Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the express delivery industry [8]. Core Insights - The express delivery industry is expected to experience a "de-involution" phase, with significant policy catalysts anticipated in the upcoming months. The transition from the off-peak to peak season is expected to enhance the pricing power of express companies [2][11]. - The pricing increase duration is projected to be between 2 to 4 months, with a price increase of 0.06 to 0.30 yuan per ticket expected during the peak season. The profit per ticket is anticipated to improve by 0.01 to 0.10 yuan in Q4 [2][11]. - The average profit elasticity for e-commerce express delivery is expected to reach double digits, with second-tier express companies showing even more significant profit elasticity [2][11]. Summary by Sections Event Description - The report discusses the recent meeting of the State Post Bureau, which emphasized the need to combat "involution" in the express delivery sector. It addresses three main questions: the timing and sustainability of the current "de-involution," the profit elasticity for core enterprises, and the tools available for this process [6]. Pricing Dynamics - The report analyzes historical pricing trends, indicating that the current "de-involution" phase may be catalyzed by policy changes, with pricing increases expected to last longer than in 2024 but shorter than in 2021. The report references past data to illustrate potential outcomes [11][20]. Profit Elasticity - The report provides a detailed analysis of profit elasticity for major express companies, projecting that if the industry begins to raise prices in August and continues until December, the net profit for companies like Zhongtong, Yunda, and Shentong could reach 95.8 billion, 40.6 billion, and 17.4 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding profit elasticities of 6.5%, 12.7%, and 27.9% [20][21]. Tools for "De-involution" - The report identifies two main strategies for achieving "de-involution": regulatory measures to curb price wars and encouraging mergers and acquisitions among leading companies to optimize competition. The acquisition of Danbird Logistics by Shentong Express is highlighted as a significant step towards improving market dynamics [25][26]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests actively seizing opportunities presented by the "de-involution" phase, recommending companies such as YTO Express, Shentong Express, Zhongtong Express, Jitu Express, and Yunda [21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the express delivery industry [1] Core Insights - The express delivery industry is experiencing a trend of "anti-involution," leading to a revaluation of its value [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of regulatory actions in stabilizing the industry and improving profitability [3] - Short-term price improvements are expected, with potential for further increases during peak seasons [3] Summary by Sections 1. Review of 2021's "Anti-Involution" - In 2021, the express delivery industry saw a significant policy push to protect courier rights, leading to price increases and improved profitability [3][19] - The average price per ticket for the "Tongda" system increased by approximately 0.6 yuan from the low point in August 2021 to January 2022 [3] - By Q4 2021, YTO Express reported a net profit of 1.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 202% [3] 2. Current Industry Dynamics - After 2023, the industry has re-entered a phase of price competition due to increased capacity and market share strategies, leading to profitability nearing historical lows [3][39] - The National Postal Administration has clearly opposed "involution-style" competition, indicating a regulatory environment similar to that of 2021 [3][65] - The report suggests monitoring regulatory developments in key production areas like Yiwu and Guangdong for potential price adjustments [3] 3. Short-term and Long-term Outlook - Short-term price improvements are anticipated, particularly in traditionally low-price cities, with potential for broader price increases in peak seasons [3][69] - The report forecasts a shift from price wars to value competition, which could enhance long-term profitability for leading express companies [3][69] - Investment recommendations include focusing on A-shares such as Shentong Express, YTO Express, and Yunda Express, as well as H-shares like Jitu Express and ZTO Express [3] 4. Financial Performance Metrics - In Q1 2025, the net profit per ticket for major companies like Zhongtong, YTO, Yunda, and Shentong fell close to or below historical lows [50] - The report highlights significant cash flow pressures, with some companies experiencing cash flow performance worse than the bottom of 2021 [50] - The report provides elasticity calculations indicating that price increases could significantly enhance profitability for express companies [70]

Group 1 - UBTECH announced its fifth equity financing since its IPO, aiming to raise approximately HKD 24.73 billion by issuing about 30.16 million new H-shares at HKD 82.00 per share, which is a discount of about 9.14% from the closing price on July 21, 2025 [1] - The total amount raised by UBTECH, including the IPO, has reached HKD 55.82 billion, corresponding to approximately 13.85% of the company's total share capital post-financing [1] Group 2 - GoerTek submitted a prospectus to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange for its subsidiary, GoerTek Microelectronics, aiming for a listing on the main board, marking its second attempt after a previous application lapsed on January 20, 2025 [2] - GoerTek Microelectronics holds a 4.3% market share in the global sensor market, ranking fourth, and a 43.0% share in the acoustic sensor market, ranking first [2] Group 3 - Xiechuang Data announced plans for an IPO in Hong Kong to enhance its international strategy and overseas financing capabilities, focusing on IoT smart terminals and data storage devices [3] - The company, which was listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in July 2020, currently has a market capitalization of approximately RMB 27.51 billion [3] Group 4 - Dongyang Sunshine Pharmaceutical's absorption merger plan was approved with over 99% support at a shareholder meeting, marking a significant step in its listing process, with plans to officially list on August 7 [4] - This merger represents the first case of an H-share absorption merger and privatization listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, avoiding new share issuance while achieving asset integration [4] Group 5 - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,130.03, with a gain of 0.54% on July 22 [5] - The Hang Seng Tech Index and the National Enterprises Index also saw increases of 0.38% and 0.39%, closing at 5,606.83 and 9,075.60 respectively [5]

Group 1: Market Developments - Hong Kong Stock Exchange will lower the minimum price fluctuation for stocks starting August 4, 2025, following successful market rehearsals and regulatory approvals [1] - The Hang Seng Index's ADR closed at 24,987.99 points, down 6.15 points or 0.02% [3] Group 2: Index Adjustments - The Hang Seng Index announced changes to the calculation method of the Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug Selection Index, effective from the index review on June 30, 2025 [2] Group 3: Company Earnings - Cathay Pacific reported a 23.3% year-on-year increase in passenger numbers, carrying approximately 2.9 million passengers in June 2025 [8] - China Longgong expects a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, estimated between RMB 590 million and RMB 665 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 29% to 45% [11] - Meitu Company anticipates a 65% to 72% year-on-year growth in adjusted net profit for the first half of 2025 [10] - Hengtou Securities expects a net profit of approximately RMB 239 million for the first half of 2025, a significant increase from RMB 53.87 million in the same period last year [14] - Huiri Group forecasts a consolidated profit of approximately HKD 250 million for the first half of 2025, up from HKD 37 million in the previous year [15] - Harbin Electric anticipates a net profit of approximately RMB 1.02 billion for the first half of 2025, a substantial increase from RMB 523 million in the same period last year [21] Group 4: Strategic Initiatives - Multiple departments released implementation details for cross-border asset management pilot business in Hainan Free Trade Port, allowing foreign investors to invest in various financial products [6] - Dongyangguang Jiangsu Pharmaceutical and Dongyangguang Pharmaceutical's merger agreement was approved by shareholders, with the new entity expected to be listed on August 7, 2025 [13] - Global New Materials International's acquisition of Merck's surface solutions business was approved by a special shareholder meeting, with a transaction value of EUR 665 million [17] Group 5: Industry Trends - GGII reported that China's power battery installation capacity reached approximately 288.1 GWh in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 44% [5] - The key product DB-1310 from InnoCare Pharma has received fast track designation from the FDA for treating advanced non-small cell lung cancer [20]

Core Viewpoint - As of July 18, 160 stocks reached their 52-week highs, with notable performances from China New Economy Investment (00080), Aoyuan Group Equity (02905), and Zhong An Holdings Group (08462) showing high growth rates of 288.89%, 55.28%, and 50.00% respectively [1][2]. Summary by Category 52-Week High Performers - China New Economy Investment (00080) closed at 0.440, with a peak price of 0.700, achieving a growth rate of 288.89% [2]. - Aoyuan Group Equity (02905) closed at 0.218, with a peak price of 0.250, achieving a growth rate of 55.28% [2]. - Zhong An Holdings Group (08462) closed at 0.221, with a peak price of 0.228, achieving a growth rate of 50.00% [2]. - Other notable performers include Hualian International (00969) with a growth rate of 40.13% and Zhongke Bio (01237) with a growth rate of 37.25% [2]. Additional High Performers - Wanma Holdings (06928) closed at 0.550 with a growth rate of 30.43% [2]. - Lepu Biopharma-B (02157) closed at 7.940 with a growth rate of 24.54% [2]. - Other stocks with significant growth include ZhiJianYueDong (06860) at 17.14% and China Jindian Group (08281) at 17.12% [2]. 52-Week Low Performers - The document also lists stocks that reached their 52-week lows, with XI Ernan CO-U (09311) showing a decline of 16.10% [6]. - Other notable declines include XI Ernan CO (07311) at -12.62% and Haotian International Construction Investment (01341) at -5.70% [6].

Group 1 - Major express delivery companies have removed the option for users to set "fire hydrant" as a delivery point in their WeChat mini-programs due to violations of fire safety laws [1][2] - Seven out of eight major express companies have corrected their practices, with only Cainiao Express yet to comply fully [1] - Companies like JD Express and SF Express have implemented warnings in their systems to inform users about the safety hazards of using "fire hydrant" as a delivery location [1][2] Group 2 - Some companies still retain options for "water meter box" and "electric meter box" in their delivery preferences, which may also pose safety risks [2] - Customer service representatives from various companies have indicated that delivery personnel are trained to avoid placing packages in unsafe locations, and will refuse requests to deliver to fire hydrants [3] - If customers insist on using "fire hydrant" for delivery, some companies will remind them of the safety risks, while others may allow for complaints if the delivery is not made as requested [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the transportation industry [8] Core Insights - The instant retail market in China is expected to exceed 700 billion yuan by 2025, accounting for over 5% of the country's physical network retail sales [2][5] - The shift in consumer behavior from bulk purchasing to "small quantity, multiple times" is driven by smaller family structures and a faster-paced lifestyle, which enhances the demand for instant retail [5][23] - Instant retail is anticipated to drive growth in instant logistics, benefiting companies like SF Holding, and the deployment of smart delivery lockers is also expected to gain traction [2][5] Summary by Sections Instant Retail Emergence - Instant retail is experiencing explosive growth, with major players like JD and Alibaba investing heavily in this sector [15][19] - The transition from distant e-commerce to near-field retail reflects a strong consumer demand for instant gratification [16][23] Opportunities in Transportation and Logistics - The growth of instant retail is expected to stimulate the logistics sector, with a projected increase in online takeaway market size to approximately 1.7 trillion yuan by 2025, representing about 30% of China's dining consumption [43][48] - Instant delivery orders are projected to grow by 18% year-on-year, reaching 48.3 billion orders in 2024, driven by the expansion of flash warehouses and the need for efficient delivery solutions [49][52] Travel Chain Insights - Domestic passenger volume is showing a stable increase, with a 4% year-on-year rise in the week of July 11, while international passenger volume increased by 16% [64] - The average domestic ticket price has seen a slight decline of 6.8% year-on-year, indicating pressure on short-term revenues despite improving demand [62][64] Maritime and Logistics Developments - The maritime sector is witnessing a rebound, with the average VLCC-TCE rate rising by 9.7% to $27,000 per day, driven by active cargo demand in the Middle East [29][30] - The logistics sector is focusing on addressing "involution" in the express delivery market, with a 16.6% year-on-year increase in express delivery volume, indicating robust industry growth [6][20]

Core Insights - The data indicates significant trading volume increases for various companies, suggesting heightened investor interest and potential market movements [1][2][3][4][5] Group 1: Companies with Notable Volume Increases - 阳光能源 (00757) reported a volume ratio of 2.35, indicating strong trading activity [2] - 长城汽车 (02333) had a volume ratio of 2.21, reflecting increased investor engagement [2] - 郑煤机 (00564) showed a volume ratio of 1.92, suggesting a notable rise in trading [2] Group 2: Additional Companies with Increased Trading Activity - 万国数据-SW (09698) recorded a volume ratio of 1.83, indicating significant market interest [2] - 映恩生物-B (09606) had a volume ratio of 1.78, reflecting heightened trading activity [2] - 超盈国际控股 (02111) reported a volume ratio of 1.71, suggesting increased investor focus [2] Group 3: Companies with Moderate Volume Ratios - 中国能源建设 (03996) had a volume ratio of 1.70, indicating a solid level of trading activity [2] - 亚信科技 (01675) reported a volume ratio of 1.60, reflecting moderate investor interest [2] - 金宝通 (00320) showed a volume ratio of 1.53, suggesting a rise in trading volume [2] Group 4: Companies with Lower Volume Ratios - 中国水务 (00855) had a volume ratio of 1.52, indicating stable trading activity [2] - 广汽集团 (02238) reported a volume ratio of 1.52, reflecting consistent investor engagement [2] - 凯莱英 (06821) showed a volume ratio of 1.52, suggesting steady trading interest [2]

Core Viewpoint - Several courier companies allow recipients to set delivery points to fire hydrants, which violates the Fire Protection Law and poses public safety risks [1][6][8] Group 1: Courier Company Practices - Multiple courier companies, including Shentong and Yunda, have options in their WeChat mini-programs that allow users to select fire hydrants as delivery points [4][6] - The practice of placing packages in fire hydrant boxes has been reported, raising concerns about the accessibility of firefighting equipment during emergencies [3][7] - Some companies have also allowed recipients to choose other potentially hazardous locations, such as electrical meter boxes and distribution rooms, increasing fire safety risks [6] Group 2: Legal and Safety Implications - According to the Fire Protection Law, any individual or organization must maintain fire safety and protect firefighting facilities, making the courier companies' actions illegal [5][8] - Legal experts emphasize that courier companies must amend their mini-program settings to comply with the law, or they may face penalties from relevant authorities [8] - The actions of courier companies not only compromise public safety but also hinder firefighting efforts, which could have severe consequences in emergencies [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry has been exposed for a long-standing practice of "rounding up" charges, which is illegal and harms consumers, similar to issues seen in other sectors like markets and sanitary products [1][3][4]. Group 1: Industry Practices - The practice of "rounding up" in the express delivery sector has been ongoing for years, with many companies admitting to this behavior [5][7]. - A recent evaluation found that half of the eight major express companies engaged in "rounding up" during weight-based billing [4][5]. - Complaints about this practice have been recorded since at least 2020, indicating it is not a new issue [7][9]. Group 2: Financial Implications - The "rounding up" rule allows express companies to charge for "air weight," significantly increasing their profits without corresponding costs [16][18]. - With an estimated 500 billion packages handled annually, even a small increase in charges can lead to substantial profits, potentially exceeding hundreds of millions [16][18]. - The average additional charge per package, when applied to a large volume, can result in significant revenue for companies, highlighting the economic motivations behind this practice [16][20]. Group 3: Regulatory Context - New national standards for express services were introduced in December 2023, which require accurate weight measurement and billing, yet many companies have not complied [14][20]. - The "rounding up" practice is deemed illegal under existing consumer protection laws, which require transparency in pricing [21][22]. - The ongoing use of such practices reflects a lack of accountability and responsibility within the industry, potentially leading to a decline in consumer trust [21][24]. Group 4: Consumer Impact - Complaints related to express delivery services have surged, with a significant increase in issues reported, including disputes over shipping costs [22][24]. - The rise in complaints indicates a growing dissatisfaction among consumers, which could threaten the long-term viability of companies relying on such practices [22][24].