1 季度盈利同比高增，资源协同回归"一个 吉利" 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 调整收入、毛利率等，预测 2025-2027 年 EPS 分别为 1.36、1.54、1.94 元（原为 1.27、1.50、1.84 元），维持可比公司 25 年 PE 平均估值 15 倍，目标价 20.40 元 人民币，22.20 港元（1 港元=0.9189 元人民币），维持买入评级。 风险提示 吉利、领克、极氪品牌销量低于预期风险、成本控制不及预期风险。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 179,204 | 240,194 | 305,782 | 359,561 | 424,141 | | 同比增长 (%) | 21.1% | 34.0% | 27.3% | 17.6% | 18.0% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 3,806 | 7,644 | 12,708 | 14,514 | 18,417 | | 同比增长 (%) | 4.3% | 10 ...

Core Viewpoint - Geely Automobile is confident in achieving or exceeding its annual sales targets, with a strong performance in Q1 2025, showcasing significant revenue and profit growth driven by improved profitability in new energy vehicles and effective cost control [2][3]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Geely reported total revenue of 72.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.67 billion yuan, up 264% [2]. - The gross profit for Q1 reached 11.4 billion yuan, reflecting a 26% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin of 15.8%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous year [2]. Sales and Market Strategy - Geely's Q1 sales reached 703,800 units, marking a historical high and a 48% year-on-year increase, achieving 26% of its annual target of 2.71 million units [3]. - The company plans to accelerate its product launch strategy, focusing on both fuel and new energy vehicles, with multiple new models set to be introduced in 2025 [3][4]. Product Development - Geely's new fuel vehicle, the fourth-generation Boyue L, has been launched with a price range of 92,900 to 119,900 yuan, emphasizing intelligent features [4]. - The Geely Galaxy brand aims to introduce five new products in 2025, including two SUVs and three sedans, targeting annual sales of one million units [4]. Cost Control and Efficiency - Geely has implemented significant cost control measures, with sales and administrative expense ratios decreasing by 2.1 and 0.6 percentage points, respectively [2]. - The company has initiated a strategic integration process under the "Taizhou Declaration," focusing on brand, supply chain, and operational efficiencies, which has begun to yield positive results [6][9]. Brand Integration and Market Position - The merger of Zeekr and Lynk & Co has led to improved financial performance for Zeekr, with Q1 revenues of 22 billion yuan and a gross margin of 19.1% [6][7]. - The "One Geely" strategy aims to eliminate redundant investments and enhance operational efficiency, positively impacting the company's stock performance [8][9].

"没有成功的企业，只有时代的企业。" 在当下的汽车领域，吉利汽车，绝对是传统车势力在变革时期实现转型的最成功案例。 最新产销数据显示，4月传统车企中，吉利汽车以53%的同比增速完成23万辆销量，环比也增了0.8%，仅次于同比增了4.6%，环比降了2.4%的上汽（38万 辆）；与同、环比分别大降了9.3%、29%的长安（19万辆）拉开差距。 即便是面对过去几年增长弹性十分可观的新自主势力或新势力，其增速也依然很能打。同月，比亚迪、零跑分别以21%、超170%、超270%、32%的同比 增速实现38万辆、4.1万辆销量、3.5万辆，3.4万辆。 销量高增之下，2025Q1吉利汽车如期实现了强增长业绩：营收同比增长24.5%至725.0亿元；归母净利润为56.7亿元，增速在2024年213%的高点上再次攀 高至263.6%，实现盈利持续大爆发。 不过，表现在资本市场中，吉利汽车（00175.HK）今天技术性走牛的态势并不如同期的比亚迪、零跑、小米汽车等。 一季度吉利以48%的增速实现了70.4万辆的季度总销量新高，其中新能源车占了48%，达33.9万辆；国内新能源渗透率更是突破50%（达52.2%），稳居新 能源品 ...

In 2H2025, Geely's three major brands will strategically expand acrossvarious markets, with more models launching globally, driving an expectedacceleration in overseas sales. Geely's 1Q2025 monthly export sales were29,587 units, up 2.0% yoy, primarily limited by a relatively single lineup of NEVexport models, which restricted market coverage, and the need for deeperorganizational synergy. Despite entering key global markets such as the MiddleEast, APAC, Europe, Latin America, and Africa, Geely's approach ha ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Geely Automobile is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report expresses an optimistic outlook for Geely Automobile's performance in Q1 2025, driven by the launch of several key models, which supports a positive sales and operational performance forecast for the entire year [2] - The company's brand structure is considered reasonable and clear, with expectations for continued revenue and net profit growth as the "Smart Geely 2025" strategy is gradually implemented [7] - The report anticipates Geely's net profit for 2025-2027 to be 16.3 billion RMB, 18.2 billion RMB, and 23.7 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.62 RMB, 1.81 RMB, and 2.35 RMB [7] Financial Summary - In Q1 2025, Geely's sales reached 704,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 48%, with revenue of 72.5 billion RMB, up 25% year-on-year, and a net profit of 5.67 billion RMB, reflecting a 264% increase year-on-year [7] - The company plans to launch 10 new energy models in 2025, with a sales target of 2.71 million units, including 1.5 million units from new energy vehicles [7] - The financial projections indicate a significant increase in revenue from 240.2 billion RMB in 2024 to 321.8 billion RMB in 2025, representing a growth rate of 34% [9]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside in the stock price [6][7]. Core Insights - The company reported significant growth in Q1 2025, with revenue reaching 72.495 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 24.5%, and a net profit of 5.67 billion RMB, up 264% year-on-year, exceeding expectations [7][9]. - The company is accelerating its electric vehicle transformation, with a notable increase in sales of its new energy vehicle brands, which accounted for 48.2% of total sales in Q1, up 18 percentage points year-on-year [9]. - The company is pursuing a strategic integration of its automotive business, including a proposed privatization of its brand Zeekr, which is expected to enhance operational efficiency and reduce costs [9]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company operates in the automotive industry, with a current H-share price of 19.24 HKD and a market capitalization of approximately 135.241 billion RMB [2]. Recent Performance - In Q1 2025, the company sold 703,800 vehicles, a 48% increase year-on-year, with new energy vehicle sales rising by 135% [9]. - The overall gross margin for Q1 was 15.8%, reflecting a slight improvement [9]. Financial Projections - Expected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 13.2 billion RMB, 17.6 billion RMB, and 21.8 billion RMB, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 44%, 30%, and 24% [7][9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for the same years are forecasted to be 1.35 RMB, 1.75 RMB, and 2.2 RMB, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 13, 10, and 8 [7][9].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside in the stock price [6][7]. Core Insights - The company reported significant growth in Q1 2025, with revenue reaching 72.495 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 24.5%, and a net profit of 5.67 billion RMB, up 264% year-on-year, exceeding expectations [7][9]. - The company is accelerating its electric vehicle transformation, with a notable increase in sales of its new energy vehicle brands, which accounted for 48.2% of total sales in Q1, up 18 percentage points year-on-year [9]. - The company is pursuing a strategic integration of its automotive business, including a plan to privatize its brand Zeekr, which is expected to enhance operational efficiency and reduce costs [9]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company operates in the automotive industry, with a current H-share price of 19.24 HKD and a market capitalization of approximately 135.241 billion RMB [2]. Recent Performance - In Q1 2025, the company sold 703,800 vehicles, a 48% increase year-on-year, with new energy vehicle sales rising by 135% [9]. - The overall gross margin for Q1 was 15.8%, reflecting a slight improvement [9]. Financial Projections - Expected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 13.2 billion RMB, 17.6 billion RMB, and 21.8 billion RMB, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 44%, 30%, and 24% [7][9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for the same years are forecasted at 1.35 RMB, 1.75 RMB, and 2.2 RMB, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 13, 10, and 8 [7][9]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on integrating its automotive operations to improve quality and efficiency, with an anticipated overall benefit exceeding 5% post-integration [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][9] Core Views - The company reported strong performance in Q1 2025, with revenue of 72.495 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.672 billion yuan, up 263.6% year-on-year [3][6] - The "One Geely" plan is progressing smoothly, with significant growth in the Galaxy brand's sales contributing to overall revenue growth [6] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023A: 179.846 billion yuan - 2024A: 240.194 billion yuan - 2025E: 318.690 billion yuan - 2026E: 383.448 billion yuan - 2027E: 430.228 billion yuan - Year-on-year growth rates are projected at 21%, 34%, 33%, 20%, and 12% respectively [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted as: - 2023A: 5.166 billion yuan - 2024A: 16.632 billion yuan - 2025E: 13.385 billion yuan - 2026E: 16.763 billion yuan - 2027E: 19.556 billion yuan - Year-on-year growth rates are projected at 1%, 222%, -20%, 25%, and 17% respectively [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates are: - 2023A: 0.51 yuan - 2024A: 1.65 yuan - 2025E: 1.33 yuan - 2026E: 1.66 yuan - 2027E: 1.94 yuan [2] Sales and Profitability - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 15.78%, an increase of 0.15 percentage points year-on-year, while the expense ratio decreased by 2.61 percentage points to approximately 11.55% [6] - The Galaxy brand's sales reached 260,000 units in Q1 2025, showing a year-on-year increase of 574.1% [6] Market Position and Future Outlook - The company is actively pursuing the privatization of Zeekr to enhance operational efficiency and cost reduction [6] - Upcoming model launches, such as the Lynk 900 and Starry 8, are expected to contribute positively to sales in Q2 2025 [6] - The company maintains a positive outlook on revenue and profit growth, with projected revenues of 318.69 billion yuan, 383.45 billion yuan, and 430.23 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6]

Group 1 - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 72.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.67 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 263.4%, exceeding the performance forecast median [1] - Total sales for Q1 reached 704,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 48.0% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.5%; the average selling price (ASP) per vehicle was 103,000 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.8% due to price competition and an increase in the proportion of lower-priced Geely brand sales [1] - The gross margin for Q1 was 15.8%, a year-on-year increase of 0.2 percentage points, primarily due to scale effects and improved profitability of new energy products [1] Group 2 - The company achieved significant cost control, with sales, R&D, and administrative expense ratios for Q1 at 5.0%, 4.6%, and 2.0%, respectively, showing year-on-year decreases of 2.1, 0.0, and 0.5 percentage points [1] - Other income for Q1 was 3.59 billion yuan, with year-on-year increases of 753.4% and 1613.1%, mainly attributed to foreign exchange gains [1] - After excluding other income and share-based payment expenses, the net profit for Q1 was 2.44 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 84.3%, with overall profit per vehicle at 2,900 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 59.1% [1] Group 3 - The company announced plans to acquire all issued shares of Zeekr, further implementing the "Taizhou Declaration" to focus on the automotive main business, enhance resource utilization efficiency, and strengthen its global competitiveness in the smart new energy vehicle sector [2] - The company maintains its net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at 14.2 billion, 19.6 billion, and 27.1 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 11, 8, and 6 times, maintaining a "buy" rating for Geely Automobile [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant financial performance of Geely Automobile in Q1 2025, with a revenue of 72.5 billion yuan, representing a 25% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 5.67 billion yuan, showing a remarkable 264% growth in profitability [2] - Geely's gross profit surged to 11.4 billion yuan, achieving a gross margin of 15.8%, attributed to improved profitability in the new energy sector and the release of scale effects [2] - The integration of Zeekr and Lynk & Co brands into Geely is a strategic move aimed at enhancing internal resource integration and operational efficiency, as emphasized by the CEO, who stated that the market does not allow for errors [3] Group 2 - The integration aims to implement the "Taizhou Declaration," focusing on the automotive industry and creating a unified Geely to reduce costs and enhance long-term value [3] - The first quarterly report post-integration shows Zeekr's net loss significantly narrowed by over 60% year-on-year, with a profit of 510 million yuan under Hong Kong accounting standards, marking the best financial performance for both brands in the same period [3] - Geely plans to achieve substantial savings in R&D and procurement, targeting a reduction in management and marketing expenses through enhanced collaboration in back-office operations [4]