Core Viewpoint - The company achieved a revenue of 3.887 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 181 million yuan, up 24.1% year-on-year [1] Group 1: Revenue Breakdown - The company's revenue from milk powder, domestic goat milk powder, and nutritional products in H1 2025 was 961 million, 1.381 billion, and 156 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -14.9%, -8.9%, and +7.0% [1] - The newly added cheese business generated a revenue of 479 million yuan in H1 2025 [1] - The decline in revenue from milk powder and domestic goat milk powder was primarily due to the launch of an internal code system upgrade in Q2, which led to a temporary reduction in shipment volumes [1] Group 2: Market Performance - The market share of the goat milk powder brand increased to 30.4% by the end of H1 2025, up 2.8 percentage points year-on-year [1] - Overseas revenue from goat milk powder saw a significant increase of 65.7% to 483 million yuan, accounting for 25.9% of the overall goat milk powder business revenue [1] - Key regions such as the Middle East, North America, and the CIS experienced revenue growth of 54.2%, 138.7%, and 33.8% respectively [1] Group 3: Profitability and Cost Management - The gross profit margin for H1 2025 was 41.9%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to the lower gross margin of the newly merged goat cheese business at 6.8% [2] - The sales expense ratio was 26.1%, down 3.8 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to reduced promotional expenses from optimizing channel strategies [2] - The net profit margin attributable to shareholders increased to 4.6%, up 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [2] Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite challenges such as declining birth rates and macroeconomic uncertainties, domestic goat milk powder revenue is expected to improve in H2 2025 as inventory adjustments are completed [3] - The overseas goat milk powder business remains a key growth driver, with the company achieving leading sales on Amazon in the U.S. for goat milk infant formula [3] - The nutritional products segment is being developed as a second growth avenue, focusing on large clients and enhancing online and offline sales channels [3] Group 5: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains net profit forecasts of 299 million, 357 million, and 410 million yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 13x, 11x, and 10x [3] - The company is recognized as a leading brand in goat milk powder with successful overseas market expansion and growth potential [3]

Market Recovery - The milk powder business has shown significant signs of recovery, contrasting with the ongoing pressure in the liquid milk market [1][2] - In the first half of 2025, Yili's milk powder and dairy products achieved revenue of 16.578 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.26% [2] - Aoyou, a subsidiary of Yili, reported a revenue increase of 5.6% to 3.887 billion yuan and a net profit increase of 24.1% to 181 million yuan [2] - Mengniu's milk powder business also saw a slight revenue increase to 1.6756 billion yuan, up from 1.6353 billion yuan, with its share of total revenue rising from 3.7% to 4.0% [2] External Brand Performance - Foreign brands like a2 Milk Company reported a revenue increase of 13.5% to 1.902 billion NZD, with a 13.9% increase in revenue from China and other Asian regions [3] - FrieslandCampina's professional nutrition business in China grew by 18.1%, with operating profit surging by 61% [3] - The overall performance of foreign brands has outpaced domestic brands, leading to a decline in market share for domestic companies [3] Policy Support - The implementation of a child-rearing subsidy program starting January 1, 2025, is expected to boost consumer spending on infant formula [4] - The subsidy is set at 3,600 yuan per child per year, which may enhance disposable income and drive demand for mid-to-high-end products [4] Industry Dynamics - The infant formula market, despite being valued in the hundreds of billions, has faced growth challenges due to declining birth rates [5] - The market began to stabilize in 2024, with a slight increase in newborn numbers and the completion of the transition to new national standards [5][6] - Companies that implemented inventory and price control strategies have generally seen revenue and profit growth, while those engaging in price wars face operational difficulties [6] Strategic Moves - a2 Milk Company announced the acquisition of Mengniu's subsidiary, Yashili New Zealand Dairy Company, for approximately 282 million NZD to enhance production capacity [6][7] - This acquisition reflects different strategic considerations between domestic and foreign companies, with Mengniu focusing on optimizing its production capacity [6][7] - The industry is shifting towards a "whole family nutrition" approach, expanding beyond infant formula to include products for adults and seniors [7] - Aoyou's nutrition business revenue grew by 7.0%, and a2 Milk reported a 33.1% increase in revenue from its whole family nutrition products in Asia [7]

Core Viewpoint - Aoyou Dairy's mid-year report for 2025 shows continued growth in revenue and profit despite a challenging global economic environment and increased competition in the infant formula market, driven by a comprehensive nutrition strategy and strong international performance [2][3][4]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Aoyou reported revenue of approximately 3.887 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.6% - EBITDA reached about 398 million yuan, up 29.7% - Net profit attributable to equity holders was approximately 181 million yuan, reflecting a 24.1% increase [2]. International Market Growth - Aoyou's international business experienced explosive growth, with revenue from the goat milk powder brand "Jiabai Aite" increasing by 65.7% to approximately 483 million yuan - The Middle East market saw a revenue increase of 54.2%, while North America reported a staggering 138.7% growth, becoming the second-largest revenue source for Aoyou [3][4]. Product and Market Strategy - Aoyou's nutrition business also grew by 7.0%, with successful expansion into overseas markets - The company launched several new products under the NC brand, which has become the top-selling Australian brand of probiotics in China [5][6]. Supply Chain and Operational Efficiency - Aoyou implemented a digital can code system to enhance product freshness and transparency, which, while impacting short-term sales, is expected to support long-term growth - The company's own brand milk powder business generated approximately 2.826 billion yuan, with goat milk powder maintaining a market share of 30.4% [6][7]. Research and Innovation - Aoyou hosted an international medical seminar on goat milk in Amsterdam, enhancing its authority in the field - The company launched four new goat milk raw materials, with three achieving global commercial viability, and received several awards for its products [9][10]. Future Outlook - Despite ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties and a declining trend in the infant formula industry, Aoyou remains confident in its market position and plans to strengthen its second growth curve through consumer-centric strategies and continued innovation [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [6]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 3.887 billion CNY in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.6%, and a net profit of 181 million CNY, up 24.1% year-on-year [1]. - The overseas goat milk powder segment showed significant growth, with a 65.7% increase in revenue to 483 million CNY, accounting for 25.9% of total goat milk powder revenue [2]. - The company is focusing on optimizing sales expenses and improving net profit margins, with a net profit margin of 4.6% in H1 2025, up 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The company anticipates continued strong growth in overseas goat milk powder sales and is developing its nutrition products as a second growth avenue [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company reported revenues of 3.887 billion CNY and a net profit of 181 million CNY, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 5.6% and 24.1% [1]. - The gross profit margin for H1 2025 was 41.9%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points, primarily due to the lower margin from the newly acquired cheese business [3]. Product Performance - Revenue from cow milk powder, domestic goat milk powder, and nutrition products in H1 2025 was 961 million CNY, 1.381 billion CNY, and 156 million CNY, with year-on-year changes of -14.9%, -8.9%, and +7.0% respectively [2]. - The newly added cheese business generated 479 million CNY in revenue [2]. Market Outlook - The company expects domestic goat milk powder revenue to improve in H2 2025 as inventory adjustments are completed, and policies stimulate demand [4]. - The overseas goat milk powder business remains a key growth driver, with significant sales increases in core regions such as the Middle East and North America [2][4]. Profitability and Valuation - The company forecasts net profits of 299 million CNY, 357 million CNY, and 410 million CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 13x, 11x, and 10x [4].

Market Overview - The retail market size for infant formula in China was 161.9 billion yuan in 2018, with a projected decline to 136.7 billion yuan by 2024, reflecting a negative growth trend in recent years [2] - The market is expected to recover slightly in 2025, with a forecasted growth of 5.2% to reach 143.8 billion yuan [2] Market Segmentation - In 2024, the market segmentation for maternal and infant products shows that infant formula accounts for 50.4% of the total market, followed by maternal and infant cleaning products at 19.4% and infant skincare at 9.8% [2][3] Sales Channels - In the first four months of 2025, the overall sales of infant formula across all channels grew by 2.3%, with online channels experiencing a significant increase of 12.3%, while offline channels saw a decline of 1.4% [4] - Specific offline channels such as brand specialty stores and maternal and infant stores reported substantial growth rates of 49.5% and 48.7%, respectively [5] Company Performance - Companies like健合集团 (Jianhe Group) and 澳优乳业 (Aoyou Dairy) reported revenue and profit growth in their infant formula segments for the first half of 2025, with Jianhe Group's revenue increasing by 5.2% to 70.2 billion yuan and Aoyou's revenue rising by 5.6% to approximately 38.87 billion yuan [8][10] - Jianhe Group's infant nutrition business saw a 2.9% increase in revenue, while Aoyou's self-owned brand infant formula business generated approximately 28.26 billion yuan in revenue [8][10] Market Trends - The infant formula market is undergoing significant changes, with a shift towards high-end and ultra-high-end products despite overall market demand shrinking [12] - The report indicates that the market is expected to enter a new growth phase due to factors such as a rebound in birth rates and supportive government policies, with a projected growth rate of around 5% for the infant formula retail market in 2025 [13] Consumer Behavior - There is a noticeable trend of consumption upgrading in the infant formula market, with consumers willing to pay higher prices for quality products, particularly among the younger generation [14] - The proportion of consumers purchasing infant formula priced above 300 yuan increased to 26% in 2024, up from 21% in 2023 [14]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to several companies including China Feihe, Huazhu, and others, while Budweiser APAC is rated as "Neutral" [1]. Core Insights - The report indicates a slight rebound in spot costs for essential consumer goods, with most indices showing an increase, while futures indices generally declined [35]. - The overall trend in the consumer goods sector reflects a mixed performance, with some categories experiencing cost increases while others face declines [8][35]. Summary by Category Beer - The spot cost index for beer increased by 0.39% month-on-month, while the futures index decreased by 6.06%. Year-to-date changes show a decline of 4.17% for spot and 6.16% for futures [36][13]. - Glass prices initially rose but later fell, with month-on-month changes of +0.3% for spot and -13.9% for futures [12]. Seasonings - The spot cost index for seasonings decreased by 0.16% month-on-month, while the futures index fell by 5.93%. Year-to-date changes are -1.76% for spot and -6.01% for futures [37]. - Domestic soybean prices have increased due to supply contraction, while imported soybeans remain weak [16]. Dairy - The spot cost index for dairy products increased by 0.7% month-on-month, while the futures index decreased by 1.44%. Year-to-date changes are -3.2% for spot and -2.11% for futures [38]. - Fresh milk prices have declined to 3.02 yuan/kg, with various factors contributing to price pressures [19]. Instant Noodles - The spot cost index for instant noodles increased by 1.3% month-on-month, while the futures index decreased by 2%. Year-to-date changes are -3.01% for spot and -4.21% for futures [39]. - Palm oil prices have risen, impacting overall costs [23]. Frozen Foods - The spot cost index for frozen foods increased by 1.15% month-on-month, while the futures index rose by 0.97%. Year-to-date changes are -1.83% for spot and -2.74% for futures [40]. - Vegetable prices have shown significant fluctuations due to seasonal demand [27]. Soft Drinks - The spot cost index for soft drinks increased by 0.78% month-on-month, while the futures index decreased by 5.63%. Year-to-date changes are -4.99% for spot and -8.6% for futures [41]. - PET prices are stable to weak, reflecting changes in demand and inventory levels [31].

Core Viewpoint - Aoyou Dairy Co., Ltd. reported a resilient growth in revenue and profit for the first half of 2025, with significant contributions from its international business and nutrition products [1][5][6]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Aoyou achieved revenue of approximately 3.887 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 5.6% [1] - EBITDA reached about 398 million RMB, reflecting a growth of 29.7% [1] - Net profit attributable to equity holders was approximately 181 million RMB, up by 24.1% [1] International Market Growth - Aoyou's overseas milk powder sales surged by 65.7%, reaching approximately 483 million RMB [6] - The Middle East remains the largest overseas market, with a revenue increase of 54.2% [6] - North America saw a remarkable revenue growth of over 138.7%, becoming the second-largest source of overseas revenue [7] Nutrition Products Development - The nutrition products segment achieved a revenue growth of 7.0%, expanding into international markets [8] - The company launched several new functional products that gained significant consumer attention [8] Brand and Market Position - Aoyou's own brand milk powder business generated approximately 2.826 billion RMB, with a 3.1% increase in sheep milk powder sales [9] - The market share of Aoyou's sheep milk powder rose by 2.8 percentage points to 30.4% [9] - Aoyou's cow milk powder market share stabilized, with significant growth in e-commerce sales [10] Operational Efficiency - The company improved its sales and distribution expense ratio by 3.8% through enhanced digital marketing strategies [11] - Inventory turnover days decreased by 20 days, indicating improved supply chain efficiency [11] Research and Innovation - Aoyou hosted an international seminar on goat milk, enhancing its authority in the field [12] - The company launched four new sheep milk raw materials, with three achieving global commercial viability [13] Future Outlook - Aoyou remains confident in its market position and plans to strengthen its second growth curve while focusing on research and innovation [14]

Core Insights - Aoyou Dairy Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of approximately 3.887 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.6% [1] - The company's EBITDA reached approximately 398 million yuan, showing a significant increase of 29.7% year-on-year [1] - Net profit attributable to equity holders of the parent company was approximately 181 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 24.1% [1] Brand Performance - Aoyou's own brand milk powder business generated approximately 2.826 billion yuan in revenue, with the goat milk powder segment growing by 3.1% year-on-year [1] - The company's market share for goat milk powder increased by 2.8 percentage points to 30.4% as of June 30 [1] - Aoyou has maintained over 60% market share in China's imported infant goat milk powder market for seven consecutive years, with sales volume and revenue share reaching 84% in 2024 [1] International and Nutritional Business Growth - The international business and nutritional products have become significant growth drivers for the company [1] - Aoyou's international business saw explosive growth, with revenue from Jiabei Aite in overseas markets increasing by 65.7% to approximately 483 million yuan [1] - The growth in international markets is attributed to strategic breakthroughs in the Middle East, North America, and the CIS, with notable progress in channel expansion, product innovation, and brand building [1][2] Nutritional Products Expansion - The nutritional products segment achieved a revenue growth of 7.0% year-on-year and successfully expanded into overseas markets [2] - The To B segment, particularly Jinqi Biological, improved fermentation processes and stability, leading to a revenue contribution increase to 24% through strategic partnerships [2] - The To C segment launched seven functional products, including G13 growth capsules and Aiyisen Shouhu PRO, during the first half of the year [2]

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating to "Accumulate" [6][4] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 3.89 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.5%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 180 million, up 40.5% year-on-year [1] - The infant formula business saw a decline in domestic sales but significant growth in overseas markets, particularly in goat milk powder, which achieved a revenue increase of 65.7% [1][2] - The company maintains its international market strategy, with goat milk powder expected to continue driving growth, supported by potential improvements in domestic demand due to changing birth policies [1][3] Revenue Breakdown - For the first half of 2025, the revenue from infant formula was 2.83 billion, down 3.8% year-on-year, while cheese and other products saw increases of 51.6% and 7.0%, respectively [2] - Goat milk powder revenue was 1.86 billion, up 3.1%, while cow milk powder revenue decreased by 14.9% [2] - The company achieved a revenue of 2.58 billion in China, down 10.7%, but saw increases in Europe (67.1%), the Middle East (49.4%), and the Americas (67.4%) [2] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 41.9%, with goat milk powder and cow milk powder margins at 55.1% and 52.3%, respectively [3] - The net profit margin increased by 0.7 percentage points to 4.6%, supported by effective cost control measures [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 0.18, 0.20, and 0.22 RMB, reflecting increases of 13%, 10%, and 7% respectively [4] - The target price is set at 2.97 HKD, based on a 15x price-to-earnings ratio for 2025 [4][7]

Core Viewpoint - Aoyou's international and nutrition businesses have become the second growth engine for the company, showing robust performance in the first half of 2025 with significant revenue and profit growth [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Aoyou achieved revenue of approximately RMB 38.87 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.6% [1]. - EBITDA reached approximately RMB 3.98 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 29.7% [1]. - Profit attributable to equity holders of the parent company was approximately RMB 1.81 billion, up 24.1% year-on-year, indicating sustained revenue and profit growth [1]. Group 2: International Business Growth - Aoyou's international business saw explosive growth, with revenue from the overseas market increasing by 65.7% to approximately RMB 4.83 billion [5]. - The Middle East remains the largest overseas market for Aoyou, with a revenue increase of 54.2% [7]. - North America experienced a revenue increase of over 138.7%, becoming the second-largest revenue source for Aoyou [7]. - The Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) market contributed stable revenue growth with a year-on-year increase of 33.8% [7]. Group 3: Nutrition Business Development - Aoyou's nutrition business achieved a revenue growth of 7.0% year-on-year, successfully expanding into overseas markets [8]. - The To B segment saw significant improvements in the stability of probiotic fermentation processes, with revenue contributions from strategic partnerships and e-commerce channels [8]. - The To C segment launched seven new functional products, which received positive consumer feedback [8]. Group 4: Brand and Market Position - Aoyou's own brand milk powder business generated approximately RMB 28.26 billion in revenue, with the goat milk powder segment growing by 3.1% [13]. - The market share of Aoyou's goat milk powder increased by 2.8 percentage points to 30.4% [13]. - Aoyou's cow milk powder business stabilized, with significant growth in e-commerce sales [13]. Group 5: Supply Chain and Operational Efficiency - Aoyou completed the strategic acquisition of the remaining 50% stake in Amalthea Group B.V., enhancing its supply chain advantage in goat milk products [14]. - The company implemented a digital can code system to improve product freshness and transparency, which may impact short-term sales but supports long-term growth [11]. - Sales and distribution expense ratios improved, with a 3.8% year-on-year decrease due to enhanced marketing efficiency [15]. Group 6: Research and Innovation - Aoyou hosted the "Future of Goat Milk" international seminar, enhancing its authority in the field of goat milk formula [16]. - The company launched four new goat milk raw materials, with three achieving global commercialization [17]. - Aoyou received multiple awards for its research and product innovations, reinforcing its commitment to scientific advancement [17].