Group 1 - The overall profitability of the company is under temporary pressure due to market channel adjustments and the expansion of low-margin new businesses, leading to a downward revision of revenue and profit forecasts for the years 2025-2027 [1] - The company's revenue forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted from 7.83/8.24/8.62 billion to 7.49/7.90/8.26 billion, and the net profit forecast has been revised from 300/360/430 million to 240/270/320 million [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025-2027 has been lowered from 0.17/0.20/0.24 to 0.13/0.15/0.18, with a current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14/12/10 times based on the closing price of HKD 1.96 on February 9, 2026 [1] Group 2 - The domestic milk powder market continues to face challenges, while overseas markets are leading growth, with a significant increase in revenue from overseas markets, particularly in the Middle East, North America, and the CIS [2] - The company expects a decline in domestic goat and cow milk powder business in 2025, but anticipates improvement in 2026 as domestic channels become more streamlined [2] - The company remains optimistic about future market developments and plans to continue expanding in the Middle East and other channels like Walmart in the U.S. to create a clear growth blueprint [2] Group 3 - The company has achieved significant recognition in the milk powder sector, with its brand being recognized as the top-selling nutritional milk powder for three consecutive years [3] - The approval of a new strain of probiotics for infant use marks a significant milestone for the company, enhancing its core technological capabilities and supporting the industrialization of "Chinese bacteria" [3] - The company aims to solidify its market position and expand its growth curve through consumer-centric strategies and research innovation, aspiring to become the most trusted formula milk and nutrition health company globally [3]

Group 1 - The overall profitability of Ausnutria (01717) is expected to face temporary pressure due to market channel adjustments and the expansion of low-margin new businesses, leading to a downward revision of revenue and profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [1] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted from 7.83/8.24/8.62 billion to 7.49/7.90/8.26 billion, while net profit forecasts have been revised from 300/360/430 million to 240/270/320 million [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025-2027 have been lowered from 0.17/0.20/0.24 to 0.13/0.15/0.18, with a current P/E ratio of 14/12/10 times based on the closing price of HKD 1.96 on February 9, 2026 [1] Group 2 - The domestic milk powder market continues to face challenges, with a decline in the birth rate impacting growth; however, the overseas milk powder market is showing significant growth, particularly in the Middle East, North America, and the CIS regions [2] - In the first half of 2025, Ausnutria's milk powder business experienced a temporary reduction in shipment volumes due to system upgrades and inventory adjustments, leading to a forecasted decline in domestic sheep and cow milk powder business for the year [2] - The company remains optimistic about future growth, planning to expand its presence in the Middle East and continue developing offline channels like Walmart in the U.S. to create a diversified growth engine [2] Group 3 - The infant formula segment has seen success, with Haipinokai being recognized as the top-selling nutritional milk powder for three consecutive years, while Ausnutria's sheep milk powder brand, Jia Bei Ai Te, has gained recognition for its innovative marketing strategies [3] - The approval of a new strain of probiotics for infants by the National Health Commission marks a significant milestone for Jinqi Biotechnology, enhancing its reputation and technological capabilities in the infant nutrition sector [3] - The company aims to solidify its market position and expand its growth trajectory by focusing on consumer needs and leveraging research and innovation to achieve its vision of becoming the most trusted formula milk and nutrition health company globally [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The domestic milk powder market continues to face challenges, while overseas markets are expected to drive growth [3] - The company has experienced a decline in domestic sales due to a decrease in newborn population and competitive pressures, but there is optimism for recovery in 2026 [3] - The company is focusing on expanding its overseas market presence, particularly in the Middle East and North America, to create a diversified growth engine [3] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is identified as Ausnutria Dairy Corporation Ltd (1717.HK) with a market capitalization of HKD 34.70 billion [1] Market Trends - In 2025, the birth rate in China dropped to 5.63‰, with a total of 7.92 million newborns, reflecting a 17% year-on-year decline [2] - The domestic milk powder industry is experiencing intense competition, with only a few brands like Yili, Biostime, and Mengniu showing growth [2] Financial Performance - The company's revenue forecast for 2025-2027 has been revised down from HKD 78.3 billion to HKD 74.9 billion for 2025, with net profit estimates also reduced [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted from HKD 0.17 to HKD 0.13 for 2025 [5] Growth Strategies - The company aims to enhance its product offerings and market presence through strategic initiatives, including channel expansion and product innovation [4] - The approval of a new probiotic strain for infant use marks a significant milestone for the company, reinforcing its technological capabilities [4] Financial Projections - The projected revenue for 2025 is HKD 74.9 billion, with a net profit of HKD 2.4 billion, reflecting a decrease from previous estimates [5] - The company expects to achieve a net profit margin of approximately 3.19% in 2024, with gradual improvements in subsequent years [8]

Core Insights - The approval of Bifidobacterium longum subsp. infantis YLGB-1496 for inclusion in the list of probiotics for infant food marks a significant advancement in ensuring the health of infants in China, showcasing the technical strength of the company involved, Ausnutria [1][2][3] Group 1: Product Approval and Significance - The strain YLGB-1496 has been officially recognized for its safety and efficacy, meeting stringent national standards for probiotics used in infant food [2][3] - This approval positions the company as a leader in the infant probiotic market, having two nationally recognized strains, reinforcing its commitment to high-quality infant nutrition [1][5] Group 2: Research and Clinical Evidence - YLGB-1496 has demonstrated significant clinical benefits, including a reduction in the incidence of eczema in infants and improvements in immune function, as evidenced by increased levels of immunoglobulins [3][5] - The strain has also shown positive effects on weight gain and digestive health in children aged 1-3 years, indicating its role in enhancing nutrient absorption and overall health [3][5] Group 3: Industry Collaboration and Market Impact - The collaboration between Ausnutria and Yili Group has been pivotal in the successful commercialization of YLGB-1496, with a well-established model for production and marketing of probiotics [6][9] - The strain has been integrated into various products within Yili's portfolio, demonstrating its versatility and potential for broad application across different food categories [8][9] Group 4: Future Prospects and Strategic Goals - The company aims to continue exploring the functional mechanisms of YLGB-1496 and expand its applications in diverse food forms, maintaining a focus on high standards for infant probiotics [9] - Ongoing collaboration with industry partners is expected to drive innovation and enhance the competitiveness of the Chinese probiotic industry, contributing to public health, particularly for infants [9]

Group 1 - Everbright Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Baidu Group-SW, citing short-term pressure on advertising but stabilization trends, with AI cloud growth logic remaining intact [1] - China Hongqiao's target price raised to HKD 45 by CMB International, driven by a persistent global aluminum supply-demand gap until 2026-27, leading to a 27% and 12% upward revision in profit forecasts [1] - CMB International initiates a "Buy" rating for Innovation Industry with a target price of HKD 32, highlighting significant cost advantages from renewable energy and a clear growth path through overseas aluminum projects [1] Group 2 - Huatai Securities lowers the target price for Ausnutria to HKD 2.11 while maintaining an "Add" rating, noting ongoing pressure from declining newborn population impacting domestic infant formula sales, but strong overseas performance [2] - Dongfang Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Geely Automobile with a target price of HKD 23.37, reporting a 121% year-on-year increase in January export sales and a 99.7% growth in the Zeekr brand [3] - Dongfang Securities also maintains a "Buy" rating for Kuaishou-W with a target price of HKD 104.36, highlighting a 112% month-on-month increase in AI overseas revenue and ongoing technological advancements [3] Group 3 - CITIC Construction maintains a "Buy" rating for Laopu Gold, noting a pre-Spring Festival buying spree and strong brand expansion, with Q1 gross margin expected to approach 40% [4] - Kaiyuan Securities initiates a "Buy" rating for Leshu Comfort, emphasizing its leading market share in Africa for baby diapers and sanitary napkins, supported by localized production and distribution channels [5] - GF Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan-W, indicating a stabilization in food delivery competition and a solid market position, with profitability expected to improve by 2026 [6] - Guoyuan International Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Q Technology with a target price of HKD 12.89, noting a 27.2% year-on-year increase in camera module prices and a growing revenue share from non-mobile sectors [7]

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2026年1月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 澳優乳業股份有限公司 呈交日期: 2026年2月4日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 01717 | 說明 | 普通股 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 3,000,000,000 | HKD | | 0.1 | HKD | | 300,000,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | | HKD | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 3,000,000,000 | HKD | | 0.1 | HKD | | 300,000,000 | 本月底法定/ ...

Group 1 - The company is expected to see a revenue growth of 1.1% year-on-year in 2025, with a slowdown in growth primarily due to the domestic milk powder business [1] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to remain flat year-on-year in 2025, with a decline in profit in the second half of 2025 mainly due to slower internal code transition and intensified industry competition [1] - Factors affecting the company's performance include a delayed internal code switch, increased competition with other companies offering subsidies or price cuts, and a slowdown in industry revenue growth [1] Group 2 - The completion of the internal code switch in December 2025 and the resolution of channel inventory issues are expected to lead to improvements in domestic business revenue in 2026 [2] - The overseas business is identified as a key growth driver, with stable contributions from markets like the Middle East and Saudi Arabia, and plans to expand into Southeast Asia and North America [2] - The company's net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised down to 236 million, 262 million, and 280 million yuan respectively, reflecting pressures from declining birth rates and increased competition [2]

2026 年 2 月 2 日 公司研究 因内码调整进度偏慢拖累，预计 25H2 业绩承压 ——澳优（1717.HK）2025 年业绩前瞻 资料来源：Wind，光大证券研究所预测，股价时间为 2026-01-30 （注：汇率为 1 港币=0.8926 元人民币，23-27 年股本 数分别为 17.80/17.80/17.78/17.78/17.78 亿股） 要点 2025 年业绩前瞻：1）我们预计公司 25 年收入同比增长 1.1%，收入增速较 25H1 放缓主要受国内奶粉业务拖累。2）我们预计公司 25 年归母净利润同比基本持 平；25H2 利润同比下滑主要系内码调整进度低于预期，以及行业竞争加剧，导 致高毛利率的国内奶粉业务收入占比下降。 内部调整滞后、外部行业环境恶化等因素影响，25 年业绩预计不及预期。 1）内码切换进度滞后：25 年 4 月公司启动内码切换工作并同步涨价，消费者提 前囤货，使得内码切换完成时间从三季度延迟至四季度，打乱了下半年核心业务 的增长节奏。2）行业竞争加剧：25 年行业内多家企业推出补贴或降价策略，而 公司此时处于涨价阶段，在价格竞争中处于被动地位。3）行业收入增速下滑： 25 ...

Investment Rating - The report provides various investment ratings for companies in the consumer staples sector, with several companies rated as "Outperform" and one as "Neutral" [1]. Core Insights - The report indicates that price hikes in the consumer staples sector are weaker than expected, while costs remain low [1]. - The monitored spot cost indices for six consumer goods categories have declined, while futures cost indices have primarily increased [34]. Summary by Category Beer - The spot cost index decreased by 1.87% month-on-month, while the futures index increased by 3.15%. Year-to-date, the spot index has changed by -0.6% and the futures index by +1.81% [35]. - Glass prices have shown a month-on-month decrease of 1.2% for spot prices and an increase of 3.4% for futures prices [35]. Condiments - The spot cost index decreased by 1.37% month-on-month, while the futures index increased by 3.03%. Year-to-date changes are -0.42% for spot and +2.23% for futures [36]. - Soybean prices have decreased by 2.4% month-on-month for spot prices, while futures prices increased by 6.7% [36]. Dairy Products - The spot cost index decreased by 1.93% month-on-month, while the futures index increased by 1.58%. Year-to-date changes are -0.43% for spot and +1.68% for futures [37]. - Fresh milk prices rose to 3.04 yuan/kg, with corn prices increasing by 0.4% month-on-month [37]. Instant Noodles - The spot cost index decreased by 0.51% month-on-month, while the futures index increased by 3.31%. Year-to-date changes are +0.79% for spot and +3.46% for futures [38]. - Palm oil prices increased by 9.6% month-on-month for spot prices [38]. Frozen Food - The spot cost index decreased by 1.74% month-on-month, while the futures index decreased by 0.61%. Year-to-date changes are -1.44% for spot and -0.14% for futures [39]. - Vegetable prices fell by 1.8% month-on-month [39]. Soft Drinks - The spot cost index decreased by 3.71% month-on-month, while the futures index remained unchanged. Year-to-date changes are -1.12% for spot and -0.19% for futures [40]. - PET chip prices increased by 5.4% month-on-month [40].

Core Viewpoint - Guotou Securities International has downgraded Ausnutria (01717) to a "Buy" rating due to anticipated challenges in the domestic milk powder industry and a significant decline in birth rates projected for 2025 [1][7]. Group 1: Birth Rate Decline - The birth population for 2025 is projected to be 79.2 million, a 17% decrease year-on-year, with a birth rate of 5.63‰ [2][7]. - In 2024, being the Year of the Dragon, there is an expected slight increase in birth rates, reaching 9.54 million, leading to a temporary easing of competition in the milk powder industry in the first half of 2025 [2][7]. Group 2: Company Performance - Ausnutria reported total revenue of 3.89 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 5.6%, and a net profit of 181 million yuan, up 21.4% [8]. - The growth was primarily supported by overseas goat milk powder, which generated 1.86 billion yuan in revenue, a 3.1% increase year-on-year, with overseas sales reaching 480 million yuan, a 65.7% increase, accounting for 26% of goat milk powder revenue [8]. - Domestic goat milk powder revenue was 1.38 billion yuan, down 8.9%, and cow milk powder revenue was 960 million yuan, down 14.9%, attributed to a system upgrade and inventory adjustments that reduced short-term shipments [8]. Group 3: Profitability and Margin Pressure - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 41.9%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points year-on-year [9]. - The gross margin for goat milk powder decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 55.1%, while cow milk powder's gross margin also fell by 0.8 percentage points to 52.3% [9]. - The introduction of internal code products has slightly pressured the gross margins, and further downward pressure on margins is expected in the second half of the year [9].