital changes [79][81] - Price difference: The spread between the PX outer and inner markets widened, the 3 - 5 month spread of PX was stable, and the TA05 processing fee was repaired to over 300 [82] Ethylene Glycol - Device changes: As of January 4, the total domestic load of ethylene glycol was 73.7%, and the coal - based load was 75.8%. The domestic maintenance volume changed little. Fude, Shenghong, and Sinochem Quanzhou were under maintenance. Henan Energy in Yongcheng was replacing the catalyst, Yankuang was under maintenance, and Huayi restarted. The new 200,000 - ton Ningxia Changyi device was in stable operation [99][104] - Import: Overseas device maintenance was not low. There were maintenance plans for two 720,000 - ton lines of Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China, two sets of 450,000 - ton and 700,000 - ton devices in Saudi Arabia, a 530,000 - ton device in Kuwait, and a 400,000 - ton device in Iran (planned to be maintained at the end of the month), and a 500,000 - ton device in Iran was under maintenance. The South Asian device in the United States was under maintenance, and GCGV was reducing its load. The arrivals from November to December were not low, with 580,000 tons imported in November and an estimated 700,000 tons in December. The arrivals from January to February might decrease [119] - Inventory: As of January 5, the port inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was about 725,000 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons month - on - month. The overall inventory was neutral. From December 29 to January 4, the expected arrival was about 106,000 tons, and the actual arrival was 83,000 tons. From January 4 to 11, the expected arrival was 178,000 tons, and the port inventory was expected to increase slightly. The raw material inventory days of polyester factories for ethylene glycol were 14.6 days, and the downstream inventory slightly increased [127] - Balance sheet: The overseas maintenance increased, the import expectation improved, providing support below. However, the arrivals were still high, and it was in the process of seasonal inventory accumulation, with limited upward driving force. In the short term, it was expected to fluctuate within a range [129][132]