Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trading logic of the aluminum market has deviated from fundamentals, with the focus on factors like the US dollar, liquidity, and precious metals. Despite some marginal changes in supply, the long - term growth logic of aluminum remains unchanged, but it is experiencing a short - term correction [4]. - The report上调s the 2026 overseas and domestic electrolytic aluminum production forecasts. However, the market is more sensitive to supply cuts than increases, and the long - term bullish view on aluminum as a hedging asset and its connection to new energy and the new economy persists [4]. - For the short - term market, it is advisable to wait for volatility to subside before making trading decisions [4]. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs 1. Week - on - Week Changes and Outlook - Since the beginning of the year, the aluminum price trend has been highly synchronized with volatility, and the trading logic has deviated from aluminum fundamentals. The focus is on the US dollar, liquidity, and precious metals [4]. - There have been marginal changes in the supply side at home and abroad, including the restart of production at some aluminum plants. The report上调s the 2026 electrolytic aluminum production forecasts for both overseas and domestic markets [4]. - The short - term decline in the number of receiving manufacturers is due to high prices screening out less - resilient downstream buyers. The market is more sensitive to supply cuts than increases [4]. - The short - term view is to wait for the volatility to stabilize before trading [4]. 2. Latest Production Launch Tables of Domestic and Overseas Aluminum Plants - **Overseas**: The production expectations of three overseas plants have been revised upwards. The Lista aluminum plant in the US has restarted 31,000 tons of idle capacity after renewing its power contract. The expected restart time of the Grundartangi aluminum plant in Iceland has been advanced, and the Mozal aluminum plant in Mozambique is expected to have a partial production cut instead of a complete shutdown [7]. - **Domestic**: A northeast domestic aluminum plant with a built - in capacity of 752,500 tons and a current operating capacity of 420,000 tons plans to restart about 300,000 tons of idle capacity in mid - to - late March [7]. 3. Overseas Aluminum Plant Power Contract Progress - The power contract of the US Lista aluminum plant has been renewed to 2035, and it restarted 31,000 tons of idle capacity in January 2026. Other plants also have different power contract situations and production statuses [9]. 4. Overseas Aluminum Plant Production Launch Schedule - In 2026 and the long - term, there are various production - related activities overseas, including new construction, expansion, and restart of production at different aluminum plants. The annual total planned new production capacity in 2026 is 1.7355 million tons [10]. 5. Expected Table of New Domestic Electrolytic Aluminum Projects in 2026 - There are different types of projects in China, such as replacement, expansion, and production restart. The total new production capacity in 2026 is expected to be 1.127 million tons, with limited net - increase capacity from replacement projects [13]. 6. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets at Home and Abroad - The report上调s the 2026 overseas and domestic electrolytic aluminum net - increase production forecasts by 120,000 tons and 195,000 tons respectively. The supply - demand balance shows a slight deficit in 2026 [16]. - The long - term growth logic of aluminum remains unchanged, and the market should tolerate short - term corrections [16]. 7. Cost and Profit - Alumina prices have been falling since mid - 2025, which is one of the reasons for the increased profits of aluminum plants. Electricity prices and pre - baked anodes are in a range - bound state [22]. - The average profit of electrolytic aluminum has dropped from about 8,700 yuan/ton last week to 7,000 yuan/ton this week, and the average cost has slightly increased to 16,200 yuan/ton due to a 0.01 - yuan/degree increase in electricity prices [26]. 8. Internal - External Price Ratio - The Shanghai - London ratio has fluctuated. After rising to a phased high on January 7, it has declined. The LME aluminum price led the decline, and the domestic market followed. The internal - external price ratio is currently range - bound [31]. - The overseas spot premiums in North America and Japan have increased week - on - week [31]. 9. Downstream and Inventory - The downstream operating rate is at a seasonal low, especially for aluminum sheets, foils, and strips. It is expected to recover after the holiday [45]. - As of Thursday, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum has increased, while the LME aluminum inventory has decreased. The social inventory of aluminum rods has also increased [48]. - The processing fee of aluminum rods has fluctuated after reaching a high this week [54].

| 铁矿石 | 解析 | | --- | --- | | 周度评述 | 供应端全球发运量稳中有升，澳洲和巴西发运量回升，同比偏高；非主流地区发运同比偏高，到港量总量回升。需求端，成材利润平稳， 废铁价差略升，247样本日均铁水环比-0.1万吨至228万吨，近期检修一般，铁水近期或维持窄幅波动。库存端，45港库存环比+255万吨， | | | 厂库增180万吨，总量环比增长。五大材产量周产略增，总库存继续上行，分品种看螺纹库存回升，热卷库存持续下滑。观点：供给企 | | | 稳回升，下游利润平稳，铁水窄幅波动，下游需求尚可，短期供需宽松，厂库快速上行，铁矿或偏弱震荡。 | | 月差 | 月差短期内或维持震荡。 | | 现货 | 铁矿现货成交量平稳和远期货成交量平稳，05合约基差率3.6%左右，基差基本平稳，基差率小幅回升。 | | 铁水 | 本周钢联公布247样本铁水产量228万吨，环比-0.1万吨，1月日均铁水约228万吨，需求企稳。 | | 库存 | 45港库存环比增255万吨，贸易矿占比66%。钢厂进口矿总库存增579.8万吨，厂库增180万吨，海漂+港口增400万吨；进口矿可用天数回 升4天至27天。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the PVC industry is neutral [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamental situation shows that PVC is operating at a high level of production, while the price of caustic soda is falling, leading to a relatively high overall loss. Starting from April, the export tax - rebate will be cancelled, resulting in a rush to export in the short - term, a rise in export quotes, and an increase in the volume of exports awaiting delivery. Against the backdrop of undervaluation, PVC is highly favored. It's a battle between bulls and bears, and it's time to wait for an opportunity to short unilaterally [3] - In the context of the export rush, the near - month contract may be in a positive spread pattern relative to the far - month contract [3] - The overall macro - environment is volatile [3] 3. Summary by Directory Raw Materials Lanthanum Coke - Lanthanum coke production remained stable, with the sample enterprise production rate at 57.11%, the same as last week [6] - Lanthanum coke prices declined. The price of Shenmu medium - grade coke dropped to 785 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan from last week [6] Calcium Carbide - Calcium carbide supply slightly increased. The production rate rose 0.03 percentage points to 72.12%, and the overall production level was relatively low [12] - Calcium carbide prices increased. The price of Wuhai calcium carbide reached 2,550 yuan/ton, a rise of 100 yuan from last week [12] PVC Production - This week, the overall production rate of PVC powder was 77.13%, a 0.85 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week. Among them, the production rate of calcium - carbide - method PVC powder was 79.98%, a 0.16 - percentage - point decrease, and the production rate of ethylene - method PVC powder was 70.61%, a 2.43 - percentage - point decrease [16] PVC Downstream Demand - Downstream production remained stable. The production rate of pipes was 37.0%, and that of profiles was 31.52%, the same as last week. Both were lower than the same period last year [26] PVC Inventory - Social inventory increased. The total social inventory was 1.0682 million tons, an increase of 17,900 tons from the previous period. Among them, the inventory in East China samples was 1.0195 million tons, an increase of 18,100 tons, and the inventory in South China samples was 48,700 tons, a decrease of 200 tons [34][35] - Upstream factory inventory decreased. The factory inventory was 233,200 tons, a decrease of 15,300 tons from the previous period. The overall industrial chain inventory increased [38] PVC Profit - The loss of calcium - carbide - integrated production narrowed. The profit of Xinjiang integrated production was - 822 yuan/ton, and that of Northwest integrated production was - 1,185 yuan/ton [51] - The loss of calcium - carbide - purchased production was significant. The profit of Northwest calcium - carbide - purchased production was - 792 yuan/ton, and that of North China calcium - carbide - purchased production was - 995 yuan/ton [51] - The profit of ethylene - purchased production slightly recovered. The profit of East China ethylene - purchased production was 399 yuan/ton, and that of North China was 549 yuan/ton. Against the backdrop of the cancellation of export tax - rebates, the price difference between ethylene and calcium carbide will widen [54] - The comprehensive profit increased. The comprehensive profit in the Northwest was - 313 yuan/ton, and that in Shandong was - 1,025 yuan/ton. The double - ton price difference was at a historical low, rising to 2,242 yuan/ton [62] Import and Export - From January to December, PVC powder exports increased year - on - year. The annual export volume was 382,300 tons, a 46.05% increase. In December, exports were strong, with an export volume of 31,410 tons, an increase of 3,880 tons from the previous month. The import volume of PVC powder from January to December was 22,660 tons, basically the same as last year [67][68] - From January to December, the cumulative export of PVC flooring was 415,500 tons, a 12.3% decrease year - on - year [73] Related Commodities - Since 2024, real - estate demand has continued to weaken, cement prices have declined, and the production rate has remained low [77] Futures and Spot Analysis - The futures market fluctuated upwards. The 05 contract rose from 4,911 last week to 5,071 [86] - The spread between the 5 - month and 9 - month contracts remained stable at - 117 [86] - The number of registered warehouse receipts was high. On February 2, the number of warehouse receipts was 95,090, a decrease of 5,410 from the previous week [86] PVC Balance Sheet - The balance sheet shows the estimated monthly production, demand, import, and other data from 2026/1 to 2026/12, as well as the year - on - year and cumulative year - on - year changes in production and demand [88]

铜铜铜 2 0 2 6 / 2 / 3 铜铜铜铜铜铜铜 作者：刘诗瑶 联系人：周小鸥 从业资格证号：F3041949 从业资格证号：F03093454 交易咨询证号：Z0019385 邮箱：zhouxiaoou@zjtfqh.com 邮箱：liushiyao@zjtfqh.com 审核：李文涛 交易咨询证号：Z0015640 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 本周观点 ◼ 上周，铜价冲高回落，盘间LME与沪期铜持续刷新历史新高，但随后在金银的带动下快速回落。LME高位14527.5美元/吨，沪期铜最高触及114320元/吨，随后快速下跌，符合我们多 杀多的预期。本周初来看，有色板块在贵金属下跌的带动下维持弱势，但低位产业链点价异常积极。周一收盘，铜价已回落至1月初水平。从分品种看，由于基本面的优良，铜铝两 品种也依然在本轮下跌中表现抗跌。 ◼ 上周五，伦敦金大跌9%，伦敦银大跌26%，美元指数大涨1%，而在本周初日盘贵金属及有色持续大跌。要弄懂本轮贵金属及有色的下跌，我们先要知道为何会出现之前的上涨。不少 传统分析给到的理由都是避险、央行配置以及美国经济的再通胀。与此同时，白银涨幅超过黄金，锡、镍等品种关 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The core view of coking coal is that it will fluctuate. The spot market transactions are fair, and the mine - end quotes are relatively stable. The supply is expected to shrink before the Spring Festival, and the demand side maintains on - demand procurement. The supply pressure is still high, and it may maintain range - bound fluctuations [4]. - The core view of coke is also that it will fluctuate. The first - round price increase of coke has been implemented. The supply side has stable production, and the demand side has limited driving force. Before the Spring Festival, it mainly follows the weakening of raw coal [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal Spot Market - The spot market transactions are fair, with an increasing online auction non - sale rate. Mines are mainly transporting pre - sold orders. The price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Anze, Shanxi remains at a high of 1,640 yuan/ton, and that of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Jinzhong is 1,400 yuan/ton, both unchanged week - on - week [10]. - The actual transactions of Mongolian coal are light, with downstream buyers mainly bargaining for lower prices and having a low acceptance of high prices. The price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal is stable at 1,030 - 1,040 yuan/ton [13]. - The import profit of Australian coking coal remains inverted [15]. Spread - The calculated warehouse - receipt price of Mongolian coal is about 1,170 yuan/ton, and that of medium - sulfur coal in Shanxi is about 1,300 yuan/ton. The futures price has risen to a premium range [34]. Supply - The coal mine capacity utilization rate has rebounded to 87.3%, a week - on - week increase of 1%. As the Spring Festival approaches, coal mines mainly focus on safe and stable production and will gradually arrange holidays [47]. - The weekly average daily customs clearance of Ganqimaodu Port last week was 1,329 vehicles. The customs clearance of Mongolian coal was briefly disturbed this week but has now returned to a high level [4]. Inventory - Upstream mines have few new orders, and downstream buyers maintain on - demand procurement, with relatively sufficient inventory [4]. Coke Spot Market - The first - round price increase of coke has been implemented. The price of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port is 1,470 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. The price of quasi - first - grade dry - quenched coke in Shanxi is about 1,520 - 1,535 yuan/ton [88]. - The wet - quenched warehouse - receipt price of coke at the port is 1,600 yuan/ton, and the quasi - first - grade dry - quenched warehouse - receipt price is 1,720 yuan/ton [88]. Spread - Recently, the futures price has rebounded and is at a premium to the dry - quenched warehouse - receipt price. The 5 - 9 month spread fluctuates [93]. Supply - After the price increase, coke enterprises have good profits and stable production [6]. Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills is 228 tons, basically unchanged week - on - week. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 79%, a slight week - on - week increase. Steel mills have poor profits, and the demand driving force is not strong [6][97]. Profit - After the first - round price increase, the profit of coke enterprises has improved, and the current estimated overall profit of coking is about 60 yuan/ton [6]. Inventory - Coke enterprises have smooth shipments, and steel mills have low pig iron output and general procurement enthusiasm for raw materials [6]. Balance Sheet Coking Coal - The production, import, consumption, surplus, and inventory of coking coal from June 2025 to June 2026 are presented in the balance sheet, along with year - on - year changes in production and consumption [131]. Coke - The production, import, export, consumption, surplus, and inventory of coke from June 2025 to June 2026 are presented in the balance sheet, along with year - on - year changes in production and consumption [133].

镍&不锈钢 2 0 2 6 / 2 / 4 拐拐拐拐 | 作者：陈琳萱 | 研究助理：王若颜 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号：F03108575 | 从业资格证号：F03134422 | | 交易咨询证号：Z0021508 | 联系方式：wangruoyan@zjtfqh.com | | 邮箱：chenlinxuan@zjtfqh.com | 审核：李文涛 | | 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 | 交易咨询证号：Z0015640 | 观点小结 | 镍 | 定性 | 解析 | | --- | --- | --- | | 核心观点 | 震荡 | 周内镍价主要跟随宏观情绪指引，贵金属及有色板块带领盘面大幅回调，关注资金动向及盘面企稳信号。供应端，菲律宾及印尼主产区正值雨季 | | | | ，镍矿发运持续受阻，矿价支撑较强。此外，镍矿配额发放节奏仍对镍价形成阶段性扰动，然而镍自身基本面维持弱势，累库趋势未出现拐点， 当前盘面多空博弈加剧，短期或难走出趋势性行情。 | | 镍矿价格 | 偏多 | 截至2月2日，菲律宾红土镍矿0.9%、1.5%、1.8%CIF价格环比上周分别+0、+0.5、+0 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - **Manganese Silicon**: The core view is bearish. This week, the futures market fluctuated sharply. After a significant rally following the overall commodity sentiment, the price started to decline and returned to the level at the beginning of the week. The weekly production of silicon - manganese increased month - on - month, and the demand slightly rebounded. Some factories hedged at high levels. Recently, some factories in Inner Mongolia plan to start new production around the Spring Festival. The northern offer is around 5,600 - 5,700 yuan/ton, and the southern offer is 5,750 - 5,850 yuan/ton. Some factories in Guizhou and Guilin, Guangxi stopped or reduced production due to the increase in single - shift production electricity prices. The tender price of HBIS is 5,920 yuan/ton. In terms of cost, South32 announced the offer of South African semi - carbonate lump (typical value Mn36.9%) for March 2026 at 4.5 dollars/ton degree, a month - on - month increase of 0.1 dollars/ton degree; the offer of Australian lump (typical value Mn42%) is 5.2 dollars/ton degree, a month - on - month increase of 0.1 dollars/ton degree. The coking coal and coke futures fluctuated sharply, and the first round of coke price increase was implemented [3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The core view is neutral. This week, the futures market fluctuated sharply. After a significant rally following the overall commodity sentiment, the price started to decline and returned to the level at the beginning of the week. The ferrosilicon market adjusted upwards, and the market was filled with a strong sense of cautious waiting - and - seeing. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon natural lumps in the main production areas is 5,250 - 5,350 yuan/ton (cash and tax included), and the price of 75 - grade ferrosilicon is 5,750 - 5,950 yuan/ton. The production of ferrosilicon increased slightly. On the demand side, the demand from steel mills increased in the short term, and the production of magnesium continued to rise. Currently, the price difference between 75 - grade and 72 - grade ferrosilicon continues to widen. In terms of cost and profit, the price of semi - coke decreased slightly. Continued attention should be paid to the implementation of differential electricity prices in Shaanxi [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Manganese Silicon - **Manganese Ore Inventory**: The total port inventory of manganese ore is 4.248 million tons, continuing to accumulate slightly month - on - month. Among them, the inventory at Tianjin Port increased slightly to 3.23 million tons, still significantly lower than the same period last year; the inventory at Qinzhou Port decreased slightly to 1.013 million tons, significantly higher than the same period last year. In terms of different varieties at Tianjin Port, the inventory of South African ore is 2.037 million tons, with a slight decrease; the inventory of Gabonese ore is 245,000 tons, with a significant increase, far lower than the same period last year; the inventory of Australian ore is 483,000 tons, with a slight increase, higher than the same period last year [9][13]. - **Manganese Ore Price**: The price of Gabonese lump at Tianjin Port is 42.7 yuan/ton degree, Australian lump is 41.5 yuan/ton degree, and South African semi - carbonate is 36 yuan/ton degree. Traders reduced low - price shipments, and the quotes became slightly firmer. However, the pre - holiday procurement demand from factories gradually weakened, and the overall trading remained light [15]. - **Manganese Silicon Production**: As of January 30, the weekly production of silicon - manganese increased to 192,400 tons. The daily average production in Inner Mongolia increased slightly to 14,240 tons/day; that in Ningxia remained stable at 6,030 tons/day; that in Yunnan remained stable at 640 tons/day; that in Guizhou remained stable at 1,825 tons/day; and that in Guangxi decreased to 1,690 tons/day [25]. - **Manganese Silicon Demand**: As of January 30, the weekly demand of Mysteel sample enterprises is 117,200 tons, and the weekly production of the five major steel products decreased to 801,740 tons. The proportion of rebar in the five major steel products in Mysteel sample data decreased slightly month - on - month [30]. - **Manganese Silicon Price**: The price in the Inner Mongolia market is around 5,700 yuan/ton, and that in Tianjin is 5,780 yuan/ton. The tender price of HBIS is 5,920 yuan/ton [42]. - **Chemical Coke Price**: This week, the price of chemical coke remained stable. As of January 30, the ex - factory prices of 25 - 40mm chemical coke in Yinchuan, Ordos, and Alxa are 1,190, 1,140, and 1,140 yuan/ton respectively [45]. - **Manganese Silicon Production Profit**: The immediate profit of manganese silicon is low, and the point - to - point profit loss narrowed slightly [52]. - **Manganese Silicon Month - Spread**: As of January 29, the 5 - 9 month - spread of manganese silicon is - 50 yuan/ton, continuing to fluctuate at a low level [56]. - **Manganese Silicon Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The futures price fluctuated downward, and the basis strengthened slightly. As of January 29, the total of manganese silicon warehouse receipts and valid forecasts is 197,100 tons [59]. Ferrosilicon - **Ferrosilicon Production**: As of January 30, on the supply side, the weekly production is 98,500 tons, increasing slightly month - on - month. The daily average production in Inner Mongolia is 5,165 tons, in Qinghai is 1,310 tons, in Ningxia is 3,660 tons, and in Shaanxi is 2,680 tons [68]. - **Ferrosilicon Demand - Steel Mills**: The total consumption of ferrosilicon by Mysteel sample steel mills is 18,800 tons, higher than the same period last year [73]. - **Ferrosilicon Demand - Magnesium**: The export price of magnesium at Tianjin Port is 2,440 dollars/ton; the market price is 16,650 yuan/ton, increasing slightly month - on - month. The weekly production of magnesium is 20,321 tons, continuing to increase slightly. Most mainstream factories offer prices between 16,300 - 16,400 yuan/ton. Some magnesium enterprises reported that downstream inquiries offered 16,200 yuan, but factories are reluctant to lower prices. Affected by the difficult sales and slight price decline of semi - coke, manufacturers said that profits are meager, and most of them have a stable - price mentality. The emergence of low - price goods in trading areas has a certain impact on the stability of magnesium prices. Magnesium factories have difficulty in selling, downstream customers keep inquiring, and the market trading activity is average [77]. - **Ferrosilicon Export**: As of January 30, the overseas FOB price of 75 - grade ferrosilicon is 1,115 dollars/ton, and that of 72 - grade ferrosilicon is 1,055 dollars/ton, increasing slightly month - on - month. In December, the import volume of ferrosilicon decreased slightly month - on - month, and the export volume increased month - on - month [79]. - **Ferrosilicon Raw Materials**: As of January 30, the quotes of mainstream semi - coke small materials remained stable. The current prices are 755 yuan/ton in Shaanxi, 805 yuan/ton in Ningxia, and 745 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia. The price of iron oxide scale is 730 yuan/ton [84][86]. - **Ferrosilicon Production Profit**: As of January 30, the point - to - point profit loss of ferrosilicon widened slightly. The production profits in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shaanxi, and Qinghai are - 104, - 65, - 259, and - 513 yuan/ton respectively [89][90]. - **Ferrosilicon Month - Spread**: As of January 29, the 5 - 9 month - spread of ferrosilicon is - 44 yuan/ton, strengthening slightly month - on - month [95]. - **Ferrosilicon Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The futures price fluctuated sharply, and the basis of ferrosilicon decreased slightly. As of January 29, the total of ferrosilicon warehouse receipts and valid forecasts is 43,700 tons [100]. Balance Sheet - **Manganese Silicon**: From July 2025 to June 2026, the total supply and demand of manganese silicon showed different trends. The total supply fluctuated between 85.1 - 98.0 million tons, and the total demand fluctuated between 74.8 - 94.0 million tons. The surplus volume also changed, with a maximum surplus of 10.3 million tons and a minimum deficit of 2.5 million tons. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of production and consumption also showed different trends [102]. - **Ferrosilicon**: From July 2025 to June 2026, the total supply of ferrosilicon fluctuated between 43.0 - 52.0 million tons, and the total demand fluctuated between 43.1 - 51.4 million tons. The surplus volume also changed, with a maximum surplus of 4.9 million tons and a minimum deficit of 3.5 million tons. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of production and consumption also showed different trends [103].

节前休养生息 钢钢钢钢 2 0 2 6 / 2 / 2 作者：尹艺瑾 从业资格证号：F03125275 交易咨询证号：Z0023616 研究联系方式：13752670838 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 审核：李文涛 交易咨询证号：Z0015640 观点小结 | 钢材 | 定性 | 解析 | | --- | --- | --- | | 核心观点 | 中性 | 上周盘面震荡回落。铁水小幅回落，五品种成材总产量环比继续小幅增加，库存累库，表需回落。螺纹 增产累库，表需回落，热卷增产去库，表需小幅回升。长流程钢厂利润小幅下降，部分钢厂亏损，短流 程钢厂谷电利润小幅回升。临近春节假期，部分贸易商已提前放假，现货市场成交清淡。盘面原料价格 | | | | 震荡剧烈，焦炭第一轮提涨落地，市场暂无后续价格预期。策略方面可更多关注钢厂利润相关头寸。 | | 月差 | 中性 | 螺纹月差5-10月差-49元/吨。 | | 钢厂利润 | 偏强 | 本周247家钢铁企业盈利率为39.39%，环比小幅回落，显著低于去年同期水平。 | | 废钢 | 中性 | 根据测算，华东电炉厂当前平电生产吨钢亏损95元/吨，谷电吨钢盈利23 ...

贵FOMO 贵贵贵 贵贵贵贵贵 2026/02/02 作者：刘诗瑶 从业资格证号：F3041949 交易咨询证号：Z0019385 交易咨询证号：Z0015640 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 观点小结 ◼ 上周，受贝森特重申强美元立场及鹰派色彩明显的凯文·沃什获提名为美联储主席等消息影响，美元指数走强，市场担忧全球流动性 宽松的交易逻辑生变，引发贵金属在三个交易日内出现集中抛售。伦敦现货黄金下跌近20%，白银跌幅更高达40%，全球主要股市亦普 遍承压。 ◼ 我们认为，此次贵金属的剧烈回调，本质上源于此前快速上涨阶段积累的结构脆弱性——无论是价格短期涨幅与速度、看涨期权波动 率的高溢价，还是多项技术指标揭示的超买状态，均早已提示市场处于高波动、高风险的不稳定格局。暴涨与急跌实为一枚硬币的两 面，盈亏同源，市场在情绪推动下往往如履薄冰。 ◼ 然而，全球流动性宽松的逻辑未必就此逆转，"贬值交易"的宏观主题也难以轻易进入逆风期。一个重要原因在于：即便沃什在货币 政策上偏鹰，其在资产负债表层面的操作空间实际上受到财政现实的制约。若其推动缩表，私人部门将被迫吸收更多长期债券，从而 推高期限溢价、抬升长端收益率， ...

尿素周报2026/1/30 作者：康健 观点小结 | 尿素 | 定性 | 解析 | | --- | --- | --- | | 核心观点 | 偏空 | 供应方面，开工率持续偏强，日产近21万吨；出口利润仍然偏高，但未有新的出口配额；冬储需求减弱， 复合肥开工率终于开始下行，工业需求暂时偏强。综合来看，供需向宽松转变，累库预期下，尿素期货或 | | | | 将转弱。 | | 月差 | 中性 | 当前注册仓单维持高位，近月合约压力较大。 | | 政策 | 中性 | 本周无重要政策出台。 | | 现货 | 中性 偏空 | 冬储需求开始减弱，下游复合肥开工率终于季节性走弱，虽然节后春耕需求仍在，但短期内下游的假日模 式已经开启；供给仍持续处于高位，同比偏高8.5%；现货短期或将走弱。 | | 库存 | 中性 | 企业库存本周基本结束去库，需求减弱的预期下获将转为累库；港口库存则持续维持低位。 | | 出口 | 中性 | 出口利润依旧很高，但暂时未有新的出口配额。 | | 需求 | 中性 | 节日临近，下游采购开始减弱，磷钾肥在保供政策影响下开始趋于稳定，复合肥价格上涨告一段落，复合 肥开工率终于呈现季节性下降，三聚氰 ...