Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the real estate sector, indicating an expected increase in the industry index exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [32]. Core Insights - The alpha of real estate stocks depends on the precision of land acquisition, with the current macroeconomic environment not supporting a general rise in housing prices, making it challenging for companies to ensure project profitability [6][7]. - The value of real estate stocks is derived from the discounted future residual earnings, which are based on the profitability of each project, ultimately reflecting on ROE and valuation [6][7]. - The report highlights that the market for new homes is contracting, and the effective market area for new homes is shrinking, complicating the identification of valuable land parcels [7][24]. - The report suggests that future sector opportunities will primarily arise from improved land acquisition comfort for real estate companies, transitioning from a contracting to an expanding market [24]. Summary by Sections Industry Basic Data - The real estate sector comprises 107 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 1,233.623 billion and a circulating market value of 1,183.334 billion [2]. Relative Index Performance - The absolute performance over 1 month, 6 months, and 12 months is 7.6%, 16.6%, and 3.4% respectively, while the relative performance is 4.4%, -1.9%, and -12.1% [3]. Project Profitability and Market Dynamics - The profitability of real estate companies is increasingly dependent on project-level earnings, with past profits driven by rising property prices and a focus on debt leverage [6][7]. - The report notes that the supply of quality land has increased, leading to heightened competition among projects, and some older projects may face challenges in sales due to new building regulations [7][24]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that have demonstrated precise land acquisition over the past three years, such as Greentown China, China Resources Land, and Jianfa International Group, while also monitoring companies like China Overseas Grand Oceans and China Jinmao for improvements in land acquisition in the latter half of 2024 [24].

Core Insights - Guangzhou Baiyun District sold two residential land plots for a total price of 1.89 billion yuan, covering a total area of 44,000 square meters and a total construction area of 137,000 square meters [1] Group 1: Land Sale Details - The land sale included a plot acquired by Greentown at a base price of 1.33281 billion yuan, with a floor price of approximately 33,000 yuan per square meter [1] - The specific plot acquired by Greentown has an area of 13,353 square meters and a construction area of 40,059 square meters, with a plot ratio of 3.0 [1] - The location of the plot is in the core area of Baiyun New Town, approximately 400 meters from the interchange station of Line 12 and Line 2 at Baiyun Cultural Square Station [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Greentown China Holdings Limited reported its operational data for the nine months ending September 30, 2025, showing significant sales figures and contract sales amounts [1] Group 2 - In September 2025, Greentown Group achieved sales of 1,966 units, with a sales area of approximately 290,000 square meters and a sales amount of about RMB 12.8 billion, resulting in an average sales price of approximately RMB 43,657 per square meter [1] - From January to September 2025, Greentown Group recorded a total contract sales area of approximately 3.08 million square meters and a total contract sales amount of about RMB 107.9 billion, with the equity amount attributable to Greentown Group being approximately RMB 71.7 billion [1] - The company also reported that there were cumulative signed subscription agreements not yet converted into sales contracts amounting to approximately RMB 3.7 billion, with the equity amount attributable to Greentown Group being about RMB 2.2 billion [1] - In September 2025, Greentown Group's entrusted projects achieved a sales area of approximately 780,000 square meters and a sales amount of about RMB 10 billion [1] - For the period from January to September 2025, the entrusted projects accumulated a sales area of approximately 5.33 million square meters and a sales amount of about RMB 70.6 billion [1] - Overall, as of September 30, 2025, Greentown Group accumulated a total contract sales area of approximately 8.41 million square meters and a total contract sales amount of about RMB 178.5 billion [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a recovery in the real estate market sales in September, with a total sales amount of 26,065.9 billion yuan for the top 100 real estate companies in the first nine months, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 12.2%, but the decline rate has narrowed by 1.1 percentage points compared to the first eight months [1] - In September, the monthly sales of the top 100 real estate companies increased by 11.9% month-on-month, with companies like CIFI, Binjiang, Jinmao, and Poly Real Estate showing strong sales performance [1] - The top five companies by sales amount in the first three quarters are Poly Development, Greentown China, China Overseas Property, China Resources Land, and China Merchants Shekou, with total sales amounts of 201.7 billion yuan, 178.5 billion yuan, 170.5 billion yuan, 154.4 billion yuan, and 140.66 billion yuan respectively [1] Group 2 - The China Index Academy believes that future policies will maintain a loose tone, focusing on the goal of "stopping the decline and stabilizing" and accelerating the implementation of various policies already introduced [1] - It is expected that the supply of new homes in core cities may see a mild improvement, providing some support to the market, although new projects in more cities are limited, indicating that market differentiation will continue [1]

Core Insights - The total land acquisition amount by the top 100 enterprises in the first three quarters reached 727.8 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 36.7%, with the growth rate expanding by 8.7 percentage points compared to the first eight months [1] Group 1: Land Acquisition Trends - In September, several real estate companies acquired large-scale land through acquisitions, leading to an increase in the year-on-year growth of land acquisition amounts [1] - Among the top 10 enterprises by land acquisition amount, 8 are state-owned enterprises [1] Group 2: New Value Addition - In terms of new value added, Greentown China, Poly Developments, and China Overseas Land & Investment ranked as the top three [1] - Greentown China topped the list with a new value of 117.5 billion yuan, followed by Poly Developments with 101 billion yuan, and China Overseas with 95.2 billion yuan [1] - The total new value added by the top 100 enterprises in the first three quarters amounted to 763.8 billion yuan, accounting for 42.5% of the total [1] Group 3: Key Players in Major Cities - State-owned enterprises and local state-owned assets remain the main players in land acquisition among the top 10 enterprises in key cities, while private enterprises are only supplementing land reserves in key areas [1]

Core Insights - The real estate market in Chengdu has shown a significant decrease in transaction volumes for both new and second-hand properties during the week of October 2 to October 8, primarily due to the impact of the holiday season [4][5]. Group 1: Land Market - No land transactions occurred in Chengdu from October 2 to October 8 [2]. Group 2: Transaction Data - Total new residential property transactions in Chengdu for the week amounted to 140 units, with a total area of 18,285.80 square meters [4]. - Daily breakdown of transactions shows fluctuations, with the highest number of transactions occurring on October 8, where 35 units were sold, covering an area of 4,530.60 square meters [3]. Group 3: Second-hand Housing - There were no transactions for second-hand properties in Chengdu during the same week, indicating a notable decline in market activity [5]. Group 4: New Pre-sales - No new pre-sale permits were issued in the greater Chengdu area during the week of October 2 to October 8 [5]. Group 5: Major Events - The National Development Bank reported that since the beginning of the 14th Five-Year Plan, it has issued 978.1 billion yuan in special loans for urban village renovations, supporting 816 projects and providing 176.9 thousand units of resettlement housing [6]. - A report from CRIC Research Center indicated that real estate financing for the first three quarters of 2025 totaled 307.2 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 30% [6]. - Greentown China announced a total contract sales amount of 178.5 billion yuan for the first nine months of 2025, with a sales area of approximately 8.41 million square meters [6].

Core Insights - Real estate companies are continuing to focus on "core city concentration and risk control" in their land acquisition strategies, with significant differentiation in investment pace among firms [1][6] - The top state-owned enterprises dominate core city land acquisitions due to their financial advantages, while mixed-ownership and private enterprises are adopting more cautious investment approaches [1][6] Land Acquisition Trends - In September 2025, the top 50 real estate companies added a total of 2.2564 million square meters of land, representing a month-on-month decrease of 54.03%. However, the cumulative land area acquired from January to August reached 36.2423 million square meters, showing a year-on-year increase of 7.19% [1][3] - Leading companies in land acquisition include China Overseas Land & Investment, China Merchants Shekou, and Poly Developments, with land reserves of 3.0937 million square meters, 2.7564 million square meters, and 2.6719 million square meters, respectively [3][4] Investment Amounts and New Value - The top five companies in terms of land investment amounts from January to August are China Resources Land, China Overseas Land & Investment, Greentown China, Poly Developments, and China Merchants Shekou, with respective investment amounts of 58.45 billion yuan, 55.01 billion yuan, 50.24 billion yuan, 47.87 billion yuan, and 40.46 billion yuan [3][4] - The companies with the highest new land value added during the same period are Poly Developments, China Overseas Land & Investment, and China Merchants Shekou, with new values of 89.45 billion yuan, 81.09 billion yuan, and 80.69 billion yuan, respectively [3][4] Recent Land Acquisitions - In August, China Resources Land acquired three plots in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou, with a total land area of 383,900 square meters and an acquisition amount of 26 billion yuan [3][5] - China Merchants Shekou secured four plots in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Xi'an, totaling 437,100 square meters for 12.875 billion yuan, while Poly Developments acquired two plots in Sanya for 1.134 billion yuan [3][5] Market Dynamics - The current land acquisition landscape shows significant differentiation, with top state-owned enterprises frequently acquiring land in major cities, while mixed-ownership and private firms are focusing on risk aversion and financial safety [6] - The competition for high-quality land plots remains intense, and the divergence in investment strategies among companies is expected to deepen, leading to a more pronounced structural differentiation in market activity [6]

Core Insights - The report from Guandian Index indicates that the top 50 real estate companies added a total of 2.2564 million square meters of land in August, representing a month-on-month decrease of 54.03% [1] - However, the cumulative land area acquired by these companies from January to August reached 36.2423 million square meters, showing a year-on-year increase of 7.19% [1] Group 1: Land Acquisition Trends - Leading companies in land acquisition include China Overseas Land & Investment, China Merchants Shekou, and Poly Developments, with new land reserves of 3.0937 million square meters, 2.7564 million square meters, and 2.6719 million square meters respectively [3] - The companies with the highest land investment amounts from January to August are China Resources Land, China Overseas Land & Investment, and Greentown China, with equity land acquisition amounts of 58.45 billion yuan, 55.01 billion yuan, and 50.24 billion yuan respectively [3] - The companies with the most new land value added from January to August are Poly Developments, China Overseas Land & Investment, and China Merchants Shekou, with new land values of 89.45 billion yuan, 81.09 billion yuan, and 80.69 billion yuan respectively [3] Group 2: Strategic Focus and Market Dynamics - The land acquisition strategy remains focused on "core city concentration and risk control priority," with leading state-owned enterprises leveraging their financial and resource advantages to compete for quality core land [4][5] - Mixed-ownership and private enterprises are adopting a more cautious investment approach, emphasizing risk control and slowing down their land acquisition pace [4][5] - A notable transaction in August involved a joint bid by China Merchants and China Resources for a plot in Shenzhen, which was sold for 8.64 billion yuan, marking the highest total price for a land plot in Shenzhen this year [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - The current land acquisition landscape shows significant differentiation, with top state-owned enterprises actively acquiring land in major cities, while mixed-ownership and private firms are focusing on financial safety and precise layouts [5] - The competition for quality land is expected to remain intense under the "core city focus + risk control priority" framework, leading to a more pronounced structural differentiation in market activity [5]

Group 1 - In September 2025, Greentown Group launched 14 self-invested projects with a total sales area of approximately 210,000 square meters and achieved sales of 1,966 units, amounting to approximately RMB 12.8 billion, with an average selling price of RMB 43,657 per square meter [3] - From January to September 2025, Greentown Group recorded a total contracted sales area of approximately 3.08 million square meters and a total sales amount of approximately RMB 107.9 billion, with equity attributable to Greentown Group amounting to approximately RMB 71.7 billion [3] - As of September 30, 2025, Greentown Group had a total contracted sales area of approximately 8.41 million square meters and a total contracted sales amount of approximately RMB 178.5 billion [3] Group 2 - On September 17, 2025, Greentown China successfully issued its seventh tranche of medium-term notes for 2025, with a total issuance size of RMB 1 billion and a coupon rate of 3.18% [3] - Greentown China has been recognized as a leading brand in customer satisfaction in the Chinese real estate industry for 14 consecutive years, ranking in the top three in brand value with RMB 117.6 billion [4] - Greentown China received multiple industry honors, including being listed among the top 10 real estate development companies by brand value and top 10 in delivery brand influence for the first half of 2025 [4]

Core Insights - The real estate market shows signs of recovery in September, with the top 100 real estate companies achieving a sales amount of 252.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.4% and a month-on-month increase of 22.2% [1] - A total of 72 out of the top 100 companies reported month-on-month sales growth, with 45 companies experiencing growth rates exceeding 30% [1] - The cumulative sales for the top 100 companies from January to September reached 2,606.59 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 12.2%, but the rate of decline has narrowed compared to previous months [1] Company Performance - Poly Developments leads the industry with a sales figure of 201.7 billion yuan, followed by Greentown China and China Overseas Land & Investment with sales of 178.5 billion yuan and 170.5 billion yuan, respectively [2] - The top six companies also include China Resources Land, China Merchants Shekou, and Vanke, with sales figures of 154.4 billion yuan, 140.66 billion yuan, and 100.29 billion yuan [2] Land Acquisition Trends - The enthusiasm for land acquisition among real estate companies has increased, with the total land acquisition amount for the top 100 companies reaching 727.8 billion yuan from January to September, a year-on-year increase of 36.7% [2] - Leading companies in new land value include Greentown China, Poly Developments, and China Overseas Land & Investment, with new land values of 117.5 billion yuan, 101 billion yuan, and 95.2 billion yuan, respectively [2] Market Dynamics and Policy Impact - The recovery in sales is attributed to seasonal factors, relaxed purchase restrictions in core cities, and the introduction of new products by real estate companies [1][3] - Several core cities have continued to optimize demand-side policies, such as relaxing purchase restrictions in non-core areas and expanding the use of housing provident funds [3] - Despite improvements in core cities, many other cities still face a relatively flat market, indicating ongoing adjustment pressures [3]