Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the alumina industry is neutral [3]. Core Viewpoints - Guinea's rainy season supports ore prices and alumina costs, but the oversupply in the fundamentals suppresses prices. Without a new round of strong policy stimulus, it is difficult for prices to break upward. Short - term sentiment - driven funds may support the futures price. In the short term, alumina is expected to maintain a range - bound pattern, with the core range of near - month contracts at 3050 - 3300 yuan/ton [3][4]. Summary by Directory Spot - National spot prices are supported by futures and have stabilized. As of Monday this week, the average price of three networks in Shanxi was 3257 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/ton; in Henan, it was 3238 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2 yuan/ton; the average price of three networks in Guizhou increased by 5 yuan/ton to 3323 yuan/ton, and prices in other regions remained unchanged week - on - week [14]. - As of last Friday, the FOB alumina price in Western Australia was 377 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3 US dollars/ton. After considering the small exchange - rate fluctuations, the cost of importing Western Australian alumina to northern ports in China was equivalent to 3356 yuan/ton [14]. - As of last Friday, the import profit and loss of alumina was - 103.05 yuan/ton. The Nanshan Bintan project in Indonesia started production in July, increasing overseas supply pressure. Alumina is expected to remain in a net - export state, but the volume has shrunk significantly [3][14]. Futures - Last week, the futures price of the main alumina contract first rose and then fell. The main alumina contract opened at 3162 yuan/ton last Monday and closed at 3170 yuan/ton last Friday, with a weekly change of - 1.92% and a volatility of 0.75%. The highest point during the week was 3253 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 3130 yuan/ton [18]. - The futures market is shifting from structure C to structure B, and the far - month contract has formed a C - type structure [18]. Cost - In terms of costs, they are basically the same as last week, with the fully - taxed costs in various regions currently running at around 2700 - 3000 yuan/ton [25]. - As of last Friday, the average CIF price of imported Guinea ore was 73.5 US dollars/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the average CIF price of imported Australian ore was 69.5 US dollars/ton, also unchanged week - on - week. The rainy season in Guinea supports the CAPE - type shipping fee at around 23 US dollars/ton, making it difficult for ore prices to fall in the short term [25]. - In the caustic soda market, the supply of caustic soda has increased, but the price of 50% caustic soda has rebounded, driving the 32% caustic soda price to stabilize temporarily. The caustic soda price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [25]. Supply - As of last Friday, the weekly alumina output was 1.851 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.4 million tons or 0.22%. The operating capacity of alumina was 95.35 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.6 million tons or 0.63%. The operating capacity of alumina has reached a record high, exceeding 95 million tons for the first time. Coupled with a sharp decrease in net exports, the weekly surplus has been rising [3][32]. - There is a new production - capacity project in Guangtou Beihai in Q3, and the operating capacity of alumina still has room to reach a new historical peak [32]. Inventory - Alumina has been accumulating inventory since the end of May and has fallen within the historical range for two consecutive weeks. As of last Friday, the total alumina inventory (the sum of on - site, in - transit, raw - material, and port inventories) according to the Steel Union's statistics was 4.144 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.062 million tons, with the inventory - accumulation rate being the highest in the past month [3][37]. - Special attention should be paid to the on - site inventory of alumina plants. It was previously predicted that the tightness of the spot market was easing, and there was an upward trend in the on - site inventory of alumina plants. Although the current on - site inventory is still at a historical low, the loosening of spot prices indicates that the tightness of the spot market is still easing [37]. - According to both the Steel Union and ALD data, the raw - material inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants has been decreasing continuously, indicating that the tightness of downstream demand has eased [37]. - However, in the current market, the bearish fundamental data should be viewed dialectically. Neither the increasing inventory - accumulation rate nor the continuously record - high operating capacity can be the sole basis for judging the market. In the short term, capital movements are the main factor [37].

作者：王琪瑶 从业资格证号：F03113363 交易咨询证号：Z0018762 研究联系方式：wangqiyao@zjtfqh.com 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 审核：肖兰兰 交易咨询证号：Z0013951 | 核心观点 | 短期偏空 | 7月上半月巴西中南部糖产量超预期，对原糖形成压制。国内配额外利润打开，7-8月进口糖加速到港，推动反 套到位，关注内外正套策略。中期处于寻底过程。 | | --- | --- | --- | | 国外生产 | 偏空 | 25/26榨季巴西基本定产4100万吨；印度24/25产量不及预期但25/26存增产预期达3500万吨；泰国维持小幅增产 。 | | 国内产销 | 偏多 | 截至6月底，全国累计产糖1116万吨，同比增120万吨；累计销糖890万吨。 | | 进口利润 | 偏空 | 配额外利润打开，5月后进口放量，8月预期达到顶峰，9月回落。 | | 整体库存 | | 中性偏多6月全国工业库存226万吨，同期低位。 | | 醇油 | | 中性偏多醇油比小幅抬升至0.6768，乙醇存在微弱优势，接近平衡。 | | 原白价差 | 中性 | 原白价差在113美元/吨， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Supply has weakened again and demand has declined slightly, but downstream profits remain good. Before the downward trend in demand is established, iron ore may continue to maintain a relatively strong and volatile trend [5]. - The monthly spread may remain volatile in the short term [6]. - The premium of Jinbabu powder has increased slightly; the premiums of mainstream medium and low-grade ores are stable; the price difference between domestic and foreign ores has increased [8]. Summary by Directory Supply - Reuters: On August 4, 2025, the 7-day moving average shipping volume of global iron ore (excluding mainland China) was 3,881 thousand tons, a week-on-week decrease of 11.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 8.5%. The 7-day moving average shipping volume of Australia was 2,243 thousand tons, a week-on-week decrease of 8% and a year-on-year decrease of 9.4%. The 7-day moving average shipping volume of Brazil was 943.1 thousand tons, a week-on-week decrease of 24.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.96% [31]. - Steel Union: Global shipments decreased slightly last week, and the arrivals at 45 ports increased by 266.5 thousand tons [58][97]. - Domestic ore: The total output of domestic ore continued to increase [103]. Demand - Steel mills: The profitability rate of steel mills continued to increase, and the molten iron output was 2.4071 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 15,200 tons [107]. - Port clearance: The average daily port clearance volume at 45 ports last week was 302,710 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 12,440 tons [118]. - Transactions: The spot trading volume of iron ore declined from a high level, and the trading volume of forward contracts increased significantly [123]. - Consumption: The weekly output of the five major steel products was stable, the profits of finished products weakened, the demand for rebar decreased slightly, and the consumption of hot-rolled coils increased [128]. Inventory - Ports: The inventory at 45 ports decreased by 1.4 million tons, and the proportion of traded ore was 65.35%, a slight decrease compared to the previous period [144]. - Steel mills: The total inventory of imported ore in steel mills increased by 1.269 million tons, the inventory in factories decreased by 460,000 tons, and the inventory in sea - floating and ports increased by 1.73 million tons. The available days of imported ore remained at 21 days [153]. Price - Spot: The spot trading volume of iron ore decreased, and the trading volume of forward contracts continued to increase. The basis rate of the 09 contract was about 0.6%, with a small change in the basis, close to parity, and a relatively low basis rate [9]. - Futures: The prices of futures and spot increased slightly, the basis was weak, and the 9 - 1 monthly spread was volatile and strong [158]. - Premium: The premiums of mainstream medium and low - grade ores were stable, and the price difference between domestic and foreign ores increased [166]. - Sea - floating cost: The cost of mainstream powders decreased [172]. - Import profit: The import profits of mainstream varieties were volatile and strong [175]. - August MA index average: The average value of the MA index in July was 100, corresponding to a disk valuation of about 791 [7]. Balance Sheet - According to the recent iron ore shipment and arrival situation, the supply forecast of iron ore has been slightly lowered [180].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Short-term: NR is rated neutral, while RU is rated slightly bullish [4] - Medium to long-term: RU is rated slightly bearish, and NR is rated slightly bearish [4] - RU9-1 spread: Slightly bearish [4] - RU-NR spread: Neutral [4] - Production area weather: Neutral [4] - Thai supply: Neutral [4] - Domestic supply: Slightly bullish [4] - Tires: Neutral [4] - Dairy products: Neutral [4] - Social inventory: RU is slightly bullish, and NR is slightly bullish [4] - Futures inventory: RU is neutral, and NR is neutral [4] - Non-standard spread: Slightly bearish [4] Core Views - As of August 5, RU and NR prices declined; the RU-NR spread first narrowed and then widened; the spreads of RU09-01, NR continuous one - continuous two, and continuous two - continuous three widened [4] - RU: Spot offers adjusted downward following the market, with prices falling from highs (bearish). Continuous rainfall in domestic main production areas disrupted tapping operations, supporting rubber prices (bullish). Light-colored rubber inventories continued to decline (bullish). It is expected that RU prices will fluctuate with an upward bias this week [4] - NR: In Southeast Asian main production areas, local heavy rainfall limited raw material output, supporting the stabilization of latex prices (bullish). Exports of all-steel and semi-steel tires decreased (bearish), and the operating rate dropped significantly (bearish). End-of-month shipments led to a decline in finished product inventories. It is predicted that NR prices will fluctuate widely this week [4] Summary by Related Catalogs New Energy Vehicle Development and Tire Demand - By 2035, pure electric vehicles will become the mainstream of newly sold vehicles. By 2025, new energy vehicle sales will account for 20% of total new vehicle sales. The production and sales of new energy passenger and commercial vehicles will increase rapidly, with the proportion of new energy passenger vehicles rising from 8% to 18%, boosting tire matching demand [7] - Semi-steel tires: Benefit from the booming new energy vehicle sales and policy incentives (such as trade-ins), with good matching demand. All-steel tires: Mainly constrained by factors such as the sluggish real estate market, with long-term pressured demand. The replacement demand from 2020 - 2021 remains to be released [16] Inventory Status - As of August 1, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 631,800 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.35%. Bonded area inventory was 75,500 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.40%; general trade inventory was 556,300 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.47% [29] - The inbound rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses increased by 1.66%, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.12%. The inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 2.01%, and the outbound rate increased by 0.85% [29] - In previous years, inventory reduction started from April - May, but this year, inventory increased from June - July and only started to decline slightly recently [29] - As of August 3, the social inventory of light-colored rubber was 455,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.82%. The social inventory of dark-colored rubber was 804,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.12% [4] Tire Operating Rate - As of July 31, the operating rate of Chinese tire companies' all-steel tires was 61.08%, a week-on-week decrease of 3.94% [43] - As of July 31, the operating rate of Chinese tire companies' semi-steel tires was 74.45%, a week-on-week decrease of 1.42%. Some enterprises scheduled maintenance at the end of the month, dragging down the overall operating rate. End-of-month shipments led to lower finished product inventories [45] Production Area Conditions - Precipitation was concentrated in Northeast China, with a minor impact. Attention should be paid to the situation after the ceasefire of the Thailand-Cambodia conflict [57] - In the Vietnamese production area, there was still local rainfall interference, but overall output showed a seasonal increase. In July 2025, Vietnam's natural rubber exports were 206,200 tons, an increase of 62,300 tons month-on-month, a 43.27% month-on-month increase, and a 10.82% year-on-year increase. From January - July, Vietnam's cumulative natural rubber exports were 903,100 tons, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 0.95%. Tapping started in mid-April, and the peak production period is from July - November [65] - Compared with previous years, the phenological conditions were normal. Without extreme weather disturbances, overseas main production areas would continue to increase supply, with strong supply. ANRPC predicts that the global natural rubber production in 2025 will increase by 0.5% year-on-year to 14.892 million tons; among them, Thailand will increase by 1.2%, Indonesia will decrease by 9.8%, Malaysia will decrease by 4.2%, Vietnam will decrease by 1.3%, China will increase by 6%, India will increase by 5.6%, and other countries will increase by 3.5% [68] - In July, four typhoons landed in China, and the phased rainfall in the production areas affected the tapping rhythm. The China Meteorological Administration predicted that in August, 4 - 5 typhoons are expected to form in the Northwest Pacific and South China Sea, fewer than the normal period (5.6). 2 - 3 typhoons are expected to land or significantly affect China (2.3 landings in the normal period) [73] Price and Spread Conditions - As of August 5, the price of Shanghai Vietnam 3L was 14,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan/ton from the previous week. The price of Shanghai state-owned whole milk was 14,450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 450 yuan/ton from the previous week. The price of Shanghai RSS3 was 19,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 350 yuan/ton from the previous week [93] - As of August 5, the RU-NR spread was 2,245 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous week. With rainfall interference in Yunnan's main production area in China and the arrival of the peak production period in Southeast Asian main production areas, the spread is expected to continue to widen [4][106][107] - As of August 5, the spread between Thai mixed spot and RU main contract narrowed to -245 yuan/ton. From the perspective of the Thai mixed spot market, after the previous rubber price increase, arbitrage positions actively increased. During the period, the rubber price declined, and arbitrage positions were less willing to sell at low prices. The decline in the spot price was less than that of RU, and the basis narrowed month-on-month [123] - As of August 5, the RU09-01 spread was -915 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton from the previous week. The RU01-05 spread was -85 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous week. The NR continuous one - continuous two spread was -55 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous week. The NR continuous two - continuous three spread was -40 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton from the previous week [131]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Manganese Silicide: Core view - Neutral; Month spread - Neutral; Spot - Bearish; Steel production - Bullish; Inventory - Bearish; Cost - profit - Neutral [3] - Ferrosilicon: Core view - Bearish; Month spread - Neutral; Spot - Neutral; Steel & Magnesium production - Neutral; Inventory - Bearish; Cost - profit - Neutral [4] Core Views - Manganese Silicide: This week, the market fluctuated after a rally. Supply increased, demand from the steel industry improved slightly, and the overall cost rose. The spot market had average trading volume, and the inventory of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts continued to decline [3]. - Ferrosilicon: The market fluctuated this week. The spot trading atmosphere was poor. Supply increased and was still in the process of resuming production. Demand from the steel industry increased slightly, while the production of magnesium decreased, and export volume remained weak. The cost was expected to rise in the long - term [4]. Summary by Directory Manganese Silicide Manganese Ore - Port inventory totaled 438.5 million tons, with a significant differentiation between northern and southern regions. Tianjin Port's inventory decreased to 353.5 million tons, lower than last year's level, while Qinzhou Port's inventory increased slightly to 84.5 million tons, higher than last year's level [10]. - Jupiter announced the shipment price for manganese ore to China in September 2025. Port manganese ore prices declined slightly [15]. Supply - As of August 8, the weekly production of manganese silicide increased to 195,800 tons, with daily average production rising in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Yunnan, Guizhou, and Guangxi [28]. Demand - As of August 8, the weekly demand of Mysteel sample enterprises increased slightly to 125,200 tons. The weekly production of five major steel products increased to 869,210 tons, and the proportion of rebar increased [38]. Price - The spot market had average trading volume, and prices fluctuated with the market. The price in Inner Mongolia was around 5,820 yuan/ton, and in Tianjin, it was 5,950 yuan/ton. HeSteel's first inquiry price for the tender was 6,000 yuan/ton [49]. Cost - Profit - As of August 7, the immediate profit of manganese silicide was low. Although the profit improved in the short - term after the market rally, the overall price fluctuated greatly, and the continuous increase in chemical coke compressed the profit margin [54]. Month Spread - As of August 8, the September - January spread of manganese silicide was - 80 yuan/ton, showing a significant decline compared to the previous period [61]. Warehouse Receipts - As of August 7, the total of manganese silicide warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 387,000 tons, and the overall trend continued to decline [63]. Ferrosilicon Supply - As of August 8, the weekly production increased to 109,100 tons. The production in Inner Mongolia increased significantly, while that in Ningxia decreased slightly, and the production in Shaanxi remained unchanged [67]. Demand - The demand from steel mills increased slightly. The total consumption of ferrosilicon by Mysteel sample steel mills was 20,300 tons, slightly higher than the historical average [70]. - The production of magnesium decreased slightly, and the export price of magnesium remained stable [78]. Cost - Profit - As of August 7, the point - to - point profit of ferrosilicon worsened, but the overall profit was good. Only Shaanxi had significant losses, while Ningxia had relatively high profits [98]. Month Spread - As of August 7, the September - January spread of ferrosilicon was - 178 yuan/ton, showing a significant decline compared to the previous period and was at a historically low level [100]. Warehouse Receipts - As of August 7, the total of ferrosilicon warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 107,300 tons, showing a significant decline compared to the previous period but still at a high level [103]. Supply - Demand Balance Forecast Manganese Silicide - From October 2024 to December 2025, the total supply and demand showed fluctuations. There were periods of surplus and shortage, and the year - on - year growth rates of production and consumption also changed over time [105]. Ferrosilicon - From October 2024 to December 2025, the total supply and demand also fluctuated. There were periods of surplus and shortage, and the year - on - year growth rates of production and consumption changed over time [106].

Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Neutral [4] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Bearish [5] Core Views High-sulfur fuel oil - OPEC+ is expected to increase production by about 550,000 barrels per day. Chevron has regained the license to produce oil in Venezuela, and the crude oil logistics from Venezuela to Asia has decreased. Currently, the high-sulfur supply in Asia is sufficient and inventories are accumulating. The bunker fuel加注 volume in Fujairah has weakened month-on-month. As the deadline for the agreement set by the US on Russia approaches, the high-sulfur price is relatively supported. Attention should be paid to the recent high-sulfur spot procurement and digestion, tariff sanctions, and crude oil quotas [4]. Low-sulfur fuel oil - OPEC+ continues to increase production, and the crude oil price is weakening. In the short term, the low-sulfur fuel oil price is expected to fluctuate. The low-sulfur arrivals in Singapore reached a high in August, and the low-sulfur shipments from Kuwait are stable, with no obvious increase in low-sulfur supply. The low-sulfur market in China has sufficient supply, and demand is mainly driven by rigid needs. The domestic bunker fuel market is at a standstill. In July, CNOOC's low-sulfur quota was exhausted, and the production scheduling expectations of Sinopec and PetroChina are weak. Attention should be paid to the recent adjustment or issuance of low-sulfur quotas [5]. Summary by Category High-sulfur fuel oil - **裂差**: Under the influence of tariff sanctions, as the negotiation deadline between the US and Russia approaches, Russian oil exports are受阻, and the supply risk premium has increased. The high-sulfur crack spread is at a high level and has strengthened compared to last week [4]. - **价差**: The decline in international crude oil prices has dragged down the fuel oil price [4]. - **供应**: The global total shipments are expected to be loose, and the arrivals in Singapore are relatively high [4]. - **需求**: The power generation demand weakened after reaching its peak in August [4]. - **库存**: Inventories at the ports of Singapore and Zhoushan have significantly increased [4]. Low-sulfur fuel oil - **裂差**: Under the influence of tariff sanctions, as the negotiation deadline between the US and Russia approaches, Russian oil exports are受阻, and the supply risk premium has increased. The low-sulfur crack spread fluctuates slightly within the range of $10 - $12 per ton and has rebounded slightly compared to last week [5]. - **价差**: The spot spread of low-sulfur fuel oil is weak and under short-term pressure, and the spread between high and low-sulfur fuels has narrowed [5]. - **供应**: The global low-sulfur supply has not changed much. Dangote Refinery cancelled its maintenance in June, and the increase in Brazilian exports has remained stable. The low-sulfur exports from Al-Zour have recovered with the end of technical problem maintenance, and recent outbound shipments have remained at a high level. In July, CNOOC's low-sulfur quota was exhausted, and the production scheduling expectations of Sinopec and PetroChina are weak [5]. - **需求**: The low-sulfur power generation demand in summer has weakened, the bunker fuel demand remains stable, and downstream buyers take delivery based on rigid needs [5]. - **库存**: The arrivals of low-sulfur fuel oil in China have continued to rise to a historical high [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for lead is "Oscillating Bullish" [3] Core Viewpoints - Overall, the losses of primary and secondary lead enterprises have widened, but there have been few production cuts or restarts, resulting in little marginal change in supply. On the demand side, the peak season is not obvious, dealers' inventories are high, and inventory reduction is poor. The recent marginal variable comes from the sewage inspection in Anhui, where individual secondary smelters have slightly reduced production. The overall production of primary and secondary smelters is normal, and there is no significant change in supply increment. The rigid cost of concentrates and waste batteries supports the bottom of the lead price, and the lead price is mainly in a strong oscillation, with weak monthly spread/ratio drivers [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Company Production and News - Pan American Silver Corp's zinc concentrate production in Q2 2025 was 12,600 tons, a year-on-year increase of 25%, and lead concentrate production was 6,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 22% [6]. - GatosSilver's zinc metal production in Q2 2025 was about 7,300 tons, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 29%. Its 2025 zinc production guidance was raised to 52 - 56 million pounds [6]. - Nyrstar received 135 million Australian dollars in support from the Australian government to promote the reconstruction of smelters and the development of key metals [6]. 2. Lead Concentrate Processing Fees - The national average price of lead concentrate processing fees this week was 435 yuan/metal ton, a month-on-month decrease of 55 yuan/ton [3][8]. 3. Lead Concentrate Imports - In June 2025, the import volume of lead ore and its concentrates was about 118,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 13.54% and a year-on-year increase of 26.90% [9]. - As of August 1, the port inventory was 17,700 tons, with a slight increase. The tender price of imported lead ore was inverted by over 100 US dollars, and smelters had poor acceptance [13]. 4. Futures Prices - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,850 yuan/ton, with a high of 17,010 yuan/ton, a low of 16,820 yuan/ton, and closed at 16,955 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 0.8%. Structurally, Shanghai lead maintained a C structure with small monthly spread contradictions [15]. - Last week, London lead opened at 2,010 US dollars/ton, with a high of 2,042 US dollars/ton, a low of 1,994 US dollars/ton, and closed at 2,040 US dollars/ton, a weekly increase of 1.42%. Structurally, the outer market maintained a Contango structure, and the LME lead 0 - 3 spread strengthened, operating around -20 US dollars/ton [18]. 5. Industry Profits - The profit of the primary lead industry was a loss of 800 yuan/ton, with the loss widening month-on-month. There were both production cuts and restarts in primary lead, and after offsetting, production was expected to maintain an increase [25]. - The profit of the secondary lead industry was a loss of 1,000 yuan/ton, with the loss widening month-on-month. Some smelters in Anhui and Hebei planned to end maintenance, and secondary lead supply would increase slightly [27]. 6. Waste Battery Supply - This week, the tax-excluded price of waste electric batteries in most regions was maintained at 9,900 - 9,950 yuan/ton. The market found it difficult to purchase at this price, and the overall price of waste batteries was slightly weak [30]. 7. Inventories - As of August 6, the LME lead ingot inventory was 269,400 tons, unchanged month-on-month [34]. - As of August 1, the SHFE lead inventory was 63,300 tons, unchanged month-on-month [35]. - As of Thursday this week, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five regions was 71,100 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1,800 tons [38]. 8. Lead-Zinc Ratio - As of Thursday this week, the domestic lead-zinc ratio was 0.75, and the foreign lead-zinc ratio was 0.71 [40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating of the oil industry is neutral [5] 2. Core Views - Due to the recent macroeconomic slowdown and OPEC's production increase, the market is under phased pressure. The current price level is neutrally evaluated, and volatility strategies are recommended. The market is mainly trading based on fundamentals, with no obvious weakening trend overall. Attention should be paid to the purchasing trends of China and India and subsequent logistics changes [4] - The core view of the report is neutral [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Factors Assessment - **OPEC Production**: Bullish. OPEC increased production further in September, and there is market discussion about the possible disruption of Russian oil supply due to sanctions [6] - **Macro**: Bearish. The non - farm payroll data declined significantly, and the market is worried about a recession again [6] - **SPR**: Bullish. The US SPR is being replenished at a rate of about 30,000 - 50,000 barrels per day, mainly for slow and low - cost restocking [6] - **Geopolitics & Sanctions**: Bullish. The US has tightened sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil, pushing up the price of Middle Eastern oil [6] - **Downstream Demand**: Neutral. The spot premium shows a marginal weakening trend [6] - **Shale Oil**: Neutral. Last week's production was 13.28 million barrels per day, and the number of rigs remained at 415. There is a downward trend in the number of rigs, which will gradually lead to a decrease in production [6] 3.2 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **Production**: From 2024Q1 to 2026Q4, the total production shows fluctuations. OPEC production has its own adjustment rhythm, and non - OPEC production also changes. The adjustment of the balance sheet shows changes in production in different quarters [7] - **Demand**: Total demand also fluctuates over the quarters from 2024Q1 to 2026Q4. OECD and non - OECD demand have their own trends, and the Call On OPEC also varies [7] - **Surplus**: The surplus amount shows positive and negative values in different quarters, indicating the balance between supply and demand in the market [7] 3.3 Macroeconomic Data - The non - farm payroll data on Friday was poor. In July, the number of new non - farm jobs increased by only 73,000, the lowest since October 2024. The previous two months' data was revised down by 258,000. The private sector's momentum has slowed significantly, and wage growth is also declining [10] - Due to the significant weakening of the labor market, the market's expectation of interest rate cuts has increased. The probability of a 25 - BP interest rate cut in September is over 90%, and there are expected to be three interest rate cuts this year (September, October, December), each by 25 BP. The market is worried about an economic recession again, and risk assets are under phased pressure [13] 3.4 Market Conditions - Affected by the increase in refinery maintenance, the North Sea premium has a phased weakening trend. As of August 7, CFD and DFL closed at $1.02/barrel and $1.08/barrel respectively [19] - Refinery operations reached a new high, and commercial crude oil inventories continued to decline [21] - Recently, the floating storage (especially in - transit inventory) has decreased significantly. The in - transit inventory and floating storage decreased by 29.1 million barrels and 2.6 million barrels respectively on a weekly basis, which has a significant suppressing effect on the market [24] - Saudi Arabia announced its September premium. For light, medium, and heavy crude oil, the adjustments for shipments to the Americas, Europe, and Asia are different. Most of the Middle East's production increase is absorbed by Asia, and attention should be paid to the continuous purchasing of India and China [25] 3.5 Futures Market Data - As of August 7, the WTI near - term spread closed at $0.98/barrel, the 1 - 6 spread was $2.5/barrel; the Brent near - term spread was $0.62/barrel, the 1 - 6 spread was $1.6/barrel; the SC near - term spread was 3.8 yuan/barrel [30] - In the week of July 29, WTI funds' long positions increased by 3,144 lots, short positions increased by 3,994 lots, and net long positions decreased by 850 lots. Brent funds' long positions increased by 13,180 lots, short positions decreased by 9,548 lots, and net long positions increased by 22,730 lots [46][51]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Methanol: Neutral [3] - Thermal Coal: Bullish [3] - Domestic Supply: Bullish [3] - Imports: Bearish [3] - Downstream Demand: Neutral [3] - Upstream Profits: Neutral [3] - MTO Profits: Bearish [3] - Inventory: Neutral [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short term, the reality of methanol is weak, but the expectation is strong due to macro and demand increment expectations, leading to a continuous decline in the recent month spread. The short - term strategy is still a reverse arbitrage logic. For unilateral trading, more attention should be paid to the impact of commodity sentiment, and look for long opportunities at low levels in forward contracts [3]. - Coal prices have continued to rebound recently, with pit - mouth prices rising, and coal has entered the peak season [3]. - The domestic methanol operating rate has rebounded slightly but remains low, with many domestic plants under maintenance, resulting in a reduction in inland supply [3]. - Overseas plants are resuming production, and there is significant import pressure in August. However, the recent natural gas shortage in Iran has led to a reduction in supply, and the sustainability of this impact should be monitored [3]. - The operating rate of traditional downstream demand is firm, and the procurement sentiment inland is fair. For olefin plants, there are both restarts and maintenance. Xingxing is under maintenance while Mengda has restarted, resulting in a reduction in coastal demand [3]. - The profit of coal - to - methanol has remained stable, the profit of natural - gas - to - methanol has remained in the red, and the profit of coke - oven - gas - to - methanol has rebounded slightly [3]. - The MTO profit has rebounded significantly but remains weak [3]. - Ports have continued to accumulate inventory, while inland inventory has remained low [3]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Supply Domestic Supply - As of the week ending August 1, the national methanol plant operating rate was 71.5%, with the coal - to - methanol plant operating rate at 76.6%, the coke - oven - gas - to - methanol plant operating rate at 56.8%, and the natural - gas - to - methanol plant operating rate at 49.9% [11]. - During the period from July 25 to July 31, Yulin Kaiyue, Yankuang Yulin, Shenmu Chemical, Shanxi Linxin, and Shanxi Gengyang restarted, while Shaanxi Changqing and Runzhong Clean started maintenance. Many domestic plants, including Gansu Huating, Yulin Kaiyue, etc., are still under maintenance [13][14]. Overseas Supply - In Iran, multiple plants are operating at low loads, and two plants are shut down. The high - peak summer electricity demand in Iran has led to a natural gas shortage, which may affect methanol production. For example, Zagros PC's two sets of 330 - ton - per - year plants are operating at low loads, and Bushehr and Fanavaran PC are under maintenance [19]. - In other regions, Shell in Germany, Bioethanol in the Netherlands, and some plants in Malaysia, the US, Trinidad, Venezuela, New Zealand, and Chile also have various operating conditions such as shutdowns and low - load operations [19]. Demand Traditional Demand - The operating rate of traditional downstream demand has changed little. The operating rates of formaldehyde and dimethyl ether have rebounded slightly, while those of MTBE and acetic acid have declined. Currently, it is the off - season for traditional demand, but overall, it still shows resilience. The current profit of traditional downstream sectors is low, and it remains to be seen whether the peak demand season will materialize [51]. - The downstream procurement volume has declined recently. The procurement of olefins has slowed down after the previous restocking, and the procurement volume of traditional demand has declined continuously, mainly due to the recent price decline suppressing buying sentiment and the impact of the current traditional off - season [56]. Olefin Demand - As of July 31, the MTO operating rate was 81%, and the operating rate of externally - sourced methanol - to - olefin plants was 76.4%. Mengda's MTO plant restarted at the end of the month, and Xingxing's MTO plant shut down for maintenance [40]. - The profit of East China's MTO plants has recently recovered, mainly due to the recent decline in methanol prices in East China. However, the relatively strong inland methanol prices have led to a recent decline in inland profits [40]. Profits - Coal - to - methanol profit has remained stable, natural - gas - to - methanol profit has remained in the red, and coke - oven - gas - to - methanol profit has rebounded slightly. As of August 4, the profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia was 136.5 yuan/ton, the profit of natural - gas - to - methanol in Southwest China was - 270 yuan/ton, and the profit of coke - oven - gas - to - methanol in Hebei was 275 yuan/ton [32]. - MTO profit has rebounded significantly but remains weak [3]. Inventory - This week, the port inventory is 91.5 tons, and the port's tradable inventory is 43.6 tons, continuing to accumulate. Ports are in the seasonal inventory accumulation period. With the shutdown of East China's MTO plants and the realization of increased imports, ports are expected to continue to accumulate inventory. Inland enterprise inventory has remained low and continued to decline last week. With more inland plants under maintenance and the large - scale procurement by an inland enterprise, the inland sentiment is expected to remain strong [74]. - The inventory of MTO sample enterprises has decreased slightly. The port procurement volume slowed down last week after the downstream's phased restocking. It is expected that procurement will increase slightly this week. The raw - material inventory of traditional downstream sectors has changed little [80]. Market Spreads - The basis of the East China main contract has remained weak recently. With ports continuing to accumulate inventory, the spot basis in East China has been continuously declining. It is expected that the basis will remain weak in July and August [89]. - The 9 - 1 month spread has been continuously declining. The weak reality has pressured the near - end price, but the macro situation and the improved expectation for methanol itself have made the far - end stronger. In the short term, the reverse arbitrage logic is expected to continue [89]. - The PP/L - 3MA spread has strengthened recently. After the methanol price reached a high and then declined, the spread first contracted and then expanded. In the short term, the volatility of the spread still depends on the methanol side, and short - term trading in bands is recommended [94]. Balance Sheet - The total methanol production, supply, and consumption show different trends throughout 2025. For example, the total production is expected to reach 742 tons in August 2025, with coal accounting for 614 tons, natural gas for 54 tons, and coke - oven gas for 74 tons. The total supply is expected to be 867 tons, and the consumption is expected to be 860 tons [98].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel market's fundamentals weakened marginally last week. With the LME nickel inventory increasing by 2.47% to 209,100 tons, the real - world demand is not optimistic. If there are no new disruptions on the supply side in the short term, nickel prices may fluctuate around the cost line [3][4]. - The stainless - steel social inventory has decreased for three consecutive weeks, and the fundamentals have improved marginally. However, this is mainly due to the settlement and pick - up of previous futures contracts, and the subsequent inventory reduction speed may slow down. The scheduled stainless - steel production for August has increased month - on - month, and the short - term supply remains high, with prices likely to fluctuate within a certain range [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel - **Price and Inventory**: - The spot price of electrolytic nickel as of August 4 decreased by 1,950 yuan/ton to 121,250 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.58%. The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 1,750 yuan/ton to 122,500 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.41%, and its premium increased by 200 to 2,350 yuan/ton. The price of imported nickel decreased by 2,000 yuan/ton to 120,500 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.63%, and its premium decreased by 50 to 350 yuan/ton [16]. - The LME nickel price as of August 4 decreased by 125 dollars/ton to 15,105 dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.82%. The LME nickel 0 - 3 spot premium increased by 7.72 dollars/ton to - 200.74 dollars/ton [21]. - The SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 783 tons to 21,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.57%. The LME nickel warehouse receipts increased by 5,000 tons to 209,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.47%. The pure nickel social inventory (including the SHFE) decreased by 795 tons to 39,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.01%. The East China social inventory decreased by 1,094 tons to 13,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.38%, and the Shanghai Free Trade Zone inventory increased by 500 tons to 5,200 tons [46]. - **Supply**: - As of July 2025, China's electrolytic nickel monthly output increased by 0.1 million tons to 32,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.14% and a year - on - year increase of 13.69% [43]. - As of June 2025, China's refined nickel monthly export volume was 10,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 27.41% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.01%. The monthly import volume was 17,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.0% and a year - on - year increase of 132.29%. From January to June 2025, China's cumulative refined nickel export volume was 91,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 107.42%, and the cumulative import volume was 94,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 127.16% [43]. - **Cost and Profit**: - As of June 2025, the average production cost of SMM electrolytic nickel decreased by 948 dollars/ton to 13,025 dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6.78% [51]. - As of June 2025, the production cost of electrowon nickel from integrated MHP and high - grade nickel matte increased by 1,066 and decreased by 3,629 yuan/ton respectively to 121,953 yuan/ton and 129,163 yuan/ton. The profit margins increased by 0.2 and 3.5 percentage points respectively to - 1.4% and - 6.9% [51]. Sulfuric Acid Nickel - **Production and Demand**: - As of July 2025, China's sulfuric acid nickel monthly output increased by 0.43 million tons to 29,100 nickel tons, a month - on - month increase of 17.3%. Recently, some precursor factories have restocking needs, and their price acceptance has also increased, leading to a recovery in the supply of sulfuric acid nickel [58]. - As of June 2025, China's sulfuric acid nickel monthly import volume was 13,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 27.35% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.01%. The monthly export volume was 782.1 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.66% and a year - on - year decrease of 41.02% [58]. - **Profit Margin**: As of August 4, the profit margins of producing sulfuric acid nickel from MHP, nickel beans, high - grade nickel matte, and yellow slag increased by 3.5, 1.6, 3.9, and 1.5 respectively to 1.5%, - 1.7%, 5.6%, and - 2% [63]. Ferronickel - **Production**: - As of July 2025, the national nickel pig iron production (metal content) decreased by 0.11 million tons to 24,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.59%. In Indonesia, the nickel pig iron production decreased by 0.24 million tons to 134,400 nickel tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.73% [70]. - Many domestic ferronickel enterprises are operating at reduced loads or are shut down for maintenance [70]. - **Inventory and Profit**: - As of July 31, the national main - region nickel pig iron inventory (metal tons) increased by 182 tons to 33,400 nickel tons (average grade 11.72%), a month - on - month increase of 0.55% [77]. - As of August 4, the cash production cost of RKEF in Fujian remained flat at 1,031 yuan/nickel point, and the production profit margin remained flat at - 11.25% [77]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Market Performance**: - Last week, the stainless - steel main contract ss2509 opened at 13,045 yuan/ton, closed at 12,840 yuan/ton, with a weekly high of 13,130 yuan/ton and a low of 12,760 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 1.46% [81]. - As of August 4, the 304/2B coil - rough edge Wuxi quotation increased by 100 to 13,000 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.78% [81]. - **Inventory and Production**: - As of August 1, the stainless - steel social inventory decreased by 0.74 million tons to 1,111,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.66%. The 300 - series inventory increased by 0.67 million tons to 676,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.0%. The stainless - steel inventory has decreased for three consecutive weeks, and the inventory reduction speed has slowed down this week [84]. - As of July 2025, the national stainless - steel crude steel production decreased by 6.14 million tons to 3,230,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.87%. The 300 - series production decreased by 3.58 million tons to 1,708,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.05% [87]. - **Cost and Profit**: - As of August 1, the cash cost of 304 cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in China decreased by 18 yuan/ton to 13,058 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.14%. The profit margin of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils increased by 0.88 percentage points to - 3.54% [92]. - The high - nickel pig iron price was weakly stable last week, and the chromium - iron price remained stable, so the stainless - steel cost support still exists [92].