Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for new homes and indicates a significant decline in second-hand home transactions year-on-year [2][33]. Core Insights - The real estate sector has seen a 0.2% decline in the week of November 3 to November 7, 2025, ranking 24th among 31 primary industry sectors [9][30]. - New home transaction volume in 20 monitored cities decreased by 38% year-on-year, with a total area of 159 million square meters sold in the week, averaging 22.7 million square meters per day [21][24]. - Second-hand home transactions in 11 monitored cities also fell by 29% year-on-year, with a total area of 186 million square meters sold in the week, averaging 26.6 million square meters per day [24][29]. Industry Overview - **Basic Data**: The real estate sector comprises 107 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 1,233.623 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 1,183.334 billion yuan [3]. - **Relative Index Performance**: The absolute performance over 1 month, 6 months, and 12 months is -1.6%, 16.8%, and -8.9% respectively, while the relative performance is -3.3%, -5.3%, and -23.3% [4]. Policy Developments - Local policies include the implementation of "current housing sales" in Pingjiang County, Hunan, and the promotion of industrialized construction in Guangzhou, aiming for a total output value of 500 billion yuan by 2030 [14][15]. Sales Performance - The report highlights a significant drop in both new and second-hand home sales, with new home sales down 31% week-on-week and second-hand home sales down 6% week-on-week [21][24]. - Cumulative data shows that new home sales in 20 cities have decreased by 11% year-to-date, while second-hand home sales in 11 cities have increased by 7% year-to-date [21][24]. Financing Trends - Most bond issuances in the week were by local state-owned enterprises, with Guang'an Holdings issuing the largest scale of 2 billion yuan [30][31]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong product differentiation and stable rental income from quality commercial real estate, highlighting firms such as Beike-W, Greentown China, and China Resources Land as potential investment opportunities [33].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, highlighting optimism for the "Good House" policy and the revaluation of commercial real estate [3][33]. Core Insights - The real estate market is experiencing significant pressure, with new home sales in 34 key cities dropping by 45% week-on-week and 47% year-on-year in November [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of localized policies, such as credit rating links to pre-sale fund supervision in Fuzhou and tax subsidies in Suzhou, which aim to stimulate market activity [27][30]. - The report identifies potential investment opportunities in commercial real estate and property management, particularly in light of ongoing monetary easing in China [3][33]. Industry Data Summary New Home Sales - New home sales in 34 key cities totaled 158.6 million square meters, a week-on-week decrease of 45.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 46.5% [4][5]. - Sales in first and second-tier cities saw a week-on-week decline of 46.1%, while third and fourth-tier cities experienced a 34.4% drop [4][5]. Second-Hand Home Sales - Second-hand home sales in 13 key cities totaled 98.8 million square meters, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 15.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 30.3% [12][5]. - The cumulative sales for the year reached 50.1 million square meters, showing a slight increase of 1.4% year-on-year [12]. Inventory and Supply - In 15 key cities, 82 million square meters were launched for sale, with a transaction-to-launch ratio of 0.78, indicating a challenging market environment [19][5]. - The total available residential area in these cities was 89.5 million square meters, with a slight week-on-week increase of 0.2% [19]. Policy and News Summary - The National Development and Reform Commission has initiated a digital transformation action plan to promote smart city development and property digitalization [27]. - Localized policies are being implemented, such as Fuzhou's new regulations linking credit ratings to pre-sale fund supervision and Suzhou's tax subsidies for home purchases [27][30]. - The report notes that various cities are relaxing residency requirements and enhancing public housing policies to stimulate demand [27][30]. Company Dynamics - Major real estate companies reported significant declines in sales for October 2025, with Poly Developments down 50.1% and China Overseas Development down 55.1% year-on-year [33]. - Financing activities included China Merchants Shekou providing an 800 million yuan loan guarantee for its subsidiary, and Daxin City reducing the interest rate on its issued bonds to 2.15% [33][36]. - The report highlights stock buybacks by companies such as Shell-W and Greentown Service, indicating a strategic move to enhance shareholder value [37].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4]. Core Views - The report emphasizes that policy measures are being driven by fundamental economic pressures, suggesting that the current policy intensity may exceed that of 2008 and 2014, and is still in progress [4]. - Real estate serves as an early-cycle indicator, making it a key economic barometer for investment [4]. - The competitive landscape in the industry is improving, with leading state-owned enterprises and select mixed-ownership and private companies performing well in land acquisition and sales [4]. - The report continues to favor investments in first-tier and select second- and third-tier cities, which have shown better performance during sales rebounds [4]. - Supply-side policies, including land storage and management of idle land, are crucial areas to monitor, with first- and second-tier cities expected to benefit more [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Current Resident Price Expectations - According to the central bank's survey, the proportion of urban depositors who are pessimistic about housing prices has returned to levels seen in Q3 2024, with optimism below 10% [11]. - In Q3 2025, 9.1% of residents expect prices to rise, while 55.6% expect them to remain stable, and 23.5% anticipate a decline [11]. - The report notes that the "924" policy was introduced during a period of market pessimism, leading to a marginal improvement in confidence, but this has waned over time due to a lack of new policies [11]. 2. Market Review - The Shenwan Real Estate Index decreased by 0.2% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.05 percentage points, ranking 24th among 31 Shenwan primary industries [2]. - New home sales in 30 cities totaled 134.6 million square meters, down 41.6% month-on-month and 47.2% year-on-year [2]. - Second-hand home sales in 14 sample cities totaled 190.2 million square meters, down 8.3% month-on-month and 28.0% year-on-year [34]. 3. Credit Bond Issuance - This week, 12 credit bonds from real estate companies were issued, totaling 10.25 billion yuan, an increase of 5.2 billion yuan from the previous week [3]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on real estate-related stocks due to the ongoing policy-driven recovery and the potential for improved performance in quality real estate companies [4]. - Recommended stocks include major players in both H-shares and A-shares, as well as local state-owned enterprises and property management firms [4].

Group 1 - Kering Group showcased its brands at the 8th China International Import Expo, emphasizing its commitment to quality, sustainability, and cultural heritage under the theme "Creative Legacy" [2] - CEO Luca de Meo highlighted the importance of engaging with Chinese consumers and local industry partners to explore new development opportunities and support sustainable growth in the luxury fashion industry [2][9] - The exhibition design by Gensler utilized natural imagery and sustainable materials, with approximately 50% of the booth materials being reused from the previous expo [4][5] Group 2 - Kering's core brand Gucci presented a collection of vintage silk scarves and hosted interactive workshops with artists, enhancing visitor engagement [8] - Balenciaga showcased its summer collection for the first time after its fashion week debut, while McQueen's custom gowns made their global debut at the expo [8] - Kering launched a new fragrance series from Balenciaga and introduced the Bottega Veneta perfume line to the expo for the first time [8] Group 3 - Kering signed a strategic cooperation memorandum with Shanghai Fashion Week to initiate the "Kering CRAFT Creative Residency Program," aimed at discovering and empowering emerging Chinese creative talents [9] - The program will enhance the brand-building and business operation capabilities of Chinese designers, aligning with Kering's vision of fostering local brands and exploring collaborative opportunities [9] - Kering also established a partnership with China Resources Vientiane Life to implement sustainable practices in shopping centers, integrating China's dual carbon strategy and green building standards [11]

Core Insights - The third quarter of 2025 sees a peak in commercial openings, driven by the "National Day" holiday, with 89 new projects totaling approximately 6.93 million square meters [2][5] - The Eastern China region, particularly Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai, dominates the commercial project openings, accounting for over 80% of the total [5][7] - High-tier cities maintain their market position, while lower-tier cities, especially county-level markets, show increased commercial activity [7][9] Summary by Sections Opening Statistics - A total of 89 commercial projects opened in Q3 2025, with a commercial area of about 6.93 million square meters. September alone accounted for 59 projects, representing 66% of the quarterly total [2] - Among the new openings, 15 projects were renovations of existing properties, contributing approximately 1.37 million square meters [2][14] Regional Distribution - The Eastern region leads with 32% of openings, with Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai contributing significantly [5] - Central and Southern China follow, with Central China having 8 openings and Southern China 15 openings, primarily in Guangdong [5] Market Tier Analysis - High-tier cities account for over 70% of new projects, with first-tier cities at 27%, second-tier at 10%, and a notable activity in fourth-tier cities [7] - County-level commercial projects are becoming more active, with several notable openings in various regions [9] City-Specific Highlights - Hangzhou leads with 8 new projects, followed by Chongqing and Wuhan with 6 each. Notable projects include the Hangzhou Asian Games Village and several large-scale developments in Chongqing [11][12] - Beijing and Shanghai also saw significant openings, focusing on urban renewal and high-end commercial spaces [12][15] Major Developers and Projects - Leading commercial management companies like China Resources, Longfor, and Wanda opened multiple projects, with China Resources launching 6 projects, including several in lower-tier cities [13] - High-profile projects include Shenzhen Bay MixC Phase II and Guangzhou's K11 Select, both featuring innovative designs and a mix of retail and cultural spaces [18][19][20] Renovation Projects - The quarter saw 15 renovation projects, with a total area of approximately 1.37 million square meters, indicating a trend towards upgrading existing properties [14] - Examples include the transformation of previously stalled projects into successful commercial spaces, such as the Hohhot MixC [25]

Core Viewpoint - China Resources Vientiane Life and Kering Group have established a strategic partnership focused on sustainable development, initiating a "Sustainable Development Strategic Cooperation Plan" to promote zero-carbon stores and advocate for sustainable lifestyles [1][3]. Group 1: Partnership and Objectives - The partnership aims to integrate China's "dual carbon" strategy with green building standards, creating a template for sustainable retail stores in China [1][3]. - The collaboration includes a clear short, medium, and long-term cooperation path, focusing on energy efficiency, green electricity application, and carbon management [3]. - The partnership is supported by a joint research and development center established by China Resources Land and Tsinghua University, ensuring innovative and professional practices throughout the project lifecycle [3]. Group 2: Commitment to Sustainability - The partnership responds to national "dual carbon" goals and aims to exceed China's green building standards, establishing a benchmark for international brands in the Chinese market [3]. - The collaboration is expected to provide Kering with a replicable and efficient model for sustainable stores, accelerating the zero-carbon transformation of its brands in China [3]. Group 3: Leadership and Recognition - China Resources Vientiane Life has been recognized for its commitment to responsible development and sustainable practices, being listed in the "China ESG Pioneer 100" for three consecutive years and achieving an "A" MSCI ESG rating [5]. - Kering Group has a strong commitment to sustainability, consistently recognized as an industry leader by various non-financial rating agencies and lists, including being named a top sustainable company in the "Global 100" [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The real estate sector is a crucial asset allocation and investment direction for Chinese households, with stable housing prices being significant for facilitating economic circulation. The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session emphasized promoting high-quality development in real estate, indicating potential policy support [4][48] - There is an anticipated wave of development for high-quality housing due to policy guidance and changes in supply-demand structure, with a focus on core cities and strong land acquisition capabilities [4][48] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.1%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.7%, and the ChiNext Index rose by 0.5%. The real estate sector (Shenwan) fell by 0.7% during the week [4][7] - In the new housing market, 42 key cities recorded a total transaction of 2.43 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 4.8%, but a year-on-year decrease of 41.1% [14][18] - For the month of October, new housing transactions in 42 key cities totaled 8.43 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 34.6% [18][19] Data Tracking New Housing Transactions - In the week of October 25-31, new housing transactions in 42 key cities totaled 2.43 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 41.1% [14] - For October, new housing transactions totaled 8.43 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 34.6% [18] Second-Hand Housing Transactions - In the week of October 25-31, second-hand housing transactions in 21 key cities totaled 2.05 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 23.6% [30] - For October, second-hand housing transactions totaled 7.32 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 21.2% [33] Industry News - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development is promoting a system of selling existing homes to mitigate delivery risks. Additionally, five departments issued a plan to support qualified commercial real estate projects in issuing Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) [45] - Guangzhou has released guidelines for constructing quality housing, emphasizing green construction and energy-efficient appliances [45] - Policy adjustments in housing provident funds have been made, including increasing the maximum ratio of monthly repayments to family income from 55% to 60% in Hainan [45] Company Announcements - In Q3 2025, several companies reported their net profits, with notable figures including China Vanke at -16.07 billion yuan (a year-on-year decrease of 98.6%) and China Merchants Shekou at 1.05 billion yuan (a year-on-year decrease of 11.4%) [48][50] - Financing activities include a loan agreement where Shenzhen Metro Group will provide up to 22 billion yuan to China Vanke [48][50]

Group 1: Housing and Real Estate Developments - Xi'an has initiated the registration and allocation process for 1,149 units of affordable rental housing, as per the guidelines from the local government [1] - China State Construction and Hubei Lian Investment acquired the DX04-0102-6038 land plot in Xihongmen, Beijing, for a base price of 1.904 billion yuan, covering approximately 27,600 square meters with a planned building area of about 63,500 square meters [2] - Yuexiu Property reported a contract sales amount of approximately 12.29 billion yuan in October, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of about 8%, with a sales area of approximately 272,400 square meters, down 42% year-on-year [3] - Agile Group disclosed a total pre-sale amount of approximately 710 million yuan in October, corresponding to a building area of 83,000 square meters, with an average price of about 8,517 yuan per square meter [4] Group 2: Property Management Sector - According to a report from the China Index Academy, the top 50 property service companies added approximately 60.83 million square meters of new contract area in October, indicating continued expansion among leading firms [5] - The average new contract area for these top companies was 1.22 million square meters, with notable growth from companies like China Resources Vientiane Life and Henan Jianye New Life Service, each exceeding 3.9 million square meters in new contracts [5]

Core Insights - The top 50 property service companies in China are expected to add approximately 60.83 million square meters of new contract area by October 2025, with an average of 1.22 million square meters per company [1] - Leading companies such as China Resources Vientiane Life Co., Henan Jianye New Life Service Co., and Greentown Property Service Group Co. are rapidly expanding, with new contract areas exceeding 3.9 million square meters [1] Group 1: New Contract Area - The top three companies by new contract area are China Resources Vientiane Life Co. (640,000 square meters), Henan Jianye New Life Service Co. (504,000 square meters), and Greentown Property Service Group Co. (392,000 square meters) [2] - The total new contract area for the top 50 companies is approximately 60.83 million square meters, with an average of 1.22 million square meters per company [1][2] Group 2: Third-Party Market Expansion - The total third-party market expansion area for the top 50 property service companies is 54.1 million square meters, with an average of 1.08 million square meters per company [6] - The leading companies in third-party market expansion are China Resources Vientiane Life Co. (595,000 square meters) and Henan Jianye New Life Service Co. (500,000 square meters) [6][7] Group 3: Associated Area Analysis - The top 50 companies have a total of approximately 8.7 million square meters of associated area, with an average of 170,000 square meters per company [11] - Companies like Poly Property Service Co., China Overseas Property Management Co., and China Railway Construction Property Management Co. are expected to add over 600,000 square meters of managed area due to support from parent companies [11] Group 4: City Service Bidding - The top five companies in city service bidding for October 2025 include Deep Industry Property Operation Group Co. (49.55 million yuan), New Dazheng Property Group Co. (46.63 million yuan), and Shenzhen Xinghe Zhishan Life Co. (39.48 million yuan) [12] - New Dazheng Property Group Co. notably won a significant contract for airport cleaning services worth 32.45 million yuan [13]

Core Insights - The report from the China Index Academy indicates that by October 2025, the top 50 property service companies will add approximately 60.83 million square meters of contracted area, reflecting continuous expansion among leading firms [1] - The average newly added contracted area per company is 1.22 million square meters [1] - Companies such as China Resources Vientiane Life Co., Henan Jianye New Life Service Co., and Greentown Property Service Group Co. are rapidly expanding, each adding over 3.9 million square meters of contracted area [1]