Core Viewpoint - The "2025 China Real Estate Product Evaluation" has entered the project display phase, with the initial shortlisted projects announced on December 3rd, following a vigorous selection process involving industry experts and enterprises [1]. Group 1: High-End Projects - Guangzhou Poly Tianyao is recognized as a high-end project [2]. - Hangzhou Greentown Xijing Henglu combines romantic elements of Monet's garden with modern Eastern living [4]. - The project features super high-rise residential buildings with a modern architectural style [4]. Group 2: Light Luxury Projects - Hangzhou Poly Tianyi is highlighted for its modern high-rise residential design [5]. - Zhengzhou Gao Xin Hua Xi Fu is noted for its modern high-rise residential architecture [5]. - Nanning Bangtai Jinghe is recognized for its modern high-rise residential style [6]. Group 3: Quality Projects - Changsha Longhu Guancui emphasizes urban luxury and natural coexistence in its modern high-rise residential design [8]. - Shanghai Haishang Yuanshu showcases a blend of natural scenery and modern architecture [9]. - Nanning Bangtai Lan Jing is a significant urban renewal project covering approximately 3,000 acres, featuring modern high-rise residential buildings [10]. Group 4: Evaluation Process - The evaluation process combines expert reviews and online voting to determine the final awards, including "Top Ten High-End/Luxury/Quality Works" and "Best Houses" [1]. - The results of the 2025 China Real Estate Product Evaluation will be announced in early January 2026, with ongoing updates available through the WeChat account "Kerry Product Evaluation" [10].

Core Viewpoint - The company Greentown, once a leader in acquiring prime land, is now facing backlash from its previous land acquisitions, particularly with the recent performance of its project Greentown Yilu, which has seen declining sales and a cancellation of the lottery system for homebuyers [1][10]. Group 1: Project Performance - Greentown Yilu launched 67 residential units in its third opening on December 6, 2025, marking the first time the lottery system was canceled [1][10]. - The first opening on September 27, 2025, offered 148 units and received 172 valid registrations, resulting in a registration rate of 116.2% [2][11]. - The second opening on November 8, 2025, had 40 units available, with a registration rate of 100% as all 40 registrations were valid [3][12]. - Cumulatively, Greentown Yilu has released 255 units, with 92 units sold, resulting in a sales rate of 36% [4][13]. Group 2: Land Acquisition Strategy - In March 2025, Greentown acquired the land for Greentown Yilu for a total price of 2.9159 billion, with a premium rate of 40% and a floor price of 71,400 per square meter, setting a record for land prices in the North Cai area [5][14]. - Over the past year, Greentown has secured four plots in Shanghai, three of which are record land prices, including the well-known Xuhui Riverside plot at a floor price of 131,000 per square meter [6][16]. - The company has adopted a strategy of high-premium land acquisition followed by rapid development to recoup funds, which was successful until market conditions began to decline in September 2025 [7][17]. Group 3: Market Challenges - The decline in market heat since September 2025 has led to a slowdown in sales for Greentown Yilu, raising concerns about the upcoming Greentown Chaoming Waitan project, which is positioned as a high-end product facing significant competition [8][18]. - The company’s previous strategy of leveraging brand premium to offset high land costs may no longer be effective, signaling potential challenges ahead for Greentown and serving as a warning for other real estate firms [9][18].

证券研究报告 房地产 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 10 日 证券分析师 邓力 SAC：S1350525070006 dengli@jzsec.com 陈颖 SAC：S1350525110002 chenying02@huayuanstock.com 联系人 唐志玮 tangzhiwei@huayuanstock.com 发改委支持 REITs 底层资产扩围，成交继续边际走弱 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——房地产行业周报（25/11/29-25/12/5） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 板块行情：本周上证指数上升 0.4%、深证成指上升 1.3%、创业板指上升 1.9%、沪深 300 上升 1.3%、房地产（申万）下跌 2.2%。个股方面，涨跌幅 前五的分别为：中国武夷(+10.2%)、华联控股(+7.4%)、华夏幸福(+7.1%)、 宁波富达(+5.7%)、财信发展(+5.6%)，涨跌幅后五的分别为：三湘印象 (-12.9%)、ST 中迪(-11.5%)、沙河股份(-8.7%)、深振业 A(-8.4%)、新华 联(-8.3%)。 板块表现： 数据跟 ...

Group 1 - The real estate sector in China is facing significant challenges, with major companies like China Overseas Grand Oceans Group and China Jinmao experiencing declines of 8.93% and 8.76% respectively [1] - Morgan Stanley indicates that the real estate sector remains a primary risk point, with ongoing declines in sales and investment, and the market has not achieved a "stop falling and stabilize" condition [1][2] - Vanke's application for domestic bond extension has severely impacted market sentiment, raising concerns about the tightening financing environment for private developers [1][2] Group 2 - Analysts are optimistic about Longfor Group, which is transitioning to a rental model and possesses a significant amount of unencumbered investment properties [1] - The recommendation for investors is to adopt a selective strategy in the Chinese credit market, favoring TMT companies with strong fundamentals and balance sheets, such as Alibaba and Weibo [1] - Despite narrowing spreads for state-owned enterprises, there is strong technical support for defensive stocks like China National Chemical Corporation [1]

Group 1 - The article highlights a collective decline in the stock prices of Chinese property companies, with China Overseas Grand Oceans Group (00081) down 8.48% to HKD 2.05, Greentown China (03900) down 5% to HKD 8.36, New City Development (01030) down 2.31% to HKD 2.11, and Sunac China (01918) down 1.55% to HKD 1.27 [1] - Guosheng Securities reported that the total land acquisition amount for the top 100 real estate companies from January to November reached CNY 847.8 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 14.1%, although the growth rate has significantly narrowed compared to the first ten months of the year [1] - The report indicates that while the land market in core cities was relatively active in the first half of the year, the enthusiasm for land acquisition among major real estate companies has decreased towards the end of the year due to the fulfillment of inventory replenishment goals and a cooling new housing market [1] Group 2 - According to Credit Lyonnais, the low investment willingness of developers is a major constraint on the real estate sector [1] - Data shows that the new construction area nationwide from January to October 2025 was only 491 million square meters, with commercial property development investment declining by 14.7% year-on-year [1] - Credit Lyonnais believes that stabilizing sales is key to rebuilding industry confidence, and it expects the decline in new construction area to narrow in 2026, with the annual sales of commercial housing expected to decrease by no more than 4% year-on-year [1]

Group 1 - The overall performance of Chinese property stocks has declined, with notable drops in companies such as China Overseas Grand Oceans Group (down 8.48% to HKD 2.05), Greentown China (down 5% to HKD 8.36), New City Development (down 2.31% to HKD 2.11), and Sunac China (down 1.55% to HKD 1.27) [1] - According to Guosheng Securities, the total land acquisition amount for the top 100 real estate companies from January to November reached CNY 847.8 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.1%, although the growth rate has significantly narrowed compared to the previous month [1] - The land market in core cities showed relative heat in the first half of the year, driven by structural transactions, but the enthusiasm for land acquisition among major real estate companies has decreased as they met their replenishment targets and the new housing market cooled further in the second half of the year [1] Group 2 - According to Credit Lyonnais, the low investment willingness of developers is a major constraint on the real estate sector [1] - Data indicates that the newly started construction area nationwide from January to October 2025 was only 491 million square meters, with commercial property development investment declining by 14.7% year-on-year [1] - Credit Lyonnais believes that stabilizing sales is key to rebuilding industry confidence, and it expects the decline in newly started construction area to narrow in 2026, with the annual sales of commercial housing expected to decrease by no more than 4% year-on-year [1]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong real estate stocks have seen a significant decline, with China Jinmao dropping nearly 9% and China Overseas Grand Oceans Group falling 8% [1] - Other notable declines include Zhongliang Holdings down over 5%, Greentown China down 4.77%, and several other companies like Longfor Group and Yuyuan Property down over 3% [1] - Morgan Stanley suggests a selective investment strategy, highlighting a clear risk differentiation in the Chinese credit market, with the TMT sector showing good quality while the real estate sector remains under severe pressure [1] Group 2 - The real estate market is not expected to stabilize until 2025, with ongoing declines in sales and investment [1] - Vanke's attempt to extend domestic bond maturities has led to significant drops in both offshore and onshore bond prices, raising concerns about the financing environment for private developers [1] - The effects of policy easing have been limited, and there remains substantial inventory pressure in the market [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [3]. Core Views - The real estate market in China is expected to continue bottoming out, with core cities likely to stabilize sooner. Two major opportunities are highlighted: the rise of favorable housing policies and the strong performance of quality commercial enterprises during a monetary easing cycle, which may lead to a revaluation of consumer-oriented commercial real estate assets [3]. Industry Data - New home sales in 34 key cities totaled 2.762 million square meters for the week of November 29 to December 5, reflecting a 9% increase week-on-week. In December, new home sales are down 23.6% year-on-year [4][5]. - The inventory of unsold residential properties in 15 cities was 89.906 million square meters, with a slight week-on-week increase of 0.04%. The average months of inventory turnover decreased by 0.3 months to 23 months [20][21]. Policy and News Tracking - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) emphasized the steady development of real estate investment trusts (REITs) and asset securitization. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) expanded the asset scope for REITs to include urban renewal projects [30][31]. - Local governments are implementing various housing subsidies, such as a maximum subsidy of 200,000 yuan for low-income families in Changzhou and a new housing subsidy policy in Nanning for multi-child families [30][31]. Company Dynamics - Poly Developments completed a change in its controlling shareholder, while Vanke extended the maturity of its medium-term notes. Several real estate companies reported their November sales data, with notable declines in sales volume and value for companies like Greentown China and China Overseas Development [3][36]. - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for mainstream A-share real estate companies for 2025 and 2026 are 22.1 and 19.3 times, respectively, while property management companies have P/E ratios of 13.7 and 12.3 times [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [5] Core Insights - Recent "14th Five-Year Plan" proposals from various regions emphasize the need for "good housing" and a "market + guarantee" supply-side policy, aiming for high-quality urban renewal and improved housing supply for low-income families [1][10] - The real estate sector is under pressure, with a significant year-on-year decline in new home sales, indicating a challenging market environment [2][22] - The report suggests that the policy environment is expected to strengthen, with a focus on improving the competitive landscape, particularly benefiting leading state-owned enterprises and quality developers [3] Summary by Sections 1. "14th Five-Year Plan" Proposals - Multiple regions have released proposals highlighting the importance of quality housing and a balanced supply system, focusing on urban renewal and affordable housing for disadvantaged families [1][10] 2. Market Review - The Shenwan Real Estate Index decreased by 2.2% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 3.43 percentage points, ranking 30th among 31 Shenwan primary industries [11] - A total of 30 stocks rose, while 82 stocks fell, indicating a challenging market sentiment [11] 3. New and Second-Hand Housing Transactions - New home sales in 30 cities totaled 176.6 million square meters this week, down 6.5% month-on-month and 47.7% year-on-year [2][22] - Second-hand home sales in 14 cities amounted to 190.7 million square meters, reflecting a 5.3% decrease from the previous week and a 40.8% decline year-on-year [33] 4. Credit Bond Issuance - This week, 9 credit bonds were issued by real estate companies, totaling 6.568 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.272 billion yuan from the previous week, with a net financing amount of -2.132 billion yuan [3][42]

Group 1: Sales Performance - In November 2025, 30 key listed real estate companies achieved a total sales amount of 162.36 billion yuan, with a cumulative performance of 1,981.13 billion yuan from January to November 2025 [1] - Among the 30 companies, seven reported month-on-month sales growth in November, with China Resources Land showing the highest growth rate [1] - Cumulatively, China Jinmao and Greenland Holdings recorded sales growth from January to November 2025 [1] Group 2: Investment Trends - Real estate companies are adopting a cautious investment approach, focusing on existing project development and sales rather than acquiring new land [5] - In November, the total investment amount for the monitored 30 companies was approximately 23.4 billion yuan, with a land acquisition area of 1.31 million square meters [5] - 13 companies reported new land reserves, with major acquisitions by state-owned enterprises like China Overseas Land and Investment and Greenland China [5] Group 3: Financing Activities - In November 2025, the total financing amount for 65 typical real estate companies reached 43.279 billion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 24% [8] - The cumulative financing amount from January to November 2025 was 390.236 billion yuan, with domestic debt financing accounting for 26.126 billion yuan and foreign debt financing increasing significantly [8] - The average financing cost for new bond financing was 2.87%, showing a decrease compared to 2024 [8][10] Group 4: Organizational Adjustments - Many real estate companies are undergoing organizational restructuring to enhance efficiency, with Dragon Lake Group merging regional operations to form a new business structure [12] - New City Holdings is splitting its light asset business into two companies to capture the construction market, while also restructuring its real estate development division [13] - CIFI Group has implemented a significant organizational overhaul, consolidating multiple divisions into three major regional business units to focus on core markets [14]