Core Viewpoint - Longfor Group reported strong financial performance for 2024, with total revenue of RMB 127.47 billion and net profit of RMB 10.4 billion, highlighting the resilience of its operational and service segments amid a challenging real estate market [1][3] Financial Performance - Longfor's operational and service business generated revenue of RMB 26.71 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.4%, contributing 21% to total revenue [1] - The company achieved a net debt ratio of 51.7% by the end of 2024, with cash on hand amounting to RMB 49.42 billion and a cash-to-short-term debt ratio of 1.63 [1] - The board proposed a final dividend of RMB 0.1 per share, with a total dividend payout of RMB 0.32 per share for the year, representing a payout ratio of approximately 30% [2] Sales and Market Position - Longfor maintained a stable sales figure exceeding RMB 100 billion, ranking among the top tier in the industry, with a total contract sales of RMB 101.12 billion for 2024 [3] - The company reported a sales return rate exceeding 100%, with significant sales in 19 cities across the country [3] Strategic Focus - Longfor aims to balance its revenue structure between development and operational services by 2028, prioritizing debt safety over new investments [3] - The company plans to launch over RMB 160 billion in saleable inventory, with more than 80% located in first- and second-tier cities [4] Operational Insights - Longfor's operational business, excluding tax rental income, reached RMB 13.52 billion, a 4.5% increase year-on-year, with a gross profit margin of 75% [7] - The commercial segment generated rental income of RMB 10.98 billion, with a 7% increase and a significant rise in both sales and foot traffic [9][11] Land Acquisition and Development - In 2024, Longfor acquired land reserves totaling 830,000 square meters, with an average acquisition cost of RMB 13,285 per square meter [5] - The company maintained a cautious investment approach despite a recovering land market, focusing on strategic locations and avoiding aggressive bidding [6] Debt Management - Longfor's financial discipline has led to a reduction in total borrowings to RMB 176.32 billion, down over RMB 30 billion from peak levels, with a significant shift towards operational property loans [22][23] - The average financing cost decreased to an annual rate of 4%, with a loan maturity of 10.27 years, indicating a stable debt structure [22]

Core Viewpoint - Longfor Group emphasizes prioritizing debt safety over incremental investment in its 2024 annual performance report, reflecting a cautious approach amid industry challenges [2][4][10]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Longfor Group achieved a revenue of 127.47 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.4 billion yuan, with a core net profit of 6.97 billion yuan after excluding fair value changes, resulting in a gross margin of 16% [2][4]. - The operational and service segment generated 26.71 billion yuan in revenue, accounting for approximately 21% of total revenue, up from 9% two years ago, contributing around 8 billion yuan to core net profit [4]. Debt Management - As of the end of 2024, Longfor Group's total borrowings amounted to 176.32 billion yuan, a decrease of approximately 16.3 billion yuan from the beginning of the year, with cash on hand at 49.42 billion yuan and a net debt ratio of 51.7% [10][12]. - The company aims to reduce overall debt to around 140 billion yuan by the end of 2025, with a focus on optimizing the financing structure and extending debt maturity [12]. Land Acquisition and Development Strategy - In 2024, Longfor Group acquired nine plots of land in major cities, adding a total construction area of 830,000 square meters, with an equity area of 390,000 square meters, bringing total land reserves to 33.12 million square meters [5]. - The company plans to maintain a steady investment strategy while ensuring debt repayment safety, with expectations of significant sales opportunities in 2025 [5][12]. Future Growth Expectations - Longfor Group's commercial segment is projected to achieve over 10% growth in 2025, driven by ongoing adjustments and upgrades to existing projects and the opening of a new shopping mall [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights Longfor Group's financial performance in 2024, showcasing a revenue of RMB 127.47 billion and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 10.401 billion, with a core profit of RMB 6.97 billion after adjustments [1][2] - The operating and service business revenue reached RMB 26.71 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.4%, with a gross profit margin of 16.0% [1] - The company achieved contract sales of RMB 101.1 billion, with over 90% of sales coming from first- and second-tier cities, and a collection rate exceeding 100% [1] Group 2 - Longfor Group has been focusing on high-tier cities, delivering approximately 100,000 quality housing units across 43 cities in the past year, achieving a customer satisfaction rate of 90% [2] - As of December 31, 2024, the company's total land reserves amounted to 33.12 million square meters, with an average cost of RMB 4,304 per square meter [2] - The land reserves are distributed across various regions, with the Bohai Rim, Western, Central China, Yangtze River Delta, and Southern regions accounting for 34.6%, 27.6%, 15.0%, 13.9%, and 8.9% of the total area, respectively [2]

Financial Performance - Contract sales amounted to RMB 101.12 billion, corresponding to a total sales area of 7.124 million square meters[2] - Revenue reached RMB 127.47 billion, with operating and service revenue increasing by 7.4% year-on-year to RMB 26.71 billion[2] - Profit attributable to the company's owners was RMB 10.40 billion, with core profit after tax at RMB 6.97 billion, resulting in a core profit margin of 6.4%[2] - Total comprehensive income for the year was RMB 11.67 billion, down from RMB 15.68 billion in the previous year[4] - Basic earnings per share were RMB 1.58, while core basic earnings per share were RMB 1.06[2] - Total revenue for the year ending December 31, 2024, was RMB 127,474,948,000, a decrease of 29.5% from RMB 180,736,575,000 in 2023[14] - Adjusted profit for the development segment was RMB 1,317,707,000, down 89.1% from RMB 12,078,240,000 in the previous year[14] - The total adjusted profit for the company was RMB 15,399,594,000, a decrease of 37.2% from RMB 24,528,297,000 in the previous year[17] - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 10,401,171 in 2024, down from RMB 12,850,011 in 2023, a decrease of 19.1%[34] Debt and Liquidity - The net debt ratio stood at 51.7%, with cash on hand amounting to RMB 49.42 billion[2] - Total borrowings decreased by 8.5% year-on-year to RMB 176.32 billion, with an average financing cost of 4.0%[2] - As of the end of 2024, the company's interest-bearing debt decreased by RMB 16.3 billion to RMB 176.3 billion, with an average financing cost reduced to 4.00%[42] - The group’s debt is approximately 86.4% denominated in RMB, with 13.6% in foreign currencies, and all foreign currency borrowings are hedged against exchange rate risks[72] - The group has a cash-to-short-term debt ratio of 1.03 times, indicating a stable liquidity position[74] Assets and Liabilities - Investment properties increased to RMB 210.92 billion, up from RMB 199.75 billion year-on-year[5] - Cash and cash equivalents decreased to RMB 47.95 billion from RMB 59.22 billion year-on-year[5] - Total liabilities decreased to RMB 420,164,974,000 from RMB 463,948,608,000 in the previous year[17] - The company reported a consolidated asset total of RMB 665,641,785,000, down from RMB 700,406,875,000 in 2023[17] - The company’s trade payables and accrued construction costs totaled RMB 40.56 billion in 2024, down from RMB 42.48 billion in 2023[40] Revenue Segments - Revenue from external customers in the development segment decreased to RMB 100,766,610,000, a decline of 35.4% compared to RMB 155,857,211,000 in 2023[18] - The service segment's revenue increased to RMB 13,186,068,000, up 10.4% from RMB 11,943,543,000 in 2023[18] - Revenue from rental income was RMB 13,522,270,000, an increase of 4.5% from RMB 12,935,821,000 in 2023[18] - The company’s smart living services generated revenue of RMB 11.42 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 8%[44] - The property management segment achieved revenue of RMB 11.42 billion, managing a total area of 410 million square meters by year-end[78] Dividends and Shareholder Returns - The board proposed a final dividend of RMB 0.10 per share, totaling an annual dividend of RMB 0.32 per share[2] - The company proposed a final dividend of RMB 688,816,000 for 2024, compared to RMB 1,516,104,000 for 2023[32] Corporate Governance - The board of directors includes nine members, with Chen Xuping serving as both the chairman and CEO, which deviates from the corporate governance code[92] - The company is committed to high standards of corporate governance to enhance performance and company value[87] - The audit committee consists of three independent non-executive directors who reviewed the accounting principles and financial reporting matters[86] Strategic Initiatives - The group has invested over RMB 2 billion in public welfare, benefiting 2.34 million people across the country[48] - All new projects meet the national green building star rating standards, reflecting the group's commitment to low-carbon principles[48] - The group aims to enhance its corporate governance system to ensure high-quality and sustainable development[48] - The group plans to open 11 new shopping malls in 2025, focusing on cities like Hangzhou, Wuhan, and Chongqing, while maintaining a balanced development approach[77] Operational Highlights - The company delivered approximately 100,000 quality housing units across 43 cities in the past year, achieving a customer satisfaction rate of 90%[42] - The commercial segment achieved a rental rate of 97% by the end of 2024, contributing to stable operating profits and cash flow[43] - The average daily foot traffic for the year was 3.28 million visitors[58] - The overall gross profit margin for operations was 75.0%, a decrease of 0.8% year-on-year[54] Land Reserves and Acquisitions - The total land reserve of the group as of December 31, 2024, is 33.12 million square meters, with an equity area of 24.26 million square meters and an average cost of RMB 4,304 per square meter[66] - In 2024, the group acquired a total of 830,000 square meters of new land reserves, with an equity area of 390,000 square meters and an average equity acquisition cost of RMB 13,285 per square meter[66] - The land reserves are distributed regionally, with the Bohai Rim region accounting for 34.6%, the Western region 27.6%, the Central China region 15.0%, the Yangtze River Delta region 13.9%, and the South China region 8.9%[66]

龙湖资料图。 标普惠誉为何先后下调龙湖评级？ 王琳 风云变幻的房地产市场中，曾经的房企优等生也难以独善其身。 3月7日，龙湖集团发布盈利警告公告，2024年，龙湖集团剔除投资物业及其他衍生金融工具 公平值变动影响后的股东应占核心溢利预计录得约35%至40%的下降，2023年这一数据是 113.5亿元，照此计算，2024年这一数据预计为68.1亿元至73.8亿元。 对于下降原因，龙湖集团称，主要由于受房地产行业下行的影响，公司地产开发业务的结算 收入及结算毛利率下降所致。 在此之前的3月5日，标普将龙湖集团的长期发行人信用评级从"BB+"下调至"BB"，同时，标 普将该公司的高级无抵押票据的长期发行评级从"BB"下调至"BB-"。2024年10月，惠誉将龙 湖集团的长期外币发行人违约评级(IDR)、高级无抵押评级及其未偿高级票据评级从"BB+"下 调至"BB"，对IDR的展望为负面。 评级下调反映了评级机构对龙湖集团未来偿债能力和运营状况的担忧，可能进一步增加其融 资成本与市场压力。在房地产行业的下行大势中，龙湖集团努力通过多元化业务布局和降杠 杆策略来应对挑战，尽管相对稳健，但仍难以完全抵御行业整体下滑带来的 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the real estate industry, with a year-on-year increase in land acquisition by major companies [10][11]. Core Insights - The total land acquisition amount for the top 100 real estate companies reached 199.86 billion yuan in January-February 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 26.7% [11]. - The Yangtze River Delta has emerged as the leading city cluster for land acquisition, with the top 10 companies in this region acquiring 51.98 billion yuan worth of land [24]. - Major companies such as China Resources Land, Poly Developments, and China Jinmao topped the list in terms of new value added from land acquisitions, with 46.5 billion yuan, 30.5 billion yuan, and 28.3 billion yuan respectively [13]. Summary by Sections Land Acquisition Rankings - China Resources Land ranked first in land acquisition amount with 23.2 billion yuan, followed by China Jinmao with 12.9 billion yuan and Greentown China with 12.2 billion yuan [3][4]. - The top companies in terms of land area acquired include Hengnan Development Group and Haixing County Xinggang Construction Development, with 1.22 million square meters and 860,000 square meters respectively [3]. Year-on-Year Growth - The report highlights that the total land acquisition amount for key real estate companies has shown a positive year-on-year trend, indicating a recovery in market sentiment [10][11]. - The increase in land acquisition is attributed to local governments actively releasing quality land in core areas, which has boosted companies' willingness to acquire land [11][12]. Special Debt and Land Recovery - The issuance of special bonds for land recovery has accelerated, with Guangdong Province being the first to issue such bonds, amounting to approximately 30.7 billion yuan, primarily aimed at acquiring idle land [14]. - The report emphasizes the expectation that various types of real estate companies will benefit from these initiatives, which are crucial for stabilizing the real estate market [14][20]. Regional Insights - In the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, China Resources Land and other major companies have been active in land acquisition, with significant amounts reported [22]. - The report notes that state-owned enterprises and local government-backed companies remain dominant in land acquisition, while private enterprises are selectively increasing their land reserves in key areas [28].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a target price revised down from HK$17.50 to HK$15.00 [5][9][12]. Core Insights - The company's core profit is expected to decline significantly from RMB 11.35 billion in 2023 to RMB 6.90 billion in 2024, primarily due to a decrease in sales and profit margins, alongside impairment losses [1][11]. - The report highlights that recurring income will support the company's performance in 2024, with a projected growth of 7.4% to RMB 26.7 billion, driven by rental and service income [1][9]. - The company is transitioning towards becoming a rental stock, with expectations that its profitability and financing will continue to be impacted by its real estate development business during 2025-2026 [2][9]. Financial Forecasts - Total revenue is projected to decline from RMB 180.74 billion in 2023 to RMB 120.24 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year decrease of 33.5% [3][10]. - Gross contracted sales are expected to drop from RMB 173.49 billion in 2023 to RMB 101.12 billion in 2024, a decline of 41.7% [10]. - The gross profit margin is anticipated to decrease from 16.9% in 2023 to 15.1% in 2024, reflecting the impact of high land costs and falling property prices [1][10]. Debt and Financing - The company plans to use its land investment budget for deleveraging, aiming to repay approximately 10% of its total debt in 2024 [2][9]. - The report notes that the company has a significant amount of debt maturing in 2025, including RMB 10 billion in bonds and RMB 9.2 billion in syndicated loans [2][9]. Dividend Policy - The company is expected to maintain a dividend payout ratio of around 30%, despite the anticipated decline in core profits [1][2].

Group 1 - Recent market surveys indicate that suppressed rigid housing demand is beginning to be released, maintaining an "outperforming the market" outlook for the domestic real estate industry [1] - The company suggests focusing on real estate firms with strong commercial operational capabilities, such as China Resources Land, New World Development, and Longfor Group [1] - The long-term development of property management stocks is viewed positively, with attention on China Resources Mixc Lifestyle, Greentown Service, Poly Property, Binjiang Service, and Wanwu Cloud [1]

Group 1 - Longfor Group successfully completed the principal repayment and interest payment of the "21 Longfor Expansion MTN001" bond, involving a total amount of approximately 1.03 billion yuan [1] - Following this repayment, all publicly issued debts of Longfor Group due in 2024 have been fully settled [2]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company for the first time [2]. Core Views - The company has a broad future growth potential due to its three main business segments: development, operation, and service, which work in synergy [4]. - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 158.04 billion, 153.30 billion, and 149.14 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -12.6%, -3.0%, and -2.7% respectively [4]. - The company is expected to maintain a low price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 6.8, 6.1, and 5.6 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 [4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has over 30 years of experience, focusing on residential development, commercial investment, and property management across major cities in China [14]. - The company has a stable shareholding structure, with the Wu family being the largest shareholder [15]. Business Performance - In 2023, the company reported a revenue of 180.74 billion yuan, a decrease of 27.9% year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in property development revenue [21]. - The operating and service segments showed resilience, with a revenue increase of 5.7% year-on-year, contributing to 13.8% of total revenue [21]. Financial Health - The company maintains a strong financial position, with a cash-to-short-term debt ratio of 2.25 and a net debt ratio of 56% as of the end of 2023 [24]. - The company has successfully managed its debt structure, with no foreign bonds maturing before the end of 2026 [26]. Commercial Investment - The company has been actively expanding its commercial investment segment, with a focus on high-energy cities, having entered over 30 cities and opened 88 shopping centers by the end of 2023 [30]. - The company plans to open 14 new shopping centers in 2024, with a total expected area of 951,000 square meters [33].