Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for Greentown China (03900.HK) [1][7]. Core Views - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 was approximately 53.368 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.5%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was about 210 million yuan, down 89.7% year-on-year [1]. - The decline in revenue is primarily attributed to uneven delivery schedules between the first and second halves of 2025, with a 22.7% year-on-year decrease in recognized area for the first half of 2025 [7]. - The company has maintained a stable gross profit margin of approximately 13.41% in the first half of 2025, compared to 13.09% in the same period of 2024 [7]. - Greentown China has actively pursued land acquisition, adding 35 new projects in the first half of 2025, with an expected sale value of approximately 50 billion yuan for the year [7]. - The company has a strong cash flow position, with cash and cash equivalents of about 66.8 billion yuan, which is 2.9 times the amount of short-term borrowings due within one year [7]. - The report adjusts the earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025-2027 to 0.40, 0.61, and 0.95 yuan, respectively, and sets a target price of 13.4 HKD for 2025, corresponding to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 30 times [7]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 159.135 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 20.6%, while for 2025, it is expected to decline by 9.6% to 143.805 billion yuan [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to decrease significantly in 2025 to 1.022 billion yuan, a drop of 36.0% from 2024 [3]. - The company’s total assets are estimated to be 507.785 billion yuan in 2024, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 76.97% [4][9].

Core Points - Greentown China reported a mid-year revenue of 53.368 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a 23.28% decrease compared to the "strongest" performance in 2024, but still the fourth highest since 2008 [1][3] - The company's net profit fell to 210 million yuan, a record low, representing an 89.74% decline year-on-year, with a net profit margin dropping from 3.1% in 2024 to 0.39% in 2025 [3][4] - The management attributed the revenue decline to a 22.7% drop in recognized area for the first half of the year, primarily due to delivery schedules, but expects an increase in deliveries in the second half [1][3] - The market remains skeptical about Greentown's performance, as evidenced by its stock price movements, which lagged behind other real estate companies despite overall market gains [1][3] Financial Performance - Revenue for the first half of 2025 was 53.368 billion yuan, down from 69.562 billion yuan in 2024 [4] - Net profit was 210 million yuan, down from 2.045 billion yuan in 2024 [4] - The company has recognized approximately 10 billion yuan in asset impairment losses since 2021, primarily from projects before 2021 [4][5] Inventory and Asset Management - Greentown's current inventory turnover days stand at 487 days, exceeding the industry average [7] - The company has approximately 800 billion yuan in remaining inventory to process, with an estimated equity inventory exceeding 300 billion yuan [5][6] - The management is focused on reducing old project inventory, which is critical for restoring net profit [6] Debt and Financial Strategy - As of June 30, 2025, Greentown's total liabilities were 398.791 billion yuan, with interest-bearing debt at 143.027 billion yuan [13] - The average interest cost of total borrowings decreased to 3.6% from 4.0% in 2024 [8] - The company plans to balance debt reduction with inventory clearance and development, indicating a cautious approach to land acquisition moving forward [13] Market Position and Strategy - Greentown continues to pursue scale, launching 35 new projects in the first half of 2025, with a total construction area of approximately 3.55 million square meters [11] - The company has been actively acquiring land at high premiums, with notable transactions in various cities [11][12] - Despite maintaining a high leverage ratio, the company is optimizing its debt structure and liquidity indicators [8][12]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that Greentown China (03900) is adopting a more balanced approach to reduce its land reserve risks, which may slow down its real estate sales growth next year and negatively impact profit recovery due to lower-than-expected gross margin performance [1] Group 1: Company Performance - The company's valuation is considered too expensive, leading to a downgrade from "Overweight" to "Underweight" with a target price reduction from HKD 11.62 to HKD 8.55 [1] - Greentown China is expected to take longer than anticipated to restore profits to levels seen before the decline in 2022 [1] Group 2: Earnings Forecast - Earnings estimates for the group from 2025 to 2027 have been reduced by 15%, 35%, and 22% respectively, reflecting weak real estate sales and a slowdown in profit margin recovery [1]

按管理层指引，该行对公司今年合约销售额预测上调至1,710亿元人民币，同比持平，意味下半年销售 同比增长5%。该行上调公司明年及后年合约销售预测5%及7%。该行亦调整对公司今年至2027年核心利 润预测，由下调8%至上调9%，预测今年收入跌4%，明年至后年收入基本持平，约1,500亿元人民币。 该行亦预期公司交付项目平均毛利率预测提高0.4个百分点。 高盛发布研报称，绿城中国(03900)上半年净利润同比跌90%至2亿人民币，符合盈警，主要受项目交付 进度不均导致交付物业收入收缩、销售及行政费用相对比例过高、减值损失较去年同期扩大拖累，尽管 交付物业毛利率同比改善部分纾缓影响。若剔除汇兑损失和减值，估算其核心利润同比跌67%至16亿元 人民币。该行对公司年底每股资产净值预估从14港元上调至14.9港元。目标价从13港元上调至13.8港 元，为预测资产净值折让15%，维持"买入"评级。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has downgraded Greentown China (03900) from "Overweight" to "Underweight," citing concerns over the company's ability to recover profits and achieve sales growth due to its balanced approach to reducing land reserve risks [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Company Performance - Greentown China is adopting a more balanced strategy to mitigate land reserve risks, which may slow down its real estate sales growth in the coming year [1] - The company's gross margin performance is expected to be below expectations, impacting its profit recovery [1] Financial Projections - Morgan Stanley believes that Greentown China will require a longer time frame than anticipated to restore profits to levels seen before the decline in 2022 [1] - The firm has revised its earnings estimates for Greentown China for 2025 to 2027 down by 15%, 35%, and 22% respectively, reflecting weak real estate sales and a slowdown in margin recovery [1] Valuation - The target price for Greentown China has been reduced from HKD 11.62 to HKD 8.55, indicating that the current valuation is considered too high [1]

按管理层指引，该行对公司今年合约销售额预测上调至1,710亿元人民币，同比持平，意味下半年销售 同比增长5%。该行上调公司明年及后年合约销售预测5%及7%。该行亦调整对公司今年至2027年核心利 润预测，由下调8%至上调9%，预测今年收入跌4%，明年至后年收入基本持平，约1,500亿元人民币。 该行亦预期公司交付项目平均毛利率预测提高0.4个百分点。 智通财经APP获悉，高盛发布研报称，绿城中国(03900)上半年净利润同比跌90%至2亿人民币，符合盈 警，主要受项目交付进度不均导致交付物业收入收缩、销售及行政费用相对比例过高、减值损失较去年 同期扩大拖累，尽管交付物业毛利率同比改善部分纾缓影响。若剔除汇兑损失和减值，估算其核心利润 同比跌67%至16亿元人民币。该行对公司年底每股资产净值预估从14港元上调至14.9港元。目标价从13 港元上调至13.8港元，为预测资产净值折让15%，维持"买入"评级。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's research report indicates that Greentown China is adopting a more balanced approach to reduce its land reserve risks, which may slow down its real estate sales growth next year and negatively impact profit recovery due to lower-than-expected gross margin performance [1] Group 1: Company Valuation and Ratings - Morgan Stanley believes that Greentown China's valuation is too high, downgrading its rating from "Overweight" to "Underweight" [1] - The target price for Greentown China has been reduced from HKD 11.62 to HKD 8.55 [1] Group 2: Earnings Forecast Adjustments - The company is expected to take longer than anticipated to restore profits to levels seen before the decline in 2022 [1] - Earnings estimates for the group from 2025 to 2027 have been cut by 15%, 35%, and 22% respectively, reflecting weak real estate sales and a slowdown in profit margin recovery [1]

在充满变数的市场环境中，绿城中国上半年虽面临盈利挑战，但在销售领域却展现出了稳健的表现。8月25日，该公司举办中期业绩发布会，执行总裁耿 忠强在会上分享了公司上半年的经营概况。 据披露，截至6月末，绿城中国的营收为533.68亿元，与去年同期相比下降了23.3%。同时，若干资产的减值及公允价值变动净额达到19.38亿元，同比增 长10.7%；归母净利润为2.1亿元，同比大幅下滑89.7%；毛利为71.59亿元，同比下降21.4%。 行政总裁郭佳峰在业绩会上介绍，当前土地市场仍在筑底，但分化加剧，三四线城市较冷，一二线城市地王频出。面对这样的局面，绿城中国维持较高的 拿地标准，上半年新增35个项目，权益土地款362亿元，新增货值907亿元，且一二线城市占比高达88%。 不过，上半年的"广积粮"也导致绿城中国的负债水平同步升高。报告期内，公司的净资产负债率较去年底提升7.3个百分点，为63.9%。对此，耿忠强表 示，负债率的偏高是事实，但后续优化负债结构的整体方向不会变。他预计，到今年底，公司总负债的额度降幅将与去年相当，并强调将在去库存、谋发 展、降负债之间做好平衡。 不过，从全年来看，受收入结转结构和重难点库 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with revenue at 53.37 billion yuan, down 23.3% year-on-year, and net profit at 210 million yuan, down 89.7% year-on-year [8][9] - The decrease in revenue is attributed to a decline in the area of property delivered, which fell by 22.7% year-on-year, impacting the company's revenue [8][10] - Despite the challenges, the company's sales decline was less than the average decline of the top 10 real estate companies, with total contract sales down 3.4% to 122.2 billion yuan [8][10] - The company has a strong land acquisition strategy, with 35 new land parcels acquired in the first half of 2025, totaling a buildable area of 3.55 million square meters, representing a 171% increase year-on-year [8][10] - The company maintains a solid financial position with a cash-to-short-term debt ratio of 2.9, indicating strong liquidity [10] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 153.16 billion yuan, 153.46 billion yuan, and 155.96 billion yuan respectively, with net profits projected at 1.4 billion yuan, 1.59 billion yuan, and 1.81 billion yuan [8][10] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 0.55 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 16.76 [8][10] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to decline to 3.77% in 2025, with a gradual recovery in subsequent years [8][10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][3] Core Insights - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 53.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.5%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 210 million yuan, down 89.7% year-on-year, primarily due to uneven revenue recognition and asset impairment provisions totaling approximately 2 billion yuan [8][3] - The company achieved a total sales area of 5.35 million square meters in the first half of 2025, a decrease of 10% year-on-year, with total sales amounting to 122.2 billion yuan, a decline of 3% year-on-year, ranking second in the industry [10][3] - The company has a strong focus on high-tier cities, with 86% of sales coming from first and second-tier cities, and a collection rate of 94% [10][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a significant decline in net profit due to asset impairment and uneven revenue recognition, with a forecasted net profit of 1 billion yuan for 2025 and 1.1 billion yuan for 2026 [3][4] - The average financing cost has reached a new low of 3.4%, with a cash short-term debt ratio of 2.9 times, indicating a solid financial position [15][3] Sales and Land Acquisition - In the first half of 2025, the company added 35 new projects with a total construction area of 3.55 million square meters, corresponding to a new value of 90.7 billion yuan, ranking third in the industry [10][3] - The company’s land reserves have a total value of 451.8 billion yuan, with 80% located in first and second-tier cities [10][3] Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been slightly adjusted to 140.3 billion yuan and 128.7 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS estimates of 0.40 yuan and 0.45 yuan [3][4] - The company maintains a strong market position with a focus on high-quality urban areas, which is expected to support future growth despite current challenges [10][3]