Market Overview - Global markets experienced turbulence on January 30, with major indices such as Nikkei 225, Hong Kong stocks, and US futures all showing declines. Gold and silver prices plummeted, and Bitcoin saw a significant drop, leading to over 270,000 liquidations in the cryptocurrency market, totaling nearly $1.7 billion [1][2]. A-Shares Performance - A-shares showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index regaining the 4100-point mark, while the ChiNext Index rebounded after hitting a low. However, over 3,800 stocks in the market declined [1]. Sector Performance - CPO and optical communication stocks surged, with companies like Lian Te Technology and Tianfu Communication rising over 11%, and Changfei Optical Fiber hitting the daily limit. Conversely, industrial and precious metals sectors faced significant declines, with over 20 stocks, including Nanshan Aluminum and Tongling Nonferrous Metals, hitting the daily limit down [1]. Precious Metals Market - International precious metals saw a sharp decline, with gold prices dropping by 4% to below $5200 per ounce, marking a daily decrease of over $200. Silver prices fell over 5%, dropping below the $110 mark [1]. Cryptocurrency Market - Major cryptocurrencies continued to decline, with Bitcoin falling over 6% to below $82,300, and Ethereum and SOL dropping over 7%. In the last 24 hours, more than 270,000 traders were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount close to $1.7 billion [2]. Dollar Index - The US dollar index rebounded, rising by 0.44% to 96.58 as of 11:30 AM Beijing time [3]. Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing tensions in the Middle East are impacting global markets. US President Trump announced plans to engage in dialogue with Iran, and the market is closely watching the announcement of the next Federal Reserve Chair, which is expected to be revealed on January 30 [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant increase in copper prices, with the Shanghai copper futures rising by 6% to 108,740 yuan per ton and LME copper exceeding 6% to reach 13,936 USD per ton, marking a new high [1] - Chinese copper stocks have shown strong performance, with notable increases: China Nonferrous Mining (01258) up 7.56% to 18.36 HKD, Jiangxi Copper (00358) up 4.92% to 52.25 HKD, and Minmetals Resources (01208) up 4.39% to 11.65 HKD [1] - Analysts from Huayuan Securities suggest that due to insufficient capital expenditure in copper mining and frequent supply disruptions, the copper supply-demand balance may shift from "tight balance" to "shortage," with potential for copper prices to rise further as the Federal Reserve enters a rate-cutting cycle [1] Group 2 - Galaxy Securities indicates that with macroeconomic positioning becoming more accommodative in both China and the U.S., and the copper-to-gold ratio at an absolute low, the financial attributes of copper are strengthening [1] - The market is transitioning from a loose to a tight balance due to supply mismatches, and a long-term upward trend in copper prices is expected to continue, with price levels anticipated to rise [1]

每经AI快讯，港股铜业股多数走高，截至发稿，中国有色矿业(01258.HK)涨7.56%，报18.36港元；江西 铜业股份(00358.HK)涨4.92%，报52.25港元；五矿资源(01208.HK)涨4.39%，报11.65港元。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant increase in copper stocks, driven by rising copper prices and favorable market conditions [1] - As of January 29, the main copper futures contract in Shanghai surged by 6%, reaching 108,740 yuan per ton, while LME copper rose over 6% to 13,936 USD per ton, marking a new high [1] - Companies such as China Nonferrous Mining (up 7.56% to 18.36 HKD), Jiangxi Copper (up 4.92% to 52.25 HKD), and Minmetals Resources (up 4.39% to 11.65 HKD) experienced notable stock price increases [1] Group 2 - Huayuan Securities indicates that in the medium to long term, insufficient capital expenditure in copper mining and frequent supply disruptions may shift the copper supply-demand balance from "tight equilibrium" to "shortage" [1] - The profit cycle for copper smelting is expected to bottom out against the backdrop of "anti-involution," coupled with the Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting cycle, suggesting potential upward movement in copper prices [1] - Galaxy Securities believes that with macroeconomic positioning in China and the U.S. becoming more accommodative, and the copper-to-gold ratio at an absolute low, the financial attributes of copper are strengthening, leading to a transition from a loose to a tight balance in the market, with expectations of a sustained long-term upward trend in copper prices [1]

Group 1 - The industrial metals sector is expected to enter a golden window in 2026, driven by macroeconomic factors and fundamental demand, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and domestic policies boosting liquidity and demand [1] - Supply constraints are evident due to insufficient long-term capital expenditure, declining ore grades, and frequent mine production cuts, leading to sustained pressure on copper and aluminum supplies [1][5] - Demand remains resilient in traditional sectors while emerging fields like AI data centers and energy storage are experiencing explosive growth, becoming key drivers of marginal demand [1][2] Group 2 - The copper market is characterized by a structural shortage, with refined copper expected to face a shortfall of 380,000 tons in 2026, leading to an upward price trend [1][5] - The aluminum sector is in a tight balance phase, with domestic production capacity nearing its limit and new capacity additions constrained by high costs and power supply issues in regions like Indonesia [2][5] - Demand for aluminum is significantly improving, particularly in transportation and power electronics, with a projected domestic aluminum shortfall increasing from 150,000 tons in 2025 to 1,070,000 tons by 2027 [2][5] Group 3 - The financial attributes of copper are strengthened by the ongoing interest rate cuts, while its commodity attributes are constrained by supply-side tensions [5] - The demand for copper in data centers is projected to reach 268,000 tons by 2026, driven by the growth of AI and energy storage applications [1][24] - The aluminum demand in data centers is estimated at 78,000 tons globally and 20,000 tons domestically by 2026, with aluminum primarily used in structural and electrical applications [39][40] Group 4 - Investment recommendations focus on companies in the copper sector with sustainable growth, including Zijin Mining, Minmetals Resources, and China Nonferrous Mining, while also highlighting aluminum companies with strong dividend yields and profit elasticity [5][52] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring supply chain risks related to bauxite, as the industry remains highly dependent on external sources [5][55]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market showed mixed performance with the Hang Seng Index slightly up by 0.09% while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 1.31%, indicating a divergence in sector performance influenced by geopolitical factors and currency fluctuations [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed up by 0.09% while the Hang Seng Tech Index experienced a decline of 1.31% [1] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (国指) fell by 0.09%, reflecting weakness in the broader market [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - Major technology stocks faced downward pressure, with Baidu dropping by 4%, Xiaomi declining over 2%, and Alibaba falling by over 1% [1] - Gold and silver prices surged to new highs, positively impacting the performance of precious metals stocks such as Lingbao Gold, Shandong Gold, and Zijin Mining, which reached new peak prices [1] - The copper sector saw a significant increase, with China Nonferrous Mining rising by 11.5% [1] - Defense, semiconductor, and Apple-related stocks experienced notable declines [1]

Group 1 - Copper stocks experienced a collective surge in the afternoon trading session, indicating strong market interest [1] - China Nonferrous Mining (01258.HK) saw a significant increase of 12.02%, reaching HKD 16.68 [1] - Wanguo Resources (01208.HK) rose by 11.02%, trading at HKD 5.05 [1] Group 2 - China Gold International (02099.HK) increased by 7.25%, with shares priced at HKD 233.6 [1] - Zijin Mining (02899.HK) experienced a rise of 5.05%, reaching HKD 42.46 [1] - Jiangxi Copper (00358.HK) saw a growth of 4.07%, with shares at HKD 47.06 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Copper stocks experienced a collective surge, with significant gains observed across various companies in the sector, indicating a positive market sentiment despite underlying macroeconomic concerns [1] Group 1: Company Performance - China Nonferrous Mining (01258) rose by 12.02%, reaching HKD 16.68 [1] - Minmetals Resources (01208) increased by 11.02%, trading at HKD 5.05 [1] - China Gold International (02099) saw a rise of 7.25%, priced at HKD 233.6 [1] - Zijin Mining (02899) gained 5.05%, with shares at HKD 42.46 [1] - Jiangxi Copper (00358) climbed by 4.07%, now at HKD 47.06 [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - Macro expectations have cooled, but geopolitical concerns persist, with the U.S. government continuing to pressure the Federal Reserve [1] - Market pricing for interest rate cuts remains conservative, and inflation data has not exceeded expectations, while unemployment rates have decreased [1] - The resilience of the U.S. economy is still evident, despite weak short-term supply and demand characteristics [1] Group 3: Copper Price Dynamics - Global copper inventory has increased to 1 million tons, indicating a supply-demand imbalance [1] - After adjusting around the 100,000 mark, copper prices rebounded, primarily influenced by geopolitical factors and gold price trends [1] - Guangzhou Futures suggests that while the logic driving copper price increases is weakening, the fragile supply of copper mines and rigid demand from emerging sectors support a solid price floor, indicating limited adjustment space [1]

广州期货认为，当下驱动铜价上涨逻辑有所松动，但铜矿供应脆弱+新兴领域带来的刚性需求，以及战 略资源属性愈发强化，铜价底部依旧坚实，调整空间相对有限，倾向于震荡蓄势后延续涨势。 铜业股午前集体走强，截至发稿，中国有色矿业(01258)涨12.02%，报16.68港元；五矿资源(01208)涨 11.02%，报5.05港元；中国黄金（600916）国际(02099)涨7.25%，报233.6港元；紫金矿业（601899） (02899)涨5.05%，报42.46港元；江西铜业（600362）股份(00358)涨4.07%，报47.06港元。 消息面上，正信期货表示，宏观预期情绪有所降温，但地缘担忧仍存，尽管美国政府持续施压美联储， 但市场对于降息定价较为保守，同时通胀数据暂未超预期，失业率回落，美国自身经济韧性仍存。产业 端来看，虽然远期的供需预期暂难证伪，但近段弱现实特征延续，全球库存进一步增加至100万吨。铜 价在10万关口调整后再度反弹，主要还是受地缘以及金价指引，价格高位震荡为主。 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights that copper prices are experiencing high-level fluctuations amidst inventory accumulation, with short-term price adjustments expected to be limited due to the financial attributes of copper supported by rising gold prices. The supply-demand balance for copper may shift from tight equilibrium to shortage in the medium to long term, driven by insufficient capital expenditure in copper mines and frequent supply disruptions. The report suggests monitoring companies such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Jiangxi Copper, and others [5] - For aluminum, the report notes that both alumina and aluminum prices are under pressure due to high inventory levels. The short-term outlook for aluminum prices is expected to remain stable amidst high demand, particularly in the air conditioning and consumer goods sectors [5] - Lithium demand remains strong despite seasonal trends, with lithium carbonate prices entering an upward cycle driven by supply-demand reversal. The report recommends focusing on companies with high self-sufficiency in lithium resources [5] - Cobalt prices are expected to continue rising due to tight raw material supply, with the report suggesting companies like Huayou Cobalt and others for investment [5] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The report provides insights into macroeconomic indicators, including the U.S. core PCE price index and unemployment claims, which align with expectations [9] - Key announcements include Zijin Mining's completion of the second phase of the Jilong Copper Mine, significantly increasing its production capacity [10] 2. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 6.03% compared to the index's 0.84% rise [11] - The report lists the top-performing stocks in the sector, highlighting significant movements in various sub-sectors [11] 3. Valuation Changes - The report notes that the TTM PE for the non-ferrous metals sector is 33.82, with a change of 1.79, while the PB is 4.18, reflecting a significant premium over the broader market [20][23]