Core Viewpoint - The collaboration between 3SBio and Pfizer for SSGJ-707 marks a significant milestone in the Chinese biopharmaceutical industry, with a total upfront payment of $1.25 billion and potential milestone payments reaching up to $4.8 billion, indicating strong market confidence in the drug's potential [1][2]. Group 1: Licensing Agreement and Financial Implications - 3SBio has granted Pfizer global development, production, and commercialization rights for SSGJ-707 outside of mainland China while retaining rights for mainland China and granting Pfizer commercialization options [1]. - The agreement includes a non-refundable upfront payment of $1.25 billion and potential milestone payments of up to $4.8 billion based on development, regulatory approvals, and sales [1]. - Additionally, 3SBio will receive a tiered sales royalty based on product sales in the licensed regions [1]. Group 2: Clinical Development and Pipeline - SSGJ-707 has shown significant anti-tumor activity and good safety in Phase II clinical trials, positioning it as a potential best-in-class therapy [2]. - The drug is currently undergoing four Phase II clinical studies in China, targeting various cancers including PD-L1 positive non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and advanced gynecological tumors [2]. - Future catalysts for SSGJ-707 include Pfizer's overseas clinical progress, advancements in domestic Phase III trials, and data releases from major conferences like ASCO [2]. Group 3: Existing Product Portfolio and Growth Potential - 3SBio's existing core products are mature and leading in their respective segments, with expected stable growth [2]. - Key products include Terbinafine, which is the company's top-selling product, and Erythropoietin, which has new indications covered by insurance, opening up significant market potential [2]. - The company is also focusing on oral paclitaxel and other promising candidates in its pipeline, indicating a robust growth strategy [3]. Group 4: Financial Forecast and Market Valuation - The projected peak sales for SSGJ-707 are estimated at $8.5 billion, with a 10% sales royalty contributing to a market value of approximately 35 billion [4]. - The domestic peak sales are estimated at $5 billion, contributing an additional 15 billion in market value [4]. - The total target market capitalization is around 80 billion, with significant adjustments to net profit forecasts for 2025-2027, reflecting strong growth expectations [4].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the licensing agreement between 3SBio and Pfizer for the development and commercialization of SSGJ-707, a bispecific antibody targeting PD-1 and VEGF, with an upfront payment of $1.25 billion and potential milestone payments of up to $4.8 billion [1][2] - SSGJ-707 has shown promising clinical results in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) with high objective response rates (ORR) and disease control rates (DCR), indicating its best-in-class potential [2] - The drug has received breakthrough therapy designation from the National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) in China and IND approval from the FDA, with ongoing clinical studies for other cancers [2] Group 2 - The company expects steady growth in its core products, including Tezspire and Mandi, in 2024, along with expansion in indications and formulations [3] - The company has established four new collaborations in 2024, enhancing its commercial footprint and product portfolio [3] - Revenue forecasts for the company have been adjusted upwards, with projected total revenues of 18.244 billion, 12.752 billion, and 14.731 billion yuan for 2025-2027, and corresponding net profits of 8.575 billion, 3.413 billion, and 4.102 billion yuan [3]

Group 1 - The company signed a licensing agreement with Pfizer for the PD1×VEGF dual antibody SSGJ707, granting Pfizer global rights (excluding mainland China) for development, production, and commercialization, with an upfront payment of $1.25 billion and potential milestone payments of $4.8 billion [1] - The $1.25 billion upfront payment sets a record for Chinese innovative drug licensing out, indicating strong market validation for the PD1×VEGF dual antibody sector [1] - The clinical development speed of SSGJ707 in the U.S. is expected to be rapid due to Pfizer's robust clinical development platform and commercialization system [1] Group 2 - The company has four mid-to-late stage clinical assets (IL17, IL1β, IL4R, IL5 monoclonal antibodies), each projected to generate over $1 billion in revenue, with IL17 expected to commercialize in 2025 [2] - The company forecasts revenue growth from 2025 to 2027, estimating revenues of 10.201 billion, 11.494 billion, and 13.153 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.0%, 12.7%, and 14.4% respectively [2] - The company anticipates net profit growth during the same period, projecting net profits of 2.345 billion, 2.648 billion, and 3.027 billion yuan, with growth rates of 12.2%, 12.9%, and 14.3% respectively [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][9] Core Views - The company has signed a licensing agreement with Pfizer for the PD1×VEGF dual antibody SSGJ707, receiving an upfront payment of $1.25 billion, which is the largest for a Chinese innovative drug license-out, along with potential milestone payments of $4.8 billion and double-digit royalties on net sales [4][6] - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth of 12% to 14% from 2025 to 2027, with projected revenues of 102.01 billion, 114.94 billion, and 131.53 billion yuan respectively [6] - The net profit forecast for the same period is 23.45 billion, 26.48 billion, and 30.27 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 12.2% to 14.3% [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company is projected to have operating revenues of 7,836 million yuan in 2023, increasing to 10,201 million yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 14% in 2023 and 12% in 2025 [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise from 1,549 million yuan in 2023 to 2,345 million yuan in 2025, with a significant increase of 35% in 2024 [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to grow from 0.65 yuan in 2023 to 0.98 yuan in 2025 [2] Market Position and Prospects - The PD1×VEGF dual antibody market is expected to grow significantly, with SSGJ707 showing promising clinical data and a strong partnership with Pfizer, which enhances the clinical development speed in the U.S. [6] - The company has a robust pipeline with four mid-to-late stage monoclonal antibodies, including IL17, which is expected to be commercialized in 2025, indicating a strong potential for revenue generation [6] Valuation Metrics - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 28.5 in 2023 to 18.9 in 2025, indicating an improving valuation as earnings grow [2] - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to decline from 3.2 in 2023 to 2.4 in 2025, reflecting a more attractive valuation over time [2]

5月23日恒生指数上涨0.24%，南向资金全天合计成交金额为963.65亿港元，其中，买入成交476.13亿港 元，卖出成交487.52亿港元，合计净卖出金额11.39亿港元。具体来看，港股通（深）累计成交金额 352.18亿港元，买入成交161.92亿港元，卖出成交190.25亿港元，合计净卖出金额28.33亿港元；港股通 （沪）累计成交金额611.47亿港元，买入成交314.21亿港元，卖出成交297.27亿港元，合计净买入金额 16.94亿港元。 成交活跃股方面，今日上榜个股中，南向资金成交金额最多的是小米集团-W，合计成交额58.61亿港 元，腾讯控股、阿里巴巴-W成交额紧随其后，分别成交41.27亿港元、38.56亿港元。以净买卖金额统 计，净买入的个股共有8只，美团-W净买入额为8.42亿港元，净买入金额居首，该股收盘股价上涨 0.66%，建设银行净买入额为6.23亿港元，信达生物净买入额为4.12亿港元。净卖出金额最多的是盈富 基金，净卖出23.24亿港元，该股收盘股价上涨0.25%，腾讯控股、小米集团-W遭净卖出15.65亿港元、 6.53亿港元。 今日上榜个股中，美团-W、信达生物、阿里巴巴 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the overseas pharmaceutical industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [3][6]. Core Insights - A significant collaboration has been established between Sanofi and Pfizer regarding SSGJ-707 (PD-1/VEGF dual antibody), with an upfront payment exceeding $1.25 billion and potential total payments reaching $4.8 billion, including milestone payments and a double-digit percentage sales share [3][7]. - The Hang Seng Healthcare Index increased by 6.83%, outperforming the Hang Seng Index by 6.44 percentage points [6]. Summary by Sections 1. Overseas Pharmaceuticals - Sanofi and Pfizer's collaboration on SSGJ-707 includes global development rights, with Sanofi receiving an upfront payment of $1.25 billion and potential total payments of up to $4.8 billion [3][7]. - Kelun Biotech's TROP2 ADC has received acceptance for a new indication application, targeting HR+ HER2- breast cancer patients [3][7]. - Innovent Biologics' CD19 monoclonal antibody has been approved for the treatment of relapsed/refractory diffuse large B-cell lymphoma in China [3][7]. - The report highlights the approval of BMS's TYK2 inhibitor for a new indication and a collaboration between Roche and Orionis for small molecule drugs [4][8]. 2. Overseas Social Services - Ctrip's Q1 2025 revenue increased by 16% to 13.9 billion yuan, with a non-GAAP operating profit of 4 billion yuan, maintaining a profit margin of 29% [12]. - The report maintains a target price of 590 HKD for Ctrip, with a "Buy" rating [12]. 3. Overseas Education - The education index rose by 1.4%, outperforming the Hang Seng National Enterprises Index by 0.7 percentage points [16]. - The report suggests focusing on vocational education companies, particularly China Oriental Education, due to a rebound in training demand [18].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][9] Core Views - The company has signed a licensing agreement with Pfizer for the PD1×VEGF dual antibody SSGJ707, receiving an upfront payment of $1.25 billion, which is the largest for a Chinese innovative drug license-out, along with potential milestone payments of $4.8 billion and double-digit royalties on net sales [4][6] - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth of 12% to 14% from 2025 to 2027, with projected revenues of 102.01 billion, 114.94 billion, and 131.53 billion yuan respectively [6] - The company is anticipated to see a significant acceleration in domestic revenue due to multiple late-stage clinical assets, including IL17 monoclonal antibody expected to commercialize in 2025 [6] Summary by Sections Financial Forecasts - Projected operating revenue (in million yuan): 7,836 (2023A), 9,108 (2024A), 10,201 (2025E), 11,494 (2026E), 13,153 (2027E) with growth rates of 14%, 16%, 12%, 13%, and 14% respectively [2] - Expected net profit attributable to shareholders (in million yuan): 1,549 (2023A), 2,090 (2024A), 2,345 (2025E), 2,648 (2026E), 3,027 (2027E) with growth rates of -19%, 35%, 12%, 13%, and 14% respectively [2] - Earnings per share (in yuan): 0.65 (2023A), 0.87 (2024A), 0.98 (2025E), 1.10 (2026E), 1.26 (2027E) [2] Market Position and Development - The PD1×VEGF dual antibody market is validated, with significant clinical results from competitors enhancing the outlook for SSGJ707 [6] - The company’s collaboration with Pfizer is expected to accelerate clinical development in the U.S. due to Pfizer's robust clinical and commercialization capabilities [6] Valuation Metrics - Projected P/E ratios: 28.5 (2023A), 21.2 (2024A), 18.9 (2025E), 16.7 (2026E), 14.6 (2027E) [2] - Projected P/B ratios: 3.2 (2023A), 2.9 (2024A), 2.4 (2025E), 2.0 (2026E), 1.7 (2027E) [2]

Group 1: Innovation in China - China has transitioned from a follower to a leader in innovation, playing an increasingly important role in global industrial transformation [1] - According to the 2024 Global Innovation Index, China ranks 11th globally, the only middle-income economy in the top 30, improving one position from 2023 [1] - Notable advancements include the B2-W robotic dog by Yushu Technology and BYD's world record in electric vehicle charging speed, showcasing China's technological prowess [1] Group 2: Pharmaceutical Industry Developments - Recently, 3SBio signed an exclusive licensing agreement with Pfizer for the PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody SSGJ-707, valued at over $6 billion, with a record $1.25 billion upfront payment [2] - This agreement signifies a shift for Chinese innovative pharmaceutical companies from imitation to global leadership, enhancing industry collaboration models [2] - The trend of Chinese pharmaceutical companies utilizing the License-out model for global expansion is becoming prominent, with AstraZeneca's CEO warning that Europe is losing its leading position in pharmaceutical innovation to China [2] Group 3: International Collaborations - Chinese companies are increasingly engaging in international collaborations, as seen with Bai Li Tianheng's $8.4 billion licensing deal for an ADC drug with Bristol-Myers Squibb [3] - As of 2024, China completed 94 License-out transactions in innovative drugs, totaling $51.9 billion, a 26% year-on-year increase [3] - In the first quarter of 2025, there were 41 License-out transactions amounting to $36.93 billion, setting a new historical record for the same period [3] Group 4: Global Impact of Chinese Innovation - China's large population and unique disease spectrum make it an indispensable part of global pharmaceutical innovation [4] - Pfizer's collaboration with Guardant Health for liquid biopsy testing in China exemplifies the international partnerships driving clinical development and research [4] - The ongoing international cooperation is crucial for the globalization of Chinese pharmaceutical innovation, enhancing its international influence [4] Group 5: Future Outlook - The Chinese pharmaceutical industry is moving from "scale accumulation" to "value creation," with a focus on innovation and global competitiveness [5] - Continuous improvement in innovation quality and deepening international cooperation are leading to a new round of value reassessment in the industry [5] - Investors are encouraged to focus on innovative companies with global competitiveness to capitalize on the benefits of China's pharmaceutical globalization [5]

Core Insights - The report highlights a positive shift in fiscal data, indicating an improvement in economic conditions and policy direction, with tax revenue growth returning to positive territory for the first time this year [6][9]. - The report emphasizes the recovery of domestic markets for specific companies, particularly in the medical sector, with significant growth potential in overseas markets [14][21]. Summary by Sections Total Research - Fiscal data released on May 20, 2025, shows a year-on-year tax revenue increase of 1.9% in April, marking the first month of positive growth this year [6]. - Non-tax revenue growth slowed to 1.66%, the lowest in nearly a year, indicating a significant easing of local government financial pressures [7]. - Land transfer revenue saw a 4.27% increase, the highest growth rate since 2021, suggesting a normalization in land sales [7]. Expenditure Side - General fiscal expenditure increased by 5.8% in April 2025, significantly above the planned target of 4.4% for the year, indicating strong fiscal spending [8]. - Government fund expenditures surged by 45%, the highest growth rate since 2022, reflecting a normalization of government spending [8]. Economic Recovery - The report suggests that the ongoing "wide fiscal" policy is crucial for driving economic recovery, with improvements in the business environment for enterprises [9]. - The anticipated acceleration in fiscal spending, particularly following the April 25 Politburo meeting's directives, is expected to further boost economic activity [9]. Company Insights: Mindray Medical (300760.SZ) - The company is poised for a domestic market recovery in 2025, with a projected revenue of CNY 367.26 billion in 2024, reflecting a 5.14% increase [14]. - The company plans to distribute dividends of CNY 6.79 billion and CNY 17.10 billion for 2024 and 2025, respectively, with a payout ratio of 6% and 65% [14]. - The overseas market is performing well, with the in-vitro diagnostics (IVD) segment showing a revenue increase of 10.82% [15]. Company Insights: Lifesun Pharmaceutical (002393.SZ) - The company received over CNY 300 million in dividends from its subsidiary, enhancing its financial position [18]. - Lifesun's revenue for 2024 is projected at CNY 13.36 billion, a 15.88% year-on-year increase, despite a decline in net profit due to adjustments in its marketing strategy [20]. - The company is focusing on a dual strategy of industrial operations and capital management to drive growth [20]. Company Insights: 3SBio (01530.HK) - The company has signed an agreement with Pfizer for the global development and commercialization of its PD-1/VEGF dual-specific antibody, SSGJ-707, which could yield up to USD 60.5 billion in milestone payments [21]. - SSGJ-707 has shown promising results in clinical trials, with plans for further studies in various cancer treatments [22]. - The company maintains a strong growth outlook, with projected net profits of CNY 23.28 billion, CNY 26.12 billion, and CNY 29.38 billion for 2025-2027 [21].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has authorized Pfizer for the global development, production, and commercialization rights of SSGJ-707 outside of mainland China, receiving a non-refundable upfront payment of $1.25 billion, the largest in China's BD history. The agreement also includes potential milestone payments of up to $4.8 billion and a double-digit percentage sales share based on product sales in authorized regions [7] - The company is expected to achieve a peak sales value of $8.5 billion for SSGJ-707, contributing approximately 35 billion RMB to market value based on a 20x PE after discounting. The domestic peak sales are projected at 5 billion RMB, contributing around 15 billion RMB to market value. The existing business is expected to generate over 2 billion RMB in profit, corresponding to a market value of 30 billion RMB [7] - The company has raised its net profit forecasts for 2025-2026 from 2.63 billion RMB and 2.87 billion RMB to 9.91 billion RMB and 4.47 billion RMB, respectively, with an expected net profit of 5.17 billion RMB in 2027 [7] Financial Projections - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023A: 7,836 million RMB - 2024A: 9,108 million RMB (up 16.24% YoY) - 2025E: 19,229 million RMB (up 111.13% YoY) - 2026E: 13,174 million RMB (down 31.49% YoY) - 2027E: 14,885 million RMB (up 12.98% YoY) [1] - Net profit projections are as follows: - 2023A: 1,549 million RMB - 2024A: 2,090 million RMB (up 34.93% YoY) - 2025E: 9,908 million RMB (up 373.98% YoY) - 2026E: 4,474 million RMB (down 54.85% YoY) - 2027E: 5,169 million RMB (up 15.54% YoY) [1] - The latest diluted EPS projections are: - 2023A: 0.65 RMB - 2024A: 0.87 RMB - 2025E: 4.13 RMB - 2026E: 1.87 RMB - 2027E: 2.15 RMB [1]