Report Overview - Report Title: How Will the Balance Evolve under High Supply and Demand Elasticity after the Supply Shock? - Research Institute: Orient Futures Derivatives Research Institute - Date: September 2025 - Analyst: Chen Yixuan 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - In the short term, the lithium market presents a combination of strong reality and weak expectations, with limited de - stocking and a surplus pattern. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on price rallies and reverse spread opportunities for LC2511 - 2512. In the long term, although the static balance remains in surplus, the high - growth demand will ease the apparent inventory build - up pressure in 2026, and the trading strategy can gradually shift from shorting on rallies to buying on dips [61]. 3. Summary by Relevant Directory Q3 Market Review - Since the end of June, lithium prices have rebounded rapidly from the bottom to 90,000 yuan, then fluctuated after a spike. From late June to mid - July, demand expectation correction drove the price to stabilize and rebound; from mid - July to mid - August, supply - side risks led to a rapid price increase; since mid - August, after the market priced in the shutdown of Jianxiaowo, the price corrected to account for the increased supply stimulated by high prices [2][5]. Supply - Side Uncertainty - Since mid - July, mining license risks in Jiangxi and Qinghai have intensified. The shutdown of some projects raised concerns about domestic supply risks, and the expiration of Jianxiaowo's mining license in August triggered market sentiment. However, since late August, the resumption of previously shut - down projects has cooled market enthusiasm [6][8]. Supply Pressure and Inventory - High prices have accelerated the manifestation of supply pressure. After the price rebound, the output of spodumene processing increased rapidly, offsetting the reduction in mica supply. Since late August, the generation of warehouse receipts has accelerated. Currently, domestic ore inventory is still at a moderately high level, and imported ore flows in stably, with new projects expanding production capacity, so there is no significant constraint on lithium salt supply [9][11][12]. Lithium Salt Trade and Resource Output - In terms of lithium salt shipments, South American shipments are in line with capacity ramp - up expectations, and Indonesia has brought marginal increments. The regional premium has changed the trade flow of lithium salts. The revised global lithium resource supply in 2025 is expected to increase by 270,000 tons LCE year - on - year, and the impact of mining license disruptions is limited. In 2026, the project reserve is still sufficient, with an expected year - on - year increase of 300,000 tons LCE, but some mica capacity may face supply uncertainty [16][19][22]. Terminal Demand - In the power market, new - energy passenger vehicle sales in China, Europe, and the US from January to August increased by 36%, 28%, and 4% year - on - year respectively. The new - energy commercial vehicle market is a highlight, with sales in China from January to August increasing by 66% year - on - year. The domestic and overseas energy - storage markets have continuously exceeded expectations, with high growth in domestic large - scale energy - storage project bids and a significant increase in overseas exports [30][36][41]. Market Balance - In the short term, the market is in a de - stocking phase, but the de - stocking amplitude is limited. The fundamental situation supports prices in the short term but cannot drive prices up independently. In the long term, from 2025 to 2026, the global lithium resource market remains in surplus, but the apparent inventory build - up in 2026 may narrow, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio will decrease [48][51][55]. Strategy Recommendation - Short - term: Given the strong reality and weak expectations, limited de - stocking, and the expectation of project resumption, it is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on price rallies and reverse spread opportunities for LC2511 - 2512. Long - term: As the demand growth will ease the inventory build - up pressure in 2026, the trading strategy can gradually shift from shorting on rallies to buying on dips [61].

每经AI快讯，9月29日，A股能源金属板块震荡走高，赣锋锂业涨超8%，中矿资源、华友钴业、腾远钴 业、天华新能、天齐锂业等个股跟涨。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in the non-ferrous metal sector is driven by a significant policy announcement aimed at stabilizing growth in the industry, leading to a notable increase in stock prices for related companies in both Hong Kong and A-shares markets [3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - In the Hong Kong stock market, several non-ferrous metal companies saw substantial gains, including Zijin Mining (+5.60%), Ganfeng Lithium (+5.37%), and China Aluminum International (+5.29%) [1]. - A-shares also experienced a positive trend, with companies like Yicheng New Energy and Boqian New Materials hitting the daily limit up, and Hengdian East Magnetic rising by 6.16% [2]. Group 2: Policy Impact - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with eight other departments, released the "Non-Ferrous Metal Industry Stabilization Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)", projecting an average annual growth of around 5% in the industry's added value and a 1.5% increase in the production of ten major non-ferrous metals [3]. - The plan addresses current challenges in the industry, proposing ten initiatives focused on resource security, supply optimization, transformation promotion, consumption expansion, and strengthening cooperation [3]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - The non-ferrous metal industry is showing strong performance, with a reported 7.8% year-on-year increase in the added value of large-scale non-ferrous metal industries from January to August 2025, outpacing the overall industrial growth [3]. - Analysts from various institutions express optimism about the sector's future, citing factors such as potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and seasonal demand increases in the aluminum and lithium markets [5].

Group 1: Solid-State Battery Developments - A research team led by Professor Zhang Qiang from Tsinghua University has made significant progress in polymer electrolytes for lithium batteries, developing a new fluorinated polyether electrolyte that enhances physical contact and ionic conductivity at solid-state interfaces, potentially aiding the development of mature solid-state battery products [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and eight other departments have issued an action plan emphasizing solid-state batteries as a key focus area, aiming to support the transition of lithium and sodium batteries to solid-state technology and to establish 3 to 5 global leading enterprises by 2027 [4] - As of September 25, 21 solid-state battery concept stocks have seen net purchases exceeding 100 million yuan since September, with companies like CATL, Xian Dao Intelligent, Guoxuan High-Tech, and Ganfeng Lithium leading in net purchase amounts [4] Group 2: Market Reactions and Trends - The solid-state battery sector has experienced a surge in stock prices, with several companies reaching their daily limit up due to positive market sentiment [3] - Brokerages have seen a rise in stock prices, with Guosheng Financial hitting the daily limit, and other firms like Xinda Securities, GF Securities, Huatai Securities, and CITIC Securities also experiencing gains [4] - The central bank has emphasized the need for a moderately loose monetary policy to encourage financial institutions to increase credit supply, which may positively impact the financial sector [7] Group 3: AI Infrastructure Investments - Alibaba has announced a three-year investment plan of 380 billion yuan for AI infrastructure, indicating a strong commitment to enhancing computational capabilities [11] - The demand for computational power is rapidly increasing due to the AI technology revolution, with estimates suggesting that the training requirements for large models double every 3 to 4 months [12] - Investment in computational infrastructure is expected to drive economic growth, with projections indicating that every yuan invested in the computational industry could generate 3 to 4 yuan in GDP growth [12]

每经AI快讯，9月29日，港股有色股早盘活跃，截至发稿，赣锋锂业(01772.HK)涨6.01%，报39.5港元； 中铝国际(02068.HK)涨4.41%，报2.37港元；招金矿业(01818.HK)涨4.02%，报30.52港元；洛阳钼业 (03993.HK)涨3.44%，报14.45港元；中国铝业(02600.HK)涨3.97%，报7.85港元；江西铜业股份 (00358.HK)涨2.45%，报27.6港元。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，有色股早盘活跃，截至发稿，赣锋锂业(01772)涨6.01%，报39.5港元；中铝国际 (02068)涨4.41%，报2.37港元；招金矿业(01818)涨4.02%，报30.52港元；洛阳钼业(03993)涨3.44%，报 14.45港元；中国铝业(02600)涨3.97%，报7.85港元；江西铜业股份(00358)涨2.45%，报27.6港元。 消息面上，9月28日，工业和信息化部等八部门印发《有色金属行业稳增长工作方案（2025—2026 年）》，其中提到，2025—2026年，有色金属行业增加值年均增长5%左右，十种有色金属产量年均增 长1.5%左右，铜、铝、锂等国内资源开发取得积极进展。国海证券认为，短期来看，美联储如期降 息，且仍有进一步降息预期；有色金属行业稳增长工作方案出台，提振行业情绪。下游铝加工环节开工 率仍在持续回升中，库存拐点基本出现，关注"金九银十"旺季机会。民生证券指出，美联储降息落地， 商品供给干扰频发，伴随美国财政货币双宽松，叠加国内"金九银十"旺季需求，工业金属价格有望继续 上行。 ...

消息面上，9月28日，工业和信息化部等八部门印发《有色金属行业稳增长工作方案（2025—2026 年）》，其中提到，2025—2026年，有色金属行业增加值年均增长5%左右，十种有色金属产量年均增 长1.5%左右，铜、铝、锂等国内资源开发取得积极进展。国海证券认为，短期来看，美联储如期降 息，且仍有进一步降息预期；有色金属行业稳增长工作方案出台，提振行业情绪。下游铝加工环节开工 率仍在持续回升中，库存拐点基本出现，关注"金九银十"旺季机会。民生证券指出，美联储降息落地， 商品供给干扰频发，伴随美国财政货币双宽松，叠加国内"金九银十"旺季需求，工业金属价格有望继续 上行。 有色股早盘活跃，截至发稿，赣锋锂业（002460）(01772)涨6.01%，报39.5港元；中铝国际（601068） (02068)涨4.41%，报2.37港元；招金矿业(01818)涨4.02%，报30.52港元；洛阳钼业（603993）(03993)涨 3.44%，报14.45港元；中国铝业（601600）(02600)涨3.97%，报7.85港元；江西铜业（600362）股份 (00358)涨2.45%，报27.6港元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong lithium battery concept stocks have shown significant gains, indicating a positive market sentiment towards the sector [1] Company Performance - Zhongxin Innovation (03931.HK) increased by 10.67%, reaching HKD 34.24 [1] - Tianneng Power (00819.HK) rose by 7.27%, trading at HKD 8.85 [1] - Ganfeng Lithium (01772.HK) saw a rise of 4.19%, with a price of HKD 38.86 [1] - CATL (03750.HK) experienced a 3.3% increase, priced at HKD 548 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery sector is experiencing significant stock price increases, driven by strong domestic demand for energy storage cells and optimistic future projections for the industry [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Zhongxin Innovation (03931) increased by 10.67%, reaching HKD 34.24 [1] - Tianneng Power (00819) rose by 7.27%, reaching HKD 8.85 [1] - Ganfeng Lithium (01772) saw a 4.19% increase, reaching HKD 38.86 [1] - CATL (03750) grew by 3.3%, reaching HKD 548 [1] Group 2: Market Demand and Projections - Domestic demand for energy storage cells is currently very strong, with leading battery companies operating at full capacity and some orders extending into early next year [1] - According to the "Special Action Plan," by 2027, China's new energy storage installed capacity is expected to exceed 180 million kilowatts, leading to an estimated investment of approximately 250 billion yuan [1] Group 3: Industry Outlook - CITIC Construction Investment Securities remains optimistic about the energy storage and lithium battery sectors, highlighting the ongoing core issue of whether sustained energy storage demand can support an upward revision of the 20% growth forecast for 2026 [1] - Key factors to monitor include energy storage bidding in Q4, battery companies' procurement expectations by the end of November, and the impact of the 2026 electric vehicle trade-in policy and lithium battery production scheduling [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the strong demand for domestic energy storage cells, leading to significant stock price increases for lithium battery concept stocks [1] - Major battery companies are operating at full capacity, with some orders already scheduled into early next year [1] - According to the "Special Action Plan," China's new energy storage installation capacity is expected to exceed 180 million kilowatts by 2027, driving an additional investment of approximately 250 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities maintains a positive outlook on the energy storage and lithium battery sectors, emphasizing the importance of sustained energy storage demand [1] - The current key concern is whether the sustained demand for energy storage can support an upward revision of the 20% growth forecast for 2026 [1] - Attention is drawn to the upcoming energy storage bidding in the fourth quarter, the expected battery orders by the end of November, and the 2026 electric vehicle replacement policy along with lithium battery production plans [1]