证券研究报告 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------|--------|--------|--------|--------|-----------------------------------|---------|---------|---------|---------| | 资产负债表（百万元） | 2023 | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | 利润表（百万元） | 2023 | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 现金及现金等价物 | 33340 | 44243 | 62733 | 76892 | 营业收入 | 276745 | 337517 | 393081 | 451113 | | 应收款项 | 11235 | 30515 | 35539 | 40786 | 营业成本 | 179554 | 213166 | 237102 | 267367 | | 存货净额 | 1305 | 2850 | 3162 | 3560 | | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan-W (3690) with a target price of 158.8 HKD [18][30][40]. Core Insights - Meituan's Q2 revenue reached 82.25 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.0%. The adjusted net profit was 13.61 billion RMB, up 77.6% year-on-year. Core local commerce revenue was 60.68 billion RMB, with an operating profit of 15.23 billion RMB, significantly exceeding expectations [30][29][16]. - The report highlights the synergy between home delivery and in-store services, which is expected to enhance operational efficiency and drive growth in local life services [30][29]. - New initiatives are showing improved efficiency and reduced losses, with a Q2 operating profit margin of -6.1%, a year-on-year increase of 24.9 percentage points [30][29]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q2 revenue increased by 21% to 82.25 billion RMB, with core local commerce and new initiatives revenues growing by 19% and 29% respectively [3][30]. - Instant delivery orders rose by 14% year-on-year to 6.2 billion orders, with operating profit margin improving to 13.7% [4][30]. - The adjusted net profit forecast for FY2024E-FY2026E is set at 41.3 billion, 51.5 billion, and 61.7 billion RMB respectively, reflecting a slight upward adjustment from previous estimates [16][30]. Business Segments - Core local commerce showed robust growth with delivery services, commissions, and online marketing services increasing by 13%, 20%, and 20% respectively [15][30]. - New business initiatives are expected to grow revenue by 25%, driven by improved pricing strategies and operational efficiencies [30][29]. Valuation - The report employs a Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation method, indicating a total value of 1,000.3 billion RMB for Meituan, with various segments contributing differently to the overall valuation [9][30]. - The target price of 158.8 HKD reflects a strong upside potential based on the current market conditions and company performance [18][30].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [21][17] Core Views - The company's Q2 2024 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue reaching RMB 82.3 billion, a 21% YoY increase, and Non-IFRS net profit of RMB 13.6 billion, up 77.6% YoY [12] - Local core commerce revenue grew 18.5% YoY to RMB 60.7 billion, with operating profit increasing 36.8% YoY to RMB 15.2 billion, and operating margin improving by 3.3 percentage points to 25.1% [12] - New business revenue increased 28.7% YoY to RMB 21.6 billion, with operating losses narrowing by 74.7% to RMB 1.3 billion, and the loss ratio improving by 24.9 percentage points YoY [13] Business Segments Food Delivery and Instant Retail - Food delivery and instant retail saw a 14.2% YoY increase in daily orders, reaching 67.77 million, with total transaction volume hitting 6.167 billion in Q2 2024 [12] - The "Pinhao Fan" service achieved a record daily order peak of 8 million, driven by affordable offerings that lowered the threshold for user orders and improved retention [12] - Flash delivery expanded its coverage, with the self-operated alcohol retail brand "Waima Songjiu" continuing to grow, and online medical insurance payments for non-prescription drugs driving growth in the healthcare category [12] In-Store and Hotel & Travel - In-store and hotel & travel business saw order volume grow over 60% YoY, with record-high annual transacting users and active merchants [12] - Leisure and entertainment categories experienced over 60% YoY growth in GTV and order volume, while beauty and medical aesthetics categories saw GTV growth exceeding 50% [12] - The "Shen Membership" system was upgraded and extended to the in-store and hotel & travel categories, enhancing the company's brand as a value-for-money platform [12] New Businesses - Meituan Select improved product quality and pricing through enhanced supply chain management, driving overall operational efficiency [13] - Xiaoxiang Supermarket led industry growth with continuous efficiency improvements, while B2B food supply chain services, restaurant management systems, and shared mobility services also achieved healthy growth [13] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to reach RMB 3.357 trillion, RMB 3.874 trillion, and RMB 4.410 trillion in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [13] - Non-IFRS net profit is expected to be RMB 40.5 billion, RMB 50.0 billion, and RMB 65.8 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [13] - The P/E ratio is forecasted at 14.47x, 11.72x, and 8.90x for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [13] Valuation Metrics - The company's ROE (Return on Equity) is expected to improve significantly, from 9.11% in 2023 to 20.11% in 2026 [23] - The P/B (Price-to-Book) ratio is projected to decline from 4.21 in 2023 to 2.28 in 2026, indicating improving valuation metrics [23]

Financial Data and Key Metrics - No specific financial data or key metrics changes mentioned in the provided content [1] Business Line Data and Key Metrics - No specific business line data or key metrics changes mentioned in the provided content [1] Market Data and Key Metrics - No specific market data or key metrics changes mentioned in the provided content [1] Company Strategy and Industry Competition - No specific company strategy or industry competition details mentioned in the provided content [1] Management Commentary on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - No specific management commentary on the operating environment or future outlook mentioned in the provided content [1] Other Important Information - The conference call is for Meituan's Second Quarter 2024 Earnings, hosted by Ms Scarlett Xu, VP and Head of Capital Markets [1] Q&A Session Summary - No Q&A session details provided in the content [1]

Financial Performance - Total revenue increased by 21.0% year-on-year to RMB 82.3 billion in Q2 2024, up from RMB 68 billion in Q2 2023[30] - Operating profit grew by 36.8% year-on-year to RMB 15.2 billion, with an operating margin increase of 3.3 percentage points to 25.1%[26] - The company reported a profit of RMB 11.4 billion in Q2 2024, up from RMB 5.0 billion in Q1 2024[45] - The adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2024 reached RMB 15 billion, reflecting significant growth compared to RMB 7.7 billion in Q2 2023[58] - The total operating profit for Q2 2024 was RMB 11,256,889 thousand, which is 13.7% of revenue, compared to RMB 4,712,999 thousand and 6.9% in Q2 2023[155] - The company reported a net profit attributable to equity holders of RMB 16,720,459 thousand for the six months ended June 30, 2024, compared to RMB 8,046,103 thousand for the same period in 2023, representing a growth of 107.5%[112] - The diluted earnings per share increased to RMB 2.58 for the six months ended June 30, 2024, up from RMB 1.21 in the same period of 2023, reflecting a growth of 113.2%[112] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from delivery services was RMB 37.3 billion, while commission revenue was RMB 34.2 billion, showing a slight increase from the previous period[2] - The core local business revenue for Q2 2024 was RMB 15,233,585 thousand, accounting for 25.1% of total revenue, up from 21.8% in Q2 2023[155] - The core local business segment's revenue grew from RMB 51,200 million in Q2 2023 to RMB 60,700 million in Q2 2024, marking an 18.5% increase[185] - Revenue for Q2 2024 reached RMB 82.25 billion, up from RMB 73.28 billion in Q1 2024, marking a growth of approximately 12.7%[191] Expenses and Costs - General and administrative expenses rose by 17.3% from RMB 2.3 billion in Q1 2024 to RMB 2.7 billion in Q2 2024, maintaining a stable percentage of 3.3% of revenue[6] - Sales and marketing expenses increased by 6.8% quarter-on-quarter to RMB 14.8 billion in Q2 2024, primarily due to seasonal factors[41] - Distribution-related costs increased to RMB 48,034,761 thousand for the six months ended June 30, 2024, up from RMB 40,305,534 thousand in the same period of 2023, reflecting a rise of 19.5%[110] - Employee compensation expenses rose to RMB 22,361,745 thousand for the six months ended June 30, 2024, compared to RMB 20,724,480 thousand in the same period of 2023, an increase of 7.9%[110] - The cost of sales increased by 1.6% to RMB 48.36 billion in Q2 2024, with the cost-to-revenue ratio decreasing by 6.1 percentage points to 58.8%[194] Cash Flow and Investments - Net cash flow from investing activities was RMB 5.2 billion, primarily due to net cash from financial investments, offset by purchases of property, plant, and equipment[8] - Cash and cash equivalents, along with short-term investments, totaled RMB 54.7 billion and RMB 78.5 billion, respectively, as of June 30, 2024[54] - The company reported a net cash outflow from financing activities of RMB (32,413,691) thousand for the six months ended June 30, 2024, compared to RMB (1,697,222) thousand for the same period in 2023[106] - The company recorded a net cash flow of RMB 20.5 billion from financing activities in Q2 2024, primarily due to repayment of loan principal and interest, as well as repurchase of Class B shares[147] Business Segments and Growth - The number of instant delivery transactions reached 6,167.1 thousand, representing a 14.2% increase year-on-year[21] - New business segments, including B2B catering supply chain services and shared bicycles, achieved healthy growth and efficiency improvements, contributing to the overall ecosystem[28] - Revenue from the new business segment increased by 28.7% from RMB 16.8 billion in Q2 2023 to RMB 21.6 billion in Q2 2024, primarily driven by growth in the merchandise retail business[60] - The new business segment's operating loss narrowed from RMB 5.2 billion in Q2 2023 to RMB 1.3 billion in Q2 2024, with the operating loss margin improving by 24.9 percentage points to 6.1%[35] Strategic Initiatives - The company expanded its "Shen Membership" system to more categories in the hospitality sector, enhancing partnerships with merchants and offering diverse high-value products and services[27] - The company launched the "Must-Eat List" for 2024, covering nearly 2,800 restaurants across over 100 cities, aimed at increasing exposure and operational efficiency for listed merchants[27] - The company has expanded its "Meituan Flash Purchase" service, achieving strong growth in annual transaction users and increasing order frequency[153] - The company has deepened cooperation with leading brands and expanded its "Meituan Lightning Warehouse" to provide operational support for merchants, enhancing transaction conversion rates[153] Research and Development - Research and development expenses for Q2 2024 were RMB 5.3 billion, maintaining stability year-on-year, with the percentage of revenue decreasing by 1.5 percentage points to 6.5%[143] - Research and development expenses rose by 6.8% to RMB 5.34 billion in Q2 2024, maintaining a stable percentage of 6.5% of revenue[195] Market Performance - The company reported a significant increase in transaction amounts in lower-tier markets, driven by enhanced convenience and richer choices for local consumers[27] - The peak daily order volume for the "Pin Hao Fan" service exceeded 8 million orders, indicating strong performance in the second quarter[180]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to Meituan [22] Core Views - Meituan's core business outlook focuses on promoting conversion through cost-effectiveness and stabilizing/improving monetization rates as the key to profit growth [3] - The integration of Meituan's in-store and home delivery businesses is expected to drive more cost-effective product innovations and enhance bargaining power with merchants [5] - Meituan's organizational restructuring and business integration are expected to gradually show results, with a neutral assumption of a 0.3-0.4pct YoY increase in monetization rate and operating profit margin in 2024 [9] Business Trends - Meituan's food delivery business is expected to see a 13.9% YoY increase in order volume and a 11.3% YoY increase in GTV in 2024 [10] - The in-store and hotel business is expected to achieve a 32.6% YoY increase in GTV in 2024, with a monetization rate of 6.0% [10] - Meituan's new businesses, including Meituan Youxuan, are expected to reduce losses significantly, with a target of reducing operating losses by 8-10 billion yuan in 2024 [71] Competitive Landscape - In 2023, Douyin accelerated its local life services, achieving a 256% YoY growth in GTV, with over 4.5 million partnered stores [30] - Meituan responded to Douyin's competition by lowering commission rates for some in-store merchants and launching live streaming and special offers, stabilizing its in-store business sales at around 200 billion yuan in Q1 2024 [30] - In 2024, Douyin adjusted its organizational structure to focus more on commercialized monetization, while Meituan integrated its in-store and home delivery businesses to improve internal efficiency [35][12] Strategic Adjustments - Meituan's organizational restructuring in 2024 aims to integrate in-store and home delivery businesses, enhancing internal collaboration and operational efficiency [87] - The company is focusing on younger leadership and flattening its organizational structure to reduce resistance to business integration and improve synergy [90] - Meituan's membership system integration is seen as a key driver for future growth, aiming to enhance user retention and cross-category consumption [99] Financial Performance - Meituan's core local commerce revenue grew by 27% YoY in Q1 2024, with instant delivery orders increasing by 28% to 5.46 billion [70] - The company's advertising revenue growth accelerated in Q1 2024, surpassing commission income, indicating a relative easing of competition in the in-store business [70] - Meituan's new business segment reduced losses significantly in Q1 2024, with an operating loss of 2.8 billion yuan, down from previous quarters [71]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (3690 HK) is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 150.70 [23][30]. Core Insights - The report anticipates that Meituan will demonstrate resilience in profitability despite external pressures, with projected revenue for Q2 2024 reaching RMB 79.92 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.6% [30]. - The company is expected to achieve a non-IFRS net profit of RMB 8.92 billion for Q2 2024, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter growth of 16.4% [30]. - Revenue forecasts for 2024 to 2026 are projected at RMB 325.2 billion, RMB 383.7 billion, and RMB 450.1 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.5%, 18.0%, and 17.3% [30]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2022 was RMB 219.96 billion, with projections of RMB 276.75 billion for 2023 and RMB 325.18 billion for 2024 [7]. - EBITDA is expected to grow from RMB 3.95 billion in 2022 to RMB 22.63 billion in 2023, reaching RMB 42.17 billion in 2024 [7]. - The net profit forecast for 2024 is RMB 28.09 billion, with an EPS of RMB 4.51 [7]. Valuation - The target price of HKD 150.70 is derived from a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation, with the home delivery business valued at HKD 81.2 based on a 20x PE for 2024, and the in-store business valued at HKD 55.3 [26][27]. - New business segments are valued at HKD 14.3, reflecting a shift towards reducing losses and focusing on high-quality growth strategies [27]. Market Position - The report highlights that Meituan's competitive position is expected to strengthen through synergies between its home delivery and in-store services, particularly with the introduction of the "Shen Membership" program [31][32]. - The in-store segment is projected to see a GTV growth of 35% year-on-year in Q2 2024, with revenue growth of 22% [32].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan (3690.HK) with a target price of 140.4 HKD [4][7][17]. Core Insights - Meituan is expected to benefit from the recovery in offline consumption demand, with synergies from the integration of its delivery and in-store services [4][7]. - The company is confident in its business outlook, as evidenced by its substantial share buyback plans totaling 30 billion USD [4][7]. - The report anticipates that new business initiatives will continue to reduce losses and could become new growth drivers for Meituan in the future [4][7]. Summary by Sections Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The projected revenues for FY2024E, FY2025E, and FY2026E are 327.7 billion, 384.1 billion, and 437.1 billion RMB respectively [4][7]. - Adjusted net profits for FY2024E, FY2025E, and FY2026E are expected to be 32.1 billion, 44.2 billion, and 56.8 billion RMB respectively [4][7]. - The report highlights the expected improvement in operating profit margins for the in-store business, projecting a rise from 31% in FY24Q2 to 34% by FY2024Q4 [4][7]. Business Integration and Growth Potential - The integration of delivery and in-store services is expected to enhance operational efficiency and drive growth [4][7]. - As of July 4, the number of merchants participating in Meituan's "Shen Membership" program reached 5 million, indicating strong engagement [4][7]. - The report notes that competition in the delivery sector is easing, which may lead to improved profit margins for Meituan [4][7]. Financial Performance and Share Buyback - Meituan's significant share buyback plan reflects its confidence in the local business development and financial stability [4][7]. - The report indicates that the company has sufficient financial resources to support the buyback while maintaining a robust financial position [4][7].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on the company with a "Buy" rating [53][176] Core Views - The company is a leader in the local life services industry, with its main business focusing on local life services [28][51] - The company's overall revenue scale continues to grow, with 2023 full-year revenue reaching RMB 276.7 billion, a 26% YoY increase [10] - The company's gross profit margin has been rising since 2022, reaching 35% in 2023 [10] - The company's core local commerce business accounted for 74.76% of total revenue in 2023, up 1.7 percentage points from 2022 [34] - The company has made strategic adjustments to its organizational structure to address increasing competition, including promoting Wang Puzhong to lead the core local commerce business and having founder Wang Xing directly oversee international and exploratory tech businesses [52][108] Financial Performance - The company's instant delivery transaction volume has shown continuous growth in recent years, driven by the development of its membership system and the promotion of various online consumption scenarios [5][9] - The company's sales expense ratio has fluctuated within a range since its IPO in 2018, while the management expense ratio has steadily declined, and the financial expense ratio remains low [10][14] - The company's core local commerce business has maintained steady growth in operating profit, while new businesses have continued to incur losses, though the loss amount has narrowed quarter by quarter [39] Management and Governance - The company maintains stable management decision-making power through a dual-class share structure, with Class A shares having ten times the voting rights of Class B shares [15] - Wang Xing, the company's founder and chairman, holds approximately 44.33% of the voting rights, while Mu Rongjun, another co-founder, holds about 7.25% of the voting rights [15] - The company's management team is stable, with co-founders holding key positions and overseeing strategic planning and business operations [15][16] Industry and Competition - The company leads in the local life services industry, with its active user scale ranking first in the local life segment according to Questmobile data [28] - The entry of content platforms like Douyin into the local life services market has intensified competition, with Douyin showing a high overlap in user base with the company [52][100] - The local life services market is expected to reach RMB 35.3 trillion by 2025, with a CAGR of 12.6% from 2020 to 2025 [91] Strategic Initiatives - The company has made several organizational adjustments in 2024 to strengthen its core local commerce business and prioritize international and tech exploration businesses [102][108] - The company is advancing its AI and tech strategy through both investments and in-house R&D, including acquiring Lightyear Beyond and investing in Zhipu AI [114][166] - The company has launched AI applications like "Wow" and "Ask Xiaodai" to explore AI-driven social and shopping assistant functionalities [144][145] Financial Projections - The company's revenue is expected to grow to RMB 333.3 billion, RMB 382.9 billion, and RMB 438.2 billion in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with YoY growth rates of 20%, 15%, and 14% [53][175] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be RMB 27.5 billion, RMB 40.4 billion, and RMB 54.7 billion in 2024, 2025, and 2026, with YoY growth rates of 99%, 47%, and 35% [53][175] - Adjusted net profit is expected to reach RMB 36.5 billion, RMB 49.0 billion, and RMB 62.9 billion in 2024, 2025, and 2026, with YoY growth rates of 57%, 34%, and 28% [53][175]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan with a target price of HKD 149.50 [2][5] Core Investment Thesis - Meituan's "Pin Haofan" (拼好饭) introduces a new business model by leveraging group orders to enhance efficiency for users, merchants, and delivery riders [2][9] - The model focuses on "quantity for price" on the supply side and centralized delivery, significantly reducing per-order delivery costs [10][12] - The report forecasts Meituan's revenue for 2024-2026 at RMB 324.8/383.7/450.1 billion, with YoY growth of 17.4%/18.1%/17.3% [2] - Non-IFRS net profit is projected at RMB 37.7/53.4/70.0 billion, with YoY growth of 62.1%/41.6%/31.1% [2] Market Trends and Growth Drivers - Post-pandemic recovery has driven strong growth in the food delivery market, with a 45% YoY increase in 2023 [3] - Food delivery's share in the overall dining market rose from 3.9% in 2015 to 28.3% in 2023, highlighting its growing importance [3] - The trend towards cost-effective dining is evident, with the average per capita dining expenditure dropping from RMB 43.2 in 2022 to RMB 42.6 in 2023 [3] - Lower-tier cities show significant growth potential, with penetration rates below 15% compared to 21.5% in higher-tier cities [3] Pin Haofan's Business Model - Pin Haofan's innovation lies in its ability to negotiate lower prices with merchants and centralize delivery, reducing per-order delivery costs by 46% [12] - The model encourages group orders, allowing riders to deliver 2-3 times more orders in the same time frame, cutting delivery costs from RMB 7 to RMB 3.7 per order [12] - By 2025, Pin Haofan is expected to account for 10%-11% of Meituan's total delivery orders, contributing RMB 4.4-8.5 billion to profit improvement [17] User and Merchant Benefits - Users benefit from lower prices, with Pin Haofan offering discounts of 15%-40% compared to regular orders [30][87] - Merchants gain increased exposure and reduced preparation costs, particularly benefiting small and medium-sized businesses [28][62] - Delivery riders achieve higher efficiency through centralized delivery, with per-trip income increasing by 21% [93] Financial Projections and Valuation - Meituan's core local commerce revenue is expected to grow to RMB 2,438/2,927/3,507 billion in 2024-2026, driven by home delivery and in-store services [104] - The report values Meituan's home delivery business at HKD 81.0 based on a 20x 2024E PE, and the in-store business at HKD 54.4 based on a 20x 2024E PE [106][107] - The SOTP valuation for Meituan is HKD 149.5 per share, reflecting the combined value of its home delivery, in-store, and new businesses [107] Operational Efficiency and Profitability - Pin Haofan significantly improves the unit economics (UE) of low-priced orders, reducing losses by 61.2% compared to regular orders [69][70] - The model is expected to achieve breakeven when the average group order size reaches 4-5 orders per trip [102] - Meituan's overall UE improvement is driven by both the substitution of low-priced orders and the addition of new orders, with the former contributing more significantly [99]