Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that 2026 will be a crucial year for China's economic work, marking the beginning of the "15th Five-Year Plan" and the transition to a period of solid foundation and comprehensive efforts [1] - Analysts from ten major securities firms provide insights on market trends, industry allocations, and major investment opportunities for 2026, aiming to clarify the investment landscape for investors [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities predicts that A-share company profit growth will show a trend of low growth initially followed by a recovery [2] - The market is expected to be influenced by the US-China trade agreement and the US midterm elections, with three phases of market performance anticipated [4] - Key investment themes include global pricing power in manufacturing, the expansion of Chinese companies overseas, the continuation of the tech trend with AI, and the potential recovery of domestic demand [4] Group 3 - CICC highlights that the restructuring of international order and China's industrial innovation will support A-share performance, with a market trend of initial growth followed by stabilization [5] - Analysts suggest focusing on growth sectors such as AI applications, industries benefiting from external demand, and cyclical sectors nearing recovery [7] Group 4 - GF Securities indicates that the A-share market is likely to maintain a "slow bull" pattern, with corporate profit structures undergoing significant changes [8][10] - The expected nominal GDP growth for China in 2026 is projected to reach 6.45%, significantly higher than in 2025, supporting the overall improvement in corporate profits [21] Group 5 - Analysts from various firms suggest that the market will shift from valuation-driven to profit-driven dynamics, with traditional and emerging industries contributing to profit recovery [15][17] - The focus on new production capabilities and the impact of policies like "anti-involution" are expected to improve competition in traditional industries and boost domestic demand [17] Group 6 - Analysts predict that more industries will enter a profit recovery phase in 2026, with nominal economic recovery and price increases being the most evident trends [18][20] - UBS forecasts that A-share company profit growth could rise to 8% due to improved nominal GDP growth and the narrowing of PPI declines [32] Group 7 - Analysts recommend focusing on four main investment themes: technological self-reliance, consumer sector recovery, "anti-involution" related sectors, and the global competitiveness of Chinese companies [34] - The market is expected to maintain a balanced style between growth and value, with cyclical sectors likely to outperform defensive sectors as the economy recovers [34]

Core Viewpoint - The analysis highlights the expected trends and investment opportunities in the A-share market for 2026, emphasizing a shift towards profitability-driven growth amid a recovering economy and evolving global dynamics [1][28]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - 2026 marks the beginning of the "15th Five-Year Plan," focusing on solidifying foundations and comprehensive efforts for economic modernization [1][28]. - The A-share market is anticipated to experience a recovery in corporate profitability, with a projected increase in earnings growth to 8% driven by improved nominal GDP growth and narrowing PPI declines [53][52]. Group 2: Market Phases - The market is expected to be segmented into three phases influenced by U.S.-China trade agreements and U.S. midterm elections, with a potential for sustained growth in a stable external environment [3][30]. - Analysts predict a "slow bull" market pattern, with corporate profitability stabilizing and the return of investment interest from insurance and high-net-worth individuals [7][34]. Group 3: Investment Themes - Key investment themes include: - The manufacturing sector's pursuit of global pricing power, particularly in non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and new energy [3][30]. - The globalization of Chinese enterprises, opening up new market opportunities in machinery, innovative pharmaceuticals, and military industries [3][30]. - Continued growth in the AI sector, with a focus on semiconductors, computing power, and AI applications [3][30]. - Recovery opportunities in domestic demand, particularly in sectors with potential for valuation elasticity [3][30]. Group 4: Sector Focus - Analysts suggest focusing on sectors with clear growth trends, such as AI, where capital expenditure is expected to expand, and cyclical industries like chemicals and renewable energy that may benefit from policy support [5][38]. - The technology sector is projected to maintain high profit growth, although the valuation gap with traditional sectors may pose challenges [40][42]. Group 5: Policy and Market Dynamics - The market is expected to transition from valuation-driven to profitability-driven dynamics, supported by fiscal policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and improving competition in traditional industries [38][40]. - Analysts emphasize the importance of capital market reforms to enhance flexibility and attract long-term investments, particularly in emerging industries [45][48].

作者：许盈、 孙翔峰、 胡飞军、 刘艺文、 马静、 王蕊 2026年是"十五五"规划开局之年，基本实现社会主义现代化这场接力跑，即将进入"夯实基础、全面发力的关键时期"，做好经济工作至关重要。 为更全面展现市场机构对2026年经济形势、政策走向与投资布局的前瞻思考，证券时报·券商中国记者特邀请十家券商首席策略分析师，围绕2026年市场趋势、行业 板块配置思路、重大主题投资机会等发表见解与展望，希望通过十大首席的专业视角，为投资者厘清脉络、把握机遇提供有力参考，共同助力资本市场健康发展和 国家现代化建设。 中信证券裘翔：A股公司盈利增速将呈现前低后高态势 中信证券首席A股策略师裘翔认为，2026年A股公司盈利增速将呈现前低后高态势。 他分析，中美格局决定了行情节奏，行情可能将被中美签署贸易协议和美国中期选举分为三段：第一阶段从当前到中美贸易协议落地前，市场上涨斜率预计放缓； 第二阶段是协议落地到美国中期选举结束，A股有望在稳定的外部环境下迎来持续上涨；第三阶段是美国中期选举结束后，外部扰动的不确定性可能会急剧提高， 投资者需要把视野重心转回国内。 裘翔认为，从主题投资机会和板块配置来看，四大线索值得重视：一是制 ...

Core Insights - The capital market showed a positive trend in 2025, with active trading reflected in the significant increase in transaction volume on the Longhu list, reaching 3.34 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of over 40% [1][2] - The competition among brokerage firms intensified, with notable changes in the rankings of the top 100 brokerage departments, highlighting the emergence of several "dark horse" firms [1][3] Group 1: Market Performance - In 2025, a total of 7,029 brokerage departments appeared on the Longhu list 123,900 times, with a total transaction volume of 3.34 trillion yuan, marking a 42.6% increase year-on-year [2] - The top 100 brokerage departments accounted for 2.26 trillion yuan of the total transaction volume, representing 67.66% of the market share, indicating a strong head effect [2] Group 2: Top Brokerage Departments - The "Lhasa team" under Dongfang Caifu Securities maintained a strong performance, occupying three of the top ten positions, with the Lhasa Tuanjie Road No. 1 Securities Department leading with a transaction volume of 127.87 billion yuan [2] - New entrants to the top ten include Kaiyuan Securities' Xi'an Xidajie Securities Department, which rose from 27th place in 2024 to 3rd in 2025, and several other firms that significantly improved their rankings [2][3] Group 3: Emerging Firms and Foreign Participation - Several "dark horse" brokerage departments made significant leaps in rankings, such as Guotai Junan's Shanghai Jing'an District New Zha Road Securities Department, which rose from 559th to 14th place [3] - The presence of foreign brokerage firms is increasing, with six foreign brokerage departments making it into the top 50, including UBS and Goldman Sachs, showcasing their growing influence in the market [4] Group 4: Industry Trends - The competition in brokerage business has intensified, reflecting differences in client scale, market share, and overall strength among various firms, as well as the strategic focus on regional development by branch offices [5] - The Longhu list serves as an important indicator of market sentiment and hotspots, with sectors like general equipment, chemical products, computer software, automotive, and semiconductors attracting significant investment [6]

关于部分控股股东及其一致行动人 进行质押式回购交易 展期的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 重要内容提示： ● 浙江华康药业股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）部分控股股东及其一致行动人程新平先生、徐小荣先 生和余建明先生分别持有公司16,685,055股、15,691,337股、13,143,335股,分别占总股本的5.51%、 5.18%、4.34%。本次程新平先生、徐小荣先生和余建明先生将各自部分持有股份中的9,000,000股、 9,500,000股、7,000,000股质押给中信证券股份有限公司（以下简称"中信证券"），本次股份质押展期业 务完成后，其质押股份共计25,500,000股，占公司总股本8.41%。 一、上市公司股份质押 证券代码：605077 证券简称：华康股份 公告编号：2025-100 债券代码：111018 债券简称：华康转债 浙江华康药业股份有限公司 公司近日接到部分控股股东及其一致行动人程新平先生、徐小荣先生、余建明先生的通知，获悉上述人 员与中信证券办理了股票质押式回购 ...

中信证券首席A股策略师裘翔认为，2026年A股公司盈利增速将呈现前低后高态势。 裘翔认为，从主题投资机会和板块配置来看，四大线索值得重视：一是制造业争夺全球定价权，资源、 传统制造产业升级，把份额优势转化为定价权和利润率的持续抬升，可关注的重点大类行业包括有色、 化工和新能源；二是中企出海与全球化，大幅打开了市值天花板和利润增长空间，可重点关注大类行业 包括机械、创新药、电力设备、军工；三是科技行情延续，AI（人工智能）进一步拓展商用版图，延 续科技趋势并放大中企相对竞争优势，相关重点大类行业包括：半导体、算力、端侧硬件、AI应用； 四是关注内需的超预期修复机会，内需敞口品种景气度虽然一般，但也潜藏着较大的修复空间和估值弹 性。 （文章来源：证券时报） 他分析，中美格局决定了行情节奏，行情可能将被中美签署贸易协议和美国中期选举分为三段：第一阶 段从当前到中美贸易协议落地前，市场上涨斜率预计放缓；第二阶段是协议落地到美国中期选举结束， A股有望在稳定的外部环境下迎来持续上涨；第三阶段是美国中期选举结束后，外部扰动的不确定性可 能会急剧提高，投资者需要把视野重心转回国内。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that CITIC Securities maintains a solid industry leadership position, with comprehensive strength leading across capital scale, business coverage, and brand influence [3][16][17] - The company leverages the strong resources of its major shareholder, CITIC Group, sharing financial licenses and benefiting from a global industrial layout and client network, creating a "finance + industry" synergy [3][17] - The management team demonstrates top-tier strategic foresight, establishing a development path that balances expansion during economic upturns and building barriers during downturns, maintaining a leading advantage amid industry cyclicality [3][17] Group 2 - The operating performance is steadily improving, with strong profitability and risk control capabilities, as CITIC Securities is the first domestic brokerage to exceed total assets of 2 trillion yuan, showcasing absolute capital strength and efficient capital operation [2][4][17] - A balanced and diversified business structure supports the company's resilience through market cycles, with most main business revenue scales ranking first in the industry, highlighting comprehensive competitive strength [2][4][17] - The company has established a "multi-engine drive" model for performance growth, effectively countering cyclical market risks and providing solid support for sustainable operational development [2][4][17] Group 3 - Key breakthroughs in core areas are evident, with significant progress in wealth management transformation, moving from traditional brokerage to a modern asset allocation platform, gradually building a global asset allocation ecosystem [4][18] - The cross-border investment banking business remains a leader, enhancing international competitiveness and service coverage in areas such as overseas equity financing and cross-border mergers and acquisitions [4][18] - The asset management business is deepening its active management transformation, optimizing asset structure, and accelerating innovative asset management initiatives [4][18] Group 4 - In the context of deepening domestic capital market reforms and tightening regulations, the "Matthew effect" in the securities industry is becoming more pronounced, with leading brokerages expected to continue capturing market share [5][19] - As an industry leader, CITIC Securities not only excels in scale and performance but also continues to make breakthroughs in high-quality development areas such as wealth management and cross-border investment banking, forming sustainable growth momentum [5][19]

Core Insights - The report highlights that the public fund fee reform has concluded, and insurance companies are expected to perform well, indicating potential investment opportunities in the spring market [1][6]. Group 1: Industry Performance - As of December 31, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3968.84 points, up 0.13%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.58% [11]. - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.13 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.30% week-on-week [6]. Group 2: Insurance Sector - Insurance companies are anticipated to maintain high growth in performance, with short-term results expected to exceed expectations and long-term interest rate spreads likely to improve [17]. - The Ministry of Finance released a draft revision of the accounting standards, enhancing the clarity of profit sources for insurance companies and improving comparability across industries [17]. - Key stocks to watch in the insurance sector include China Ping An, China Life, and New China Life, among others [17]. Group 3: Securities Sector - The public fund fee reform is expected to save investors approximately 51 billion yuan annually, with a fee reduction of about 20% [18]. - The reform includes differentiated redemption fee structures aimed at promoting long-term investment and reducing short-term trading behaviors [19]. - The introduction of new REITs regulations is expected to enhance the market's quality and expand opportunities for securities firms [24][28]. Group 4: Valuation and Financial Analysis - China Ping An (601318.SH) has a target price of 85.17 yuan, with an estimated EPS of 8.91 yuan for 2025, reflecting a PE ratio of 7.68 [7]. - New China Life (601336.SH) has a target price of 94.21 yuan, with an estimated EPS of 14.04 yuan for 2025, indicating a PE ratio of 4.96 [7]. - The report suggests that the valuation metrics for various companies in the sector indicate potential upside, with several stocks rated as "Buy" [7].

智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研究报告称，2026年最大的预期差来自于外需与内需的平衡，对 外"征税"、补贴内需应是大势所趋，今年是个重要的开端。站在开年，考虑到去年末的资金热度并不算 高，人心思涨的环境下开年后市场震荡向上的概率更高。中期维度下，建议抱着"赚业绩的钱而不期待 估值的钱"的思维布局。更青睐一些热度和持仓集中度相对较低，但关注度开始提升、催化开始增多且 长期ROE有提升空间的板块，如化工、工程机械、电力设备及新能源等，对高景气、高热度但是股价滞 涨的板块则相对谨慎。同时，一些新的产业题材(如商业航天)可能还会反复演绎，对此也值得持续关 注。 从机构的赚钱效应来看，2025年在过去10年里能排到第三，过去20年里排到第六 中信证券跟踪的样本主动管理型公募基金2025年的收益率中位数为28.2%，在过去10年(2016年以来)表 现第三，仅次于2020年的51.9%和2019年的37.7%，在过去20年以来排名第六。从产品收益率的分化度 来看，2025年收益率前10%分位数为60.8%，后10%分位数为5.4%，两者的差异为55.4个百分点，在过 去10年中位于第二位，仅次于2020年的71.9个 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：中信证券研究 文|裘翔 高玉森 陈泽平 刘春彤 张铭楷 陈峰 从机构的赚钱效应来看，2025年在过去10年里能排到第三，过去20年里排到第六。在一个回头来看巨大 的结构性牛市当中，实际上市场既享受了预期差带来的"估值的钱"，也挣到了"业绩的钱"，预期差来自 于对中国自主科技能力的重估以及中美关系，而结构性的超预期业绩来自复杂贸易环境下外需的韧性以 及AI推理需求爆发，这些因素站在2025年初来看并不是那么理所应当会发生。增量流动性只是预期差 和业绩兑现过程中的结果，或者是用于后验的解释牛市形成的理由，投资者过于高估了增量资金对市场 的影响。因此，我们亦不会将增量资金入市当作是2026年市场上一个新台阶的主要因素。我们认为2026 年最大的预期差来自于外需与内需的平衡，对外"征税"、补贴内需应是大势所趋，今年是个重要的开 端。站在开年，考虑到去年末的资金热度并不算高，人心思涨的环境下开年后市场震荡向上的概率更 高。 从机构的赚钱效应来看， 2025年在过去10年里能排到第三 过去20年里排到第六 我们跟踪的样本主动管理型公募基金20 ...