Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan-W (03690.HK) [10] Core Views - In Q1 2025, Meituan achieved revenue of 865 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 18.1%, and a Non-IFRS net profit of 10.9 billion CNY, up 46.2% year-on-year [2] - The core local business revenue reached 643 billion CNY, growing 17.8% year-on-year, with an operating profit of 135 billion CNY, reflecting a 39.1% increase and an operating profit margin of 21%, up 3.2 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The report highlights the healthy growth in food delivery and strong momentum in instant retail, although increased competition in Q2 may impact profits [3] - New business revenue grew by 19.2% year-on-year to 222 billion CNY, with operating losses narrowing by 17.5% to 2.3 billion CNY [4] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3862 billion CNY, 4461 billion CNY, and 4979 billion CNY respectively, with Non-IFRS net profits of 405 billion CNY, 530 billion CNY, and 706 billion CNY [5] - Corresponding P/E ratios are expected to be 17.93, 13.69, and 10.28 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan (3690.HK) [1][4][6] Core Insights - Meituan's Q1 revenue and adjusted profit exceeded market expectations, with total revenue of 86.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18%, and adjusted net profit of 10.9 billion yuan, up 46% year-on-year [2][4] - The core local business operating profit increased by 39% year-on-year, surpassing market expectations by 10% [1][2] - The company is prioritizing long-term ecological investments over short-term profit margins, which may lead to short-term fluctuations in profitability but is expected to strengthen market share and ecological balance in the long run [1][4] Financial Performance Summary - Q1 total revenue was 86.6 billion yuan, slightly exceeding expectations by 1.4% and 1.3% from the report and market respectively [2] - Adjusted net profit for Q1 was 10.9 billion yuan, exceeding expectations by 18% and 13% [2] - Core local business revenue grew by 18% year-on-year, with operating profit margin increasing by 3 percentage points to 21% [2][4] - New business revenue increased by 19% year-on-year, with losses narrowing to 2.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year reduction of 18% [2][4] Business Segment Analysis - Core local business maintained steady growth, with delivery, commission, and online marketing revenues increasing by 22%, 20%, and 15% year-on-year respectively [3] - The management emphasized a commitment to compete effectively in the instant retail sector, planning to invest 100 billion yuan over the next three years [3] - The company reported strong growth in the takeaway and flash purchase segments, with daily order volume growth accelerating to approximately 10% [3] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts a 13% year-on-year revenue growth for Q2, with core local business and new business expected to grow by 10% and 21% respectively [4] - For the full year 2025, total revenue is projected to grow by 15%, with core local business and new business expected to grow by 13% and 20% respectively [4] - The target price is adjusted to 177 HKD, representing a potential upside of 34% from the recent closing price [4][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan (3690.HK) [1][4][6] Core Views - Meituan's long-term ecological investment priority is emphasized over short-term profit performance, with a 1% and 13% beat on revenue and adjusted profit expectations respectively for Q1 [1][2] - The core local business operating profit increased by 39% year-on-year, surpassing market expectations by 10% [1][2] - Active user and merchant numbers reached new highs, indicating strong growth potential [1][2] Financial Performance Summary - Q1 total revenue reached 86.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18%, slightly exceeding expectations [2] - Adjusted net profit for Q1 was 10.9 billion yuan, up 46% year-on-year, also exceeding expectations [2] - Core local business revenue grew by 18% year-on-year, with operating profit margin improving by 3 percentage points to 21% [2][4] Business Segment Analysis - The core local business showed robust growth with delivery, commission, and online marketing revenues increasing by 22%, 20%, and 15% respectively [3] - The food delivery segment saw an increase in user order frequency, particularly among high-frequency users, with daily order volume growth estimated at around 10% [3] - Instant retail competition is being addressed with a planned investment of 100 billion yuan over the next three years to enhance supply chain and merchant digital transformation [3] Financial Forecast and Valuation - For Q2, total revenue is expected to grow by 13% year-on-year, with core local business and new business revenues projected to increase by 10% and 21% respectively [4] - The full-year revenue forecast for 2025 is adjusted to a 15% year-on-year increase, with core local business and new business expected to grow by 13% and 20% respectively [4] - The target price is set at 177 HKD, representing a 34% upside potential from the recent closing price [4][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Meituan-W (03690.HK) [1][3] Core Insights - Meituan's Q1 2025 revenue reached 86.56 billion, representing an 18.1% year-on-year growth, with operating profit at 10.57 billion, up 102.8%, and adjusted net profit at 10.95 billion, increasing by 46.2% [1][6] - The report expresses long-term optimism regarding the company's domestic core business barriers and growth potential, alongside new growth opportunities from overseas expansion [1][6] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2023: 276.85 billion - 2024: 337.59 billion - 2025E: 390.78 billion - 2026E: 451.15 billion - 2027E: 513.08 billion - Year-on-year growth rates: 26%, 22%, 16%, 15%, 14% [2][9] - **Adjusted Net Profit**: - 2023: 23.25 billion - 2024: 43.77 billion - 2025E: 42.79 billion - 2026E: 56.37 billion - 2027E: 70.15 billion - Year-on-year growth rates: 709%, 88%, -2%, 32%, 24% [2][11] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023: 3.79 - 2024: 7.13 - 2025E: 6.97 - 2026E: 9.19 - 2027E: 11.43 [2][11] - **Valuation Ratios**: - P/E (adjusted): 40.8 for 2023, decreasing to 13.5 by 2027 - P/B: 4.9 for 2023, decreasing to 2.3 by 2027 [2][10] Business Segment Performance - **Core Local Business**: - Q1 revenue of 64.32 billion, up 17.8%, with operating profit of 13.49 billion, up 39.1% [6] - **New Business**: - Q1 revenue of 22.23 billion, up 19.2%, with an operating loss of 2.27 billion [6] - **Delivery & Flash Purchase**: - Q1 delivery volume growth remained stable, with operating profit margin (OPM) showing significant improvement [6] - **In-store Services**: - Q1 revenue of approximately 15.1 billion, up 20%, with stable OPM [6] Market Outlook - The report anticipates that while Q2 may see short-term competitive impacts on delivery services, the long-term effects on market share and user experience (UE) will be limited [6] - The company is expected to continue exploring overseas markets, with plans for Keeta to enter Brazil, backed by a strategic partnership and a planned investment of 1 billion USD over five years [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan [2][11] Core Insights - Meituan's Q1 2025 results exceeded expectations with revenue of RMB 86.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 18.1%, and an operating profit of RMB 10.57 billion, up 102.8% year-on-year [6][7] - The core local business showed strong performance with a revenue increase of 17.8% to RMB 64.3 billion and an operating profit rise of 39.1% to RMB 13.5 billion, achieving an operating margin of 21.0% [8][11] - The company plans to invest RMB 100 billion over the next three years to enhance its ecosystem and support industry growth, amidst intensified competition [8][11] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Meituan are as follows: - 2023: RMB 276.75 billion - 2024: RMB 337.59 billion - 2025E: RMB 390.04 billion - 2026E: RMB 451.01 billion - 2027E: RMB 505.43 billion [3][14] - Adjusted net profit estimates are: - 2025E: RMB 44.27 billion - 2026E: RMB 56.66 billion - 2027E: RMB 69.06 billion [3][11] - The report indicates a decrease in the price-to-earnings ratio from 33 in 2023 to 11 in 2027, reflecting improved profitability [3][11] Business Performance - Meituan's Instashopping segment saw significant growth, with over 500 million transaction users and daily non-food delivery orders exceeding 18 million [9][11] - New business revenue increased by 19.2% year-on-year to RMB 22.2 billion, with operating losses narrowing by 17.5% [10][11] - The company is expanding internationally, with Keeta becoming a leading food delivery platform in Saudi Arabia and plans to enter Brazil [10][11]

交银国际研究 1 年股价表现 公司更新 资料来源 : FactSet 5/24 9/24 1/25 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 3690 HK 恒生指数 | 互联网 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 5 月 27 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | | 129.40 | 港元 | 165.00↓ | +27.5% | | | 美团 (3690 HK) | | | | | | | 外卖竞争投入加大，看好美团外卖业务运营能力，维持买入 | 财务数据一览 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 年结12月31日 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 收入 (百万人民币) | 276,745 | 337,592 | 388,895 | 436,083 | 472,495 | | 同比增长 (%) | 25.8 | 22.0 | 15.2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Meituan-W (03690.HK) [1][3] Core Insights - Meituan's Q1 2025 revenue reached 86.56 billion, representing an 18.1% year-on-year growth, with operating profit at 10.57 billion, up 102.8%, and adjusted net profit at 10.95 billion, increasing by 46.2% [1][6] - The report expresses long-term optimism regarding the company's domestic core business barriers and growth potential, alongside new growth opportunities from overseas expansion [1][6] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2023: 276.85 billion - 2024: 337.59 billion - 2025E: 390.78 billion - 2026E: 451.15 billion - 2027E: 513.08 billion - Year-on-year growth rates are projected at 26%, 22%, 16%, 15%, and 14% respectively [2][9] - **Adjusted Net Profit**: - 2023: 23.25 billion - 2024: 43.77 billion - 2025E: 42.79 billion - 2026E: 56.37 billion - 2027E: 70.15 billion - Notable growth of 709% in 2023, followed by 88% in 2024, with a slight decline of 2% expected in 2025 [2][11] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023: 3.79 - 2024: 7.13 - 2025E: 6.97 - 2026E: 9.19 - 2027E: 11.43 [2][11] - **Valuation Ratios**: - P/E (adjusted): 40.8 in 2023, decreasing to 13.5 by 2027 - P/B: 4.9 in 2023, decreasing to 2.3 by 2027 [2][10] Business Segment Performance - **Core Local Business**: - Q1 revenue of 64.32 billion, up 17.8%, with operating profit of 13.49 billion, a 39.1% increase [6] - **New Business**: - Q1 revenue of 22.23 billion, up 19.2%, with an operating loss of 2.27 billion [6] - **Delivery and Flash Purchase**: - Q1 delivery volume growth remained stable despite competitive pressures, with a projected increase in Q2 [6] - **International Expansion**: - Keeta is set to enter the Brazilian market, with a planned investment of 1 billion USD over five years [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 142.40 [6][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 86.6 billion for Q1 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 18%, which exceeded consensus expectations by 1% [2][3]. - Operating profit for Q1 2025 was RMB 10.6 billion, surpassing expectations by 23%, while adjusted net profit reached RMB 10.9 billion, exceeding expectations by 11% [2][3]. - The management indicated that while short-term subsidy competition in the domestic food delivery market may impact profits, the long-term profitability is expected to return to reasonable levels due to the company's strong operational capabilities and market position [3][4]. Revenue and Profitability Summary - Q1 2025 revenue breakdown includes core local business revenue of RMB 64.3 billion (yoy +18%) and new business revenue of RMB 22.2 billion (yoy +19%) [2]. - The company has seen a 25% year-over-year increase in active merchants for its dine-in services, and the flash purchase segment has expanded its product categories significantly [2][3]. - The company anticipates revenue for 2025 to be RMB 385.9 billion, with adjusted net profit projected at RMB 40.5 billion, reflecting a cautious adjustment due to expected subsidy competition [4][5]. Valuation and Forecast - The valuation for the company's various segments includes an 8x PE for the food delivery business, 24x PE for the dine-in business, and 40x PE for the flash purchase business, leading to a target price of HKD 142.40 [4][11][12]. - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of RMB 23.5 billion from the food delivery segment in 2025, with a significant reduction in the previous forecast due to competitive pressures [11][12]. - The adjusted net profit forecast for 2025 is RMB 40.5 billion, with a projected EPS of RMB 6.63 [5][22].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 142.40 [6][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 86.6 billion for Q1 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 18%, which exceeded consensus expectations by 1% [2][3]. - Operating profit for Q1 2025 was RMB 10.6 billion, surpassing expectations by 23%, while adjusted net profit reached RMB 10.9 billion, exceeding expectations by 11% [2][3]. - The management indicated that while short-term subsidy competition in the domestic food delivery market may impact profits, the long-term profitability is expected to return to reasonable levels due to the company's strong operational capabilities and market position [3][4]. Revenue and Profitability Summary - Q1 2025 revenue breakdown includes core local business revenue of RMB 64.3 billion (yoy +18%) and new business revenue of RMB 22.2 billion (yoy +19%) [2]. - The company has seen a 25% year-over-year increase in active merchants for its dine-in services, and the flash purchase segment has expanded its product categories significantly [2][3]. - The company anticipates revenue for 2025 to be RMB 385.9 billion, with adjusted net profit projected at RMB 40.5 billion, reflecting a cautious adjustment due to competitive pressures [4][5]. Valuation and Forecast - The valuation for the company's various segments includes an 8x PE for the food delivery business, 24x PE for the dine-in business, and 40x PE for the flash purchase business, leading to a target price of HKD 142.40 [4][11][14]. - The company is expected to achieve adjusted net profits of RMB 40.5 billion in 2025, with a gradual increase in profitability anticipated in subsequent years [5][22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Meituan, with a target price of HK$181.6, which reflects a 40.3% upside from the current price of HK$129.4 [2][10]. Core Insights - Meituan's 1Q25 results showed revenue of RMB86.6 billion, an 18% year-over-year increase, and adjusted net profit of RMB10.9 billion, up 46% year-over-year, exceeding both forecasts and consensus estimates [1]. - The company is actively responding to increased competition in the food delivery market by optimizing user subsidies to enhance user stickiness, while also committing to international expansion for long-term growth [1][10]. - Revenue from the core local commerce (CLC) segment reached RMB64.3 billion, up 18% year-over-year, with operating profit of RMB13.5 billion, which was 10% better than consensus estimates [1][8]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY25E, revenue is projected at RMB386.1 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 14.4%, while adjusted net profit is expected to be RMB39.3 billion, reflecting a decline of 10.3% year-over-year [7][9]. - The CLC segment is forecasted to generate revenue of RMB66.7 billion in 2Q25E, indicating a 10% year-over-year growth [1]. - New initiatives generated revenue of RMB22.2 billion in 1Q25, up 19% year-over-year, with an operating loss of RMB2.3 billion, which is an improvement from the previous year [1][8]. Forecast Revisions - The revenue and adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been lowered by 1-2% and 11-21% respectively, due to increased investments in the food delivery business and international expansion [1][9]. - The target price was cut by 9% to HK$181.6, translating into a 25x adjusted PE for 2025E [10][12]. Share Performance - The market capitalization of Meituan is approximately HK$792.6 billion, with a 52-week high of HK$213.40 and a low of HK$102.10 [2][3]. - Over the past month, the stock has seen a 1.4% increase, but a decline of 25.7% over the past three months [4]. Shareholding Structure - Major shareholders include Crown Holdings Asia Limited with 8.1% and BlackRock with 5.3% [3].