Group 1: Housing Services - Guangzhou Anju Group has launched its first one-stop housing service center in Yuexiu District, providing various housing services including policy consultation, rent payment, and hotline services for citizens [1] Group 2: Company Announcements - Greentown China announced the resignation of independent non-executive director Qiu Dong, effective April 4, 2025, due to his focus on academic research and publishing [2] Group 3: Sales Performance - Sunac China reported a contract sales amount of approximately 1.46 billion yuan in March, with a sales area of about 86,000 square meters and an average contract sales price of approximately 17,000 yuan per square meter [3] - China Overseas Development disclosed a contract sales amount of approximately 21.2 billion yuan in March, representing a year-on-year decline of 48.6%, with a corresponding sales area of approximately 947,100 square meters, down 8.5% year-on-year [4] - Zhengrong Real Estate reported a contract sales amount of approximately 421 million yuan in March, with a sales area of about 20,500 square meters and an average contract sales price of approximately 20,500 yuan per square meter [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the company [5][3][20] Core Views - The company experienced a 49% decline in net profit, primarily due to asset impairment and fair value reductions totaling 4.9 billion [1][9] - The company's sales and land acquisition performance is better than the industry average, ranking among the top three in the sector [1][11] - The company focuses on high-energy cities, with 79% of sales coming from first and second-tier cities, and maintains a high repayment rate of 104% [1][11] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 158.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 20.7%, while net profit was 1.6 billion, down 49% [1][4] - The company’s total sales area in 2024 was 1,409 million square meters, a decrease of 9%, with total sales amounting to 276.8 billion, down 8% [1][11] - The company’s cash flow remains robust, with cash and cash equivalents of 73 billion and a cash-to-short-term debt ratio of 2.3 times [2][17] Project and Land Acquisition - In 2024, the company added 42 new projects with a total construction area of 4.18 million square meters, corresponding to a new value of 108.8 billion, a 24% decrease year-on-year [2][11] - The company’s land reserves focus on first and second-tier cities, with 76% of total land reserves located in these areas [2][11] Debt and Financial Structure - As of the end of 2024, the company had a total debt of 317 billion due within one year, accounting for 23% of total debt, with a financing cost of 3.7%, the lowest on record [2][17] - The company’s debt structure has improved, with bank loans now making up 76% of total debt [2][17] Earnings Forecast - The revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are set at 142.1 billion and 146.4 billion, respectively, with net profits expected to be 1.7 billion and 1.8 billion [3][4] - The estimated EPS for 2025 and 2026 is projected to be 0.66 and 0.71, corresponding to PE ratios of 13.8 and 12.9 [3][4]

◎ 作者 / 房 玲、洪宇桁 核 心 观 点 【代建销售占比创新高，存货去化仍面临压力】 2024年绿城实现合同销售额2768亿元，合同销售面积 1409万平，分别同比减少8.1%和8.9%。其中代建业务降幅相对较小，实现销售额1050亿元，同比减少 1.7%，销售贡献也同比提高了2.5pct至37.9%，创历史新高。虽然2024年的整体去化率从60%回升至 62%，但是对比企业披露的82%的首开去化率，企业的存货去化仍有压力。2025年自投项目销售目标 1600亿元，同比略有下降；代建全年预计1000亿元左右，和2024年基本持平。 【代建新拓面积增长但收费降低，总可售货值9316亿元】 2024年绿城管理新拓代建项目总面积3649万 平方米，同比增长3.4%，2023年增速为25%；新拓项目代建费用为93.2亿元，同比下降10.1%，2023年 则为增长20.5%。对比来看，代建业务在竞争加剧的情况下盈利压力也有所加大。代建项目总可售货值 9316亿元，同比上升约4.4%，保障未来业绩稳定。 【拿地销售比降至0.4，权益占比继续提升至80.5%】 2024年绿城新增42宗地块，拿地建面418万平， 同比减 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the real estate industry, with a focus on major players in core cities and a significant increase in land acquisition activities among top companies [10][18][25]. Core Insights - The average premium rate for land transactions reached 17.1% in March, an increase of 6 percentage points from February, indicating a recovery in the land market [12][10]. - The top 10 real estate companies accounted for 75% of the new land value, reflecting a concentration of investment among leading firms [18][23]. - The total new land value for the top 100 companies was 622 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 17.8% [17][19]. Summary by Sections New Land Value Rankings - The top three companies in terms of new land value are China Resources Land (642.2 billion yuan), China Overseas Land (566 billion yuan), and Greentown China (504 billion yuan) [1][5]. - The report lists a total of 100 companies, with significant contributions from major players in the industry [1][5]. Land Acquisition Trends - The report highlights a "head-tail differentiation" in investment, where top companies are aggressively acquiring land while many smaller firms remain cautious [23][25]. - The land acquisition ratio for the top 100 companies is 0.3, indicating a strategic focus on land procurement among leading firms [21][18]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the land market is experiencing a structural recovery, particularly in first-tier and strong second-tier cities, while third and fourth-tier cities are still facing challenges [25][10]. - The competitive landscape is shifting towards larger firms, with increased bidding activity for high-quality land parcels in key urban areas [25][10].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The overall delivery capacity of major real estate companies in China is expected to decrease in 2024 compared to 2023, with nearly 60% of companies experiencing a decline of over 30% in delivery scale, and a median decline of 38% [14] - The central government has increased loan support for "white list" projects to enhance delivery capabilities, with over 5 trillion yuan approved for loans, aiming to deliver 3.73 million housing units by the end of 2024 [13] - The focus of real estate companies is shifting from product design to quality delivery and customer experience, indicating a trend towards a more integrated delivery and service system [17][21] Summary by Sections Delivery Capacity Rankings - The report lists the top 30 real estate companies in China based on their delivery capacity for 2024, with Green City China, China Overseas Property, and China Resources Land leading the rankings [2] Delivery Scale and Performance - The delivery scale of major real estate companies is shrinking, with significant reductions in the number of units delivered compared to previous years, reflecting ongoing market challenges [14][15] - Specific companies such as Country Garden and Sunac China are highlighted for their delivery volumes, with Country Garden delivering approximately 380,000 units [15] Product and Service Integration - The report emphasizes the importance of integrating delivery with service, moving from merely delivering products to enhancing the overall living experience for residents [21][23] - Companies are increasingly focusing on creating community engagement and personalized services to improve customer satisfaction post-delivery [21] Quality of Delivery - The report identifies a trend towards enhancing the quality of both indoor and outdoor delivery, with a focus on functional upgrades and aesthetic improvements [19][20] - Projects that have previously won awards for their product quality are noted for their strong delivery performance, setting benchmarks for high-quality delivery in the industry [22][23]

Summary of Key Points Overall Market Performance - The performance of the CSI 300 and ChiNext indices over the past year shows a significant decline, with the CSI 300 down by 32% and the ChiNext down by 16% [1]. Industry Performance - The top five performing industries yesterday included textiles and apparel (+1.448%), beauty and personal care (+1.014%), telecommunications (+0.971%), banking (+0.897%), and diversified industries (+0.742%) [1]. - Conversely, the bottom five performing industries were defense and military (-1.17%), non-ferrous metals (-0.866%), utilities (-0.801%), steel (-0.580%), and pharmaceuticals and biology (-0.537%) [1]. Communication Industry - The satellite internet construction in China is gradually taking shape, with significant developments in the commercial aerospace industry [10]. - On April 1, 2025, China successfully launched a satellite for internet technology testing, marking a step towards the integration of satellite and terrestrial networks [12]. - The "Thousand Sails Constellation" plan aims to deploy 648 satellites by the end of 2025 and 1,296 satellites globally by 2027, with a long-term goal of 15,000 satellites by 2030 [13]. Coal Mining Industry - China Jushi (600176.SH) reported a significant increase in Q4 2024 performance, with revenue reaching 42.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.49% [16]. - The company’s glass fiber yarn sales reached a record high of 3.025 million tons in 2024, driven by structural optimization and market expansion [17]. Real Estate and Construction Industry - China Overseas Development (00688.HK) ranked first in equity sales and land acquisition, with a steady growth in commercial income [21]. - The company reported a revenue of 1,851.5 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 8.6%, while its equity sales amounted to 3,107 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.3% [22][23]. Food and Beverage Industry - China Feihe (06186.HK) achieved a revenue of 20.749 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, with a proposed dividend of 0.3264 HKD per share [27]. - The company’s ultra-high-end product series continues to drive growth, with a focus on expanding its market share in the infant formula sector [28]. Chemical Industry - Shengquan Group (605589.SH) reported a revenue of 10.02 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 9.87% [37]. - The company is expanding its high-frequency and high-speed resin varieties, indicating a robust growth trajectory [38]. Light Industry - Jiayi Co., Ltd. (301004.SZ) achieved a revenue of 2.836 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 59.8%, supported by strong customer relationships [31]. - The company’s overseas revenue growth is a significant driver of its overall performance [32].

Core Viewpoint - Greentown China faces a significant profit decline despite achieving record sales, indicating a challenging transition under new leadership from Liu Chengyun, who is expected to strengthen the influence of the parent company, China Communications Construction Company (CCCC) [1][3][10]. Group 1: Leadership Changes - Liu Chengyun, a veteran from CCCC, has taken over as chairman of Greentown China following the resignation of Zhang Yadong, marking a shift in management that reflects CCCC's increasing control over the company [2][3]. - Liu Chengyun's appointment is seen as a move to reinforce CCCC's dominance, with his lack of salary indicating a different approach to leadership compared to his predecessor [3][4]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Greentown China's revenue for 2024 reached 158.5 billion yuan, a 21% increase year-on-year, but the net profit attributable to shareholders plummeted by 49% to 1.596 billion yuan, nearly halving [4][6]. - The company's net profit margin fell to 1% in 2024, down from 2.4% in 2023, highlighting ongoing profitability issues despite high sales figures [6][8]. Group 3: Profitability Challenges - The decline in profit is attributed to significant impairment losses, with credit loss provisions increasing by 346% to 1.025 billion yuan and non-financial asset impairment losses rising by 191% to 4.039 billion yuan [7][8]. - Greentown's strategy of acquiring high-priced land for luxury projects has not translated into higher profit margins, as evidenced by a consistent decline in net profit margins over recent years [5][8]. Group 4: Market Position and Future Outlook - Despite not achieving its sales target of 300 billion yuan, Greentown remains the third-largest real estate company in China, reflecting its strong market position [9]. - The transition to Liu Chengyun's leadership comes amid uncertainties regarding the company's strategic direction and operational management, raising questions about future performance [10][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company is expected to lead the industry in performance stabilization due to significant impairment provisions, despite a decline in earnings for 2024 [1]. - The company has a healthy debt structure and maintains smooth financing channels, with a total interest-bearing debt of RMB 137.19 billion, down 6.1% [2]. - The company's sales performance remains strong, with a contract sales amount of RMB 276.8 billion in 2024, showing a decline of only 8.1% compared to the industry [3]. Financial Performance - For 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenue of RMB 158.55 billion, a year-on-year increase of 20.7%, while net profit is expected to decline by 37.9% to RMB 4.15 billion [1][5]. - The gross profit margin for the period is reported at 12.8%, with a slight increase in property development gross margin to 11.7% [1]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at RMB 0.63, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14.7 [5][12]. Sales and Land Acquisition - The company added 42 new projects in 2024, with a land acquisition amount of RMB 48.4 billion, focusing on core cities [3]. - The total land reserve area at the end of 2024 is expected to be 27.47 million square meters, with a total land value of RMB 449.6 billion, of which 76% is located in first and second-tier cities [3]. Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 153.3 billion, RMB 152.9 billion, and RMB 154.3 billion, respectively, with corresponding net profits of RMB 1.57 billion, RMB 2.11 billion, and RMB 3.05 billion [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company is expected to lead the industry in performance stabilization due to significant impairment provisions, despite a decline in earnings for 2024 [1]. - The company has a healthy debt structure and maintains smooth financing channels, with a total interest-bearing debt of RMB 137.19 billion, down 6.1% [2]. - The company's sales performance remains strong, with a contract sales amount of RMB 276.8 billion in 2024, showing a decline of only 8.1% compared to the industry [3]. Financial Performance - For 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenue of RMB 158.55 billion, a year-on-year increase of 20.7%, while net profit is expected to decline by 37.9% to RMB 4.15 billion [1][5]. - The company reported a gross margin of 12.8% for the period, with property development gross margin slightly improving to 11.7% [1]. - The forecasted revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 153.3 billion, RMB 152.9 billion, and RMB 154.3 billion, respectively, with corresponding net profits of RMB 1.57 billion, RMB 2.11 billion, and RMB 3.05 billion [4][5]. Sales and Land Acquisition - The company added 42 new projects in 2024, with a land acquisition amount of RMB 48.4 billion, focusing on core cities [3]. - The company's land reserve at the end of 2024 is projected to be 27.47 million square meters, with a total land value of RMB 449.6 billion, of which 76% is located in first and second-tier cities [3]. Debt and Financing - The company has successfully optimized its debt structure, with a net debt ratio of 56.6% and a cash-to-short-term debt ratio of 2.3 times, indicating financial stability [2]. - The company issued bonds totaling RMB 12.53 billion in 2024, with an average issuance rate of 3.88% [2].

Core Viewpoint - CICC has downgraded the profit forecast for Greentown China for 2025/2026 from 3 billion/3.2 billion to 1.2 billion/1.6 billion, reflecting a year-on-year change of -24%/+30% [1] - The current stock price corresponds to 0.7/0.7 times the 2025/2026 P/B ratio, while the target price has been raised by 13% to HKD 13.0, indicating a 15% upside potential [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Greentown China's 2024 revenue increased by 21% to 158.5 billion, with a slight decline in gross margin by 0.2 percentage points to 12.8% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 48% to 1.6 billion, primarily due to a provision for impairment and fair value losses totaling 4.9 billion, along with a loss of 600 million from joint ventures [2] - The company declared a full-year dividend of 0.3 yuan per share, yielding a dividend rate of 2.9% [2] Group 2: Land Acquisition and Investment Strategy - In 2024, Greentown acquired 42 land parcels with a total equity land acquisition amount of 48.4 billion, ranking fourth in the land acquisition list by CRIC [2] - The company focused on core cities, with 92% of new land prices in first and second-tier cities, up from 84% in 2023 [2] - The new land reserves are expected to contribute 32.5 billion in sales, achieving a conversion rate of 30% [2] Group 3: Financial Health and Debt Management - The company maintained a high collection efficiency with a collection rate of 104%, and interest-bearing debt decreased by 6% to 137.2 billion [3] - Key leverage indicators improved, with the pre-debt ratio and net debt ratio declining by 1.1 and 7.2 percentage points to 68.5% and 56.6%, respectively [3] - The average financing cost at the end of 2024 dropped by 40 basis points to 3.9%, marking the first time it fell below 4% [3] Group 4: Management and Strategic Support - The new chairman from the China Communications Construction Company reflects further support for Greentown, potentially enhancing its financial stability and strategic alignment [4] - The company's strong product capability and flexible operational strategies are expected to leverage the group's credit advantages for greater value release [4] Group 5: Sales Performance Outlook - Greentown's total sales for 2024 are projected at 171.8 billion, with a year-on-year decline of approximately 10% [5] - The company has secured around 200 billion in supply for 2024, with over 80% in first and second-tier cities [5] - If the overall sales rate remains at 62%, the sales could reach 125 billion, with additional contributions from newly acquired land expected to exceed 30 billion [5]