Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan with a target price raised to HK$240.00 from HK$193.00, indicating a potential upside of 39% from the current price of HK$172.20 [2][3][10]. Core Insights - Meituan's 3Q24 performance showed stable and sustainable profit growth, with revenue and operating profit growth in the instant delivery segment outpacing order volume growth [6][10]. - The report highlights a healthy growth forecast for the dine-in and travel segments, with expected revenue and operating profit growth of 25% year-on-year in 4Q24 [7][10]. - The report emphasizes the improvement in profitability prospects for core local businesses, including food delivery and dine-in services, leading to a projected 23% year-on-year growth in operating profit for 2025 [10][18]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected at RMB 336,900 million, with an expected year-on-year growth of 22% [11][17]. - Adjusted EPS for 2024 is forecasted to be RMB 7.47, reflecting a 15% increase from previous estimates [9][17]. - The adjusted net income for 2024 is expected to reach RMB 47,348 million, with a net profit margin of 14.1% [11][17]. Segment Performance - The instant delivery segment reported a 14.5% year-on-year increase in order volume, with management projecting that flash purchase orders could eventually capture 10% of the Chinese e-commerce market [8][10]. - The dine-in and travel segment saw a 50% increase in order volume in 3Q24, with revenue growth of 25% year-on-year [10][11]. - New business losses narrowed to RMB 10 billion in 3Q24, down from RMB 13 billion in 2Q24, indicating a trend towards improved profitability [10][11]. Valuation - The report employs a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation approach, estimating the food delivery business at USD 78 billion and the dine-in and travel business at USD 49 billion, both based on a 15x P/E ratio for 2025 [18][20][22]. - The community e-commerce and local retail business is valued at USD 63 billion, using a 0.8x P/GMV multiple for 2025 [20][22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][4]. Core Insights - The company's performance continues to exceed expectations, with Q3 2024 revenue reaching 93.6 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 22.4%, surpassing market consensus of 92 billion RMB. Operating profit was 13.7 billion RMB, up 307.5% year-on-year, with an operating margin of 14.6%, an increase of 10.2 percentage points year-on-year. Adjusted net profit was 12.8 billion RMB, a 124.0% year-on-year increase, also above market expectations of 11.8 billion RMB [4]. - The core local business revenue was 69.4 billion RMB, growing 20.2% year-on-year, with operating profit of 14.6 billion RMB, up 44.4% year-on-year. The new business segment generated 24.2 billion RMB in revenue, a 28.9% increase, with operating losses narrowing by 79.9% to 1 billion RMB [4]. - The company's instant delivery orders reached 7.1 billion, a 14.5% year-on-year increase, with daily average orders hitting 76.93 million. The food delivery segment saw a recovery in average order value, with a decrease in the decline rate compared to previous months [4]. - The company is strategically expanding into overseas markets, with the launch of KeeTa in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, indicating significant growth potential in the local delivery market [4]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year 2023, the company reported revenue of 276.745 billion RMB, with a projected increase to 337.075 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.8%. Adjusted net profit is expected to rise from 23.253 billion RMB in 2023 to 44.254 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 90.3% [3][8]. - The adjusted net profit margin is projected to improve from 8.4% in 2023 to 13.1% in 2024, with adjusted EPS increasing from 3.78 RMB to 7.19 RMB [3][8]. - The company has been actively repurchasing shares, having bought back over 600 million USD worth of stock since early September, amounting to approximately 4.2% of its shares [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan-W (3690) with a target price raised to HKD 220, reflecting strong performance and growth potential in core local commerce [2][26]. Core Insights - Meituan's Q3 2024 performance significantly exceeded market expectations, with revenue reaching RMB 936 billion, a year-on-year increase of 22.4%, and operating profit of RMB 137 billion, resulting in an operating profit margin of 14.6% [5][26]. - The core local commerce segment continues to show profitability improvements, with revenue of RMB 694 billion in Q3 2024, up 20.2% year-on-year, and an operating profit margin increase to 21.0% [9][26]. - New business initiatives are showing signs of reduced losses, with new business revenue of RMB 242 billion in Q3 2024, up 28.9% year-on-year, and operating losses narrowing to RMB 10 billion [15][26]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue reached RMB 936 billion, surpassing the expected RMB 917 billion, with adjusted net profit of RMB 128 billion, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus of RMB 117 billion [5][26]. - The adjusted EBITDA and adjusted net profit for Q3 2024 grew by 134.8% and 124.0% year-on-year, reaching RMB 145 billion and RMB 128 billion respectively [5][26]. Core Local Commerce - The core local commerce revenue for Q3 2024 was RMB 694 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 20.2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.3% [9][26]. - Instant delivery transactions reached 7.078 billion orders, with daily average orders at 78.64 million, reflecting a 14.5% year-on-year increase [9][26]. New Business Initiatives - New business revenue for Q3 2024 was RMB 242 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 28.9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12.2% [15][26]. - The company launched its food delivery platform Keeta in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, as part of its ongoing international expansion efforts [15][26]. Market Position and Outlook - Meituan's competitive position in the local life services market remains strong, with expectations for continued growth in both food delivery and local services despite short-term macroeconomic challenges [26][12]. - The report anticipates that Meituan's business will continue to release operational profits, supported by improved governance and management focus on shareholder returns [26][12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (03690.HK) is "Outperform the Market" [1][27]. Core Views - The adjusted performance in Q3 continues to show strong growth, with new businesses accelerating their loss reduction. In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 93.58 billion RMB (+22.4%), net profit of 12.83 billion RMB (+258.0%), and adjusted net profit of 12.83 billion RMB (+124.0%), all exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates [1][7]. - Core local business revenue growth accelerated, with operating profit margin improving year-on-year. In Q3, core local business revenue reached 69.37 billion RMB (+20.2%), with operating profit of 14.58 billion RMB (+44.4%) and an operating profit margin of 21.0% (+3.5 percentage points) [1][9]. - New business revenue in Q3 was 24.2 billion RMB (+28.9%), with operating losses significantly narrowing to 1.03 billion RMB, down from 5.11 billion RMB in the previous year [1][12]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue was 93.58 billion RMB, a 22.4% increase year-on-year, with net profit at 12.83 billion RMB, reflecting a 258.0% increase. Adjusted net profit also reached 12.83 billion RMB, up 124.0% [1][7]. - Core local business revenue grew to 69.37 billion RMB, with delivery, commission, and online marketing revenues increasing by 20.9%, 24.3%, and 18.1% respectively [1][9]. - The operating profit margin improved to 21.0%, although it slightly decreased from Q2 due to seasonal factors [1][9]. New Business Development - New business revenue reached 24.2 billion RMB, with a significant reduction in operating losses to 1.03 billion RMB, down from 5.11 billion RMB in the previous year [1][12]. - The company estimates that the new business, including Meituan Preferred, reduced losses to around 1.7 billion RMB in Q3, with other new businesses contributing a profit of 600-700 million RMB [1][12]. Market Outlook - The company is focusing on expanding its instant retail segment, which is expected to account for over 10% of e-commerce market share by 2027, with projected GTV exceeding 200 billion RMB [1][15]. - Meituan is accelerating its overseas expansion, with Keeta entering Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, in October, which may increase short-term investments but is expected to open new market opportunities in the long term [1][15].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (03690.HK) is "Outperform the Market" [1][27]. Core Views - The adjusted performance in Q3 continues to show strong growth, with new businesses accelerating their loss reduction. In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 93.58 billion RMB (+22.4%), net profit of 12.83 billion RMB (+258.0%), and adjusted net profit of 12.83 billion RMB (+124.0%), all exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates [1][7]. - Core local business revenue growth accelerated, with operating profit margin improving year-on-year. In Q3, core local business revenue reached 69.37 billion RMB (+20.2%), with operating profit of 14.58 billion RMB (+44.4%) and an operating profit margin of 21.0% (+3.5 percentage points) [9][14]. - New business revenue in Q3 was 24.2 billion RMB (+28.9%), with operating losses significantly narrowing to 1.03 billion RMB, down from 5.11 billion RMB in the previous year [12][14]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue was 93.58 billion RMB, a 22.4% increase year-on-year, with net profit at 12.83 billion RMB, reflecting a 258.0% increase. Adjusted net profit also reached 12.83 billion RMB, up 124.0% [1][7]. - Core local business revenue grew to 69.37 billion RMB, with delivery, commission, and online marketing revenues increasing by 20.9%, 24.3%, and 18.1% respectively [9][14]. - Operating profit for Q3 was 14.58 billion RMB, marking a 44.4% increase, with an operating profit margin of 21.0% [9][14]. New Business Development - New business revenue reached 24.2 billion RMB in Q3, up 28.9%, with operating losses narrowing significantly to 1.03 billion RMB [12][14]. - The company estimates that the Meituan Preferred segment reduced losses to around 1.7 billion RMB, while other new businesses contributed a profit of 600-700 million RMB [12][14]. Market Outlook - The company is focusing on sustainable development in the dining and service consumption ecosystem, with plans to accelerate overseas expansion. Meituan's instant retail is expected to capture over 10% of the e-commerce market by 2027, with projected GTV exceeding 200 billion RMB [14][15]. - The company launched the "Prosperity Plan" in September, investing 1 billion RMB to support merchant product and business innovation [14][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan (3690 HK) with a target price adjusted to HKD 226.00, indicating a potential upside of 35.0% from the current closing price of HKD 167.40 [1][4]. Core Insights - Meituan's Q3 2024 performance was strong, with revenue reaching RMB 93.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 22%, surpassing consensus expectations. Adjusted net profit grew by 124% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 14%, up 6.2 percentage points from the previous year [1][3]. - The core business and new initiatives showed growth, with core business revenue increasing by 20% and new business revenue by 29% [1][2]. - The report projects revenue growth rates of 22% for 2024 and 15% for 2025, with core business revenue expected to grow by 21% and 17% respectively [3][12]. Financial Performance Summary - Q3 2024 revenue was RMB 936 billion, with a net profit margin of 14% and an adjusted operating profit margin of 21% [1][6]. - The report estimates that Meituan's revenue for 2024 will be RMB 337.2 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 21.8% [5][12]. - The adjusted net profit for 2024 is projected to be RMB 44.7 billion, reflecting an 85.9% increase year-on-year [5][12]. Business Segment Performance - The food delivery segment saw a year-on-year growth in revenue, driven by improved advertising monetization and reduced user subsidies [2][3]. - Flash purchase orders increased by nearly 35% year-on-year, with significant growth in user numbers and transaction frequency [2][3]. - The hotel and travel segment experienced a 50%+ increase in order volume, with GTV and revenue growth around 25% [2][3]. Valuation and Market Position - The report maintains previous valuation expectations, forecasting a net profit growth of approximately 25% for 2025, corresponding to a PEG ratio of 0.9 [3][12]. - Meituan's long-term competitive advantages include accumulated industry experience, strong traffic, and brand reputation [3][12].

上 市 公 司 社会服务 证 券 研 究 报 告 公 司 研 究/ 公 司 点 评 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 | --- | --- | |--------------------------|-------------------------------| | 市场数据： | 2024 年 12 月 02 日 | | 收盘价（港币） | 167.40 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 7009.05 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 217.00/61.10 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 10,186.72 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 5,502.05 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.0829 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： 资料来源：Bloomberg -40.0% -20.0% 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% 120.0% 140.0% HSCEI.HI 3690.HK 证券分析师 赵令伊 A0230518100003 zhaoly2@swsresearch.com 联系人 李秀琳 (8621)23297818× lixl2@swsre ...

浦银国际研究 公司研究 | 互联网行业 浦银国际 公司研究 HKD 109 HKD 300 HKD 168.7 HKD 200 HKD… SPDBI 目标价 目前价 市场预期区间 注：截至 2024 年 11 月 29 日收盘价 资料来源：Bloomberg、浦银国际 美团 股价表现 （3690.HK） 美团（3690.HK）：业绩超预期，新业务 盈利可期 业绩超预期：公司 3Q24 收入为人民币 936 亿元，同比增长 22.4%，高 于市场预期 1.7%；调整后净利润 128 亿元，同比增长 124%，高于市 场预期 10.1%，调整后净利润率为 13.7%（2Q24 为 16.5%，3Q23 为 7.5%）。由于零售业务效率提升，毛利率同比改善 4.0pp 至 39.3%，销 售费用率同比下降 2.9pp 至 19.2%。公司年初至今已回购约 4.2%总股份。 单均配送收入同比提升，外卖业务海外试水营运：公司 3Q24 核心本 地商业收入同比增长 20.2%至 694 亿元，其中配送/佣金/广告收入分别 同比增长 21%/24%/18%；经营利润 146 亿元，同比增长 45%，经营利 润率同比提升 3 ...

[Table_Page] 公告点评|消费者服务Ⅱ [Table_Contacts] 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 【广发 传 媒 & 海 外 】 美 团 -W （03690.HK） 本地商业效率提升，出海有望成为增长动能 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 24Q3 业绩：公司发布 24Q3 业绩公告，Q3 实现营收 935.77 亿元（人 民币，下同），同增 22.38%；GAAP 归母净利润 128.65 亿元；NON- GAAP 净利润为 128.29 亿元，NON-GAAP 归母净利率为 13.71%。分 业务看，24Q3 核心本地商业实现收入 693.73 亿元（YOY+20.25%）， OP 145.82 亿元（YOY+44.44%）。新业务收入 242.04 亿元（YOY+ 28.91%），新业务 OP-10.26 亿元。期间费用来看，公司 Q3 销售费用 为 179.53 亿元，研发费用为 52.93 亿元，管理费用为 27.98 亿元。 ⚫ 本地核心商业强韧劲，新业务持续减亏。24Q3，即时配送交易单数为 70.78 亿单，YoY+14.54%。外卖业务呈现新的增长机 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (03690.HK) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The performance of Meituan in Q3 2024 exceeded expectations, with total revenue reaching 93.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22%, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 92 billion yuan. Adjusted net profit was 12.8 billion yuan, also above the consensus estimate of 11.7 billion yuan [1] - The core local business profit and new business losses were better than expected, with core local business revenue of 69.4 billion yuan (yoy +20.2%) and operating profit of 14.6 billion yuan (yoy +44.4%) [2] - The delivery profit showed steady growth, with instant delivery transaction volume (including food delivery and flash purchase orders) reaching 7.078 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.5% [3] - The new business losses narrowed more than expected, with the overall new business achieving profitability [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2022 was 220.08 billion yuan, with projections of 276.85 billion yuan for 2023, 337.62 billion yuan for 2024, 390.80 billion yuan for 2025, and 447.46 billion yuan for 2026, reflecting a growth rate of 22.86% in 2022 and a projected 25.80% in 2023 [1] - Adjusted net profit for 2022 was a loss of 6.686 billion yuan, with a projected profit of 38.664 billion yuan for 2024, 49.913 billion yuan for 2025, and 64.193 billion yuan for 2026, indicating a significant recovery and growth trajectory [1] Business Segments - The core local business revenue for Q3 2024 was 69.4 billion yuan, with an operating profit margin of 21.0%, up 4 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Flash purchase volume grew by 35% year-on-year, with user numbers and transaction frequency also showing double-digit growth [3] Future Outlook - The adjusted profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been raised to 45.248 billion yuan, 57.257 billion yuan, and 71.242 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding adjusted P/E ratios of 21, 17, and 13 times [4]