中金研究 党的二十届四中全会于2025年10月20日至23日在北京举行，会议公报于10月23日发布，会议审议通过了《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社 会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》[1]。中国的2035远期目标并未变化，但相比"十四五"规划发布时，当前的发展条件发生了若干变化，我 们以三个方面为例。一是自主科技创新取得了显著进步，积累了丰富经验；二是房地产调整，经济结构改善，但需求偏弱；三是地缘环境 发生深刻调整。面对这些变化，"十五五"规划也将进行相应调整。比如，1）提高对科技创新的要求（抢占科技发展制高点）；2）强调扩 大内需 ； 3）把开放提到了更加靠前的位置。这些方向有助于我们理解"十五五"规划的主线。 向前看，宏观经济和政策走势如何？对各类资产有何影响？请听中金公司总量及行业为您联合解读。 宏观：新环境下的三条主线 "十四五"是中国金融周期见顶转向、经济加速转型的关键时期。 金融周期是指房价和信贷互相加强而形成的大周期，金融周期调整后，经济 发展模式由较多依赖房地产和传统基建转向更加依靠新经济的发展模式。"十四五"期间经济增速下行压力加大，但经济结构得以改善，经济发 展的质量得到提高。《第二十届中央委员 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, China International Capital Corporation (CICC), is experiencing a positive outlook with projected significant profit growth for the first half of 2025, driven by its core business segments and market positioning [2][3]. Company Overview - CICC is a state-owned enterprise controlled by Central Huijin Investment Ltd, and it operates under the "Zhongzi" stock category, indicating its ties to central state-owned enterprises [3]. - The company was established on July 31, 1995, and listed on November 2, 2020, with its main business activities including investment banking, equity sales and trading, fixed income, commodities, wealth management, and investment management [6]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to June 2025, CICC expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of between RMB 3.453 billion and RMB 3.966 billion, representing a growth of 55% to 78% compared to the previous year's net profit of RMB 2.228 billion [3]. - As of June 30, 2025, CICC reported a net profit of RMB 4.33 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 94.35% [7]. Shareholder and Market Activity - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders decreased by 11.17% to 124,000, while the average number of circulating shares per person increased by 12.62% to 23,649 shares [7]. - The company has distributed a total of RMB 4.924 billion in dividends since its A-share listing, with RMB 2.607 billion distributed over the past three years [8]. Market Position and Trading Activity - CICC's stock price increased by 1.20% on October 23, 2023, with a trading volume of RMB 570 million and a market capitalization of RMB 182.808 billion [1]. - The stock is currently trading between a resistance level of RMB 39.81 and a support level of RMB 36.17, indicating potential for range trading [5]. Institutional Holdings - As of June 30, 2025, major shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which increased its holdings by 21.63 million shares, and several ETFs that have shown varying changes in their holdings [9].

智通财经APP讯，中金公司(03908)发布公告，依据《上海证券交易所公司债券上市规则》等规定，经本 公司申请，中国国际金融股份有限公司 2024 年面向专业机构投资者公开发行公司债券(第一期)(品种二) (续发行)将于 2025 年 10 月 24 日起在上海证券交易所与存量债券合并上市交易、合并托管，并采取匹 配成交、点击成交、询价成交、竞买成交、协商成交交易方式。存量债券规模为 15 亿元，续发行规模 为 17 亿元。 该债券证券全称为中国国际金融股份有限公司 2024 年面向专业机构投资者公开发行公司债券(第一期) (品种二)，证券简称为 24 中金 G2，证券代码为 240635，保持不变。 （原标题：中金公司(03908)2024年面向专业机构投资者公开发行公司债券(第一期)(品种二)(续发行)上 市交易） ...

该债券证券全称为中国国际金融股份有限公司 2024 年面向专业机构投资者公开发行公司债券(第一期) (品种二)，证券简称为 24 中金 G2，证券代码为 240635，保持不变。 中金公司（601995）(03908)发布公告，依据《上海证券交易所公司债券上市规则》等规定，经本公司 申请，中国国际金融股份有限公司 2024 年面向专业机构投资者公开发行公司债券(第一期)(品种二)(续 发行)将于 2025 年 10 月 24 日起在上海证券交易所与存量债券合并上市交易、合并托管，并采取匹配成 交、点击成交、询价成交、竞买成交、协商成交交易方式。存量债券规模为 15 亿元，续发行规模为 17 亿元。 ...

格隆汇10月23日丨中金公司(03908.HK)发布公告，中国国际金融股份有限公司2024年面向专业机构投资 者公开发行公司债券(第一期)(品种二)(续发行)将于2025年10月24日起在上海证券交易所与存量债券合并 上市交易、合并托管，并采取匹配成交、点击成交、询价成交、竞买成交、协商成交交易方式。存量债 券规模为15亿元，续发行规模为17亿元。 该债券证券全称为中国国际金融股份有限公司2024年面向专业机构投资者公开发行公司债券(第一期)(品 种二)，证券简称为24中金G2，证券代码为240635，保持不变。 ...

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其 準確性或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因本公告全部或任何部份內容 而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 （股份代號：03908） 海外監管公告 本公告乃根據香港聯合交易所有限公司證券上市規則第13.10B條而作出。 茲載列中國國際金融股份有限公司（「本公司」）在上海證券交易所網站刊登的關於本公司 2024年面向專業機構投資者公開發行公司債券（第一期）（品種二）（續發行）上市交易的公 告，僅供參閱。 China International Capital Corporation Limited 中 國 國 際 金 融 股 份 有 限 公 司 （於中華人民共和國註冊成立的股份有限公司） 承董事會命 中國國際金融股份有限公司 该债券证券全称为中国国际金融股份有限公司 2024 年面向专业机构投资者公开发 行公司债券（第一期）（品种二），证券简称为 24 中金 G2，证券代码为 240635，保持不 变。 其它具体条款内容见债券续发行募集说明书或续发行公告。 (此页无正文，为《关于中国国际金融股份有限公司 202 ...

Group 1 - Former Vice President of GF Securities, Li Qian, has joined Ping An Securities as the proposed General Manager, marking a significant personnel change that enhances Ping An's executive team and reflects its talent strategy [1][2] - Li Qian holds a PhD in Economics from Renmin University of China and has extensive experience across banking and securities, having held key positions in both sectors [1][2] - This move is indicative of the increasing competition for talent within the financial industry, potentially leading to an evolution in the competitive landscape among leading brokerage firms [2] Group 2 - Public funds have shown increased enthusiasm for participating in private placements, particularly in technology leaders like Cambrian and Shenghong Technology, indicating a strategic shift towards technology investments [3][4] - Cambrian's recent private placement raised approximately 3.985 billion yuan, with participation from 13 institutions, while Shenghong Technology raised about 1.9 billion yuan with 10 institutions involved [4][5] - The surge in private placements reflects institutional recognition of the long-term value in technology sectors, potentially boosting market interest and capital inflow into these areas [3][4] Group 3 - Public funds have distributed over 188.1 billion yuan in dividends this year, with a notable increase in both the number of distributions and total amount compared to the previous year [4][5] - The increase in dividends is seen as a strategy by fund managers to reward investors, which may enhance market confidence, particularly for dividend-focused and bond funds [4][5] - This trend of increased dividends could provide liquidity to the market while also impacting fund net values and long-term investment strategies [4][5] Group 4 - CICC has established a new industrial investment fund in Suzhou with a capital contribution of 1 billion yuan, focusing on equity investments in unlisted companies [6][7] - This initiative highlights the deepening collaboration between leading brokerages and industrial capital, aiming to enhance investment influence in advanced manufacturing sectors [6][7] - The fund's establishment is expected to drive capital attention towards local high-end equipment industries, fostering structural vitality in the market [6][7]

Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive overview of China's economy, market, and asset prices, summarizing insights from various research teams within the company [1]. Macroeconomic Analysis - The focus is on the effectiveness of growth-stabilizing policies and changes in geopolitical situations [3]. - Exports show resilience despite external demand fluctuations, supported by strong manufacturing competitiveness and diversified export destinations [3]. - Consumption and investment have weakened, with consumption declining due to weak income expectations and diminishing effects of trade-in programs, while investment in infrastructure, manufacturing, and real estate has also decreased [3]. - Inflation is expected to recover slightly from low levels due to policies aimed at reducing ineffective competition, although overall price levels remain low and uncertain [3]. - Policies are anticipated to moderately support growth in the fourth quarter, with high fiscal deposit growth allowing for increased investment [3]. Market Strategy - The macroeconomic environment is stabilizing but slightly slowing, with domestic demand affected by reduced trade-in incentives and overall weak demand [21]. - A-shares are expected to show improved earnings growth in the second half of the year, although the real estate sector continues to face challenges [22]. - The valuation of A-shares remains reasonable compared to historical averages and offers attractive investment opportunities relative to global markets [22]. - Recommendations include focusing on sectors less correlated with economic cycles, such as AI, and those with resilient external demand, like engineering machinery and innovative pharmaceuticals [22]. Investment Trends - The report highlights a decline in fixed asset investment growth, with significant drops in infrastructure and real estate investments [6][7]. - The export growth rate remains strong, particularly in non-U.S. markets, despite some challenges in U.S. trade relations [9][39]. - The report notes a slight recovery in inflation, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) showing signs of stabilization [11][43]. Sector Performance - In the third quarter, sectors such as telecommunications, electronics, and non-ferrous metals led the A-share market performance [26]. - The report indicates a significant disparity in sector earnings, with some sectors like real estate and transportation facing substantial declines [47][51]. Foreign Investment - The report discusses the inflow of foreign capital into A-shares, with a notable increase in the proportion of institutional investors in the market [54][86]. - The valuation of foreign-held A-shares is analyzed, showing a trend of increasing premiums compared to domestic shares [76][78].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese market is becoming a focal point for global investors, with experts from top investment institutions expressing optimism about investment opportunities despite a complex global macro environment [1]. Group 1: Market Outlook - The current bull market in A-shares is believed to be in its second phase, driven by fundamental improvements rather than just policy [3]. - The bull market is compared to the "5·19 market" of 1999, indicating a similar macro policy shift and market sentiment recovery [3]. - The market is expected to continue its upward trajectory, with technology as the main driver and value sectors like real estate and liquor showing potential for revaluation [4]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Investment strategies recommended include focusing on high-tech sectors such as AI, automation, and biotechnology, while also considering high-quality dividend stocks to mitigate short-term volatility [9]. - The MSCI China index is projected to exceed a net asset return of 12% by the end of 2026, indicating a positive long-term outlook for Chinese equities [9]. - Gold is highlighted as a valuable asset for diversification and risk hedging, with expectations of a 5% price increase due to geopolitical uncertainties and central bank purchases [12]. Group 3: Global Economic Context - The global investment landscape is shifting, with long-term capital from Europe, Latin America, and the Middle East increasingly entering the Chinese market [11]. - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are expected to influence global asset allocation, with a projected total reduction of 75 basis points by the first quarter of next year [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that despite the complex global macro environment, investment opportunities in the Chinese market are becoming increasingly prominent, with a bullish outlook on the A-share market and a focus on technology and high-dividend strategies [2]. Group 1: Market Outlook - The current bull market in A-shares is believed to be in its second phase, driven by fundamental improvements, with the starting point traced back to September 24 of last year [4]. - The bull market is compared to the "5·19行情" of 1999, indicating a similar macro policy-driven initiation during a period of market adjustment [4]. - The market is currently experiencing a phase where technology is the main focus, with value sectors like real estate and liquor showing potential for revaluation [5]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Investment strategies recommended include focusing on high-quality assets amidst global economic slowdowns and adjusting allocations among stocks, bonds, commodities, and currencies [9]. - Long-term investment areas highlighted include AI, energy, and health economics, particularly where AI intersects with health [12]. - The article suggests maintaining a position in gold as a hedge against market volatility, with expectations of a 5% price increase due to various supporting factors [9][13]. Group 3: Global Context - The article notes a trend of global diversification in investments, with long-term funds from Europe, Latin America, and the Middle East beginning to enter the Chinese market [12]. - The anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are expected to influence global asset allocation, with a projected total of 75 basis points of cuts by the first quarter of next year [12].