股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年8月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: Swire Properties Limited 太古地產有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年9月1日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 不適用 備註： Swire Properties Limited 太古地產有限公司並無法定股本，及其股本並無股份面值。 FF301 II. 已發行股份及/或庫存股份變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 01972 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）數目 | | 庫存股份數目 | | 已發行股份總數 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 5,757,484,800 | | 0 | | 5,757,484,800 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | 0 | | ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that top shopping centers exhibit strong stability, contrary to the market perception that they are vulnerable to economic downturns and online consumption impacts [2][6] - Despite a projected decline in retail sales growth in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai, top shopping centers have managed to achieve retail sales growth, with specific centers reporting increases of 30%, 6%, and 26% year-on-year [2][3] - The success of top shopping centers is attributed to their ability to attract consumer traffic and popular brands, creating a positive cycle of customer flow and brand presence, which helps maintain rental income stability [2][4] Group 2 - High-end shopping centers are facing challenges due to economic fluctuations, but those in stable competitive environments can still achieve retail growth by attracting fast-growing brands and upgrading their offerings [3][6] - The competitive advantage of shopping centers is not solely based on location or operational capabilities, but rather on their ability to provide an engaging shopping experience, known as "walkability" [4][5] - A robust management system is crucial for commercial real estate companies, as it differentiates them in a market where operational know-how is not scarce [5][7] Group 3 - Top shopping centers and commercial real estate companies are considered valuable assets, maintaining stability even during economic downturns by leveraging their scale advantages and effective marketing strategies [6][7] - Companies that excel in commercial real estate should possess strong management capabilities, stable existing shopping centers, and the ability to successfully launch new projects [7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The real estate sector is at a historical low in holdings, combined with interest rate cuts, which enhances the attractiveness of investments in this sector [4] - The report highlights that the fund holdings in real estate stocks have reached a historical low, with a significant drop in market value from 14.1 billion to 3 billion, a decrease of 80% [19] - The report identifies several driving factors, including low fund holdings, global policy cycles, and high base pressure in Q4 2025, which necessitate further policy support [5] Summary by Sections 1. Real Estate Heavyweight Stock Analysis: Historical Low Holdings - The number of funds holding real estate stocks has reached a five-year low, with a decline from 372 funds in Q4 2020 to 194 funds in Q4 2023 [13] - The total market value of funds holding real estate stocks has decreased significantly, reaching a historical low of 3 billion by H1 2025 [19] - The report notes that the proportion of funds overweight in real estate stocks has remained around 55% over the past five years, indicating a stable but low allocation [23] 2. Impact of US Rate Cuts on Chinese Real Estate Stocks - The report discusses the correlation between US interest rate cuts and the valuation recovery of Chinese real estate stocks, suggesting that these cuts can alleviate pressure on the Chinese yuan and provide opportunities for local rate cuts [56] - It emphasizes that the US rate cuts can improve the financing environment for Chinese real estate companies, thereby enhancing their credit profiles and market valuations [58] - The report anticipates a 92.1% probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September 2025, which could further influence the Chinese real estate market positively [61]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the real estate sector, specifically recommending China Merchants Shekou's issuance of 1 billion yuan in medium-term notes [2]. Core Insights - The real estate sector index increased by 3.9% in the 33rd week, ranking 6th among 31 primary industry sectors [8]. - New home transactions in 20 monitored cities decreased by 21% year-on-year, while second-hand home transactions in 11 cities saw a slight decline of 2% year-on-year [21][29]. - The report emphasizes the importance of effective policies and broad fiscal measures to support the market, with a focus on urban village renovations and inventory management [29]. Summary by Sections Industry Basic Data - The total number of listed companies in the real estate sector is 107, with a total market capitalization of 1,198.27 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 1,148.68 billion yuan [2]. Sales Performance - In the 33rd week, the average daily transaction area for new homes in 20 cities was 20.0 million square meters, reflecting a 2% decrease from the previous week and a 21% decrease year-on-year [19]. - The total transaction area for new homes in the first seven months of the year was 63.8 million square meters, down 8% year-on-year [21]. Financing Activities - Most bond issuances in the week were from local state-owned enterprises, with China Merchants Shekou and Poly Real Estate issuing the largest amounts [27][28]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong product moats, stable rental income from quality commercial real estate, and the stock brokerage business in the existing housing market. Key companies to watch include Greentown China, China Resources Land, Swire Properties, China Resources Mixc Life, and Beike-W [29].

Group 1 - The one-month Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR) has risen to over 2% after remaining low for three months, which is considered expected [1] - HIBOR is anticipated to stay within the range of 2% to 3% in the foreseeable future [1] - The Hong Kong real estate sector is expected to maintain resilience in the coming month until the government announces the Policy Address, as the market is building expectations for new policies [1] Group 2 - Following the interest rate cuts in the US, the real estate sector may experience a short-term respite [1] - The industry is believed to gradually recover over time [1] - Among rental stocks, the company is optimistic about Swire Properties, Hang Lung Properties, Kowloon Development, and Link REIT; for developers, it favors Henderson Land and Sino Land [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley reports that after three months of low HIBOR (below 1.2%), the one-month HIBOR has risen above 2% this week, which was anticipated. The firm believes HIBOR will likely remain in the range of 2-3% in the future [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - The rise in HIBOR has led to Hong Kong property stocks underperforming the Hang Seng Index by 4% over the past two days, which is considered a natural reaction [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - For the upcoming month (until mid-September), the property sector is expected to show resilience due to two main factors: 1) Increased market expectations for new policy support following the policy address on September 17; 2) Anticipated interest rate cuts in the US [1] - Over a 12-month horizon, Morgan Stanley predicts a gradual recovery in the Hong Kong property market, particularly in the residential and retail sectors [1] Group 3: Stock Recommendations - In the retail sector, the firm is optimistic about Swire Properties (01972), Hang Lung Properties (00101), Wharf Real Estate Investment (01997), and Link REIT (00823) [1] - In the residential sector, the firm favors Henderson Land Development (00012) and Sino Land Company (00083) [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley reports that after three months of HIBOR being below 1.2%, it has risen above 2% this week, which was anticipated. The bank expects HIBOR to remain in the range of 2-3% in the future [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - The rise in HIBOR has led to Hong Kong property stocks underperforming the Hang Seng Index by 4% over the past two days, which is seen as a natural reaction [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - For the upcoming month until mid-September, the property sector is expected to show resilience due to increased market expectations for new policy support from the policy address on September 17 and potential interest rate cuts in the US [1] - Over a 12-month horizon, the Hong Kong property market, particularly residential and retail sectors, is anticipated to gradually recover [1] Group 3: Stock Recommendations - In the retail sector, the bank is optimistic about Swire Properties (01972), Hang Lung Properties (00101), Wharf Real Estate Investment (01997), and Link REIT (00823) [1] - In the residential sector, the bank favors Henderson Land Development (00012) and Sino Land Company (00083) [1]

瑞银指出，太古地产自2018年以来累计处置资产规模达580亿元，相对公司目前市值为约1,210亿港元， 展现出拥有卓越的资本循环能力，公司早前承诺的1,000亿元投资计划已累计投入约67%，相信资产循 环将为深圳福田及香港金钟等新项目提供更大发展空间。该行又指，若分拆资产设REITs，将有助于太 古A(00019)降低杠杆，亦可为公司创造经常性费用收入。 智通财经APP获悉，瑞银发布研报称，太古地产(01972)若能设立私募房地产信托基金(REITs)，将可开 拓资产循环新渠道，有助改变投资者对公司的看法，相信市场可能会愿意为新增私人REITs渠道给予更 高估值。该行对其资产净值(NAV)折让由原先50%收窄至45%，相应将目标价由原先23港元上调至26.1 港元，维持"买入"评级，并将2025至2027年盈利预测上调1%至2%，以反映人民币升值。 ...

Core Viewpoint - UBS reports that Swire Properties (01972) could explore the establishment of a private Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT), which would open new channels for asset recycling and potentially change investor perceptions of the company, leading to a higher valuation for the new private REITs channel [1] Group 1: Financial Metrics - UBS has narrowed the discount to net asset value (NAV) from 50% to 45%, raising the target price from HKD 23 to HKD 26.1 while maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] - The earnings forecast for 2025 to 2027 has been increased by 1% to 2% to reflect the appreciation of the Renminbi [1] Group 2: Asset Management - Since 2018, Swire Properties has disposed of assets totaling HKD 58 billion, which is approximately 4.8% of the company's current market capitalization of about HKD 121 billion, demonstrating strong capital recycling capabilities [1] - The company has already invested about 67% of its previously committed HKD 100 billion investment plan, indicating further growth potential for new projects in Shenzhen Futian and Hong Kong Admiralty [1] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The potential separation of assets to establish REITs could help Swire A (00019) reduce leverage and create a source of recurring fee income for the company [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS's research report indicates that Swire Properties could explore the establishment of a private Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT), which may open new channels for asset recycling and positively influence investor perception of the company [1] Group 1: Financial Metrics - UBS has narrowed the discount to net asset value (NAV) from 50% to 45% and raised the target price from HKD 23 to HKD 26.1, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] - The earnings forecast for 2025 to 2027 has been increased by 1% to 2% to reflect the appreciation of the Renminbi [1] Group 2: Asset Management - Since 2018, Swire Properties has disposed of assets totaling HKD 58 billion, which is approximately 4.8% of the company's current market capitalization of about HKD 121 billion, demonstrating strong capital recycling capabilities [1] - The company has committed to an investment plan of HKD 100 billion, with approximately 67% already invested, indicating ongoing development potential for new projects in Shenzhen Futian and Hong Kong Admiralty [1]