1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core view on nickel is that it will be in a volatile state. The price of nickel ore at the raw material end remains high, and with the coming of the rainy season in the Philippines, the shipment volume of nickel ore is hindered, and mines have a strong attitude to hold prices. The fundamentals of pure nickel remain weak, but short - term macro - sentiment may still be priced in, and it is expected that nickel prices will continue to fluctuate widely [3]. - The short - term stainless steel market is operating weakly. The downward shift of cost support and the imbalance between supply and demand jointly suppress steel prices. After the "Silver October" peak season, downstream buyers mainly purchase for rigid demand and resist high - priced resources, making it difficult to provide upward momentum for prices [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Nickel Market 3.1.1 Price and Market Conditions - As of October 27, the spot price of electrolytic nickel increased by 950 yuan/ton to 123,050 yuan/ton week - on - week, a 0.78% increase; the price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 950 yuan/ton to 124,300 yuan/ton, a 0.77% increase; the price of imported nickel increased by 950 yuan/ton to 122,250 yuan/ton, a 0.78% increase [15]. - As of October 27, the LME nickel price increased by 105 dollars/ton to 15,335 dollars/ton week - on - week, a 0.69% increase; the LME nickel 0 - 3 spot premium decreased by 0.3 dollars/ton to - 205.18 dollars/ton [19]. - As of October 27, the average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 9 yuan/nickel point to 928.5 yuan/nickel point week - on - week, a 0.96% decrease [3][27]. 3.1.2 Supply - As of September 2025, China's monthly electrolytic nickel production increased by 0.04 million tons to 3.56 million tons month - on - month, a 1.14% increase, and a 13.07% increase year - on - year [3][49]. - As of September 2025, China's monthly refined nickel export volume was 1.41 million tons, a 6.22% decrease month - on - month, and a 33.21% increase year - on - year; the monthly import volume was 2.84 million tons, a 17.29% increase month - on - month, and a 378.85% increase year - on - year [49]. - As of October 27, SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased by 2,912 tons to 29,800 tons week - on - week, a 10.84% increase; LME nickel warehouse receipts increased by 762 tons to 251,200 tons week - on - week, a 0.30% increase [50]. 3.1.3 Demand - The battery field is the core driver of demand. The penetration of high - nickel battery technology is increasing, and new - energy vehicle manufacturers have stable production, increasing the procurement demand for high - purity nickel sulfate. The electroplating field benefits from the peak season of consumer electronics, driving up the inquiry volume of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate [4]. 3.2 Nickel Ore Market 3.2.1 Price - As of October 27, the CIF prices of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% Philippine laterite nickel ore increased by 1 dollar/wet ton to 30, 58, and 79.5 dollars/wet ton respectively week - on - week [3][32]. - As of October 24, the ex - works prices of Ni1.2% and Ni1.6% domestic trade nickel ore in Indonesia remained unchanged at 23 and 52.8 dollars/wet ton respectively week - on - week [3][32]. - Last week, the freight rates from the Philippines to Tianjin Port and Lianyungang remained unchanged at 12.5 and 11.5 dollars/wet ton respectively [3][32]. 3.2.2 Supply - As of October 24, the nickel ore port inventory decreased by 29 million tons to 10.24 million wet tons week - on - week, a 2.75% decrease [35]. - In September 2025, the national nickel ore import volume was 6.1145 million tons, a 3.51% decrease month - on - month, and a 34.43% increase year - on - year. Among them, the import volume from the Philippines was 5.8174 million tons, a 1.93% decrease month - on - month [35]. 3.3 Nickel Intermediate Product Market - As of October 27, the FOB price of MHP increased by 24 dollars/ton to 13,184 dollars/ton week - on - week, a 0.18% increase; the FOB price of high - grade nickel matte increased by 24 dollars/ton to 13,489 dollars/ton week - on - week, a 0.18% increase [41]. - As of September 2025, the production of Indonesian MHP decreased by 0.08 million tons to 4.07 million nickel tons month - on - month, a 1.93% decrease; the production of high - grade nickel matte increased by 0.53 million tons to 2.26 million tons month - on - month, a 30.64% increase [41]. - As of September 2025, the monthly import volume of MHP was 1.905 million tons, a 11.66% increase month - on - month, and a 67.38% increase year - on - year; the monthly import volume of high - grade nickel matte was 0.568 million tons, a 236.44% increase month - on - month, and a 65.93% increase year - on - year [41]. 3.4 Nickel Sulfate Market - As of September 2025, China's monthly nickel sulfate production increased by 0.35 million tons to 3.40 million nickel tons month - on - month, a 11.45% increase. The production of domestic nickel sulfate increased, and the operating rate was also adjusted upwards. Recently, some salt plants that had undergone maintenance have restored production capacity, and the production volume has slightly increased due to contract processing orders. However, the overall inventory is at a low level, and the volume of spot sales is limited, and the market supply continues to be in a tight pattern [62]. - As of September 2025, China's monthly nickel sulfate import volume was 2.95 million tons, a 2.51% decrease month - on - month, and a 36.24% increase year - on - year; the monthly export volume was 806,420 tons, a 58.96% increase month - on - month, and a 75.81% decrease year - on - year [62]. 3.5 Nickel Iron Market 3.5.1 Production - As of September 2025, the national nickel pig iron production (metal content) decreased by 0.23 million tons to 2.29 million tons month - on - month, a 9.30% decrease. Most domestic nickel iron manufacturers maintain a normal production rhythm, but due to the narrowing profit margin and weak demand, the overall industry operating rate is at a low level [78]. - As of September 2025, the production of nickel pig iron in Indonesia increased by 0.2 million tons to 13.99 million nickel tons month - on - month, a 1.45% increase [78]. 3.5.2 Import - As of September 2025, China's monthly nickel iron import volume was 1.0853 million tons (converted to metal content of 136,400 tons), a 24.16% increase month - on - month, and a 47.19% increase year - on - year. The latest data shows that the import volume of nickel iron from Indonesia has increased significantly, exacerbating the domestic oversupply situation [78]. 3.5.3 Profit - As of October 27, the cash production cost of RKEF in Fujian increased by 2.94 yuan/nickel point to 1,002.96 yuan/nickel point week - on - week, and the production profit margin decreased by 1.17 percentage points to - 7.42% [84]. 3.6 Stainless Steel Market 3.6.1 Price - Last week, the stainless steel main contract ss2512 opened at 12,620 yuan/ton and closed at 12,810 yuan/ton, with a weekly high of 12,840 yuan/ton and a low of 12,565 yuan/ton, a 1.43% weekly increase. The futures market showed an upward trend, but the boost to the spot market was limited [87]. 3.6.2 Production - As of October 2025, the national stainless steel crude steel production plan was 3.4472 million tons, a 0.60% increase month - on - month, and a 4.75% increase year - on - year. Among them, the production plan for the 200 - series was 1.035 million tons, a 1.35% increase month - on - month; the 300 - series was 1.7649 million tons, a 0.12% increase month - on - month; the 400 - series was 0.6293 million tons, a 0.69% increase month - on - month [90]. 3.6.3 Inventory - As of October 24, the stainless steel social inventory decreased by 13,800 tons to 1.0274 million tons week - on - week, a 1.33% decrease. Among them, the 300 - series inventory decreased by 5,800 tons to 649,300 tons week - on - week, a 0.89% decrease [93]. - As of October 28, the stainless steel warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 601 tons to 73,900 tons week - on - week, a 0.81% decrease [93]. 3.6.4 Cost - As of October 28, the production cost of Chinese 304 cold - rolled stainless steel decreased by 78 yuan/ton to 12,904 yuan/ton week - on - week, a 0.60% decrease [96].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Copper prices were high last week, with LME copper slightly falling after hitting resistance but still above the $10,000 mark, and SHFE copper centered around 85,000 yuan. The market sentiment has been high recently, and copper prices seem to deviate from the fundamentals. Volatility is expected to increase in the near term, with a bullish trend overall, but there may be profit - taking situations [3]. - The new round of China - US economic and trade consultations from October 25th to 26th is conducive to alleviating concerns and bringing benefits to both sides' development and the world economy, leading to a positive market reaction at the beginning of this week [3]. - There are many important meetings this week. The APEC leaders' meeting and the China - US presidential meeting are on the schedule, and the Fed will hold a meeting. Attention should be paid to the risk of market corrections when some events are finalized or fall short of expectations [3]. - The current rise in copper prices is mainly driven by capital, and the short - term fundamentals are ineffective. As copper prices continue to rise, downstream processing enterprises have started to shut down. Although there is still some short - term upward space for copper prices, it is limited, and it is difficult for this upward trend to last until the end of the year. In the long run, consumption factors are essential for copper price increases, and copper mine shortages, AI, green energy, and power grid transformation are positive factors for copper prices [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Monthly Balance Sheet - The total supply and consumption of copper show different trends in different months from 2024/10 to 2026/3. The total supply ranges from 128 million tons to 145 million tons, and the total consumption ranges from 106 million tons to 149 million tons. The surplus or deficit situation also varies, with the surplus amount ranging from - 21.3 million tons to 24.0 million tons [4]. - The year - on - year changes in total supply, consumption, cumulative production, and cumulative consumption also fluctuate. For example, the year - on - year change in total supply ranges from - 7.25% to 22.48%, and the year - on - year change in consumption ranges from - 21.30% to 24.33% [4]. Weekly Fundamental Situation - **Project News**: On October 18th, the Alatan Daba Molybdenum - Copper Mine project officially started, with a designed production scale of 300,000 tons/year, using the "project - for - resources" EPC + O model [7]. - **Production Data**: BHP's copper production in the first fiscal quarter was 49,360 tons, a 4% increase, with an average realized price of $4.59 per pound, an 8% year - on - year increase. It maintains its annual copper production forecast at 1.8 - 2 million tons [7]. - **Policy and Call**: Indonesia may allow the copper concentrate exports of Amman Mineral. Chen Jinghe called for enhancing the global supply guarantee capacity of strategic key minerals [7]. Copper Concentrate/Crude Copper Processing Fees - Recently, the spot TC of copper concentrate has declined, and the overall sentiment is cautious, with light spot trading. The clean copper concentrate spot TC fluctuates around - 40. The domestic trade concentrate market is stable, and the focus is on long - term contract negotiations, which progress slowly due to large differences in psychological expectations [12]. - It is expected that the pricing coefficient will remain high and stable in the short term, with a possibility of a slight increase [12]. Copper Concentrate Port Data - Last week, the inventory of imported copper concentrate at 16 Chinese ports was 602,000 tons, a decrease of 37,000 tons from the previous week. Most ports saw inventory declines, especially Qingdao Port and Fangchenggang Port [16]. Smelting Profit - Last week, the TC price slightly declined, but the sulfuric acid price increased, offsetting part of the smelting losses. The profitability of long - term contracts and the loss level of spot contracts both improved. The long - term contract profit was 245 yuan/ton, and the spot contract loss was 1,700 yuan/ton [19]. SHFE Copper Spread Structure - Last week, as copper prices were high, downstream purchasing demand was weak. The spot premium initially fluctuated around par, then turned to a discount as delivery warehouse receipts flowed out and copper prices rose. The discount widened at the end of the week. The overall inventory first increased and then decreased. There is still upward space for copper prices this year, but caution should be exercised in taking profits at high prices [22]. LME Copper Structure Curve - As of October 24th, LME copper inventory was around 13.63 tons, and the ratio of cancelled warehouse receipts slightly increased to about 7.59%. The cash month was at a discount of about $25.97 per ton. Some Chinese export supplies are expected to flow into LME Asian warehouses, with an estimated change of more than 20,000 tons [32]. LME Copper Position and Warehouse Receipt Concentration - The Futures Banding Report shows that the short - term light long positions of copper prices have decreased, and the long - term light positions have decreased by one position. At the same time, the short - term short positions have increased by two positions, the medium - term light short positions have decreased, and the long - term medium - sized short positions have increased by one position. The market sentiment of short - selling at high prices has increased [34]. - The Cash Report and Warrant Banding Report show that the market concentration has increased [35]. SHFE - LME Copper Ratio - Recently, copper prices have been rising, but the SHFE - LME copper ratio has remained low at around 7.98, and the import window loss is still 800 yuan/ton. The ratio has fluctuated greatly recently, and caution should be exercised in ratio operations [37]. Bonded Warehouse Inventory - On October 27th, the total copper inventory in Shanghai and Guangdong bonded areas was 116,800 tons, an increase of 4,200 tons from the 20th and 2,000 tons from the 23rd. The bonded area inventory continues to accumulate, but the increase rate has slowed down [41][42]. Scrap Copper Market - **Scrap Red Copper**: The copper price has been rising, but the overall market trading volume is limited. Upstream traders' inventories are low, and the available spot is scarce. Downstream manufacturers' inventories of finished products and raw materials are high, and the scrap copper purchase volume is small. The high price of scrap copper restricts downstream consumption [45]. - **Scrap Yellow Copper**: The scrap yellow copper price has slightly increased with the rising copper price. Upstream traders are more active in trading, but due to the tight supply and high price of raw materials, it is difficult to replenish inventory, and the future trading activity may decline. Downstream brass factories' orders have increased slightly, but they are still lower than the same period last year, and most factories are cautious in purchasing [45]. Downstream Enterprises and End - Users - **Refined Copper Rod**: Most refined copper rod enterprises face sales pressure, with few new orders and slow提货. Some enterprises may reduce production or conduct maintenance to adjust inventory [47]. - **Recycled Copper Rod**: Most recycled copper rod enterprises maintain stable production, but the high copper price increases the raw material cost, and the weak terminal demand affects the actual output [47]. - **Copper Tube**: The output of copper tube enterprises has slightly increased due to the delivery of previous orders at the end of the month. However, the overall start - up rate is still low, and the orders are difficult to increase due to the off - season and high copper prices. The demand in the refrigeration sector is lower than expected, and the production plan of air - conditioning enterprises in the fourth quarter has decreased significantly compared with last year [47]. - **Copper Foil**: The supply of the copper foil market is stable. The supply of electronic circuit copper foil is slightly tight, supported by high copper prices. The demand in the downstream market is stable, and the sales volume has increased. The supply of high - end copper foil is still structurally tight. The supply of lithium - ion copper foil is loose, and the competition is intense. The demand growth in the new energy market has not met expectations, and battery manufacturers' purchasing strategies are cautious [47]. - **Copper Plate and Strip**: The production enthusiasm of copper plate and strip enterprises is basically the same as last week, and the start - up rate of some enterprises has decreased. The industry's start - up rhythm is slow due to weak terminal consumption, high production costs, and unclear market expectations. The supply of red copper plate and strip has little change, while the supply of yellow copper plate and strip is difficult to increase [47]. Inventory Changes - Global refined copper inventories have changed little recently, but high copper prices have suppressed some consumption. With some Chinese export supplies flowing into LME, the global visible inventory is expected to increase [50]. - **Shanghai Region**: At the beginning of this week, the Shanghai inventory was 121,300 tons, a decrease of 500 tons from the 20th and an increase of 500 tons from the 23rd. The domestic supplies in the Shanghai market are still arriving, but the import of refined copper is relatively small, and the inventory increase is limited [53]. - **Guangdong Region**: At the beginning of this week, the Guangdong inventory was 21,900 tons, a decrease of 2,200 tons from the 20th and 200 tons from the 23rd. The arrival of smelter supplies in the Guangdong market is small, and high copper prices have restricted downstream consumption, resulting in a slight decrease in inventory [59]. - **Jiangsu (Wuxi) Region**: At the beginning of this week, the Jiangsu inventory was 37,100 tons, a decrease of 4,200 tons from the 20th and 1,300 tons from the 23rd [66]. CFTC Position (Lagging) - As of September 23rd, the non - commercial long and short positions accounted for 32% and 18.7% respectively, with the long positions increasing by 0.6 and the short positions increasing by 1%. The market initiative has increased [72]. - The non - commercial net long position was 30,230 contracts, and the COT index was 0.614, indicating that the strength of copper prices has increased [72].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating to the palm oil industry [3] Core Viewpoints - If Indonesia's palm oil production increases by 10% this year, the final output will reach a record high of 58 million tons. The production growth rate has gradually slowed since 2018 when Indonesia banned the development of new land for oil palm cultivation, with only 2019 seeing a growth rate of 9.37%. Whether Indonesia can achieve a 10% annual increase remains to be seen [3] - Even though the market expects the production to enter a decline cycle in November, there are still concerns about export demand. There were only rumors of a small amount of palm oil transactions last week ahead of India's Diwali in late October. Argentine sunflower oil is cheaper than that from the Black Sea, and there are also reports of domestic soybean oil exports to India. November may be a turning point for the oil market, depending on whether the US government will announce the compliance obligation volume for 2026. After the decline in oil prices, the market is waiting for demand to pick up and stabilize, and also needs confidence in biodiesel demand from Indonesia and the US. Additionally, it is necessary to pay attention to whether there will be any unexpected situations in weather and supply in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. The report suggests focusing on the fulfillment of the MPOB October report next month [3] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. International Oilseed Prices - As of October 24, 2025, the weekly prices of Australian and Canadian rapeseeds declined. Australian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage. European sunflower seeds had the largest single - week increase, and Ukrainian sunflower seeds also saw an upward adjustment. The increase in international soybean prices was relatively small [5] 2. International Oil Prices - As of October 27, 2025, most weekly oil prices declined. South American soybean oil dropped by over $20 per ton, while European sunflower oil prices rose [9] 3. International Oil FOB Spreads - The spread between Malaysian and Indonesian refined palm oil was $0 per ton this week, compared to $15 per ton last week and a historical average of $8 per ton - The spread between Argentine soybean oil and Indonesian crude palm oil was -$29 per ton, compared to -$9 per ton last week and a historical average of $148 per ton [21] 4. International Rapeseed Spreads - As of October 24, with the progress of the Australian rapeseed harvest, the spread between Australian and Canadian rapeseeds began to narrow, while the spreads between German, Ukrainian, and Canadian rapeseeds remained at a high level [23] 5. Indian Port Oil Spreads - As of October 24, the spread between Indian port soybean oil and palm oil was $40 per ton, down from $50 per ton last week - The spread between sunflower oil and palm oil was $210 per ton, up from $190 per ton last week - The spread between refined soybean oil and refined palm oil was -$6 per ton, down from $0 per ton last week [30] 6. Import and Crushing Profits - Last week, three November - shipment palm oil vessels were traded in the domestic market - Domestic oil mills exported 10,000 - 20,000 tons of soybean oil to India for January shipment [38] 7. Biodiesel - The weekly price of US soybean oil weakened, and the processing and blending profits continued to improve - After the rebound of RME, the weekly RME processing profit improved [132][139] 8. Demand Side Weekly Oil Transactions - Weekly spot oil transactions were sluggish [146] Oil Spot Basis - Different from the weak basis of palm oil and soybean oil, the basis of rapeseed oil was relatively strong [151] Oil Inventory - The report provides monthly balance sheets for palm oil, rapeseed oil, and soybean oil, including data on initial inventory, imports, total supply, demand, ending inventory, inventory changes, inventory - to - consumption ratios, and surplus amounts [177]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term price of urea may remain relatively strong, but after the agricultural demand weakens, the relatively loose fundamentals will still suppress the price. The overall market demand will increase first and then decrease in the short term. The current month - spread is low, and the price of near - month contracts is under significant pressure. The market discusses that the export window may have closed. The agricultural sales drive the urea market in the mainstream areas to develop well, but it is difficult to support continuous strengthening. The inventory accumulation trend may continue after the demand. Although the international price is stable and the export profit is still high, China is restricted by policies and has difficulty participating in the Indian tender. The market discusses that the export quota may be significantly liberalized next year, but the export window may remain closed this year [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Market - The spot price of urea has rebounded significantly. The end of precipitation in North China has led to the emergence of delayed autumn fertilizer demand, boosting the compound fertilizer start - up rate and causing the spot price to rebound [4][10]. - The price of ammonium chloride has stabilized, and the trading atmosphere is active. The downstream compound fertilizer enterprises have fast sales supported by agricultural demand, but the start - up rate increases slowly, and the procurement of ammonium chloride is limited. The price of ammonium sulfate has become stagnant again after a recent increase. The price of caprolactam - grade ammonium sulfate has increased significantly, but downstream buyers are still cautious and have a low willingness to purchase at high prices in the short term [13]. Production and Supply - The urea start - up rate has rebounded recently as maintenance gradually resumes. The coal - based profit still exists, and the start - up rate may remain at a relatively high level. Some enterprises resumed production last week, and it is expected that more enterprises will resume this week without new maintenance, so the start - up rate may continue to rise [40][45]. Inventory - The growth rate of enterprise inventory has slowed down this week. Agricultural demand has a significant boost, but the start - up rate has also recovered. With the export window closed, the inventory may still tend to accumulate under the expectation of a loose supply - demand situation. The port inventory has decreased significantly as ports accelerated the departure of goods. The inventories in Qinhuangdao and Huanghua Port (small - particle) increased, while the inventory in Yantai Port decreased significantly [51]. Export - The export volume increased significantly in September, but the export window has now closed. The international price is stable, and the export profit is still very high. India may tender again soon, but China is restricted by policies and has difficulty participating. The market discusses that the export quota may be significantly liberalized next year, but the export window may remain closed this year [31][61]. Domestic Demand - The autumn fertilizer demand, which was delayed due to precipitation in the north, has increased significantly. The sales of autumn fertilizers of compound fertilizer enterprises have increased, and the start - up rate has increased slightly. However, the overall agricultural demand is coming to an end, and the intensity of reserve demand needs to be monitored. The demand for melamine and boards is weak, and the start - up rate remains low [3]. - The price of compound fertilizers may weaken again after the autumn fertilizer application ends. The price of melamine fluctuates within a narrow range. The start - up rate is at a historical low, and the market demand is weak. If the equipment resumes production next week, the supply - demand situation will become looser, and the price may be under pressure [77][91]. Raw Material Prices - The increase in raw material prices has slowed down. The coal production has decreased, and the supply contraction supports the coal price to stabilize and rebound. As the off - season arrives, the coal supply - demand situation has become looser, and the price increase has slowed down. The profit of coal - based urea is still high, and the increase in coal price has not affected the urea start - up rate. The synthetic ammonia market shows mixed price trends in different regions. The production has decreased recently, and the demand has increased slightly, but the downstream purchasing atmosphere is cautious, and the sustainability of agricultural demand growth may be weak [119][130]. Futures Market - The futures price of urea has stabilized, and the month - spread fluctuates. The warehouse receipts will start to be cancelled in October, and a large amount of physical goods from futures - to - cash transactions may form a large supply in the market [135][150]. Balance Sheet - The total supply and demand of urea show different trends in different months from 2025 to 2026. The export volume increased significantly in September 2025, but the export window closed in October, and the export volume may decrease significantly [153][155].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Recent significant correction in gold prices, with a cumulative decline of over 10% from the high of $4,381 per ounce, mainly due to technical selling pressure caused by over - heated bullish sentiment in overseas markets after nine consecutive weeks of price increases [3] - The fundamental logic supporting the upward trend of gold prices remains unchanged, and the current decline has sufficiently released short - term risks, so the price correction is a "comma" in the long - term upward trend [3] - The ebb of risk - aversion sentiment is an important factor driving the decline in gold prices, and investors' high - level profit - taking is a reasonable and necessary operation [3] - Even if gold prices stop falling at the current level, they may not immediately resume a rapid upward trend. Attention should be paid to the change in volatility, and a stable and declining volatility may indicate the approaching of the next upward cycle [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Interest Rates - A 25 - basis - point interest rate cut this week is almost certain. The expected interest rate cuts by the end of 2025 have been revised down to 48.4bps, 3bps less than the previous week, mainly due to the cooling of risk - aversion sentiment [7] - The September CPI reading showed no upward inflation risk. The core CPI increased by 0.2% month - on - month, lower than the expected 0.3%, with a year - on - year growth rate of 3% [7] - Last week, the yields of U.S. Treasury bonds at different maturities diverged, with the 30 - year UST yield falling by 0.77bps to 4.6%, the 10 - year UST yield falling by 0.23bps to 4.01%, and the 2 - year UST yield rising by 2.27bps to 3.49%, causing the yield curve to flatten [11] Fed's Operations - The Fed is considering ending the balance - sheet reduction within a few months. Last week, the ONRRP usage volume increased by $6.05 billion to $10.06 billion, corresponding to the rise in TGA balance. The Fed's reserve balance increased by $58 billion to $2.93 trillion [14] Bond Positions - As of September 23, the positions of short - and long - term U.S. Treasury bond interest rates were differentiated. The non - commercial net short positions of 2 - year UST futures decreased by 103,272 contracts to 1,300,198 contracts, while those of 10 - year UST futures increased by 24,817 contracts to 844,116 contracts [18] - As of the week of October 20, the sentiment of JPM's net long - position investors in Treasury bonds was 9, down from the previous week [19] Real Interest Rates - The yields of 5 - year and 10 - year TIPS decreased. The 5 - year TIPS yield fell by 6bps to 1.24%, and the 10 - year TIPS yield fell by 1bp to 1.73% [27] Dollar Index - Last week, the dollar index and the gold price moved in opposite directions. The gold price fell by 3.29%, while the dollar index rose by 0.39% to 98.9, and their rolling correlation increased [35] - The U.S. dollar appreciated by 1.4% against the Japanese yen, remained flat against the euro, and appreciated by 0.5% against the British pound [35] - As of September 23, the total positions of the dollar index increased. The non - commercial long positions increased by 1,541 contracts to 14,000 contracts, and the non - commercial short positions decreased by 1,009 contracts to 24,400 contracts. Short - selling forces were dominant [41] Offshore Dollar Liquidity - Last week, the 3 - month Basis Swap for the Japanese yen and the euro decreased month - on - month, and the financing cost of offshore dollar liquidity increased [44] Inflation Indicators - Last week, the copper - to - gold ratio rose to 2.66, with copper prices rising and gold prices falling, indicating a marginal recovery in global total demand momentum [51] Price Ratios and Volatility - The gold - to - silver ratio fluctuated upwards as the decline of gold prices was smaller than that of silver prices last week; the gold - to - copper ratio decreased as gold prices fell and copper prices rose; the gold - to - oil ratio decreased as oil prices rose and gold prices fell [60] - The correlation between gold and crude oil, copper, and the dollar index decreased from a rolling correlation perspective [68] - Despite the significant decline in the absolute price of gold, the domestic - foreign premium has recently increased, indicating domestic investors' buying behavior [75] Inventory and Positions - Last week, the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 344,400 ounces to 38.688 million ounces, and the COMEX silver inventory decreased by 13.9103 million ounces to 492.557 million ounces; the SHFE gold inventory increased by 0.45 tons to about 87 tons, and the SHFE silver inventory decreased by 91.9 tons to 657.4 tons [80] - The SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased by 19.7 tons to 1,038.9 tons, and the SLV silver ETF holdings decreased by 428.9 tons to 15,340.8 tons [86] - The total COMEX gold positions increased by 12,568 contracts to 529,000 contracts, with non - commercial long positions increasing by 6,030 contracts to 333,000 contracts and non - commercial short positions increasing by 5,691 contracts to 66,000 contracts, showing an increase in the long - buying power for gold allocation [93] - The total COMEX silver positions increased by 2,851 contracts to 165,000 contracts, with non - commercial long positions increasing by 695 contracts to 72,000 contracts and non - commercial short positions decreasing by 43 contracts to 20,000 contracts, showing an increase in the long - buying power for silver allocation [98]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - **Pure Benzene**: The view is bearish. Supply is still abundant this week with no new maintenance capacity. Imports are expected to increase in November. Demand is expected to decrease marginally as the overall downstream operating rate continues to decline. Total inventory is expected to accumulate, and the valuation of pure benzene is low [4]. - **Styrene**: The view is bearish. Supply has decreased this week due to poor profits and multiple device overhauls. Demand for the three S products is stable overall, but the market sentiment has not fully recovered, and finished - product inventory is still accumulating. Port inventory is expected to accumulate in November, and the valuation of styrene is low [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Pure Benzene - **Supply**: Real - time supply is abundant. There was no new maintenance last week, and the maintenance volume is expected to decline in November. Hydrogenated benzene has more parked capacity. Imports in the first 20 days of October decreased by about 60,000 tons month - on - month, and are expected to rebound in November [4][20]. - **Demand**: The overall downstream operating rate may weaken, and profits remain low. The demand for styrene is weak, and the overall demand for pure benzene is expected to gradually weaken [21][33]. - **Inventory**: The East China port inventory of pure benzene last week was 100,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,000 tons. Overall, the fundamentals of pure benzene are under pressure, and port inventory may accumulate in the future [50]. - **Valuation**: The BZN spread is low, and the valuation of pure benzene is low due to abundant supply in the Asian region [50]. - **External Market Support**: The US - Asia arbitrage window is closed. In North America, the styrene demand is weak; in Western Europe, the supply of benzene is in surplus, and downstream demand is expected to further weaken; in Asia, some South Korean producers have reduced their loads, and the operating rate of Chinese downstream industries has declined [51][56]. Styrene - **Supply**: There were new overhauls last week, and the maintenance volume is expected to remain high in November. The supply in November is expected to decrease month - on - month [60][61]. - **Demand**: The overall downstream profits are good, but the demand for the three S products is still weak. The market sentiment has not fully recovered, and sales are mainly for rigid demand. Multiple devices of ABS are expected to be put into production from November to December, and the output of ABS is expected to increase [80][101]. - **Inventory**: The overall port inventory increased to 235,500 tons last week. Styrene is expected to accumulate inventory in the future [94][100]. - **Valuation**: The BZ - SM spread is weak, and the valuation of styrene is low [7]. - **External Market Support**: In North America, downstream demand is poor, and supply is in surplus; in Western Europe, demand is weak, and the operating rate is low due to low profits; in Asia, demand outside China is generally weak [119]. Pricing Logic - **Styrene Basis**: The basis is weak due to weak downstream demand and high inventory. The styrene futures price structure is in a contango, indicating a pessimistic outlook [108]. - **Pure Benzene Monthly Spread**: The downstream demand is weak, and supply is relatively high, so the paper - goods monthly spread is expected to be weak [108]. Profit Situation - **Styrene Profit**: Currently, styrene is in excess supply, and with future production increases, profits may further decline or remain at a low level [111].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Supply remains high, downstream profits have significantly declined, and demand may continue to decline. However, downstream finished product inventories are still being reduced. In the short term, futures prices may remain strong, but there is a possibility of weakening [3]. - The monthly spread may remain volatile in the short term [3]. - The trading volume of iron ore spot has increased, while the trading volume of forward contracts has declined from a high level. The basis rate of the 01 contract is around 4.6%, the basis has slightly declined, and the basis rate has decreased [3]. - This week, the iron ore output of 247 samples announced by Steel Union was 239.9 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.05 tons. The average daily iron ore output in October was about 239.9 tons. Short-term demand has slightly decreased, and iron ore output may decline slowly [3]. - The inventory of 45 ports has increased by 139 tons week-on-week, and the proportion of trade ore is 64.1%. The total inventory of imported ore by steel mills has increased by 97 tons, the inventory at the plant has decreased by 36 tons, and the sum of sea - floating and port inventory has increased by 133 tons. The available days of imported ore have remained unchanged at 20 days [3]. - The profits of finished products have continued to decline significantly; the price difference between scrap iron in Tangshan has decreased; the proportion of lump ore in the furnace has slightly decreased, the proportion of pellet ore in the furnace has decreased; and the proportion of sinter in the furnace has continued to increase [3]. - The average value of the MA index in October was 104, corresponding to a disk valuation of about 822 [3]. - The premium of Jinbabu powder has weakened; the premiums of mainstream medium - and low - grade ores have remained stable; and the price difference between domestic and foreign ores has remained stable [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - On October 26, 2025, the 7 - day moving average shipment volume of global iron ore (excluding mainland China) was 4,655 thousand tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.3% and a year - on - year increase of 2.89%. The 7 - day moving average shipment volume of Australia was 2,751 thousand tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.9% and a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. The 7 - day moving average shipment volume of Brazil was 1,196 thousand tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.1% and a year - on - year increase of 5% [24]. - According to the iron ore balance sheet, the total supply in 2025/10 was 13,237, with production of 2,529 and imports of 10,708. Exports were 147. The total supply cumulative year - on - year growth rate was 0.1% [181]. Demand - The iron ore output of 247 samples was 239.9 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.05 tons. The average daily iron ore output in October was about 239.9 tons. Short - term demand has slightly decreased, and iron ore output may decline slowly [3]. - According to the balance sheet, the consumption in 2025/10 was 12,081, and the total consumption was 12,229 [181]. Inventory - The inventory of 45 ports increased by 139 tons week - on - week, and the proportion of trade ore was 64.1%. The total inventory of imported ore by steel mills increased by 97 tons, the inventory at the plant decreased by 36 tons, and the sum of sea - floating and port inventory increased by 133 tons. The available days of imported ore remained unchanged at 20 days [3]. Price and Basis - The basis rate of the 01 contract is around 4.6%, the basis has slightly declined, and the basis rate has decreased. The 1 - 5 monthly spread has shown a narrow - range oscillation [3][158]. - The prices of various iron ore varieties in the spot market have changed to different degrees. For example, on October 27, 2025, the price of PB powder was 791 yuan/wet ton, with a daily change of 1 and a weekly change of 4 [160]. Market Outlook - Supply remains high, downstream profits have significantly declined, and demand may continue to decline. However, downstream finished product inventories are still being reduced. In the short term, futures prices may remain strong, but there is a possibility of weakening [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core view on nickel is that it will experience a sideways trend. The stable price of nickel ore at the raw material end provides cost support for the industrial chain. Recently, the continuous increase in nickel inventories at home and abroad has gradually shown an oversupply pressure, limiting the upside space for nickel prices. In the medium to long term, the global fiscal and monetary easing cycle, combined with the start of the new annual RKAB approval in Indonesia, will inject potential upward momentum into nickel prices [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel Market Overview - **Price and Inventory**: Last week, the main contract of Shanghai nickel (2511) opened at 122,190 yuan/ton and closed at 121,160 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.83%. As of October 20, the spot price of electrolytic nickel decreased by 350 yuan/ton week-on-week to 122,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.24%. As of October 17, the social inventory of refined nickel (including the SHFE) increased by 4,014 tons week-on-week to 47,700 tons, a rise of 9.19% [7][13][45]. - **Export and Import Profits**: As of October 17, the LME nickel price decreased by 105 dollars/ton week-on-week to 15,110 dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.69%. The import profit and loss of electrolytic nickel increased by 805.27 yuan/ton week-on-week to -677.13 yuan/ton, a rise of 54.32%, while the export profit and loss decreased by 52.13 dollars/ton to -66.76 dollars/ton [18]. - **NPI and Sulfuric Acid Nickel Prices**: As of October 21, the average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 11 yuan/nickel point week-on-week to 936 yuan/nickel point, a decrease of 1.16%. As of October 20, the average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate increased by 150 yuan/ton week-on-week to 28,550 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.53% [24]. Nickel Ore - **Price and Supply**: As of October 20, the CIF prices of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% Philippine laterite nickel ore remained flat week-on-week at 29, 57, and 78.5 dollars/wet ton respectively. As of October 17, the ex - factory prices of Ni1.2% and Ni1.6% domestic trade nickel ore in Indonesia increased by 0 and 0.1 dollars/wet ton week-on-week to 23 and 52.8 dollars/wet ton respectively. The freight rates from the Philippines to Tianjin Port and Lianyungang remained flat week-on-week at 12.5 and 11.5 dollars/wet ton respectively [29]. - **Inventory and Import**: As of October 17, the nickel ore port inventory increased by 30,000 tons week-on-week to 10.53 million wet tons, a rise of 0.29%, equivalent to about 87,200 nickel tons in metal content. In September 2025, the national nickel ore import volume was 6.1145 million tons, a decrease of 3.51% month-on-month and an increase of 34.43% year-on-year [31]. Refined Nickel - **Production and Trade**: As of September 2025, China's monthly electrolytic nickel production increased by 400 tons month-on-month to 35,600 tons, a rise of 1.14% month-on-month and 13.07% year-on-year. The monthly export volume of refined nickel was 14,100 tons, a decrease of 6.22% month-on-month and an increase of 33.21% year-on-year, while the monthly import volume was 28,400 tons, an increase of 17.29% month-on-month and 378.85% year-on-year [44]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of September 2025, the average production cost of SMM electrolytic nickel increased by 82 dollars/ton month-on-month to 13,136 dollars/ton, a rise of 0.63%. The production costs of integrated MHP and high - grade nickel matte for producing electrowon nickel decreased by 723 and 1,168 yuan/ton respectively to 116,448 yuan/ton and 124,802 yuan/ton, and the profit margins increased by 1.2 and 1.4 percentage points respectively to 4.4% and -2.6% [51]. Sulfuric Acid Nickel - **Production and Trade**: As of September 2025, China's monthly sulfuric acid nickel production increased by 3,500 tons month-on-month to 34,000 nickel tons, a rise of 11.45%. The monthly import volume was 29,500 tons, a decrease of 2.51% month-on-month and an increase of 36.24% year-on-year, while the monthly export volume was 806.42 tons, an increase of 58.96% month-on-month and a decrease of 75.81% year-on-year [58]. - **Cost and Profit**: Recently, the coefficients of major primary raw materials such as MHP and high - grade nickel matte have remained basically stable. As of October 20, the profit margins of MHP, nickel beans, high - grade nickel matte, and yellow slag for producing sulfuric acid nickel increased by 1.3, 0.1, 1.4, and 0.1 percentage points respectively week-on-week to 0.5%, -0.5%, 7%, and 0% [62]. Ferronickel - **Production and Price**: As of September 2025, the national ferronickel production (in metal content) decreased by 2,300 tons month-on-month to 22,900 tons, a decrease of 9.30%. The production in Indonesia increased by 2,000 tons month-on-month to 139,900 nickel tons, a rise of 1.45%. As of October 21, the average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 11 yuan/nickel point week-on-week to 936 yuan/nickel point, a decrease of 1.16% [24][73]. - **Inventory and Profit**: As of October 15, the ferronickel inventory in major domestic regions decreased by 174 tons compared to September 30 to 29,100 nickel tons (average grade of 11.48%), a decrease of 0.60%. As of October 20, the cash production cost of RKEF in Fujian increased by 0.97 yuan/nickel point week-on-week to 1,000.02 yuan/nickel point, and the production profit margin decreased by 1.49 percentage points to -6.25% [78]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Market**: Last week, the main contract of stainless steel (ss2512) opened at 12,800 yuan/ton and closed at 12,630 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.17%. As of October 20, the price of 304/2B coil - rough edge in Wuxi remained flat week-on-week at 13,000 yuan/ton [83]. - **Production and Inventory**: As of October 2025, the national stainless steel crude steel production plan was 3.4472 million tons, an increase of 0.60% month-on-month and 4.75% year-on-year. As of October 17, the social inventory of stainless steel decreased by 12,400 tons week-on-week to 1.0412 million tons, a decrease of 1.18%. As of October 21, the number of stainless steel warehouse receipts decreased by 1.0 ton week-on-week to 74,500 tons, a decrease of 11.83% [86][89]. - **Cost and Profit**: After the holiday, the cost of stainless steel decreased. The price of high - nickel iron dropped to 940 yuan/nickel point, and the price of high - carbon ferrochrome dropped to 8,400 yuan/50 - base ton. The price of 304 scrap stainless steel was 9,400 yuan/ton (ex - tax), a decrease of 100 yuan/ton compared to before the holiday. The production cost of stainless steel is in an inverted state [94].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PTA: Core view - Neutral; Spot - Cautiously bearish; Cost - Neutral; Device changes - Cautiously bearish; Downstream demand - Neutral; Supply - demand balance - Cautiously bearish; Processing profit - Cautiously bullish [5] - PX: Core view - Neutral; Spot - Neutral; Device changes - Cautiously bearish; Import - Neutral; Downstream demand - Cautiously bullish; Supply - demand balance - Neutral; Processing profit - Neutral [6] - Ethylene glycol: Core view - Neutral; Spot - Neutral; Device changes - Cautiously bearish; Import - Neutral; Downstream demand - Neutral; Supply - demand balance - Cautiously bearish; Processing profit - Cautiously bullish [7] 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: PTA supply - demand changes are small, with expected inventory accumulation. Crude oil and the PTA - Brent oil spread are at relatively low levels, and there is limited downward space in the short term. The far - month is expected to be better than the near - term. The spot market is weak, and the cost side is neutral. There is inventory accumulation pressure from November to December [5][59]. - PX: PTA has planned production capacity, PX supply - demand is acceptable, the spot market is tight, PXN has recovered, and the valuation is relatively reasonable. It will follow the cost in the short term. The supply - demand balance pressure from October to November is not large, and the inventory is not high [6]. - Ethylene glycol: The price of the ethylene glycol industry chain is at a low level. The supply is difficult to clear, and there is a lack of short - term supply - demand drivers. Attention should be paid to the impact of sanctions. There is inventory accumulation pressure from October [7]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs PTA - **Device Changes**: PTA device maintenance is in progress as planned. YS New Material has restarted, YS Ningbo reduced its load due to weather, Hengli 1 is under maintenance, and YS Hainan, Dahua, and Zhongtai are under maintenance. Dushan's new device has a trial - run plan next week, and Dushan 1 has a maintenance plan [46][59]. - **Inventory**: As of October 17, PTA social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) increased to 217.6 tons, up 1.6 tons. The market basis is weakly stable [50]. - **Balance Sheet**: In October, it is balanced, but there is significant inventory accumulation pressure from November to December. The valuation is not high, the cost is weak, and the fundamentals are weak [58][59]. - **Demand**: As of October 17, the polyester operating rate was 91.4%, remaining at a high level. The operating rate assessment for October - November is 91.5% (+0.5%) and 90% (+1%). After the holiday, the load of texturing, weaving, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang remained stable at 80%, 69%, and 78%. Autumn and winter orders are acceptable [59]. PX - **Device Changes**: The domestic PX load is 84.9%, and the Asian load is 78%. Wushi Petrochemical is under planned maintenance, Yangzi Petrochemical and Hengli slightly reduced their loads, and Shenghong Petrochemical slightly increased its load. Overseas, FCFC in Taiwan, China (720,000 tons) is under maintenance, and PTTG has a maintenance plan in late October [81][86]. - **Balance Sheet**: In the fourth quarter, the PX balance remains low, the spot floating price has slightly improved, and PXN has recovered. It will follow the cost in the short term [86]. - **Market Conditions**: The spread between the PX outer and inner markets has narrowed, the PX 11 - January spread is weak, and the TA01 processing fee is weak [87]. Ethylene Glycol - **Device Changes**: The overall domestic load is 77.16%, and the synthetic - gas - based load is 81.89%. CNOOC Shell has restarted after maintenance, Fulian is under maintenance, Shenghong has a maintenance plan in the second half of the month, and Yulong has restarted at 60% capacity. Some coal - chemical devices are under maintenance or restarted. Overseas, Formosa Plastics' No. 1 plant in Taiwan, China, Maoming Petrochemical, and Shell in the US and Canada are under maintenance [100][117]. - **Inventory**: As of October 13, the port inventory in East China was about 579,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 38,000 tons. The arrival volume is moderately low, and the short - term port inventory is expected to remain stable with a slight decline. The polyester factory's raw - material inventory days are 12.5 days (-0.3) [127]. - **Balance Sheet**: In October, it is in a loose balance, and inventory accumulates rapidly from November to December. The market lacks upward drivers and is weak in the short term [129][132].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - PTA: Cautiously bearish [3] - PX: Neutral [4] - Ethylene Glycol: Cautiously bearish [5] Core Views - PTA supply and demand are nearly balanced, with expected inventory accumulation pressure, lacking drivers, and being significantly affected by crude oil costs and macro - tariff changes, and is short - term bearish [3]. - PX maintains a dynamic balance, with stable PXN. Short - term costs and macro factors are bearish, so it is short - term bearish [4]. - Ethylene glycol is priced based on expectations. A significant price drop is unlikely to lead to supply clearance, and it remains short - term bearish [5]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs PTA - **Overall Situation**: PTA supply devices are under planned maintenance, polyester load is high, and it is balanced from September to October. It has low valuation, lacks drivers, and short - term follows crude oil fluctuations [46]. - **Device Changes**: In October, many devices are under maintenance. For example, Hengli Dalian 1 was under planned maintenance on the 9th, YS New Materials reduced its load to 50 - 60% on the 7th and restarted on the 13th. YS Hainan, Dahua, and Zhongtai are under maintenance. Sichuan Energy Investment plans to have a two - week maintenance in late October. In November, Dushan, Ineos, and Honggang have maintenance plans [36][37]. - **Inventory**: As of October 10, PTA social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) increased to 217 tons, up 3.8 tons, and the market basis is weakly stable [38]. - **Balance Sheet**: From September to October, supply and demand are balanced, and there is inventory accumulation pressure starting from November. It has low valuation, is greatly affected by crude oil and macro factors, and is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [46]. - **Downstream Demand**: After the holiday, the polyester start - up rate was 91.5%, remaining at a high level. The start - up rates of texturing, weaving, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces rebounded to 81%, 69%, and 78% respectively. After - holiday orders have poor sustainability [46]. - **Seat Net Position**: The net short position of foreign - funded futures company seats continues to increase [47]. PX - **Overall Situation**: PX maintains a dynamic balance in the fourth quarter, with supply expected to increase and demand being average. PXN remains around $220, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [71]. - **Device Changes**: Domestic PX load is 87.4%, and Asian load is 79.9%, both being relatively high. Domestically, Tianjin Petrochemical restarted, Daxie increased its load, and Wushi Petrochemical plans a two - week maintenance on October 14. In Asia, Malaysia Aromatics and Hanwha's 1.13 million - ton device restarted, Idemitsu's 260,000 - ton device is under maintenance. Taiwan FCFC's 720,000 - ton device plans a two - week maintenance, and Saudi Arabia plans a two - week maintenance in late October [67]. - **Balance Sheet**: PX maintains balance in the fourth quarter, with average expectations, lacking drivers, and short - term following oil price fluctuations [71]. - **Price Difference**: The spread between PX outer and inner markets narrows, the 11 - January spread of PX weakens, and TA01 processing fee remains stable at a low level [72]. - **Industrial Chain Spread**: The industrial chain profit weakens slightly. The PTA - crude oil spread is at a low level, PXN rebounds slightly, and PTA processing fee remains low [75]. Ethylene Glycol - **Overall Situation**: Ethylene glycol supply is under planned maintenance, demand load is high, the current situation is okay, but inventory accumulates after the holiday, and the expectation is poor. A significant price drop is unlikely to lead to supply feedback, and it is short - term bearish [119]. - **Device Changes**: The overall load is at a high level of 75%, and the syngas load is 78.8%. CNOOC Shell plans a one - week maintenance, Satellite restarts. Fulaian and Shenghong plan maintenance in late October. Yulong's 900,000 - ton device had a short - term shutdown during the holiday. In coal - chemical industry, Tianye and Shenhua Yulin restarted, Jianyuan and Meijin are under maintenance, and Tianying is expected to shut down until next year. Overseas, Shell in the US and Canada is under maintenance, Taiwan Nanya's 360,000 - ton device is under maintenance, Singapore Aster is under maintenance, and Petronas is shut down [88][104][119]. - **Inventory**: As of October 13, the inventory in East China's main ports is about 541,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 34,000 tons. It is in the process of rising from a historically low level. The arrival volume is high, and the pick - up is average, so inventory is accumulating [116]. - **Balance Sheet**: The pressure on loose balance from September to October is not large, but inventory accumulates rapidly starting from November. The market trades based on expectations, lacks drivers, and is short - term bearish [119]. - **Profit**: Ethylene glycol profit is compressed. Oil - based production remains in loss, and coal - based production has limited loss [92]. - **Downstream Inventory**: Polyester factories' ethylene glycol raw material inventory days are 12.8 days (+0.3), and downstream inventory slightly increases [112].