美团-W 03690.HK 公司研究 | 季报点评 美团 24Q4 点评：核心主业好于预期，海 外加大投入 核心观点 1）外卖：单量高个位数增长，单均 OP 同比提升。运营端，我们测算 24Q4 外卖订 单同增高个位数。需求侧，"省"的用户心智进一步强化。供给侧，拼好饭激发更 多消费需求并提高了用户消费频次，品牌卫星店帮助品牌餐饮商家有效实现低成本 扩张，以及神抢手更好满足消费者对品质外卖需求。收入端，宏观因素影响下 24Q4AOV 同比下降、但跌幅环比有所收窄，配送收入、广告变现效率提升，一定 程度上抵消 AOV 下滑对收入的不利影响。利润端，我们判断拼好饭单量占比提升， 低价订单 UE 持续改善，以及货币化率提升，综合作用下单均 OP 同比继续改善、 环比有所下降。展望，宏观经济持续对外卖单量和 AOV 造成影响，同时外卖商户对 营销 ROI 转化效率的看重或使得部分线下预算转投线上渠道，带来广告收入增长的 结构性机会。此外，骑手社保方面，将在二季度开始试点社保方案，持续关注公司 运营提效对相关成本的抵消影响。 2）闪购：全年实现盈利。运营端，我们测算 24Q4 闪购订单同增约 25%。需求 侧，即时零售 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan is "Buy" (maintained) with a target price of 178.12 HKD [5][12]. Core Insights - The overall performance of Meituan in Q4 2024 exceeded expectations, with revenue reaching 885 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 20% [9]. - The core local business showed resilience, with revenue of 656 billion CNY in Q4 2024, up 19% year-on-year [9]. - New business segments, particularly in overseas markets, are seeing positive developments with a revenue increase of 24% year-on-year [10]. Summary by Sections Delivery Business - In Q4 2024, the delivery orders grew in the high single digits, with an improvement in average order profit year-on-year. The average order value (AOV) decreased year-on-year but the decline was less severe compared to the previous quarter [2]. - The operational efficiency is expected to improve with the trial of social security plans for delivery riders starting in Q2 [2]. Flash Purchase - The flash purchase segment achieved profitability in 2024, with a 25% year-on-year increase in orders. The growth is driven by increased convenience in instant retail and expansion in lower-tier markets [3]. In-store and Travel - The in-store and travel segment saw over 65% year-on-year growth in order volume in 2024, with record highs in annual transaction users and active merchants [4]. - The revenue growth slightly outpaced the gross transaction value (GTV) growth, indicating effective marketing strategies [4]. Financial Projections - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 337.59 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 21.99%. The adjusted net profit is expected to reach 35.81 billion CNY, reflecting a significant recovery from previous losses [12][14]. - The company’s valuation is estimated at 10,882 billion HKD, with specific valuations for different segments: 3.5x PS for delivery, 13.2x PE for in-store and travel, and 0.6x P/GMV for new businesses [15].

优于大市 |  | 公司研究·海外公司快评 |  | 互联网·互联网Ⅱ | 投资评级：优于大市（维持）  | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 曾光 | 0755-82150809 | zengguang@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980511040003 | | 证券分析师： | 张鲁 | 010-88005377 | zhanglu5@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980521120002 | | 证券分析师： | 张伦可 | 0755-81982651 | zhanglunke@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980521120004 | | 证券分析师： | 陈淑媛 | 021-60375431 | chenshuyuan@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524030003 | | 证券分析师： | 杨玉莹 | | yangyuying@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524070006 | 事项： 1、2025 年 3 月 31 日，美团会员体系全面升级 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (03690.HK) is "Outperform" [5] Core Views - The core local business is developing smoothly, with a focus on the launch of AI assistants in 2025 and overseas expansion [4][6] - Revenue increased by 20% year-on-year, with adjusted profit margin improving by 5 percentage points [1][8] - The company is expected to continue optimizing subsidies and delivery fees to offset additional investments in rider social security [2][19] Revenue and Profitability - In Q4 2024, Meituan achieved operating revenue of 885 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 20% [1][8] - The adjusted net profit for the quarter was 98 billion CNY, representing a 125% year-on-year growth, with an adjusted net profit margin of 11% [1][8] - The gross profit margin improved by approximately 4 percentage points due to enhanced cost efficiency [1][8] Business Segments - The food delivery business saw a 9% year-on-year increase in order volume, with average order value (AOV) decline narrowing [2][15] - The in-store and travel business experienced over 40% growth in order volume, with a GTV increase of about 24% [3][19] - New business revenue grew by 23% year-on-year to 229 billion CNY, although operating losses increased to 2.2 billion CNY [4][22] Future Outlook - The company plans to launch an AI assistant this year to enhance consumer search and transaction experiences [4][8] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025 have been slightly lowered to 515 billion CNY, while 2026 estimates have been raised to 653 billion CNY [6][23] - The company is expected to continue its expansion in lower-tier cities and overseas markets, with a focus on sustainable growth [4][6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (03690) is "Buy" (maintained) [2][8] Core Insights - In Q4 2024, Meituan's total revenue reached 885 billion RMB, representing a year-over-year increase of 20%, slightly above consensus expectations by 0.6% [5] - Adjusted EBITDA for the same period was 115 billion RMB, showing a year-over-year growth of 207%, but fell short of consensus expectations by 1.7% [5] - Adjusted net profit was 98 billion RMB, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 98%, which was in line with expectations [5] - Core local commerce revenue for Q4 2024 was 656 billion RMB, up 19% year-over-year, exceeding consensus expectations by 0.4% [5] - New business revenue was 229 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 24%, also surpassing consensus expectations by 1.1% [5] Revenue Breakdown - Core local commerce revenue was 656 billion RMB with an operating profit of 129 billion RMB, up 61% year-over-year, exceeding expectations by 10.6% [5] - New business revenue was 229 billion RMB, with an operating loss of 22 billion RMB, which narrowed by 55% year-over-year [5][6] Business Expansion - Meituan's food delivery and flash purchase businesses are expanding, with transaction users exceeding 770 million and active merchants reaching 14.5 million, both hitting record highs [6] - The company launched a 1 billion RMB merchant support plan in Q4 2024 to enhance service quality and operational efficiency [5][6] - Flash purchase services have partnered with over 5,600 large retail chains and 570 brand merchants, covering over 200 cities with more than 30,000 warehouses [6] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 393 billion RMB, 454 billion RMB, and 521 billion RMB, with growth rates of 16%, 16%, and 15% respectively [7] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same period are 48 billion RMB, 55 billion RMB, and 66 billion RMB, with growth rates of 10%, 14%, and 20% respectively [7] - The long-term outlook for Meituan remains positive due to its operational efficiency and business barriers [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (03690) is "Buy" (maintained) [2][8] Core Insights - In Q4 2024, Meituan's total revenue reached 885 billion CNY, representing a year-over-year increase of 20%, slightly above consensus expectations by 0.6% [5] - Adjusted EBITDA was 115 billion CNY, a year-over-year increase of 207%, but 1.7% below consensus expectations [5] - Adjusted net profit was 98 billion CNY, a year-over-year increase of 98%, aligning closely with expectations [5] - Core local commerce revenue for Q4 2024 was 656 billion CNY, up 19% year-over-year, exceeding consensus expectations by 0.4% [5] - New business revenue was 229 billion CNY, a year-over-year increase of 24%, also above consensus expectations by 1.1% [5] Revenue Breakdown - Core local commerce revenue for Q4 2024 was 656 billion CNY, with an operating profit of 129 billion CNY, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 61% [5] - New business revenue was 229 billion CNY, with an operating loss of 22 billion CNY, which is a 55% reduction in losses year-over-year [5][6] Business Expansion - Meituan's transaction user base exceeded 770 million, with active merchants increasing to 14.5 million, both reaching record highs [6] - The food delivery and Meituan Flash Purchase businesses are expanding rapidly, with a cash support plan of 1 billion CNY launched to assist merchants [6] - Meituan Flash Purchase has partnered with over 5,600 large retail chains and 410,000 local merchants, covering over 200 cities with more than 30,000 warehouses [6] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 393 billion CNY, 454 billion CNY, and 521 billion CNY, with growth rates of 16%, 16%, and 15% respectively [7] - Adjusted net profit projections for the same period are 48 billion CNY, 55 billion CNY, and 66 billion CNY, with growth rates of 10%, 14%, and 20% respectively [7] - The report maintains a long-term positive outlook on Meituan's operational efficiency and business barriers [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan-W (3690.HK) [10] Core Views - Meituan has established a robust competitive advantage in the local lifestyle service sector, leveraging its historical strengths from the group-buying era and its extensive merchant resources. The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of 393.4 billion, 441.5 billion, and 488.1 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, alongside adjusted net profits of 50.6 billion, 60.5 billion, and 72 billion CNY for the same years [3][10]. Summary by Sections Introduction: Who Dominates Local Life? - The entry of platforms like Douyin into local lifestyle services has shifted the competitive landscape, making it a key factor influencing Meituan's valuation. The report reviews Meituan's past strategic organization and business expansion to reaffirm its competitive moat in the local lifestyle sector [5][18]. Strategic Organizational Changes and Competitiveness - Meituan's strategic and organizational capabilities are encapsulated in a three-force model: strategic insight, organizational structure, and dynamic iteration. The company has undergone five organizational adjustments in 2024 to enhance its "Retail + Technology" strategy, focusing on streamlining its structure and improving synergy between its delivery and in-store services [6][26]. Three-Sided Transaction Network and Competitive Moat - Meituan has built a comprehensive ecosystem that connects users, merchants, and delivery services, creating a strong network effect. The company has a user base of 700 million annual transaction users and a vast merchant network, which enhances trust and reduces information asymmetry. The report highlights that Meituan's user engagement and merchant efficiency are superior, providing a significant competitive edge [7][8][36]. User Engagement and Community Ecosystem - The report emphasizes the maturity of Meituan's user community and transaction search mindset, which has been cultivated over years of engagement. Despite competitors like Douyin having larger public traffic pools, Meituan's effective distribution of local lifestyle transaction traffic remains competitive [7][8]. Merchant Efficiency and Category Expansion - Meituan's long-term operational efficiency and high potential for category expansion are noted. The company has established a strong marketing ROI for merchants, which is critical for their long-term investment decisions. New entrants face challenges in matching Meituan's established operational efficiencies and trust-based consumer relationships [8][36]. Fulfillment and Operational Barriers - The report discusses the high operational costs associated with building a self-owned delivery system, which creates significant barriers for new entrants. Meituan's investment in advanced algorithms for order dispatch and route optimization further solidifies its operational moat [8][36]. Investment Recommendations and Profit Forecasts - The report projects Meituan's overall revenue and adjusted net profit growth for 2025-2027, reinforcing the "Buy" rating based on the company's strategic positioning and market potential [3][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (03690.HK) is "Outperform the Market" [6][19]. Core Views - The core business of Meituan is experiencing robust growth, with overseas expansion accelerating to support medium-term growth [1][5]. - In Q4 2024, the company reported an adjusted net profit of 9.85 billion yuan, which is in line with expectations, while revenue reached 88.49 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20.1% [1][9]. - The adjusted net profit for the full year 2024 is projected to be 43.77 billion yuan, representing an 88.2% increase year-on-year, driven by improved efficiency in core operations and reduced losses in new businesses [1][9]. Summary by Sections Core Local Business - In Q4 2024, the core local business generated revenue of 65.57 billion yuan, up 18.9%, with operating profit reaching 12.90 billion yuan, a 60.9% increase [2][11]. - The operating profit margin improved to 19.7%, up 5.2 percentage points year-on-year, exceeding Bloomberg's expectations [2][11]. - The delivery service and commission revenue grew by 19.5% and 23.9% respectively, while online marketing services saw a 17.7% increase [2][11]. New Business - New business revenue in Q4 2024 was 22.92 billion yuan, a 23.5% increase, with significant growth in commission and online marketing [3][16]. - The operating loss for new businesses narrowed significantly to 2.18 billion yuan, down from 4.83 billion yuan in Q4 2023, indicating improved efficiency [3][16]. - The Meituan Youxuan segment showed notable improvement in loss reduction, while Keeta remains a primary source of increased losses due to its early-stage investment phase [3][16]. Technology and Efficiency - The company is actively integrating AI technologies to enhance employee efficiency and service upgrades, with a focus on self-developed models [4][18]. - The "Shen Huai Yuan" program has expanded to cover multiple categories, increasing cross-selling opportunities and consumer engagement [4][18]. - The gradual implementation of social security for delivery personnel is expected to increase costs but may also enhance operational efficiency in the long run [4][18]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 337.59 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 22.0%, and adjusted net profit is expected to reach 43.77 billion yuan [8][20]. - The adjusted net profit forecast for 2025 has been slightly reduced to 51.52 billion yuan, while the 2026 forecast has been raised to 65.31 billion yuan [5][19]. - The company is expected to maintain a strong growth trajectory, supported by ongoing improvements in online penetration and expansion into new markets [5][19].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][13]. Core Views - The core local business segment's profit exceeded expectations, and Keeta is building a second growth curve [6][13]. - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 88.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.1%, and adjusted EBITDA of 11.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 207.7% [6][10]. - As of December 31, 2024, the company had cash and cash equivalents of 70.8 billion yuan [6][12]. Summary by Sections Business Overview - The company is expanding its multi-category supply and increasing support for merchants in its takeaway and instant retail businesses. New models like "Pin Hao Fan" and "Brand Satellite Stores" are being introduced to help merchants increase sales and attract new customers [7]. - The company launched a 1 billion yuan "Merchant Support Plan" in Q4 2024 to optimize merchant efficiency and innovation through cash and subsidies [7]. Performance Metrics - The core local business generated revenue of 65.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.9%, with operating profit of 12.9 billion yuan, up 60.9%, and an operating margin of 19.7% [9]. - New business revenue in Q4 2024 was 22.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.5%, with operating losses narrowing to 2.2 billion yuan, a 55.0% improvement [9]. Financial Data and Forecasts - The company forecasts revenues of 337.6 billion yuan for 2024, 394.2 billion yuan for 2025, and 455.4 billion yuan for 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 21.99%, 16.76%, and 15.53% respectively [10]. - The net profit for 2024 is projected at 35.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 158.43% [10]. - The estimated reasonable market value for 2025 is between 1.09 trillion and 1.27 trillion Hong Kong dollars, translating to a reasonable share price range of 179 to 209 Hong Kong dollars [13][15].

Financial Performance - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, the total revenue reached RMB 337,591,576, representing a 22.0% increase compared to RMB 276,744,954 for the previous year[7]. - The operating profit for the same period was RMB 36,844,956, which is 10.9% of total revenue, showing a significant increase of 174.6% from RMB 13,415,387[7]. - The net profit for the fiscal year was RMB 35,808,322, accounting for 10.6% of total revenue, up 158.4% from RMB 13,857,331[7]. - Adjusted EBITDA for the year was RMB 49,119,400, representing 14.5% of total revenue, a 105.7% increase from RMB 23,878,018[7]. - The total revenue for the three months ending December 31, 2024, was RMB 88,487,296, a 20.1% increase from RMB 73,695,951 in the same period last year[5]. - The operating profit for the three months was RMB 6,693,499, which is 7.6% of total revenue, reflecting a substantial increase of 280.7% from RMB 1,758,134[5]. - The adjusted net profit for the three months was RMB 9,848,538, accounting for 11.1% of total revenue, up 125.1% from RMB 4,374,712[5]. - Total revenue increased by 20.1% from RMB 73.7 billion in Q4 2023 to RMB 88.5 billion in Q4 2024, with both reporting segments showing growth[26]. - The net profit for Q4 2024 was RMB 6.2 billion, compared to RMB 12.9 billion in Q3 2024, reflecting a significant decrease due to seasonal factors[44]. - Operating profit for Q4 2024 was RMB 6.7 billion, with an operating profit margin of 7.6%, up from RMB 1.8 billion and 2.4% in Q4 2023[38]. - The company reported a net profit of RMB 62 billion in Q4 2024, down from RMB 129 billion in Q3 2024[62]. - The company reported a significant increase in cash and cash equivalents, ending the year with RMB 70,834,097, up from RMB 33,339,754 at the beginning of the year[112]. Revenue Growth - In 2024, the company's revenue increased by 22.0% to RMB 337.6 billion, up from RMB 276.7 billion in 2023[15]. - The core local business segment's revenue grew by 20.9% to RMB 250.2 billion, with operating profit increasing by 35.4% to RMB 52.4 billion and operating margin rising to 20.9%[16]. - Revenue from delivery services for the three months was RMB 26,194,820, compared to RMB 21,927,023 in the same period last year, marking a growth of 19.5%[9]. - The company reported a significant increase in commission revenue, which reached RMB 24,968,497 for the three months, up 24.9% from RMB 19,996,305[9]. - The company’s commission revenue for the year ended December 31, 2024, was RMB 95,340,956 thousand, compared to RMB 76,688,543 thousand in 2023, reflecting an increase of approximately 24%[120]. - The company’s online marketing services revenue increased to RMB 49,240,392 thousand in 2024 from RMB 40,513,216 thousand in 2023, representing a growth of approximately 21%[120]. Cost and Expenses - Sales costs increased by 13.0% from RMB 48.7 billion in Q4 2023 to RMB 55.0 billion in Q4 2024, but the sales cost as a percentage of revenue decreased from 66.1% to 62.2%[30]. - Sales and marketing expenses for Q4 2024 were RMB 17.3 billion, accounting for 19.6% of revenue, down from 22.7% in Q4 2023[32]. - R&D expenses remained stable at RMB 5.4 billion in Q4 2024, with the percentage of revenue decreasing from 7.4% to 6.1%[33]. - General and administrative expenses increased by 8.8% to RMB 2.9 billion in Q4 2024, maintaining a stable revenue percentage of 3.3%[34]. - The company’s logistics expenses increased by RMB 17,941,184 thousand, from RMB 106,209,101 thousand in 2023 to RMB 124,150,285 thousand in 2024, marking a rise of approximately 17%[121]. Profitability Metrics - Adjusted net profit for the year was RMB 43,772,449, up from RMB 23,253,418, indicating an increase of about 88%[88]. - Basic earnings per share increased to RMB 5.85 from RMB 2.23, reflecting a growth of approximately 162%[98]. - The company reported a significant increase in operating profit for the core local business segment, rising from RMB 8.0 billion in Q4 2023 to RMB 12.9 billion in Q4 2024, with an operating profit margin increase of 5.2 percentage points to 19.7%[39]. - The company reported a net profit margin of 15%, up from 12% in the previous year[148]. Cash Flow and Investments - Operating cash flow for the year reached RMB 57,146,784, compared to RMB 40,521,850 in the previous year, reflecting a growth of approximately 41%[91]. - The company experienced a net cash inflow from investment activities of RMB 10,205,252, a turnaround from a cash outflow of RMB 24,663,844 in the previous year[91]. - Financing activities resulted in a net cash outflow of RMB 30,414,660, primarily due to share buybacks and repayment of loans[95]. - Net cash flow from operating activities for the year ended December 31, 2024, was RMB 57,146,784, an increase from RMB 40,521,850 in 2023, representing a growth of approximately 41%[112]. Corporate Governance and Strategy - The company is committed to maintaining strict corporate governance standards and has adopted the principles and code provisions of the corporate governance code[140]. - The board of directors believes that the current arrangement of having the same individual serve as both chairman and CEO ensures effective internal leadership and decision-making[140]. - The company plans to expand its market presence in Southeast Asia, targeting a 30% increase in user acquisition in the next fiscal year[148]. - Future guidance indicates a revenue growth target of 25% for the upcoming fiscal year[148]. - The company is exploring potential acquisitions to enhance its service offerings and expand its market share[148]. Market and User Metrics - The company reported a significant increase in active merchants, with a total of 1.2 million active merchants on the platform, representing a 15% year-over-year growth[148]. - The total transaction value on the platform reached $25 billion, an increase of 20% compared to the previous year[148]. - The number of transactions processed during the quarter was 500 million, reflecting a 10% increase from the last quarter[148]. - The number of transaction users increased to 300 million, marking a 12% growth year-over-year[148]. Other Financial Metrics - The company’s total assets increased to RMB 324,354,917 thousand in 2024 from RMB 293,029,632 thousand in 2023, reflecting a growth of approximately 10.7%[102]. - Total liabilities increased to RMB 151,750,839 thousand from RMB 141,073,265 thousand, representing a rise of approximately 7.5%[103]. - The equity attributable to the company's shareholders grew to RMB 172,662,960 thousand from RMB 152,013,207 thousand, an increase of about 13.6%[102]. - The company’s cumulative losses decreased from RMB 175,616,885 thousand to RMB 139,801,785 thousand, reflecting a reduction in accumulated losses[104].