PTA&MEG 聚聚聚聚聚聚聚聚聚聚聚 聚聚聚聚 2026/2/24 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 | PTA | 聚聚聚聚聚 | 聚聚 | | --- | --- | --- | | 核心观点 | 中性 | 假期原油反弹偏多,PX/PTA高开上涨。假期PTA供应变化不大，需求聚酯负荷不高，假期累库偏多，节后 关注地缘和油价影响。3月PTA计划检修量不低，供需预期向好，整体低买思路。 | | 月差 | 中性 | 月差企稳，现实端累库中，3月后预期尚可。 | | 现货 | 中性 | PTA现货市场商谈一般，基差偏弱，2月货在05-70附近商谈，价格商谈区间在5250~5300附近。 | | 成本 | 中性 | 假期PX装置负荷高位，近端浮动价一般，PXN320美元附近，成本PX现实一般，预期尚可。 | | 装置变动 | 谨慎偏多 | 假期新材料重启，英力士125万吨按计划检修中，另一条110万吨短停5天。独山2月10日检修中，YS3套装 置检修中。3月PTA计划检修不低，预期供应有改善。 | | 下游需求 | 中性 | 聚酯2月检修高位，负荷不高，2-3月负荷评估79%、90%。织造复工预计初八至正月十 ...

节后销区苹果到车减少， 水果降价 苹苹苹苹 2026.2.25 作者：魏舒婷 从业资格证号：F03149087 交易咨询证号：Z0022950 研究联系方式：weishuting@zjtfqh.com 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 审核：李文涛 交易咨询证号：Z0015640 观点小结 | 苹果 | 定性 | 解析 | | --- | --- | --- | | 核心观点 | 震荡 | 今年苹果产量偏低、国内冷库库存低，累计出库不及去年同期。现货价格维持稳定，特别是好货，现货基差较上周走强。 | | | | 销区到车量较节前明显减少，节后水果批发价普遍下降，农业部监测的六种水果中下降最多的是鸭梨、其次苹果，比价 | | | | 仍处于高位区间。后续持续关注销区成交氛围、库内货源出库情况、柑橘类水果交易情况。 | | 价格表现 | 中性 | 本周苹果盘面较节前微跌，现货方面，2月24日，栖霞一、二级80#纸袋4元/斤（与上周持平），洛川70#纸袋4.2元/斤 | | | | （与上周持平），主力合约现货基差-1705元/吨（上周-1835元/吨）。 | | 供应 | 中性偏多 | 2025年我国苹果产量 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The current supply - demand of the alumina market is in a delicate balance, with the AO/AL capacity ratio falling to the 2.0 range. In the short - term, there is no obvious contradiction, but the market is highly focused on a large northern factory, and the futures price will be disturbed by non - standard news. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, and consider lightly laying out long positions at low levels as a band strategy, paying attention to taking profits in time. - Under the assumption of no large - scale concentrated resumption of production in the industry in March, the spot price is expected to gradually stabilize and rise slightly. However, the long - term oversupply situation in the alumina industry remains unchanged. The short - term price may be supported by the tightening of spot liquidity, but the space to boost prices through large - scale production cuts is increasingly limited. The long - term strategy is to sell short on rallies, while short - term opportunities to lay out long positions at low prices can be noted [4][16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply Side - The first batch of industry production cuts started from integrated factories. The inventory of a large northern factory is sufficient, and pre - holiday trader pick - up is normal, but the resumption time of specific production lines is yet to be determined. Some alumina plant startups have been postponed, with the earliest expected start from late February to early March [4]. - In the long - term, all new startups in Guangxi in the first quarter have been postponed. For example, Fangchenggang Zhongsilu is expected to start production at the end of February and the beginning of March, and Long'an Hetai New Materials' startup has been postponed. In the short - term, enterprises are gradually resuming maintenance, and there is still an expectation of capacity recovery [4][6]. - As of last Friday, the weekly alumina output was 1.814 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 16,000 tons or 0.87%. The operating capacity was 94.25 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 800,000 tons mainly due to the maintenance of a large factory [12][13]. Demand Side - In the electrolytic aluminum sector, Liaoning Xiangyu Aluminum Industry (formerly Zhongwang) is expected to resume about 300,000 tons of idle capacity in mid - March and has started purchasing alumina raw materials. In the non - aluminum sector, due to environmental protection and other reasons for seasonal production cuts, alumina procurement has basically been completed [4]. Import and Export - Due to the stalemate in domestic spot prices, it is expected that China's alumina will remain in a net - import state in January. Since October, the domestic alumina market has returned to a net - import situation. The current import profit and loss is negative, at - 55.56 yuan/ton [4][41]. Inventory - As of last Thursday, the total alumina inventory (the sum of in - factory, in - transit, raw material, and port inventories) was 5.193 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 79,000 tons. Alumina in - factory inventory increased by 23,000 tons week - on - week, accumulating for 9 consecutive weeks, and electrolytic aluminum plant raw material inventory increased by 13,000 tons week - on - week, accumulating for 23 consecutive weeks. All three types of inventories are at the highest level in the same period in the past 5 years [35]. Spot - Recently, spot prices have been firm and even increased slightly. The reasons are that as the Spring Festival approaches, traders have gradually taken holidays, reducing the number of participants in market tenders, and freight rates have risen. Although the spot is still in a surplus state, short - term liquidity tightening has led to a stalemate in prices [4]. Monthly Balance Sheet - **Scenario 1**: If new capacities are put into production as planned in March, industry production cuts are not restored until April, and a northern factory shuts down one production line, the fundamentals in March are relatively strong. - **Scenario 2**: If new capacities are put into production as planned in March, industry production cuts are not restored until April, and a northern factory resumes capacity operation, industry production cuts may still expand. Overall, under the assumption of no large - scale concentrated resumption of production in March, the spot price is expected to gradually stabilize and rise slightly [15][16]. Domestic and Overseas Spot - Domestic alumina spot transactions have stabilized before the Spring Festival due to the decreased participation of traders. The firm domestic price has attracted overseas spot for delivery. For example, some overseas alumina has been shipped to China for delivery [19][20]. Ore Price and Cost - As of this Monday, the average CIF price of Guinea bauxite was $60.5/ton, a week - on - week decrease of $0.5/ton, and the average CIF price of Australian imported ore was $59.5/ton, also a week - on - week decrease of $0.5/ton. Currently, the price negotiation of Guinea bauxite has dropped below $62/ton, and there is still room for the price to fall in the short term [26].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views For Coking Coal - The coking coal market is expected to be in a range - bound oscillation. The supply will experience a seasonal contraction as some mines start to take holidays and reduce production, while the demand is weak with only some rigid - demand purchases. The supply - demand contradiction is not obvious. Attention should be paid to the post - Spring Festival destocking speed and macro expectations [3]. For Coke - The coke market is also expected to oscillate. After the first round of price increase, the profit is good. The supply is stable, and the demand is not strongly driven. The supply - demand drive of coke itself is not obvious. After the Spring Festival, the recovery of hot metal production should be monitored [4]. Summary by Directory Coking Coal Spot Market - Near the Spring Festival, the market trading is light. Some traders and coal washing plants are on holiday. The downstream's acceptance of high prices is low, and most of the auction market transactions are at reduced prices. The pit - mouth coal price is stable with a weak trend. The price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Anze, Shanxi has dropped to 1,570 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 70 yuan/ton. The price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Jinzhong is 1,400 yuan/ton. The trading atmosphere at the Mongolian coal port is cold, with high customs clearance and large inventory pressure. The price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal has dropped to 1,010 - 1,030 yuan/ton [9][16]. Spread and Basis - The current conversion of Mongolian coal into warehouse receipts is about 1,150 yuan/ton, and the futures price is slightly at a discount. The basis has strengthened as the futures price has oscillated and declined recently [3][35]. Supply - The coal mine capacity utilization rate has rebounded to 88.3%, a week - on - week increase of 1%. The coal mine operation has continued to recover and is currently at a high level. However, since this week, some mines have entered the holiday state, and the supply has shrunk significantly. The average daily customs clearance at Ganqimaodu last week was 1,148 vehicles, and the Mongolian coal supply is still at a relatively high level [3][48]. Demand - Downstream coke and steel enterprises only maintain on - demand transportation [3]. Inventory - The upstream mine's inventory is low, and the downstream coke and steel enterprises have fully replenished their stocks and will mainly consume the previous inventory [3]. Coke Spot Market - Coke enterprises have raised the price by one round. The quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port is quoted at 1,470 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat price. The price of quasi - first - grade dry - quenched coke in Shanxi is about 1,520 - 1,535 yuan/ton. The wet - quenched warehouse receipt at the coke port is 1,600 yuan/ton, and the quasi - first - grade dry - quenched warehouse receipt is 1,720 yuan/ton [4][94]. Basis and Monthly Spread - Recently, the futures price has oscillated and declined, at a discount to the dry - quenched warehouse receipt. The 5 - 9 monthly spread has oscillated [100]. Supply - After the price increase, coke enterprises have good profits, and the operation is relatively stable. The coke production capacity utilization rate of independent coke enterprises is 72.2%, a week - on - week increase of 0.34% [4]. Demand - The average daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills is 228.6 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.6 tons. The steel mills' profitability is lower than the same period last year, and the blast furnace operation before the Spring Festival is stable but at a low level [4][105]. Profit - After the first round of price increase, the profitability of coke enterprises has improved, and the current estimated overall profitability of coking is about 70 yuan/ton [4]. Inventory - Coke enterprises have no inventory pressure, and the downstream has fully replenished stocks and will mainly consume the previous inventory [4]. Balance Sheet Coking Coal - The production, import, consumption, surplus, and inventory data from 2025/6 to 2026/6 are presented, along with the year - on - year growth rates of production and consumption [140]. Coke - The production, import, export, consumption, surplus, and inventory data from 2025/6 to 2026/6 are presented, along with the year - on - year growth rates of production and consumption [142].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recently, the lead price has dropped significantly, mainly due to the high - level surplus in the domestic lead market, the continuous opening of the lead ingot import window, and the imbalance between supply and demand [3]. - On January 30, the Shanghai Futures Exchange announced plans to include recycled lead as an alternative delivery product. In the short - term, it intensifies the downward sentiment, but after the short - term sentiment, the lead price still has cost support. In the long - term, it will smooth price fluctuations, restructure the pricing logic, and shift the lead price to "dual - track pricing of primary and recycled lead", with the cost of recycled lead and the price of waste batteries becoming core variables [4]. - After the Spring Festival, the recent significant decline in lead and silver prices and the closure of the lead concentrate import window have led some primary lead smelters to plan for maintenance, and recycled lead enterprises have also returned to low production due to profit compression. It is expected that the pressure of supply surplus will be greatly relieved, and the lead price will be supported by cost, but the rebound space may be limited due to the lack of demand highlights [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Hotspots - On January 30, 2026, the Shanghai Futures Exchange proposed to introduce recycled lead as an alternative delivery product (meeting the specifications of GB/T 21181 - 2025 ZSPb99.986 or ZSPb99.990). The new national standard for recycled lead (GB/T 21181 - 2025) was released on August 29, 2025, and will be officially implemented on March 1, 2026 [10]. - The main changes in the new national standard for recycled lead include changes in recycled lead grades, adjustment of impurity content, and an increase in the single - ingot weight specification [10]. - Incorporating recycled lead into the futures delivery system can make the futures price more comprehensively and truly reflect the actual supply - demand situation of the lead market, and more compliant recycled lead enterprises will have the opportunity to participate in the futures market. In the short - term, it suppresses the rebound, in the medium - term, it helps reduce delivery risks and smooth market fluctuations, and in the long - term, it reconstructs the lead price pricing logic [10]. Weekly Fundamental Situation Main Industry News - Zijin Mining Group plans to keep its 2026 production of zinc (lead) at 400,000 tons, the same as in 2025, and aims for 400,000 - 450,000 tons in 2028 [12]. - In 2025, China's motorcycle production and sales increased by over 10% year - on - year. Yadea led the electric motorcycle market with 921,100 units sold [12]. - Kunming University of Science and Technology's technology center completed the construction of an energy - storage system for a cloud computing center, marking an important breakthrough in the application of its aluminum - based lead - carbon battery technology in the energy - storage field of computing centers [12]. Lead Concentrate Production and Processing Fees - The national average processing fee for lead concentrate is 250 yuan/metal ton, unchanged from last week; the average processing fee for imported ore is - 150 US dollars/dry ton, also unchanged from last week. The overall processing fee shows a slight downward trend [16]. - With the arrival of winter - storage supplies, the raw material inventory of smelters has increased. In December, the raw material inventory days of primary lead smelters were 27 days, up 1 day from November, and remained at 27 days in January, at a relatively high level [16]. - Due to the recent decline in precious metal prices, some smelters no longer accept the extremely low - price quotes of lead concentrate processing fees, but the processing fees of lead concentrates rich in medium - low silver remain stable [16]. Lead Concentrate Import - In December 2025, the import volume of lead ore and its concentrates was 149,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 35.8% and a year - on - year increase of 24.63%. The cumulative import volume in 2025 was 1.4356 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 14%, with 50% coming from Russia [23]. - As of February 6, the port inventory of lead concentrate was 32,200 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from last week, showing an overall inventory - accumulation trend [23]. - Since January, the lead concentrate import window has been completely closed. Coupled with the decline in smelter demand during the Spring Festival, it is expected that the import volume of lead concentrate in the first quarter will drop to a relatively low level [23]. Primary Lead Production - In the week of February 5, the operating rate of primary lead enterprises was 61.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.31 percentage points [28]. - Recently, with the support of by - products such as silver and sulfuric acid, the profit of primary lead enterprises has risen to about 2,000 yuan/ton, reversing the loss in October. Stimulated by high profits, the domestic electrolytic lead production reached a new high in January. By February 5, the weekly finished - product inventory of major primary lead delivery brands was 8,950 tons, a significant decrease from 28,200 tons at the end of January [29]. - In February, due to the Spring Festival and the significant decline in lead and silver prices, some primary lead smelters plan to carry out maintenance, and it is expected that the electrolytic lead production in February will decrease by more than 12 percentage points month - on - month [29]. Recycled Lead Production - In the week of February 5, the operating rate of recycled lead enterprises was 38.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.9 percentage points. In January, the raw material inventory of lead smelting enterprises increased, and some recycled lead smelters increased production. Two smelters in East and Central China resumed production, boosting the recycled lead production in January [33]. - Since late January, the profit of recycled lead enterprises has turned negative again. Currently, large - scale enterprises have an average loss of about 200 yuan/ton, while small and medium - scale enterprises have a loss of more than 400 yuan/ton. Due to poor terminal consumption, the finished - product inventory of recycled lead plants reached a historical high in January [33]. - During the Spring Festival, the shutdown of enterprises was one week earlier than usual. Coupled with the decrease in the number of days in February, the recycled lead production in February decreased by about 110,000 tons. The resumption of work in recycled lead plants is mostly concentrated in March [33]. Lead - containing Waste Materials - This week, affected by the continuous decline in lead prices and relatively sufficient short - term raw material inventory, recycled lead smelters reduced purchase prices. Some small and medium - sized recycling enterprises became more active in selling due to fear of price drops, leading to a short - term price decline of waste lead - acid batteries [37]. - During the Spring Festival, the shutdown cycle of the waste battery recycling industry is similar to previous years. Market transactions gradually became light from early February, and most enterprises will resume operation around the Lantern Festival (February 24) [37]. Primary Processing End - In the week of February 5, the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was 65.83%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.19 percentage points [44]. - In January, the finished - product inventory of lead - acid battery enterprises was 23.5 days, an increase of 2 days from the previous month; the finished - product inventory of dealers was 40.74 days, a decrease of 2.85 days from the previous month. The inventory pressure of dealers is still relatively high [44]. - In January, the terminal consumption of the lead - acid battery market was weak, the inventory digestion of dealers was slow, and pre - holiday inventory preparation was cautious. Lead - acid battery enterprises had high finished - product inventory, and their pre - holiday inventory preparation for lead ingots was limited, resulting in light transactions in the lead spot market [44]. Inventory Situation - As of February 11, the total LME lead ingot inventory was 232,950 tons, a month - on - month increase of 100 tons. There was a large - scale delivery of nearly 30,000 tons at the end of January. The overall LME inventory remained relatively stable at a high level [49]. - As of February 12, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five locations was 53,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13,500 tons [49]. - As of February 6, the total SHFE lead inventory was 47,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,720 tons. The social inventory of lead ingots before the Spring Festival this year reached a historical high [49]. Structure Shanghai Lead Spread Structure - As of Wednesday this week, the domestic spot average was at a discount of 190 yuan/ton to the Shanghai lead main contract 03, basically unchanged from last week. The Shanghai lead market maintains a Contango structure with little short - term change [55]. London Lead Spread Structure - The outer - market LME maintains a Contango structure. Recently, the LME lead 0 - 3 discount has shown a slight widening trend. On February 11, the LME 0 - 3 spread was - 48.07 US dollars/ton [59]. Shanghai - London Ratio Change - As of February 11, the Shanghai - London ratio rose slightly to 8.46, excluding the exchange ratio of 1.22. The spot import profit and loss of lead ingots was around - 16 yuan/ton, the import loss narrowed, and the import window, which was closed at the beginning of January, is approaching to open again [62]. London Lead Position and Warehouse Receipt Concentration - The LME's FuturesBandingReport shows that the short - position concentration in the near - month is relatively high, and both long and short positions have increased, indicating intensified long - short competition [67]. - The CashReport and WarrantBandingReport show that the concentration of cash and tom during the delivery week is relatively high, and the warehouse receipt concentration has increased [66].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The nickel price has recently shown a volatile consolidation pattern, with the fundamentals continuing the game between strong expectations and weak reality. Although the market expects a significant contraction in Indonesian nickel supply due to quota reduction, the previous increase in nickel price has led to a short - term increase in supply and continuous accumulation of domestic inventory. In the future, the nickel fundamentals still have a repair expectation. The raw material ore price has risen significantly, and the rainy - season disturbances and the delay of the MOMS system review still restrict the supply. The nickel ore premium may increase further, and the cost support of the nickel industry chain is strong, which is expected to provide bottom - line resilience for the price [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Performance - **Futures**: Last week, the Shanghai nickel main contract opened at 138,000 yuan/ton, closed at 131,840 yuan/ton, with a weekly high of 141,100 yuan/ton and a low of 129,300 yuan/ton, down 5.83% for the week. The stainless - steel main contract opened at 14,100 yuan/ton, closed at 13,670 yuan/ton, with a weekly high of 14,115 yuan/ton and a low of 13,420 yuan/ton, down 3.32% for the week [9][79]. - **Spot**: As of February 9, the electrolytic nickel spot price decreased by 750 yuan/ton to 139,450 yuan/ton, a 0.53% week - on - week decrease; the Jinchuan nickel price decreased by 500 yuan/ton to 144,150 yuan/ton, a 0.35% week - on - week decrease; the imported nickel price decreased by 1,250 yuan/ton to 134,600 yuan/ton, a 0.92% week - on - week decrease. The 304/2B coil - rough edge Wuxi quotation decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 14,100 yuan/ton [16][79]. - **Import and Export**: As of February 6, the LME nickel price decreased by 320 US dollars/ton to 17,235 US dollars/ton, a 1.82% week - on - week decrease. The electrolytic nickel import profit and loss decreased by 69.9 yuan/ton to - 476.27 yuan/ton, and the electrolytic nickel export profit and loss increased by 265.28 US dollars/ton to - 1,178.88 US dollars/ton [21]. 3.2 Raw Materials - Nickel Ore - **Price**: As of February 9, the CIF prices of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% Philippine laterite nickel ore were 30, 64.5, and 78.5 US dollars/wet ton respectively, with week - on - week changes of +0, +5, +0. The ex - factory prices of Indonesian Ni1.2% and Ni1.6% domestic trade nickel ore were 22 and 60.9 US dollars/wet ton respectively, with week - on - week increases of +0.5 and +5.9 [34]. - **Supply**: The Philippine nickel ore output is usually at a very low level at the beginning of the year. The Surigao and Homonhon mining areas are in the rainy - season peak, while Palawan and Zambales are in the dry season and are the main sources of export supply. Some Indonesian mining areas are still affected by rainfall, and the production and circulation efficiency is low. The supply - side increment is limited due to the RKAB quota reduction expectation and the review of the forestry working group [34][4]. - **Inventory**: As of February 6, the nickel ore port inventory decreased by 230,000 tons to 6.83 million wet tons, a 3.26% week - on - week decrease [37]. 3.3 Intermediate Products - **Production**: As of January 2026, the Indonesian MHP production increased by 0.3 to 42,000 nickel tons, a 7.69% month - on - month increase; the Indonesian ice - nickel metal production in January 2026 was 41,500 tons, a 4.06% month - on - month increase and a 31.05% year - on - year increase [42]. - **Price**: As of February 9, the MHP FOB price decreased by 1,234 US dollars/ton to 14,870 US dollars/ton, a 7.66% week - on - week decrease; the high - grade nickel matte FOB price decreased by 1,270 US dollars/ton to 15,362 US dollars/ton, a 7.64% week - on - week decrease [42]. 3.4 Refined Nickel - **Production**: As of January 2026, China's electrolytic nickel monthly production increased by 6,300 tons to 37,700 tons, a 20.06% month - on - month increase and a 25.54% year - on - year increase [46]. - **Inventory**: As of February 6, the SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased by 4,398 tons to 51,300 tons, a 9.38% week - on - week increase; the LME nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 1,002 tons to 285,300 tons, a 0.35% week - on - week decrease. The pure nickel social inventory increased by 2,582 tons to 73,200 tons, a 3.65% week - on - week increase [51]. 3.5 Nickel Sulfate - **Production**: As of January 2026, China's nickel sulfate monthly production decreased by 1,414 tons to 33,600 nickel tons, a 4.04% month - on - month decrease [63]. - **Demand**: Before the Spring Festival, the downstream precursor and battery factory stocking was basically completed, with only rigid - demand restocking. The high - nickel ternary production scheduling slowed down seasonally, and the trading was light [63]. 3.6 Ferronickel - **Production**: As of January 2026, the national ferronickel production (metal content) increased by 2,000 tons to 23,200 tons, a 9.47% month - on - month increase; the Indonesian ferronickel production decreased by 9,200 tons to 132,100 nickel tons, a 6.51% month - on - month decrease [73]. - **Cost**: Last week, the ferronickel cost pressure intensified, and the profit space significantly narrowed. The high cost was difficult to be passed on to the downstream due to weak demand [75]. 3.7 Stainless Steel - **Production**: As of January 2026, China's stainless - steel crude - steel production increased by 165,500 tons to 3.426 million tons, a 5.08% month - on - month increase and a 24.83% year - on - year increase. It is expected that the production scheduling in February 2026 will be 2.651 million tons, a 22.62% month - on - month decrease and a 12.49% year - on - year decrease [82]. - **Inventory**: As of February 6, the stainless - steel social inventory increased by 12,300 tons to 964,900 tons, a 1.29% week - on - week increase. The stainless - steel warehouse receipt quantity increased by 9,705 tons to 53,500 tons, a 22.18% week - on - week increase [85]. - **Cost**: As of February 9, the production cost of Chinese 304 cold - rolled stainless steel decreased by 141 yuan/ton to 13,696 yuan/ton, a 1.02% week - on - week decrease [88].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PTA: Core view - neutral; Month - spread - neutral; Spot - neutral; Cost - neutral; Device change - cautiously bullish; Downstream demand - neutral; Supply - demand balance - cautiously bearish; Processing profit - cautiously bearish [5] - PX: Core view - neutral; Month - spread - neutral; Spot - neutral; Device change - neutral; Import - cautiously bearish; Downstream demand - neutral; Supply - demand balance - neutral; Processing profit - neutral [6] - Ethylene glycol: Core view - neutral; Month - spread - neutral; Spot - neutral; Device change - cautiously bearish; Import - cautiously bullish; Downstream demand - neutral; Supply - demand balance - cautiously bearish; Processing profit - neutral [7] 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA:节前检修兑现，需求加速降负，产业链略压缩，现实端一般但预期尚可，节前关注成本地缘和资金影响，轻仓过节，节后关注需求复工进度 [5] - PX:供应维持高位，需求变化不大，近端浮动价偏弱，PXN略回落，现实一般但预期尚可，节前关注资金节奏 [6] - Ethylene glycol:节前负荷高位，合成气有检修，进口略有改善，需求进入节前放假模式，1 - 2月现实端季节性累库，现实一般但预期节后有改善，节前关注宏观情绪 [7] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weaving Industry - Weaving enters the pre - holiday shutdown mode. As of February 5, the operating rates of texturing, weaving, and dyeing dropped to 17% (-36%), 9% (-25%), and 45% (-24%) respectively. Pre - holiday inventory is for 15 - 20 days, which is not high [10] 3.2 Polyester Industry - As of February 6, polyester load is around 78.2% (-6%), cash flow is repaired, and average inventory stabilizes at around 14.6 days. Polyester devices are undergoing pre - holiday maintenance, and the operating rate is slightly decreasing. Polyester benefits are improving, and pre - holiday inventory pressure is not large [15] - Current polyester inventory is slightly rising. As of February 6, the inventories of POY, DTY, FDY, and staple fiber are 12.7, 24.9, 16.9, and 8.9 days respectively [16] - Raw material prices are回调, and polyester cash - flow profit is slightly repaired [19] - In the future, polyester factories will carry out pre - holiday maintenance, and the operating rate may decline seasonally. As of February 6, the polyester load is 78.2%, and the estimated loads for January - February are 88% and 80% (-2%) [31] 3.3 PTA Industry - PTA device changes are small. Before the holiday, New Materials and Ineos are under maintenance as planned, Dushan Energy plans to conduct maintenance on February 10, Sichuan Energy Investment restarts, and three YS devices are under maintenance. There are maintenance plans for two HL devices in March [43] - As of February 6, with the accelerated decline of polyester load, PTA social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) increases to 232.57 tons, a rise of 14 tons. Inventories in PTA and polyester factories are rising [44] - PTA supply changes little, demand is seasonally decreasing, the PTA industrial chain valuation is slightly compressed. Before the holiday, pay attention to macro and capital influences and hold light positions. In terms of supply, device maintenance is as mentioned above. In terms of demand, on February 5, polyester load dropped to 79.3% (-4.9%), and the estimated loads for January - February are 88% and 80% (-2%). Downstream operating rates are further weakening. The PTA balance shows that there is a slight inventory build - up in January - February, and the processing fee is around 400, not low. Short - term attention should be paid to geopolitical and capital drivers [59] 3.4 PX Industry - US gasoline inventory is rising, and gasoline crack spread is stable [73] - Asian disproportionation and short - process benefits are strong but have slightly declined recently [76] - The aromatics price spread between the US and Asia is slightly widening. The toluene price spread between the US and Asia is $101.1, and the xylene price spread is $90. In December 2025, South Korea's aromatic exports to the US increased, and in January 2026, the exports were 4.1 tons, a month - on - month decline [85] - PX device status: domestic PX load is 89.2%, and Asian load is 81.6%, both at a high level. Domestic load changes little, and Sinochem Quanzhou plans to restart. Some Asian devices are slightly increasing their loads. The overall Asian load remains high due to improved benefits [86] - PX supply remains high, demand changes little, the near - end floating price is weak, PXN has slightly declined, the current situation is average but the expectation is good. Before the holiday, pay attention to capital rhythm. The device load is high. Domestically, Zhejiang Petrochemical restarts after maintenance, Sinochem Quanzhou plans to restart, and some factories slightly reduce their loads. In Asia, some devices adjust their loads. In terms of balance, Asian supply is at a high load, PX has a loose balance and a small inventory build - up from January to March, and PXN is around 290, with the valuation compressed. Pay attention to capital changes [92] - The price spread between the PX outer and inner markets is widening, the PX 3 - 5 month spread is weakly stable, and the TA05 processing fee drops to around 400 [93] - The PTA - Brent oil industrial chain profit slightly declines but is still not low. PXN is around $290, PTA processing fee is 400 yuan, and the disk processing fee is slightly compressed. The overall valuation is not low. Short - term attention should be paid to the macro - market situation [96] 3.5 Ethylene Glycol (EG) Industry - As of January 30, the overall EG load is high, with the total load at 76% and the coal - based load at 76.7% [101] - EG device status: Zhongke Refining and Chemical restarts, Sinochem Quanzhou has a difficult restart, CNOOC Shell may stop production, Satellite Petrochemical plans to switch production in February, Shenghong is under maintenance, Gulei has a maintenance plan in March, and BASF is operating at 90% load. For syngas - based production, some factories are under maintenance, and Shaanxi Coal has a rotation maintenance plan in March. Near - end supply is not low, and maintenance is expected to increase [106] - EG price has dropped from a high level, costs are strong, and benefits are compressed [107] - Overseas maintenance plans are increasing. Some devices in Taiwan, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, and the US have maintenance or restart - delay plans. The near - end arrivals from January to February are still not low, but the arrivals are expected to decline from February to March [121] - As of February 2, the inventory in East China's main ports is about 93.5 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.8 tons. The overall inventory is moderately high. The expected arrivals from February 2 - 8 are around 12.3 tons, and the actual arrivals are 11 tons. The expected arrivals from February 9 - 23 are 18.1 tons. During the holiday, the arrival expectation is not high, and there is still inventory build - up pressure at the port as downstream industries shut down. Polyester factories' ethylene glycol raw material inventory days are 17.8 days (+1.8), and downstream inventory is increasing [128] - In terms of balance, supply is at a high level, imports are slightly improving, demand is seasonally entering the holiday shutdown mode. The current situation is average, but the expectation is good after the holiday. Before the holiday, pay attention to macro - sentiment [130]

生生生 生生生生生生生生生生生生生 生生生生 2 0 2 6 . 0 2 . 0 6 作者：姜振飞 联系方式： jiangzhenfei@zjtfqh.com 审核：李文涛 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 交易咨询证号：Z0015640 观点小结 生猪 定性 解析 从业资格证号：F03143941 交易咨询证号：Z0022201 临近春节终端备货接近尾声，屠宰企业开工率接近年度高点，下周上半周北方小年过后，家庭备货也 将基本结束，屠宰企业将陆续停工，现货价格也将逐步停止报价，因春节后是需求淡季，市场对春节后现货 价格预期较为悲观，因此养殖端在春节前出栏较为积极，从规模化样本企业小幅超额完成1月出栏计划以及 牧原将出栏体重降至120公斤以下，加上标肥价差持续走扩，肥猪出现相对偏紧的情况来看，春节前养殖端 出栏是积极的，这也降低节后的出栏压力。 核心观点 底部区间震荡 从上市企业业绩公告来看，2025年半数上市企业都是亏损的，结合期货价格以及现在的养殖成本来看， 2026年上半年实现盈利将比较困难，因此在预期2026年较为悲观的情况下，上半年养殖端压栏以及二育将较 为谨慎，持续的亏损也将促使一些低效能的企业 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Views Manganese Silicon - The overall view is bearish. The weekly price fluctuated sharply and returned to the level at the beginning of the week. The weekly production of silicon - manganese decreased, demand declined slightly, and the oversupply situation was difficult to improve. The cost of downstream factories' pre - holiday stockpiling was completed, but the ore price remained firm. After the Spring Festival, there was still an upward expectation for manganese ore spot due to the increase in foreign - market costs. The coking coal and coke market fluctuated violently, and the first round of coke price increase was implemented [3]. Ferrosilicon - The overall view is neutral. The weekly price fluctuated sharply and returned to the beginning - of - week level. Before the Spring Festival, the market price was expected to remain stable with limited adjustment. Currently, the supply - demand situation of 75 ferrosilicon was better than that of 72. The production of ferrosilicon decreased slightly, the demand from steel mills declined, the production of magnesium metal continued to rise, and the inventory decreased slightly month - on - month. The price difference between 75 and 72 ferrosilicon continued to widen to a high level. The price of semi - coke remained stable, and attention should be paid to the progress of differential electricity prices in Shaanxi [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Manganese Ore - **Inventory**: The total port inventory of manganese ore was 4.357 million tons, showing a slight continuous increase week - on - week. Tianjin Port's inventory increased slightly to 3.325 million tons, still lower than the same period last year; Qinzhou Port's inventory decreased slightly to 1.027 million tons, significantly higher than the same period last year [14]. - **Inventory by Variety**: In Tianjin Port, the inventory of South African ore was 2.173 million tons, showing a slight increase week - on - week; the inventory of Gabon ore was 0.194 million tons, showing a slight decrease week - on - week and much lower than the same period last year; the inventory of Australian ore was 0.528 million tons, continuing to increase and higher than the same period last year [18]. - **Port Price**: The price of Gabon lumps at Tianjin Port was 42.8 yuan/ton - degree, Australian lumps were 41.5 yuan/ton - degree, and South African semi - carbonate was 36.3 yuan/ton - degree. Traders' willingness to offer discounts before the Spring Festival decreased, and some quotes increased by about 0.5 yuan/ton - degree. As the holiday approached, market merchants gradually closed for the holiday [22]. Manganese Silicon - **Production**: As of February 6, the weekly production of silicon - manganese decreased to 191,000 tons. The daily average production in Inner Mongolia increased slightly to 14,340 tons/day; that in Ningxia decreased to 5,935 tons/day; that in Yunnan remained stable at 640 tons/day; that in Guizhou decreased to 1,680 tons/day; and that in Guangxi decreased to 1,630 tons/day [32]. - **Demand**: As of February 6, the weekly demand of Mysteel sample enterprises was 116,100 tons, and the weekly production of the five major steel products decreased to 8.199 million tons. The proportion of rebar in the five major steel products in Mysteel sample data decreased slightly week - on - week [37]. - **Price**: The price in the Inner Mongolia market was around 5,650 yuan/ton, and that in Tianjin was 5,750 yuan/ton. The tender price of HBIS was 5,920 yuan/ton [50]. - **Chemical Coke Price**: The price of chemical coke remained stable this week. As of February 5, the ex - factory prices of 25 - 40mm chemical coke in Yinchuan, Ordos, and Alxa were 1,190, 1,140, and 1,140 yuan/ton respectively [53]. - **Production Profit**: The immediate profit of silicon - manganese was low, and the loss of point - to - point profit narrowed slightly [57]. - **Month - to - Month Spread**: As of February 5, the 5 - 9 month - to - month spread of manganese silicon was - 48 yuan/ton, continuing to fluctuate at a low level [62]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The futures price fluctuated, and the basis strengthened slightly. As of February 5, the total of manganese silicon warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 207,800 tons [65]. Ferrosilicon - **Production**: As of February 6, the weekly production was 99,200 tons, showing a slight increase week - on - week. The daily average production in Inner Mongolia was 5,165 tons, in Qinghai was 1,310 tons, in Ningxia was 3,760 tons, and in Shaanxi was 2,680 tons [76]. - **Demand**: - **Steel Mills**: The total consumption of ferrosilicon by Mysteel sample steel mills was 18,500 tons, higher than the same period last year [81]. - **Magnesium Metal**: The export price of magnesium metal at Tianjin Port was 2,440 US dollars/ton; the market price was 16,450 yuan/ton, showing a slight decrease week - on - week. The weekly production of magnesium metal was 20,671 tons, continuing to increase slightly. The magnesium metal market showed a weak pattern, and the market price of magnesium ingots still decreased slightly; the purchasing sentiment of end - user factories and traders was low, and even for small - quantity restocking orders, the inquiry prices continued to decline [88]. - **Export**: As of February 5, the overseas FOB price of 75 ferrosilicon was 1,115 US dollars/ton, and that of 72 ferrosilicon was 1,055 US dollars/ton, remaining stable week - on - week. In December, the import volume of ferrosilicon decreased slightly month - on - month, and the export volume increased month - on - month [97]. - **Raw Material Situation**: As of February 6, the quoted prices of semi - coke small materials in the mainstream regions remained stable. The current prices were 755 yuan/ton in Shaanxi, 805 yuan/ton in Ningxia, and 745 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia. The price of iron oxide scale was 750 yuan/ton [106]. - **Production Profit**: As of February 6, the loss of point - to - point profit of ferrosilicon expanded slightly. The production profits in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shaanxi, and Qinghai were - 70, - 81, - 265, and - 599 yuan/ton respectively [120]. - **Month - to - Month Spread**: As of February 5, the 5 - 9 month - to - month spread of ferrosilicon was - 62 yuan/ton, showing a slight weakening week - on - week [122]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The futures price fluctuated, and the basis of ferrosilicon fluctuated slightly. As of February 5, the total of ferrosilicon warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 42,300 tons [125]. Balance Sheet - **Manganese Silicon**: From July 2025 to June 2026, the total supply and demand showed different trends. There were periods of oversupply and tight supply. The year - on - year cumulative growth rate of production and consumption also changed over time [128]. - **Ferrosilicon**: From July 2025 to June 2026, the total supply and demand also showed different trends, with periods of oversupply and tight supply. The year - on - year cumulative growth rate of production and consumption also changed over time [129].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The sharp decline in zinc prices this week was due to the cross - variety liquidity shock caused by the weakening of precious metals and the fundamental risks previously highlighted. The demand support in the zinc market in the first quarter is not strong, and there is an overvaluation risk when zinc prices are above 25,000 yuan/ton [3]. - From the perspective of fundamentals and market sentiment, zinc prices may continue to decline weakly before the Spring Festival, but the current price drop may help build momentum for the peak season market after the festival [3]. - In terms of fundamentals, short - term zinc supply continues to be marginally loose. The arrival volume of domestic zinc ore in January was high, and port inventories reached a three - month high. Some domestic smelters have sufficient raw material inventories, and the planned zinc ingot production in February is expected to decrease by 52,000 - 57,000 tons month - on - month [3]. - On the downstream side, the decline in prices has marginally improved the willingness to purchase, but the procurement intensity of leading enterprises has not met market expectations. Downstream enterprises have entered the seasonal shutdown cycle for the Spring Festival, and the weighted operating rate has returned to the historical seasonal level. It is predicted that the peak inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival will be about 210,000 tons, and the inventory will start to decline rapidly in late March [3]. - In terms of price, the current profit margin of smelters provides cost support at around 23,000 yuan/ton [3]. - In terms of the internal - external price ratio, it is expected that the structure of weak domestic and strong external markets will continue in the first quarter. The uncertainty of European natural gas prices has postponed the expectation of overseas smelter复产, and some mines have lowered their production plans in Q4 2025, which provides continuous support for the external market. There is also a possibility that the zinc ingot export window may open again [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Views - The decline in zinc prices was due to precious metal weakness and fundamental risks. Before the Spring Festival, zinc prices may continue to decline, but it may benefit the post - festival market. The short - term supply is loose, and downstream demand is affected by the Spring Festival shutdown. The expected peak inventory during the Spring Festival is about 210,000 tons, and the inventory will start to decline in late March. The cost support is around 23,000 yuan/ton, and the internal - external price ratio may maintain a weak domestic and strong external structure [3]. 3.2 Historical Spring Festival Data - The relationship between inventory reduction time and zinc price trends is not significant, and it mainly depends on long - term supply - demand logic. Zinc prices mostly decline during the Spring Festival. Historically, the first quarter is often at a relatively high price level, and the sharp decline in pre - festival zinc prices this year may improve downstream purchasing willingness and increase the probability of rapid post - festival inventory reduction [4]. 3.3 Monthly Balance Sheet - It is estimated that the zinc ingot production in January 2026 will be about 532,000 tons, and there will be a small - scale maintenance in February, with a planned month - on - month decrease of 52,000 tons. In terms of imports and exports, the zinc ingot export volume increased significantly in November and December 2025. In 2026, a low import volume is expected. It is predicted that the peak inventory of domestic zinc ingot social inventory during the Spring Festival will reach 210,000 tons, and the inventory will start to decline rapidly from March to April [5]. 3.4 Main Industry News - Antamina's 2026 production guidance was further reduced by 70,000 metal tons. MMG's zinc ore production in Q4 2025 increased by 2% year - on - year. Glencore's 2025 zinc production increased by 7% year - on - year, and its 2026 production guidance is 700,000 - 740,000 tons. Xinjiang Huoshaoyun Lead - Zinc Mine announced a public tender for the sale of 50,000 tons of lead - zinc ore [7]. 3.5 Zinc Concentrate Production and Processing Fees - In December 2025, domestic zinc concentrate production was 287,800 metal tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.58% and a year - on - year increase of 5.85%. The cumulative production from January to December was 3.657 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 1.21%. The production in January 2026 is expected to be 292,600 tons. The domestic zinc concentrate TC has stopped falling and stabilized since late December, with an average of 1,500 yuan/metal ton this week. The import zinc concentrate processing fee index is 25.5 US dollars/dry ton, a week - on - week decrease of 4.25 US dollars/dry ton, and the import profit of zinc ore has dropped to a small loss [10]. 3.6 Zinc Concentrate Import - In December 2025, the import volume of zinc ore and concentrates was 462,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.87% and a year - on - year increase of 1.15%. The cumulative import volume from January to December was 5.3305 million physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 30.1%. The main import sources are Peru, Australia, and South Africa. Due to the arrival cycle, the import volume in December decreased, but it is expected to increase significantly in January. As of February 4, 2026, the import profit and loss of zinc concentrate was - 64 yuan/ton, and the zinc ore import window has been closed since January 26 [14]. 3.7 Zinc Concentrate Port Inventory - As of January 29, the weekly inventory of seven major ports was 377,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 81,000 tons, reaching a three - month high. The arrival volume of zinc concentrate decreased significantly in December, but it increased again in early January after the import window opened in late December [18]. 3.8 Zinc Smelter Production - In January 2026, SMM's refined zinc production in China increased by 8,500 tons month - on - month to 560,600 tons, slightly lower than the initial expectation. The raw material inventory days of domestic smelters in January increased by 1.4 days to 23.7 days. Although the processing fee has only stopped falling and remains at a low level since December, the significant increase in zinc prices in January has repaired the smelter's profit. It is expected that the domestic zinc ingot production in February will decrease by 52,000 - 57,000 tons month - on - month, and the production level is basically the same as that in January after excluding the difference in the number of days in the month. The actual demand will be the key to maintaining the smelter's profit, which needs to be verified during the post - Spring Festival peak season [24]. 3.9 Refined Zinc Import - In December 2025, China imported 8,700 tons of refined zinc and exported 27,200 tons, with a net export of 18,500 tons. The main import countries are Kazakhstan and Iran, and the main export destinations are Taiwan, China, Singapore, and Hong Kong. The domestic zinc ingot spot export window has been closed since mid - December, and the import loss has expanded as of February 5. It is expected that the pattern of tight external and loose internal markets will continue in the first half of 2026, and there is a possibility that the zinc ingot export window may open again [27]. 3.10 Downstream Zinc Processing - The weighted operating rate of domestic zinc downstream primary processing enterprises this week was 39.52%, a week - on - week decrease of 7.16 percentage points, returning to the historical seasonal level. The average holiday days of downstream enterprises are 22 days, an increase of 1 day year - on - year. All enterprises will resume work from late February to early March [29]. - The operating rate of galvanizing enterprises on February 5 was 38.6%, a week - on - week decrease of 7.59 percentage points. The raw material inventory increased slightly, and the finished product inventory decreased. The average holiday days of 34 galvanizing sample enterprises are 20 days, an increase of 1 day year - on - year, and they will resume production from late February to early March [31]. - The operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises on February 5 was 42.42%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.95 percentage points. The raw material inventory decreased, and the finished product inventory increased. The average holiday days of 20 die - casting zinc alloy sample enterprises are 23.1 days, an increase of 1.1 days year - on - year, and they will resume work around the eighth day of the first lunar month or the Lantern Festival [39]. - The operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises on February 5 was 50.37%, a week - on - week decrease of 8.15 percentage points. The raw material inventory decreased to the historical low level, and the finished product inventory increased to the historical high level. The industry shows obvious differentiation in holiday arrangements, and the downstream orders also show structural differences [45]. 3.11 Domestic Inventory - As of January 30, the total inventory of refined zinc in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 65,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7,997 tons. As of February 5, the SMM seven - region zinc ingot social inventory was 133,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,700 tons. It is expected that the domestic market will enter the seasonal inventory accumulation period during the Spring Festival, with a peak inventory of about 210,000 tons, and the inventory will start to decline in late March [52]. 3.12 LME Inventory - LME inventory has been increasing in Singapore, Hong Kong, and Kaohsiung warehouses since late October. It reached a recent peak of 112,300 tons on January 19 and then continued to decline slightly. As of February 5, the LME inventory was 107,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,950 tons. The LME cancellation warrant ratio rose to a three - month high, with 13,275 tons of cancelled warrants. The global visible inventory this week was 234,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9,200 tons, showing a seasonal inventory accumulation trend [55]. 3.13 Structure & Arbitrage - Since late January, the domestic spot price has been at a slight discount to the Shanghai zinc main contract. On Thursday this week, the average price in Shanghai was at a discount of 30 yuan/ton to the main 2603 contract, a narrowing of 25 yuan/ton compared with last week. The Contango structure of Shanghai zinc has significantly converged. It is recommended to pay attention to the 4 - 7 inter - period positive arbitrage opportunity [59]. - The outer market has returned to the Contango structure since mid - December. As of February 5, the LME zinc 0 - 3 spread was at a discount of 20.75 US dollars/ton, and the discount range is narrowing. In the case of continuous inventory reduction overseas, the LME market shows an abnormal convex structure, and a positive arbitrage strategy can be considered [62]. - The CashReport and WarrantBandingReport show that the market concentration has increased slightly recently, and there is one position with a 30 - 39% warrant holding [63].