人民财讯9月20日电，9月19日，同程旅行与张家界市文旅广体局、张家界荷花国际机场举行了航旅战略 合作签约仪式。根据合作协议，同程旅行将基于平台优势，联合张家界荷花国际机场聚焦张家界旅游核 心客源地，共同开发以武陵源、天门山等张家界自然景观、生态旅游以及土家族苗族特色文化为主题的 航空旅游产品，同时希望通过系列产品的开发带动机场客流量的增长。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the travel demand is expected to increase significantly during the 2025 National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, with a search volume increase of over 20% year-on-year [1] - Flight bookings for both domestic and international routes show a notable recovery, with domestic flight bookings exceeding 3.26 million per day, up 26% year-on-year, and international bookings exceeding 1.16 million, up 15% [2] - High-quality hotel bookings are experiencing a surge, with a year-on-year increase of 58% for popular hotels and over 20% for high-quality hotels during the holiday period [3] Group 2 - The outbound travel market is benefiting from visa-free policies, with significant increases in travel to South Korea, the Middle East, and Africa, with outbound travel numbers up 130% year-on-year [4] - Investment recommendations include focusing on OTA sectors such as Tongcheng Travel and Trip.com Group, as well as companies in the ice and snow industry like Changbai Mountain and Dalian Shengya, and tourism retail companies like China Duty Free Group and Wangfujing [5]

每经AI快讯，9月18日，港股同程旅行(00780.HK)涨超3%，再创历史新高。截至发稿，涨3.33%，报 24.84港元，成交额1.66亿港元。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，维持同程旅行(00780)增持评级。考虑OTA行业竞争格局依然 稳定，且公司通过补贴效率提升等方式维持利润率稳步提升，维持公司25/26/27年经调整归母净利润至 33.11/38.47/44.02亿元人民币(下同)。考虑公司自身成长性和业绩弹性，和相比携程体量，给予2025年 18xPE估值，维持目标市值596亿元人民币，以1HKD=0.9128CNY汇率计算，对应653亿港币，对应目标 价27.88元港币。 国泰海通主要观点如下： 25Q2业绩超预期，酒旅需求维持景气并驱动GMV同比恢复正增长;行业竞争格局稳定，通过营销补贴效 率提升驱动核心OTA利润率继续稳步提升。 业绩简述 25Q2公司实现收入46.69亿元，同比+10%，核心OTA实现收入40.08亿元，同比+13.66%。经调整净利润 7.75亿元/yoy+18%，经调整净利率16.6%/yoy+1.1pct。其中，核心OTA平台营业利润10.70亿/+24.69%， 核心OTA营业利润率26.7%/+2.4pct。业绩超预期，酒旅高景气且GMV增速回正。①本季财报重点关注 1)交通票务增速放缓对收入的拖累 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotai Junan maintains an "overweight" rating for Tongcheng Travel (00780), citing a stable competitive landscape in the OTA industry and the company's ability to enhance profit margins through improved subsidy efficiency [1] Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of 4.669 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10%, with core OTA revenue reaching 4.008 billion yuan, up 13.66% [3] - Adjusted net profit for Q2 2025 was 777.5 million yuan, reflecting an 18% year-on-year growth, with an adjusted net profit margin of 16.6%, up 1.1 percentage points [3][4] - Core OTA operating profit was 1.07 billion yuan, a 24.69% increase, with an operating profit margin of 26.7%, up 2.4 percentage points [3] Market Dynamics - The competitive landscape remains stable, with no significant intensification of competition, as evidenced by a 2.2 percentage point decrease in sales expense ratio [4] - The improvement in marketing efficiency continues to drive profit growth, indicating strong certainty in profit growth despite the competitive environment [4] Growth Outlook - The company maintains adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at 3.311 billion, 3.847 billion, and 4.402 billion yuan respectively [1] - The target market capitalization is set at 59.6 billion yuan, translating to a target price of 27.88 HKD based on an 18x PE valuation for 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Tongcheng Travel (00780) has seen its stock price rise over 3%, reaching a historical high of 24.88 HKD, driven by favorable government policies aimed at boosting service consumption and tourism [1][1]. Company Summary - As of the latest report, Tongcheng Travel's stock is up 3.33%, trading at 24.84 HKD with a transaction volume of 166 million HKD [1]. - Citigroup maintains a "Buy" rating for Tongcheng Travel, setting a target price of 28 HKD [1]. Industry Summary - The Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments issued a notice on September 16, outlining measures to expand service consumption, including attracting more foreign visitors and optimizing student holiday arrangements [1]. - The proposal to establish fixed spring and autumn breaks could lead to a more balanced distribution of tourism demand throughout the year, potentially creating new travel peaks and improving profitability for online travel agencies (OTAs) [1]. - A report indicates that the combined National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday in 2025 will last from October 1 to October 8, which is expected to drive strong tourism demand, particularly for long-distance and outbound travel [1].

Core Viewpoint - Tongcheng Travel (00780) has seen its stock price rise over 3%, reaching a historical high of 24.88 HKD, driven by new policies aimed at expanding service consumption in China [1] Group 1: Company Performance - As of the report, Tongcheng Travel's stock is up 3.33%, trading at 24.84 HKD with a transaction volume of 166 million HKD [1] - The company is expected to benefit from the new policies that may lead to a more balanced distribution of tourism demand throughout the year [1] Group 2: Industry Insights - The Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments issued a notice on September 16, outlining measures to attract more foreign visitors and optimize student holiday arrangements [1] - The potential establishment of fixed spring and autumn breaks could create new travel peaks, enhancing overall tourism demand [1] - Citigroup forecasts strong tourism demand during the combined National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday in 2025, predicting that long-distance and outbound travel will benefit significantly [1] - Citigroup maintains a "Buy" rating for Tongcheng Travel with a target price of 28 HKD [1]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The service consumption in China is significantly lower than in developed countries, currently at approximately 30% compared to 70% in the US, indicating substantial growth potential [1][2] - The new policies aim to enhance service consumption, particularly in the cultural and tourism sectors, with local governments actively improving service quality [1][2] Key Policy Insights - Five major increments in the new policy include: 1. Optimizing student holiday arrangements to explore spring and autumn breaks, benefiting tourism [1][4] 2. Encouraging IP collaborations to promote cross-industry partnerships [1][4] 3. Linking sports events with cultural tourism to boost consumer engagement [1][4] 4. Promoting AI applications in various sectors such as e-commerce and education [1][4] 5. Regulating non-academic training institutions to encourage market-oriented vocational training [1][4] Impact on Specific Sectors - **Tourism and Hospitality**: - The expansion of the visa-free entry policy is expected to significantly boost inbound tourism, particularly benefiting major cities like Beijing and Shanghai, as well as OTA platforms and hotels [3][9][12] - **Cultural and Sports Events**: - The policy encourages the introduction of international sports events and supports local sports activities, which will benefit event organizers and related industries, enhancing investor expectations [1][6] - **Education and Training**: - The new regulations for non-academic training institutions will favor companies like New Oriental and others in the vocational training sector [7][8] Financial and Economic Support - The government plans to utilize central budget investments and local special bonds to support cultural tourism and elderly care facilities, which will attract social capital investment [13] - Financial tools will be employed to increase credit availability, directly benefiting companies involved in consumer lending, such as Chongqing Department Store [13] Additional Considerations - The adjustment of student holiday schedules is anticipated to increase tourism frequency while alleviating congestion during peak seasons [11][12] - The integration of AI in service sectors is expected to enhance operational efficiency and reduce costs, indicating a significant trend in future consumption development [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the travel industry, particularly on Ctrip, with a target price of $82 based on a 20x PE for 2026 N-GAAP OP of 20.851 billion RMB [4]. Core Insights - The global travel market has recovered to pre-pandemic levels, with a significant increase in inbound tourism driven by visa-free policies, showing a 15.8% year-on-year growth in inbound visitors in the first half of 2025 [3][7]. - The hotel industry is facing an oversupply, with a supply growth rate of 11.8% in the first half of 2025, leading to a potential 2-3 year period for inventory digestion [3][11]. - Ctrip is focusing on enhancing hotel efficiency and creating new demand scenarios, such as inbound tourism and performance markets [3][4]. - The importance of membership ecosystems is emphasized, as loyalty programs significantly influence the travel behavior of the new generation of travelers [3][7]. - AI applications in the travel industry are on the rise, with over 64% of consumers having used AI for travel planning, although concerns about data security and decision transparency remain barriers [3][15]. Summary by Sections Global Travel Market - The global travel market has returned to pre-pandemic levels, with online penetration rates continuing to rise. Inbound tourism saw a 15.8% increase in visitor numbers in the first half of 2025, with visa-free visitors growing by 53.9% [3][7]. - The demand for outbound travel is also recovering, with short-haul outbound travel increasing by 38.1% and long-haul by 22.3% [3][7]. Hotel Industry - The hotel industry is experiencing oversupply, with a 11.8% growth in hotel supply in the first half of 2025. Ctrip's CEO suggests that it may take 2-3 years to digest this inventory [3][11]. - Major hotel groups like Huazhu, Jinjiang, and Shoulv are focusing on deepening domestic market operations, with Huazhu making progress in Southeast Asia [3][11]. Ctrip - Ctrip is implementing strategies to help hotels improve efficiency and create new demand scenarios, such as inbound tourism and performance markets [3][4]. - The company is also enhancing its marketing efforts in overseas markets to capture the spending mindset of inbound foreign tourists [4]. Membership Ecosystem - The loyalty programs are increasingly influential among younger travelers, with 15-20% of the younger generation willing to spend more for membership upgrades [7]. AI Applications - AI is being increasingly utilized in the travel industry, with 64% of consumers having used AI for travel planning. However, issues like data security and decision transparency are still significant concerns [15].

Core Viewpoint - Tongcheng Travel (00780) has seen a significant increase in stock price, reaching a new high of 24.04 HKD, driven by favorable government policies aimed at boosting service consumption and tourism [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Tongcheng Travel's stock rose over 4%, currently trading at 23.94 HKD with a transaction volume of 240 million HKD [1] Group 2: Industry Insights - The Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments issued a notice on September 16, outlining measures to expand service consumption, including attracting more foreign visitors and optimizing student holiday arrangements [1] - The notice suggests exploring the establishment of spring and autumn breaks for primary and secondary schools, which would shorten winter and summer vacations, thereby increasing opportunities for travel and service consumption [1] - Citigroup anticipates that if these policies are implemented, there will be a significant increase in long-term family travel [1] - The upcoming Golden Week holiday will last for 8 days, one day longer than last year, leading Citigroup to predict strong tourism demand, particularly for long-distance and outbound travel [1]