Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reports that Budweiser APAC (01876) is expected to release its Q3 2025 earnings on October 30, with anticipated further slowdown in the Chinese market due to luxury consumption policies and the impact of food delivery services on online consumption [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The third quarter in China is expected to see a decline compared to Q2, influenced by anti-luxury policies and significant online consumption drag from food delivery services [1] - Budweiser has high exposure in the on-trade channel, which is expected to be affected by ongoing destocking pressures impacting sales and brand mix [1] - The short-term EBITDA pressure in the Chinese market is anticipated to increase [1] Group 2: Sales and Profitability - Goldman Sachs forecasts weak sales in Q3 2025 for Budweiser APAC in China and South Korea, partially offset by strong momentum in India and favorable average selling prices in South Korea [1] - The Chinese market is facing profit margin pressures due to policy headwinds [1] - The firm updated its foreign exchange impact on sales, predicting a 12.6% decline in organic revenue and a 15.8% drop in normalized EBITDA for Q3 [1] - The net profit for Q3 is expected to be $158 million, down from $201 million in Q3 2024 [1] Group 3: Full Year Outlook - For the full year 2025, Budweiser APAC is expected to see a 2.1% growth in organic EBITDA in East Asia driven by average selling price increases, favorable brand and channel mix, and cost efficiencies [1] - In West Asia, organic EBITDA is projected to decline by 11% year-on-year due to ongoing operational leverage decline and channel mix offsetting cost tailwinds [1]

2025全年展望，该行预计百威亚太在亚太东部在平均销售价格上调、有利的品牌和渠道组合转换以及成 本效益驱动下，有机EBITDA将增长2.1%。而亚太西部由于持续的营运杠杆下降和渠道组合转换抵消成 本顺风，预计有机EBITDA将同比下降11%。 智通财经APP获悉，高盛发布研报称，百威亚太(01876)将于10月30日发布2025年第三季度业绩。该行预 计百威亚太在中国市场第三季相较第二季度将进一步放缓，原因包括反奢华政策和补贴推动的食品外送 服务导致线上消费显著拖累，而百威在餐饮渠道on-trade(现场即时消费或即饮渠道)有较高曝光度。同 时，持续的去库存压力进一步影响销量和品牌组合，并料中国市场的短期EBITDA压力将更大。 高盛预计百威亚太2025年第三季中国和韩国销量疲软，部分被印度的强劲势头、韩国较好的平均销售价 格以及原材料成本顺风所抵消。当中，中国市场受政策逆风影响，利润率压力加剧。该行更新外汇对销 售的影响，预计集团第三季有机收入下降12.6%，Normalized EBITDA下降15.8%。以美元计，第三季度 报告净利润预计为1.58亿美元，相比2024年第三季度的2.01亿美元。 ...

高盛发表报告指，百威亚太将于10月30日发布2025年第三季业绩。该行预计百威亚太在中国市场第三季 相较第二季度将进一步放缓，持续的去库存压力进一步影响销量和品牌组合，并料中国市场的短期 EBITDA压力将更大。该行预计第三季中国和韩国销量疲软，部分被印度的强劲势头、韩国较好的平均 销售价格以及原材料成本顺风所抵消。 展望2025全年，该行预计百威亚太在亚太东部在平均销售价格上调、有利的品牌和渠道组合转换以及成 本效益驱动下，有机EBITDA将增长2.1%。而亚太西部由于持续的营运杠杆下降和渠道组合转换抵消成 本顺风，预计有机EBITDA将按年下降11%。 ...

大摩发表报告指，由于市况仍然严峻，将百威亚太2025年盈利预测下调14%，同时将销售额及经营利润 预测分别下调7%及13%，以考虑到中国于第三季啤酒需求持续疲弱，影响到公司的高端和超高端啤酒 类别，而去库存情况仍在持续。大摩将百威亚太2026至2027年盈利预测从2025年的低基数下调8%，目 标价相应由9.5港元下调至9.3港元，评级"增持"。 ...

Industry Environment - The white liquor industry is shifting its endorsement strategy from middle-aged male celebrities to younger, diverse stars like G.E.M. and Zhang Yixing, reflecting a trend towards a more youthful and lifestyle-oriented brand image [2][3] - The light bottle liquor market is experiencing a bifurcation, with traditional brands like Niulanshan facing significant revenue declines due to price competition, while high-quality products like Fenjiu's Guofen are in high demand, indicating a shift towards quality and brand strength in the market [4][5] - The upcoming 2025 China Open tennis tournament will feature enhanced spectator experiences and cultural integration, with Luzhou Laojiao as the exclusive partner, promoting Chinese liquor culture [5] - The high-end beer market is undergoing significant changes, with CR Beer surpassing Budweiser APAC in revenue, indicating the rise of local brands in the premium segment despite overall market contraction [6] - The banquet market is emerging as a new battleground for liquor companies, with several firms reporting double-digit growth in this segment as they adapt to changing consumer preferences [7] - Eight listed liquor companies reported direct sales revenue exceeding 640 billion yuan in the first half of the year, with Moutai and Wuliangye leading the market [8] - The past decade has seen significant changes in the regional liquor market, with notable growth among regional leaders while others struggle due to strategic missteps [9] Key Trends - The trend towards lower alcohol content in liquor is gaining traction, with companies like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao launching lower-alcohol products to attract younger consumers, and the low-alcohol market expected to grow significantly [11] - Regional liquor companies are leveraging local sports events for marketing, enhancing brand connection with consumers, although the effectiveness of such strategies remains to be seen [12] - The first China Liquor Market Prosperity Index was released, indicating a favorable outlook for online sales and low-alcohol products driving consumption [10] Company Dynamics - Songhe Liquor is upgrading its quality strategy with a commitment to long-term aging processes, aiming to enhance its market position [13] - The launch of "Dazhen·Zhenjiu" has seen strong initial sales, indicating a successful entry into the high-end liquor market through strategic partnerships and pricing control [14] - Gujing Gongjiu is integrating cultural elements into consumer experiences, showcasing the importance of cultural heritage in modern marketing strategies [15] - The "Jiuxiao Er" brand is focusing on immediate retail and digital transformation to enhance consumer engagement and market presence [14][19] - Yanghe's summer marketing campaign successfully connected the brand with consumer experiences through sports and cultural events, emphasizing the importance of experiential marketing [20] Emerging Opportunities - The introduction of herbal yellow wine "Bencao Bang" targets health-conscious consumers, indicating a trend towards health-oriented products in the liquor market [21] - A strategic partnership between Huajun Media and Bojiangfang aims to reshape the market for sauce-flavored liquor through quality certification and consumer engagement [22] - The launch of UMEET blueberry distilled liquor exemplifies the industry's shift towards catering to younger, health-conscious consumers with innovative products [24]

Group 1: Industry Overview - The demand for liquor, particularly white liquor, has shown slight improvement as the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day approach, indicating a potential seasonal boost in sales [1] - The beer industry, however, has not yet shown signs of recovery after a prolonged downturn since early 2020, with production in 2024 expected to decline by 0.6% year-on-year [2][4] - The beer sector's revenue for the first half of 2025 is projected at 41.534 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.75%, while net profit is expected to rise by 11.81% to 6.512 billion yuan [4] Group 2: Company Performance - Major beer companies are experiencing varied performance, with Qingdao Beer reporting a revenue of 20.491 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.11%, while Chongqing Beer saw a slight decline in revenue [6] - Budweiser APAC, once a leader in the domestic beer market, reported a 6.1% decline in total beer sales and a 5.6% drop in revenue for the first half of 2025, with net profit down 24.4% [7][8] - The competitive landscape is shifting, with Budweiser APAC's market share falling to around 40%, indicating a significant change in the rankings among domestic beer companies [8][9] Group 3: Market Trends - The beer market has transitioned from a phase of rapid growth to one of saturation, with a notable shift towards high-end products, which now account for 72.7% of Qingdao Beer's sales [12][14] - The average price of beer in China remains relatively low compared to global standards, suggesting potential for future price increases [19] - The rise of the Z generation as a key consumer group is driving demand for craft and low-alcohol beers, with expected consumption growth rates of 17% for craft beer by 2025 [20] Group 4: Strategic Developments - Beer companies are diversifying their product lines, with some entering the yellow wine market and others focusing on beverage innovations to capture new consumer segments [22][23] - The rise of instant retail channels has become a significant sales avenue for beer, with sales penetration reaching 6.5% and expected to grow rapidly [23][24] - The beer industry is expected to recover from its current low point through new product categories and channel expansions, with a projected market size in instant retail expected to exceed 1.2 trillion yuan by 2026 [26]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the liquor industry, particularly the white liquor sector, is showing signs of recovery as demand improves, while the beer sector continues to struggle with declining sales and market challenges [1][2][3]. - The white liquor market is expected to see a gradual improvement in sales velocity as the peak season approaches [2]. - In contrast, the beer sector has not shown any signs of recovery, with production in 2024 expected to decline by 0.6% compared to the previous year, reaching 35.213 million kiloliters, which is only 70% of the peak production capacity seen a decade ago [6]. Group 2 - The beer industry's financial performance is under pressure, with total revenue for the beer sector in the first half of 2025 reaching 41.534 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.75%, while net profit rose by 11.81% to 6.512 billion yuan [8]. - Major beer companies are experiencing a divergence in performance, with Qingdao Beer reporting a revenue of 20.491 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.11%, while Chongqing Beer saw a slight decline in revenue [9]. - Budweiser APAC, once the leader in the domestic beer market, reported a total beer sales volume of 4.363 billion liters in the first half of 2025, a decline of 6.1%, with revenue dropping by 5.6% to 3.136 billion USD [10][11]. Group 3 - The beer market has shifted from a phase of rapid growth to one of stock competition, with the peak in beer sales occurring in 2013, leading to overcapacity issues [15]. - The high-end beer market has become increasingly competitive, with domestic brands struggling to maintain their market share against foreign brands [17][19]. - Despite the challenges, the average price of beer in China remains low compared to global standards, indicating potential for future price increases [29][31]. Group 4 - The rise of the Z generation as a key consumer group is driving demand for craft and low-alcohol beers, with expected consumption of craft beer reaching 230,000 kiloliters by 2025, growing at a compound annual growth rate of 17% [33][36]. - Beer companies are exploring new growth avenues, including diversifying into other alcoholic beverages like yellow wine and soft drinks [39][40]. - The instant retail channel is emerging as a significant sales avenue for beer, with sales in this channel expected to reach 780 billion yuan in 2024, growing at a compound annual growth rate of 23% [50][52]. Group 5 - The article concludes that after several years of valuation adjustments, some leading beer companies now present attractive investment opportunities due to their stable cash flows and generous dividends [56][58]. - The beer sector is showing signs of bottoming out, but a full recovery will depend on improvements in the overall consumption environment [59].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese beer market is experiencing a significant shift, with domestic giants gaining ground against foreign competitors, particularly in the context of the "takeout war" that has revitalized the industry [4][6][30]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The competitive landscape of the Chinese beer market is changing, with domestic brands outperforming foreign giants in the first half of 2025 [4][6]. - In the first half of 2025, China’s beer market saw a decline in overall production by 0.3%, continuing a trend of stagnation [18]. - Despite the overall market decline, domestic giants like China Resources Beer, Qingdao Beer, and Yanjing Beer achieved over 2% growth in sales [19][20]. Group 2: Performance of Major Players - China Resources Beer surpassed Budweiser APAC to become the market leader, with a revenue of approximately 239.42 billion RMB, a 0.8% increase year-on-year [10][11]. - Budweiser APAC reported a revenue of 31.36 billion USD (approximately 224.5 billion RMB), a 5.6% decline year-on-year, marking the worst performance among the top five [9]. - Yanjing Beer and Chongqing Beer are in a tight race for the fourth position, with Yanjing Beer achieving a net profit growth of 45.45%, surpassing Chongqing Beer [13][14]. Group 3: Impact of Instant Retail - The "takeout war" has provided a new growth driver for the beer industry, with instant retail becoming a significant channel for sales [17][21]. - Qingdao Beer reported a nearly 60% increase in sales through instant retail platforms, significantly outperforming the industry average [26]. - China Resources Beer noted a nearly 40% growth in its online business and a 50% increase in its instant retail business [27]. Group 4: Foreign Brands' Struggles - Foreign brands, particularly Budweiser APAC and Chongqing Beer, are facing challenges, with Budweiser's sales in China declining by 8.2% [10][30]. - The high-end beer market, once dominated by Budweiser, is seeing its advantages eroded by the growth of domestic brands [30][33]. - Both Budweiser APAC and Chongqing Beer are shifting focus to non-immediate channels in response to declining performance in traditional immediate consumption venues [36][37].

Group 1 - UBS expects Budweiser APAC (01876) to see a turnaround in the Chinese market by Q4 2025 due to low base effects and stabilization of average selling prices, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] - The target price for Budweiser APAC has been slightly raised from HKD 9.05 to HKD 9.07, implying a projected EV/EBITDA of 7 times for 2026, based on a 5% CAGR in EBITDA from 2025 to 2027 [1] - UBS conducted an on-site visit in Fujian, including factory and market tours, and discussions with Budweiser APAC's CFO, revealing ongoing challenges in the Chinese beer market due to a decline in offline channels such as restaurants and nightlife [1] Group 2 - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027 down by 3% to 2%, considering a projected decline in sales in China during the second half of 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS expects Budweiser APAC (01876) to see a turnaround in the Chinese market by Q4 2025 due to low base effects and potentially stabilized average selling prices, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Group 1: Financial Projections - The target price for Budweiser APAC has been slightly raised from HKD 9.05 to HKD 9.07, implying a projected EV/EBITDA of 7 times for 2026, based on a CAGR of 5% for EBITDA from 2025 to 2027 [1] - The company is expected to maintain stable dividends in 2025 due to progress in the premiumization of home channels and a solid cash balance [1] Group 2: Market Insights - UBS conducted an on-site visit in Fujian, including factory and market tours, and discussions with Budweiser APAC's CFO, revealing that the outlook for the Chinese beer market remains challenging due to a decline in offline channels, including restaurants and nightlife [1] - Given the anticipated decline in sales in China during the second half of 2025, UBS has adjusted its earnings forecasts for 2025 to 2027 down by 3% to 2% [1]