Summary of Greentown China Holdings Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Greentown China Holdings (3900.HK) - **Industry**: Real Estate Development Key Financial Performance - **1H25 Net Profit**: Declined by 90% year-on-year (yoy) to Rmb0.2 billion, aligning with profit alert [1] - **Revenue**: Decreased by 23% yoy to Rmb53.368 billion in 1H25 [9] - **Gross Profit**: Dropped by 21% yoy to Rmb7.159 billion [9] - **Core Profit**: Excluding distribution to PCS, fell by 67% yoy to Rmb1.635 billion [9] - **Impairment Loss**: Increased to -Rmb1.9 billion in 1H25 from -Rmb1.7 billion in 1H24 [1][8] - **Debt Structure**: Total debt increased by 4% from end-24 levels, but short-term debt coverage ratio improved to 2.9X [1][6] Management Guidance and Strategic Outlook - **Contract Sales Guidance**: Revised up for 2025E to approximately flat yoy, supported by Rmb176 billion saleable resources planned for 2H25 [2] - **New Land Acquisitions**: Expected to contribute Rmb50 billion in sales from Rmb91 billion saleable resources [2] - **Portfolio Optimization**: Aimed to fully de-stock Rmb140 billion unsold inventory over the next 3-5 years [2] - **Sales Forecast**: 2025E contract sales forecast raised to Rmb171 billion, flat yoy, with potential upside risk due to new launches [5] Operational Highlights - **Sell-Through Rate**: First-time launched projects achieved an 80% sell-through rate in 1H25, with strong pricing performance [6] - **Land Banking**: Greentown added 35 new projects in 1H25, ranking No.3 nationwide by saleable resources [6] - **Gross Profit Margin (GPM)**: Improved to 12.7% in 1H25, up 1 percentage point yoy [6] Risks and Challenges - **Revenue Contraction**: DP revenue contracted by 22% yoy due to smaller GFA booking [7] - **High SG&A Expenses**: Increased ratio of SG&A expenses against revenue due to low revenue booking [8] - **Impairment Losses**: Continued negative impact from aged inventory sales and impairments [5] Investment Thesis - **Rating**: Buy rating maintained, with a 12-month target price of HK$13.8, based on a 15% discount to end-25E NAV [10][12] - **Market Position**: Greentown is positioned to be among the top-10 companies by profit in China's property sector by 2026E [10] Conclusion - Greentown China Holdings is navigating a challenging environment with significant declines in profit and revenue, but management's strategic focus on land acquisition, sales optimization, and debt management presents a recovery outlook. The company remains a potential investment opportunity with a maintained Buy rating.

【#绿城中国中期净利暴跌90%#，"换帅"后#绿城中国创下19年来最低中期净利#】 近日，绿城中国（03900.HK）公告了2025年中期业绩，这是中交系老将刘成云空降接任董事会主席后 交出的首份"成绩单"。 这份中期业绩报告显示，绿城中国的期内营收、毛利双双下滑，公司股东应占净利润仅为2.1亿元，相 比去年同期的20.45亿元，跌近90%。 2.1亿元的数据，创下绿城中国自2006年在港交所上市以来最低中期净利润纪录。 绿城中国上市首年，即2006年，绿城中期收入为12.10亿元，公司股东应占净利为2.57亿元。如今，绿城 的半年度营收是当年的40多倍，但净利润还不如19年前。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Greentown China (03900.HK) reported a significant decline in net profit despite a substantial increase in revenue, highlighting a concerning trend in profitability relative to its historical performance [1][5]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Greentown China's revenue was RMB 533.68 billion, a decrease of 23% year-on-year, while gross profit fell by 21% to RMB 71.59 billion [2]. - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders was only RMB 2.1 billion, down nearly 90% from RMB 20.45 billion in the same period last year, marking the lowest mid-year net profit since its listing in 2006 [1][2]. - The decline in revenue and profit was attributed to uneven delivery schedules and a 22.7% decrease in area recognized for revenue during the first half of the year [2]. Asset Impairment and Costs - Greentown China recorded asset impairment losses of RMB 19.33 billion in the first half of 2025, which significantly impacted net profit [2]. - The company also reported a non-financial asset impairment loss of RMB 17.17 billion, reflecting a cautious approach to asset valuation amid market conditions [8]. Shareholder Profit Distribution - Non-controlling shareholders took away RMB 10.01 billion of the total profit, which accounted for 83% of the net profit, leaving only RMB 2.1 billion for the company's shareholders [9][10]. - This represents a significant increase in the share of profits taken by non-controlling shareholders compared to the previous year, where they accounted for 38% of the total profit [10]. Market Position and Sales - Despite the profit decline, Greentown China remains a strong player in the real estate market, achieving total contract sales of approximately RMB 1,222 billion in the first half of 2025, ranking second in the industry [3]. - The company maintained a high collection rate of 96% for its sales, supporting further project investments [3]. Financial Health - Greentown China's cash and bank deposits amounted to approximately RMB 667.95 billion, which is 2.9 times its short-term debt, indicating a strong liquidity position [3]. - The company's average cost of debt decreased to 3.6%, down 40 basis points from the previous year, reflecting improved financing conditions [3].

Core Viewpoint - The company has significantly increased land acquisition intensity, but impairment losses have pressured performance. Despite this, sales remain stable, and the company maintains a positive outlook with a "buy" rating. Group 1: Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company reported revenue of 53.368 billion yuan, a decrease of 23.3% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 210 million yuan, down 89.7% year-on-year, primarily due to a 22.7% decline in recognized area and an impairment provision of 1.933 billion yuan, which increased by 183 million yuan compared to the same period in 2024 [1] - The gross profit margin for H1 2025 was 13.4%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, with the development business gross margin at 12.7%, up 1.0 percentage point year-on-year [1] Group 2: Sales and Efficiency - The company achieved a contract sales amount of 122.2 billion yuan in H1 2025, ranking second in total sales; self-invested sales area totaled 2.29 million square meters, with a self-invested sales amount of 80.3 billion yuan, down 6.0% year-on-year; equity sales amounted to 53.9 billion yuan, down 11.3%, with the equity ratio decreasing by 4.1 percentage points to 67.1% [1] - The company’s first project sales rate reached 80%, an increase of 2 percentage points year-on-year, with a premium of 1.5 billion yuan over the base price, resulting in a premium rate of 104% [1] Group 3: Land Acquisition and Financing - In H1 2025, the company added 35 new projects with a total construction area of approximately 3.55 million square meters, an increase of 171% year-on-year; the equity land price was 36.2 billion yuan, with an average floor price of 13,591 yuan per square meter [2] - The expected new value of land is 90.7 billion yuan, an increase of 172% year-on-year, ranking third in the industry, with an equity acquisition intensity of 67%; the value of land in first and second-tier cities accounted for 88%, with Hangzhou accounting for 47% [2] - As of H1 2025, the company had cash on hand of approximately 66.8 billion yuan, which is 2.9 times the balance due within one year, with short-term debt accounting for a historical low of 16.3%, and the average financing cost reduced to 3.6%, a decrease of 40 basis points year-on-year [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company has shown resilience in sales despite a challenging market, with a focus on inventory reduction and strategic land acquisition, while maintaining a stable financial position and financing channels [2][3][22]. Sales Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a contract sales amount of 122.2 billion, with a sales area of 5.35 million square meters, representing a year-on-year decrease of 3.4% and 9.5% respectively [2][4]. - The construction business recorded a sales amount of 41.9 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 1.9%, contributing 34.3% to total sales [2][4]. - The sales target completion rate for self-invested projects reached 53.6%, indicating a strong cash flow with a collection rate of 96% [4][6]. Inventory Management - The company has made progress in inventory reduction, with 19 billion of inventory from 2021 and earlier being liquidated, resulting in a decrease in the proportion of completed unsold properties to 14.9% [6][8]. - The average liquidation rate for the first half of the year was 48%, with a target of 45% for the second half to meet the annual goal of 160 billion for self-invested projects [6][8]. Land Acquisition and Development - The company acquired 35 new land parcels with a total area of 3.55 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 172%, with a new value of 90.7 billion [7][12]. - The land acquisition sales ratio increased to 0.67, indicating a significant increase in land acquisition efforts [7][10]. - The expected sales conversion rate for new projects in 2025 is 55%, which could contribute approximately 50 billion in sales [12][16]. Financial Performance - Total revenue for the first half of 2025 was 53.37 billion, a decrease of 23.3% year-on-year, with recognized revenue of 49.65 billion, down 22.1% [17][27]. - The comprehensive gross margin was 13.4%, a slight increase of 0.3 percentage points, while the net profit margin decreased by 2.5 percentage points to 2.3% [20][27]. - The company issued 7.711 billion in domestic bonds, with an average cost of 4%, and maintained a stable financial condition with a cash coverage ratio of 1.7 times for short-term debts [22][23].

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup's report indicates that Greentown China has shown impressive performance in the first half of the year, ranking among the top five in sales and top three in land acquisitions, which boosts confidence in the company's profit forecasts [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Greentown China's sales for 2025 are projected to reach 170 billion yuan, maintaining its position among the industry's top five [1] - The company is expected to maintain a stable ownership ratio of 70% [1] - The target price for Greentown China has been raised from 12.3 HKD to 13.5 HKD, reflecting a target price-to-earnings ratio increase from 8 times to 9 times [1] Group 2: Financial Metrics - The gross profit margin for Greentown China in 2025 is anticipated to remain under pressure, particularly due to impairments from projects in lower-tier cities, with a new sales gross profit margin estimated at around 15% [1] - The estimated net asset value per share for the company this year is projected to be 18.96 HKD, based on assumptions regarding property completion progress, sales pipeline, and average selling prices [1]

转自：北京日报客户端 8月25日，绿城中国召开中期业绩沟通会。财报显示，2025年上半年，绿城中国取得收入533.68亿元， 同比下降23.3%；公司股东应占利润2.10亿元，同比下降89.7%。 报告期内，该公司新增项目35个，总建筑面积约355万平方米，集团承担成本约362亿元，平均楼面价约 每平方米13591元，预计新增货值达907亿元。新拓项目中，一、二线城市新增货值约801亿元，占比达 88%。 过去两年的城市重磅地块出让中，少不了绿城中国的身影。记者注意到，从2024年3月开始，绿地中国 陆续刷新江苏、上海、杭州甚至全国土拍楼面价纪录，其中上海徐汇区滨江小米地块，总价48.05亿元 斩获，楼面价每平方米高达13.1万元，溢价率约30%。今年以来，该公司延续高价拿地策略，相继拿下 武汉、苏州、上海等多地的区域地王。 一边是高调争夺地王拿地，另一边是营收与利润数据明显下滑，如何平衡长远布局和短期运营？"绿城 在拿地王的过程当中其实是很小心、很纠结。"业绩沟通会上，该公司行政总裁郭佳峰表示，之所以去 拿这些风险很大，价格很高的地，拿地块有成功先例是重要原因。近两年来随着优质低密地块和核心地 块的供应，高 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong property stocks experienced a collective decline after a brief rise, indicating market skepticism about the sustainability of recent policy changes aimed at boosting the real estate sector [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Major property stocks such as Shimao Group, New World Development, and Greentown China saw significant declines, with Shimao Group dropping by 6.4% and New World Development by 4.55% [1] - Other companies like China Jinmao, Midea Real Estate, and Country Garden also faced losses, with declines exceeding 2% [1] Group 2: Policy Impact - The recent policy adjustment in Shanghai, known as "Six Measures," allows unlimited purchases for eligible buyers outside the outer ring and treats single buyers as families, which initially boosted market confidence [1] - Despite the short-term positive impact, there are ongoing doubts about the long-term effectiveness of these policies and the actual improvement in the market fundamentals [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The market requires continuous support beyond initial policy changes, with a focus on whether more cities will follow suit and how existing policies will be implemented, particularly regarding credit support [1]

Core Viewpoint - Greentown China reported a significant decline in profitability for the first half of the year, but maintained a robust performance in sales despite challenging market conditions [1][3]. Financial Performance - As of June 30, Greentown China achieved revenue of 53.368 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.3% [3]. - The company recorded an impairment and fair value change of 1.938 billion yuan, an increase of 10.7% compared to the same period last year [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders plummeted by 89.7% to 210 million yuan, while gross profit fell by 21.4% to 7.159 billion yuan [3]. - The gross margin for the first half was 13.4%, a slight increase of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the delivery of the Shanghai Bund Lanting Phase II project, which contributed nearly 5 billion yuan in revenue with a gross margin of 35% [3][5]. Sales Performance - Greentown China achieved a contract sales amount of approximately 122.2 billion yuan, ranking second in the industry [6]. - The company launched 17 projects in the first half, with a price realization rate of 88% and a de-stocking realization rate of 82%, both exceeding last year's full-year levels [7]. - The company emphasized a strategy focused on balancing speed and price, aiming for high-quality de-stocking without resorting to indiscriminate price cuts [8]. Inventory and Project Management - As of June 30, Greentown China had a saleable value of approximately 270 billion yuan, with about 50% of this value coming from projects acquired in 2021 or earlier [8]. - The company plans to focus on optimizing resource allocation and enhancing the value of existing projects while continuing to promote new projects [8]. Land Acquisition Strategy - In the first half, Greentown China added 35 new projects with a land cost of 36.2 billion yuan, with 88% of the new land located in first- and second-tier cities [12]. - The company intends to slow down its land acquisition pace in the second half, adjusting its annual land acquisition target to between 120 billion and 130 billion yuan based on sales performance and cash flow [12]. Debt and Financial Management - As of June 30, Greentown China's total borrowings increased by 4.3% to 143.027 billion yuan, with bank loans rising by 11.8% [13]. - The net asset liability ratio increased by 7.3 percentage points to 63.9% compared to the end of last year [13]. - The company aims to balance inventory reduction, development, and debt reduction while optimizing its debt structure [13].

Core Insights - The report indicates a recovery signal in the real estate market, with private enterprises strategically acquiring high-premium land parcels, reflecting a restoration of confidence in the sector [4][8][30] - The supply of residential land in first, second, and third-tier cities has shown a mixed trend, with third-tier cities experiencing an increase in both quantity and price, while first and second-tier cities face declines [5][19][30] Group 1: Land Acquisition Trends - In the first seven months of 2025, the top 50 real estate companies added a total of 3,398.59 million square meters of land, marking an 11.45% year-on-year increase [8][11] - Major players like China Overseas Land & Investment, Poly Developments, and Greentown China led in land acquisition, with respective land reserves of 309.37 million square meters, 241.97 million square meters, and 206.03 million square meters [11][30] - The average land acquisition price in July was 5,471.24 yuan per square meter, reflecting a 34% month-on-month decline but an 18.02% year-on-year increase [24][27] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The total number of residential land supply in first, second, and third-tier cities was 437 plots, with a total planned construction area of 2,612.05 million square meters, showing a 4.22% month-on-month decline and a 29.61% year-on-year decline [5][16] - The starting floor price for land was 3,931 yuan per square meter, down 15.07% month-on-month [5][19] - Third-tier cities saw a 21.28% increase in the number of plots and a 22.03% increase in planned construction area, with a 15.75% rise in starting floor prices, indicating a shift towards higher-quality land [5][19][30] Group 3: Policy and Financial Support - The issuance of special bonds by local governments reached a record high in July, with 616.94 billion yuan issued, aimed at enhancing liquidity for local governments and enterprises [22][23] - Policies have been implemented to support land storage and optimize resource allocation, with 1,105 special bond storage projects announced, amounting to approximately 10,263.35 billion yuan [22][23] - The focus on urban renewal has intensified, with central enterprises encouraged to engage in city development and improvement projects, reflecting a shift towards quality enhancement in urban planning [40][41][43]