作者：王琪瑶 从业资格证号：F03113363 交易咨询证号：Z0018762 研究联系方式：wangqiyao@zjtfqh.com 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 审核：李文涛 交易咨询证号：Z0015640 | 核心观点 | 中性 | 巴西中南部糖产量可能不及此前，但是全球丰产周期下对原糖形成明显压制。国内配额外利润打开，7-8月进口 糖加速到港，推动内外正套走出。中期处于寻底过程，下方新糖成本作为支撑，上方空间为增产预期差。 | | --- | --- | --- | | 国外生产 | 偏空 | 25/26榨季巴西中南部预期4000万吨，小幅下调；印度25/26存增产预期达3500万吨；泰国维持小幅增产。 | | 国内产销 | 偏多 | 截至2025年7月底，全国累计销售食糖955万吨，同比增加130万吨，增幅15.7%;累计销糖率85.6%，同比加快2.7 个百分点。 | | 进口利润 | 偏空 | 配额外利润打开，7-9月进口放量；糖浆管制部分放开，预计后期会增加糖浆进口。 | | 整体库存 | | 中性偏多7月食糖工业库存161万吨，同比减少10万吨，减幅5.8%。 | | 醇油 | | ...

交易咨询证号：Z0015640 交易咨询证号：Z0021508 邮箱：chenlinxuan@zjtfqh.com 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 从业资格证号：F03108575 碳酸锂周报 2 0 2 5 / 9 / 8 作者：陈琳萱 审核：李文涛 | 核心观点 | 震荡 | 供应端在锂辉石开工率上调、其他新产线投放的情况下，产出绝对量保持稳定，同时需求环比继续增长，从库销比的角度看，库存压力较 为有限，当前基本面现状暂无趋势性驱动。而市场对于矿端不确定性的反应仍然灵敏，兑现至盘面表现为波动不减，但矿端如何处理的结 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 论各有说辞，导致供应预期的交易难度加大，建议短期内轻仓操作，后期等待矿端实际处理结果落地后再做计价。 | | 碳酸锂现货价格 | 偏多 | 上周电池级碳酸锂现货价格+6850元/吨至7.48万元/吨。 | | 月差 | 中性 | 暂无新驱动。 | | 锂矿-港口可售库存 | 偏空 | 截至9月5日，国内主港贸易商库存、及仓库待售总库存较8月29日-1.2至9.3万吨。 | | 锂矿-进口价格 | 偏多 | 上周澳大利亚、巴西锂辉石精 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the PVC industry is neutral, with some aspects having a neutral - to - bullish or neutral - to - bearish tendency [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - Fundamentally, PVC production has increased, and the industry chain has seen double inventory accumulation, increasing pressure on PVC. The futures price will continue to return to fundamental pricing, but the valuation is already low [3] - The 1 - 5 month spread of PVC futures is expected to fluctuate weakly [3] - The raw material support is neutral. The production of calcium carbide has slightly increased and stabilized, with the price of Wuhai calcium carbide at 2,350 yuan/ton, and the price of semi - coke medium - grade material at 660 yuan/ton, also stable [3] - The supply side shows a neutral trend, with domestic PVC production increasing. The overall operating rate of PVC powder is 76.18%, a 2.85 - percentage - point increase. The operating rate of calcium - carbide - based PVC powder is 77.65%, up 2.41 percentage points, and that of ethylene - based PVC powder is 72.59%, up 3.93 percentage points [3] - The demand side is neutral - to - bearish. The operating rate of downstream products is at a low level. Exports were good in July, but the Indian tariff has been implemented. The industry chain has double inventory accumulation [3] - The profit situation is neutral - to - bullish. The profit of single - PVC is at a low level, and the comprehensive profit is weakening. The profit per ton of calcium - carbide integration is - 562 yuan, that of Shandong's externally - purchased calcium - carbide method is - 836 yuan/ton, and the profit of North China's ethylene - based method is 354 yuan/ton. The northwest comprehensive profit is 329 yuan/ton, the North China comprehensive profit is - 170 yuan/ton, and the double - ton price difference is 3,129 yuan [3] - The macro environment is neutral. The probability of an interest - rate cut in September has increased, and some domestic regions have introduced new real - estate policies [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Lanthanum Coke and Calcium Carbide - Lanthanum coke production has declined. The operating rate of sample enterprises is 54.87%, a 1.83 - percentage - point decrease from last week. The price of Shenmu medium - grade material is 660 yuan/ton, the same as last week [6] - Calcium carbide supply has slightly decreased. The operating rate has dropped 0.59 percentage points to 71.91%, and the overall operating rate is at a relatively low level. The price of Wuhai calcium carbide is 2,350 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [12][13] 3.2 PVC Production - The overall operating rate of PVC powder this week is 76.18%, a 2.85 - percentage - point increase compared to the previous period. The operating rate of calcium - carbide - based PVC powder is 77.65%, up 2.41 percentage points, and that of ethylene - based PVC powder is 72.59%, up 3.93 percentage points [18] 3.3 PVC Downstream Demand - The operating rate of downstream products is low. The operating rate of pipes is 33.48% (- 0.13%), and that of profiles is 38.39% (- 4.21%), both lower than the same period last year [26] 3.4 PVC Inventory - Social inventory has increased. The social inventory is 83.79 million tons, an increase of 1.89 million tons from the previous period. Among them, the inventory of East China samples is 78.94 million tons, an increase of 2.29 million tons, and the inventory of South China samples is 4.85 million tons, a decrease of 0.4 million tons [29] - The upstream factory inventory has also increased. The factory inventory is 27.12 million tons, an increase of 0.23 million tons from the previous period [29] - The industry - chain inventory has accumulated [29] 3.5 PVC Profit - The loss of calcium - carbide integration has slightly widened. The profit of Xinjiang integration is 637 yuan/ton, and that of northwest integration is - 1,145 yuan/ton [35] - The profit of the externally - purchased calcium - carbide method has declined. The profit per ton of the northwest externally - purchased calcium - carbide method is - 562 yuan, and that of the North China externally - purchased calcium - carbide method is - 836 yuan/ton [35] - The profit of the externally - purchased ethylene method has decreased. The profit of East China's ethylene - based method is 354 yuan/ton, and that of North China's ethylene - based method is 504 yuan/ton, weaker than last week [38] - The comprehensive profit is weakening. The northwest comprehensive profit is 329 yuan/ton, and the Shandong comprehensive profit is - 170 yuan/ton. The double - ton price difference has slightly decreased to 3,129 yuan/ton [46] 3.6 Import and Export - From January to July, PVC exports increased year - on - year. The export volume of PVC powder from January to July was 2.29 million tons, an increase of 831,000 tons (+ 57%), with strong exports in July. The import volume of PVC powder from January to July was 148,700 tons, basically the same as last year [51] - From January to July, the cumulative export of PVC flooring was 2.45 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.15% [54] 3.7 Related Commodities - Since 2024, the demand in the real - estate industry has continued to weaken, the cement price has declined, and the operating rate is at a low level [59] 3.8 Futures - Spot Analysis - The futures price is fluctuating weakly. The 01 contract has dropped from 4,949 last week to 4,913 at yesterday's close [70] - The 1 - 5 month spread is fluctuating. The 1 - 5 month spread is - 310 [70] - The number of registered warehouse receipts continues to increase. On September 5, the number of warehouse receipts was 90,000, an increase of 5,940 from last week [70] 3.9 PVC Balance Sheet - The monthly balance sheet shows the production, demand, import, and other data of PVC from January 2025 to December 2025, with fluctuations in production and demand year - on - year and cumulative year - on - year [72]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Core view: Neutral [3] - Month spread: Neutral [3] - Steel mill profit: Neutral [3] - Scrap steel: Bullish [3] - Finished product inventory: Neutral [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The market fluctuated and consolidated last week. Hot metal production declined significantly but remained positive year-on-year. Northern steel mills are gradually resuming production, with hot metal expected to rise significantly next week. Rebar production fell, inventories increased substantially, and apparent demand declined. Hot-rolled coil production dropped sharply, inventories increased month-on-month, and apparent demand decreased significantly. The total output of five finished steel products decreased month-on-month, inventories continued to accumulate, and demand declined month-on-month. Long-process steel mill profits continued to narrow, with some mills incurring losses. Short-process steel mills had losses during off-peak hours. The first round of coke price cuts is about to be implemented. Attention should be paid to the recovery of hot metal production and the resumption of exports [3]. - The month spread structure is contango, showing a continuous reverse spread trend. The market feedback indicates that there will be significant pressure on rebar warehouse receipts in the later period, and attention should be paid to delivery [3]. - The profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises this week was 61.04%, a slight month-on-month decline [3]. - According to calculations, current on-peak production at East China EAF plants results in a loss of 222 yuan per ton of steel, and off-peak production results in a loss of 95 yuan per ton [3]. - The inventory of five finished steel products is accumulating, and the overall inventory remains at a low level. Rebar inventory has exceeded last year's level, and billet inventory is increasing. Attention should be paid to subsequent changes in overall inventory [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Production - As of September 8, 2025, the daily average pig iron output was 2.2884 million tons, a significant month-on-month decline of 112,900 tons but still showing positive year-on-year growth. Northern steel mills have resumed production one after another, and attention should be paid to the recovery of hot metal [12]. - According to Mysteel research data, the national blast furnace operating rate of 247 enterprises this week was 80.4%, a slight month-on-month decline; the capacity utilization rate of 85 electric arc furnaces was 55.74% [12]. - This week, the total output of five major steel products was 8.6065 million tons, a decrease of 239,600 tons compared to last week. Among them, rebar production was 2.1868 million tons, a decrease of 18,800 tons compared to last week. Hot-rolled coil production was 3.1424 million tons, a significant decrease of 105,000 tons compared to last week. Cold-rolled production increased slightly, and medium and heavy plate production decreased significantly, both significantly higher than historical levels [20]. 3.2 Demand - In terms of demand, the total consumption of five major steel products this week was 8.2783 million tons, a month-on-month decline of 299,400 tons, slightly lower than the same period last year. Rebar weekly consumption was 2.021 million tons, a month-on-month decline of 21,400 tons. Hot-rolled coil consumption was 3.0536 million tons, a significant month-on-month decrease of 153,600 tons [40]. - Cement direct supply decreased slightly. This week's trading volume decreased slightly month-on-month. The trading volume in the north decreased significantly compared to the same period last year, while the trading volume in the south decreased slightly month-on-month. The trading volume in the East China region was relatively stable but significantly lower than the same period last year [40][54]. 3.3 Inventory - This week, the billet inventory of 55 billet-rolling plants was 596,800 tons, continuing to accumulate month-on-month and significantly higher than the same period last year. The billet inventory in mainstream warehouses was 1.4215 million tons, increasing month-on-month and slightly lower than the same period [67]. - The total inventory of five major steel products, including both steel mills and social inventories, is increasing [55]. 3.4 Valuation - Rebar warehouse receipts are continuously increasing and are at a high level compared to the same period in history. The market feedback indicates that there will still be a large number of warehouse receipts in the future. Hot-rolled coil warehouse receipts remain at a low level, a historical low for the same period [105].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The long - term bearish trend of nickel fundamentals remains unchanged. Affected by events in major producing countries, recent market fluctuations have increased. The unrest mainly occurred in the capital area of Indonesia and was short - lived, causing no substantial impact on nickel supply. In the short term, the contradiction in refined nickel is not prominent. Based on repeated macro - expectations, nickel prices are likely to fluctuate widely [3][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Nickel - **Price and Market Performance**: Last week, the Shanghai Nickel main contract 2510 opened at 119,550 yuan/ton, closed at 121,700 yuan/ton, with a weekly high of 122,690 yuan/ton and a low of 119,530 yuan/ton, up 1.75% for the week. As of September 1, the electrolytic nickel spot price increased by 3,050 yuan/ton to 124,300 yuan/ton week - on - week, a 2.52% increase [8][11]. - **Supply and Demand Factors** - **Nickel Ore**: As of September 1, the CIF prices of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% Philippine laterite nickel ore were flat at 29, 57, and 78.5 US dollars/wet ton respectively compared with last week. As of August 29, the ex - factory prices of Indonesian Ni1.2% and Ni1.6% domestic trade nickel ore were flat at 24.5 and 52.2 US dollars/wet ton respectively compared with last week. Last week, the freight rates from the Philippines to Tianjin Port and Lianyungang increased by 0.5 US dollars to 12.5 and 11.5 US dollars/wet ton respectively [28]. - **Refined Nickel**: As of August 2025, China's monthly electrolytic nickel production increased by 0.24 million tons to 3.52 million tons month - on - month, a 7.32% increase and a 20.55% increase year - on - year. As of September 1, SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 519 tons to 21,800 tons week - on - week, a 2.33% decrease. LME nickel warehouse receipts increased by 696 tons to 209,800 tons week - on - week, a 0.33% increase. Last week, the social inventory of pure nickel (including the Shanghai Futures Exchange) decreased by 1,402 tons to 39,500 tons week - on - week, a 3.43% decrease [38][40]. - **Nickel Iron**: As of August 2025, the national nickel pig iron production (metal content) increased by 0.08 million tons to 2.53 million tons month - on - month, a 3.02% increase. As of September 1, the average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased by 12.5 yuan/nickel point to 943 yuan/nickel point week - on - week, a 1.34% increase [67][23]. - **Sulfuric Acid Nickel**: As of July 2025, China's monthly sulfuric acid nickel production increased by 0.43 million tons to 2.91 million nickel tons month - on - month, a 17.3% increase. As of September 1, the average price of battery - grade sulfuric acid nickel increased by 160 yuan/ton to 27,800 yuan/ton week - on - week, a 0.58% increase [52][23]. - **Stainless Steel**: As of September 2025, the national stainless - steel crude steel production is estimated to increase by 3.74% to 3.4021 million tons month - on - month. As of August 29, the stainless - steel social inventory decreased by 0.88 million tons to 1.083 million tons week - on - week, a 0.81% decrease [81][84]. Monthly Balance Sheet - From January to December 2025, the total nickel production ranges from 8.2 to 9.0 million tons, imports from 9.8 to 12.5 million tons, exports from 1.3 to 2.2 million tons, and total consumption from 17.3 to 19.2 million tons. There are periods of surplus and shortage, with supply and consumption showing different year - on - year and cumulative year - on - year changes [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views PTA - The PTA balance shows less - than - expected destocking month - on - month. It maintains a tight balance in September, with minor current supply - demand contradictions. Attention should be paid to the lower support [5][50]. PX - PX is in a tight - balance state for the polyester industry. There are few changes in maintenance, and the balance pressure is low. It should be operated with low - level oscillations, and its elasticity comes from PXN [6][72]. Ethylene Glycol - Ethylene glycol has a record - low port inventory, and it is difficult to accumulate inventory in the short term. The existing supply is high. With new device commissioning plans, the short - term outlook is cautiously bullish, and it should be treated as a low - buying opportunity during oscillations [7][107]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Attention to the Peak Demand Season Expectation - Terminal orders have shown partial improvement, and the weaving operation rate has slightly increased. The operation rates of texturing, weaving, and dyeing are 79% (+7%), 68% (+5%), and 72% (+5%) respectively. Downstream raw material inventory is 10 - 20 days, and orders have slightly improved. The market anticipates a seasonal improvement in the peak season [9]. PTA Tight Balance - **Device Changes**: PTA device maintenance is less than expected. Hengli has one line under maintenance, and the other is undetermined. Dushan Energy is under maintenance, Fuhai Chuang's restart is postponed to mid - September, and new lines of Sanfangxiang are operating stably while the old line will stop after the new one stabilizes. YS Hainan and YS Dahua are under planned maintenance [43][50]. - **Inventory**: As of August 22, PTA social inventory remained stable, with a decrease of 8.3 tons to 212 tons (excluding credit warehouse receipts). The balance in September is tight [44]. - **Supply - Demand**: The PTA balance destocking is slightly less than expected. It maintains a tight balance from August to September. The supply side has device maintenance, and the demand side has stable polyester load and slightly improved weaving orders [50]. PX with Elasticity - **Supply**: The domestic PX load changes little, with a domestic load of 83.3% and an Asian load of 75.6%. Jinling Petrochemical slightly reduced its load, Fuhai Chuang will restart in early September, and Daxie plans to increase its load in September. Overseas, Idemitsu restarted, and Saudi Arabia slightly increased its load [72]. - **Balance**: The PX balance is acceptable, with PXN compressed to around $250 +. It should be operated with short - term oscillations [72]. EG Low Inventory and General Expectation - **Device Changes**: The overall domestic ethylene glycol load is 75%, and the coal - based load is 77%. Satellite's one - line maintenance is postponed to early October. Coal - chemical maintenance slightly increases in September. Overseas, Singapore's 900,000 - ton device's restart is postponed for several months [84][107]. - **Inventory**: As of September 1, the ethylene glycol port inventory in the East China main port area was about 44.9 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1 tons, reaching a record low. The arrival volume is expected to be neutral in the short term, and the port inventory is expected to remain stable or slightly decrease [102]. - **Supply - Demand**: The ethylene glycol market has a strong reality of low inventory. The inventory is difficult to accumulate in the short term. The supply is high, and the demand has stable polyester load. It should be operated with short - term oscillations [107]. Spread Structure - No specific analysis of the spread structure is summarized in the report other than showing some price charts of different products such as PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Core view: Neutral [3] - Month spread: Neutral [3] - Steel mill profit: Bearish [3] - Scrap steel: Neutral [3] - Finished product inventory: Neutral [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the market fluctuated downward. Hot metal production decreased slightly but remained in positive year-on-year growth. It is expected that hot metal production will decline significantly next week. Last week, rebar production increased significantly, inventory accumulated substantially, and apparent demand recovered. Hot-rolled coil production decreased slightly, inventory accumulated marginally, and apparent demand declined. The total output of five finished steel products increased slightly week-on-week, inventory accumulated overall, and demand recovered slightly. In terms of valuation, the profits of long-process steel mills continued to narrow, and short-process steel mills had a slight loss during off-peak hours. The eighth round of coke price increase failed, and the market reported expectations of a price cut in the future. Attention should be paid to the subsequent changes in hot metal production and the recovery of exports. The month spread structure is in contango, showing a continuous reverse spread trend. The market reported that there will be significant pressure on rebar warehouse receipts in the future, and attention should be paid to the delivery situation. This week, the profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises was 63.64%, continuing to decline slightly week-on-week. According to calculations, the current loss per ton of steel produced by electric arc furnaces in East China is 158 yuan/ton during peak hours and 30 yuan/ton during off-peak hours. The inventory of five finished steel products is accumulating, and the overall inventory is still at a low level. The billet inventory is accumulating. Attention should be paid to the subsequent changes in overall inventory [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Review - As of August 29, 2025, the average daily pig iron output was 2.4013 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.62 million tons week-on-week, and continued positive year-on-year growth. The national blast furnace operating rate of 247 enterprises was 83.2%, a slight decrease week-on-week; the capacity utilization rate of 85 electric arc furnaces was 56.54%. The profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises was 63.64%, a slight decrease week-on-week [10]. - This week, the total output of five major varieties was 8.8461 million tons, an increase of 0.0655 million tons from last week. Among them, rebar output was 2.2056 million tons, an increase of 0.0591 million tons week-on-week; hot-rolled coil output was 3.2474 million tons, a decrease of 0.005 million tons week-on-week. Cold-rolled output increased slightly, and medium and heavy plate output decreased slightly, both significantly higher than the historical average [12]. - In terms of demand, the total consumption of five major varieties this week was 8.5777 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.0478 million tons, slightly higher than the same period last year. Rebar weekly consumption was 2.0421 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.0941 million tons. Hot-rolled coil consumption was 3.2072 million tons, a decrease of 0.0055 million tons week-on-week [31][34]. - This week, the trading volume decreased slightly week-on-week. The trading volume in the north decreased significantly compared to the same period last year, while that in the south increased slightly but was still lower than the same period last year. The trading volume in East China continued to decline slightly and was significantly lower than the same period last year [52]. - This week, the billet inventory of 55 billet-rolling plants was 555,200 tons, a slight increase week-on-week and still higher than the same period last year. The mainstream warehouse billet inventory was 1.3301 million tons, an increase week-on-week and slightly lower than the same period [68]. Valuation - Rebar warehouse receipts continued to increase and were at a high level compared to the same period in history. The market reported that there will still be a large number of warehouse receipts in the future. Hot-rolled coil warehouse receipts decreased significantly and were at a low level compared to the same period in history [119]. - The table shows the data for each month in 2025, including initial steel mill inventory, initial social inventory, pig iron output, crude steel output, import volume, export volume, total consumption, domestic production-demand balance, ending steel mill inventory, ending social inventory, surplus, year-on-year output growth, year-on-year consumption growth, cumulative year-on-year output growth, and cumulative year-on-year consumption growth [120].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Short - term**: RU is neutral - biased long, NR is neutral. As of August 29, RU and NR prices rose, the RU - NR spread widened, and the RU09 - 01 spread widened. RU's recent frequent rainfall in production areas hindered tapping, leading to tight raw material supply and strong glue prices, with a slight reduction in light - colored rubber inventory. NR was affected by typhoons in Vietnam, with slow supply increase in overseas main production areas, stronger Thai cup - lump prices, and a slight reduction in dark - colored rubber inventory. However, tire开工率 declined, semi - steel tire inventory digestion was slow, and tire exports over - drafted subsequent demand, and domestic demand awaited verification during the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season. It is judged that RU prices will fluctuate widely this week, and NR prices will fluctuate with a slight upward trend [4]. - **Medium - to long - term**: RU is neutral - biased short, NR is neutral - biased short. The factors affecting long - term trends are similar to short - term ones, mainly considering the supply - demand relationship in the tire market and the impact of weather on rubber production [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Market Data** - **Prices**: As of August 29, Thai cup - lump price was 50.5 Thai baht/kg, up 1 Thai baht/kg from last week; Thai glue price was 55.45 Thai baht/kg, up 0.45 Thai baht/kg from last week. Shanghai state - owned whole milk price was 14,900 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton from last week; Shanghai Vietnam 3L price was 15,100 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton from last week; Shanghai RSS3 price was 19,900 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from last week. International prices: Thai standard price was 1,850 US dollars/ton, up 40 US dollars/ton from last week; Indian standard price was 1,730 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars/ton from last week; Thai mixed price was 1,840 US dollars/ton, up 40 US dollars/ton from last week; Malaysian mixed price was 1,830 US dollars/ton, up 40 US dollars/ton from last week [21][71][82]. - **Spreads**: As of August 29, the RU - NR spread was 3,165 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from last week, and it is expected to continue widening. The Thai mixed spot - RU main contract spread was - 1,060 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton from last week. The Thai standard spot - NR main contract spread was 409.7 yuan/ton, up 11.5 yuan/ton from last week; the Thai mixed spot - NR main contract spread was 454.65 yuan/ton, down 9.05 yuan/ton from last week. The RU09 - 01 spread was - 975 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from last week; the RU01 - 05 spread was - 80 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from last week; the NR consecutive one - consecutive two spread was - 30 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from last week; the NR consecutive two - consecutive three spread was - 30 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from last week [4][94][109]. **Supply - related** - **Production Areas Weather**: During the period from August 26 to September 2, Vietnam was affected by typhoons "Jianyu" and "Lanhu". The estimated rubber production loss due to heavy rainfall was about 0.29 - 0.48 tons, which will be released after the weather improves. Yunnan's rainfall gradually subsided, while Hainan was more significantly affected by typhoon "Lanhu", with expected increased rainfall that would hinder tapping [10][31]. - **Thai Supply**: Thai weather was normal, raw material prices increased marginally, and production was stable. The Thai Rubber Authority (RAOT) launched a plan to export rubber to China via the Mekong River with zero import tax, aiming to increase prices. The first batch of 400 tons of cup - shaped rubber will be shipped in September this year, and commercial shipments are planned to start in October 2025, with production increasing to 2,400 tons [4][21]. - **Ivory Coast Exports**: In July 2025, Ivory Coast exported 2.85 tons of natural rubber to China, a decrease of 0.55 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 16.29% and a year - on - year increase of 92.59%. From January to July 2025, Ivory Coast's total exports of natural rubber to China were 27.84 tons, a decrease of 9.61 tons compared to the same period, with a total year - on - year increase of 52.73% [26]. **Demand - related** - **Tire Industry**: As of August 29, the semi - steel tire开工率 was 72.77%, down 0.36% from last week. In July 2025, the monthly inventory of Chinese semi - steel tire enterprises was 19.2 million pieces, a decrease of 360,000 pieces from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 1.91% and a year - on - year increase of 27.66%. Due to anti - dumping measures in the EU, there was a rush to export, over - drafting subsequent orders, and downstream tire factories were pessimistic, making short - term inventory digestion difficult. As of August 28, the whole - steel tire开工率 was 63.84%, down 0.92% from last week. In July 2025, the export volume of Chinese whole - steel tires was 45.44 tons, a decrease of 4.72 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 11.6% and a year - on - year increase of 13%. Enterprises' exports remained active, domestic sales were stable, and it is expected that the开工率 will improve in September [55][61]. - **Inventory**: As of August 24, the total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 47.3 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.25%; the total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 79.7 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.12%. As of August 29, the combined inventory of bonded and general trade of natural rubber in Qingdao was 60.23 tons, a decrease of 0.4 tons from the previous period, a decrease of 0.6%. The bonded area inventory was 7.32 tons, a decrease of 0.14%; the general trade inventory was 52.91 tons, a decrease of 0.7%. It is expected that the inventory in Qingdao Port will continue to decline slightly in the next period [4][48][94].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PTA: Neutral overall, with a cautiously bullish view on device changes and supply - demand balance [5] - PX: Neutral overall, with a cautiously bullish view on downstream demand [6] - Ethylene Glycol: Neutral overall, with a cautiously bearish view on month - spread and device changes, and a cautiously bullish view on downstream demand [7] 2. Core Views PTA - PTA supply has unexpected maintenance, demand seasonally recovers, the balance improves, and the price recovers. It is greatly affected by sentiment in the short term, and attention should be paid to low - buying opportunities after pullbacks [5] PX - PX inventory pressure is not large, recent supply maintenance plans increase, the expected balance is tight, and the PXN around $270 is slightly high. The current valuation reflects the expectation of fundamental improvement. Pay attention to sentiment changes in the short term and buy on dips [6] Ethylene Glycol - Ethylene glycol has a strong current situation but weak expectations. The near - end low inventory has little pressure to accumulate, the coal - based load is at a high level. It is expected that existing devices will restart and new ones will be put into production in the fourth quarter. There is support from anti - involution and coal. Pay attention to reverse - spread opportunities [7] 3. Summary by Directory Demand Seasonal Improvement - Terminal orders have partial improvement, and the operating rates of texturing, weaving, and dyeing machines have increased by 7%, 5%, and 5% to 79%, 68%, and 72% respectively. Downstream raw material inventory is 10 - 20 days, and orders have slightly improved [9] - As of August 22, the polyester load is around 90% (+0.6%), the polyester cash flow is slightly in the red, and the average polyester inventory is around 17 days. Polyester is approaching the peak season, demand has seasonal improvement, and raw materials are strong due to "anti - involution", slightly compressing polyester profits. Last week's sales were good, and polyester overall reduced inventory, with the current inventory being neutral [13] - Polyester industry chain profits are average. Filament profits are slightly in the red, FDY losses are relatively serious, bottle - chip and slice profits are average, and staple - fiber profits are neutral [14] PTA Unexpected Maintenance Increase - In August, PTA maintenance volume was high, and maintenance plans increased in September. YS Dahua and YS Hainan are under maintenance, Jiaxing Petrochemical extended its maintenance and restarted, and Fuhua will restart in mid - September. Hengli Huizhou's two lines are under maintenance and reducing load, and Dushan Energy No. 2 is under planned maintenance [34] - As of August 22, PTA social inventory remained stable, (excluding credit warehouse receipts) inventory decreased to 220 tons, a decrease of 5 tons. The balance in September may continue to reduce inventory [35] - PTA supply - demand balance: In August - September, with unexpected supply improvement and better demand, the supply - demand fundamentals are good, but the price has reflected the supply improvement. Pay attention to macro - sentiment and buy on dips [40] PXN Strength - US gasoline inventory decreases seasonally, the gasoline cracking spread during the peak season remains stable, and the octane number performance is average. Currently, the economics of blending oil is average, and the short - process profit in Asia is acceptable [47][49] - The US - Asia arbitrage spread remains stable. After considering the 25% US tariff on Japan and South Korea, the spread space is not large, and xylene is exempted. North America's demand for aromatics has significantly decreased in 2025, and South Korea's exports of aromatics to the US have remained low since April [55] - PX domestic load changes little, with the domestic load at 84.6% and the Asian load at 76.3%. Tianjin Petrochemical is under maintenance, CNOOC Huizhou slightly reduced its load. There are rumors of maintenance plans for Zhejiang and Lianyungang suppliers. In Asia, Thailand's THAI OIL restarted, Japan's Idemitsu's one line is under maintenance, and Saudi Arabia's Petro Rabigh device restarted [57] - PX is in a loose balance with PTA maintenance. With the expectation of PX maintenance, the PXN remains around $270. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities after pullbacks [59] Ethylene Glycol Situation - As of August 22, the overall ethylene glycol load is stable at 73%, and the coal - based load is 77%. The coal - chemical load is high, and there are some unexpected situations in some coal - chemical loads. It is expected that the coal - chemical load will slightly decrease in September [69] - Domestic ethylene glycol device changes: The domestic overall load is not low, and there are coal - chemical maintenance plans. Shenghong restarted, Tianying and Wonen restarted, Shanxi Weihua and Shenhua Yulin are under maintenance, and Tianye has a maintenance plan in September. Overseas, Singapore's Aster is under maintenance, and the restart of the cracking device is postponed. US Lotte and Malaysia's Petronas restarted [72][84] - As of August 11, the ethylene glycol port inventory in the main ports of East China is about 50 tons, a decrease of 4.7 tons month - on - month. The current inventory is at a low level. From August 18 - 24, the actual arrival was 6.1 tons, and the port reduced inventory. From August 25 - 31, the expected arrival is about 5.4 tons, and the port is expected to slightly reduce inventory in the short term. Polyester factories' ethylene glycol raw material inventory days are 12 days [96] - Ethylene glycol has a strong current situation but weak expectations. The near - end low inventory has little pressure to accumulate, the coal - based load is at a high level. It is expected that existing devices will restart and new ones will be put into production in the fourth quarter. There is support from anti - involution and coal. Pay attention to reverse - spread opportunities [101]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating for the industry [4] 2. Core Viewpoints - Market rumors of domestic procurement of Australian rapeseed have been confirmed with cumulative deals of 5 cargoes, which can make up for the shortage of rapeseed arrivals in the fourth quarter [4] - With increasing far - month exports of domestic soybean oil, downstream buyers are actively purchasing the basis of soybean oil from October to January, but be wary of reserve soybeans and Sino - US negotiations [6] - As India's peak procurement season is approaching its end, the bullish drivers for palm oil will be more on the supply side. However, even with supply - side drivers, the upside of the futures market may be limited, and there could be downward pressure if inventory accumulation exceeds expectations [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil Market - In the GAPKI June report, palm oil production in Indonesia increased by 15.99% month - on - month. In early July, the market expected a production cut in June. Due to tax cuts in June, exports increased by 35.56% month - on - month. With lower biodiesel subsidy costs and high consumption, the inventory at the end of August dropped to 253 million tons, a historical low. Most expect July production to be flat or slightly lower, and inventory accumulation at the end of July may be limited [4] - MPOA estimates that Malaysia's palm oil production in the first 20 days of August increased by 3.03%, lower than the historical average. However, according to shipping inspection agency data, export growth is slowing down, and inventory may continue to accumulate at the end of August unless consumption continues to exceed expectations [4] - After 8 cargoes of palm oil were traded in China last week, the origin's quotes weakened this week, and the import loss for the domestic futures market narrowed. Cargoes for the November shipment continued to be traded [5] - India's procurement of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil has slowed down due to the narrowing of the soybean - palm oil price spread at Indian ports and news of India's procurement of South American palm oil [5] Price Movements - As of August 22, 2025, French rapeseed had the largest weekly increase, while price adjustments of rapeseed and soybeans in most regions were small [8] - As of August 25, 2025, except for a slight decline in the prices of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil, other vegetable oil prices rose, especially the prices of North and South American soybean oil [13] - The weekly price difference between refined palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia was $10/ton, compared to $0/ton the previous week, lower than the historical average of $11.7/ton. The price difference between Argentine soybean oil and Indonesian crude palm oil was - $28.5/ton, compared to - $36/ton the previous week, lower than the historical average of $127.9/ton [23] - As of August 22, Canada officially raised its rapeseed production forecast, and the price of Canadian rapeseed was weak. Without Chinese purchases, it has to find other markets [24] - As of August 22, the price difference between crude soybean oil and crude palm oil at Indian ports was $30/ton, higher than $15/ton the previous week; the price difference between crude sunflower oil and crude palm oil was $115/ton, compared to $95/ton the previous week; the price difference between refined soybean oil and refined palm oil was $0/ton, compared to - $6/ton the previous week [30] Transaction Volume - Last week, 8 cargoes of palm oil for the October shipment, 2 for the September shipment, 1 for the October shipment, and 5 for the November shipment were traded. One cargo of Dubai rapeseed oil was also traded in China last week [39] - The far - month basis of soybean oil had a large number of transactions again [132] Basis and Spread - The spot basis of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong weakened again, the spot basis of first - grade soybean oil in Jiangsu was raised, and the basis of third - grade rapeseed oil in Guangxi remained stable [136] - On August 25, 2025, the spot price difference between first - grade soybean oil and 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was - $900.0; the spot price difference between third - grade rapeseed oil and first - grade soybean oil in Jiangsu was $1320; and the spot price difference between third - grade rapeseed oil and first - grade soybean oil was $1540 [148] Bio - diesel - Weekly processing profit and loss remained stable, subsidies decreased, and blending losses increased [127] - The price of European RME was stable, and the processing profit was at the historical average level [128] Demand - The far - month basis of soybean oil had a large number of transactions again [132] Monthly Balance Sheet - The monthly balance sheets for palm oil, rapeseed oil, and soybean oil show the changes in inventory, production, import, demand, and other indicators from 2024 to 2025 [155]