1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the PVC industry is Neutral to Bearish [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Fundamentally, PVC production has increased, and the industry chain continues to accumulate inventory, increasing pressure on PVC. Recently, low - valued varieties are greatly affected by the macro - environment, and the number of warehouse receipts increased rapidly with the previous upward movement of the futures market. It is expected that as September approaches, pricing will return to fundamentals [3] - The 9 - 1 month spread has been oscillating weakly recently [3] - Overseas uncertainties are high, and attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting at the end of July [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Raw Materials (Lanthanum Coke and Calcium Carbide) - Lanthanum Coke: The operating rate of sample enterprises remained stable at 39.14%, and the price of Shenmu medium - grade lanthanum coke was reported at 580 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [6] - Calcium Carbide: Supply slightly increased, with the operating rate rising 0.9 percentage points to 72.2% (medium - low overall). The price of Wuhai calcium carbide dropped to 2225 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan from last week, and the profit was - 306 yuan [12] 3.2 PVC Supply - The overall operating rate of PVC powder was 75.81%, a 0.84 - percentage - point increase from the previous period. Among them, the operating rate of calcium - carbide - based PVC powder was 79.21%, up 1.69 percentage points, while that of ethylene - based PVC powder was 66.95%, down 1.36 percentage points. Tianjin Dagu plans to start mass production in August, and Haijing plans to start production at the end of August [3][17] 3.3 PVC Downstream Demand - Downstream product operating rates: Pipe operating rate was 32.52% (- 1.23%), and profile operating rate was 38.00% (+ 3.45%), both lower than the same period last year [25] - Exports: From January to June, PVC powder exports were 196 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 66 million tons (+ 50.7%), but exports weakened significantly in June. From January to June, PVC powder imports were 12.42 million tons, basically the same as last year. From January to June, cumulative floor exports were 209 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.05% [61][62][64] 3.4 PVC Inventory - Social inventory increased to 63.12 million tons, an increase of 2.21 million tons from the previous period. Among them, East China sample inventory was 58.72 million tons, up 2.16 million tons, and South China sample inventory was 4.40 million tons, up 0.05 million tons. Upstream factory inventory decreased to 37.23 million tons, a decrease of 0.32 million tons from the previous period. The industry chain inventory increased [32][33] 3.5 PVC Profit - Calcium - carbide integration losses slightly narrowed. Xinjiang integration profit was - 290 yuan/ton, and Northwest integration profit was - 767 yuan/ton. The profit of the purchased calcium - carbide method rebounded. The profit of the Northwest purchased calcium - carbide method was - 114 yuan/ton, and that of the North China purchased calcium - carbide method was - 393 yuan/ton [43] - The profit of the purchased ethylene method slightly rebounded. East China ethylene - based profit was 463 yuan/ton, and North China ethylene - based profit was 613 yuan/ton, a slight increase from last week [46] - Comprehensive profit strengthened. Northwest comprehensive profit was 684 yuan/ton and continued to increase. Shandong comprehensive profit was 160 yuan/ton. The double - ton price difference increased by 210 to 3459 yuan/ton [55] 3.6 Related Commodities - Since 2024, real - estate demand has continued to weaken, cement prices have declined, and the operating rate has remained low [68] 3.7 Futures - Spot Analysis - The futures market strengthened. The 09 contract rose from 4937 last week to 5149 at the last closing. The 9 - 1 month spread weakened to - 128. The number of registered warehouse receipts continued to increase, reaching 56,410 on July 28, an increase of 1770 from last week [79] 3.8 PVC Balance Sheet - The balance sheet shows monthly production, demand, imports, exports, inventory changes, year - on - year and cumulative year - on - year changes in production and demand from 2024 to 2025 [81]

作者：王琪瑶 期货从业证号：F03090212 交易咨询证号：Z0016781 联系方式：wangqiyao@zjtfqh.com 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 审核：肖兰兰 联系人：魏悦 交易咨询证号：Z0013951 从业资格证号：F03147756 联系方式：weiyue@zjtfqh.com | 天然橡胶 | 定性 | 解析 | | --- | --- | --- | | 核心观点 | 短期： | ————————————————————盘面———————————————————— | | | RU中性 | 截止7月25日，RU、NR上涨；RU-NR价差走扩；RU09-01价差高位。 | | | NR中性 | ———————————————————基本面———————————————————— | | | | RU:下游备货情绪导致胶价高位抬升（多）；浅色胶维持降库趋势（多），大宗商品氛围对橡胶形成带 | | | 中长期： | 动效应，判断本周RU价格区间震荡。 | | | RU中性 | NR:泰柬冲突下引发供应恐慌情绪（多），需求淡季，但轮胎出口情况好，短期出口韧性支撑开工率， | | | ...

尿素周报2025/7/28 作者：康健 从业资格证号：F03088041 交易咨询证号：Z0019583 研究联系方式：kangjian@zjtfqh.com 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 审核：肖兰兰 交易咨询证号：Z0013951 内卷不如外卷 观点小结 | 尿素 | 定性 | 解析 | | --- | --- | --- | | 核心观点 | 中性 偏多 | 供应方面，夏季检修增加，产量下滑但仍处于高位；出口利润较高，但出口额度仍未大幅放开；复合肥开 工率缓慢提升，工业需求不温不火。综合来看，短期国内驱动不明显，内卷不如外卷，出口政策仍有放开 | | | | 预期。 | | 月差 | 中性 | 可继续关注出口提振带来的月差走强机会。 | | | 偏多 | | | 政策 | 中性 | 市场传言小包装尿素出口停止，其他尿素出口仍在进行。 | | 现货 | 中性 | 复合肥开工率缓慢提升，但企业原料库存尚可，采购需求平稳。 | | 库存 | 中性 | 企业库存继续小幅下行，港口库存继续走高，企业库存部分向港口转移。 | | | 偏多 | | | 出口 | 中性 | 国际价格继续走高，出口潜在利润进一步 ...

2 0 2 5 / 7 / 1 7 作者：刘诗瑶 从业资格证号：F3041949 审核：肖兰兰 交易咨询证号：Z0013951 联系人：田洲恺 从业资格证号：F03134743 交易咨询证号：Z0019385 邮箱：tianzhoukai@zjtfqh.com 联系方式：liushiyao@zjtfqh.com 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 | 锌 | 定性 | 解析 | | --- | --- | --- | | 核心观点 | 震荡偏弱 | 宏观面边际改善，但上方空间有限，锌作为过剩的品种，产业链各环节已开始累库，全年应偏空看待。7月炼厂积极复产， 考虑检修复产+新投产，环比增量或在1.5-2万吨，正值消费淡季，下游需求偏弱，预计沪锌估值中枢下移，社库累库幅度 环比增加。 | | 冶炼利润 | 偏空 | 周度国产加工费3800元/金属吨；周度进口TC 65美元/干吨,环比小涨。 不考虑冶炼副产品的平均冶炼利润上行至-200元/吨附近。 | | 现货升贴水 | 偏空 | 上海对2508合约升水30元/吨；广东对2509合约贴水-45元/吨；天津对2508合约贴水20元/吨。 | | 镀锌开工率 | 偏 ...

作者：康健 从业资格证号：F03088041 尿素周报2025/7/18 交易咨询证号：Z0019583 研究联系方式：kangjian@zjtfqh.com 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 审核：肖兰兰 交易咨询证号：Z0013951 关注出口变化 观点小结 | 尿素 | 定性 | 解析 | | --- | --- | --- | | 核心观点 | 中性 | 供应方面，夏季检修增加，产量有所下滑；出口利润较高，但出口额度仍未大幅放开；复合肥秋季预收开 | | | 偏多 | 始，开工率缓慢提升，工业需求不温不火。综合来看，短期国内驱动不明显，关注出口政策变化。 | | 月差 | 中性 偏多 | 可继续关注出口提振带来的月差走强机会。 | | 政策 | 中性 | 市场传言出口指导价提高，新一轮出口额度释放，但目前并不大幅放开出口的确定消息。 | | 现货 | 中性 | 复合肥开工率缓慢提升，但企业收单平稳，成交不温不火。 | | 库存 | 中性 | 企业库存继续下行，港口库存继续走高，企业库存部分向港口转移，出口需求支撑当前尿素价格。 | | 出口 | 中性 | 国际价格继续走高，出口潜在利润进一步提升； ...

交易咨询证号：Z0019583 研究联系方式： kangjian@zjtfqh.com 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 审核：李文涛 交易咨询证号：Z0015640 静待铁水回落 观点小结 铁矿石 解析 铁矿周报 2025/7/23 作者：康健 从业资格证号：F03088041 库存 45港库存环比增19.24万吨，贸易矿占比65.7%。钢厂进口矿总库存减157.48万吨，厂库增16万吨，海漂+港口减174万吨；进口矿可用 天数增长1天至20天。 钢厂利润 成材利润继续走弱；唐山废铁价差走低；块矿入炉比大幅走高，球团入炉比上行；烧结入炉比下滑。 折扣&汇率 7月MA指数均值为100，对应盘面估值约为788。 品种间差异 金巴布粉溢价继续回升；主流中低品溢价稳定；内外矿价差回落。 天气 巴西降水稀少 巴西天气：北部降水回落，其他地区降水稀少 周度评述 供应端全球发运量企稳回升，澳洲发运企稳，巴西发运偏高，非主流地区发运低位企稳，到港量开始回升。需求端铁水再度增长，成 材利润下滑，废铁价差下滑，247样本日均铁水环比+2.63万吨至242.44万吨，7月的月均铁水约241万吨，近期钢厂高炉复产与检修持 平， ...

镍&不锈钢周报 2 0 2 5 / 7 / 2 3 | 作者：陈琳萱 | 研究助理：王若颜 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号：F03108575 | 从业资格证号：F03134422 | | 交易咨询证号：Z0021508 | 联系方式：wangruoyan@zjtfqh.com | | 邮箱：chenlinxuan@zjtfqh.com | 审核：肖兰兰 | | 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 | 交易咨询证号：Z0013951 | | 镍 | 定性 | 解析 | | --- | --- | --- | | 核心观点 | 中性 偏空 | 随着镍矿供应陆续起量、冶炼端运行产能充裕，精炼镍内外库存累增，现实需求不容乐观。虽反内卷政策交易预期尚未降温，但镍价走势与基本 | | | | 面愈发背离，进一步上行压力仍存。 | | 镍矿价格 | 中性 | 截至7月21日，菲律宾红土镍矿0.9%、1.5%、1.8%CIF价格环比上周分别持平于30、58.5、80.5美元/湿吨。 | | 印尼内贸镍矿 | 中性 | 截至7月18日，印尼Ni1.2%、Ni1.6%内贸镍矿到厂价环比上周分别持平于25、5 ...