Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan-W (3690 HK) [1] Core Views - Meituan's Q3 2024 revenue is expected to reach 921 billion yuan, a YoY increase of 20 5% and a QoQ increase of 12% [1] - Core local commerce revenue is projected at 687 billion yuan, with a YoY growth of 19% and QoQ growth of 13% [1] - The food delivery business is expected to generate 459 billion yuan in revenue, with a YoY increase of 15% and QoQ increase of 13%, and an operating profit margin of 17 8% [1] - Flash delivery revenue is forecasted at 67 billion yuan, with a YoY growth of 42% and an operating profit margin of 0 3% [1] - The in-store, hotel, and travel business is expected to achieve 154 billion yuan in revenue, with a YoY increase of 25% and QoQ increase of 11%, and an operating profit margin of 35% [1] - New business revenue is projected at 235 billion yuan, with a YoY growth of 25% and QoQ growth of 9%, and an operating profit margin of -8% [1] Core Local Commerce - Food Delivery Business - The food delivery business is expected to see a 14 6% YoY revenue increase to 459 billion yuan, with GTV growing 11% YoY and operating profit margin improving by 2 9 percentage points to 17 8% [1] - Order volume is expected to grow 12% YoY to 6 12 billion orders, driven by new supply models and marketing campaigns [1] - The "Autumn's First Milk Tea" campaign achieved a daily peak of 90 million orders in August 2024 [1] - Long-term growth is supported by adapting to consumer behavior changes and deepening the supply chain [1] Core Local Commerce - Flash Delivery Business - Flash delivery revenue is expected to grow 42% YoY to 67 billion yuan, with order volume increasing 37% YoY to 960 million orders [1] - The lightning warehouse model is a key driver, with over 30,000 warehouses currently and a projected 100,000 by 2027 [1] - Operating profit margin is expected to decline by 4 8 percentage points due to increased marketing and seasonal delivery costs [1] Core Local Commerce - In-Store, Hotel, and Travel Business - Revenue for this segment is expected to grow 25% YoY to 154 billion yuan, with an operating profit margin of 35% [1] - The "Shen Membership" integration is driving synergies, with GTV expected to grow 35% YoY [1] - The National Day Golden Week saw a 41 2% YoY increase in in-store consumption and a 69 6% YoY increase in tourist spending [1] - The segment is expected to achieve a 21% CAGR from 2023 to 2026 [1] New Business - New business revenue is expected to grow 25% YoY to 235 billion yuan, driven by Xiaoxiang Supermarket [1] - The segment's loss is expected to increase slightly to 1 8 billion yuan, mainly due to seasonal cold chain investments [1] Financial Forecasts - Revenue for 2024-2026 is projected at 3,328 billion yuan, 3,863 billion yuan, and 4,389 billion yuan, respectively [5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted at 33 2 billion yuan, 44 1 billion yuan, and 55 1 billion yuan for 2024-2026 [5] - Non-GAAP net profit is expected to be 41 5 billion yuan, 57 3 billion yuan, and 68 3 billion yuan for the same period [5] - The target price is set at 230 yuan (250 HKD) based on SOTP valuation [5] Market Performance - Meituan-W has outperformed the Hang Seng Index with a 46 8% increase over the past month, 65% over three months, and 80 8% over twelve months [1] - The current stock price is 194 90 HKD, with a market capitalization of 1,185,913 94 million HKD [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for Meituan (3690 HK) with a target price of HKD 228, implying a potential upside of 24.2% from the current price of HKD 183.60 [1][2] Core Views - Meituan's profit growth trend is expected to remain sustainable, leading to an upward revision of 2025 profit forecasts and target price [1] - The company is expected to report a 21% YoY increase in total revenue for Q3 2024, slightly above Bloomberg/Visible Alpha (VA) consensus of 20% [1] - Net profit is projected to surge 98% YoY to RMB 11.4 billion in Q3 2024, with a net margin of 12.3%, outperforming Bloomberg/VA expectations of 106%/109% growth [1] - Local commerce (CLC) is expected to grow 20% YoY, with delivery order volume up 14%, revenue up 18%, and profit up 36% [1] - In-store, hotel, and travel (IHT) business is forecasted to grow 20% in revenue and 32% in profit, with a margin of 35% [1] - New businesses are expected to grow 25% YoY, with quarterly losses narrowing to RMB 1.86 billion [1] Financial Projections - Local commerce revenue is projected to grow 21% in 2024 and 18% in 2025, with adjusted operating profit increasing 30% and 27%, respectively [2] - IHT revenue is expected to accelerate, growing 23% in 2024 and 30% in 2025, with adjusted operating profit increasing 20% and 33%, respectively [2] - New business losses are expected to narrow further in 2025, following a trend of reduced losses in H2 2024 [2] - Adjusted net profit growth is forecasted at 78% in 2024 and 25% in 2025, with a 2025 PEG ratio of 1x and a P/E of 25x [2] Industry Position - Meituan maintains a leading position in China's instant retail and delivery industry [2] - The company's food delivery business, despite high online penetration, continues to meet diverse user needs through products like "Pinhao Fan" [2] - Flash delivery faces competition but has significant market potential, with scale effects and category diversification being key to monetization [2] - Local life services market competition is largely under control, with emerging industry investments still in early stages [2] Financial Data Highlights - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 276.7 billion in 2023 to RMB 420.2 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 8.7% from 2024 to 2026 [3] - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 23.3 billion in 2023 to RMB 59.8 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 15.5% from 2024 to 2026 [3] - EPS is forecasted to grow from RMB 3.71 in 2023 to RMB 9.59 in 2026 [3] - P/E ratio is expected to decline from 45.1x in 2023 to 17.5x in 2026, reflecting improving profitability [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan-W (3690 HK) with a target price of HKD 235.6, up from the previous target of HKD 169.0 [2][7] Core Views - Policy tailwinds and consumption recovery are expected to boost Meituan's growth, with stronger profit elasticity anticipated [2] - Meituan's local life services leadership is expected to benefit from improved market confidence and operational efficiency [2] - The report forecasts 3Q24 revenue of RMB 92.1 billion (+21% YoY) and non-IFRS net profit of RMB 11.2 billion (+96% YoY) [2] - For 2024-2026, the report projects revenues of RMB 327.3/382.2/442.1 billion and non-IFRS net profits of RMB 40.2/58.8/75.2 billion [2] Business Segment Analysis Food Delivery Business - Meituan's food delivery business continues to deepen supply-side reforms, with 120 million users for its "Pinhaofan" service as of August 2024 [3] - New models like "satellite stores" and "collection stores" are helping merchants reduce costs and improve efficiency [3] - 3Q24 delivery orders are expected to reach 7.1 billion (+15% YoY), with food delivery orders at 6.1 billion (+12% YoY) [3] - Unit economics (UE) for food delivery is projected to improve to RMB 1.32 (from RMB 1.1 in 3Q23) [3] In-store Business - In-store GTV is expected to grow 30% YoY in 3Q24, driven by increased online penetration and category expansion [4] - Revenue from in-store services is projected to increase 23% YoY in 3Q24 [4] - Operating profit margin (OPM) for in-store business is forecasted at 36% for 3Q24 [4] New Initiatives - New business revenue is expected to grow 26% YoY in 3Q24 [5] - Meituan's self-operated Xiaoxiang supermarket is focusing on high-quality growth, with losses narrowing sequentially [5] - Overall operating loss for new businesses is projected to narrow to RMB 1.8 billion in 3Q24 [5] Financial Projections - Revenue growth is forecasted at 18.3%, 16.8%, and 15.7% for 2024-2026 respectively [6] - Net profit attributable to parent company is expected to grow 118.7%, 54.6%, and 31.2% for 2024-2026 [6] - ROE is projected to improve from 17.5% in 2024 to 21.8% in 2026 [6] - PE ratios are estimated at 26.4x, 18.1x, and 14.1x for 2024-2026 [2] Valuation - The target price of HKD 235.6 is based on a SOTP model, with valuations for different business segments [9][10] - Food delivery: HKD 125.0 (22x 2025E PE) - In-store: HKD 90.8 (24x 2025E PE) - New initiatives: HKD 19.8 (1.2x 2025E PS)

Revenue Growth - Revenue for Q2 2024 increased by 21.0% to RMB 82,251 million compared to Q2 2023[5] - Total revenue for the first half of 2024 rose by 22.9% to RMB 155,527 million[5] - Core local commerce revenue increased by 18.5% YoY to RMB 60.7 billion in Q2 2024[11] - Total revenue for the first half of 2024 reached RMB 155.53 billion, a 22.9% increase YoY[8][9] - The company's total revenue increased 21.0% year-over-year from RMB 68.0 billion in Q2 2023 to RMB 82.3 billion in Q2 2024[17] - Revenue grew by 12.2% from RMB 73.3 billion in Q1 2024 to RMB 82.3 billion in Q2 2024[31] - Revenue for the first half of 2024 reached RMB 155,526,961 thousand, a 22.9% increase compared to RMB 126,582,096 thousand in the same period of 2023[122] - The Core Local Commerce segment generated total revenue of RMB 115,307,565 thousand for the six months ended June 30, 2024, up from RMB 94,085,282 thousand for the same period in 2023[154][155] - The New Initiatives segment reported a total revenue of RMB 40,219,396 thousand for the six months ended June 30, 2024, compared to RMB 32,496,814 thousand for the same period in 2023[154][155] - Revenue from delivery services increased to RMB 44,086,329 thousand in 2024 from RMB 37,280,261 thousand in 2023, representing an 18.3% growth[158] - Commission income rose to RMB 43,482,551 thousand in 2024 from RMB 35,155,530 thousand in 2023, a 23.7% increase[158] - Online marketing services and other sales (including interest income) grew to RMB 45,207,335 thousand in 2024 from RMB 36,056,311 thousand in 2023, a 25.4% rise[158] - Total revenue for the six months ended June 30, 2024, reached RMB 155,526,961 thousand, up from RMB 126,582,096 thousand in 2023, a 22.9% increase[158] - Total revenue for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 5,606,663 thousand, compared to RMB 5,598,132 thousand for the same period in 2023[199] - Online marketing services and other revenue for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 3,843,000 thousand, up from RMB 3,362,473 thousand in 2023[200] - Revenue from shared bike and shared e-bike services for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 59,708 thousand, an increase from RMB 40,182 thousand in 2023[200] Profitability - Operating profit for Q2 2024 surged by 138.8% to RMB 11,256 million[5] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2024 grew by 95.2% to RMB 14,997 million[5] - Operating profit for the first half of 2024 increased by 98.4% to RMB 16,466 million[5] - Adjusted net profit for Q2 2024 grew by 77.6% to RMB 13,606 million[5] - Operating profit for core local commerce grew by 36.8% YoY to RMB 15.2 billion in Q2 2024[11] - Operating profit for the first half of 2024 surged by 98.4% YoY to RMB 16.47 billion[8][9] - The company's operating profit increased from RMB 4.7 billion in Q2 2023 to RMB 11.3 billion in Q2 2024[16] - The company's adjusted EBITDA rose from RMB 7.7 billion in Q2 2023 to RMB 15.0 billion in Q2 2024[16] - Operating profit for core local business rose to RMB 15.2 billion in Q2 2024, with operating profit margin increasing from 21.8% to 25.1%[27] - New business operating loss narrowed to RMB 1.3 billion in Q2 2024, with operating loss margin improving from 31.0% to 6.1%[27] - Total operating profit increased to RMB 11.3 billion in Q2 2024, with operating profit margin rising from 6.9% to 13.7%[26] - Net profit for Q2 2024 was RMB 11.4 billion, compared to RMB 4.7 billion in Q2 2023[29] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2024 was RMB 15.0 billion, up from RMB 8.1 billion in Q1 2024[30] - Operating profit surged from RMB 5.2 billion in Q1 2024 to RMB 11.3 billion in Q2 2024, with the operating profit margin rising from 7.1% to 13.7%[42] - Core local commerce operating profit increased from RMB 9.7 billion in Q1 2024 to RMB 15.2 billion in Q2 2024, with the operating profit margin rising from 17.8% to 25.1%[44] - New business operating loss narrowed from RMB 2.8 billion in Q1 2024 to RMB 1.3 billion in Q2 2024, with the operating loss margin decreasing from 14.8% to 6.1%[44] - Net profit for the period rose from RMB 5.4 billion in Q1 2024 to RMB 11.4 billion in Q2 2024[46] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2024 was RMB 14,997.3 million, compared to RMB 7,682.4 million in Q2 2023[49] - Adjusted net profit for Q2 2024 was RMB 13,606.3 million, up from RMB 7,659.9 million in Q2 2023[49] - Adjusted EBITDA for the first half of 2024 was RMB 23,067.6 million, compared to RMB 13,944.4 million in the first half of 2023[51] - Adjusted net profit for the first half of 2024 was RMB 21,094.7 million, up from RMB 13,151.3 million in the first half of 2023[51] - Gross profit for the first half of 2024 was RMB 59,586,584 thousand, up 31.7% from RMB 45,215,430 thousand in the first half of 2023[122] - Operating profit for the first half of 2024 stood at RMB 16,466,281 thousand, a 98.4% increase from RMB 8,298,720 thousand in the same period of 2023[122] - Net profit attributable to equity holders of the company for the first half of 2024 was RMB 16,720,459 thousand, a 107.8% increase from RMB 8,046,103 thousand in the first half of 2023[122] - Basic earnings per share for the first half of 2024 were RMB 2.70, up 107.7% from RMB 1.30 in the same period of 2023[122] - The Core Local Commerce segment achieved an operating profit of RMB 24,932,432 thousand for the six months ended June 30, 2024, up from RMB 20,583,591 thousand for the same period in 2023[154][155] - The New Initiatives segment recorded an operating loss of RMB 4,071,258 thousand for the six months ended June 30, 2024, an improvement from the operating loss of RMB 10,221,816 thousand for the same period in 2023[154][155] - The company's basic earnings per share (EPS) for the first half of 2024 increased to RMB 2.70, up from RMB 1.30 in the same period of 2023[169] - The company's diluted earnings per share (EPS) for the first half of 2024 was RMB 2.58, compared to RMB 1.21 in the first half of 2023[171] - The company's net profit attributable to equity holders for the first half of 2024 was RMB 16,720,459 thousand, a significant increase from RMB 8,046,103 thousand in the same period of 2023[169] Business Segments - Revenue from local commerce segment reached RMB 60,682 million in Q2 2024[7] - New business segment reported a loss of RMB 1,314 million in Q2 2024[7] - Core local commerce revenue increased by 18.5% YoY to RMB 60.7 billion in Q2 2024[11] - Operating profit for core local commerce grew by 36.8% YoY to RMB 15.2 billion in Q2 2024[11] - The company's core local commerce segment revenue was RMB 60.7 billion in Q2 2024, with delivery services contributing RMB 23.0 billion[18] - The company's new business segment revenue was RMB 21.6 billion in Q2 2024, with other services and sales (including interest income) contributing RMB 20.8 billion[18] - Core local business revenue increased by 18.5% from RMB 51.2 billion in Q2 2023 to RMB 60.7 billion in Q2 2024, driven by growth in transaction volume and active online marketing merchants[20] - New business revenue grew by 28.7% from RMB 16.8 billion in Q2 2023 to RMB 21.6 billion in Q2 2024, primarily due to growth in merchandise retail business[20] - Core local commerce revenue increased by 11.1% from RMB 54.6 billion in Q1 2024 to RMB 60.7 billion in Q2 2024[33] - New business revenue grew by 15.7% from RMB 18.7 billion in Q1 2024 to RMB 21.6 billion in Q2 2024[33] - The Core Local Commerce segment generated total revenue of RMB 115,307,565 thousand for the six months ended June 30, 2024, up from RMB 94,085,282 thousand for the same period in 2023[154][155] - The New Initiatives segment reported a total revenue of RMB 40,219,396 thousand for the six months ended June 30, 2024, compared to RMB 32,496,814 thousand for the same period in 2023[154][155] - The Core Local Commerce segment achieved an operating profit of RMB 24,932,432 thousand for the six months ended June 30, 2024, up from RMB 20,583,591 thousand for the same period in 2023[154][155] - The New Initiatives segment recorded an operating loss of RMB 4,071,258 thousand for the six months ended June 30, 2024, an improvement from the operating loss of RMB 10,221,816 thousand for the same period in 2023[154][155] Costs and Expenses - Sales cost increased by 13.6% from RMB 42.6 billion in Q2 2023 to RMB 48.4 billion in Q2 2024, but decreased as a percentage of revenue from 62.6% to 58.8%[22] - Sales cost rose by 1.6% from RMB 47.6 billion in Q1 2024 to RMB 48.4 billion in Q2 2024, with the percentage of revenue decreasing from 64.9% to 58.8%[35] - Sales and marketing expenses increased by 6.8% from RMB 13.9 billion in Q1 2024 to RMB 14.8 billion in Q2 2024, with the percentage of revenue dropping from 19.0% to 18.0%[36] - R&D expenses grew by 6.8% from RMB 5.0 billion in Q1 2024 to RMB 5.3 billion in Q2 2024, maintaining a stable percentage of revenue at 6.5%[37] - General and administrative expenses increased by 17.3% from RMB 2.3 billion in Q1 2024 to RMB 2.7 billion in Q2 2024, with the percentage of revenue remaining stable at 3.3%[38] - Delivery-related costs increased to RMB 48,034,761 thousand in 2024 from RMB 40,305,534 thousand in 2023, a 19.2% rise[159] - Employee compensation expenses grew to RMB 22,361,745 thousand in 2024 from RMB 20,724,480 thousand in 2023, a 7.9% increase[159] - Depreciation expenses for the first half of 2024 totaled RMB 3,891,360 thousand, with the majority allocated to cost of sales[174] - Depreciation expenses for right-of-use assets in the first half of 2024 amounted to RMB 1,509,567 thousand, up from RMB 1,362,572 thousand in the same period of 2023[176] - Amortization expenses for the six months ended June 30, 2024, amounted to RMB 118,774 thousand, a decrease from RMB 191,480 thousand in the same period last year[179] - R&D expenses for the six months ended June 30, 2024, increased to RMB 16,899 thousand from RMB 13,741 thousand in the same period last year[179] - General and administrative expenses for the six months ended June 30, 2024, slightly decreased to RMB 86,373 thousand from RMB 88,023 thousand in the same period last year[179] Cash Flow and Financial Position - Cash and cash equivalents as of June 30, 2024, were RMB 54,704.2 million[53] - Net cash flow from operating activities for Q2 2024 was RMB 19,056.6 million[53] - Net cash flow from investing activities for Q2 2024 was RMB 5,236.9 million[53] - Net cash flow used in financing activities for Q2 2024 was RMB (20,543.2) million[53] - Adjusted EBITDA for the first half of 2024 was RMB 23,067.6 million, compared to RMB 13,944.4 million in the first half of 2023[51] - Adjusted net profit for the first half of 2024 was RMB 21,094.7 million, up from RMB 13,151.3 million in the first half of 2023[51] - Net cash flow from operating activities for the first half of 2024 was RMB 25,038.3 million[53] - Net cash flow from investing activities for the first half of 2024 was RMB 28,571.9 million[53] - Net cash used in financing activities for Q2 2024 was RMB 20.5 billion, primarily due to repayment of borrowings and interest, and repurchase of Class B shares[56] - Capital-to-debt ratio as of June 30, 2024, was approximately 23%, calculated as total borrowings and notes payable divided by total equity attributable to equity holders[56] - Total borrowings and notes payable as of June 30, 2024, amounted to RMB 37.5 billion[57] - The company's operating cash flow increased to RMB 25,292,946 thousand in the first half of 2024, up from RMB 19,060,031 thousand in the same period of 2023[129] - Net cash flow from investing activities was RMB 28,571,875 thousand in the first half of 2024, compared to a negative RMB 10,548,255 thousand in the same period of 2023[129] - The company's net cash flow from financing activities was negative RMB 32,413,691 thousand in the first half of 2024, compared to negative RMB 1,697,222 thousand in the same period of 2023[130] - The company's cash and cash equivalents increased by RMB 21,196,521 thousand in the first half of 2024, reaching RMB 54,704,168 thousand at the end of the period[130] Investments and Assets - The company holds a significant investment in Li Auto with a book value of RMB 15.1 billion, representing 5.3% of total assets, and owns 258,171,601 Class A ordinary shares, equivalent to 12.94% equity[62] - Profit generated from the investment in Li Auto for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was approximately RMB 500 million[62] - Total assets as of June 30, 2024, were RMB 285,558,370 thousand, a decrease of 2.5% from RMB 293,029,632 thousand as of December 31, 2023[124] - Property, plant, and equipment as of June 30, 2024, were RMB 29,493,278 thousand, a 13.5% increase from RMB 25,977,845 thousand as of December 31, 2023[124] - Intangible assets as of June 30, 2024, were RMB 30,311,940 thousand, a slight decrease of 0.3% from RMB 30,397,947 thousand as of December 31, 2023[124] - Total equity attributable to equity holders of the company as of June 30, 2024, was RMB 160,555,342 thousand, a 5.6% increase from RMB 152,013,207 thousand as of December 31, 2023[124] - Total liabilities decreased to RMB 125,059,010 thousand from RMB 141,073,265 thousand compared to the end of 2023[125] - Non-current liabilities decreased to RMB 30,803,061 thousand from RMB 40,199,170 thousand[125] - Current liabilities decreased to RMB 94,255,949 thousand from RMB 100,874,095 thousand[125] - Trade payables increased slightly to RMB 23,021,223 thousand from RMB 22,980,506 thousand[125] - Merchant payables increased to RMB

Investment Rating - Maintains a "Buy" rating [3] Core Views - Organizational restructuring has significantly boosted the growth potential of the core local commerce business, with the core local commerce segment contributing approximately 73.8% of total revenue in Q2 2024, generating 60.7 billion yuan [2] - The new business segment showed a notable improvement, with revenue increasing by 28.7% year-over-year to 21.57 billion yuan in Q2 2024, and operating losses narrowing to 1.31 billion yuan from 2.76 billion yuan in Q1 2024 [2] - The company continues to repurchase shares, with a board resolution to buy back up to $1 billion worth of Class B ordinary shares, reflecting strong confidence in the company's future [2] Financial Performance - In Q2 2024, the company reported revenue of 82.3 billion yuan, a 21% year-over-year increase, with operating profit surging 139% to 11.3 billion yuan and adjusted net profit rising 78% to 13.6 billion yuan [1] - The company forecasts revenue for 2024-2026 to be 3,333 billion yuan, 3,829 billion yuan, and 4,382 billion yuan, respectively, with adjusted net profit expected to be 40.9 billion yuan, 50.5 billion yuan, and 63 billion yuan for the same periods [3] Business Segments - The "Pinhaofan" (拼好饭) service achieved a peak daily order volume of 8 million orders in Q2 2024, demonstrating strong performance [2] - The new business segment, including Meituan Youxuan, improved operational efficiency through enhanced product quality and supplier collaboration, leading to higher average order values and reduced losses [2] Valuation and Metrics - The company's market capitalization stands at 719.8 billion HKD, with a closing price of 115.7 HKD and total shares outstanding of 6.22 billion [5] - The company's P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 34.16 in 2023 to 12.22 in 2026, indicating improving valuation metrics [6] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain robust growth in its core local commerce business while continuing to reduce losses in new business segments, driven by ongoing organizational reforms [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan (3690 HK) with a target price of HK$193.00, representing an upside potential of 88% from the current price of HK$102.80 [2][5][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights strong growth in key segments, with a significant increase in order volume for the in-store, hotel, and travel business, which saw a year-on-year growth of 60% in Q2 2024. The operating profit margin is expected to improve to 34% due to stabilizing industry competition [6][11]. - The report also notes that the on-demand delivery segment, which includes food delivery and flash purchase, experienced a 14.2% year-on-year increase in order volume in Q2 2024, with total revenue growth estimated at 17% [11][30]. - The report projects that the core local business operating profit will grow by 28% year-on-year in 2024, up from a previous estimate of 16%, driven by improved profitability in food delivery, flash purchase, and in-store services [12][30]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024 is projected at RMB 334,451 million, reflecting a 19% year-on-year growth, with adjusted EBITDA expected to reach RMB 44,161 million, a 24% increase [15][26]. - The adjusted net income for 2024 is forecasted at RMB 41,503 million, representing a 13% increase from previous estimates [15][26]. Segment Analysis - The in-store, hotel, and travel segment is expected to generate RMB 57,050 million in revenue for 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 25% [26][68]. - The on-demand delivery segment is projected to achieve a revenue growth of 18.7% in 2024, with a significant improvement in profitability due to reduced subsidies and enhanced operational efficiency [11][30]. Valuation - The report employs a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation approach, assigning a 15x P/E multiple to the food delivery business, resulting in a valuation of USD 65 billion, and a 0.8x P/GMV multiple for community e-commerce, leading to a valuation of USD 52 billion [17][19][30]. - The overall SOTP valuation for Meituan is estimated at HK$1,230 billion, supporting the target price of HK$193 [32].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan-W (03690) with a target price of 116.3 HKD [5] Core Views - Meituan's Q2 2024 revenue and profits exceeded Bloomberg consensus estimates Revenue reached 82.3 billion RMB, 2% above expectations, while EBIT was 11.3 billion RMB, 29% above expectations Adjusted net profit was approximately 13.6 billion RMB, 28% above expectations [5] - Core local commerce revenue was 60.7 billion RMB, 1% above expectations, and new business revenue was 21.6 billion RMB, 5% above expectations [5] - The company's core competitiveness lies in its strong merchant base and decades of accumulated user reviews, which solidify its moat [5] Business Segment Analysis Core Local Commerce - Q2 2024 revenue was 60.7 billion RMB, with delivery service revenue at 23 billion RMB, commission revenue at 22.1 billion RMB, and online marketing revenue at 12.3 billion RMB Operating profit was 15.2 billion RMB, 24% above Bloomberg consensus [5] - Food delivery maintained stable growth with improved operational efficiency, user retention, and order frequency The company focused on improving shelf model operations and enhancing "cost-effective" products [5] - Meituan Instant Delivery achieved strong growth with increasing annual transacting users and faster order frequency The company expanded its Meituan Lightning Warehouses and deepened supply chain integration [5] - In-store dining and hotel & travel saw over 60% YoY order growth in Q2 2024 The company expanded its "Shen Membership" program and invested in lower-tier markets [5] New Business - Q2 2024 new business revenue was 21.6 billion RMB, with operating losses narrowing to 1.3 billion RMB, 38% better than Bloomberg consensus [5] - Meituan Youxuan improved operational efficiency through better product quality and supplier collaboration, leading to increased unit prices and price-to-cost ratios [5] - Xiaoxiang Supermarket made significant progress in product, operations, and fulfillment, achieving higher growth and efficiency than industry peers [5] - Other new businesses, including B2B food delivery, RMS, shared bikes, and power banks, all achieved healthy growth and efficiency improvements [5] Financial Projections - The report forecasts Meituan's 2024-2026 revenue to be 3347/3843/4333 billion RMB (previous estimates: 3292/3809/4293 billion RMB) [5] - Non-IFRS net profit for 2024-2026 is projected to be 408/606/724 billion RMB (previous estimates: 364/530/650 billion RMB) [5]

股价（2024 年 08 月 30 日） 118.2 港元 绝对表现% 9.95 11.09 8.54 -11.92 项雯倩 021-63325888*6128 xiangwenqian@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860517020003 香港证监会牌照：BQP120 李雨琪 021-63325888-3023 liyuqi@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860520050001 香港证监会牌照：BQP135 杨妍 yangyan3@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860523030001 ⚫ 整体：利润大超预期。收入端，24Q2 营收 823 亿元（yoy+21%）彭博一致预期为 804 亿元。利润端，24Q2 调整后营业利润 139 亿元（彭博一致预期为 102 亿 元），营业利润率为 16.9%（23Q2 为 8.7%，24Q1 为 9.5%），同环比均明显改 善，主要是核心本地商业利润释放和新业务亏损显著收窄。调整后净利润 136 亿元 （彭博一致预期为 103 亿元），净利润率为 16.5%（23Q2 为 11.3%，24Q1 为 ...

[Table_StockNameRptType] 美团-W（03690） 公司点评 2Q24 业绩点评：利润超预期，经营效率持续提升 | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

到店酒旅将持续受益于线上渗透率提升：2 季度到店酒旅订单量同比增超 60%， 年交易用户（同比增 35%）及年活跃商户数创新高，受益于上线团购产品、打通 神会员体系等。拆分 GTV，休闲娱乐/丽人&医美 GTV 同比增 60%+/50%+，低线 城市 GTV 增速强劲，到店 GTV 增速仍快于酒旅。我们认为，线上渗透率提升是 到店酒旅业务的中长期增长动力，竞争格局趋于稳定，投入更加注重效率，美团 在商户侧的沉淀也利好满足用户侧需求，同时神会员体系利好交叉销售率提升。 王婷 (0755) 8168 2753 wangting9@essence.com.cn 2 图表 8:2Q24 经营活动现金流 250 亿元 规范性披露 投资评级： xx 买入 xx 图表 3: 核心本地商业收入结构 13 14 15 15 14 16 20 20 17 20.4 23.0 21.9 21.1 23.0 10 12 13 13 12 12 16 15 16 18.4 21.0 19.4 20.0 22.1 6 7 8 8 7 7 9 8 8 10.2 11.4 10.9 10.3 12.3 28.7 33.7 37.2 37.0 ...