Core Viewpoint - Budweiser APAC (01876) has seen a significant decline in net profit expectations for the first half of 2025, with a projected decrease of 24%, indicating a general market sentiment of lowered profitability [1] Financial Performance - Budweiser APAC's second-quarter performance was largely in line with expectations, but sales in key markets like China and South Korea have generally contracted [1] - Despite a slight increase in average selling prices due to product upgrades, this was insufficient to offset the impact of declining sales [1] Market Position - The management of Budweiser APAC has made efforts to steer the business in the right direction; however, these efforts appear inadequate to reverse the decline in market share as a premium brand during China's consumption upgrade cycle [1]

里昂发表报告指，百威亚太第二季中国业务持续改善，但预期第三季将面临挑战，因为部分官方场合禁 酒后的反奢侈规定自六月起影响餐厅渠道、渠道持续去库存，以及收入基数较高。该行对百威亚太目标 价由10.4港元下调至9.3港元，维持"跑赢大市"评级，高于5%股息率为股价下行空间提供保障；同时下 调盈利预测，目前预测2025年营收及Ebitda跌幅分别为6%和9%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - CICC has downgraded Budweiser APAC's EBITDA forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 6% to $1.679 billion and $1.771 billion respectively, due to weak demand in the China region [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's 2Q25 performance met market expectations, with revenue, sales volume, average selling price (ASP), and EBITDA showing year-on-year changes of -3.9%, -6.2%, +2.4%, and -4.5% respectively [2] - In the China market, revenue, sales volume, ASP, and EBITDA experienced year-on-year declines of -6.4%, -7.4%, +1.1%, and -4.0% respectively [2] Group 2: Regional Insights - In the China region, sales volume decreased by 6.4% year-on-year, but the decline rate narrowed, attributed to inventory reduction and channel structure adjustments [3] - ASP in the China region increased by 1.1% year-on-year, benefiting from product mix optimization, with high-end and super high-end products gaining a larger share in non-immediate consumption channels [3] - The Indian market continued to show double-digit growth in revenue, while the Korean market faced pressure due to preemptive stocking and market weakness, leading to a decline in EBITDA margin [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - For 2H25, the company expects stabilization and gradual improvement, with a focus on dealer interests in the China region and low channel inventory [5] - The company plans to expand non-immediate consumption channels and invest in high-end products in Korea and India to enhance profitability [5] - Cost-wise, raw material prices are expected to remain low, which may support profit margin recovery [5]

Core Viewpoint - CICC has downgraded Budweiser APAC's EBITDA forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 6% to $1.679 billion and $1.771 billion respectively, due to weak demand in the China region [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - 2Q25 results met market expectations with revenue, volume, ASP, and EBITDA showing year-on-year changes of -3.9%, -6.2%, +2.4%, and -4.5% respectively [2] - In China, revenue, volume, ASP, and EBITDA saw declines of -6.4%, -7.4%, +1.1%, and -4.0% year-on-year [2] Group 2: China Market Analysis - In 2Q25, China's sales volume decreased by 6.4% year-on-year, but the decline rate narrowed compared to previous quarters, attributed to inventory reduction and channel structure adjustments [3] - The ASP in China improved by 1.1% year-on-year due to product mix optimization, with high-end and super high-end products gaining a larger share in non-immediate consumption channels [3] Group 3: Regional Performance - The Indian market continued to show double-digit growth in 2Q25, while the Korean market faced challenges due to preemptive stocking and market weakness, leading to a decline in sales volume [4] - In the Asia-Pacific East region, revenue, volume, ASP, and EBITDA experienced year-on-year declines of -8.4%, -10.4%, +2.2%, and -26.5% respectively [4] Group 4: Outlook for 2H25 - The company expects stabilization and gradual improvement in performance, with a focus on dealer interests in China and low channel inventory levels [5] - The company plans to continue investing in high-end products in Korea and leverage high-end and super high-end products in India for growth [5] - Cost expectations for barley and other raw materials remain low, which may support profit margin recovery [5]

Core Viewpoint - Budweiser APAC shows signs of stabilization under new leadership, with a slight recovery in revenue and profitability in Q2 2023 compared to Q1 2023, despite year-on-year declines in key metrics [1][2][4] Financial Performance - For H1 2023, Budweiser APAC reported revenue of $3.136 billion, normalized EBITDA of $983 million, and sales volume of 4.363 million kiloliters, all showing declines of 5.6%, 8%, and 6.1% respectively compared to the same period last year [1][15] - In Q2 2023, normalized EBITDA decline narrowed to single digits, and revenue decline showed signs of recovery, with revenue per hectoliter experiencing a year-on-year growth of 2.4% [4][10] Leadership and Strategy - Cheng Yanjun took over as CEO in April 2023, marking a strategic shift towards strengthening core brands Budweiser and Harbin Beer, and focusing on non-immediate consumption channels [2][4] - The company aims to enhance brand image and connect with younger consumers through new marketing strategies, including a refreshed branding for Budweiser and collaborations with sports events [4][5] Market Positioning - Budweiser is shifting resources from the ultra-premium segment to the "core++" market to align with current consumer trends, while Harbin Beer is targeting younger demographics with initiatives like "Harbin New Generation" [5][8] - The company is expanding its non-immediate consumption channels, including partnerships with convenience stores and online platforms, to adapt to changing consumer preferences [6][7][9] Competitive Landscape - Despite being a leader in the high-end beer market, Budweiser faces competition from brands that are gaining market share through more localized marketing and pricing strategies [14] - In H1 2023, Budweiser's revenue in China fell by 9.5% year-on-year, and sales volume decreased by 8.2%, which is still above the industry average decline of 0.3% [15] Future Outlook - The company aims to return to growth in market share in China, which is a critical KPI for the second half of the year, as investor confidence hinges on the recovery of core operating metrics [14][16] - Budweiser's headquarters remains optimistic about the Chinese beer market, anticipating gradual improvement in market conditions [16]

Core Insights - Budweiser APAC Holdings Limited reported a revenue of $3.136 billion for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decline of 5.6% [1] - The company achieved a net profit of $409 million and a sales volume of 4.3628 million kiloliters, which represents a 6.1% decrease compared to the previous year [1] Performance Summary - In China, the company's sales volume decreased by 8.2%, with revenue and revenue per hectoliter declining by 9.5% and 1.4% respectively [1] - The second quarter saw a sales volume reduction of 7.4% and a revenue decrease of 6.4%, attributed to ongoing weaknesses in business layout and channel performance [1] - In South Korea, despite a weak industry performance, the company continued to outperform the market across various channels [1] - Growth momentum in India is accelerating, with Budweiser brand growth outpacing the industry [1]

Major Events - JD Group-SW (09618) has decided to make a voluntary public acquisition offer to CECONOMY and establish a strategic investment partnership [1] - Zhonghui Biological-B (02627) plans to conduct an IPO from July 31 to August 5, aiming to globally offer 33.4426 million H-shares [1] - WuXi AppTec (02359) intends to place 73.8 million new H-shares at a discount of approximately 6.90%, raising about HKD 7.65 billion [1] - Weihai Bank (09677) plans to issue up to approximately 758 million domestic shares and 154 million H-shares, raising nearly HKD 3 billion [1] - HSBC Holdings (00005) plans to repurchase up to USD 3 billion of ordinary shares [1] - Joy City Property (00207) proposes a share buyback through an agreement arrangement, with resumption of trading on August 1 [1] Operating Performance - MGM China (02282) reported total revenue of HKD 16.661 billion for the first half, an increase of 2.73% year-on-year [1] - Standard Chartered Group (02888) released interim results with a profit attributable to shareholders of USD 3.065 billion, a year-on-year increase of 41% [1] - Autohome-S (02518) reported a net profit attributable to the parent of RMB 416 million in the second quarter, with online marketing and other business revenues increasing by 20.5% year-on-year [1] - Tongguan Gold (00340) issued a positive profit alert, expecting a mid-term profit attributable to shareholders of approximately HKD 330 million to HKD 360 million, a year-on-year increase of about 259% to 291% [1] - Qingdao Bank (03866) reported a net profit attributable to the parent of RMB 3.065 billion for the first half, a year-on-year increase of 16.05% [1] - Faraday (09638) announced interim results with a profit attributable to shareholders of EUR 4.3454 million, a year-on-year decrease of 0.92% [1] - Budweiser APAC (01876) released interim results with a profit attributable to shareholders of USD 409 million, a year-on-year decrease of 24.4% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Budweiser APAC reported a decline in revenue, net profit, and sales volume for the first half of the year, indicating ongoing challenges in the market [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - Budweiser APAC's net profit for the first half of the year was $409 million, a decrease of 24.4% year-on-year [1][2]. - The total sales volume was 4.363 million kiloliters, down 6.1% compared to the previous year [1][2]. - Revenue decreased to $3.136 billion, reflecting a 5.6% decline [2]. - Gross profit was $1.613 billion, with a gross margin of 51.4%, slightly down from 51.5% [2]. Market Challenges - The company's performance in China was significantly impacted by weak channel dynamics and increased competition from local brands [4][5]. - Budweiser APAC's primary market focus has been on high-end products priced at 10 RMB and above, but competition from domestic brands has intensified [4]. - The traditional distribution channels, particularly in dining and nightlife, faced challenges due to slow recovery and regulatory concerns [5]. Competitive Landscape - Heineken, a major competitor, reported a contrasting performance in China, with a 30% increase in sales of high-end products [6][7]. - Heineken's collaboration with China Resources Beer has strengthened its market position, making it a formidable competitor to Budweiser in the high-end segment [7]. Strategic Adjustments - Budweiser APAC is focusing on expanding its non-drinking channels and enhancing its product positioning to adapt to market changes [8][9]. - The company is investing in high-end products and has initiated partnerships with platforms like Meituan and Ele.me for online retail promotions [8][9]. - The management acknowledges the need for a strategic shift to address current challenges and drive long-term growth [9].

Core Insights - Budweiser APAC reported a decline in revenue, net profit, and beer sales for the first half of the year, with net profit at $409 million (approximately 2.941 billion RMB), a year-on-year decrease of 24.4% [2] - The company's beer sales reached 4.363 million kiloliters, down 6.1% year-on-year [2] - Following the earnings report, Budweiser APAC's stock initially rose over 6.9% but closed down 5.82% at 8.26 HKD per share [2] Financial Performance - Budweiser APAC's net profit for the first half of the year was significantly lower than the previous year's figure of $541 million, marking a continued downward trend [2] - The decline in net profit has accelerated, with a drop of 24.4% compared to a smaller decrease of 5.91% in the previous year [2] Market Challenges - The company's performance in China has been adversely affected by regional layout and weak on-the-go consumption channels [3] - Increased competition from domestic brands like China Resources Beer and Tsingtao, as well as international competitors like Carlsberg, has posed significant challenges [4] - Consumer preferences have shifted towards lower-priced products, impacting Budweiser APAC's market share in the high-end segment [4] Channel Dynamics - Traditional distribution channels, particularly in dining and nightlife, have struggled, contributing to the overall decline in performance [4][5] - The company is facing pressure to adapt its channel strategy, with a focus on integrating traditional and emerging distribution methods [5] Competitive Landscape - In contrast to Budweiser APAC, Heineken has reported strong growth in the Chinese market, particularly in high-end products, with a 30% increase in sales [6][7] - Heineken's partnership with China Resources Beer has enhanced its market presence and competitiveness against Budweiser in China [7] Strategic Adjustments - Budweiser APAC is adjusting its product positioning and channel strategies, focusing on high-end brands and expanding into non-on-the-go consumption channels [8] - The company is investing in online retail and partnerships with platforms like Meituan and Ele.me to boost sales [8] - Despite these adjustments, analysts suggest that the brand's influence and the establishment of a non-on-the-go channel will take time [9] Industry Overview - The overall beer industry in China is facing challenges, with a reported 0.3% decline in production among major breweries in the first half of the year [10] - The market is currently in a contraction phase, raising questions about the performance of other leading companies in the sector [10]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Budweiser APAC (1876 HK) [4][15]. Core Insights - The company experienced a 5.6% year-on-year decline in revenue for the first half of 2025, with a total revenue of $3.14 billion. The EBITDA also fell by 8.0% to $980 million, reflecting challenges in sales and a slow premiumization process [2][8]. - The report anticipates a marginal recovery in the second half of 2025, particularly in the Chinese market, as the company focuses on expanding non-immediate consumption channels [2][7]. - The target price for Budweiser APAC is set at HKD 10.15, indicating a potential upside of 15.7% from the current price of HKD 8.77 [1][12]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for Budweiser APAC show a decline from $6.856 billion in 2023 to $6.176 billion in 2025, with a slight recovery expected in subsequent years [3][13]. - The net profit is forecasted to decrease from $852 million in 2023 to $741 million in 2025, with a gradual increase to $871 million by 2027 [3][13]. - The EBITDA margin is expected to decline from 29.5% in 2023 to 29.2% in 2025, with a slight recovery anticipated thereafter [14]. Market Performance - The stock has shown a year-to-date increase of 17.09%, with a 52-week high of HKD 10.82 and a low of HKD 6.94 [6][12]. - The average daily trading volume is reported at 21.61 million shares, indicating active market participation [6].