港股公司报告 | 公司点评 龙湖集团（00960） 证券研究报告 成长转型，周期突围——龙湖集团 24 年报点评 事件：24 年公司实现营业收入 1274.7 亿元，同比-29.6%；归母净利润 104.0 亿元，同比 -19.1%；核心利润 69.7 亿元，同比-38.6%；基本每股收益 1.58 元/股，同比-23.7%。 运营业务提供业绩支撑。收入端，24 年公司实现营业收入 1274.7 亿元，同比-29.6%，其 中，开发、运营及服务业务收入分别同比-35.3%、+7.4%，运营及服务业务占营收比重达 21%，较 23 年提升 7.2pct。利润端，24 年公司归母净利润 104.0 亿元，同比-19.1%； 核心利润 69.7 亿元，同比-38.6%；运营及服务业务为公司利润主要贡献来源。公司 24 年 毛利率 16.0%，较 23 年下降 0.9pct；核心权益后利润率 5.5%，较 23 年下降 0.8pct，主 要为营业额、费用、分占合营及联营企业业绩、税金变动的综合影响所致；开发、运营业务 毛利率分别为 6.1%、75.0%，较 23 年分别下降 5.9、0.8pct。24 年公司含资本支 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the real estate industry, with a focus on major players in core cities and a significant increase in land acquisition activities among top companies [10][18][25]. Core Insights - The average premium rate for land transactions reached 17.1% in March, an increase of 6 percentage points from February, indicating a recovery in the land market [12][10]. - The top 10 real estate companies accounted for 75% of the new land value, reflecting a concentration of investment among leading firms [18][23]. - The total new land value for the top 100 companies was 622 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 17.8% [17][19]. Summary by Sections New Land Value Rankings - The top three companies in terms of new land value are China Resources Land (642.2 billion yuan), China Overseas Land (566 billion yuan), and Greentown China (504 billion yuan) [1][5]. - The report lists a total of 100 companies, with significant contributions from major players in the industry [1][5]. Land Acquisition Trends - The report highlights a "head-tail differentiation" in investment, where top companies are aggressively acquiring land while many smaller firms remain cautious [23][25]. - The land acquisition ratio for the top 100 companies is 0.3, indicating a strategic focus on land procurement among leading firms [21][18]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the land market is experiencing a structural recovery, particularly in first-tier and strong second-tier cities, while third and fourth-tier cities are still facing challenges [25][10]. - The competitive landscape is shifting towards larger firms, with increased bidding activity for high-quality land parcels in key urban areas [25][10].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The overall delivery capacity of major real estate companies in China is expected to decrease in 2024 compared to 2023, with nearly 60% of companies experiencing a decline of over 30% in delivery scale, and a median decline of 38% [14] - The central government has increased loan support for "white list" projects to enhance delivery capabilities, with over 5 trillion yuan approved for loans, aiming to deliver 3.73 million housing units by the end of 2024 [13] - The focus of real estate companies is shifting from product design to quality delivery and customer experience, indicating a trend towards a more integrated delivery and service system [17][21] Summary by Sections Delivery Capacity Rankings - The report lists the top 30 real estate companies in China based on their delivery capacity for 2024, with Green City China, China Overseas Property, and China Resources Land leading the rankings [2] Delivery Scale and Performance - The delivery scale of major real estate companies is shrinking, with significant reductions in the number of units delivered compared to previous years, reflecting ongoing market challenges [14][15] - Specific companies such as Country Garden and Sunac China are highlighted for their delivery volumes, with Country Garden delivering approximately 380,000 units [15] Product and Service Integration - The report emphasizes the importance of integrating delivery with service, moving from merely delivering products to enhancing the overall living experience for residents [21][23] - Companies are increasingly focusing on creating community engagement and personalized services to improve customer satisfaction post-delivery [21] Quality of Delivery - The report identifies a trend towards enhancing the quality of both indoor and outdoor delivery, with a focus on functional upgrades and aesthetic improvements [19][20] - Projects that have previously won awards for their product quality are noted for their strong delivery performance, setting benchmarks for high-quality delivery in the industry [22][23]

2024年，龙湖商业出租率稳步提升至97%，收入同步稳增，租金收入109.8亿元，同比增7%。 销售及客流量双位数增长，营业额超730亿元，同比增长16%，日均客流超320万人次/天，同比增长 25%。 2024年，龙湖商业轻重并举，以重带轻、以轻促重，全年新开业11座天街，截至期末，合并分期商场 后，累计运营商场达89座。 2024年，随着购物中心存量规模的扩大,同质化竞争加剧,业态趋同、空间同质化成为行业痛点。行业分 化显著，头部聚集效应明显，收入前十的企业收入总额约占总体的45%,显示出行业集中度进一步提 高。 在空置率高企、租金下行、开发放缓的大势之下，消费需求升级推动业态创新，政策支持与数字化赋能 加速存量改造。2024年，存量改造成为增长点。部分企业通过轻资产输出方式拓展管理规模,头部企业 更聚焦于经济发达、消费市场活力强的高能级城市。 创新无止境 独辟蹊径与一份崭新的成绩单 这是一个创新无止境的年代，当人均收入迈过一万美元之后，从物质到精神的需求跃升，带来是空间 的"富氧"需求，走过看过，满目清新，心神愉悦。对于年轻的一代来说，新的商业、新的空间，已成为 必不可少的生活方式。 这是一份崭新的成绩 ...

[ T able_StockInfo] 2025 年 03 月 31 日 证券研究报告•2024 年年报点评 龙湖集团（0960.HK）房地产 目标价：——港元 持有 （维持） 当前价：10.34 港元 聚焦核心区域，运营业务稳健增长 风险提示：销售或不及预期，利润率或不及预期，商业拓展或不及预期。 | 指标/年度 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元人民币) | 127475 | 104014 | 94242 | 89319 | | 增长率 | -29.5% | -18.4% | -9.4% | -5.2% | | 归属母公司净利润(百万元人民币) | 10401 | 7030 | 7137 | 7167 | | 增长率 | -19.1% | -32.4% | 1.5% | 0.4% | | 每股收益 EPS | 1.51 | 1.02 | 1.04 | 1.04 | | 净资产收益率 | 6.44% | 4.17% | 4.06% | 3.92% | | PE | 6.17 | 9.45 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [1][12]. Core Views - The company's revenue and profit decline in 2024 are primarily due to the development business, while the operational and service segments show steady growth, contributing 70% to gross profit [2][12]. - The company is expected to face a peak in public debt repayment in 2025, but operational loans are anticipated to provide support for repayment [12]. - By the end of 2025, the company's financial pressure is expected to significantly ease, leading to a potential increase in free cash flow and improved investment cycles [12]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, total revenue was 127.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 29%, with a pre-tax profit of 18.7 billion yuan, down 24% year-on-year [2][3]. - The core net profit for 2024 was 6.97 billion yuan, reflecting a 38% decrease year-on-year [2]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 0.96, 1.05, and 1.14 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 9.5, 8.7, and 8.0 [12][3]. Business Segment Analysis - The development business faced a 35% revenue decline in 2024, while operational and service businesses grew, with operational revenue increasing by 5% and service revenue by 10% [2][10]. - The company plans to open 11 shopping centers in 2025, maintaining the same number as in the previous year, indicating stability in the operational segment [11][12]. - The debt scale has been systematically reduced, with a total interest-bearing debt of 176.3 billion yuan at the end of 2024, down 8% from the previous year [12][10]. Valuation Metrics - The current stock price is 9.83 HKD, with a market capitalization of 67.6 billion HKD [4]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is reported at 6.4%, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 63.1% [4][14]. - The projected PE ratios for the upcoming years suggest a potential undervaluation, with the company trading at lower multiples compared to historical averages [12][14].

龙湖集团（00960.HK） 优于大市 开发业务承压，经营性业务稳步增长 证券研究报告 | 2025年04月01日 核心净利-39%。2024 年公司实现营业收入 1275 亿元，同比下降 29.5%；实 现归母净利润 104 亿元，同比下降 19.1%；剔除少数股东损益、投资性物业 和金融衍生品的公允价值变动后的核心净利润 70 亿元，同比下降 38.6%。分 不同业务看，公司物业开发业务收入 1008 亿元，占比为 79%，下降 7pct； 运营及服务业务收入分别为 135、132 亿元，占比分别为 11%、10%，分别上 升 3pct、4pct。 开发业务承压，聚焦核心城市。2024 年公司开发业务收入同比下降 35%，受 市场大势影响仍在调整阶段。公司实现销售面积 712 万平方米，同比下降 34.1%；实现销售金额 1011 亿元，同比下降 41.7%；其中长三角、西部、环 渤海、华南及华中片区销售额分别占比 29%、27%、19%、15%、10%。公司新 增拿地 9 个，总建面 83 万平方米，权益地价 51 亿元。截至 2024 年末，公 司拥有土储合计 3312 万平方米，权益面积 2426 ...

Core Viewpoint - Longfor Group's operational and service business has significantly contributed to its revenue, achieving 26.7 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 21% of total revenue, with expectations to exceed 50% by 2028 [1] Financial Performance - In 2024, Longfor Group reported total revenue of 127.47 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.4 billion yuan [1] - The operational and service business generated 26.7 billion yuan in revenue and contributed 8.1 billion yuan to core net profit [1] Market Strategy - Longfor Group adopts a "defensive and offensive" strategy in response to the real estate market's stabilization, focusing on inventory reduction and quality cash flow [2] - The company achieved a contract return rate exceeding 100% in the previous year and plans to establish a dedicated team for detailed management of various projects [2] Land Acquisition and Development - Longfor Group has a land reserve of 33 million square meters with a relatively low cost of 4,300 yuan per square meter, allowing for flexible pricing strategies [2] - In 2024, the company acquired nine plots of land in key cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Chengdu, with additional acquisitions planned for 2025 [2] Product Development - The company launched a new product line called "Guan Cui," which has received positive market feedback, achieving rapid sales in cities like Chengdu and Shanghai [3] - Longfor Group emphasizes the importance of high-quality housing and community services in its product offerings [3] Revenue Structure Transformation - The operational and service business's revenue share increased to 21% in 2024, driven by collaboration across commercial investment, asset management, property management, and construction services [4] - The commercial segment opened 11 new shopping centers in 2024, achieving a record high occupancy rate of 97% and a 16% year-on-year revenue growth [4] Financial Health and Debt Management - Longfor Group has successfully reduced its interest-bearing debt by over 30 billion yuan from peak levels, with financing costs decreasing to 4% [5] - The company aims to complete its debt structure transformation by 2025, with plans to reduce total debt to approximately 140 billion yuan [5][6]

证券研究报告 龙湖集团 (960 HK) 港股通 经营业务托底，开发业务仍待修复 | 华泰研究 | | | 年报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 3 月 | 30 日│中国香港 | 房地产开发 | 公司发布业绩：24 年实现营收 1275 亿元，同比-29%；核心/归母净利润 70/104 亿元，同比-39%/-19%，符合业绩预告。我们认为公司开发业务短 期内仍将承压，但市场对此已有一定预期，随着经营性业务持续构筑业绩基 本盘，将一定程度上对冲地产业务下行带来的不利影响，维持"买入"评级。 经营性业务稳健增长，发挥压舱石作用 24 年公司经营性业务稳中有进，收入/毛利同比+7%+6%，占比同比+7/26pct 至 21%/70%，成为业绩压舱石。24 年公司旗下商场同店营业额同比+7%（高 于社零增速），整体出租率同比+1pct 至 97%，租金收入同比+7%至 110 亿 元；冠寓租金收入/服务业务收入同比+4%/+10%至 27/132 亿元，均实现稳 健增长。25 年公司计划新开业商场 11 个，对应总开业面积将同比+12%， 有望支持经营性业务利润进 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][8][20] Core Insights - The company is experiencing a decline in performance, but its diversified business segments are showing stable growth, leading to an optimized profit structure [8][9] - The company reported a significant drop in revenue and net profit for 2024, with total revenue of 127.475 billion and a net profit of 10.401 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 29.5% and 19.1% respectively [7][8] - The core net profit for 2024 was 69.7 billion, down 38.6% year-on-year, which was in line with expectations [8] - The company’s real estate settlement revenue decreased by 35% to 100.8 billion, while its operational and service revenue increased by 7.3% to 26.7 billion, contributing to 70% of gross profit [8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The company’s projected revenue for 2025 is 93.681 billion, with a year-on-year decline of 26.5% [7][9] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 5.976 billion, reflecting a significant year-on-year decrease of 42.5% [7][9] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 0.87 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 11.0 [7][9] - The company’s net asset return rate is projected to decline to 3.6% in 2025 [7] Business Performance - The company’s sales for 2024 were 1,011 billion, down 41.7% year-on-year, with a sales area of 7.12 million square meters, a decrease of 34% [8] - The company has adopted a cautious approach to land acquisition, securing only 9 plots for a total of 11.5 billion, a 69% decrease year-on-year [8] - The company’s diversified business segments, including shopping malls and property management, have shown stable growth, with operational service revenue increasing by 7.3% [8] Debt and Financial Health - The company remains in a healthy financial position, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 57.2% and a net debt ratio of 51.7% as of the end of 2024 [8] - The company’s financing cost has decreased to 4.0%, reflecting a 24 basis point year-on-year decline [8] - The company has a long debt maturity profile, with an average term of 10.3 years [8]