Core Viewpoint - Microsoft is set to announce its Q2 FY2026 earnings on January 28, with expected revenue of $80.23 billion, reflecting a 15.2% growth, and an anticipated EPS of $3.88, representing a 20.1% year-over-year increase. The market's focus is shifting from whether Microsoft will exceed overall performance expectations to its execution in cloud business growth, AI monetization, and profit margins [1] Revenue Growth - Cloud Computing as Core Driver - Azure will be pivotal in determining the stock price reaction post-earnings. The market is less concerned about whether Microsoft will exceed consensus expectations and more focused on whether cloud business growth has stabilized or is beginning to accelerate again compared to the previous quarter [2] AI Monetization - Actual Signal or Narrative? - AI remains central to Microsoft's valuation, but the market now requires evidence of revenue generation. The focus is on whether AI has led to incremental sales and billable Azure demand, rather than merely supporting product positioning [4] Profit Margins - Cloud Efficiency and Rising Costs - As Microsoft increases investments in AI and data centers, profit margins remain a critical sensitivity point. The market will compare operating margins with the previous quarter to assess whether cloud computing efficiency offsets higher costs related to computing power, energy, and infrastructure [5] Productivity and More Personal Computing - Beyond cloud and AI, Microsoft's productivity and PC segments provide potential demand signals. Pricing power of Office and Microsoft 365 will be viewed as indicators of enterprise resilience, while Windows OEM demand may suggest stabilization in the PC cycle [6] True Catalyst - Guidance and Outlook - Guidance is likely to drive post-earnings reactions. The market will focus on the tone of guidance for Q1 and the full year, particularly regarding cloud demand and spending trends [7] Capital Expenditure and Investment Spending - As Microsoft continues to expand AI and data center investments, capital expenditure guidance will be closely scrutinized. The market remains sensitive to the narrative of "spending now for future profits," especially in a high-interest-rate environment [8]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry and Company Involvement - **ServiceTitan**: A vertical software company providing an end-to-end operational platform for various industries, including residential and commercial sectors [2] - **Via Transportation**: A transportation service company that recently went public [4] - **Intuit**: A financial software company aiming for significant revenue growth through new product cycles [5] - **Oracle**: A technology company focusing on GPU as a service, facing challenges in execution [6] - **Microsoft Azure**: A cloud computing service experiencing strong demand but facing capacity issues [7][8] - **OpenAI**: A partner of Microsoft, with significant revenue implications for Azure [9][10] - **ServiceNow**: A cloud computing company with a focus on IT service management [16] Core Insights and Arguments - **ServiceTitan's Competitive Advantage**: The company has a strong moat due to proprietary data and end-to-end process control, which limits competition. Its AI features are additional purchases, enhancing value and market confidence [2] - **Via Transportation's Stock Performance**: The stock dropped significantly post-IPO due to only slightly exceeding expectations. However, if the company can maintain over 30% growth, it may lead to a reassessment of its valuation [4] - **Intuit's Growth Potential**: Intuit aims for a 20% revenue growth driven by advancements in tax services and expansion into the mid-market accounting sector, potentially doubling revenue and earnings per share by FY2030 [5] - **Oracle's GPU Service Challenges**: The company requires substantial investment (over $400 billion in the next 3-4 years) to develop its GPU service, with execution risks reflected in its stock price [6] - **Azure's Capacity Issues**: Azure faces a supply-demand imbalance, with strong growth in commercial bookings. New data centers will take time to build, but contracts with emerging cloud vendors may accelerate growth [7][8] Additional Important Insights - **OpenAI's Risk Exposure**: Microsoft's partnership with OpenAI presents risks due to reliance on a single client for significant revenue. Transparency in order growth and diversification of client base is crucial [9][10] - **ServiceNow's Performance**: Despite lowering guidance due to federal business risks, ServiceNow's core business remains strong, with growth in IT asset management and new AI solutions contributing to revenue [16] - **Microsoft 365 Copilot's Market Position**: The usage of Microsoft 365 Copilot is increasing, indicating strong market acceptance despite competition. CIOs prioritize infrastructure and data governance when evaluating competing products [11][12] - **Investor Focus Areas**: Investors should monitor Azure's growth, operational efficiency, and the impact of rising memory and electricity costs on margins [14][15]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming "super earnings week" will see major tech companies like Microsoft, Apple, and Tesla, as well as storage giants Samsung and SK Hynix, release their earnings reports, with a focus on AI technology and the semiconductor cycle [1] Group 1: Earnings Reports - Major tech companies including Microsoft, Apple, and Tesla are set to report earnings, highlighting the significance of AI technology and semiconductor cycles [1] - Storage giants Samsung and SK Hynix will also release their financial results during this period [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain current interest rates, while the market is watching for potential delays in rate cuts [1] - Key economic data from both the US and China will be released, including US durable goods orders and China's industrial profits [1] Group 3: Geopolitical and Political Events - Geopolitical risks, the selection of the Federal Reserve Chair, and the potential for another government shutdown in the US are expected to continue affecting global risk sentiment [1] - Upcoming events include the EU-India summit, which may announce a trade agreement, and a visit by the UK Prime Minister to China [1]

格隆汇1月24日｜据英国金融时报报，谷歌DeepMind首席执行官Sir Demis警告称，人工智能行业某些领 域的狂热看起来越来越像"泡沫"，同时他认为，谷歌的规模和技术使其能够很好地应对任何潜在的清 算。这位英国诺贝尔奖得主称，科技行业某些领域的投资水平已经脱离了商业现实。"对于还没有产 品、技术或其他任何东西的新创企业来说，数十亿美元的种子轮融资似乎有点不可持续，"他本周在达 沃斯世界经济论坛上表示，并补充说这可能会导致"市场某些部分的调整"。但此前，达沃斯的其他科技 领袖，如英伟达的黄仁勋和微软的纳德拉，都对有关该行业投资过剩的担忧予以驳斥。 ...

据英国金融时报，谷歌DeepMind首席执行官Sir Demis警告称， 人工智能行业某些领域的狂热看起来越 来越像"泡沫"，同时他认为，谷歌的规模和技术使其能够很好地应对任何潜在的清算。这位英国诺贝尔 奖得主称，科技行业某些领域的投资水平已经脱离了商业现实。"对于还没有产品、技术或其他任何东 西的新创企业来说，数十亿美元的 种子轮融资似乎有点不可持续，"他本周在达沃斯世界经济论坛上表 示，并补充说这可能会导致"市场某些部分的调整"。但此前，达沃斯的其他科技领袖，如英伟达的黄仁 勋和微软的纳德拉，都对有关该行业投资过剩的担忧予以驳斥。（格隆汇） ...

Core Insights - Microsoft is encouraging thousands of employees from its most successful teams to learn and use Claude Code for coding, even if they are not developers [1] - Claude Code is gaining popularity among AI coding tools due to its ease of use for both developers and non-technical users, distinguishing itself from competitors like Cursor and GitHub Copilot [2] - Microsoft has expanded the use of Claude Code within its largest engineering teams, further promoting the application of Anthropic's AI model [2] Company Developments - The newly established AI engineering team, CoreAI, led by former Meta engineering head Jay Parikh, has been testing Claude Code [3] - Employees with no programming experience are encouraged to use Claude Code to quickly build prototypes, allowing designers and project managers to participate in the development process [3] - Microsoft has approved the use of Claude Code across all code and code repositories within its business and industry collaboration teams [3]

瑞银将微软目标价从650美元下调至600美元。 ...

（文章来源：中国新闻网） 图片来源：微软社交媒体截图 北京时间23日上午，微软(MSFT)再次发文称：由于我们采取了负载均衡措施，服务可用性和功能正在 持续改善。我们正在积极监控性能并进行有针对性的调整，以进一步提高稳定性和可用性，同时继续采 取恢复措施，确保提供可靠的服务体验。 中新网1月23日电据媒体报道，近日，微软(MSFT)多项服务突然中断，导致用户无法使用Office、 Outlook、Teams等服务。多位用户报告Microsoft Outlook出现问题。此后，微软(MSFT)在社交媒体上发 文称，其支持团队正在调查此次服务中断事件。 ...

法国巴黎银行分析师Stefan Slowinski在给客户的一份报告中写道："我们认为1月的一份面向全球企业的 重要调查结果对软件行业来说是一个警示信号，强化了近期市场对于一些软件股的负面情绪。" "作为对比，那些超级云计算公司继续在企业调查报告中'获胜'，比如微软、亚马逊AWS以及谷歌云的 整体支出得分保持相对韧性，公共云计算需求也在AI应用渗透率扩张的推动下显著增加。SAP和 ServiceNow则因需求改善而显得格外突出。" Slowinski表示。 智通财经APP获悉，法国巴黎银行(BNP PARIBAS)近日发布的一份研报显示，随着AI应用浪潮继续在全 球企业掀起波澜，即便包括微软、谷歌在内的全球最核心超级云计算巨头在人工智能应用领域继续主导 软件市场，该金融机构也认为全球云软件领军者ServiceNow(NOW.US)和SAP(SAP.US)将是全球软件行 业中最具"增长韧性"的公司之一，但是股价前景则将远逊于微软等云巨头。法国巴黎银行对于AI应用与 云计算领军者微软(MSFT.US)继续持有强劲看涨立场，认为微软将是AI应用浪潮的最大受益者之一。 整体而言，法巴银行更加看好大型云计算巨头(比如微 ...

微软在社交媒体上发文称，其支持团队正在调查此次服务中断事件。调查人员将问题归咎于服务基础设 施。微软在美东时间下午6点21分的社交媒体帖子中表示："我们正在重新平衡所有受影响基础设施上的 流量，以确保环境恢复到平衡状态。" 美国东部时间1月22日下午2点40分左右，微软多项服务突然中断，导致用户无法使用Office、Outlook、 Teams等服务。据故障追踪网站DownDetector的数据显示，当天下午3点左右，超过15000名用户报告了 Microsoft365产品使用问题。另有12000名用户报告了Microsoft Outlook问题，500名用户报告了Microsoft Teams问题。 ...