分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 高伊楠 张扬 SAC：S0490517060001 SAC：S0490524030004 SFC：BUW101 丨证券研究报告丨 港股研究丨公司点评丨吉利汽车（0175.HK） [Table_Title] 吉利汽车 2024 年 Q4 业绩点评：新能源规模提 升实现盈利，还原费用利润超预期 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 吉利汽车发布 2024 年四季度业绩。2024 年实现营业收 2401.9 亿元，同比+34.0%，销量 217.7 万辆，同比+32%，实现归母净利润 166.3 亿元，同比+213.3%。新平台赋能，吉利汽车开启产 品新时代。GEA 架构支撑新车周期，极氪、领克、银河全面向好。各品牌新能源转型顺利推进， 规模效应逐步凸显将带来盈利向上弹性。公司燃油车基盘稳固，联营企业创新出海模式持续打 开海外新空间。智能化战略开启，加速提升智驾能力。整车强势新周期下盈利具备较大弹性。 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 吉利汽车（0175.HK） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Ti ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Geely Automobile is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The Q4 performance of Geely Automobile met expectations, with total revenue of 72.51 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 29.7% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 20.1%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.579 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 45.4% and quarter-on-quarter growth of 45.8% [8] - The company aims to achieve a sales target of 2.71 million vehicles in 2025, with 1.5 million of those being new energy vehicles. The company is actively promoting its "Smart Geely 2025" strategy [8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4, Geely's total sales reached 687,000 units, with year-on-year growth of 30.3% and quarter-on-quarter growth of 28.6%. The average selling price for Geely and Zeekr vehicles was 121,000 yuan, showing a slight decrease [8] - The gross margin for Q4 was 17.3%, an increase of 1.0 percentage points year-on-year, driven by improved profitability from high-margin oil vehicles and enhanced profitability from new energy products [8] Earnings Forecast - The forecast for total revenue is as follows: - 2023: 179.846 billion yuan - 2024: 240.194 billion yuan (33.56% YoY) - 2025: 344.279 billion yuan (43.33% YoY) - 2026: 397.884 billion yuan (15.57% YoY) - 2027: 475.326 billion yuan (19.46% YoY) [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be: - 2023: 5.308 billion yuan - 2024: 16.632 billion yuan (213.32% YoY) - 2025: 14.153 billion yuan (-14.91% YoY) - 2026: 19.599 billion yuan (38.48% YoY) - 2027: 27.060 billion yuan (38.07% YoY) [1] Valuation Metrics - The latest diluted EPS is projected as follows: - 2023: 0.53 yuan - 2024: 1.65 yuan - 2025: 1.40 yuan - 2026: 1.95 yuan - 2027: 2.69 yuan [1] - The P/E ratios are projected as follows: - 2024: 9.48 - 2025: 11.14 - 2026: 8.05 - 2027: 5.83 [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Geely Automobile, with an updated target price of HK$21.88, corresponding to a 15x PE for 2025E [4][6]. Core Insights - Geely Automobile's total revenue for 2024 increased by 34.0% year-on-year to CNY 240.19 billion, with net profit attributable to shareholders rising by 213% to CNY 16.63 billion, aligning closely with expectations [1][4]. - The company experienced a strong performance in Q4 2024, with total revenue up 29.7% year-on-year and net profit up 45.4% year-on-year [1]. - Geely's total sales volume for 2024 rose by 32% to 2.177 million units, with new energy vehicle sales surging by 92% to 888,000 units [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, Geely's gross margin improved by 0.6 percentage points to 15.3%, with Q4 2024 gross margin reaching 17.3% [2]. - The SG&A expense ratio decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 7.6% [2]. - The report forecasts net profits of approximately CNY 13.91 billion for 2025E and CNY 16.06 billion for 2026E, with an upward revision from previous estimates [4][5]. Strategic Developments - The internal integration and smart transformation are accelerating, with the establishment of Geely Technology Group and the completion of the equity transfer of Lynk & Co to Zeekr [3]. - Geely plans to launch 10 new products and several facelifts in 2025, enhancing operational efficiency through resource synergy [3]. - The company aims to complete its "Smart Geely 2025" strategy, focusing on AI and data integration, which is expected to strengthen its competitive position in the mainstream price segment [3]. Market Position and Outlook - Geely's global strategy is progressing, with expectations for overseas sales to exceed 10% of total sales, supported by resources from Volvo and expanded KD factory layouts [3]. - The report highlights the potential for continued profit optimization driven by the launch of high-value models and internal cost reductions [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 17.55 HKD, equivalent to 16.20 CNY [2][5]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see significant growth in earnings per share (EPS), with projections of 1.43 CNY for 2024, 1.08 CNY for 2025, and 1.29 CNY for 2026. The average price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for comparable companies is maintained at 15 times [2]. - The company has upgraded its brand to "Galaxy" and launched the "Qianli Haohan" intelligent driving system, which is expected to enhance sales and market presence [6][7]. - The company aims to achieve a sales target of 1 million vehicles for the Galaxy brand in 2025, with plans to introduce five new electric models [6]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 147,965 million CNY in 2022 to 316,008 million CNY by 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 17.3% [4][8]. - Operating profit is expected to increase significantly in 2024 to 13,751 million CNY, before experiencing a decline in 2025 [4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to rise from 5,260 million CNY in 2022 to 12,948 million CNY in 2026, with a notable increase of 172.1% in 2024 [4][8]. - The gross margin is projected to stabilize around 15.6% from 2024 onwards, while the net margin is expected to improve slightly to 4.1% by 2026 [4][8]. - The company's price-to-earnings ratio is expected to decrease from 28.6 in 2022 to 11.6 by 2026, indicating a more attractive valuation over time [4][8].

Core Viewpoint - Geely Automobile reported a 32% year-on-year increase in sales despite fierce competition and a slowdown in the Chinese automotive market, with total revenue rising by 34% to RMB 240.2 billion [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The average factory sales price increased by 2.5% year-on-year, benefiting from a higher proportion of high-end products [1]. - The group's net profit for 2024 reached RMB 16.8 billion, a significant increase of 240% year-on-year [1]. - After excluding non-controlling interests, the profit attributable to equity holders of the company was RMB 16.63 billion, up 213% year-on-year [1][2]. Group 2: Sales and Market Performance - The total wholesale volume, including exports, was 2,176,567 vehicles, marking a 32% increase year-on-year and exceeding the revised annual sales target of 2 million vehicles [2]. - Wholesale volume in China grew by 27% to 1,762,045 vehicles, while export wholesale volume surged by 57% to 414,522 vehicles [2]. Group 3: Cost Control and Profitability - The overall gross margin increased by 0.6 percentage points to 15.9% due to cost control optimization from scale effects, product structure optimization, and technological improvements [1]. - The company maintained strong operating cash flow, with total cash levels increasing by 15% to RMB 43.75 billion by the end of 2024 [2].

Financial Performance - Total vehicle sales increased by 32% to 2,176,567 units in 2024, compared to 1,648,515 units in 2023[3]. - Revenue rose by 34% to RMB 240,194,270,000 in 2024, up from RMB 179,203,592,000 in 2023[3]. - Net profit for the year surged by 240% to RMB 16,799,095,000, compared to RMB 4,935,018,000 in the previous year[5]. - Basic earnings per share increased by 219% to RMB 1.64, up from RMB 0.51 in 2023[5]. - The proposed final dividend is HKD 0.33 per share, a 50% increase from HKD 0.22 per share in 2023[4]. - The company reported a pre-tax profit of RMB 18,403,553,000, compared to RMB 4,949,942,000 in 2023[5]. - The total comprehensive income for the year amounted to RMB 16,071,111 thousand, reflecting a significant contribution from profit attributable to equity holders of RMB 16,799,095 thousand[12]. - The company reported a profit of RMB 16,487,558 thousand for the year, which is a substantial increase compared to previous periods[12]. Assets and Liabilities - Total assets increased to RMB 125,321,709,000 in 2024, compared to RMB 94,986,761,000 in 2023[8]. - Non-current assets increased to RMB 104,069,950,000 in 2024, up from RMB 78,962,781,000 in 2023[8]. - The total liabilities classified as held for sale amounted to RMB 7,885,018,000 as of December 31, 2023[131]. - The total liabilities of the Lynk & Co Group are RMB 37,170,835 thousand for 2024, compared to RMB 34,363,313 thousand in 2023[97]. - The total amount of trade receivables from related parties controlled by major shareholders increased to RMB 11,193,408,000 in 2024 from RMB 9,190,957,000 in 2023, a rise of 21.8%[104]. Cash Flow and Investments - Operating cash flow for the year was RMB 30,006,013, up 21.5% from RMB 24,649,561 in the previous year[13]. - The company reported a net increase in cash and cash equivalents of RMB 4,078,984, compared to RMB 3,433,947 in the previous year[15]. - The company incurred a loss of RMB 9,097,711 from the estimated loss of partial interests, which was not present in the previous year[13]. - The company reported a cash inflow of RMB 1,757,540,000 from the acquisition of Ningbo Passenger Vehicle, after accounting for the cash consideration paid[150]. Research and Development - Research and development expenses rose to RMB 10,419,240,000, an increase of 33% from RMB 7,809,997,000 in 2023[5]. - The revenue from research and development and related technical support services grew to RMB 7,900,108 thousand, an increase of 20% from RMB 6,591,992 thousand[42]. - The company plans to launch 9 new energy vehicle products in 2024, including models from the Galaxy, Zeekr, and Lynk & Co brands[179]. Foreign Exchange and Risk Management - The company experienced a foreign exchange loss of RMB 709,227 thousand due to the translation of overseas financial statements[12]. - The company faced significant foreign exchange losses due to currency fluctuations in emerging markets, impacting financial performance[186]. - The company has implemented a comprehensive risk management strategy to mitigate foreign exchange risks, including entering into foreign currency forward contracts[188]. Shareholder Activities - The company declared a final dividend of RMB 1,915,763 thousand for the previous year, impacting retained earnings[11]. - The total amount of transactions with owners during the year was RMB (8,802,679) thousand, highlighting significant shareholder activities[12]. - The company's authorized share capital increased from HKD 240 million (12 billion shares) to HKD 360 million (18 billion shares) as of December 31, 2024, approved at the annual general meeting on May 31, 2024[136]. Acquisitions and Joint Ventures - The company completed the acquisition of Lynk & Co, with a total consideration of RMB 9,000,000,000, which will increase its stake in the company to 51%[160]. - The company aims to reduce ongoing related party transactions and enhance operational independence through strategic acquisitions[151]. - The establishment of the joint venture Horse Powertrain was agreed upon on November 8, 2022, with contributions valued at €2,310,000,000 from the company, €1,190,000,000 from Geely, and €3,500,000,000 from Renault[86][87]. Employee and Operational Metrics - The total number of employees increased to approximately 62,000 as of December 31, 2024, compared to 60,000 a year earlier[193]. - The company has established a comprehensive AI layout, achieving a computing power of 23.5 EFLOPS and developing the first full-stack self-researched automotive AI model, which is certified by the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology[182]. Future Outlook - The company has set a sales target of 2.71 million vehicles for 2025, which is approximately a 25% increase from the total sales achieved in 2024[184]. - The group plans a capital expenditure budget of approximately RMB 15 billion for 2025, focusing on new models and smart technology development[177].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Geely Automobile is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - Geely Automobile reported February 2025 sales of 205,000 vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 83.9% but a month-on-month decrease of 23.2% [2][4]. - Cumulative sales for January and February 2025 reached 472,000 vehicles, up 45.2% year-on-year [2][4]. - The company is expected to enter a new product era supported by the GEA platform, with strong performance across its brands including Zeekr, Lynk & Co, and Galaxy [2][4]. - The transition to new energy vehicles is progressing smoothly, with scale effects expected to enhance profitability [2][4]. - Geely's solid foundation in fuel vehicles and innovative overseas expansion strategies are opening new markets [2][4]. - The company is set to accelerate its AI smart driving capabilities, aiming to become a leader in smart automotive technology [2][4]. - The GEA platform is anticipated to drive a new cycle of technology and product development, with significant cost reductions and improved efficiency [2][4]. - Geely's sales target for 2025 is set at 2.71 million vehicles, with a projected year-on-year growth of 25% [2][4]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - February 2025 sales were 205,000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 83.9% and a month-on-month decrease of 23.2% [2][4]. - January-February 2025 cumulative sales reached 472,000 vehicles, up 45.2% year-on-year [2][4]. - Breakdown by brand: Geely brand sold 174,000 vehicles (+91.5% YoY), Zeekr sold 14,000 vehicles (+86.9% YoY), and Lynk & Co sold 17,000 vehicles (+30.5% YoY) [2][4]. New Energy Transition - New energy vehicle sales in February reached 98,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 193.8% [2][4]. - New energy vehicles accounted for 48.0% of total sales, up 18.0 percentage points year-on-year [2][4]. - The company aims for new energy vehicle sales to reach 1.5 million units in 2025, with a projected growth of 69% [2][4]. Strategic Initiatives - Geely is launching a comprehensive AI smart driving strategy, enhancing its technological capabilities [2][4]. - The GEA platform supports various energy forms and is expected to lead to a new cycle of product launches and profitability [2][4]. - The company is expanding its global presence, with over 16 models launched in more than 40 countries [2][4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Insights - In February 2025, the company achieved sales of 205,000 vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 83.9% but a month-on-month decrease of 23.2% [2][4]. - Cumulative sales for January and February 2025 reached 472,000 vehicles, up 45.2% year-on-year [2][4]. - The company is expected to enter a new product era supported by the GEA platform, with strong performance across its brands including Geely, Lynk & Co, and Zeekr [2][6]. - The transition to new energy vehicles is progressing smoothly, with significant scale effects anticipated to enhance profitability [2][6]. - The company has a solid foundation in fuel vehicles and is exploring innovative overseas expansion strategies [2][6]. - An AI-driven smart driving strategy is set to accelerate the enhancement of intelligent driving capabilities [2][6]. - The company aims for a sales target of 2.71 million vehicles in 2025, representing a 25% year-on-year growth, with specific targets for each brand [2][6]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - February 2025 sales were 205,000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 83.9% and a month-on-month decrease of 23.2% [2][4]. - January-February 2025 cumulative sales reached 472,000 vehicles, up 45.2% year-on-year [2][4]. - Breakdown by brand: Geely brand sold 174,000 vehicles (+91.5% YoY), Lynk & Co sold 17,000 vehicles (+30.5% YoY), and Zeekr sold 14,000 vehicles (+86.9% YoY) [2][6]. New Energy Transition - New energy vehicle sales in February reached 98,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 193.8% [2][6]. - The share of new energy vehicles in total sales was 48.0%, up 18.0 percentage points year-on-year [2][6]. - The company is focusing on high-quality overseas expansion, launching models in over 40 countries [2][6]. Strategic Developments - The GEA platform is expected to drive a new cycle of technology and product development, enhancing profitability [2][6]. - The company plans to fully embrace AI technology to improve smart driving capabilities [2][6]. - Expected net profits for 2024-2026 are projected at 16.4 billion, 12.4 billion, and 16.8 billion respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 9.9X, 13.2X, and 9.7X [2][6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of 17.55 HKD [4][7]. Core Insights - The company achieved a record monthly sales of 266,700 vehicles in January, representing a year-on-year increase of 24.9% and a month-on-month increase of 27.0%. The sales of new energy vehicles reached 121,100 units, up 83.9% year-on-year [9]. - The company continues to deepen its global strategic layout, with significant growth in its self-owned brands. The sales of the Geely brand reached 224,700 units in January, a year-on-year increase of 30.1% [9]. - The company plans to expand its overseas sales network, aiming for over 300 sales and service outlets by 2025, with a target overseas sales growth rate of 15.6% [9]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 1.43, 1.08, and 1.29 CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively. The company maintains a comparable company PE average valuation of 15 times, leading to a target price of 16.20 CNY [4]. - The projected revenue for 2024 is 224.63 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 25.4%. The revenue is expected to reach 316.01 billion CNY by 2026 [6][10]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 14.44 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 172.1% [6][10]. Key Financial Metrics - The company reported a revenue of 147.97 billion CNY in 2022, with a gross profit margin of 14.1% and a net profit margin of 3.6% [6][10]. - The projected net profit for 2025 is 10.88 billion CNY, with a net profit margin of 4.0% [6][10]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 6.6% in 2023 to 11.2% by 2026 [6][10].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Geely Automobile with a target price of 26.94 HKD, based on a current price of 17.16 HKD [6]. Core Viewpoints - Geely Automobile is undergoing a transformation from traditional manufacturing to intelligent electric technology, aiming to become a leading global smart technology car manufacturer [1][13]. - The company has integrated various brands through acquisitions, enhancing its research, production, supply chain, and brand influence [1]. - Geely's dual focus on fuel and new energy vehicles allows it to cover a wide price range from 50,000 to 800,000 RMB, catering to diverse market demands [1][15]. Summary by Sections 1. Business Overview - Geely has diversified its business into multiple sectors, with automotive manufacturing as its core, covering fuel and new energy vehicles [15]. - The company has developed modular architectures like CMA, SEA, and SPA Evo to enhance production efficiency and product stability [1][21]. 2. New Energy Business - Geely is creating a differentiated product matrix to meet diverse market needs, with brands like Zeekr and Lynk & Co focusing on high-end markets [3][2]. - The integration of Zeekr and Lynk & Co is expected to enhance profitability through synergies [2][3]. 3. Overseas Business - Geely is accelerating its global expansion through partnerships, such as with Volvo to create a global powertrain leader and collaborations with Proton and Renault Korea [4][3]. 4. Fuel Vehicle Business - Despite a declining domestic market, Geely's fuel vehicle sales have grown, supported by strong models like Boyue and Xingyue [5][47]. - The company plans to adjust its global fuel vehicle strategy to control costs in Europe while expanding into emerging markets [5]. 5. Financial Performance - Geely's revenue reached 179.85 billion RMB in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 21.06%, and a projected net profit of 10.6 billion RMB for the first half of 2024 [6][45]. - The company expects to achieve net profits of 16.24 billion, 12.74 billion, and 15.96 billion RMB from 2024 to 2026, with a PE ratio of 20 times in 2025 [6][46]. 6. Future Planning - Geely has clear brand positioning to avoid internal competition, with specific targets for sales growth across its various brands [51]. - The company aims to sell 2.71 million vehicles in 2025, a 25% increase from 2024, with ambitious targets for new energy vehicle sales [52][53].