Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Coking Coal**: The overall investment rating for coking coal is neutral. The sub - ratings are: neutral for the core view, neutral - bearish for the spot market, neutral for the warehouse receipt cost, neutral - bullish for the supply, neutral for the demand, neutral for the basis, and neutral - bullish for the inventory [3]. - **Coke**: The overall investment rating for coke is neutral. The sub - ratings are: neutral for the core view, neutral for the spot market, neutral - bearish for the warehouse receipt cost, neutral for the supply, neutral for the demand, neutral for the profit, and neutral for the inventory [4]. Core Views - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal market maintains a tight balance between supply and demand, but the fundamentals are clearly weakening. The spot market has weakened, with some pit - mouth prices decreasing. The supply side has seen a reduction in the impact of over - production checks, but some mines are still shut down due to working - face changes, keeping production at a low level. Mongolian coal has recovered to normal customs - clearance levels. The demand side shows that downstream buyers resist high prices, mainly pulling goods from previous orders with few new orders. The short - term price still has room for a correction [3]. - **Coke**: Six rounds of price increases for coke have been implemented, and the seventh round is still under negotiation. After the six - round increase, coke enterprises have overall made profits, and the coking operation rate remains relatively high, but some areas will implement production restrictions before the parade, with a limited expected impact. The demand side shows that the average daily hot - metal output of 247 steel mills is 240.7 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.3 tons, and steel mills have good profits. Currently, steel mills generally have enough coke, but top - charged coke is in short supply. Overall, the coke supply - demand relationship is tight, mainly following the fluctuations of raw coal [4]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Coking Coal Spot Market - The spot sentiment has significantly weakened due to the previous rapid price increase. Currently, there are more price cuts in auctions, and the auction failure rate has increased. Most pit - mouth quotes remain stable, with some prices decreasing by less than 50 yuan/ton. The price of low - sulfur prime coking coal in Anze, Shanxi, has dropped to 1480 (- 20) yuan/ton [3][8]. - Mongolian coal at the port is in short supply, and the price has declined following the futures market. The current port transaction price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal is around 1000 yuan/ton [14]. Warehouse Receipt Cost - The current lowest Mongolian coal warehouse receipt is around 1110 yuan/ton, with a slight premium on the 01 futures contract [31]. Supply - The coal - mine capacity utilization rate has declined, dropping to 85.37% last week, a week - on - week decrease of 0.42%. The Shanxi capacity utilization rate has decreased to 88.27%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.49%. After the over - production self - check stage ended on August 15, the impact of over - production checks has decreased in the short term, but some mines are shut down due to working - face changes. Mongolian coal customs - clearance has increased, but the overall supply remains tight [3][53]. Demand - Downstream buyers have a low acceptance of high - priced coal and mainly pull goods from previous orders [3]. Basis - The futures market has a slight premium [3]. Inventory - The upstream inventory is still low, but the inventory reduction has slowed down, and downstream enterprises have a weak willingness to replenish inventory [3]. Coke Spot Market - Six rounds of price increases for coke were implemented last week, with an increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton. The seventh - round price increase has been proposed but is still under negotiation. The quasi - first - grade coke price at Rizhao Port is 1470 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton [4][104]. Warehouse Receipt Cost - After the six - round price increase, the wet - quenching warehouse receipt cost for coke is 1575 yuan/ton [109]. Supply - Coke enterprises have made profits. Some coke enterprises in certain areas have received production - restriction notices, but since their operation rates were not high originally, the impact is limited [4]. Demand - The average daily hot - metal output of 247 steel mills is 240.7 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.3 tons. The blast - furnace operation rate of 247 steel mills is 83.59%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.16%. Steel mills have good profits, and the hot - metal output is expected to remain stable this week, with production restrictions expected during the parade week [4][119]. Profit - Coke enterprises generally made profits after the six - round price increase, but it is difficult to implement the seventh - round increase [4]. Inventory - Steel mills increased their inventory replenishment previously, but the inventory structure is unbalanced, mainly lacking top - charged coke [4]. Historical Data on Supply - Demand Balance Coking Coal - From 2024 - 2025, the production, import, consumption, and inventory of coking coal have shown certain fluctuations. For example, in 2025, the production decreased in some months, and the import volume also changed. The total consumption had a certain growth trend, and the inventory fluctuated accordingly [155]. Coke - From 2025, the production, import, export, consumption, and inventory of coke have also changed. The production showed a slight increase in some months and a decrease in others. The consumption also had corresponding fluctuations, and the inventory gradually increased [157].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel market is expected to oscillate. Recently, nickel supply has remained largely unchanged, but the 3.25% increase in domestic refined nickel inventory last week poses a significant negative impact on the fundamentals. Nickel prices are under pressure to decline but are also constrained by cost considerations and are unlikely to drop significantly. Attention should be paid to news disturbances from major producing countries and changes in macro - expectations, especially Indonesia's claim to crack down on illegal mining [3][4]. - The stainless - steel market is facing a situation where the upward momentum of the futures market is weak, and the market may fall into a stalemate again. Downstream enterprises are not very enthusiastic about purchasing and are mostly adopting a wait - and - see attitude. The recent market recovery is mainly supported by strong macro news, but the spot fundamentals have recovered poorly, and demand needs further release [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel Market - **Prices**: As of August 18, the CIF prices of Philippine laterite nickel ore at 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% remained unchanged from last week at $29, $57, and $78.5 per wet ton respectively. As of August 15, the ex - factory prices of Indonesian domestic trade nickel ore at Ni1.2% and Ni1.6% decreased by $0.3 and $0 respectively from last week to $24.5 and $52.3 per wet ton. The average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron as of August 18 increased by $7 per nickel point from last week to $926 per nickel point, a 0.76% increase [3][25]. - **Output**: As of July 2025, China's electrolytic nickel monthly output increased by 0.1 million tons to 3.28 million tons, a 3.14% increase. The national nickel pig iron output (metal content) decreased by 0.11 million tons to 2.45 million tons, a 0.59% decrease. In July 2025, Indonesia's nickel pig iron output decreased by 0.24 million tons to 13.44 million nickel tons, a 1.73% decrease [3][37][60]. - **Inventory**: As of August 15, the nickel ore port inventory increased by 6 million tons to 776 million wet tons, a 0.78% increase. Last week, the pure nickel social inventory (including the SHFE) increased by 1319 tons to 4.19 million tons, a 3.25% increase [27][39]. - **Profit**: As of August 12, the cash cost production profit margin of Fujian RKEF increased by 0.92 percentage points to - 9.36% [3]. Stainless - steel Market - **Output**: As of August 2025, the national stainless - steel crude steel output increased by 0.59% to 322.98 million tons, with the 300 - series output increasing by 0.01% to 169.83 million tons, the 200 - series output increasing by 2.76% to 96.7 million tons, and the 400 - series output decreasing by 1.26% to 56.45 million tons [70]. - **Inventory**: As of August 15, the stainless - steel social inventory decreased by 2.74 million tons to 107.89 million tons, a 2.48% decrease. As of August 18, the stainless - steel warehouse receipt quantity increased by 57 tons to 10.31 million tons, a 0.06% increase [74]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of August 18, the cash cost of Chinese 304 cold - rolled stainless - steel coils decreased by $30 per ton to $12995 per ton, a 0.23% decrease. The production profit margin of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils decreased by 0.34 percentage points to - 2.16% [78]. Sulfuric Acid Nickel Market - **Output**: As of July 2025, China's sulfuric acid nickel monthly output increased by 0.43 million tons to 2.91 million nickel tons, a 17.3% increase. Affected by the tight supply of raw materials, the supply of sulfuric acid nickel in the market is generally in a stable and weak state [49]. - **Profit**: As of August 18, the profit margins of producing sulfuric acid nickel from MHP, nickel beans, high - grade nickel matte, and yellow slag decreased by 0.2, increased by 1.3, increased by 0.3, and increased by 0.3 percentage points respectively from last week to - 1.6%, - 3.6%, 4.4%, and - 2.5% [55][56].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the oil industry is neutral according to the core view [4]. Group 2: Core View - Macroeconomically, after the release of US CPI and PPI data in July, the market restarted the interest - rate cut trading process. The report maintains that the inflation caused by tariffs is a "one - time shock", and there is still room for interest - rate cuts in the future, with stronger support at the lower boundary in Q3 and Q4. The volatility of crude oil remains low due to the low - volatility trends of US stocks, US bonds and other dollar - denominated assets [4]. - The Asian region's capacity to absorb increased Middle - Eastern oil production has slowed. The structure and monthly spreads are pricing in future supply surpluses. The impact of the Russia - US talks on Russian oil exports is mainly emotional, and future focus will return to Iran. The downstream sector maintains high operation rates, but with diesel weakening and refinery seasonal maintenance approaching, the spot discount is likely to narrow. The diesel fundamentals are not likely to see further significant contradictions, and future fundamental contradictions will return to the supply side [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog 1. Industry Factors - **OPEC Production**: OPEC increased production in September. The Russia - US talks have limited impact on Russian oil exports, with more of an emotional influence [5]. - **SPR**: The US SPR is replenishing at a rate of 30,000 - 50,000 barrels per day, mainly through slow and low - cost stockpiling [5]. - **Geopolitics & Sanctions**: The market is pricing in a negative outcome for the Russia - US meeting in Alaska. The meeting's possible results include a peace agreement (low probability), negotiation breakdown with intensified sanctions (supply disruption risk is limited), and a limited cease - fire or no agreement (highest probability, with a negative impact on structure and price) [5][15]. - **Shale Oil**: Last week's production was 1.333 million barrels per day, with the number of rigs remaining at 410. There is a downward trend in the number of rigs, which will gradually lead to a decrease in production [5]. 2. Macroeconomic Factors - **Macroeconomic Impact**: The release of US CPI and PPI data in July restarted the interest - rate cut trading process. The report believes that the impact of tariffs on prices is limited, and the direction of the impact is certain despite possible rhythm deviations [4][10]. - **Interest - Rate Cut Expectations**: The market's expectation for interest - rate cuts within the year has increased. The probability of a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut in September is over 90%, and there are expectations for two interest - rate cuts within the year (in September and October, 25 basis points each). The volatility of risk assets will remain low as market participants adapt to Trump's "TACO" mode [13]. 3. Supply - Demand Factors - **Supply**: The balance sheet shows the production and demand forecasts from 2024Q1 to 2026Q4, with adjustments made to some data. Overall, there are periods of supply surplus and deficit [6]. - **Demand**: Diesel cracking spreads have weakened, and the spot discount shows a marginal weakening trend. China's capacity to absorb increased oil production has slowed, and as refineries enter the seasonal maintenance period, the fundamental pressure on the market is emerging [5][16]. 4. Market Sentiment and Positioning - **WTI Positioning**: In the week of August 5th, WTI long positions decreased by 13,160 contracts, short positions increased by 2,887 contracts, and net long positions decreased by 16,050 contracts [46]. - **Brent Positioning**: In the week of August 5th, Brent long positions decreased by 23,680 contracts, short positions decreased by 4,125 contracts, and net long positions decreased by 19,560 contracts [50].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall investment rating is neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - For pure benzene, last week's supply increased with a new Jingbo plant producing products and no new device maintenance. August's supply is expected to continue rising. Imports are expected to decline in August as the US - Asia arbitrage window closed and the China - South Korea price difference is weak. In the short - term, demand may rise or remain stable due to the commissioning of Jingbo's styrene plant and high operating rates of caprolactam and aniline. In the long - run, demand may weaken due to weak downstream profits. Inventory is expected to decrease, and the current valuation is low [4]. - For styrene, last week's supply decreased. There were no new maintenance devices, but overall supply was high in August and may tighten in September due to multiple device overhauls. Downstream "Three S" comprehensive operating rates are weak, and demand is poor with high inventory. However, current downstream comprehensive profits are good, and short - term operating rates are expected to remain stable. Inventory is expected to continue increasing, and the valuation is neutral [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pure Benzene Supply - There are no new device overhauls, and the current operating rate is at a high level, so supply is expected to continue increasing. The restart of some devices and the commissioning of new ones are expected to increase August's output by 70,000 tons month - on - month, still facing great supply pressure [5][16]. Demand - Downstream overall operating rates are high. With the commissioning of the new downstream styrene plant, overall demand is expected to be good [5]. Inventory - Last week, the East China port inventory was 152,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10,000 tons. Overall, pure benzene supply and demand are both increasing, and subsequent inventory is expected to decrease [45]. Valuation - The BZN spread is weak, and the overall valuation of pure benzene is not high [45]. Month - to - Month Spread - Pure benzene is expected to see inventory reduction, and the paper - goods month - to - month spread structure has shifted to the B structure, with the spread likely to strengthen later [5]. Styrene Supply - New device commissioning is expected to increase August's supply, but it may contract in September due to more overhauls. Last week, the operating rate decreased, and overall supply declined. With the commissioning of Jingbo and the restart of overhauled devices, August's supply is expected to increase by about 48,000 tons month - on - month [5][61]. Demand - Downstream "Three S" operating rates remain stable but are weak. Overall downstream profits are good, and demand is expected to remain stable. Currently, the "Three S" are in the off - season, with certain demand resilience, but high inventory may lead to weaker demand later [5][94]. Inventory - Last week, the East China port inventory decreased to 150,500 tons, the South China port inventory increased to 14,500 tons, and the overall port inventory decreased to 165,000 tons. Overall, styrene inventory is expected to increase later [91][94]. Valuation - The BZ - SM spread has decreased significantly, and the styrene valuation is neutral [4]. Month - to - Month Spread - The pattern of strong supply and weak demand combined with improved long - term expectations is expected to maintain the C structure [5]. External Market Support - The US - Asia arbitrage window has been continuously closed. In the first 10 days of August, 38,725 tons of pure benzene were imported from South Korea, a significant month - on - month decrease compared to July and a year - on - year low [5]. Regional Market Conditions Pure Benzene - In North America, there is a large amount of pure benzene inventory due to advance stocking in anticipation of tariffs and poor downstream demand. In Western Europe, traditional downstream demand is sluggish, and pure benzene profits have deteriorated, with Brazilian pure benzene possibly being resold to Europe. In Asia, the US - Asia arbitrage window is closed, and China's pure benzene demand remains stable [50]. Styrene - In North America, the spot market is weak, sellers are reluctant to sell due to low profits, and tariffs have weakened styrene's export competitiveness. In Western Europe, supply is relatively stable, but demand is weak. In Asia, China's downstream demand is stable, while demand outside China remains weak, and styrene production is in the red. Southeast Asian overhauls in August may tighten supply. The US - Europe arbitrage window is open, and the US - Asia arbitrage window is closed [110].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Views High-Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Core View**: Neutral with a slight positive bias. Recent drivers are on the supply side. OPEC+ is expected to increase production by about 550,000 barrels per day. Chevron has regained the license to produce oil in Venezuela, and Venezuelan crude oil shipments to Asia have decreased. As the deadline for the US-Russia agreement approaches and Russian refineries are attacked, the high-sulfur price is relatively supported. Attention should be paid to recent high-sulfur spot procurement and digestion, as well as tariff sanctions and crude oil quotas [4]. - **Spread**: Neutral with a slight negative bias. Affected by tariff sanctions, as the US-Russia negotiation deadline approaches and Russian oil exports are blocked, the supply risk premium rises. The high-sulfur spread fluctuates at a high level of around -$3 per ton, weaker than last week [4]. - **Price Difference**: Neutral with a slight negative bias. The decline in international crude oil prices drags down the fuel oil price [4]. - **Supply**: Negative. The global total shipment is expected to be loose. Western arbitrage cargoes are arriving in Singapore successively, and the arrivals in Singapore are high, with still large inventory pressure [4]. - **Demand**: Neutral with a slight negative bias. The power generation demand is gradually weakening [4]. - **Inventory**: Neutral. Singapore's fuel oil has started to destock but remains at a high level [4]. Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Core View**: Neutral with a slight negative bias. OPEC+ continues to increase production, and the crude oil price weakens. In the short term, the low-sulfur fuel oil price is expected to fluctuate. The arrivals of low-sulfur fuel oil in Singapore in August are at a high level, and Kuwait's low-sulfur shipments are stable, with no obvious increase in low-sulfur supply. The low-sulfur market in China has sufficient supply, and the demand is dominated by rigid demand. The domestic marine fuel market is in a stalemate. In July, CNOOC's low-sulfur quota was exhausted, and the production scheduling expectations of Sinopec and PetroChina are weak. Attention should be paid to the recent adjustment or issuance of low-sulfur quotas [5]. - **Spread**: Neutral with a slight negative bias. Affected by tariff sanctions, as the US-Russia negotiation deadline approaches and Russian oil exports are blocked, the supply risk premium rises. The low-sulfur spread fluctuates slightly in the range of $8 - $9 per ton, slightly down from last week [5]. - **Price Difference**: Negative. The spot price difference of low-sulfur fuel oil is weak, and in the short term, it is under pressure. The price difference between high and low-sulfur fuel oils narrows [5]. - **Supply**: Neutral. The departures from Brazil in July and August are low. The early return of Dangote RFCC leads to a reduced expectation of low-sulfur supply. Continued attention should be paid to the arrivals [5]. - **Demand**: Neutral with a slight positive bias. The summer power generation demand for low-sulfur fuel oil is weakening, and the marine fuel demand is stable and improving, but due to sufficient supply, the bunkering profit is average [5]. - **Inventory**: Neutral. Singapore's fuel oil inventory remains at a high level [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Core Logic - **Russia**: In July, the offline refining capacity was adjusted upwards. From July to August, it reached the annual maintenance low, providing strong support for high-sulfur exports in the next three months. The offline primary refining capacity in August is expected to drop to 3.74 million tons (a month-on-month decrease of 260,000 tons). As of August 14, 2025, Russia's weekly high-sulfur exports are about 650,000 tons. The EU passed the 18th round of sanctions against Russia in July 2025, including a reduction in the Russian oil export price from $60 to $47.6 per barrel and a ban on new transactions of the Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines. The US imposed an additional 25% tariff on India, raising the tax rate to 50%. According to EA analysis, India may reduce its Russian crude oil imports to less than 1 million barrels per day [9]. - **Latin America**: As of August 10, 2025, the high-sulfur fuel oil exports from Latin America are about 270,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease. In July 2025, the crude oil processing volume of Mexican refineries increased slightly. On July 25, Chevron regained the license, and the crude oil flowing from Venezuela to Asia is expected to decrease. On August 7, 2025, a new coking unit of the Tula refinery started operation, with a residue processing capacity of 100,000 barrels per day. After the commissioning, the crude oil processing volume of Tula increased from the previous 150,000 tons per day to 170,000 barrels per day [11]. - **Middle East**: In July 2025, the high-sulfur fuel oil exports from the Middle East were 4.36 million tons, at a historical low for the same period. Saudi Arabia's high-sulfur fuel oil exports increased significantly to 210,000 tons in July (+34.5%), mainly shipped to Singapore, Malaysia, and South Asia. As of August 10, 2025, the floating storage of fuel oil in the Middle East increased slightly to 1.17 million tons (+140,000 tons). The power generation demand in July was not high. The tension in the Israel-Iran conflict has subsided, and there are no new variables in the high-sulfur fuel oil exports from the Middle East. The large-scale maintenance of Middle East refineries has ended, and the maintenance capacity of refineries in July was between 12.6 million and 18.9 million tons [14]. - **Singapore**: As of August 10, 2025, the floating storage of high-sulfur fuel oil in the Pan-Singapore region is about 1.18 million tons (a month-on-month increase of 60,000 tons), at a high level. This week, the arrivals of fuel oil in Singapore are 675,000 tons (a month-on-month increase of 100,000 tons), mainly from Russia and the Middle East. The departures are 100,000 tons (a month-on-month increase of 60,000 tons), mainly flowing to China and Southeast Asia [19][22]. - **China**: Shandong Province is piloting an increase in the tax refund amount for some independent refineries' fuel oil, and the expected increase in the fuel oil consumption tax deduction ratio is 25%, leading to a decline in the feedstock cost of fuel oil. Under the tax reform pilot, China's high-sulfur fuel oil imports rebounded from the low in May. The imports in June were about 1.05 million tons, and in July about 700,000 tons. As of August 10, 2025, the imports of high-sulfur fuel oil in China are about 390,000 tons (a month-on-month decrease of 140,000 tons) [37]. Inventory - As of August 15, 2025, the inventory in Singapore is 3.88 million tons (a month-on-month decrease of 260,000 tons), in the US 3.1 million tons (a month-on-month decrease of 10,000 tons), in Fujairah 1.16 million tons (a month-on-month decrease of 360,000 tons), in ARA 1.03 million tons (stable), and in Zhoushan 1.18 million tons (a decrease of 60,000 tons). As of August 14, 2025, the total fuel oil warehouse receipts are 80,710 tons (Yangshan Petroleum -5,000 tons, Sinochem Xingzhong -7,000 tons), and the total low-sulfur fuel oil warehouse receipts are 16,080 tons (Yangshan Petroleum -4,970 tons) [92][94][97].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - As of August 12, RU and NR prices rose, the RU - NR spread widened, and the RU09 - 01 spread widened [4]. - In the short - term, RU is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend due to factors such as typhoons affecting the Yunnan main production area, tight raw material supply, rising glue prices, and a slight reduction in light - colored rubber inventory. NR is expected to have a wide - range fluctuation as the Vietnam production area is affected by heavy rainfall, the Thai cup - lump price rises, dark - colored rubber inventory decreases slightly, tire开工率 remains stable, but overseas demand is expected to decline, and domestic demand awaits the "Golden September and Silver October" [4]. - In the long - term, both RU and NR are considered neutral - bearish [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overseas Supply - The Vietnam production area is disturbed by heavy rainfall, and the overseas export volume is lower than the annual average [5]. - As of August 13, the Thai glue price remained stable at 54 Thai baht/kg, and the Thai cup - lump price was 49.3 Thai baht/kg, up 1.5 Thai baht/kg from the previous week [18][17]. - Compared with previous years, the phenological conditions are normal. Without extreme weather disturbances, the overseas main production areas will continue to increase production, with strong supply. ANRPC predicts that the global natural rubber production in 2025 will increase by 0.5% year - on - year to 14.892 million tons, with different growth rates in different countries [36]. - The export volume of overseas main production areas is lower than the average level of previous years [38]. Domestic Supply - Typhoon "Yangliu" is moving westward and strengthening, and the Yunnan production area in China continues to be affected by rainfall [53]. - As of August 12, the Yunnan glue price was 14,300 yuan/ton, up 800 yuan/ton from the previous week; the Yunnan rubber block price was 13,300 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of August 13, the Hainan glue price for concentrated latex factories was 14,400 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan/ton from the previous week; the Hainan glue price for whole - latex factories was 13,400 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton from the previous week [59]. - As of August 8, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 619,900 tons, down 11,900 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 1.89%. The bonded area inventory was 75,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24%; the general trade inventory was 544,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.11%. The inventory in Qingdao continued to decline [67]. Tire - As of August 7, the operating rate of Chinese tire enterprises' all - steel tires was 61.00%, down 0.08% from the previous week. In July 2025, the monthly inventory of Chinese all - steel tire enterprises was 10.51 million pieces, down 250,000 pieces from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 2.32% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.63% [81][79]. - As of August 7, the operating rate of Chinese tire enterprises' semi - steel tires was 74.35%, down 0.10% from the previous week. In July 2025, the monthly inventory of Chinese semi - steel tire enterprises was 19.2 million pieces, down 360,000 pieces from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 1.91% and a year - on - year increase of 27.66% [89]. Price and Spread - As of August 12, the Shanghai Vietnam 3L price was 14,850 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton from the previous week; the Shanghai state - owned whole - latex price was 14,750 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton from the previous week; the Shanghai RSS3 price was 19,850 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous week [97]. - As of August 12, the RU - NR spread was 3,195 yuan/ton, and it is expected to continue to widen [109]. - As of August 12, the Thai mixed spot - RU main contract spread was - 1,260 yuan/ton, down 1,015 yuan/ton from the previous week; the Thai mixed spot - NR main contract spread was 288.55 yuan/ton, down 112.45 yuan/ton from the previous week; the Thai standard spot - NR main contract spread was 360.1 yuan/ton, down 54.7 yuan/ton from the previous week [124]. - As of August 12, the RU09 - 01 spread was - 1,025 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton from the previous week; the RU01 - 05 spread was - 90 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous week; the NR consecutive one - consecutive two spread was - 60 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous week; the NR consecutive two - consecutive three spread was - 45 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous week [134].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for the urea industry is neutral, with various aspects such as supply, demand, policy, etc., also rated as neutral, indicating a balanced outlook in the short - term [3]. 2. Core Viewpoints - In terms of supply, summer maintenance is recovering, and production has stabilized, being higher than the historical average. Although the Indian tender price is high, China has not participated. The compound fertilizer operating rate has slightly declined, the progress of autumn fertilizer is slow, and industrial demand is tepid. Overall, short - term domestic supply and demand are weak, and attention should be paid to changes in export policies [3]. - The current monthly spread is low, and opportunities for the spread to strengthen can be considered when it is at a low level [3]. - There is no news of further liberalization of exports for now [3]. - Supply has stabilized while demand remains weak. Traders are adopting a wait - and - see attitude, spot trading is weak, and prices are falling, but the situation of low - price orders has improved recently [3]. - Enterprise inventories have slightly increased, and port inventories have slightly decreased. Some enterprises have reduced their order - receiving prices under pressure [3]. - International prices remain high, and potential export profits are still at an absolute high. India's tender price exceeds $530 per ton, but China has not directly participated, and attention should be paid to subsequent export policy changes [3]. - The progress of autumn fertilizer in compound fertilizer enterprises is slow, and the operating rate has begun to decline. Attention should be paid to the growth progress of autumn fertilizer demand in September. The price of melamine has rebounded significantly, but demand is still significantly weak, and the sustainability of the price increase remains to be observed [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Price - This week, the supply - demand situation of urea remained relatively loose. Some enterprises completed maintenance, and production stabilized. Supply was significantly higher than the same period last year, agricultural demand decreased significantly, the compound fertilizer operating rate stopped increasing, and exports were not further liberalized. Indian tender prices were as high as $530 per ton, but China did not participate. Enterprise inventories increased again, forcing enterprises to lower prices. A few low - price enterprises saw an improvement in order - receiving, and the recent decline may be limited [10]. - Ammonium chloride prices remained stable, and the operating rate changed little recently. The demand side mainly executed previous orders. Affected by the weakening of urea prices, market purchasing power was weak, and most traders were waiting and watching [14]. - The ammonium sulfate market had few transactions, and the current supply - demand relationship was still relatively loose. The operating rate of the caprolactam plant increased to 93.48%. With the preliminary reduction of the Shanxi Yangmei plant, the subsequent operating rate may be slightly reduced. After several rounds of price increases, coke enterprises' product profits recovered, and the operating rate increased slightly. Overall, ammonium sulfate supply was slightly stronger [14]. - Current export profits continue to remain high, but there is still no news of new export quota releases, and potential export demand cannot be freely released [33]. Operating Rate - Coal - based profits are still good. The operating rate during summer maintenance remains relatively low but is still at a high level over the years. According to Longzhong Information statistics, some enterprises are under maintenance this period, and some are resuming production. Next week, some enterprises plan to stop production, and the overall operating rate will not change much [43]. Inventory - This week, enterprise inventories slightly increased. Domestic demand entered the off - season, and the compound fertilizer operating rate was also blocked from rising. Enterprises had relatively difficulty in receiving orders [54]. - This week, port inventories slightly decreased, with little change. Large - granular urea at Yantai Port left the port successively. There was a small amount of large - granular urea being shipped to Longkou Port, Jinzhou Port, and Rizhao Port, and small - granular urea was shipped to Longkou Port, Qinhuangdao Port, and Zhenjiang Port. Most ports had both departure and arrival of goods [54]. Profit - Coal prices have continued to rise slightly, increasing the cost of coal - based urea production [63]. - As urea prices fluctuate at a low level, the profit of gas - based urea production has almost disappeared [78]. Export - Exports currently remain in the same state as before, with no news of further liberalization. After domestic prices weakened, potential export profits still remained extremely high. Although domestic supply and demand are relatively loose, attention should be paid to the impact of changes in export demand caused by export policy changes [83]. Domestic Demand - Urea prices weakened, while phosphate and potash fertilizer prices were relatively firm. The overall cost of compound fertilizer changed little. The arrival of autumn wheat fertilizer in Henan and other places was slow, and it is expected to have large - scale shipments in September. Attention should be paid to changes in autumn fertilizer demand [94]. - The progress of autumn fertilizer sales was slow, and the output of compound fertilizer slightly decreased [97]. - The price of melamine rebounded significantly, mainly due to an increase in enterprise maintenance. The operating rate has decreased significantly recently. As of August 14, the melamine capacity utilization rate was around 44.25%, and some enterprises still have device maintenance plans from September to October. However, there are still no signs of substantial recovery on the demand side. The output of panel furniture is weak, and the demand for melamine impregnated paper grows slowly. The sustainability of the subsequent melamine price increase still depends on demand changes [108]. Raw Materials - Recently, coal demand has remained high, supply has slightly decreased, and prices have continued to rise slightly. Due to the increase in new energy power generation squeezing thermal power demand and the relatively high inventory of power plants, the upward space for coal prices remains to be observed [142]. - The supply - demand situation of synthetic ammonia has recently weakened significantly. After the completion of maintenance in the north, production has increased significantly again, while downstream demand remains tepid. Ammonia enterprises' inventory pressure has rapidly increased, and prices are under pressure to decline [151]. Futures and Basis - Recently, the number of warehouse receipts is significantly higher than the historical average, and enterprises have a strong willingness to deliver goods [181]. Balance Sheet - The balance sheet shows the total supply, production, import, total demand, and surplus of urea from September 2024 to December 2025. In the recent period, the export volume of compound fertilizer has increased significantly, slightly increasing the demand for compound fertilizer [185][187].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of nickel have changed relatively little, but the expectation of oversupply remains. Nickel prices are temporarily fluctuating in line with macro - sentiment. This week, the price of nickel ore has slightly declined, the arrival volume of nickel ore has increased, and domestic port inventories are showing a tendency to accumulate. On the smelting side, the production of refined nickel is running smoothly, the loss of ferronickel plants has narrowed, and the supply remains at a low level [3]. - In the short term, the supply of tin is relatively sufficient, and the market recovery is mainly supported by macro - news. The supply of nickel ore in the third quarter is expected to be relatively abundant, and the price of Philippine nickel ore may be weak. The price of Indonesian domestic trade nickel ore has rebounded in the first half of August, and the supply is expected to increase. The price of NPI has continued to rise this week, and the supply - demand pattern of nickel sulfate remains tight [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel - **Price and Cost**: As of August 11, the CIF prices of Philippine laterite nickel ore with 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% nickel content decreased by 0, 1, and 1 US dollars per wet ton respectively compared to last week, reaching 29, 57, and 78.5 US dollars per wet ton. The domestic trade nickel ore prices of Ni1.2% and Ni1.6% in Indonesia increased by 0 and 0.2 US dollars per wet ton respectively to 24.8 and 52.3 US dollars per wet ton as of August 8. The freight rates from the Philippines to Tianjin Port and Lianyungang decreased by 0.5 US dollars per wet ton to 12 and 11 US dollars per wet ton respectively last week. The average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased by 5 yuan per nickel point to 919 yuan per nickel point as of August 11, a 0.55% increase [3][27]. - **Production and Inventory**: As of July 2025, China's electrolytic nickel monthly production increased by 0.1 million tons to 3.28 million tons, a 3.14% increase. The national nickel pig iron production (metal content) decreased by 0.11 million tons to 2.45 million tons, a 0.59% decrease. As of August 12, the LME nickel warehouse receipts increased by 492 tons to 211,700 tons, a 0.23% increase. The pure nickel social inventory (including the SHFE) increased by 1,086 tons to 40,600 tons, a 2.75% increase [3][41]. - **Profitability**: As of August 12, the cash - cost production profit margin of RKEF in Fujian increased by 0.97 percentage points to - 9.8% [3]. Tin - **Monthly Balance Sheet**: The report provides a monthly balance sheet for tin from January to December 2025, including data on total production, imports, exports, total consumption, surplus, year - on - year supply and consumption changes, and cumulative year - on - year supply and consumption changes [4]. Refined Nickel - **Device Operation**: As of August 12, 2025, domestic electrolytic nickel plants in regions such as Gansu, Xinjiang, and Jilin are operating stably, while some plants in Zhejiang are operating at reduced loads or are temporarily shut down [36]. - **Production and Trade**: As of July 2025, China's electrolytic nickel monthly production increased by 0.1 million tons to 3.28 million tons, a 3.14% increase. As of June 2025, China's refined nickel monthly exports decreased by 27.41% to 10,100 tons, and imports decreased by 3.0% to 17,000 tons [38]. - **Inventory**: As of August 12, SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 230 tons to 20,700 tons, a 1.10% decrease. LME nickel warehouse receipts increased by 492 tons to 211,700 tons, a 0.23% increase. The pure nickel social inventory (including the SHFE) increased by 1,086 tons to 40,600 tons, a 2.75% increase [41]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of July 2025, the average production cost of SMM electrolytic nickel increased by 70 US dollars per ton to 13,095 US dollars per ton, a 0.54% increase. The production profit margins of integrated MHP and high - grade nickel matte for producing electrowon nickel increased by 3.7 and 2.2 percentage points respectively to 2.3% and - 4.7% [46]. Nickel Sulfate - **Device Operation**: Nickel sulfate plants in regions such as Jilin, Gansu, and Guangdong are operating stably, while some plants in Guangxi, Tianjin, and Jiangxi are operating at reduced loads or are shut down [52][56]. - **Production and Trade**: As of July 2025, China's nickel sulfate monthly production increased by 0.43 million tons to 2.91 million nickel tons, a 17.3% increase. As of June 2025, China's nickel sulfate monthly imports decreased by 27.35% to 13,300 tons, and exports increased by 3.66% to 782.1 tons [55]. - **Cost and Profit**: Recently, the spot cost of nickel salts has increased, and nickel salt plants are continuing to hold prices. As of August 12, the profit margins of MHP, nickel beans, high - grade nickel matte, and yellow slag for producing nickel sulfate decreased by 1.1, 0.9, 0.7, and 0.7 percentage points respectively to - 2.1%, - 5.2%, 3.3%, and - 3% [60]. Ferronickel - **Device Operation**: Ferronickel plants in Shandong, Jiangsu, and other regions are operating at reduced loads or are shut down for maintenance [68]. - **Production and Inventory**: As of July 2025, the national ferronickel production (metal content) decreased by 0.11 million tons to 2.45 million tons, a 0.59% decrease. As of July 31, the national main - region ferronickel inventory increased by 182 tons to 33,400 nickel tons, a 0.55% increase [70][76]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of August 12, the cash - cost production profit margin of RKEF in Fujian increased by 0.97 percentage points to - 9.8% [76]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Market**: Last week, the stainless - steel futures main contract ss2509 increased by 1.13%. As of August 12, the price of 304/2B coil - rough edge in Wuxi increased by 250 yuan per ton to 13,250 yuan per ton, a 1.92% increase [79]. - **Inventory**: As of August 8, stainless - steel social inventory decreased by 0.49 million tons to 1.1063 million tons, a 0.44% decrease. As of August 12, the stainless - steel warehouse receipt quantity increased by 1,075 tons to 103,900 tons, a 1.05% increase [82]. - **Production and Trade**: As of August 2025, the national stainless - steel crude - steel production increased by 0.59% to 3.2298 million tons. As of June 2025, China's stainless - steel monthly imports decreased by 12.48% to 109,500 tons, and exports decreased by 10.63% to 390,000 tons [85]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of August 12, the cash cost of 304 cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in China decreased by 22 yuan per ton to 13,026 yuan per ton, a 0.16% decrease. The profit margin of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils increased by 2.02 percentage points to - 1.46% [89].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the palm oil industry is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - The under - expected palm oil production in both Malaysia and Indonesia has supported the price increase of palm oil, but attention should be paid to whether the export demand can sustain the current price [4] - As of August 8, 2025, South American soybean prices strengthened on a weekly basis, while those in the US Gulf were weak, and rapeseed prices in many regions declined [7] - As of August 8, 2025, Argentine soybean oil prices dropped by over $50/ton on a weekly basis, and US Gulf soybean oil prices fell by $41/ton, while Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil prices rose slightly [10] Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - side Information - In July, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 7.09% month - on - month to 1.812417 million tons, lower than the institutional estimate of 1.83 million tons. Exports increased by 3.82% month - on - month to 1.31 million tons, higher than the estimate of 1.3 million tons. End - of - July inventory reached 2.11 million tons, lower than the estimate of 2.23 - 2.25 million tons [3] - In July, rainfall in many parts of Malaysia was lower than normal, and the oil extraction rate of palm fruit decreased instead of increasing [3] Price Information - The price difference between Argentine soybean oil and Indonesian crude palm oil was - $10/ton, compared with $51.5/ton the previous week, lower than the historical average of $124.4/ton [19] - The price difference between Indian port soybean oil and crude palm oil was $28/ton, lower than $67/ton the previous week. The price difference between crude sunflower oil and crude palm oil was $18/ton, compared with $115/ton the previous week. The price difference between refined soybean oil and refined palm oil was $23/ton, compared with $54/ton the previous week [24] Purchase and Demand Information - There were no reports of palm oil purchases last week [26] - Last week, domestic buyers purchased 3000 tons each of Dubai rapeseed oil for the October/November shipment, and there were rumors that domestic oil mills purchased rapeseed for the September shipment [33] - Last week, far - month soybean oil transactions remained high, especially against the backdrop of domestic non - procurement of US soybeans [127] Profit and Margin Information - Subsidies decreased, and processing and blending losses increased [120] - European RME prices weakened, but European rapeseed oil prices declined more, and RME processing profit remained at the average level [123] - Palm oil and rapeseed oil basis were stable, while soybean oil basis weakened again [131] Balance Sheet Information - The report provides monthly balance sheets for various oils, including overall oils, rapeseed oil, and palm oil, covering data from 2024 to 2025, showing information on beginning inventory, production, imports, total supply, exports, demand, end - inventory, inventory changes, inventory - to - consumption ratios, and surplus amounts [146]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of iron ore has recovered, the demand remains high, and although the downstream profits have weakened slightly, they are still at a high level. Iron ore may continue to fluctuate. The monthly spread may remain volatile in the short - term, and the basis of the 09 contract has declined slightly with a weaker basis rate. The short - term demand for iron ore still shows resilience, and the inventory has increased overall. [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Differences - The premium of Jinbuba powder has declined; the premiums of mainstream medium - and low - grade ores are stable; the price difference between domestic and foreign ores is stable. [5] 3.2 Weekly Review Supply - Globally, the shipping volume has declined again. The shipments from Australia and Brazil have weakened significantly, while the shipments from non - mainstream regions have stabilized and rebounded. The arrival volume has generally increased. According to Reuters, on August 4, 2025, the 7 - day moving average shipping volume of global iron ore (excluding mainland China) was 5760 thousand tons, with a week - on - week increase of 25% and a year - on - year increase of 2.75%. The 7 - day moving average shipping volume from Australia was 2235 thousand tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 12% and a year - on - year increase of 2.05%. The 7 - day moving average shipping volume from Brazil was 1408 thousand tons, with a week - on - week increase of 40.6% and a year - on - year increase of 15.9%. [6][27] Demand - The iron water production has decreased slightly, with the 247 - sample daily average iron water production decreasing by 0.49 tons week - on - week to 240.32 tons, and the average daily iron water production in August being about 241 tons. The profitability rate of steel mills has increased. The weekly production of five major steel products has slightly increased, the profit of finished products has slightly decreased, the demand for rebar has rebounded, and the consumption of hot - rolled coils has declined. [6][106][132] Inventory - The inventory of 45 ports has increased by 620 thousand tons, and the proportion of traded ores is 65.48%. The total inventory of imported ores in steel mills has increased by 1.24 thousand tons, the on - site inventory has increased by 23.8 thousand tons, and the sum of sea - floating and port inventories has decreased by 22.7 thousand tons. The available days of imported ores have decreased by 1 day to 20 days. The inventory of rebar has slightly increased, the inventory of billets has continued to rise, and the inventory of hot - rolled coils has rebounded. [6][150][159] Price - The spot trading volume of iron ore has increased slightly, while the trading volume of forward contracts has declined from a high level. The basis rate of the 09 contract is about 0.4%, the basis has decreased slightly, and the basis rate has weakened. The prices of various iron ore varieties have shown different trends, and the import profits of mainstream varieties have declined oscillatingly. [6][125][181] 3.3 Weather - The precipitation in Brazil is scarce, and the overall precipitation has increased slightly. [7][8] 3.4 Balance Sheet - According to the recent shipping and arrival situation of iron ore, the supply forecast of iron ore has been slightly lowered. The total supply, consumption, surplus volume, and cumulative year - on - year changes of iron ore from September 2024 to December 2025 are presented in the balance sheet. For example, in August 2025, the total supply is 13167, the total consumption is 12261, and the surplus volume is 906. [186][187]