1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Methanol: Neutral to Bullish [3] - Thermal Coal: Bearish [3] - Domestic Supply: Bearish [3] - Imports: Bullish [3] - Downstream Demand: Neutral [3] - Upstream Profits: Bullish [3] - MTO Profits: Neutral [3] - Inventory: Bearish [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term methanol price has rebounded significantly. On one hand, the shutdown of Iranian plants may lead to a reduction in imports. On the other hand, geopolitical factors have raised concerns about the return of Iranian plants, and the recent stabilization and rebound of olefin prices have provided momentum for methanol's rebound. In the short term, methanol is expected to be volatile and bullish, with a preference for long positions on pullbacks and positive spreads in calendar spreads [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply 3.1.1 Domestic Supply - As of the week ending January 1st, the national methanol plant operating rate was 77.7%, with coal - based methanol at 85.9%, coke oven gas - based at 60.1%, and natural gas - based at 34.1% [9]. - There are currently several domestic plants under maintenance. In late December, Inner Mongolia Heima and Zhongyuan Dahua were newly added to the list of maintenance plants. Attention should be paid to the restart time of natural gas - based methanol plants in China [12][15]. 3.1.2 Imports - Most Iranian plants are shut down. Since late December, Iranian shipments have decreased, and the volume in January has dropped significantly. It is expected that the reduction in imports will gradually materialize. However, recent US actions against Iran have raised concerns about the return of supply [17][18]. 3.2 Raw Material Prices - Coal prices have stabilized after a decline. Due to the increase in heating demand in the north, the daily consumption of domestic coal has rebounded significantly. In the short term, coal prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [24]. 3.3 Profits 3.3.1 Upstream Profits - The profit of coal - based methanol has rebounded slightly but remains low. The profit of natural gas - based methanol remains in the red, and the profit of coke oven gas - based methanol fluctuates within a narrow range. As of January 5th, the profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia was - 214 yuan/ton, that of natural gas - based methanol in the southwest was - 200 yuan/ton, and that of coke oven gas - based methanol in Hebei was 95 yuan/ton [32]. 3.3.2 MTO Profits - MTO profits have declined slightly recently. The MTO operating rate has fluctuated within a narrow range. There are market rumors that some plants may reduce their loads due to low profits. Attention should be paid to the stability of operations under the background of continuous low profits [42]. 3.4 Downstream Demand 3.4.1 Traditional Downstream - The operating rate of traditional downstream industries has rebounded. The operating rates of acetic acid and MTBE have increased, while the operating rate of formaldehyde has decreased slightly. The profits of traditional downstream plants have remained stable at a low level recently and are relatively better compared to the same period last year. Traditional downstream enterprises' procurement is average as it is currently the off - season for traditional demand [51][56]. 3.4.2 Olefin Demand - Olefin enterprises have increased their procurement due to year - end inventory replenishment. The operation of MTO plants has not changed much, but there are rumors that some MTO plants may carry out maintenance and reduce loads due to low profits [44][56]. 3.5 Inventory - Port inventory: Last week, the port inventory was 140,000 tons, and the port's tradable inventory was 732,000 tons. Recently, due to slow unloading at the port, the inventory has been decreasing, but there are many floating storage positions at sea. It is expected that the unloading volume will increase this week, and the port will start to accumulate inventory again [77]. - Inland inventory: The inland inventory has remained at a low level, but with the recent restart of maintenance plants and the impact of snow and rain on transportation in the north, the inland inventory has started to accumulate [77]. - MTO sample enterprises' inventory: The inventory of MTO sample enterprises is at a high level but is decreasing. After the recent price rebound, the willingness to replenish inventory has declined. The raw material inventory of traditional downstream enterprises has not changed much [82]. 3.6 Price Spreads - Basis: The basis of the main contract in East China has fluctuated within a narrow range recently. The rebound of futures prices has slightly weakened the port basis, but the absolute price has followed the increase. In the short term, as the port inventory continues to decrease, the basis is expected to strengthen gradually [90]. - Calendar Spreads: The 5 - 9 spread has remained relatively strong recently, mainly because the near - end still has the expectation of inventory reduction, making the near - end stronger. The 2 - 5 and 3 - 5 spreads have increased significantly. In the short term, the positive spread trend is expected to continue [90]. 3.7 Balance Sheet - The report provides the balance sheet data of methanol from April 2025 to March 2026, including total production, imports, total supply, exports, consumption, and surplus, etc. [99]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for pure benzene is neutral [5] - The investment rating for styrene is neutral [8] 2. Core Views of the Report Pure Benzene - Last week, pure benzene supply remained stable, with no obvious changes on the supply - side. The main change was in downstream demand. Some styrene downstream plants had unexpected maintenance, reducing pure benzene demand. Caprolactam's profit improved significantly due to production cuts, and the downstream PA6开工率 dropped significantly. It is expected that the caprolactam load will not increase significantly. Currently, the pure benzene port inventory is as high as 300,000 tons, at a historical peak, but the valuation is low. Under the weak reality, the driving force for pure benzene is poor, and the valuation is difficult to recover in the short term. In the future, the fundamentals in the short - term are still not optimistic, and attention should be paid to the possibility of the early restart of pure benzene downstream after significant profit repair [5] Styrene - Last week, there was unexpected maintenance on the styrene supply - side, reducing the overall supply. In terms of demand, the consumption of three S increased, but the overall fluctuation was small. The overall inventory of downstream three S was still at a high level, and the demand is expected to change little in the short term. In terms of inventory, styrene is expected to have seasonal inventory accumulation in the future. In terms of valuation, the BZ - SM spread is low. Last week, the styrene market rose due to unexpected maintenance and export news. With the low valuation of styrene, the influence of marginal positive factors has increased. The main negative factor is the surplus of upstream pure benzene. Attention should be paid to the changes in plants and exports [8] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Pure Benzene Supply - The pure benzene supply is rated as neutral. The operating rate changed little, and the actual supply is relatively large. There are many ongoing plant shutdowns, such as Changyi Petrochemical, Jincheng Petrochemical, etc. The overall supply situation is relatively stable [6][18] Demand - The pure benzene demand is rated as bearish. The overall operating rate of downstream industries is weak. The downstream overall profit has recovered a lot but remains at a low level. The main downstream industries include styrene, caprolactam, etc., and their demand for pure benzene is affected by factors such as plant maintenance and profit [6][20] Month - to - Month Spread - The pure benzene month - to - month spread is rated as bearish. It is expected that the overall inventory will accumulate in the future, and the month - to - month spread is expected to weaken. The port inventory of pure benzene is expected to continue to accumulate, and although it is relatively balanced in January, there may be inventory reduction if there are other maintenance plants [6][53] External Market Support - The external market support for pure benzene is rated as bullish. The US - Asia arbitrage window is only open for large - vessel mixed aromatic hydrocarbons. In North America, demand is under pressure; in Western Europe, holiday demand is low; in Asia, downstream demand remains weak due to low profits [6][52] Styrene Supply - The styrene supply is rated as bullish. The operating rate has rebounded, but the overall supply is not large. Due to the small change in the month - on - month maintenance volume, the maintenance volume in January decreased slightly, and the output in January is expected to increase [8][56] Demand - The styrene demand is rated as neutral. The downstream demand remains stable, neither strong nor weak. The overall operating rate of downstream three S is low, and the downstream inventory is still high. The overall downstream profit has weakened significantly, and the profit distribution is concentrated in styrene [8][61] Month - to - Month Spread - The styrene month - to - month spread is rated as bearish. It is expected to have seasonal inventory accumulation in January, and the month - to - month spread may weaken [8] External Market Support - The external market support for styrene is rated as bullish. The Asia - Europe spread is large, and attention should be paid to possible export changes. In North America, export arbitrage is closed; in Western Europe, downstream demand is low; in Asia, the poor profit of downstream three S weakens the willingness to buy [8][109] Pricing Logic Styrene Basis - The styrene basis has strengthened recently. Due to the decrease in inventory and the tightening of spot liquidity, the basis has strengthened. With the start of seasonal inventory accumulation, the subsequent basis may weaken. The near - month styrene has changed to a Back structure, while the far - month contracts are still in a contango structure. Attention should be paid to the structural changes under the seasonal inventory accumulation in Q1. For pure benzene, the port inventory has increased significantly, and the basis has weakened [99] Styrene Profit - The styrene profit has recovered significantly. Stimulated by unexpected maintenance and export news, styrene prices rose significantly, leading to a significant increase in styrene profit, while the profit of downstream three S is under obvious pressure [102]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - In 2025, the cumulative increase of spot gold was 64%, and spot silver soared 147%, becoming the best - performing commodity category of the year. In January 2026, the core concerns of the precious metal market are the successor of Powell, the December non - farm payroll data to be released on January 9, and the potential sanctions of the US on Chinese mining enterprises in South America. The core macro - logic supporting the gold price in 2026 will continue, and the resilience of the gold price will support the silver price [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Overseas Main Interest Rates - The market has factored in two interest rate cuts in 2026, the first in April and the second in October. After the release of the December FOMC meeting minutes, traders' bets on the two interest rate cuts in 2026 remained unchanged. There were significant differences in the December meeting minutes [8]. - Last week, the yields of US Treasury bonds of various maturities diverged. The 30 - year UST yield rose 5.52bps to 4.87%, the 10 - year UST yield rose 6.3bps to 4.19%, and the 2 - year UST yield fell 0.16bps to 3.47%. The yield curve steepened. The term premium of long - term interest rates is at a relatively high level since 2025 [11]. - The use of ONRRP last week was $5.67 billion, a decrease of $4.88 billion from the previous value. The Fed's reserve balance last Wednesday was $2.853 trillion, a decrease of $128 billion from the previous week [17]. - As of December 23, the positions of long - and short - term US Treasury bond interest rates were bearish. The non - commercial net short positions of 2 - year UST futures increased by 11,570 lots to 1,362,703 lots, and the non - commercial net short positions of 10 - year UST futures increased by 72,262 lots to 742,370 lots. As of the week of December 15, the sentiment of JPM Treasury net long investors was 21, a significant rebound from the previous week [21]. - The yields of 5 - year and 10 - year TIPS diverged. The 5 - year TIPS yield remained flat at 1.46% compared with the previous week, and the 10 - year TIPS yield rose 3bp to 1.94% [28]. Dollar Index and Liquidity - Last week, the dollar index and the gold price moved in opposite directions. The gold price fell 4.4%, and the dollar index rose 0.4% to 98.5, with their rolling correlation increasing. The dollar appreciated 0.2% against the yen, 0.5% against the euro, and 0.3% against the pound [34]. - As of December 23, the total position of the dollar index increased. The non - commercial long positions increased by 793 lots to 16,700 lots, and the non - commercial short positions increased by 219 lots to 21,000 lots, with the long - side force dominant. In terms of position ratio, the non - commercial long position ratio was 59%, unchanged from the previous week, and the short position ratio was 73%, a decrease from the previous week [38]. - Last week, the 3 - month Basis Swap of the yen and the euro increased month - on - month, and the financing cost of offshore dollar liquidity decreased [41]. Inflation High - Frequency Indicators - Last week, the copper - to - gold ratio rose to 2.88, with the copper price rising and the gold price falling, indicating a marginal increase in global aggregate demand momentum [48]. Price Ratios and Volatility - The gold - to - silver ratio fluctuated higher because the decline of the gold price was smaller than that of the silver price last week. The gold - to - copper ratio decreased because the gold price fell and the copper price rose. The gold - to - oil ratio decreased month - on - month because the oil price rose and the gold price fell [57]. - From the perspective of rolling correlation, the correlation between gold and crude oil and copper decreased, while the correlation between gold and the dollar index increased [65]. - During the rapid rise of Shanghai silver last week, the price difference between the domestic and foreign silver markets reached a maximum of about - 400, significantly deviating from the equilibrium level, and then gradually declined [70]. Inventory and Positions - In terms of inventory, last week, the COMEX gold inventory was 36.403 million ounces, a month - on - month increase of 244,000 ounces, and the COMEX silver inventory was 449.774 million ounces, a month - on - month decrease of 1.579 million ounces. The SHFE gold inventory was about 97.7 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.9 tons, and the SHFE silver inventory decreased by 182.9 tons to 669.5 tons [75]. - The SPDR gold ETF position decreased by 6 tons to 1,065 tons, and the current position scale is near the lower median of the past 10 years. The SLV silver ETF position increased by 53.6 tons to 16,444 tons, currently at a medium - to - high level [80]. - The total COMEX gold position increased by 21,010 lots to 492,000 lots. Among them, the non - commercial long positions increased by 9,241 lots to 290,000 lots, and the short positions increased by 2,519 lots to 49,000 lots, indicating an increase in the long - side force of gold allocation. In terms of position ratio, the non - commercial long position ratio decreased to around 59%, and the non - commercial short position ratio remained around 10% [86]. - The total COMEX silver position increased by 2,789 lots to 156,000 lots. Among them, the non - commercial long positions decreased by 791 lots to 55,000 lots, and the short positions decreased by 323 lots to 19,000 lots, indicating an increase in the short - side force of silver allocation. In terms of position ratio, the non - commercial long position ratio decreased to around 35.5%, and the non - commercial short position ratio decreased to around 12.4% [92].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, urea prices continued to oscillate and search for a bottom, with frequent rapid rebounds. Supply remained high, and production increased year - on - year. In 2026, supply is expected to grow further, with a potential 3.5% increase in capacity and a 3.5% increase in production, or 2 - 2.5% if prices fall. Agricultural demand is expected to rise by 2.67%. Domestic industrial demand may remain weak, with a 2% decline in melamine and urea - formaldehyde resin demand. Urea export policies may continue, but the stimulus from exports is weakening. Without unexpected export demand, urea prices will slowly decline until production shows negative feedback [3][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2025 Market Review - In 2025, urea prices oscillated downward. Key factors included continuous domestic capacity expansion (355 million tons in 2025, 317 million tons expected in 2026, and 600 million tons from 2027 - 2028), decent agricultural demand during peak seasons, changes in export policies, and stable industrial demand [12][14]. - Quarterly events included winter gas restrictions and rising international natural gas prices in Q3, which pushed up international nitrogen fertilizer prices. There were also factors such as spring plowing demand, changes in compound fertilizer export policies, and the start of summer demand [10]. Capacity Trends - China's urea is in a capacity expansion cycle. In 2025, net new capacity was 4.18 million tons, and 2.94 million tons are expected in 2026. Future plans involve adding about 14 million tons and removing 3 - 5 million tons in the next three years, resulting in a net increase of 9 - 11 million tons [19][24]. - Some fixed - bed processes using anthracite are being phased out, with about 13.61 million tons of such capacity (18% of the total) likely to be eliminated in the next five years [24]. Production and Profitability - In 2025, gas - based urea production was unprofitable, but production was not significantly affected due to planned gas supply and export quota support. However, long - term low prices may lead to reduced production [28]. - In 2026, urea production is expected to increase by 3.6%. But due to limited room for increasing the production rate and low prices for gas - based production, the increase in production may be less than the increase in capacity. If prices fall, output growth may drop to 2.3% [34][39]. Nitrogen Fertilizer Market - Production of nitrogen - containing fertilizers has grown rapidly in recent years. In 2025, synthetic ammonia production is expected to be 34.5% higher than in 2022. Urea remains cost - effective compared to other nitrogen fertilizers, but the substitution demand has decreased [49][53]. - Ammonium chloride and ammonium sulfate markets are moving towards a more balanced supply, with supply increasing and the substitution demand for urea limited. The substitution of ammonium sulfate for urea exports may weaken [54][60][62]. - Overall nitrogen fertilizer supply has increased significantly. In 2025, the total nitrogen - containing output of nitrogen fertilizers is expected to maintain a growth rate of over 10%. However, international nitrogen fertilizer prices have weakened, and future export momentum may decline [64][66]. Demand Trends - Agricultural demand is expected to continue to grow moderately. From 2020 - 2024, grain sowing area and production increased. Policies aim to increase grain production by 100 billion jin by 2030. In 2026, agricultural and other demand is expected to rise by 2.7%, and compound fertilizer demand may increase by 1.7% [70][82][85]. - Industrial demand is related to the real - estate market and furniture exports. With weak real - estate demand and falling furniture export prices, the demand for melamine and urea - formaldehyde resin is expected to decline by 2% in 2026 [88][97]. Export Situation - Export policies are crucial. Historically, policies have changed frequently. In 2025, export policies were relaxed through quotas, and exports may reach 4.76 million tons, with a possible increase to 5 million tons in 2026. India's import demand may decrease, while non - China and India regions are expected to add 4 million tons of new capacity in 2026. Export profit remains high, and the quota system is expected to continue in 2026 [102][111][113][116]. Balance Sheet - In 2026, domestic new capacity will continue to be put into operation. Without considering production cuts due to losses, urea production is expected to increase by about 2.54 million tons (3.7%). Demand is expected to see a 2.7% increase in agricultural and other sectors, a 1.7% increase in compound fertilizers, a 2% decrease in industrial demand, and stable or increasing exports. Overall, supply may slightly exceed demand, but there is still a possibility of short - term strength due to export policies [120][121].

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating was provided in the report. Core Views PTA - The near - term PTA market is tight. The seasonal inventory accumulation in January - February is lower than in previous years. The recent rebound is significant, and there are marginal demand feedbacks. Consider buying on dips [5][48]. - The supply side has multiple device maintenance plans. The demand side shows that the polyester load remains high in the short - term, but downstream orders are weakening [48]. PX - The overall pattern of PX is expected to be good. It is increasing in volume and price. Short - term supply - demand changes are small, and PXN has strengthened significantly. Pay attention to capital changes [6][74]. - The domestic PX operating rate is 88%, and the Asian load is 78.9%. There are maintenance and restart plans for some devices [6][74]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - The supply of ethylene glycol has marginal improvements, with more overseas maintenance. Polyester has marginal production reduction plans. In December, supply - demand pressure is not large, but seasonal inventory accumulation is expected. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short - term [7][121]. - The supply side has device load adjustments and overseas maintenance. The demand side shows that the polyester load is high, but terminal orders are slightly weakening [121]. Summary by Related Catalogs Terminal and Polyester - Terminal demand is seasonally weakening. The start - up rates of texturing, weaving, and dyeing have slightly decreased to 79% (- 4%), 62% (- 5%), and 70% (-). Polyester production and sales have increased due to downstream restocking [9]. - As of December 19, the polyester load is around 91.1%. The polyester cash - flow is squeezed, and the average inventory is around 13.5 days. The inventory of POY, DTY, FDY, and staple fiber is 13.3, 25.6, 13.4, and 7.2 days respectively. The polyester load is expected to be 91% in December and 88% in January [13][14][36]. PTA - Device changes: YS Ningbo plans to restart this week. New materials have maintenance plans in January - February. Ineos 110 plans to restart this weekend, while Ineos 125 will reduce its load and may have maintenance later. Sichuan Energy Investment's restart is postponed to early January. YS Dahua, Hainan, and Dushan 1 are still under maintenance. The maintenance volume in January - February 2026 is not low [42]. - Inventory: As of December 19, PTA social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) has decreased to 210 tons, a decrease of 4.3 tons. PTA factory inventory and warehouse receipt inventory have slightly decreased [43]. - Balance sheet: The near - term is tight. The maintenance of suppliers in January - February is high, and the seasonal inventory accumulation pressure is not high [48]. PX - Market performance: Recently, PX has been strong. The Asian disproportionation and short - process benefits have improved significantly. The PXN has strengthened to over 350, and the aromatics spread between the US and Asia has slightly narrowed [64][67]. - Device dynamics: The domestic operating rate is 88%, and the Asian load is 78.9%. Tianjin Petrochemical plans maintenance at the beginning of next week, and Fujia plans to restart a line at the end of the month. In Asia, GS disproportionation is shut down, Taiwan FCFC is operating at 70% capacity, Japan ENEOS restarted a small line last weekend, and Japan Idemitsu's 200,000 - ton device plans to restart at the end of the month [69]. - Balance sheet: The supply - demand is in a loose balance. The price has risen in advance, and the PXN has rebounded to around 350. Pay attention to capital changes [74]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Device load: As of December 19, the overall ethylene glycol load is 71.93%, and the coal - based load is 75%. The oil - based process has more maintenance and load - reduction [91]. - Device maintenance: Many domestic and overseas devices have maintenance plans. New devices such as Ningxia Changyi are in the process of increasing production [95][97][110]. - Profit: The profit of ethylene glycol has been compressed. The oil - based process is in a loss, and the loss of the coal - based process has increased [98]. - Import: Overseas device maintenance is high. The arrivals in November - December are not low, but may decrease in January - February [110]. - Inventory: As of December 22, the port inventory in East China is about 71.6 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3 tons. The polyester factory's raw material inventory days have slightly increased [116]. - Balance sheet: The supply has marginal improvements. The balance pressure in December is not large, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [121].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International events have accelerated the trend towards multi - polarization and increased the demand for reserve asset diversification and safe assets, with gold being the key recipient [3] - The long - term support for gold lies in two macro drivers: hedging against sovereign debt and currency credit risks, and serving as an ultimate currency and value storage tool [3] - The core factors driving up gold prices, such as hedging against debt monetization, responding to de - dollarization, and central banks' increased allocation, show no signs of reversal in the short term. Short - term liquidity shortages may cause a 15% - 25% technical correction in gold prices, but the long - term upward trend remains [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Recent Market Review - In 2025, the cumulative increase in gold prices exceeded 60%, outperforming most global risk and fixed - income assets [5] Federal Fiscal Situation - In the 2025 fiscal year, the federal fiscal deficit was $1.8 trillion, a slight reduction of $800 million from 2024. The ratio of federal public debt to GDP is about to exceed 100%, mainly due to the imbalance between fiscal revenue and expenditure [18] - The US debt - reduction experience after World War II is difficult to replicate today as the key conditions, such as significant cuts in fiscal spending, strong post - war economic growth, and a long - term low - interest - rate environment, are absent [18] - The US fiscal expenditure structure is rigid, with mandatory expenditures accounting for over 85% of the total. Reducing social welfare or net interest expenditures is politically difficult and may damage the credit of the US dollar. In the 2025 fiscal year, the net interest expenditure on public debt exceeded $1 trillion for the first time [19][23] - US fiscal deficit expansion is a cross - party and cross - cycle norm. The actual deficit rate is likely to be higher than the CBO's forecast, as different presidents have promoted tax cuts and expenditure expansion policies over the past two decades [27] - In 2026, the average effective tariff rate in the US is expected to be lower than in 2025, which will lead to a decrease in tariff revenue and a greater impact on the fiscal balance [33] - If the Trump administration distributes tariff revenue as dividends, it will increase the deficit by $6 trillion in the next decade. The "Great Beauty Act" will increase the basic deficit by about $3.4 trillion in the next decade, and the additional deficit cannot be covered by tariff revenue [38] - If the IEEPA tariffs are completely abolished, the ratio of US federal public debt to GDP is expected to rise to 127% in the next decade, and may further increase to 138% - 143% if tariff dividends are distributed. This may lead to a sell - off of US Treasuries and an increase in the demand for gold [44] Central Bank Gold Purchases - Despite the nearly 60% increase in gold prices in 2025, official demand remained strong in the first three quarters, with a cumulative purchase of 634 tons. The gold purchase scale in the third quarter ranked among the top three in history [50] - In 2025, the proportion of gold in global central bank reserve assets (foreign exchange + gold) rose to 26%, while the US dollar share decreased from 43% to 39%, indicating a continuous trend of reserve asset diversification [54] - In 2025, global gold ETFs had a net inflow of over 700 tons, reversing the four - year net outflow trend and compensating for the decline in central bank gold purchases [61] Other Gold Demand Factors - The EU plans to use frozen Russian foreign exchange reserves to support Ukraine, which increases the risk of using sovereign currencies as reserve assets and further strengthens the safe - haven property of gold [67] - As of September 30, 2025, Tether's USDT held 104.2 tons of gold reserves, accounting for 7.1% of its total reserve assets. Tether's gold purchase is to enhance the stability of USDT's collateral and diversify its assets [71] Fed's Interest Rate Policy and Gold Prices - The slowdown in the US employment market, such as a decline in non - farm payrolls and an increase in the unemployment rate, provides a basis for the Fed to cut interest rates earlier and more significantly in 2026. Meanwhile, the potential inflation trend remains stable [77] - The expectation of interest rate cuts has led to an inflow of funds into the gold market, driving up the price of gold. Once the labor market shows signs of weakness, the Fed may cut interest rates, opening a new window for capital inflows into the gold market [83] Short - Term Disturbances to Gold Prices - "Liquidity risk" and "liquidity crisis" may be the key variables causing short - term declines in gold prices. However, the Fed's improved crisis - response ability means that the significant decline in the second stage of gold price fluctuations will be reduced [89]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report Supply - Static calculations show that from January to November 2025, China's iron ore imports first decreased and then increased, with a year-on-year increase of 8.76 million tons (1.5%) to 1.14 billion tons, and the annual total may exceed 1.249 billion tons. The new production capacities of mines in Australia and Brazil will be reflected in the fourth-quarter shipments, and imports are expected to continue a slight increase of 1.1% in 2026 [7][125]. - In 2025, China's cumulative iron ore output is expected to reach 295 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.71%. The output rebounded in the fourth quarter as the pressure on safety and environmental protection eased. The output of domestic iron concentrate is expected to increase by 2% year-on-year in 2026 [7][125]. - The pricing benchmark of iron ore will decrease from 62% iron grade to 61%, and the pricing system may be adjusted [7][125]. - In 2026, the total supply will increase by 1.3% year-on-year to 1.544 billion tons [7][125]. Demand - Domestic: In 2025, the decline in the real estate sector slowed down, infrastructure investment showed positive year-on-year growth, and the manufacturing industry continued to improve. The annual iron ore demand was calculated to be 1.498 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 59.97 million tons (+4.23%). The annual iron ore demand in 2026 is expected to remain stable with little change [7][125]. - Overseas: In 2026, the pig iron output in major overseas iron ore - importing countries is expected to decline slightly, while the steel demand in India and the United States will continue to be strong [7][125]. Inventory - As of early December 2025, the inventory at 45 ports was 154 million tons. The production capacity of mines increased slowly in the early stage of 2025 and started to expand in the fourth quarter. However, the demand showed strong resilience, and hot metal production was "not weak in the off - season". With the continued release of iron ore production capacity in 2026, static calculations suggest that the iron ore supply - demand situation will become looser, and there is a high possibility of continued inventory accumulation in 2026. However, short - term supply - demand tightness caused by meteorological and other factors may still occur [7][125]. 3. Summary According to the Relevant Catalogs Market Review - In January, affected by cyclones in Australia and rainfall in Brazil, shipments decreased sharply, and hot metal production stopped falling and rebounded earlier than expected. In early March, after the cyclone in Australia, shipments quickly recovered, but the upward momentum of hot metal was insufficient. With the seasonal recovery of shipments from Australia and Brazil, the resumption of domestic mines increasing supply, and the arrival of the downstream off - season, hot metal production reached its peak and gradually declined. Repeated adjustments of tariff policies caused disturbances that gradually weakened. The pre - festival restocking expectations of steel supported the rebound of iron ore prices. Hot metal production declined significantly, steel product profits continued to weaken, and port inventories increased. After a brief recovery, hot metal production stabilized, and the downstream winter restocking demand was released. After the quarterly shipment rush, the supply from international mines decreased rapidly, the output of domestic mines decreased significantly due to environmental protection, hot metal production continued to rise, and the output of the downstream five major steel products continued to increase. The shipments of international mines recovered, the output of domestic mines increased, but demand showed signs of decline, the off - season arrived, and hot metal production declined. Under the influence of major events, environmental protection restrictions were strict, downstream profits declined, demand weakened, and iron ore prices fluctuated. Vale's terminal maintenance unexpectedly affected shipments, and the US interest rate hikes boosted the macro - optimistic sentiment [5]. Supply - **Global Shipment Volume**: In 2025, the global mainstream iron ore shipment volume first decreased and then increased, with a slight year - on - year increase. As of December 12, 2025, the global average daily shipment volume was 4.47 million tons per day, a 2.76% increase compared to 4.35 million tons per day in the previous year. From January to September 2025, the global iron ore trade volume decreased by 2.38%, and China's iron ore imports from the world increased by 0.01% year - on - year. In the fourth quarter, the new iron ore production capacity was released, and from January to October 2025, China's imports of iron ore from the world increased by 0.75% year - on - year [12]. - **China's Imports from Australia and Brazil**: From January to October 2025, China's imports of iron ore from Australia and Brazil increased by 1.54%, showing a pattern of first decline and then increase, especially a significant improvement since September. China's imports of iron ore from non - Australia and Brazil regions decreased by 2.66%, also showing a pattern of first decline and then increase, especially since September [16]. - **Australia**: From January to September 2025, Australia's iron ore exports showed a pattern of low at first and then high, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.01%. From January to October 2025, China's imports of iron ore from Australia increased by 1.55% year - on - year. According to the capacity expansion plan, the main production capacity increments in Australia in 2025 come from the Xipo (officially put into production on June 6, 2025) and Onslow projects. If the weather remains normal, the iron ore shipments in the fourth quarter may maintain a certain increment [21]. - **Brazil**: From January to September 2025, Brazil's iron ore exports showed a pattern of low at first and then high, with a year - on - year increase of 4.48%. From January to October 2025, China's imports of iron ore from Brazil increased by 1.15% year - on - year. According to the capacity expansion plan, the main production capacity increment in Brazil in 2025 comes from Vale's S11D mining area expansion project (20 million tons). According to the capacity release plan, Brazil's iron ore exports may continue to grow in 2026 [26]. - **Major Mining Companies' Production and Shipment Targets**: - Rio Tinto: In fiscal year 2026, the shipment target will be increased by 20 - 28 million tons. From January to September 2025, the equity ore output was 210.1 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.68%. The SP10 shipments remained at a high level throughout the year, squeezing part of the PB share. The Xipo mining area was fully put into production on June 6, 2025, to maintain the production of PB powder, which is the main source of production increment for Rio Tinto in 2025 [27][32]. - BHP: In fiscal year 2026, the shipment target range will be increased by 2 million tons. From January to September 2025, BHP's output was 196 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.63%. In fiscal year 2025 (July 2024 - June 2025), BHP's 100% equity output was 29 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.01%, reaching a record high. The South Slope mine was the main source of increment, with its capacity fully reaching 80 million tons per year in fiscal year 2025, and together with the C mining area, it forms the world's largest iron ore hub (total capacity of 145 million tons per year). Its high - grade ore (average iron grade of 62%) enhances BHP's product portfolio premium ability [33][38]. - FMG: In fiscal year 2026, the shipment target range will be increased by 5 million tons. From January to September 2025, FMG's output was 179.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.57%. In 2025, the shipments of Super Special Powder were at a high level, while the shipments of Mixed Powder were relatively weak. FMG has announced that the iron ore shipment target for fiscal year 2026 is set at 195 - 205 million tons, with both the upper and lower limits of the range increased by 5 million tons compared to the previous fiscal year. Among them, the shipment target for the Iron Bridge project is 10 - 12 million tons [40][44]. - Vale: In 2026, the target output will be increased by 10 million tons. From January to September 2025, Vale's iron ore output was 246 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.49%. The S11D production area is part of the Serra Sul mining complex in Vale's northern system. Vale proposed the Serra Sul 120Mtpy capacity growth project in August 2020, aiming to increase the annual production capacity of S11D by 20 million tons to 120 million tons, which is expected to be completed in the second half of 2026. The Serra Norte comprehensive mining area also belongs to the northern system, with an annual production capacity of 140 million tons. Vale is investing in the N3 mine maintenance project in this area, with a planned total investment of 84 million US dollars, and it is expected to be put into production in the first half of 2026. The Capanema Maximization project is a capacity growth plan proposed by Vale for its southeastern system, aiming to increase the combined output of the Fábrica Nova and Capanema mines, providing greater operational flexibility for the Mariana mining complex, with a planned investment of about 910 million US dollars. The Vargem Grande (VGR) complex is located in the southern system. Vale is carrying out the VGR 1 project in this area to maintain the operation of existing projects and promote the recovery of the mining area's production capacity. The VGR 1 project consists of three simultaneous sub - projects, with a total investment of 67 million US dollars. The increments from the S11D, Serra Norte, Vargem Grande, and Capanema mining areas may bring about 60 million tons of iron ore output increment for Vale in the next three years. It is expected that Vale's iron ore output will recover to the range of 340 - 360 million tons in 2026 [45][48]. - **Global Iron Ore Production Capacity Increment**: In 2026, the global iron ore production capacity is expected to increase by nearly 47 million tons, with the commissioning progress of Simandou attracting the most attention. There are expectations of increments in Australia, Brazil, and non - mainstream regions in 2026 [50]. - **China's Domestic Supply**: In 2025, the iron concentrate output of 332 domestic mining enterprises is expected to reach 294.82 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.71%, mainly affected by environmental protection and safety inspections. In 2026, with the commissioning of new domestic production capacities and policy support, the output of finished ore (iron concentrate) is expected to increase slightly, with the increment mainly coming from the development of strategic resources in western regions such as Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang. From January to October 2025, China's total iron ore supply was about 1.276 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.95 million tons (+0.39%). In 2026, with the successive commissioning of new production capacities in Simandou and Brazilian iron ore projects, the total supply may increase by 1.3% [74]. Demand - **Overseas Demand**: In 2025, the overseas pig iron output generally declined, with India continuing to maintain rapid growth. From January to October 2025, the overseas pig iron output was 335 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.97%. Among the major overseas regions, India's pig iron output continued to maintain a high growth rate of +6.38%, while the pig iron output of other major steel - producing countries mainly declined. Among net - importing countries, the EU's pig iron output was 60.42 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.327 million tons (-5.5%); the pig iron outputs of Japan and South Korea were 48.799 million tons and 36.168 million tons respectively, with year - on - year declines of -4.01% and -1.88% respectively. Japan's pig iron output has shown a continuous downward trend in recent years. Under the interest - rate hike cycle, its domestic economy is weak, orders from the automobile and machinery industries have decreased, and steel demand has decreased by 10%. Due to inflation pressure, Japan may raise interest rates again at the end of 2025, which will have a negative impact on steel demand. South Korea's construction industry is in a slump, and the exports of traditional manufacturing industries such as automobiles and shipbuilding are blocked. The steel industry demand in 2026 may continue to be weak. Europe's pig iron output continues to decline. High - interest - rate policies have restricted investment and consumption, and the demand for construction, durable consumer goods such as automobiles and home appliances is weak. The euro - zone economy has maintained a low - growth state for a long time, suppressing steel demand [80][81][87]. - **Domestic Demand**: In 2025, the pig iron output is expected to be high at first and then stable, with a year - on - year increase of more than 4.2%. From January to October 2025, the estimated pig iron output was 768 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.4%. Since June, hot metal production reached its peak and slowly declined, and steel mill profits gradually decreased. However, since the downstream inventory has always been maintained at a low level, the inventory - accumulation effect has not yet appeared. The estimated pig iron output in 2025 is 923 million tons, with an expected year - on - year increase of 4.2%. In 2026, it is expected that the real estate demand will still be sluggish, the growth rate of infrastructure investment will slow down, and the manufacturing industry will have a fair growth rate [94][99][100]. Inventory - **Overall Inventory Trend**: In 2025, iron ore shipments first decreased and then increased, while demand first increased and then decreased. In 2026, inventory may continue to increase. From January to August 2025, under the situation of a decline in overseas shipments and higher - than - expected demand, the iron ore port inventory maintained a de - stocking trend. Since September, especially after October, imports increased rapidly while downstream demand weakened, and the inventory increased rapidly. As of the latest data in early December 2025, the iron ore inventory across the entire industrial chain increased by about 11.85 million tons compared to the end of 2024 to 292 million tons. Looking forward to 2026, with the release of new production capacity and the difficulty of demand growth, the iron ore inventory may continue to accumulate [111]. - **Inventory Variety Differentiation**: The inventory of different varieties shows obvious differentiation. The inventory of Australian ore has recently declined from a high level. Against the background of the slow decline of the total inventory in 15 major ports, the inventory of different varieties shows obvious differentiation. The inventory of Brazilian ore is relatively stable, and the inventory of Australian ore has recently started to rise. The inventory of low - grade ore declined significantly from September to October and has slightly rebounded recently. The overall level of medium - grade ore has increased, and the inventory of PB powder has declined significantly from the high level in September [112][114]. Cost and Price - The current global cash cost of 90% of iron ore is at the level of about $90 per ton. Without obvious incremental expectations for pig iron demand in major overseas countries and China, the iron ore supply - demand balance may be achieved through price cuts and reduced shipments, and the cost support around $85 is relatively strong [117][118].

减产总是一步三回头 铁铁铁铁铁 2025/12/19 作者：李文涛 从业资格证号：F3050524 交易咨询证号：Z0015640 联系方式：18616861246 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 研究助理：尹艺瑾 联系方式：13752670838 审核：李文涛 交易咨询证号：Z0015640 从业资格证号：F03125275 观点小结 | 锰硅 | 定性 | 解析 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 本周盘面震荡上行。硅锰周度产量小幅回落，需求继续回落。硅锰市场低迷情绪稍有缓解，北方现货主流报价 在5550-5600元/吨，南方主流报价在5650-5700元/吨。工厂现货成交方面，集中在5550-5600元/吨区间。期现 | | 核心观点 | 偏强 | 基差提货低价减少，北方产区01、05合约下浮220-390不等。成本端，锰矿价格缓慢推高，海外矿山报价小幅 | | | | 上行，双焦盘面大幅反弹，焦炭第三轮提降开始，市场关注后续焦炭价格博弈，合金利润情况较差。 | | 月差 | 中性 | 截至12月19日，锰硅1-5月差-66元/吨，持续低位震荡。 | | 现货 | 中性 | 硅 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PTA: Core view - Neutral; Spot - Cautiously bullish; Cost - Neutral; Device change - Neutral; Downstream demand - Neutral; Supply - demand balance - Cautiously bullish; Processing profit - Neutral [5] - PX: Core view - Neutral; Spot - Neutral; Device change - Cautiously bearish; Import - Neutral; Downstream demand - Neutral; Supply - demand balance - Neutral; Processing profit - Cautiously bearish [6] - Ethylene glycol: Core view - Neutral; Spot - Cautiously bearish; Device change - Cautiously bullish; Import - Neutral; Downstream demand - Neutral; Supply - demand balance - Neutral; Processing profit - Cautiously bullish [7] 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: December shows balanced de - stocking. Considering some long - stopped devices won't restart, the inventory build - up pressure in January and February is not high. Demand seasonally weakens slightly, and costs have corrected significantly. With an expected good pattern, focus on low - buying opportunities after crude oil stabilizes [5]. - PX: The overall pattern is expected to be good. Short - term supply and demand change little, and PXN maintains a relatively high valuation. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities [6]. - Ethylene glycol: The supply side has marginal improvements with increased oil and coal device maintenance. December's balance improves, with limited short - term downside space. However, it still faces inventory build - up pressure and will fluctuate at low levels in the short term [7]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Terminal Demand - Weaving orders are weakening. Domestic terminal orders are winding down, and foreign demand samples haven't been ordered in bulk. The operating rates of texturing, weaving, and dyeing have slightly decreased to 83% (- 2%), 67% (- 2%), and 70% (- 4%) respectively. Finished product inventories are rising slightly, and new order volume is weakening. There may be a pre - holiday stock - up wave before the Spring Festival in 2026, around mid - January [9] - As of December 12, polyester load is around 91.2%, with low cash flow. Polyester average inventory is about 16 days, with low inventory pressure and a slight increase. Polyester开工率 remains high, and the overall cash flow is average. Polyester as a whole has average profitability, with compressed profits for filament POY and FDY, and fair profitability for staple fiber [14][15] - As of December 11, polyester load is 91.2%. Forecasts for November and December are 91% and 91% (+1%). In the future, with low inventory pressure and a relatively late Spring Festival in 2026, the loads of filament and staple fiber are expected to remain high [41] PTA - PTA device maintenance changes little. Devices are under planned maintenance with a high volume. YS Ningbo, Dahua, and Hainan are under maintenance, as well as Ineos, Sichuan Energy Investment, and Dushan No.1. The planned maintenance in January 2026 is not high. After Ineos' 1.1 million - ton restart, 1.25 million tons may be under maintenance. Watch for new material plans [47] - As of December 11, PTA social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) is 2.15 million tons, showing a slight decline. Before the end of the year, PTA inventory pressure is low [48] - PTA's short - term supply is tight, with little change in supply and demand. The overall pattern is expected to be good. Consider low - buying on corrections. The supply side has devices under planned maintenance with little change and high maintenance volume. The demand side has polyester load maintaining at a high of 91.2% as of December 12, but downstream orders are weakening [59] - The net short - position of foreign - controlled futures company seats in PTA changes little [60] PX - US gasoline inventories are rising from the bottom, and gasoline cracking spreads are falling from highs [71] - Asian short - process profitability has slightly improved [73] - The aromatics price spread between the US and Asia has slightly narrowed. The toluene price spread is 189 yuan, and the xylene price spread is $155.9. Xylene tariffs have been waived. Exports of aromatics from South Korea to the US increased slightly in October - November, and there are plans to export pure benzene to North America in December. North American aromatics inventory is expected to increase slightly at the end of the year [81] - PX device operation: Domestic load remains stable at 88.1%, and Asian load is 79.3%. Shanghai Petrochemical has slightly reduced its load, and Zhejiang Petrochemical plans to reduce its load in January. Overseas, GS disproportionation is shut down, Idemitsu's one line has restarted, and Saudi Satorp has restarted [83] - The overall PX pattern is expected to be good, with little short - term change in supply and demand. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities. The PX supply - demand is in a loose balance, with a relatively high PXN valuation around $280. It will fluctuate in the short term, and low - buying is recommended [88] - The price spread between PX's outer and inner markets has stabilized, the 3 - 5 month spread of PX has remained firm, and the TA05 processing fee is at the bottom [89] - The industrial chain profit has slightly recovered from a low level, with the valuation mainly concentrated in PXN, which has recently risen to a high level. PTA processing fees remain low. Currently, the PTA - crude oil price spread has recovered, reflecting some positive expectations. PXN is relatively high overall. Look for opportunities to expand PTA processing fees after the demand off - season correction [98] Ethylene Glycol - As of December 12, the overall ethylene glycol load is 69.93%, and the coal - based load is 72%. Oil - based process maintenance/load reduction has increased [100] - Many ethylene glycol devices have maintenance plans. Domestic maintenance has slightly increased, and the overall load has decreased to 69.9%. The syngas - based load is 72.17%. New device Ningxia Changyi's 200,000 - ton production is ramping up [105][107] - Overseas device maintenance has increased. Shipments to China in November - December are high, estimated at 650,000 tons each month. Shipments may decline in January - February [123] - As of December 17, the ethylene glycol inventory in East China's main ports is about 844,000 tons, a 25,000 - ton increase from last week. Forecasts for arrivals in late December are moderately high, and port inventories are expected to rise slightly. Polyester factories' ethylene glycol raw material inventory days are 13.9 days (+0.1), and downstream inventory has slightly increased [130] - Ethylene glycol's supply side has marginal improvements, with increased oil and coal device maintenance. December's balance has improved, with limited short - term downside space. However, it still faces inventory build - up pressure and will fluctuate at low levels in the short term [135]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel price is in a volatile state. Recently, affected by the strengthened expectation of fundamental surplus, the Shanghai nickel futures market has dropped rapidly, hitting a new low of 111,700 yuan/ton this year. The spot price has also faced increased pressure to decline. Short - term production cuts of refined nickel have not changed the surplus situation, and with the decline in nickel sulfate price and insufficient motivation for nickel plate enterprises to switch production, the production of pure nickel in December is expected to increase month - on - month. In the long - term, the contradiction of "strong supply and weak demand" will gradually accumulate, and the center of nickel price will further decline. [3][4] 3. Summary According to Different Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Market Overview - The price of nickel has shown a volatile downward trend, while the stainless steel market has seen marginal improvement in fundamentals but still faces challenges such as high inventory. [3][4][82] Industry News - Russia's Nornickel has doubled its forecast for nickel supply surplus this year and more than doubled the forecast for 2026, expecting a surplus of 240,000 tons this year and 275,000 tons in 2026. [7] - Greenmei stated that its Indonesian Qingmeibang nickel resource project is in normal production, and the production plan for December is normal, unaffected by local social unrest. [7] - Indonesia's ESDM has simplified the regulatory rules for RKAB, reducing the number of projects from 30 to 10 to speed up project planning, exploration, and approval processes. [7] - In November, some nickel wet - process projects in Indonesian industrial parks may be affected by safety inspections, with an estimated impact on production of about 6,000 nickel metal tons. [7] - In September 2025, the global refined nickel production was 325,500 tons, consumption was 308,400 tons, with a supply surplus of 17,100 tons. From January to September 2025, the global refined nickel production was 2,876,900 tons, consumption was 2,602,400 tons, with a supply surplus of 274,500 tons. [7] Market Price - The Shanghai nickel main contract 2601 opened at 117,900 yuan/ton and closed at 115,590 yuan/ton last week, down 1.87% week - on - week. [9] - As of December 12, the spot price of electrolytic nickel decreased by 1,850 yuan/ton to 118,200 yuan/ton week - on - week, a decrease of 1.54%. The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 1,750 yuan/ton to 120,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.43%, and its premium increased by 300 yuan/ton to 5,200 yuan/ton. The price of imported nickel decreased by 2,050 yuan/ton to 116,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.74%, and its premium remained unchanged at 400 yuan/ton. [15] - As of December 12, the LME nickel price decreased by 350 US dollars/ton to 14,620 US dollars/ton week - on - week, a decrease of 2.34%. The LME nickel 0 - 3 spot premium increased by 4.53 US dollars/ton to - 186.45 US dollars/ton. The import profit and loss of electrolytic nickel increased by 70.57 yuan/ton to - 926.73 yuan/ton, and the export profit and loss decreased by 52.06 US dollars/ton to - 673.37 US dollars/ton. [20] - As of December 12, the average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased by 7.5 yuan/nickel point to 889 yuan/nickel point week - on - week, an increase of 0.85%. The premium of high - nickel pig iron over electrolytic nickel increased by 28 yuan/nickel point to - 271 yuan/nickel point. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate decreased by 40 yuan/ton to 27,490 yuan/ton, and the average price of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate remained unchanged at 31,250 yuan/ton. The premium of battery - grade nickel sulfate over primary nickel plate increased by 1,868.19 yuan/ton to 8,954.55 yuan/ton. [28] Supply - **Nickel Ore**: As of December 12, the CIF prices of Philippine laterite nickel ore with grades of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% remained unchanged at 29, 57, and 78.5 US dollars/wet ton respectively week - on - week. The domestic arrival prices of Indonesian Ni1.2% and Ni1.6% nickel ore remained unchanged at 22.5 and 51.9 US dollars/wet ton respectively. The port inventory of nickel ore decreased by 120,000 wet tons to 9.29 million wet tons, a decrease of 1.28%. In October 2025, the national nickel ore import volume was 4.6828 million tons, a decrease of 23.41% month - on - month and an increase of 10.97% year - on - year. [33][36] - **Intermediate Products**: As of December 12, the MHP FOB price decreased by 72 US dollars/ton to 13,001 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.55%, and the high - grade nickel matte FOB price decreased by 73 US dollars/ton to 13,259 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.55%. In November 2025, the Indonesian MHP production decreased by 24,000 tons to 386,000 nickel tons, a decrease of 5.85%, and the high - grade nickel matte production increased by 70,000 tons to 292,000 tons, an increase of 31.53%. In October 2025, the MHP monthly import volume was 151,300 metal tons, a decrease of 20.62% month - on - month and an increase of 26.52% year - on - year; the high - grade nickel matte monthly import volume was 28,300 metal tons, a decrease of 50.06% month - on - month and a decrease of 13.33% year - on - year. [42] - **Refined Nickel**: In November 2025, China's electrolytic nickel monthly production decreased by 10,100 tons to 25,800 tons, a decrease of 28.13% month - on - month and 16.28% year - on - year. In October 2025, China's refined nickel monthly export volume was 13,700 tons, a decrease of 3.15% month - on - month and 0.76% year - on - year; the monthly import volume was 9,700 tons, a decrease of 65.66% month - on - month and 5.67% year - on - year. From January to October 2025, China's refined nickel cumulative export volume was 150,100 tons, a cumulative increase of 55.2%; the cumulative import volume was 197,400 tons, a cumulative increase of 168.23%. As of December 12, the SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased by 486 tons to 35,300 tons, an increase of 1.40%, and the LME nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 84 tons to 253,000 tons, a decrease of 0.03%. The pure nickel social inventory (including the SHFE) increased by 2,122 tons to 59,000 tons, an increase of 3.73%. [50][51] - **Nickel Sulfate**: In November 2025, China's nickel sulfate monthly production increased by 438 tons to 36,700 nickel tons, an increase of 1.21%. In October 2025, China's nickel sulfate monthly import volume was 22,100 tons, a decrease of 25.32% month - on - month and an increase of 114.15% year - on - year; the monthly export volume was 1,058.24 tons, an increase of 31.23% month - on - month and a decrease of 53.20% year - on - year. [64] - **Nickel Iron**: In November 2025, the national nickel pig iron production (metal content) decreased by 900 tons to 27,200 tons, a decrease of 3.23%. The Indonesian nickel pig iron production decreased by 300 tons to 148,800 nickel tons. As of October 2025, China's nickel iron monthly import volume was 905,100 tons (equivalent to 111,300 tons of metal content), a decrease of 18.40% month - on - month and an increase of 30.31% year - on - year. [75] - **Stainless Steel**: In November 2025, China's stainless steel crude steel production decreased by 20,700 tons to 3.4931 million tons, a decrease of 0.59% month - on - month and an increase of 5.26% year - on - year. The estimated crude steel production in December is 3.2258 million tons, a decrease of 7.65% month - on - month and 6.29% year - on - year. In October 2025, China's stainless steel monthly import volume was 124,100 tons, an increase of 3.18% month - on - month and a decrease of 21.56% year - on - year; the monthly export volume was 358,100 tons, a decrease of 14.43% month - on - month and 14.2% year - on - year. [87] Demand - The demand for nickel in traditional fields is weak, unable to boost the price. The demand for nickel sulfate has slowed down after the peak season, and the procurement volume of ternary enterprises for nickel salts has declined. The demand for stainless steel is affected by factors such as high inventory and tight corporate funds at the end of the year, which restricts the upward movement of the market. [3][4] Cost - In November 2025, the SMM average production cost of electrolytic nickel decreased by 170 US dollars/ton to 13,208 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.27%. The production costs of integrated MHP and high - grade nickel matte for producing electrowon nickel increased by 216 yuan/ton and decreased by 4,667 yuan/ton respectively to 111,026 yuan/ton and 124,817 yuan/ton; the profit margins decreased by 0.5 and increased by 3.3 percentage points respectively to 9.0% and - 3.0%. [57] - In the cost of nickel sulfate production, as of December 12, the profit margins of MHP, nickel beans, high - grade nickel matte, and yellow slag for producing nickel sulfate increased by 1.7, 1.5, 1.8, and 1.1 percentage points respectively to 0.9%, - 0.5%, 6.1%, and - 3.1%. [68] - In the cost of nickel pig iron production, as of December 12, the cash cost of RKEF production in Fujian decreased by 14.03 yuan/nickel point to 951.13 yuan/nickel point, and the production profit margin increased by 2.15 percentage points to - 6.44%. [81] - In the cost of stainless steel production, the cost of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel increased by 22 yuan/ton to 12,490 yuan/ton week - on - week, an increase of 0.18%. [94] Inventory - The pure nickel social inventory (including the SHFE) increased to 59,000 tons as of December 12. The stainless steel social inventory decreased by 16,700 tons to 1.0636 million tons, a decrease of 1.55%, and the stainless steel warehouse receipts decreased by 1,816 tons to 59,800 tons, a decrease of 2.95%. [51][90]