机构：国信证券 研究员：黄秀杰/刘汉轩/郑汉林/崔佳诚 营收利润双降但结构明显优化。2025H1 年公司实现营业收入143.04 亿港元，同比下滑8%，主要原因是 新建项目减少，导致建造收入下降；公司实现归母净利2.07 亿港元，同比下滑10%，主要系建造利润减 少和汇兑损失扩大所致。 报告期内，公司收入结构明显优化，毛利率较高的运营收入为99.43 亿港元，同比增长5%；毛利率相对 较低的建造收入为18.44 亿港币，同比下滑49%；公司运营/建造/财务收入占比为70%/13%/17%。 分板块来看，环保能源板块实现运营收入51.42 亿港元，同比增长5.8%；实现建造收入5.39 亿港元，同 比下降69.9%。绿色环保板块实现运营收入31.89亿港元，同比增长1%；实现建造收入0.46 亿港元，同 比下降74.3%。环保水务板块实现运营收入14.77 亿港元，同比增长13.5%；实现建造收入12.38亿港元， 同比下降16.7%。 加大投资者回报力度，中期派息比率提升至42%。随着有现金流流入的运营收入占比不断提升，公司的 分红能力和意愿均有增强。2025H1 公司每股派息15港仙，派息率由2023 年的 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai Industrial Holdings is a comprehensive enterprise with four core businesses: infrastructure and environmental protection, healthcare, real estate, and consumer goods, having evolved since its establishment in 1996 as a red-chip company listed in Hong Kong [1][2]. Infrastructure and Environmental Protection - The company holds concession rights for three major expressways in Shanghai, providing stable revenue and cash flow due to consistent traffic and toll growth [1]. - The water business has a combined daily processing capacity exceeding 20 million tons, ranking among the top in the country, with platforms in Singapore and Hong Kong [1]. Real Estate - The real estate segment reported a loss of HKD 236 million in 2024, primarily due to impairment losses on property projects, despite holding a total land reserve of 4.2 million square meters [1]. Consumer Goods - The consumer goods segment, including Nanyang Tobacco and Yongfa Printing, has seen a recovery, with Nanyang Tobacco's net profit expected to grow by 86% to HKD 560 million in 2024, aided by increased overseas revenue following the commissioning of a factory in Malaysia [2]. Investment Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the sale of a 19.5% stake in Yuefeng Environmental, which will generate HKD 2.33 billion in cash, potentially enhancing dividends [2]. - The stock is considered undervalued with a high dividend yield, showing a price-to-earnings ratio of 5.0x for 2025, and is projected to have a stock value between HKD 17.62 and HKD 18.35, indicating a premium of 22.5% to 27.6% over the current price [2].

Core Viewpoint - The company is a leader in waste incineration and is developing its water and biomass businesses, with a total waste-to-energy capacity of 150,400 tons/day by the end of 2024, ranking first in the industry [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 3.377 billion in 2024, with contributions from the environmental energy, green environmental, and water sectors being HKD 2.924 billion, -HKD 290 million, and HKD 743 million respectively, accounting for 87%, -9%, and 22% of the total profit [1] - Operating and financial income will account for 79% of total revenue by the end of 2024, with core operational indicators improving steadily, including a waste incineration power generation of 328 kWh per ton and a capacity utilization rate of 103% [2] - The company’s financial costs are expected to decrease, with financing costs dropping by 50 basis points to 3.2% and interest-bearing liabilities reduced to HKD 91.7 billion, leading to a savings of HKD 521 million in financial expenses [2] Group 2: Cash Flow and Capital Expenditure - Capital expenditure (Capex) has significantly decreased from HKD 22.8 billion in 2021 to HKD 5.1 billion in 2024, as the industry matures [3] - The company’s free cash flow (FCF) has turned positive for the first time, reaching HKD 4.416 billion, with expectations for further improvement [3] - The annual national subsidies are approximately RMB 3.8 billion, with significant amounts expected to be received, which will enhance operational cash flow [3] Group 3: Dividend Policy - The company’s dividend yield is currently at 6%, with potential for increase, and the dividend payout ratio is expected to rise from 31% to 42% in 2024 [3] - The company plans to maintain a stable increase in dividends, with a projected dividend per share (DPS) of HKD 0.23 [3] Group 4: Investment Outlook - The company’s net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be HKD 3.589 billion, HKD 3.810 billion, and HKD 4.055 billion for 2025-2027, respectively [4] - Based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 8x and considering the positive cash flow and dividend potential, the estimated market value of the company is HKD 28.71 billion, indicating a 23% upside [4]

Capital Operations - Multiple central enterprises have outlined merger and restructuring plans focusing on strategic emerging industries and future industries, particularly in pharmaceuticals and new materials[7] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has relaxed policies on major asset restructuring, encouraging quality enterprises to grow through mergers and acquisitions[7] - Central enterprises are accelerating the integration of group resources and divesting inefficient assets to enhance the industrial chain[7] Dividend Performance - The overall dividend payout ratio for central enterprises reached 50.7% in 2024, an increase of 2.9 percentage points year-on-year, driven significantly by the telecommunications and transportation sectors[9] - China Mobile's dividend amount for 2024 was 100.8 billion yuan, leading the A-share central enterprises in dividends, with a commitment to gradually increase its payout ratio to 75% starting in 2024[9] - In the transportation sector, China COSCO Shipping's dividend reached 25.1 billion yuan, with its payout ratio rising from 15.6% in 2021 to 50.0% in 2022, maintaining a high level thereafter[9] Industry Insights - Traditional sectors like oil, petrochemicals, and steel have seen a decline in overall dividend amounts due to industry cycle fluctuations, yet the median dividend payout ratio for listed central enterprises continues to rise[10] - Over 40% of listed central enterprises in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and basic chemicals have not implemented dividends, indicating room for improvement in dividend policies[10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price not specified [5][15]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 16.34 billion RMB in 2024, representing an 8.5% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 1.474 billion RMB, up 6.8% year-on-year [1]. - The company announced a dividend of 1.33 RMB per share, a 33.5% increase from the previous year, with a payout ratio of 50% [1]. - The company has a strong growth momentum backed by its parent company, Poly Group, with significant internal growth and stable external expansion [3]. Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company generated revenue from property management, non-owner value-added services, and community value-added services amounting to 11.67 billion RMB, 1.96 billion RMB, and 2.71 billion RMB respectively, with property management revenue increasing by 15% [1]. - The gross profit margin for the company was 18.26%, a decrease of 1.35 percentage points from 2023 [1]. - The company’s management expenses decreased by 1.32 percentage points to 6.94% in 2024 [1]. Contract and Project Expansion - As of the end of 2024, the company had a contracted and managed area of 988 million square meters and 803 million square meters, respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 7.1% and 11.6% [2]. - The company achieved a record high in new contracts for third-party projects, amounting to 3.01 billion RMB, a 1.2% increase year-on-year [2]. - The proportion of non-residential property management area increased by 1.1 percentage points compared to the same period last year, reaching 60.9% [2]. Service Revenue and Pricing - The average property management fee for residential properties was 2.41 RMB per square meter per month, an increase of 0.1 RMB from the previous year [3]. - Revenue from value-added services decreased by 3.9% year-on-year to 2.71 billion RMB, accounting for approximately 17% of total revenue [3]. - Non-owner value-added service revenue was approximately 1.96 billion RMB, down 6.4% year-on-year, primarily due to a reduction in the scale of certain business operations [3]. Financial Forecasts - The company’s projected net profit for 2025 and 2026 is adjusted to 1.54 billion RMB and 1.79 billion RMB, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 1.93 billion RMB [3]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at 2.66 RMB, with a gradual increase expected in subsequent years [4].