Group 1 - The solar stocks experienced a collective rise, indicating positive market sentiment in the sector [2] - New Energy (01799.HK) saw an increase of 8.75%, reaching HKD 8.58 [2] - GCL-Poly Energy (03800.HK) rose by 6.06%, trading at HKD 1.39 [2] - Xinyi Solar (00968.HK) increased by 3.83%, with a price of HKD 3.8 [2] - Flat Glass Group (06865.HK) gained 2.39%, priced at HKD 12.44 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The solar energy stocks have collectively risen, driven by positive developments in the industry, particularly the establishment of a joint platform among leading companies for capacity storage and supply-side reforms in the polysilicon sector [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - New Special Energy (01799) increased by 8.75%, reaching HKD 8.58 [1] - GCL-Poly Energy (03800) rose by 6.06%, reaching HKD 1.39 [1] - Xinyi Solar (00968) saw a rise of 3.83%, reaching HKD 3.8 [1] - Flat Glass Group (06865) increased by 2.39%, reaching HKD 12.44 [1] Group 2: Industry Developments - GCL-Poly Chairman Zhu Gongshan announced that 17 leading companies have signed agreements regarding joint capacity storage [1] - The establishment of a joint platform is expected to accelerate supply-side reforms in the polysilicon sector [1] - The ongoing efforts to combat "involution" are leading to noticeable recovery in industry prices and profitability [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - By Q3 2025, the polysilicon industry is expected to start price increases under regulations requiring sales at "not lower than cost" [1] - The industry aims to gradually restore prices above the comprehensive cost line [1]

Group 1 - The company's photovoltaic materials business turned profitable in Q3 2025, driven by a reduction in internal competition among leading firms, which is expected to help them navigate through the cycle [1] - The company forecasts net profits for the years 2025 to 2027 to be -1.38 billion, 1.32 billion, and 2.06 billion RMB respectively, with EPS of -0.05, 0.04, and 0.07 RMB per share [1] - The target price for the company is set at 1.59 RMB based on a 1.2x PB for 2026, maintaining a "buy" rating [1] Group 2 - The average selling price of granular silicon in Q3 2025 was 42.12 RMB/kg, reflecting a sequential increase of 9.2 RMB/kg, with further price increases expected [2] - The average production cash cost for granular silicon decreased to 24.16 RMB/kg in Q3 2025, indicating improved cost efficiency [2] - The company plans to use part of the funds from a recent subscription to acquire companies or assets in mainland China to increase granular silicon production capacity, which is expected to help balance supply and demand in the industry [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 1.59 HKD based on a 1.2x PB for 2026 [10][19]. Core Insights - In Q3 2025, the company's photovoltaic materials business turned profitable, driven by a reduction in internal competition, positioning leading companies to navigate the cycle effectively [2][10]. - The average selling price of granular silicon increased to 42.12 RMB/kg in Q3 2025, with expectations for further price stability and growth in Q4 2025 and 2026 [10]. - The company plans to utilize funds from a recent subscription announcement for mergers and acquisitions to enhance its granular silicon production capacity, which is expected to balance supply and demand in the industry [10]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 33.7 billion RMB, with a decline of 6.2% year-on-year. Revenue is expected to drop significantly in 2024 to 15.1 billion RMB, followed by a gradual recovery [4]. - Gross profit is forecasted to be 11.69 billion RMB in 2023, turning negative in 2024 with a loss of 2.51 billion RMB, before recovering to 4.1 billion RMB in 2026 [4]. - Net profit is expected to be 2.51 billion RMB in 2023, declining to a loss of 4.75 billion RMB in 2024, with a return to profitability projected in 2026 with a net profit of 1.32 billion RMB [4]. Market Data - The company's current market capitalization is approximately 38.44 billion HKD, with a share price range over the past 52 weeks between 0.73 and 1.72 HKD [7]. - The average production cash cost for granular silicon in Q3 2025 was 24.16 RMB/kg, showing a decrease of 1.15 RMB/kg from the previous quarter [10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Guoxin Technology (03800) maintains a "buy" rating, with projected BPS for 2025-2027 at 1.17, 1.22, and 1.28 CNY per share respectively [1] - The target price for the company is set at 1.59 CNY based on a 1.2x PB for 2026, using an exchange rate of 1 HKD = 0.92 CNY [1] - In Q3 2025, the company's profit from the photovoltaic materials business is expected to be approximately 9.6 billion CNY, which includes a post-tax gain of about 6.4 billion CNY from the sale of an associate [1] Group 2 - The average selling price of granular silicon in Q3 2025 was 42.12 CNY/kg, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.2 CNY/kg [2] - The average production cash cost for granular silicon was 24.16 CNY/kg in Q3 2025, showing a decrease of 1.15 CNY/kg from the previous quarter [2] - The company plans to use part of the proceeds from a recent subscription announcement to acquire target companies or assets in mainland China to increase granular silicon production capacity [2]

Core Viewpoint - Cathay Pacific Haitong maintains an "overweight" rating for GCL-Poly Energy (03800), projecting BPS for 2025-2027 to be 1.17, 1.22, and 1.28 CNY per share respectively, with a target price of 1.59 CNY based on a 1.2x PB for 2026 [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, GCL-Poly expects profits from its photovoltaic materials business to be approximately 9.6 billion CNY, including a post-tax gain of about 6.4 billion CNY from the sale of an affiliate [1] - The adjusted EBITDA for the same period is estimated to be around 14.1 billion CNY [1] Group 2: Market Trends - The average selling price of granular silicon in Q3 2025 was 42.12 CNY/kg, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.2 CNY/kg [1] - As of October 15, the average price of granular silicon reached 50 CNY/kg, indicating potential upward movement compared to Q3 2025 prices [1] - Expectations for Q4 2025 and 2026 suggest that prices will likely remain stable with a potential upward trend, enhancing profitability in the granular silicon business [1] Group 3: Cost and Production - The average cash production cost for granular silicon in Q3 2025 was 24.16 CNY/kg, showing a decrease of 1.15 CNY/kg from the previous quarter [2] - GCL-Poly's production capacity is aligned with national energy consumption standards, which are set to be enforced by September 2025 [2] Group 4: Strategic Moves - The company announced plans to use part of the proceeds from a recent subscription to acquire companies or assets within mainland China to increase granular silicon production capacity [2] - Industry consolidation is viewed as beneficial for achieving supply-demand balance, which may further stabilize and enhance prices [2]

Core Insights - The top three companies by Hong Kong Stock Connect holding ratios are China Telecom (71.22%), COSCO Shipping Energy (70.13%), and GCL-Poly Energy (69.57%) [1] - In the last five trading days, the largest increases in holding amounts were seen in China Mobile (+1.929 billion), Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (+1.897 billion), and InnoCare Pharma (+1.751 billion) [1] - Conversely, Alibaba (-3.254 billion), SMIC (-2.330 billion), and Laopuhuang (-0.855 billion) experienced the largest decreases in holding amounts [2] Group 1: Hong Kong Stock Connect Holding Ratios - China Telecom (00728) has a holding ratio of 71.22% with 9.884 billion shares [1] - COSCO Shipping Energy (01138) has a holding ratio of 70.13% with 909 million shares [1] - GCL-Poly Energy (01330) has a holding ratio of 69.57% with 281 million shares [1] - Other notable companies include China Shenhua (67.74%), Kaisa Group (67.61%), and Xinte Energy (65.33%) [1] Group 2: Recent Increases in Holdings - China Mobile (00941) saw an increase of 1.929 billion in holding amount and 22.8427 million shares [1] - Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800) increased by 1.897 billion and 71.8145 million shares [1] - InnoCare Pharma (09606) increased by 1.751 billion and 5.5669 million shares [1] - Other companies with significant increases include Meituan-W (+1.592 billion) and Xiaomi Group-W (+1.105 billion) [1] Group 3: Recent Decreases in Holdings - Alibaba-W (09988) experienced a decrease of 3.254 billion in holding amount and 20.0969 million shares [2] - SMIC (00981) saw a decrease of 2.330 billion and 31.1261 million shares [2] - Laopuhuang (06181) decreased by 0.855 billion and 1.2141 million shares [2] - Other companies with notable decreases include Huahong Semiconductor (-0.792 billion) and Jiangxi Copper (-0.651 billion) [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company has achieved a significant turnaround in profitability, reporting a net profit of approximately 960 million yuan in Q3 2025, marking its first quarterly profit after five consecutive quarters of losses [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company's photovoltaic segment generated a profit of about 960 million yuan, including a profit of 640 million yuan from the sale of an associate [1]. - The average production cash cost for granular silicon in Q3 2025 was 24.2 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1.2 yuan/kg from the previous quarter [2]. - The average selling price of silicon materials in Q3 2025 was 37.3 yuan/kg (excluding tax), an increase of 8.1 yuan/kg from the previous quarter, resulting in an average production cash profit of 13.1 yuan/kg, which expanded by 9.3 yuan/kg [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The "anti-involution" policy in the photovoltaic industry is expected to accelerate the elimination of outdated production capacity, with the company's market share increasing from 14.58% in 2024 to 24.32% in the first half of 2025 [2]. - The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation have been drafting a revised price law to guide the pricing order in the photovoltaic industry, contributing to a stabilization and mild recovery of silicon material prices [2]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The company has entered into a strategic financing agreement with InfiniCapital, raising approximately 5.446 billion HKD (about 4.98 billion yuan) through a private placement, aimed at structural adjustments in industry capacity and enhancing its capital structure [2]. - The remaining funds from the financing will be used to supplement working capital and repay loans, further strengthening the company's financial stability [2]. Group 4: Investment Outlook - The company maintains an "outperform" rating, with expectations of a profitability turning point driven by the ongoing "anti-involution" policy improving supply-demand dynamics [3]. - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are -900 million, 2.14 billion, and 4.02 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of -0.03, 0.07, and 0.13 yuan, and dynamic PE ratios of 16.9 and 9.0 for 2026-2027 [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The polysilicon industry faces significant supply - side pressure with large overall supply, partial enterprise production cuts falling short of expectations, and an increase in the number of operating enterprises leading to inventory accumulation. The demand side is relatively weak, with poor demand in the downstream photovoltaic industry, lower component tender prices, and postponed centralized projects, resulting in reduced demand for polysilicon from silicon wafers. Although N - type silicon materials maintain a certain premium, the price of ordinary materials is approaching the cost line, and the industry's overall gross profit margin is narrowing. International markets have mixed impacts, with high inventory in Europe suppressing import demand, and although the US tariff policy loosens to drive energy storage system exports, it can't fully offset the negative impact of the European market. However, emerging markets like the Middle East and Latin America show a surge in demand, buffering the decline in the demand side. If the supply pressure continues to increase, high inventory will exert significant downward pressure on prices next week. After the monthly meeting, polysilicon remains in a platform shock and is expected to continue. The operation suggestion is to lay out long positions at low prices [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main polysilicon contract is 50,310 yuan/ton, down 405 yuan; the 11 - 12 spread of polysilicon is - 2,360 yuan, up 130 yuan; the main position volume of polysilicon is 49,016 lots, down 3,221 lots; the polysilicon - industrial silicon spread is 41,825 yuan/ton, down 385 yuan [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 53,000 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the basis of polysilicon is 2,285 yuan/ton, down 175 yuan; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 6.53 US dollars/kg, down 0.01 US dollars; the average price of cauliflower - type polysilicon is 30 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of dense - type polysilicon is 36 yuan/kg; the average price of re - feeding polysilicon is 34.8 yuan/kg, unchanged [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract is 8,485 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the spot price of industrial silicon is 9,350 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 76,642.01 tons, up 2,635.83 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 1,337.59 tons, up 1,220.14 tons; the monthly output of industrial silicon is 402,800 tons, up 36,000 tons; the total social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 130,000 tons, up 5,000 tons; the monthly import volume of polysilicon is 1,292 tons, up 286 tons; the weekly spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China is 6.9 US dollars/kg, up 0.01 US dollars; the monthly average import price of polysilicon in China is 2.62 US dollars/ton, down 0.25 US dollars [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 69,857,000 kilowatts, up 3,475,000 kilowatts; the average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, up 0.01 RMB/W; the monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 129,531,290 units, down 19,491,370 units; the monthly import volume of photovoltaic modules is 14,733,770 units, down 6,706,520 units; the monthly average import price of photovoltaic modules is 0.3 US dollars/unit, up 0.06 US dollars; the weekly comprehensive price index (SPI) of the photovoltaic industry for polysilicon is 32.82, unchanged [3] 3.6 Industry News - GCL Technology announced a voluntary notice, disclosing that its photovoltaic materials business achieved a turnaround in the third quarter of 2025, recording a profit of about 960 million yuan, compared with a loss of 1.81 billion yuan in the same period last year. The profit included a post - tax gain of about 640 million yuan from the sale of an associated company. Excluding this non - recurring gain, the photovoltaic materials business still achieved an operating profit [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CMB International maintains a "Buy" rating for GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Limited (03800), highlighting a significant increase in polysilicon prices that has led to a turnaround in profitability [1] Financial Performance - GCL-Poly's photovoltaic materials segment reported a profit of 960 million RMB in Q3 2025, including a post-tax profit of 640 million RMB from the sale of its associate company, Xinhua Semiconductor [1] - The company has successfully turned a profit due to the increase in polysilicon prices, which rose from a low of 34,000 RMB per ton to the current price of 50,000 RMB per ton since late July [1] Market Dynamics - The anti-involution policy, which prevents sales below cost, has contributed to the significant rise in polysilicon prices [1] - An increase in operating rates has also helped to dilute unit depreciation and expenses, further supporting the profitability of the granular silicon business [1] Future Outlook - CMB International has revised its net profit forecast for GCL-Poly, setting a target price of 1.54 HKD based on a 2026 price-to-earnings ratio of 16 times, while maintaining the "Buy" rating [1]