新车周期促进 2024 年销量大幅增长 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 调整收入、毛利率及费用率等，预测 2024-2026 年 EPS 分别为 1.43、1.08、1.29 元（原 1.48、0.94、1.18 元），可比公司 25 年 PE 平均估值 15 倍，目标价 16.20 元人民币，17.60 元港币（1 港币=0.9206 人民币），维持买入评级。 风险提示 吉利、领克、极氪品牌销量低于预期风险、成本控制不及预期风险。 | | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 147,965 | 179,204 | 224,632 | 269,476 | 316,008 | | 同比增长 (%) | 45.6% | 21.1% | 25.4% | 20.0% | 17.3% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 3,650 | 3,806 | 13,751 | 10,272 | 12,142 | | 同比增长 (%) | 14.8% | 4.3% | 261.3% | ...

吉利汽车（0175.HK）系列点评十九 2025 销量开门红 银河加速爬坡 2024 年 02 月 03 日 ➢ 事件概述：公司发布 1 月销量公告，1 月批发总销量 26.7 万辆，同比+24.9%， 环比+27.0%。其中，1 月新能源销量 121,071 辆，同比+83.9%，环比+8.9%， 渗透率 45.4%。 分品牌看：吉利品牌 1 月销量 22.5 万辆（银河 93,545 辆（含几何））；极氪 1 月 销量 11,942 辆；领克 1 月销量 30,077 辆。 ➢ 1 月销量开门红 2025 冲刺 271 万辆。1 月公司总批发销量环比增长，再 创新高，受银河、极氪品牌新品上量驱动，1 月新能源批发总销量 12.1 万辆，同 比+83.9%，环比+8.9%，表现亮眼。根据公司公告的销量目标，公司 2025 年 目标销量为 271 万辆，预计同比增长约 25%，其中吉利品牌 200 万辆、极氪品 牌 32 万辆、领克品牌 39 万辆。此外，新能源汽车销量目标为 150 万辆，预计 同比增长约 69%，吉利新能源品牌定位更加清晰，银河、极氪（含领克）分别定 位主流消费市场、科技豪华，2025 年 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company is entering a new growth phase, focusing on resource integration and strategic alignment, particularly in the electric vehicle (EV) sector [1][12]. - The company has established itself as a leading player in the domestic EV market, with a clear multi-brand strategy that enhances its competitive positioning [2][35]. - The profitability of the main brand in the EV segment is expected to improve significantly, driven by cost reductions and increased sales volume [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Introduction - The company has a strong foundation in vehicle manufacturing and is positioned to increase market share and brand value through revenue and profit expansion [10]. 2. New Energy Brand Momentum - The company has clarified its brand positioning with three main brands: Galaxy (mainstream), Zeekr (luxury), and Lynk & Co (youthful) [35][21]. - As of July 2024, the company's new energy vehicle (NEV) sales accounted for over 40% of total sales, with expectations for further growth [35][36]. 3. Profitability - The company is expected to see a turnaround in profitability, with revenue projections of 224.8 billion, 289.7 billion, and 338.8 billion RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4][5]. - The main brand's EV segment is entering a positive profit cycle, supported by new model launches and cost efficiencies [3][4]. 4. International Expansion - The company is leveraging its global resources to enhance its international market presence, particularly in regions with high demand for its products [4][12]. 5. Smart Technology - The company is advancing its smart driving and cockpit technologies, with significant investments in self-developed systems and collaborations with suppliers [5][12]. 6. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The report adjusts the profit forecast, expecting net profits of 9.02 billion, 14.1 billion, and 17.45 billion RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4][5]. - The company is positioned for a strong valuation with a PE ratio of 14, 9, and 8 for the respective years [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Geely Automobile with a target price of HKD 19.0, indicating a potential upside of 35% from the current price of HKD 14.1 [1][4][3]. Core Insights - Geely Automobile achieved a total sales volume of 2.177 million units in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 32%, exceeding its sales target [2][3]. - The report highlights the strong performance of Geely's brands, driven by new technologies and product upgrades, which are expected to continue fueling sales and revenue growth [1][3]. - The company aims for a sales target of 2.71 million units in 2025, with a focus on new energy vehicles (NEVs) and a projected NEV sales volume of 1.5 million units, reflecting a growth of 69% [3][2]. Sales Performance - In December 2024, Geely's total sales reached 210,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 43%, with the Geely brand alone selling 157,000 units, up 46% year-on-year [2]. - The cumulative sales for the Geely brand in 2024 were 1.669 million units, a 27.4% increase, while Zeekr and Lynk & Co brands saw significant growth of 87.2% and 29.6% respectively [2][3]. Financial Projections - The report projects Geely's revenue to grow from RMB 179.2 billion in FY2023 to RMB 239.3 billion in FY2024, marking a growth rate of 34% [7]. - Net profit is expected to increase significantly to RMB 15.8 billion in FY2024, reflecting a growth rate of 197% compared to the previous year [7]. - The gross margin is projected to improve gradually, reaching 16.5% by FY2026 [7]. Product Strategy - Geely plans to launch five new energy products in 2025, including two SUVs and three sedans, with a new hybrid technology to enhance competitiveness [3]. - The Zeekr brand will focus on increasing its smart technology offerings, planning to release three new models in 2025 [3]. - Lynk & Co aims to upgrade its existing products and introduce two new hybrid models in the second and third quarters of 2025 [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 14.82 HKD, corresponding to a PE ratio of 9/11/8 for the years 2024-2026 [3][18]. Core Insights - The company achieved a total wholesale sales volume of 210,000 units in December, representing a year-on-year increase of 43% and a full-year total of 2.177 million units, up 32% year-on-year. The new energy vehicle (NEV) sales reached 111,206 units in December, up 84% year-on-year, with a penetration rate of 52.9% [3]. - For 2025, the company targets a sales volume of 2.71 million units, with a projected year-on-year growth of approximately 25%. The NEV sales target is set at 1.5 million units, expecting a year-on-year growth of about 69% [3]. - The launch of the GEA architecture's first plug-in hybrid product, the Galaxy Starship 7, is expected to enhance the company's market share in the NEV segment, with initial delivery volumes exceeding 10,000 units within 13 days of launch [3]. - The company has increased its stake in Zeekr and gained control over Lynk & Co, which is anticipated to improve internal resource integration and operational efficiency [3]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 224.78 billion, 277.69 billion, and 308.83 billion CNY, respectively. Net profit estimates are 16.04 billion, 12.58 billion, and 16.32 billion CNY for the same period [2][3]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted at 1.59, 1.25, and 1.62 CNY for 2024-2026, respectively [2][3]. - The report highlights a significant increase in net profit growth rate for 2024 at 202.1%, followed by a decrease in 2025 and a recovery in 2026 [2].

Group 1 - The board has set a sales target of 2.71 million vehicles for 2025, representing an approximate 25% increase compared to the total sales achieved in 2024 [1] - In a recent announcement, Geely Automobile reported a December 2024 sales figure of 210,100 vehicles, marking a year-on-year growth of approximately 43% [2] - The cumulative sales for Geely in 2024 reached 2.1766 million vehicles, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 32% [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Geely Automobile is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - The launch of the Galaxy Starship 7 EM-i on December 6, 2024, is based on the new GEA architecture, featuring the next-generation Thunder EM hybrid technology, achieving a comprehensive range of 1420 km and a fuel consumption of 3.75 L per 100 km in electric mode. The vehicle is priced between 99,800 to 132,800 CNY, with immediate delivery upon launch. This pricing is lower than expected, indicating potential for Geely to create a popular hybrid model [2][6][8]. - The new platform is expected to usher in a new era for Geely, with positive developments across its brands, including Zeekr, Lynk & Co, and Galaxy. The company is well-positioned for a new vehicle cycle, with a solid foundation in fuel vehicles and innovative overseas expansion strategies [8]. Summary by Sections Event Description - The Galaxy Starship 7 EM-i, an A-class plug-in hybrid SUV, was officially launched on December 6, 2024. It features the new Thunder EM hybrid technology, offering a comprehensive range of 1420 km and a fuel consumption of 3.75 L per 100 km. The vehicle is available in five versions, with a promotional price of 99,800 to 132,800 CNY, and is ready for immediate delivery [6][8]. Event Commentary - The pricing of the Galaxy Starship 7 has exceeded expectations, being 10,000 CNY lower than the pre-sale price. The official price ranges from 103,800 to 136,800 CNY, which is 6,000 CNY lower than the pre-sale price. Customers who place a deposit before January 31, 2025, can enjoy an additional discount of 4,000 CNY. The vehicle competes directly with BYD's models, with the Starship 7's promotional price being 16,000 CNY lower than the comparable BYD Song Pro model. The market response to the Starship 7 is comparable to the E5's launch, indicating strong product appeal and pricing strategy [6][8]. Product Features - The Galaxy Starship 7 EM-i is built on the GEA architecture, featuring a spacious design with a wheelbase of 2755 mm and a high space utilization rate of 84.3%. It incorporates advanced technology, including an 11-in-1 hybrid electric drive system and an AI energy management system. The vehicle offers two pure electric range options of 55 km and 120 km, with a maximum comprehensive range of 1420 km [7][8]. Financial Outlook - Geely's financial outlook remains positive, with expected net profits of 16 billion, 11.8 billion, and 15.7 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. The corresponding P/E ratios are projected to be 8.5X, 11.7X, and 8.7X, indicating a favorable valuation position [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Geely Automobile is "Buy" and is maintained [10]. Core Insights - Geely Automobile reported a record sales figure of 250,000 vehicles in November 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 27.0% and a month-on-month increase of 10.3% [6]. - Cumulative sales from January to November 2024 reached 1.967 million vehicles, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 30.9% [6]. - The GEA platform is expected to initiate a new product cycle, enhancing profitability and driving sales growth across its brands [8]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In November 2024, Geely's total sales reached 250,000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 27.0% and a month-on-month increase of 10.3% [6]. - For the period from January to November 2024, cumulative sales were 1.967 million vehicles, up 30.9% year-on-year [6]. - By brand, Geely's sales in November included 190,000 units for the Geely brand, 75,000 units for Galaxy, 27,000 units for Zeekr, and 33,000 units for Lynk & Co [6]. New Energy Vehicles - November saw strong performance in new energy vehicle sales, totaling 122,000 units, which is an increase of 88.3% year-on-year and 12.6% month-on-month [6]. - New energy vehicles accounted for 49.0% of total sales, up 16.5 percentage points year-on-year [6]. Product Development and Strategy - The GEA platform is set to support a new cycle of product launches, with significant cost reductions and improved efficiency [7]. - The Galaxy E5 and Star Wish models have shown strong sales, contributing to the overall growth [7]. - The integration of Zeekr and Lynk & Co is expected to optimize brand architecture and enhance resource collaboration [8]. Financial Projections - The projected net profits for Geely from 2024 to 2026 are estimated at 16 billion, 11.8 billion, and 15.7 billion respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 8.0X, 11.0X, and 8.2X [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price based on a PE ratio of 8/10/8 for the years 2024-2026 [5][3]. Core Insights - The company reported strong wholesale sales of 250,000 units in November, a year-on-year increase of 25.0% and a month-on-month increase of 10.3%. Cumulatively, sales from January to November reached 1.967 million units, up 28.4% year-on-year [3]. - New energy vehicle (NEV) sales in November were particularly impressive, totaling 122,453 units, representing an 88.3% year-on-year increase and a 12.6% month-on-month increase, with a penetration rate of 49.0% [3]. - The upcoming launch of the Galaxy Starship 7, the first plug-in hybrid product based on the GEA architecture, is expected to enhance the company's market position in the NEV segment [3]. - The company has increased its stake in Zeekr and gained control over Lynk & Co, which is anticipated to improve internal resource integration and operational efficiency [3]. - The financial forecast for 2024-2026 anticipates revenues of 224.78 billion, 277.69 billion, and 308.83 billion yuan, with net profits of 16.04 billion, 12.58 billion, and 16.32 billion yuan respectively [3][4]. Financial Summary - Projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 224.78 billion, 277.69 billion, and 308.83 billion yuan, with growth rates of 25.4%, 23.5%, and 11.2% respectively [4][18]. - Net profit estimates for the same years are 16.04 billion, 12.58 billion, and 16.32 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 202.1%, -21.5%, and 29.7% [4][18]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.59, 1.25, and 1.62 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4][18].

Investment Rating - Buy rating maintained for Geely Automobile (0175 HK) [10] Core Views - Geely Automobile's Q3 2024 performance showed strong growth with revenue reaching 1676 8 billion yuan, up 36 0% YoY, and net profit attributable to shareholders surging 358 5% YoY to 130 53 billion yuan [6] - The company's new energy vehicle (NEV) transformation is accelerating, with NEV sales accounting for over 50% of domestic market penetration in Q3 [6] - The integration of Zeekr and Lynk & Co is expected to optimize brand structure and enhance internal resource synergy [8] - Geely's GEA architecture supports a new product cycle, with Zeekr, Lynk & Co, and Galaxy brands performing well [8] Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue reached 603 8 billion yuan, up 20 5% YoY and 9 8% QoQ, marking a record high for single-quarter revenue [6] - Q3 2024 net profit attributable to shareholders was 24 6 billion yuan, up 92 4% YoY and 78 4% QoQ [7] - Gross margin improved to 15 6% in Q3, with further optimization in expense ratios [7] Brand Performance - Zeekr achieved sales of 55,000 units in Q3, up 51% YoY, with revenue reaching 18 36 billion yuan, a 31% YoY increase [7] - Lynk & Co and Zeekr's integration is expected to reduce related-party transactions and eliminate competition, enhancing resource synergy [8] Strategic Developments - Geely Group plans to transfer 11 3% of Zeekr shares to Geely Automobile, increasing its stake to approximately 62 8% [8] - Zeekr will acquire 51% of Lynk & Co, with 30% of the shares purchased from Volvo Group for 5 4 billion yuan [8] - The transaction is expected to be completed by Q1 2025, further solidifying Geely's strategic focus [8] Valuation and Outlook - Geely Automobile's current valuation remains low, with expected net profits of 160 billion, 118 billion, and 157 billion yuan for 2024-2026, respectively [8] - The company's PE ratios for 2024-2026 are projected at 7 7X, 10 5X, and 7 9X, indicating potential upside [8]