Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [6]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 3.887 billion CNY in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.6%, and a net profit of 181 million CNY, up 24.1% year-on-year [1]. - The overseas goat milk powder segment showed significant growth, with a 65.7% increase in revenue to 483 million CNY, accounting for 25.9% of total goat milk powder revenue [2]. - The company is focusing on optimizing sales expenses and improving net profit margins, with a net profit margin of 4.6% in H1 2025, up 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The company anticipates continued strong growth in overseas goat milk powder sales and is developing its nutrition products as a second growth avenue [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company reported revenues of 3.887 billion CNY and a net profit of 181 million CNY, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 5.6% and 24.1% [1]. - The gross profit margin for H1 2025 was 41.9%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points, primarily due to the lower margin from the newly acquired cheese business [3]. Product Performance - Revenue from cow milk powder, domestic goat milk powder, and nutrition products in H1 2025 was 961 million CNY, 1.381 billion CNY, and 156 million CNY, with year-on-year changes of -14.9%, -8.9%, and +7.0% respectively [2]. - The newly added cheese business generated 479 million CNY in revenue [2]. Market Outlook - The company expects domestic goat milk powder revenue to improve in H2 2025 as inventory adjustments are completed, and policies stimulate demand [4]. - The overseas goat milk powder business remains a key growth driver, with significant sales increases in core regions such as the Middle East and North America [2][4]. Profitability and Valuation - The company forecasts net profits of 299 million CNY, 357 million CNY, and 410 million CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 13x, 11x, and 10x [4].

Market Overview - The retail market size for infant formula in China was 161.9 billion yuan in 2018, with a projected decline to 136.7 billion yuan by 2024, reflecting a negative growth trend in recent years [2] - The market is expected to recover slightly in 2025, with a forecasted growth of 5.2% to reach 143.8 billion yuan [2] Market Segmentation - In 2024, the market segmentation for maternal and infant products shows that infant formula accounts for 50.4% of the total market, followed by maternal and infant cleaning products at 19.4% and infant skincare at 9.8% [2][3] Sales Channels - In the first four months of 2025, the overall sales of infant formula across all channels grew by 2.3%, with online channels experiencing a significant increase of 12.3%, while offline channels saw a decline of 1.4% [4] - Specific offline channels such as brand specialty stores and maternal and infant stores reported substantial growth rates of 49.5% and 48.7%, respectively [5] Company Performance - Companies like健合集团 (Jianhe Group) and 澳优乳业 (Aoyou Dairy) reported revenue and profit growth in their infant formula segments for the first half of 2025, with Jianhe Group's revenue increasing by 5.2% to 70.2 billion yuan and Aoyou's revenue rising by 5.6% to approximately 38.87 billion yuan [8][10] - Jianhe Group's infant nutrition business saw a 2.9% increase in revenue, while Aoyou's self-owned brand infant formula business generated approximately 28.26 billion yuan in revenue [8][10] Market Trends - The infant formula market is undergoing significant changes, with a shift towards high-end and ultra-high-end products despite overall market demand shrinking [12] - The report indicates that the market is expected to enter a new growth phase due to factors such as a rebound in birth rates and supportive government policies, with a projected growth rate of around 5% for the infant formula retail market in 2025 [13] Consumer Behavior - There is a noticeable trend of consumption upgrading in the infant formula market, with consumers willing to pay higher prices for quality products, particularly among the younger generation [14] - The proportion of consumers purchasing infant formula priced above 300 yuan increased to 26% in 2024, up from 21% in 2023 [14]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to several companies including China Feihe, Huazhu, and others, while Budweiser APAC is rated as "Neutral" [1]. Core Insights - The report indicates a slight rebound in spot costs for essential consumer goods, with most indices showing an increase, while futures indices generally declined [35]. - The overall trend in the consumer goods sector reflects a mixed performance, with some categories experiencing cost increases while others face declines [8][35]. Summary by Category Beer - The spot cost index for beer increased by 0.39% month-on-month, while the futures index decreased by 6.06%. Year-to-date changes show a decline of 4.17% for spot and 6.16% for futures [36][13]. - Glass prices initially rose but later fell, with month-on-month changes of +0.3% for spot and -13.9% for futures [12]. Seasonings - The spot cost index for seasonings decreased by 0.16% month-on-month, while the futures index fell by 5.93%. Year-to-date changes are -1.76% for spot and -6.01% for futures [37]. - Domestic soybean prices have increased due to supply contraction, while imported soybeans remain weak [16]. Dairy - The spot cost index for dairy products increased by 0.7% month-on-month, while the futures index decreased by 1.44%. Year-to-date changes are -3.2% for spot and -2.11% for futures [38]. - Fresh milk prices have declined to 3.02 yuan/kg, with various factors contributing to price pressures [19]. Instant Noodles - The spot cost index for instant noodles increased by 1.3% month-on-month, while the futures index decreased by 2%. Year-to-date changes are -3.01% for spot and -4.21% for futures [39]. - Palm oil prices have risen, impacting overall costs [23]. Frozen Foods - The spot cost index for frozen foods increased by 1.15% month-on-month, while the futures index rose by 0.97%. Year-to-date changes are -1.83% for spot and -2.74% for futures [40]. - Vegetable prices have shown significant fluctuations due to seasonal demand [27]. Soft Drinks - The spot cost index for soft drinks increased by 0.78% month-on-month, while the futures index decreased by 5.63%. Year-to-date changes are -4.99% for spot and -8.6% for futures [41]. - PET prices are stable to weak, reflecting changes in demand and inventory levels [31].

Core Viewpoint - Aoyou Dairy Co., Ltd. reported a resilient growth in revenue and profit for the first half of 2025, with significant contributions from its international business and nutrition products [1][5][6]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Aoyou achieved revenue of approximately 3.887 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 5.6% [1] - EBITDA reached about 398 million RMB, reflecting a growth of 29.7% [1] - Net profit attributable to equity holders was approximately 181 million RMB, up by 24.1% [1] International Market Growth - Aoyou's overseas milk powder sales surged by 65.7%, reaching approximately 483 million RMB [6] - The Middle East remains the largest overseas market, with a revenue increase of 54.2% [6] - North America saw a remarkable revenue growth of over 138.7%, becoming the second-largest source of overseas revenue [7] Nutrition Products Development - The nutrition products segment achieved a revenue growth of 7.0%, expanding into international markets [8] - The company launched several new functional products that gained significant consumer attention [8] Brand and Market Position - Aoyou's own brand milk powder business generated approximately 2.826 billion RMB, with a 3.1% increase in sheep milk powder sales [9] - The market share of Aoyou's sheep milk powder rose by 2.8 percentage points to 30.4% [9] - Aoyou's cow milk powder market share stabilized, with significant growth in e-commerce sales [10] Operational Efficiency - The company improved its sales and distribution expense ratio by 3.8% through enhanced digital marketing strategies [11] - Inventory turnover days decreased by 20 days, indicating improved supply chain efficiency [11] Research and Innovation - Aoyou hosted an international seminar on goat milk, enhancing its authority in the field [12] - The company launched four new sheep milk raw materials, with three achieving global commercial viability [13] Future Outlook - Aoyou remains confident in its market position and plans to strengthen its second growth curve while focusing on research and innovation [14]

Core Insights - Aoyou Dairy Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of approximately 3.887 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.6% [1] - The company's EBITDA reached approximately 398 million yuan, showing a significant increase of 29.7% year-on-year [1] - Net profit attributable to equity holders of the parent company was approximately 181 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 24.1% [1] Brand Performance - Aoyou's own brand milk powder business generated approximately 2.826 billion yuan in revenue, with the goat milk powder segment growing by 3.1% year-on-year [1] - The company's market share for goat milk powder increased by 2.8 percentage points to 30.4% as of June 30 [1] - Aoyou has maintained over 60% market share in China's imported infant goat milk powder market for seven consecutive years, with sales volume and revenue share reaching 84% in 2024 [1] International and Nutritional Business Growth - The international business and nutritional products have become significant growth drivers for the company [1] - Aoyou's international business saw explosive growth, with revenue from Jiabei Aite in overseas markets increasing by 65.7% to approximately 483 million yuan [1] - The growth in international markets is attributed to strategic breakthroughs in the Middle East, North America, and the CIS, with notable progress in channel expansion, product innovation, and brand building [1][2] Nutritional Products Expansion - The nutritional products segment achieved a revenue growth of 7.0% year-on-year and successfully expanded into overseas markets [2] - The To B segment, particularly Jinqi Biological, improved fermentation processes and stability, leading to a revenue contribution increase to 24% through strategic partnerships [2] - The To C segment launched seven functional products, including G13 growth capsules and Aiyisen Shouhu PRO, during the first half of the year [2]

2025 年 8 月 28 日│中国香港 食品 证券研究报告 澳优 (1717 HK) 佳贝艾特海外实现高增,利润率改善 公司公布 25H1 业绩：公司 25H1 收入 38.9 亿，同比+5.5%，归母净利 1.8 亿，同比+40.5%。收入端，25H1 公司婴配粉业务收入同比-3.8%，其中羊 奶粉收入同比+3.1%，牛奶粉收入同比-14.9%，公司核心大单品佳贝艾特在 国内市场仍有承压（25H1 收入同比-8.9%），但在海外市场的销售顺利推 进（25H1 收入同比+65.7%），持续巩固全球羊奶粉销量与销售额第一的市 场地位。展望来看，公司坚持国际化市场战略，羊奶粉作为引领公司业绩增 长的核心业务，有望延续成长态势，同时中国国内生育政策等有望加速落地， 刺激国内婴配粉需求回暖，公司业绩有望持续改善，上调至"增持"评级。 25H1 羊奶粉业务表现亮眼，牛奶粉业务有所承压 分产品，25H1 婴配粉/奶酪、私人品牌及其他/营养品实现收入 28.3/9.1/1.6 亿，同比-3.8%/+51.6%/+7.0%。婴配粉业务中，25H1 羊奶粉/牛奶粉分别 实现收入 18.6/9.6 亿，同比+3.1%/-14. ...

Core Viewpoint - Aoyou's international and nutrition businesses have become the second growth engine for the company, showing robust performance in the first half of 2025 with significant revenue and profit growth [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Aoyou achieved revenue of approximately RMB 38.87 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.6% [1]. - EBITDA reached approximately RMB 3.98 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 29.7% [1]. - Profit attributable to equity holders of the parent company was approximately RMB 1.81 billion, up 24.1% year-on-year, indicating sustained revenue and profit growth [1]. Group 2: International Business Growth - Aoyou's international business saw explosive growth, with revenue from the overseas market increasing by 65.7% to approximately RMB 4.83 billion [5]. - The Middle East remains the largest overseas market for Aoyou, with a revenue increase of 54.2% [7]. - North America experienced a revenue increase of over 138.7%, becoming the second-largest revenue source for Aoyou [7]. - The Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) market contributed stable revenue growth with a year-on-year increase of 33.8% [7]. Group 3: Nutrition Business Development - Aoyou's nutrition business achieved a revenue growth of 7.0% year-on-year, successfully expanding into overseas markets [8]. - The To B segment saw significant improvements in the stability of probiotic fermentation processes, with revenue contributions from strategic partnerships and e-commerce channels [8]. - The To C segment launched seven new functional products, which received positive consumer feedback [8]. Group 4: Brand and Market Position - Aoyou's own brand milk powder business generated approximately RMB 28.26 billion in revenue, with the goat milk powder segment growing by 3.1% [13]. - The market share of Aoyou's goat milk powder increased by 2.8 percentage points to 30.4% [13]. - Aoyou's cow milk powder business stabilized, with significant growth in e-commerce sales [13]. Group 5: Supply Chain and Operational Efficiency - Aoyou completed the strategic acquisition of the remaining 50% stake in Amalthea Group B.V., enhancing its supply chain advantage in goat milk products [14]. - The company implemented a digital can code system to improve product freshness and transparency, which may impact short-term sales but supports long-term growth [11]. - Sales and distribution expense ratios improved, with a 3.8% year-on-year decrease due to enhanced marketing efficiency [15]. Group 6: Research and Innovation - Aoyou hosted the "Future of Goat Milk" international seminar, enhancing its authority in the field of goat milk formula [16]. - The company launched four new goat milk raw materials, with three achieving global commercialization [17]. - Aoyou received multiple awards for its research and product innovations, reinforcing its commitment to scientific advancement [17].

Core Viewpoint - Aoyou Dairy's half-year performance shows steady growth in revenue and profit, driven by strategic control measures and a dual-channel marketing approach [1][2][3] Financial Performance - Aoyou achieved revenue of approximately 3.887 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.6% - EBITDA reached about 398 million yuan, up 29.7% year-on-year - Net profit attributable to equity holders was approximately 181 million yuan, reflecting a 24.1% increase year-on-year [1] International Market Expansion - Aoyou's international business, particularly the goat milk powder brand Kabrita, saw a revenue increase of 65.7% to about 483 million yuan - The Middle East remains the largest overseas market, with a revenue growth of 54.2% - North America experienced a significant revenue increase of 138.7%, becoming the second-largest revenue source for Aoyou [2] Nutritional Products Growth - The nutritional products segment grew by 7.0% year-on-year, with successful expansion into overseas markets - The subsidiary Jinqi Biotechnology improved its probiotic fermentation process and achieved significant channel breakthroughs [3] Operational Efficiency - Aoyou launched an internal code system to reduce traditional promotional expenses and enhance digital marketing efficiency - The company improved global supply chain efficiency, resulting in a 20-day reduction in inventory turnover days - The self-owned brand milk powder business generated approximately 2.826 billion yuan in revenue, with goat milk powder market share increasing by 2.8 percentage points to 30.4% [4] Strategic Acquisitions - Aoyou plans to complete the acquisition of the remaining 50% stake in the Dutch goat cheese company Amalthea Group B.V. by October 2024, enhancing its supply chain advantage and expanding its product line [5] Future Outlook - Aoyou's strategy aligns with market demands, focusing on dual domestic and international development to achieve stable growth - The company is expected to enhance its sustainable development capabilities through brand effects, scale advantages, and a global supply chain [6]

Core Viewpoint - Aoyou (1717.HK) has successfully developed its international and nutrition businesses as a second growth engine, achieving steady overall performance in the first half of 2025 with significant revenue and profit growth [1][3]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Aoyou reported revenue of approximately RMB 38.87 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.6% - EBITDA reached approximately RMB 3.98 billion, up 29.7% year-on-year - Profit attributable to equity holders of the parent company was approximately RMB 1.81 billion, reflecting a 24.1% year-on-year growth [1][3]. International Business Growth - Aoyou's international business experienced explosive growth, with revenue from the overseas market increasing by 65.7% to approximately RMB 4.83 billion - The Middle East market remains the largest overseas market for Aoyou, with a revenue increase of 54.2% - North America saw a revenue increase of over 138.7%, becoming the second-largest revenue source for Aoyou [3][6][7]. Nutrition Business Development - The nutrition business achieved a revenue growth of 7.0% year-on-year and successfully expanded into overseas markets - The To B segment saw significant improvements in the fermentation process and stability of probiotics, contributing to a revenue increase - The To C segment launched several new functional products that gained popularity among consumers [7][8][10]. Market Position and Brand Strength - Aoyou's own brand milk powder business generated approximately RMB 28.26 billion in revenue, with the goat milk powder business growing by 3.1% - The market share of Aoyou's goat milk powder increased by 2.8 percentage points to 30.4% - Aoyou's cow milk powder business stabilized, with significant growth in e-commerce sales [12][14][15]. Strategic Initiatives - Aoyou has implemented a digital can code system to enhance product freshness and transparency, laying a solid foundation for sustainable growth - The company has also focused on improving operational efficiency and reducing sales and distribution costs, achieving a 3.8% decrease in the sales and distribution expense ratio [10][15][16]. Research and Innovation - Aoyou has strengthened its research capabilities, hosting international conferences and launching new products based on scientific research - The company received several awards for its innovative products and research achievements, enhancing its reputation in the industry [17][19][20]. Future Outlook - Despite uncertainties in the macro environment and a declining trend in the infant formula market, Aoyou remains confident in its market position and future development - The company aims to strengthen its second growth curve and enhance management efficiency through innovation and research [21].

Core Viewpoint - The infant formula industry is experiencing a rebound in performance despite a backdrop of reduced market demand and intensified competition, with several companies reporting growth in both revenue and profit for the first half of 2025 [1][9]. Group 1: Company Performance - Health and Nutrition Group (健合集团) reported a revenue increase of 5.2% to RMB 7.02 billion and a net profit growth of 4.6% in the first half of 2025, reversing the decline seen in 2024 [2]. - The three main business segments of Health and Nutrition Group all showed revenue growth, with Adult Nutrition and Care (ANC) at RMB 3.44 billion (up 5.9%), Infant Nutrition and Care (BNC) at RMB 2.50 billion (up 2.9%), and Pet Nutrition and Care (PNC) at RMB 1.08 billion (up 8.6%) [2]. - Aoyou Dairy (澳优乳业) achieved a revenue of approximately RMB 3.887 billion, a 5.6% increase, and a net profit of RMB 181 million, up 24.1% for the same period [6]. - Aoyou's own brand infant formula business generated approximately RMB 2.826 billion, with a 3.1% growth in goat milk formula [6]. Group 2: Market Trends - The sales of infant formula in mainland China grew by 10.0%, significantly outpacing the overall market's retail growth of 0.2% [4]. - The market share of Health and Nutrition Group in the ultra-premium infant formula segment increased from 12.9% to 15.9%, reaching a historical high [4]. - The infant formula market is expected to see a growth rate of around 5% in retail market size by 2025, driven by a rebound in birth rates and supportive policies [11]. - The implementation of a new subsidy policy for families with children under three years old is anticipated to provide structural benefits to the infant formula market [11][12]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior - There is a noticeable trend of consumption upgrading in the infant formula market, with consumers willing to pay higher prices for high-quality or specialized products [12]. - The proportion of consumers purchasing infant formula priced above RMB 300 increased to 26% in 2024, up from 21% in 2023 [12]. - The lower-tier cities and rural markets are showing significant consumption upgrades, releasing potential in the down-market segment and contributing to the expansion of the high-end and ultra-high-end infant formula market [12].