Summary of the Conference Call Transcript Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Consumer Sector - **Outlook**: The sector is believed to be in the early stage of a multi-year recovery cycle that began in Q3 2024, with expectations for gradual improvement in consumer sentiment and spending through 2026E [2][11][12] Key Insights - **Valuation**: MSCI China Consumer Discretionary and Staples are trading at 17x and 15x 12-month forward PE, approximately one standard deviation below the 10-year averages, indicating that current valuations do not reflect a potential consumption recovery [2][9] - **Consumer Confidence**: The China Consumer Confidence Index has been trending upwards since September 2024, suggesting a gradual restoration of consumer confidence despite ongoing challenges in the property market [12][19] - **K-shaped Recovery**: The recovery is characterized by a K-shaped trend, where mid- to high-income consumers in tier-1 cities are expected to lead spending, while lower-tier city consumers remain focused on value for money [3][48] Consumer Behavior Trends - **Shifting Preferences**: A UBS Evidence Lab survey indicates a divergence in consumer behavior, with over 50% of mid- to high-income consumers reporting investment gains and showing strong spending intentions, particularly in premium and experiential categories [3][37] - **Spending Intentions**: The strongest spending intentions are noted in beauty and skincare (41%) and tourism (37%), reflecting a shift towards experiential and premium spending [51] - **Investment Gains**: 64-74% of mid- to high-income consumers reported increased investment returns, with many planning to reinvest or spend on travel, health services, and consumer electronics [40][41] Stock Implications - **Company Ratings**: - Upgrades to Neutral for Fenjiu due to expected benefits from non-business baijiu consumption - Buy ratings maintained for companies like MIXUE, Guming, China Foods, CR Beer, and YUM China, among others [4] - **Dividend Payouts**: Premium baijiu companies are noted for their >75% dividend payout, which is expected to protect share prices from downside risks [4] Structural Growth Opportunities - **Emerging Themes**: Key investment themes for 2026E include changing consumer preferences, corporate restructuring, and industry consolidation, particularly in sectors like home appliances and mass-market consumption [14][50] - **Corporate Restructuring**: Companies are expected to adapt their business models to align with changing consumer behaviors, which may lead to sustainable long-term earnings growth [4][50] Risks and Challenges - **Property Market Downturn**: The ongoing downturn in the property market is anticipated to weigh on household balance sheets, potentially impacting consumer spending [13][48] - **Policy Support**: The pace of recovery is contingent on stabilizing the property market and effective policy implementation to boost consumption [13][48] Conclusion - The China consumer sector is poised for a recovery, driven by improving consumer confidence and shifting spending patterns. However, the recovery will be uneven across different income groups and city tiers, necessitating a nuanced investment approach to capture emerging opportunities while being mindful of potential risks associated with the property market downturn.

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that Budweiser APAC's profitability in the fourth quarter of last year was pressured by concentrated cost recognition and high base effects, but most negative impacts have been absorbed, and a demand turning point is yet to be confirmed [1] - The report states that the EBITDA forecasts for Budweiser APAC for 2025 and 2026 have been lowered by approximately 5% [1] - The rating for Budweiser APAC is maintained at "Neutral," with a target price set at HKD 7.5 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley forecasts that Budweiser APAC (01876) will see natural sales and EBITDA decline by 6.4% and 8.6% respectively in 2025, followed by average annual growth of 4% and 6% in 2026-2027 [1] Group 1: Financial Projections - The target price for Budweiser APAC has been lowered from HKD 8.5 to HKD 7.9, maintaining a "neutral" rating [1] - The expected dividend yield for the company is projected to reach 5.7%, providing downside support for its stock price [1] Group 2: Recent Performance - The company is anticipated to report a 5.4% year-on-year decline in natural revenue and a 10.5% drop in EBITDA for the fourth quarter of last year, compared to declines of 8.4% and 6.9% in the third quarter [1] - Budweiser APAC's business in China remains weak, while growth in South Korea has slowed due to a high base, and strong growth in India has not significantly improved overall group performance [1] Group 3: Marketing and Sales Strategy - Despite increasing advertising and promotional investments in home channels, sales and profits in China continue to be under pressure [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley forecasts that Budweiser APAC (01876) will experience a decline in natural sales and EBITDA by 6.4% and 8.6% respectively in 2025, followed by annual growth of 4% and 6% from 2026 to 2027 [1] Financial Projections - The target price for Budweiser APAC has been lowered from HKD 8.5 to HKD 7.9, while maintaining a "neutral" rating [1] - The expected dividend yield for the company is projected to reach 5.7%, providing downside support for its stock price [1] Recent Performance - For the fourth quarter of the previous year, Budweiser APAC's natural revenue is expected to decline by 5.4% year-on-year, with EBITDA dropping by 10.5%, compared to declines of 8.4% and 6.9% in the third quarter [1] Regional Business Insights - The company's business in China continues to show weakness, while growth in South Korea has slowed due to a high comparison base; strong growth in India has not been sufficient to boost overall group performance [1] - Despite increased advertising and promotional investments in home channels, sales and profits in China remain under pressure [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the news highlights the short-selling ratios and amounts for various companies, indicating significant market activity and investor sentiment towards these stocks [1][2][3] Group 2 - The top three companies by short-selling ratio are Anta Sports-R (82020) and Li Ning-R (82331) at 100.00%, and Tencent Holdings-R (80700) at 90.68% [1][2] - The highest short-selling amounts are recorded for Alibaba-W (09988) at 3.199 billion, Meituan-W (03690) at 1.835 billion, and Xiaomi Group-W (01810) at 1.518 billion [1][3] - Tencent Holdings-R (80700) has the highest deviation value at 45.50%, followed by Beike-W (02423) at 40.51% and China National Offshore Oil-R (80883) at 40.26% [1][3]

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年12月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 百威亞太控股有限公司 呈交日期: 2026年1月6日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 01876 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 18,000,000,000 | USD | | 0.00001 USD | | 180,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | USD | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 18,000,000,000 | USD | | 0.00001 USD | | 180,000 | 本月底法定/註冊股本總額： USD 180,000 ...

Group 1 - Budweiser APAC (01876) announced that Mr. Nelson Jamel will resign as a non-executive director and member of the Audit and Risk Committee to seek other opportunities [1] - Mr. Fernando Tennenbaum will be appointed as a non-executive director and member of the Audit and Risk Committee [1] - Mr. John Blood, Mr. David Almeida, and Ms. Katherine Barrett will no longer serve as Mr. Jamel's alternate directors and will be appointed as Mr. Tennenbaum's alternate directors, effective from January 1, 2026 [1]

Group 1 - Budweiser APAC announced the resignation of Mr. Nelson Jamel as a non-executive director and member of the Audit and Risk Committee to seek other opportunities [1] - Mr. Fernando Tennenbaum will be appointed as a non-executive director and member of the Audit and Risk Committee [1] - Mr. John Blood, Mr. David Almeida, and Ms. Katherine Barrett will no longer serve as Mr. Jamel's alternate directors and will be appointed as alternate directors for Mr. Tennenbaum, effective from January 1, 2026 [1]

Group 1 - Budweiser APAC (01876.HK) announced changes in its board of directors effective January 1, 2026 [1] - Nelson Jamel will resign as a non-executive director and member of the Audit and Risk Committee to seek other opportunities [1] - Fernando Tennenbaum will be appointed as a non-executive director and member of the Audit and Risk Committee [1] - John Blood, David Almeida, and Katherine Barrett will no longer serve as alternate directors for Jamel and will be appointed as alternate directors for Tennenbaum [1]

Budweiser Brewing Company APAC Limited 百威亞太控股有限公司 非執行董事 鄧明瀟 （董事會聯席主席） （John Blood先生、David Almeida先生及Katherine Barrett女士為其替任董事） Ricardo Tadeu （John Blood先生、David Almeida先生及Katherine Barrett女士為其替任董事） Fernando Tennenbaum （John Blood先生、David Almeida先生及Katherine Barrett 女士為其替任董事） 獨立非執行董事 （於開曼群島註冊成立的有限公司） （股份代號：1876） 董事名單及其角色與職能 自2026年1月1日起，百威亞太控股有限公司董事會（「董事會」）成員將包含下列 七名董事： 執行董事 程衍俊 （董事會聯席主席） （John Blood先生、David Almeida先生及Katherine Barrett女士為其替任董事） 鄧明瀟 （主席） 楊敏德 郭鵬 香港，2025年12月31日 郭鵬 楊敏德 曾璟璇 董事會設有三個委員會。各委員會的成員將如下： ...