港股研究丨公司点评丨美团-W（3690.HK） [Table_Title] 美团 FY2025Q1 业绩点评：业绩超预期，加码 生态建设投入 报告要点 [Table_Summary] FY2025Q1，公司实现营收 866 亿元（彭博一致预期 854 亿元），同比+18.1%；经调整净利润 总额 109.5 亿元（彭博一致预期 97.3 亿元），同比+46.2%，营收利润均超预期。展望后市，短 期阶段性补贴竞争扰动盈利能力，长期美团的战略定力与组织韧性共同构筑企业核心竞争力， 看好美团覆盖本地生活服务全场景的"用户+商户+履约"三边交易网络飞轮及一站式生态，即 时零售与到店酒旅双引擎驱动业绩增长，海外扩张与 AI 赋能打开长期空间。预计美团 2025- 2027 年整体营收 3904、4377 和 4839 亿元，经调整净利润分别为 478、576 和 690 亿元。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 丨证券研究报告丨 SAC：S0490517020001 SAC：S0490520080013 SFC：BUX176 赵刚 杨会强 马健轩 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% res ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (03690.HK) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report indicates that Meituan's Q1 2025 performance exceeded expectations, with total revenue reaching 86.557 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18%. Adjusted net profit was 10.949 billion yuan, outperforming Bloomberg consensus estimates [8] - Core local business profits were better than expected, and the trend of reduced losses in new businesses continued. The core local business revenue for Q1 was 64.3 billion yuan (yoy +17.8%), with an operating profit of 13.5 billion yuan (yoy +39.1%), and the operating profit margin increased by 3 percentage points to 21.0% [8] - The report highlights that while competition may impact Q2 profits, the long-term outlook remains positive due to the company's advantages in fulfillment, supply, and operational efficiency [8] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue projections for Meituan are as follows: - 2023: 276.85 billion yuan - 2024: 337.59 billion yuan (yoy +21.94%) - 2025: 389.69 billion yuan (yoy +15.43%) - 2026: 442.51 billion yuan (yoy +13.55%) - 2027: 494.21 billion yuan (yoy +11.68%) [1] - Adjusted net profit forecasts are: - 2023: 13.86 billion yuan - 2024: 35.81 billion yuan (yoy +158.43%) - 2025: 35.91 billion yuan (yoy +0.28%) - 2026: 46.21 billion yuan (yoy +28.70%) - 2027: 60.46 billion yuan (yoy +30.82%) [1] - The report adjusts the 2025-2027 adjusted profit estimates down to 43.4 billion, 54.1 billion, and 68.4 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding adjusted P/E ratios of 18, 15, and 12 times [8] Business Segments - The core local business is expected to maintain healthy growth, particularly in the food delivery segment, with user engagement and purchase frequency improving. The company plans to invest 100 billion yuan over the next three years to promote high-quality industry development [8] - Instant retail business showed strong growth, with transaction users exceeding 500 million and daily active users peaking at nearly 6.5 million. Non-food category orders grew over 60% year-on-year [8] - The travel and hotel segment is also expected to grow rapidly, especially in lower-tier cities, supported by enhanced membership benefits [8] - The new business segment, particularly the overseas expansion through Keeta, is showing significant progress, with plans to invest 1 billion USD in the Brazilian market over the next five years [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (03690.HK) is "Outperform the Market" [6][24]. Core Views - The report highlights that in Q1 2025, Meituan achieved an adjusted profit of 10.949 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.2%, surpassing market expectations [1][9]. - The core local business revenue reached 64.325 billion yuan, growing by 17.8% year-on-year, slightly above Bloomberg's forecast [2][11]. - New business revenue was 22.232 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 19.2%, and the operating loss improved compared to previous periods [3][12]. - The report anticipates a slowdown in core local business revenue growth in Q2 2025 due to increased competition and promotional activities [4][19]. - The company is expanding its overseas business, committing to invest 1 billion USD in Brazil over the next five years [4][19]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Meituan reported revenue of 86.557 billion yuan, an 18.1% increase year-on-year, and an operating profit of 10.567 billion yuan, up 102.8% [1][9]. - The adjusted operating profit margin was 12.2%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.1 percentage points [1][9]. Core Local Business - The core local business generated revenue of 64.325 billion yuan, with significant contributions from delivery services, commissions, and online marketing services [2][11]. - The operating profit for this segment was 13.491 billion yuan, with a profit margin of 21.0%, which is 3.2 percentage points higher than the previous year [2][11]. New Business Development - New business operations reported a revenue of 22.232 billion yuan, with an operating loss of 2.273 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year improvement in loss rate [3][12]. - The report notes that the Keeta model continues to show good growth, and the company is focused on long-term capability building [3][12]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that increased investment in core operations and international expansion will impact profit margins in the short term [4][20]. - The company is expected to face competitive pressures, but its long-term competitive advantages remain strong [5][20]. Valuation and Estimates - Adjusted net profit estimates for 2025-2027 have been revised down to 44.7 billion, 58.7 billion, and 71.8 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a decrease of 13.2%, 10.1%, and 8.7% [5][20]. - The report maintains a favorable view on Meituan's long-term growth potential, supported by its operational capabilities and market positioning [5][20].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (03690.HK) is "Outperform the Market" [6][24]. Core Views - The report highlights that in Q1 2025, Meituan achieved an adjusted profit of 10.949 billion yuan, which is a 46.2% year-on-year increase, surpassing market expectations [1][9]. - The core local business revenue reached 64.325 billion yuan, reflecting a 17.8% increase, also slightly above Bloomberg's forecast [2][11]. - New business revenue was 22.232 billion yuan, up 19.2% year-on-year, with an operating loss of 2.273 billion yuan, showing improvement in loss rate [3][12]. - The report anticipates a slowdown in core local business revenue growth in Q2 2025 due to increased competition and promotional activities [4][19]. - The company is expanding its overseas operations, committing to invest 1 billion USD in Brazil over the next five years [4][19]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Meituan reported total revenue of 86.557 billion yuan, an 18.1% increase year-on-year, and an operating profit of 10.567 billion yuan, which is a 102.8% increase [1][9]. - The adjusted operating profit margin was 12.2%, up 5.1 percentage points year-on-year [1][9]. Core Local Business - The core local business generated revenue of 64.325 billion yuan, with significant contributions from delivery services, commissions, and online marketing services [2][11]. - The operating profit for this segment was 13.491 billion yuan, with a profit margin of 21.0%, which is 3.2 percentage points higher than the previous year [2][11]. New Business Development - New business revenue was 22.232 billion yuan, with an operating loss of 2.273 billion yuan, indicating a loss rate improvement of 4.6 percentage points year-on-year [3][12]. - The report notes that the Keeta model continues to show good growth, and the company is focused on long-term capability building despite current losses [3][12]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that increased investment in core operations and international expansion will impact profit forecasts for 2025-2027, with adjusted net profits projected at 44.7 billion, 58.7 billion, and 71.8 billion yuan respectively [5][20]. - The competitive landscape is expected to remain challenging, but the long-term operational capabilities of merchants and riders are viewed as a strong competitive moat for Meituan [5][20].

Core Insights - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 86.6 billion RMB, an 18% year-on-year increase, aligning with market expectations [1] - Adjusted net profit rose 46% year-on-year to 10.9 billion RMB, with a net profit margin of 13%, up 2.4 percentage points from the previous year [1] - Core business operating profit margin improved to 21%, exceeding expectations of 19%, while new business incurred an operating loss of 2.3 billion RMB, with a loss rate of 10% [1] Business Performance - Core business: Estimated daily orders for food delivery increased by 9-10% year-on-year, with average order value (AOV) experiencing a low single-digit decline due to increased contributions from "拼好饭" and "神枪手" [1] - Flash purchase daily orders reached nearly 11 million, a year-on-year increase of approximately 30%, with non-food categories like 3C, home appliances, and beauty products seeing over 60% growth [1] - In-store travel and accommodation gross transaction value (GTV) grew over 30% year-on-year, with stable operating profit margins [1] New Business Developments - New business segment showed a slight reduction in losses, with the pace of loss narrowing due to ongoing long-term capability building [1] - "Keeta" has rapidly grown to become the largest food delivery platform in Hong Kong and is expanding into Saudi Arabia, covering nine major cities, with plans to enter Brazil and invest $1 billion over the next five years [1] Market Outlook - Increased competition in the food delivery market is expected to lead to higher subsidies, potentially impacting revenue and profit growth in Q2 [2] - Forecasts suggest mid-single-digit year-on-year growth in food delivery order volume, while flash purchase order volume is expected to maintain slightly above 30% growth [2] - New business revenue growth is projected at 22%, with losses expected to widen to approximately 2.6 billion RMB due to overseas investments [2] Valuation - Despite the lower entry barriers in the food delivery market due to increased subsidies, operational and scheduling capabilities for merchants and riders will take time to improve [2] - The company is expected to maintain a leading market share, with a projected profit growth of about 7% in 2025, leading to a target price adjustment to 165 HKD, while maintaining a buy rating [2]

Core Insights - Meituan's Q1 2025 financial results exceeded expectations, with revenue of 86.56 billion (+18.1%), operating profit of 10.57 billion (+102.8%), and adjusted net profit of 10.95 billion (+46.2%) [1] - The company maintains a strong outlook on its domestic core business barriers and growth potential, while also exploring new growth opportunities in overseas markets [1][3] Revenue Growth and Core Business Performance - Q1 revenue growth was driven by the local commerce segment, which generated 64.32 billion (+17.8%) in revenue and an operating profit of 13.49 billion (+39.1%) [1] - New business revenue reached 22.23 billion (+19.2%), although it reported an operating loss of 2.27 billion [1] Delivery and Flash Purchase Insights - In Q1, the average daily order volume for food delivery showed steady growth, supported by improved advertising monetization and subsidy efficiency, leading to a significant increase in operating profit margin (OPM) [2] - Flash purchase segment maintained rapid growth in order volume, achieving an OPM of approximately 10% driven by advertising and subsidy improvements [2] Store and Offline Business Performance - The in-store segment saw a revenue increase to approximately 15.1 billion (+20%), with a stable OPM, driven by growth in various new scenarios [2] - Q2 expectations indicate a slight slowdown in growth for the in-store segment due to competition and seasonal factors [2] New Business Expansion - Keeta is set to enter the Brazilian market, with plans to invest 1 billion USD over the next five years following a strategic cooperation agreement [3] - Despite the anticipated growth in new business revenue driven by Keeta, overall losses are expected to widen [3] Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve a core business operating profit of 53.2 billion for 2025, with an estimated net profit of 45.3 billion, leading to a target price of 156 HKD based on a 20x PE ratio [3]

Core Insights - The company reported 1Q25 revenue of 86.6 billion yuan, an 18% year-on-year increase, exceeding expectations by 1.4% [1] - Adjusted net profit for 1Q25 was 10.95 billion yuan, surpassing expectations by 21%, driven by better-than-expected core local business operating profit and lower-than-expected losses from undistributed projects [1] - The adjusted net profit margin stood at 12.6% [1] Revenue Growth Trends - In 1Q25, core local business revenue grew 18% to 64.3 billion yuan, with takeaway orders expected to maintain a growth rate of nearly 10% and revenue increasing by 14% [1] - For 2Q25, takeaway order volume is projected to continue the same year-on-year growth rate, but revenue is expected to increase by only 5% due to subsidy impacts [1] - Instant retail segment saw a 32% growth in order volume in 1Q25, with expectations of maintaining this growth rate in 2Q25 following the launch of the "Meituan Flash Purchase" brand [1] - The in-store hotel and travel segment's gross transaction value (GTV) grew 30% in 1Q25, with a forecasted 28% growth in 2Q25 [1] Operating Profit Margin (OPM) Insights - Core local business operating profit increased by 39% to 13.49 billion yuan in 1Q25, exceeding expectations by 10%, with OPM rising from 17.8% to 21% [2] - However, 2Q25 operating profit margin for takeaway is expected to decline due to intensified industry competition and increased subsidy investments [2] - The in-store hotel and travel business's OPM is anticipated to slightly decrease in 2Q25 due to factors such as expansion into lower-tier cities and seasonal variations [2] New Business Developments - New business revenue grew 19% to 22.2 billion yuan in 1Q25, with operating losses narrowing to 2.27 billion yuan, better than expectations [3] - For 2Q25, new business revenue is projected to increase by 21% to 26.1 billion yuan, with expected operating losses rising to 2.6 billion yuan due to overseas investment [3] - The company plans to expand into more cities in Saudi Arabia and potentially enter the Brazilian market later in the year [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company has lowered its adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 13% and 5% to 40.9 billion yuan and 54.1 billion yuan, respectively, due to increased subsidy pressures and overseas investments [3] - Despite these adjustments, the company maintains an outperform rating and a target price of 177 HKD, corresponding to 25/26 adjusted P/E ratios of 25/18 times [3] - Current stock price trades at 25/26 adjusted P/E ratios of 18/14 times [3]

Core Viewpoint - In Q1 2025, Meituan achieved total revenue of 86.557 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.1%, and a Non-GAAP net profit of 10.949 billion yuan, up 46.2%, exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations [1] Financial Performance - Meituan's core local commerce revenue reached 64.325 billion yuan in Q1, growing 17.76% year-on-year, with adjusted operating profit of 13.5 billion yuan, up 39.10% [1] - Delivery service revenue was 25.7 billion yuan, a 22.11% increase year-on-year, while commission revenue was 24.1 billion yuan, up 20.05% [1] - Online marketing service revenue was 11.9 billion yuan, growing 15.09% year-on-year [1] Market Competition - Increased competition in the delivery market, particularly from JD.com, is expected to impact Meituan's profits starting in Q2, with revenue growth anticipated to slow [1] - The long-term view suggests that irrational competition in the industry may not be sustainable, with Meituan's delivery business having higher barriers compared to in-store travel and dining [1] New Business Developments - Meituan's new business segment reported revenue of 22.2 billion yuan in Q1, a 19% year-on-year increase, but incurred an adjusted operating loss of 2.3 billion yuan, slightly widening due to increased investment in Keeta in the Middle East [2] - The long-term outlook for Keeta is positive, with potential for significant profit margins in overseas markets, particularly in Brazil [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Meituan's projected revenues for FY25 and FY26 are 388.997 billion yuan and 456.662 billion yuan, with growth rates of 15.23% and 17.39% respectively [2] - Non-GAAP profits are expected to be 40.986 billion yuan and 52.824 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 6.37% and an increase of 28.88% [2] - The company maintains a "buy" rating with a target price of 146.33 HKD, corresponding to a 20X PE for 2025 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company's Q1 2025 financial performance exceeded market expectations, with significant growth in core local business and new business revenues [1] Group 1: Overall Performance - Q1 2025 revenue reached 86.6 billion yuan, representing a year-over-year increase of 18% but a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 2% [1] - Operating profit for Q1 2025 was 10.6 billion yuan, up 103% year-over-year and 58% quarter-over-quarter [1] - Net profit for Q1 2025 was 10.1 billion yuan, reflecting an 87% year-over-year increase and a 62% quarter-over-quarter increase [1] - Non-GAAP EBITDA for Q1 2025 was 12.3 billion yuan, a 52% year-over-year increase and a 7% quarter-over-quarter increase [1] - Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was 10.9 billion yuan, up 46% year-over-year and 11% quarter-over-quarter [1] Group 2: Core Local Business - Core local business revenue grew 18% year-over-year to 64.3 billion yuan, driven by increased transaction volume and reduced subsidy deductions [2] - Operating profit for core local business increased 39% year-over-year to 13.5 billion yuan, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 12.2 billion yuan [2] - The company anticipates a slowdown in revenue growth for Q2 2025 due to intensified industry competition [2] Group 3: Business Segments - **Food Delivery Business**: Q1 2025 food delivery orders increased by 9.3% year-over-year, with over 480 brands launching more than 3,000 high-quality satellite stores [2] - **Meituan Flash Purchase**: Q1 2025 saw strong growth in flash purchase business, with over 500 million cumulative transaction users and daily order volume exceeding 18 million [3] - **In-store Travel Business**: Q1 2025 in-store travel revenue grew 20% year-over-year, with active merchants increasing by over 25% [3] Group 4: New Business and International Expansion - New business revenue grew 19% year-over-year to 22.2 billion yuan, with operating losses narrowing to 2.3 billion yuan [4] - Keeta has become the largest food delivery platform in Hong Kong and is expanding into Saudi Arabia and Brazil, with a commitment to invest 1 billion USD over five years [4] Group 5: Profit Forecast and Valuation - Long-term outlook remains positive for the company's core competencies in instant delivery and international expansion, despite increased competition [5] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 387.3 billion, 447.7 billion, and 510.6 billion yuan respectively, with Non-GAAP net profit estimates of 40.9 billion, 54.7 billion, and 67.6 billion yuan [5] - The target market capitalization for 2025 is set at 830.2 billion yuan, with a target price of 136 yuan per share [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan-W (3690.HK) [1] Core Views - The report emphasizes that Meituan is actively responding to competition in the food delivery sector while awaiting the release of long-term value [3] - The company's Q1 2025 financial performance exceeded market expectations, with significant growth in both revenue and profit metrics [11] Summary by Sections Overall Performance - In Q1 2025, Meituan achieved revenue of 866 billion RMB, representing a year-over-year increase of 18% and a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 2% [11] - Operating profit reached 106 billion RMB, up 103% year-over-year and 58% quarter-over-quarter [11] - Net profit was 101 billion RMB, reflecting an 87% year-over-year increase and a 62% quarter-over-quarter increase [11] - Non-GAAP EBITDA stood at 123 billion RMB, a 52% year-over-year increase [11] Business Segments - **Food Delivery Business**: In Q1 2025, the food delivery segment saw a steady growth with a year-over-year increase in order volume of 9.3%. The company plans to invest 100 billion RMB over the next three years to enhance the quality of the food service industry [7] - **Meituan Flash Purchase**: This segment maintained strong growth, with over 500 million cumulative transaction users by the end of March 2025. The daily order volume for non-food items exceeded 18 million [7] - **In-store and Travel Business**: The in-store and travel segment reported a year-over-year revenue growth of 20% in Q1 2025, with active merchant numbers increasing by over 25% [8] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 387.3 billion RMB, 447.7 billion RMB, and 510.6 billion RMB respectively. Non-GAAP net profit forecasts are 40.9 billion RMB, 54.7 billion RMB, and 67.6 billion RMB for the same years [18] - The target market capitalization for Meituan in 2025 is set at 830.2 billion RMB, with a target price of 136 RMB per share [18][19]