Geely Automobile (175 HK) We expect more resilient margins than peers Maintain BUY. Although Geely's 4Q25 GPM missed our prior forecast, its management's upbeat tone gives us more confidence in its GPM outlook. We believe that Geely is better positioned than most peers with its sales growth outlook, cost reduction efforts, and overseas sales potential. Unlike some investors, we do not view its synergy with parent company and partnerships with other players as a valuation drag given its track record in the p ...

2026 年 3 月 19 日 公司研究 2026E 产品结构改善，全域 AI 赋能+全球化提速 ——吉利汽车（0175.HK）2025 年年报点评 要点 全年业绩披露： 2025 年吉利总收入同比+25.1%至 3,452.3 亿元（vs. 我们预 测 3,530.7 亿元），毛利率同比持平为 16.6%，归母净利润同比+0.2%至 168.5 亿元（vs. 我们预测 177.4 亿元），核心归母净利润同比+36%至 144.1 亿元。 新能源车驱动销量高增，车型结构持续改善：2025 年吉利总销量同比+39.0% 至 302.5 万辆（新能源车销量同比+90%至 168.8 万辆，新能源车销量占比同 比+15.0pcts 至 55.8%）；分品牌看，吉利银河/领克/极氪品牌 2025 年总销 量分别为 123.6 万辆（同比+149.9%）、35.0 万辆（同比+22.8%）、22.4 万 辆（同比+0.9%）。我们判断，2026E 吉利销量有望保持稳健增长（指引 2026E 销量目标同比+14%至 345 万辆）：1）极氪：聚焦拓展豪华产品矩阵，极氪 8X、9X 将持续引领超级电混与智能驾驶体验升级（8 ...

[Table_Page] 公告点评|汽车与汽车零部件 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 【 广 发 汽 车 & 海 外 】 吉 利 汽 车 (00175.HK) 25Q4 业绩符合预期，高端化弹性可期 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 盈利预测： | [Table_ 单位:Finance] 人民币百万元 | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主营收入 | 240,194 | 345,232 | 476,400 | 583,300 | 681,707 | | 增长率（ % ） | 34.0% | 43.7% | 38.0% | 22.4% | 16.9% | | EBITDA | 19,754 | 37,157 | 38,414 | 46,860 | 54,592 | | NonGAAP 归母净利 | 10,611 | 14,413 | 22,101 | 30,468 | 38,675 | | 增长率（ % ） | - | 35.8% | 53.3% | 37.9% | ...

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Core Insights - Geely Automobile Holdings Limited reported a record total revenue of 345.2 billion yuan for 2025, representing a 25% year-on-year increase, with core net profit rising by 36% to 14.41 billion yuan, indicating high-quality growth [1] - The company achieved a total sales volume of 3.025 million vehicles in 2025, a 39% increase, exceeding its adjusted target of 3 million units [1] - Geely's cash reserves increased by 46% to 68.2 billion yuan, allowing for a proposed dividend increase of 51.5% to 0.5 HKD per share [1] Revenue and Profit Growth - Total revenue reached 345.2 billion yuan, a 25% increase year-on-year, marking a historical high [1] - Core net profit after excluding foreign exchange impacts was 14.41 billion yuan, up 36% year-on-year, indicating a higher growth rate than revenue [1] - Gross profit increased to 57.3 billion yuan, also a 25% year-on-year rise [1] Sales Performance - Total vehicle sales reached 3.025 million units, a 39% increase, surpassing the revised target of 3 million units [1] - New energy vehicle sales exceeded 1.68 million units, a significant 90% increase, placing Geely among the top tier in new energy development [1] - In the first two months of 2026, Geely sold 476,000 vehicles, maintaining the industry's leading position [1] Brand Strategy and Market Positioning - The "One Geely" strategy was further deepened, integrating Zeekr and enhancing brand positioning across mainstream, high-end, and luxury markets [3] - Zeekr brand sales surpassed 224,000 units in 2025, with a record monthly sales of over 30,000 units in December [3] - Lynk & Co maintained strong growth with annual sales of 350,000 units, a 23% increase [5] New Energy and Technological Advancements - Geely Galaxy became a significant growth driver, achieving 1.24 million units in sales, a 150% increase [7] - The company launched the first full-domain AI technology system in the industry, marking a significant milestone in its smart and electric vehicle strategy [10] - Geely's advancements in battery technology include the ShenDun battery with industry-leading safety and fast-charging capabilities [14] Global Expansion and Market Penetration - Geely's overseas sales reached 420,000 units in 2025, with over 120,000 units being new energy vehicles, reflecting a strong global competitive advantage [17] - The brand entered 13 new markets in 2025, expanding its presence in Europe and high-potential markets in South America and Africa [19] - Geely's localization efforts included the launch of a CKD factory in Egypt and the production of new energy vehicles in Indonesia [20] Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) Initiatives - Geely was included in the S&P Global "Sustainability Yearbook 2026," being the only Chinese automaker among 88 selected manufacturers [22] - The company achieved a 25.5% reduction in carbon emissions per vehicle compared to 2020, exceeding its carbon reduction targets [22] - Geely continues to lead in ESG rankings, being recognized as the top Asian automaker in the Lead the Charge automotive supply chain ESG ranking [22]

Core Viewpoint - Geely Automobile has achieved record high performance in 2025, with total revenue reaching 345.23 billion yuan, a 25% year-on-year increase, and aims for a sales target of 3.45 million units in 2026 [1][3][8] Financial Performance - In 2025, Geely's total revenue was 345.23 billion yuan, marking a 25% increase year-on-year, and the core net profit reached 14.41 billion yuan, up 36% [3] - The gross profit increased to 57.3 billion yuan, a 25% rise compared to the previous year, supported by scale effects and optimized product structure [3] - By the end of 2025, the company's total cash level rose by 46% to 68.2 billion yuan, indicating strong cash reserves [3] Sales Performance - In 2023, Geely achieved sales of 1.6865 million units, an 18% increase, exceeding its annual sales target [3] - The sales target for 2024 was initially set at 1.9 million units but was later raised to 2 million units, which was surpassed with total sales of 2.1766 million units, a 32% increase [4][5] - In 2025, Geely's sales reached 3.0246 million units, a 39% increase, exceeding the adjusted target of 3 million units [7][8] Strategic Partnerships - Geely announced a deepened collaboration with NVIDIA in three key areas: physical AI, enterprise AI, and industrial AI, aimed at enhancing the company's capabilities in smart driving and intelligent cockpit technologies [1][10] - The partnership with NVIDIA is expected to facilitate advancements in smart driving capabilities, with a goal to reach Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) level by 2026 [10] Product Development - Geely plans to launch multiple new products in 2026, covering various market segments from mainstream to luxury and from fuel to new energy vehicles [8] - The company is set to introduce a new auxiliary driving brand, G-ASD, which will encompass smart driving capabilities from L2 to L4 levels [10][11] - A significant breakthrough in "cockpit and driving integration" has been achieved, with the upcoming release of the super intelligent body, integrating smart cockpit and driving assistance technologies [11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Geely Automobile has set ambitious export targets for 2026, aiming for significant growth in international markets [2][3] Group 2 - In 2025, Geely achieved exports of 420,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 1% [2] - For 2026, Geely has set an export target of 640,000 units, which is over 50% growth compared to the previous year [3] - The internal management has set a more challenging target of 750,000 units, which would imply a year-on-year growth of nearly 80% [3] - In the first two months of the year, Geely's overseas sales reached 121,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 129% [3] Group 3 - Channel development is prioritized, with Geely establishing subsidiaries in Mexico and Chile, which began operations last year [3] - Geely plans to enhance its overseas KD production capacity and accelerate the construction of its overseas store network, aiming to add 1,300 stores globally for the Geely brand and 500 for the Zeekr brand [3] Group 4 - Geely's product strategy includes launching popular domestic models like Boyue, Xingyue L, and Emgrand in international markets [3] - The Lynk & Co brand will strengthen its European strategy, leveraging Volvo resources to promote models like Lynk & Co 08 and 01 in Europe [3] - The Zeekr brand has already launched the 7X model in Europe and plans to enter the Korean market and other regions in the first half of the year [3]

Core Viewpoint - Geely Automobile Holdings Limited reported a significant increase in revenue and profits for the year 2025, indicating strong growth and a successful strategic direction in both domestic and international markets [2][3]. Financial Performance - Geely's revenue for 2025 reached RMB 345.2 billion, a 25% increase from RMB 275.9 billion in the previous year [3][4]. - Other income surged to RMB 6.17 billion, up 449% from RMB 1.12 billion year-on-year [2][4]. - Gross profit for 2025 was RMB 57.3 billion, reflecting a 25% growth from RMB 45.8 billion in 2024 [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 16.85 billion, a slight increase from RMB 16.81 billion, while the core net profit grew by 36% to RMB 14.41 billion [4][5]. Sales Performance - Total vehicle sales for 2025 reached 3.025 million units, a 39% increase from 2.176 million units in 2024 [5]. - New energy vehicle sales exceeded 1.68 million units, contributing significantly to overall sales growth [5]. - The fuel vehicle segment also showed resilience, with sales of the Geely China Star reaching 1.21 million units, a 3% increase [6]. Strategic Developments - Geely is deepening its "One Geely" strategy, completing the integration with Zeekr, which enhances its brand portfolio across mainstream, high-end, and luxury markets [7]. - The Zeekr brand achieved sales of over 224,000 units in 2025, with a monthly sales record of over 30,000 units in December [8]. - Geely's international expansion included entering 13 new markets, with a total of over 1,200 sales outlets in 88 countries by the end of 2025 [11]. Future Outlook - Geely aims for a sales target of 3.45 million units in 2026, with plans to launch multiple new products across various market segments [12]. - The company is enhancing its global manufacturing capabilities, with new plants in Egypt and Indonesia, and ongoing localization efforts in key markets [11].