Group 1: Market Performance - Dongyue Group (00189) saw a rise of over 1%, with expectations for increased refrigerant demand as the new cooling season begins, despite a seasonal decline in August [1] - Hong Kong's banking stocks experienced a rally, with Agricultural Bank (01288) up over 2%, and other banks like ICBC (01398) and China Merchants Bank (03968) also gaining over 1%. The overall asset quality of listed banks remains stable, and profit growth is expected to continue [1] - In the gold sector, Lingbao Gold (03330) rose over 3%, with other companies like Chifeng Jilong Gold (06693) and Shandong Gold (01787) also seeing significant gains, driven by lower-than-expected U.S. job growth data which increased interest in gold [3] Group 2: Company Announcements - InnoCare (02577) surged over 8% after being named the only Chinese chip company in NVIDIA's 800VDC power architecture collaboration, indicating a significant partnership in AI data centers [2] - Derun Shipping (02510) announced a profit forecast of approximately $180 million to $200 million for the six months ending June 30, 2025, representing a 220% to 255% increase compared to the previous year [2] - China Eastern Education (00667) reported an expected profit increase of no less than 45% for the first half of the year, driven by a 7% increase in new student registrations and effective cost control [3] Group 3: Financial Results - Amazon (AMZN.US) reported second-quarter earnings that exceeded expectations, with AWS revenue growing 17% year-over-year, but the third-quarter profit guidance fell short of market expectations [5] - Coinbase (COIN.US) saw a 16.7% drop after reporting second-quarter revenue of $1.5 billion, which was below analyst expectations, despite a significant profit increase due to investments [5] - Moderna (MRNA.US) experienced a decline of over 10% due to delays in vaccine shipments, leading to a downward revision of its revenue forecast for 2025 [7]

Group 1 - Dongyue Group's stock price increased by 2.66%, currently at HKD 10.81, with a trading volume of HKD 51.95 million [1] - The company announced a profit warning, expecting a significant year-on-year increase of approximately 150% in net profit attributable to shareholders for the fiscal year ending June 30, 2025 [1] - The primary reason for this expected growth is attributed to the substantial increase in prices of certain refrigerant products compared to the same period last year [1] Group 2 - Guosen Securities reported that mainstream refrigerant product prices are expected to show stable growth, with average prices for R32 projected at 56,000, 57,000, and 58,000 yuan for August to October, respectively [1] - For R134a, the average prices are expected to be 50,000, 51,000, and 52,000 yuan during the same period [1] - The price of R227ea has risen to 73,000 yuan per ton due to impacts from insufficient production and inventory replenishment in fire protection [1] Group 3 - August is typically a low season for air conditioning manufacturers, leading to a decrease in refrigerant demand; however, with the arrival of the "golden September and silver October," an increase in demand is anticipated as the new cooling season begins [1] - The limited annual supply of refrigerants is expected to support a strong pricing sentiment, with R32 prices likely to remain high in the coming three months [1] - As the annual quota for R134a continues to be consumed, the pricing sentiment is expected to strengthen, with high-price offers being realized and an anticipated increase in export demand from September to October [1]

Group 1 - Dongyue Group (00189) shares increased by over 3%, currently up 2.66% at HKD 10.81, with a trading volume of HKD 51.95 million [1] - The company recently announced a positive earnings forecast, expecting a significant year-on-year net profit increase of approximately 150% for the fiscal year ending June 30, 2025 [1] - The primary reason for this expected growth is attributed to a substantial rise in the prices of certain refrigerant products compared to the same period last year [1] Group 2 - According to Guosen Securities, mainstream refrigerant product prices are expected to show stable growth, with average prices for R32 in August to October projected at 56,000, 57,000, and 58,000 CNY respectively, and R134a at 50,000, 51,000, and 52,000 CNY [1] - The price of R227ea has increased to 73,000 CNY/ton due to impacts from fire-fighting stockpiling and insufficient production [1] - August is typically a low season for air conditioning production, leading to reduced refrigerant demand; however, with the arrival of the peak season in September and October, an increase in refrigerant demand is anticipated [1]

Group 1 - Dongyue Group (00189) shares rose over 3%, currently up 2.66% at HKD 10.81, with a trading volume of HKD 51.95 million [1] - The company recently announced a profit warning, expecting a significant year-on-year increase of approximately 150% in net profit attributable to shareholders for the fiscal year ending June 30, 2025 [1] - The board attributes this growth primarily to a substantial increase in the prices of certain refrigerant products compared to the same period last year [1] Group 2 - Guosen Securities noted that mainstream refrigerant product prices are expected to stabilize and grow, with average prices for R32 in August to October projected at 56,000, 57,000, and 58,000 CNY respectively; R134a prices are expected to be 50,000, 51,000, and 52,000 CNY [1] - R227ea prices have risen to 73,000 CNY/ton due to impacts from fire-fighting material stockpiling and insufficient production [1] - August is typically a low season for air conditioning production, leading to reduced refrigerant demand; however, with the arrival of the peak season in September and October, along with the start of a new cooling year, an increase in refrigerant demand is anticipated [1] Group 3 - The limited supply situation is expected to support price stability, with a strong price-holding sentiment evident in the market [1] - Refrigerant R32 prices are likely to continue to run at high levels in the next three months [1] - As the annual quota for R134a continues to be consumed, the price-holding sentiment is expected to strengthen, with high-price offers being realized and an anticipated increase in export demand from September to October [1]

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Hong Kong 300 Materials Index has shown significant growth, with a year-to-date increase of 45.40% and a recent one-month increase of 6.23% [1] Group 1: Index Performance - The China Securities Hong Kong 300 Materials Index reported a value of 2376.75 points, with a decline of 0.37% on the last trading day [1] - The index has experienced a three-month increase of 26.52% [1] Group 2: Index Composition - The top ten holdings in the China Securities Hong Kong 300 Materials Index include Zijin Mining (26.25%), China Hongqiao (12.13%), and Luoyang Molybdenum (7.36%) [1] - The index is fully composed of stocks listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with a 100% representation [1] Group 3: Industry Breakdown - The industry composition of the index shows that non-ferrous metals account for 79.26%, non-metallic materials for 14.63%, chemicals for 4.42%, and paper and packaging for 1.70% [2] - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with changes implemented on the next trading day following the second Friday of June and December [2]

Group 1: Market Performance - The fluorochemical sector showed steady performance in July, with the fluorochemical index rising by 6.29%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.32 percentage points [1] - As of the end of July, the fluorochemical index was at 1471.59 points, which is an increase of 6.29% compared to the end of June [1] - The chemical price indices reported by Guosen Securities indicated a slight decrease in the fluorochemical price index by 2.76% and an increase in the refrigerant price index by 2.24% as of July 30, 2025 [1] Group 2: Refrigerant Prices - Retail prices for the main refrigerant R32 continued to rise, with R227ea prices increasing rapidly to 73,000 yuan/ton due to demand from the firefighting sector [2] - Price forecasts for R32 are expected to stabilize with average prices projected at 56,000 yuan in August, 57,000 yuan in September, and 58,000 yuan in October [2] - The market anticipates an increase in refrigerant demand with the approach of the "Golden September and Silver October" period and the new cooling year [2] Group 3: Air Conditioning Production - Air conditioning production has been adjusted upwards due to high summer temperatures, with the total production for August expected to be 6.735 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 11.9% [5] - The cumulative export of air conditioners from January to June reached 41.08 million units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.9% [5] - The third batch of 69 billion yuan for the old-for-new program has been allocated, providing support for the industry [4] Group 4: Company Developments - Companies such as Dongyangguang, Wengfu Group, and others have reported profit growth in their mid-year financial announcements [6] - The fluorine polymer and supporting projects by Dongyangguang have completed acceptance public announcements, indicating ongoing expansion in the sector [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the refrigerant industry [13]. Core Insights - The refrigerant industry is experiencing a price increase under quota control since 2024, with significant price rises observed for various refrigerants. The sustainability and potential for further price increases are areas of market concern, which the report aims to explore [5][8]. - The report emphasizes that the price increase is not driven by traditional supply-demand mismatches but rather reflects a new operational model in the industry. The supply side is characterized by high concentration and limited capacity for new entrants, particularly in China, which holds a dominant position in production and market share [8][40]. Summary by Sections Price Sustainability - The sustainability of price increases is linked to the current position of products within their cycles. The report suggests that refrigerants have moved beyond traditional cyclical logic, indicating a potential for long-term price increases [8][36]. - The supply side is constrained, with a high concentration of market players and limited ability to increase supply globally. This is further supported by the fact that the domestic market has significant production power [8][40]. Price Potential - The report discusses the potential for price increases, noting that the historical price elasticity of refrigerants allows for significant price tolerance. For instance, R32's price has risen from 1.70 million yuan/ton to 5.40 million yuan/ton, reflecting a 217.6% increase [23]. - The report argues that the long-term production costs of alternative refrigerants (like R1234yf) do not set a ceiling for the prices of existing refrigerants, suggesting that the price of third-generation refrigerants could continue to rise [9][69]. Long-term Investment Value - The report concludes that the refrigerant industry holds substantial long-term investment value, with companies increasingly approaching traditional chemical product valuation peaks. The ongoing price increases and the unique market dynamics suggest that related companies may be undervalued [10][11]. - Specific companies such as Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., Dongyue Group, Yonghe Co., and Haohua Technology are recommended for continued investment due to their strong market positions and growth potential [11].

Industry Overview - The tetrachloroethylene industry in China is experiencing a critical period of both overcapacity and demand upgrade as of 2025 [1][5] - From January to May 2025, China's tetrachloroethylene production reached 78,100 tons, an increase of 8.59% year-on-year, while consumption was 87,000 tons, up 1.02% year-on-year [1][5] - Technological upgrades, such as the replacement of thermal chlorination with oxychlorination, have improved production efficiency and reduced unit costs [1][5] Industry Chain - The upstream of the tetrachloroethylene industry includes raw materials like chlorine, ethylene, acetylene, and calcium hydroxide, as well as production equipment [3] - The midstream involves the production and manufacturing of tetrachloroethylene, while the downstream applications include dry cleaning, metal cleaning, environmental testing, and chemical raw materials [3] Current Industry Status - As of June 2025, the price of tetrachloroethylene in China was 3,691 yuan per ton, a decrease of 7.47% year-on-year, primarily due to an imbalance between supply and demand [7] - The operating rate in June 2025 was 61.73%, a decrease of 11.91 percentage points month-on-month but an increase of 8.26 percentage points year-on-year [9] - From January to May 2025, imports of tetrachloroethylene increased by 11.11% in quantity and 31.35% in value, while exports surged by 91.32% in quantity and 74.90% in value [11] Key Enterprises - The tetrachloroethylene industry in China has a stable competitive landscape, with a few large enterprises dominating the market [13] - Binhai Group leads with an annual capacity of 80,000 tons, while Luxi Chemical has a capacity of 50,000 tons and Dongyue Group integrates its refrigerant supply chain [13][17] - Luxi Chemical's actual production reached 72,000 tons in 2025, while Binhai Group's production was 77,900 tons, reflecting a growth of 0.91% [15][17] Industry Development Trends - Technological innovations are expected to drive the industry towards higher value-added applications, with a focus on reducing environmental impact and improving resource efficiency [19] - Market demand for tetrachloroethylene is anticipated to continue rising steadily, particularly in specialized fields like semiconductor manufacturing [20] - Regulatory policies are promoting environmental transformation in the industry, encouraging companies to adopt greener production processes [21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The basic chemical sector has outperformed the market, with the industry index rising by 1.8% from July 11 to July 18, compared to a 0.7% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index [9][20] - The report highlights significant price increases in TDI, glyphosate, and glufosinate due to supply disruptions and rising demand, particularly in South America [6][31][33] Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints - The basic chemical sector is expected to benefit from supply-side reforms and improved demand due to recent government policies aimed at stabilizing the economy [17] - The report emphasizes the potential for long-term investment in core assets as the profitability of chemical products has likely bottomed out, suggesting a recovery in valuations [17][18] 2. Overall Performance of the Chemical Sector - The basic chemical industry index has shown a year-to-date increase of 10.8%, outperforming both the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices by 5.4% and 4.5%, respectively [20][26] 3. Individual Stock Performance in the Chemical Sector - Among 424 stocks in the basic chemical sector, 251 stocks rose while 162 fell during the reporting week, with notable gainers including Shangwei New Materials (+148.8%) and Dongcai Technology (+33.2%) [29][30] 4. Key News and Company Announcements - A fire at Covestro's TDI plant in Germany has led to significant supply disruptions, creating opportunities for price increases in TDI [31][32] - Glyphosate prices have increased to 25,500 CNY per ton, reflecting a 7.16% month-over-month rise, driven by reduced inventory levels [33] - New regulations on glufosinate are expected to constrain supply, potentially leading to price increases as the market adjusts [34]

Core Viewpoint - The AI Fund, China Europe Responsible Investment Mixed A (009872), reported a profit of 122 million yuan in Q2 2025, with a net value growth rate of 3.73% and a total fund size of 3.341 billion yuan as of the end of Q2 2025 [3][16]. Fund Performance - As of July 18, the fund's unit net value was 0.893 yuan [3]. - The fund's performance over various time frames includes: - 3-month net value growth rate: 15.05%, ranking 34 out of 132 comparable funds [4]. - 6-month net value growth rate: 21.02%, ranking 16 out of 132 comparable funds [4]. - 1-year net value growth rate: 31.32%, ranking 24 out of 132 comparable funds [4]. - 3-year net value growth rate: -0.37%, ranking 42 out of 127 comparable funds [4]. Risk and Return Metrics - The fund's Sharpe ratio over the past three years is 0.2062, ranking 44 out of 129 comparable funds [9]. - The maximum drawdown over the past three years is 40.03%, ranking 52 out of 129 comparable funds, with the largest single-quarter drawdown occurring in Q1 2022 at 23.31% [11]. Investment Strategy - The fund maintained an average stock position of 91.92% over the past three years, compared to a peer average of 86.11% [14]. - The fund reached its highest stock position of 93.71% at the end of Q1 2025, with the lowest being 84.08% at the end of 2020 [14]. Top Holdings - As of the end of Q2 2025, the fund's top ten holdings include: - Xiaomi Group-W - Zijin Mining - Tencent Holdings - CATL - Midea Group - Jiangsu Bank - Dongyue Group - Jinbo Bio - CITIC Securities - China Merchants Bank [19].