作者：王琪瑶 期货从业证号：F03090212 交易咨询证号：Z0016781 联系方式：wangqiyao@zjtfqh.com 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 审核：肖兰兰 联系人：魏悦 交易咨询证号：Z0013951 从业资格证号：F03147756 联系方式：weiyue@zjtfqh.com ◼ 2035年，纯电动汽车成 为新销售车辆的主流。 ◼ 2025年新能源汽车新车 销售量达到汽车新车销 售总量的20%。 ◼ 新能源乘用车和商用车 产销迅速提升，新能源 乘用车占比从8%扩大至 18%，提升轮胎配套需求。 | 天然橡胶 | 定性 | 解析 | | --- | --- | --- | | 核心观点 | 短期： NR中性 | ————————————————————盘面———————————————————— ———————————————————基本面———————————————————— | | | RU中性偏多 | 截止8月5日，RU、NR下跌；RU-NR价差先缩后扩；RU09-01、NR连一-连二、连二-连三月差走扩。 | | | | RU:现货报盘跟随盘面重心向下调整，价格高位回落 ...

作者：李文涛 从业资格证号：F3050524 交易咨询证号：Z0015640 联系方式：18616861246 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 审核：肖兰兰 研究助理：尹艺瑾 从业资格证号：F03125275 联系方式：13752670838 交易咨询证号：Z0013951 | | | 本周盘面拉涨后震荡盘整。供给端，硅锰周度产量上行至19.58万吨。需求端，五大钢材周产环比上行至 869.21万吨，螺纹占比略有上升，铁水产量小幅回落至240.71万吨。锰硅仓单和有效预报合计38.7万吨，整体 | | --- | --- | --- | | 核心观点 | 中性 | 仍保持下降趋势。成本端，海外矿山报价持续小幅上涨，略低于当前港口现货价格，港口锰矿价格跟随盘面小 | | | | 幅回落，化工焦跟随焦炭连续上涨，整体成本上行。 | | 月差 | 中性 | 截止8月7日，锰硅9-1月差-96元/吨，环比下行明显。 | | 现货 | 偏空 | 现货市场成交一般，报价跟随盘面波动，内蒙市场价格在5820元/吨附近，天津地区5950元/吨。河钢招标首询 | | | | 价6000元/吨。 | | 钢材产量 | 偏多 ...

观点小结 主题 观点小结-高硫燃料油 | 高硫燃料油 | 定性 | 解析 | | --- | --- | --- | | 核心观点 | 中性 | OPEC+预期增产约55万桶/日，雪佛兰重获委内瑞拉生产石油许可证，委内瑞拉原油物流前往亚洲减少. 目前亚洲高硫供应充足且累库，富察伊拉船燃加注量环比走弱,随着美国对俄罗斯设定的达成协议截 至目期临近，高硫价格相对受支撑。关注近期高硫现货采购和消化情况、关税制裁和原油配额的情况, | | 裂差 | 中性 | 关税制裁影响下美俄谈判期限临近，俄油出口受阻,供应风险溢价上升,高硫裂差处于高位,较上周 走強。 | | 价差 | 中性偏容。 | 国际原油价格走低拖累燃料油价格。 | | 供应 | 中性 | 全球总发货量预期宽松，新加坡到港偏高 | | 需求 | 中性 | 发电需求在8月达到高峰后转弱。 | | 库存 | 偏容 | 新加坡和舟山港显著累库 | | 风险 | | 地缘冲突、宏观扰动、关税制裁 | 观点小结-低硫燃料油 2 0 2 5 / 8 / 8 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 作者：肖兰兰 从业资格证号：F3042977 交易咨询证号：Z0013951 ...

2 0 2 5 / 8 / 8 作者：刘诗瑶 联系人：田洲恺 从业资格证号：F3041949 从业资格证号：F03134743 审核：肖兰兰 交易咨询证号：Z0013951 交易咨询证号：Z0019385 邮箱：tianzhoukai@zjtfqh.com 联系方式：liushiyao@zjtfqh.com 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 | 铅 | 定性 | 解析 | | --- | --- | --- | | | ◆ | 整体来看，原再生铅企亏损走扩，但减复产情况不多，供应边际变化较少；需求侧，旺季表现不明显，经销商库存高企， 去库情况欠佳。 | | 核心观点 | 震荡偏多 ◆ | 近期的边际变量来自于安徽地区发布排查污水，当地个别再生炼厂小幅减产，原/再生炼厂整体生产正常，供应增量无显 著变化。 | | | ◆ | 精矿和废电瓶的成本刚性支撑铅价底部，铅价偏强震荡为主，月差/比值驱动不强。 | | 加工费 | 偏多 | 本周铅精矿加工费全国平均价格435元/金属吨，环比下降55元/吨。 | | 废料供应 | 中性 | 废电瓶稳价为主，整体价格变化空间有限。 | | 原生铅冶炼利润 | 偏多 | 原 ...

作者：王谦 从业资格证号： F03123709 交易咨询证号： Z0019934 审核：肖兰兰 研究联系方式：wangqian@zjtfqh.com 交易咨询证号：Z0013951 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 近期宏观转冷+OPEC增产影响，盘面阶段性承压，当前价格水平中性评估，以波动率策略为主。 宏观方面，上周五非农数据公布，不仅7月数据超预期下滑，前两个月的就业数据也双双下修。受此影响，宏观情绪急剧 转冷，风险资产均不同程度承压。与此同时，衰退担忧又起，市场同时推高了年内降息的预期，当前市场评估来看，9月 降息25个BP的概率高达90%，10月和12月依旧有降息倾向。就当前的联储货币政策而言，当下仍有空间，宏观方面也有托 底的倾向。 另外特朗普威胁对俄制裁，就当前市场声明来看，印度方面并未有明显的停止采购俄油的倾向，关注后续的事件演绎情况。 就近期原油而言，仍然以交易基本面为主，当前OPEC出口边际下滑较为明显，美国方面炼厂开工再创新高，基本面方面也 出现区域分化，整体而言并未出现明显转弱的趋势，OPEC9月的增产主要被亚洲玩家所承接，关注后续中印的采买动向， 但根据部分机构评估，中国方面的采购 ...

作者：汤剑林 从业资格证号：F03117796 交易咨询证号：Z0019347 研究联系方式：tangjianlin@zjtfqh.com 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 审核：肖兰兰 交易咨询证号：Z0013951 | 核心观点 | 中性 | 供应方面: 本周暂无新增检修装置，甘肃华亭、榆林凯越、西来峰、陕西兴化、新疆广汇、山西永鑫、青海 中浩、陕西黄陵、山西万鑫达、内蒙古博源、大土河等装置仍在检修中，当前国内装置检修仍较多。伊朗 多 套装置负荷不高，两套装置停车，伊朗夏季用电高峰导致天然气紧张，或导致甲醇生产受影响。需求方面： | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 传统需求变动不大，甲醛、二甲醚开工率小幅回升，MTBE和醋酸开工率回落，周内内地成交较好，内地某大 厂继续外采且近期内地检修偏多，短期预计内地偏紧；烯烃需求方面，蒙大MTO装置重启，中原大化20万吨 | | | | MTO装置检修计划8月中旬重启，上周兴兴MTO装置停车检修重启待定，诚志MTO装置负荷不高，其他装置变动 不大。短期甲醇现实偏弱，但预期受宏观以及需求增量预期影响偏强，导致近期月差持续走低，短期仍是反 | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel market's fundamentals weakened marginally last week. With the LME nickel inventory increasing by 2.47% to 209,100 tons, the real - world demand is not optimistic. If there are no new disruptions on the supply side in the short term, nickel prices may fluctuate around the cost line [3][4]. - The stainless - steel social inventory has decreased for three consecutive weeks, and the fundamentals have improved marginally. However, this is mainly due to the settlement and pick - up of previous futures contracts, and the subsequent inventory reduction speed may slow down. The scheduled stainless - steel production for August has increased month - on - month, and the short - term supply remains high, with prices likely to fluctuate within a certain range [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel - **Price and Inventory**: - The spot price of electrolytic nickel as of August 4 decreased by 1,950 yuan/ton to 121,250 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.58%. The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 1,750 yuan/ton to 122,500 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.41%, and its premium increased by 200 to 2,350 yuan/ton. The price of imported nickel decreased by 2,000 yuan/ton to 120,500 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.63%, and its premium decreased by 50 to 350 yuan/ton [16]. - The LME nickel price as of August 4 decreased by 125 dollars/ton to 15,105 dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.82%. The LME nickel 0 - 3 spot premium increased by 7.72 dollars/ton to - 200.74 dollars/ton [21]. - The SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 783 tons to 21,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.57%. The LME nickel warehouse receipts increased by 5,000 tons to 209,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.47%. The pure nickel social inventory (including the SHFE) decreased by 795 tons to 39,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.01%. The East China social inventory decreased by 1,094 tons to 13,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.38%, and the Shanghai Free Trade Zone inventory increased by 500 tons to 5,200 tons [46]. - **Supply**: - As of July 2025, China's electrolytic nickel monthly output increased by 0.1 million tons to 32,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.14% and a year - on - year increase of 13.69% [43]. - As of June 2025, China's refined nickel monthly export volume was 10,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 27.41% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.01%. The monthly import volume was 17,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.0% and a year - on - year increase of 132.29%. From January to June 2025, China's cumulative refined nickel export volume was 91,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 107.42%, and the cumulative import volume was 94,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 127.16% [43]. - **Cost and Profit**: - As of June 2025, the average production cost of SMM electrolytic nickel decreased by 948 dollars/ton to 13,025 dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6.78% [51]. - As of June 2025, the production cost of electrowon nickel from integrated MHP and high - grade nickel matte increased by 1,066 and decreased by 3,629 yuan/ton respectively to 121,953 yuan/ton and 129,163 yuan/ton. The profit margins increased by 0.2 and 3.5 percentage points respectively to - 1.4% and - 6.9% [51]. Sulfuric Acid Nickel - **Production and Demand**: - As of July 2025, China's sulfuric acid nickel monthly output increased by 0.43 million tons to 29,100 nickel tons, a month - on - month increase of 17.3%. Recently, some precursor factories have restocking needs, and their price acceptance has also increased, leading to a recovery in the supply of sulfuric acid nickel [58]. - As of June 2025, China's sulfuric acid nickel monthly import volume was 13,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 27.35% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.01%. The monthly export volume was 782.1 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.66% and a year - on - year decrease of 41.02% [58]. - **Profit Margin**: As of August 4, the profit margins of producing sulfuric acid nickel from MHP, nickel beans, high - grade nickel matte, and yellow slag increased by 3.5, 1.6, 3.9, and 1.5 respectively to 1.5%, - 1.7%, 5.6%, and - 2% [63]. Ferronickel - **Production**: - As of July 2025, the national nickel pig iron production (metal content) decreased by 0.11 million tons to 24,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.59%. In Indonesia, the nickel pig iron production decreased by 0.24 million tons to 134,400 nickel tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.73% [70]. - Many domestic ferronickel enterprises are operating at reduced loads or are shut down for maintenance [70]. - **Inventory and Profit**: - As of July 31, the national main - region nickel pig iron inventory (metal tons) increased by 182 tons to 33,400 nickel tons (average grade 11.72%), a month - on - month increase of 0.55% [77]. - As of August 4, the cash production cost of RKEF in Fujian remained flat at 1,031 yuan/nickel point, and the production profit margin remained flat at - 11.25% [77]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Market Performance**: - Last week, the stainless - steel main contract ss2509 opened at 13,045 yuan/ton, closed at 12,840 yuan/ton, with a weekly high of 13,130 yuan/ton and a low of 12,760 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 1.46% [81]. - As of August 4, the 304/2B coil - rough edge Wuxi quotation increased by 100 to 13,000 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.78% [81]. - **Inventory and Production**: - As of August 1, the stainless - steel social inventory decreased by 0.74 million tons to 1,111,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.66%. The 300 - series inventory increased by 0.67 million tons to 676,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.0%. The stainless - steel inventory has decreased for three consecutive weeks, and the inventory reduction speed has slowed down this week [84]. - As of July 2025, the national stainless - steel crude steel production decreased by 6.14 million tons to 3,230,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.87%. The 300 - series production decreased by 3.58 million tons to 1,708,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.05% [87]. - **Cost and Profit**: - As of August 1, the cash cost of 304 cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in China decreased by 18 yuan/ton to 13,058 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.14%. The profit margin of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils increased by 0.88 percentage points to - 3.54% [92]. - The high - nickel pig iron price was weakly stable last week, and the chromium - iron price remained stable, so the stainless - steel cost support still exists [92].

尿素周报2025/8/1 需求暂弱，等待支撑 作者：康健 从业资格证号：F03088041 交易咨询证号：Z0019583 研究联系方式：kangjian@zjtfqh.com 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 审核：肖兰兰 交易咨询证号：Z0013951 观点小结 | 尿素 | 定性 | 解析 | | --- | --- | --- | | 核心观点 | 中性 | 供应方面，夏季检修增加，产量维持相对低位，但仍较历史同期偏高；出口利润较高，但出口额度未有进 一步消息；复合肥开工率继续提升，工业需求不温不火。综合来看，短期国内驱动不明显，内卷不如外卷， | | | | 出口政策仍有放开预期。 | | 月差 | 中性 | 可继续关注出口提振带来的月差走强机会。 | | 政策 | 中性 | 暂无进一步放开出口的消息。 | | 现货 | 中性 | 复合肥开工率缓慢提升，但企业原料库存尚可，采购需求按需推进。 | | 库存 | 中性 偏空 | 企业库存开始小幅累库，港口库存小幅降低，出口推进开始放缓。 | | 出口 | 中性 | 国际价格略有下滑，出口潜在利润仍维持绝对高位；出口政策暂时没有进一步放开的消息，前期 ...

| 镍 | 定性 | 解析 | | --- | --- | --- | | 核心观点 | 震荡 | 近期市场情绪或部分退潮，而镍在弱现实强预期博弈下，基本面与宏观逻辑可能存在反复。本周矿价环比微跌，镍成本支撑偏弱，仍需关注APNI | | | | 协会希望重新评估镍矿计价公式等印尼政策端风向引导。 | | 镍矿价格 | 偏空 | 截至7月28日，菲律宾红土镍矿0.9%、1.5%、1.8%CIF价格环比上周分别-1、-0.5、-1至29、58、79.5美元/湿吨。 | | 印尼内贸镍矿 | 偏空 | 截至7月25日，印尼Ni1.2%、Ni1.6%内贸镍矿到厂价环比上周分别-0、-0.1至25、52.1美元/湿吨。 | | 海运费 | 中性 | 上周菲律宾-天津港、菲律宾-连云港海运费环比分别持平于12.5、11.5美元/湿吨。 | | 精炼镍产量 | 偏空 | 截至2025年7月，中国电解镍月度产量环比增加0.04万吨至3.22万吨，环比+1.26%。 | | 精炼镍库存（SMM） | 偏多 | 上周纯镍社会库存（包含上期所）环比-57吨至4.03万吨，环比-0.14%。 | | 国内NPI价格 | 偏多 | ...

我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 审核：肖兰兰 作者：刘思琪 交易咨询证号：Z0013951 从业资格证号：F3083559 交易咨询证号：Z0016260 邮箱：liusiqi@zjtfqh.com 观点小结 | PTA | 定性 | 解析 | | --- | --- | --- | | 核心观点 | 中性 | PTA下游补货，需求淡季企稳,供应检修不低,7-8月维持紧平衡,PTA整体库存不高,短期受宏 | | | | 观和原油有支撑,关注低多机会。 | | 月差 | 中性 | 现货表现一般,月差偏弱震荡。 | | 现货 | 運慎偏空 | PTA现货市场商谈氛围一般,现货基差偏弱,8月货在09-10附近商谈。 | | 成本 | 運慎帰多 | 原油偏强, PX低库存, 供需紧平衡, PXN偏强维持260-270美元附近。 | | 装置变动 | 中性 | PTA装置检修中。威联化学计划8月上重启，福海创8月继续检修，8月YS海南计划技改，YS大化 | | | | 、嘉兴石化8月有检修计划。新材料受台风影响略降负。 | | 下游需求 | 中性 | 聚酯负荷88.7%,下游补货后淡季企稳。 | | 供需平衡 | ...