1月16日，中信证券表示，本公司将于2026年1月19日起，对投资者融资保证金比例做如下调整：对于 2026年1月19日前融资保证金比例低于100%的投资者，其1月19日及以后新开立融资合约适用的融资保 证金比例调整为100%。 经中国证监会批准，沪深北交易所日前发布通知调整融资保证金比例，将投资者融资买入证券时的融资 保证金最低比例从80%提高至100%，相关安排自1月19日起正式施行。 紧随沪深北交易所，这两天，中信证券、中信建投、银河证券等券商也纷纷发布通知：1月19日起，将 两融业务融资保证金比例由80%提升到100%，调整仅限于投资者新开立的合约。 券商集体通知 融资保证金比例从80%提升到100%有何影响？ 此次将融资保证金比例上调至100%，意味着投资者进行融资交易时需要缴纳更多的自有资金作为保证 金。例如，调整前，投资者只需投入80万元保证金，即可融得100万元资金用于证券买入，实际杠杆率 可达1.25倍；调整后，若想融得相同额度的100万元资金，投资者需足额缴纳100万元保证金，杠杆率从 1.25倍回落至1倍。 中国首席经济学家论坛理事陈雳对媒体表示，此次融资保证金比例调整，是监管层基于融资 ...

智通财经APP获悉，中信建投发布研报称，国内航线预订量升温，票价与时段呈现"双高峰"，2026年民 航春运国内市场热度提前释放，截至1月11日，同程旅行数据显示国内机票预订量较2025年同期上涨 8%，元旦假期后预订曲线持续上扬;国际航线搜索量大涨，目的地与票价冰火两重天，区域分化显著;国 内航司整体增长，航司表现差异显著;千万级机场引领，区域表现分化，预计春运期间客运航班起降量 突破百万架次，其中八成机场同比实现增长。 中信建投主要观点如下： 京东航空自有机队扩容提速 京东航空新添"空中运力"，波音+空客赋能全域物流。波音737窄体机(22.7吨业载)加密长三角-西北等国 内枢纽，配合其6.10小时的行业领先利用率，将"次日达"覆盖从核心城市向三四线及特色产区延伸;空客 A330宽体机(61吨业载)则突破洲际运力瓶颈。京东航空机队扩张使京东物流的"干线-仓储-末端"闭环更 具韧性：南通基地承接上海枢纽溢出效应，联动芜湖、深圳等节点，将空运与海外仓、配送网络深度绑 定。 风险分析 人民币汇率大幅贬值风险;国际航线放开速度不及预期;燃油成本大幅度上涨。 行业综述 从交运各子板块相对沪深300的表现来看，周内(1 ...

Industry Trends - The movie industry has identified three major trends over the past 25 years: 1) Animated films have performed exceptionally well, with 4 out of the top 10 box office films being animated, including two record-breaking titles [1] - 2) The trend of derivative layouts is emerging, maximizing the commercial value of IP through a combination of short-term box office and long-term derivatives [1] - 3) The supply of imported films is abundant, becoming a significant contributor during summer and New Year periods [1] Upcoming Releases - For the 2026 Spring Festival, two high-grossing IP sequels, "Fast Life 3" and "Boonie Bears 12," have been scheduled, with major players like Damai, Maoyan, Wanda Film, and China Film expected to announce more significant releases [1] - The strong cast and past box office success of similar films contribute to a positive outlook for the 2026 Spring Festival [1] Box Office Outlook - The company remains optimistic about the performance of imported films in 2026, with anticipated releases of major IP sequels such as "Avengers," "Spider-Man," "Toy Story," and "Minions" expected to be introduced to the domestic market [1] - The smooth introduction of imported films in 2025 and a rich reserve of Hollywood films for 2026 support a positive forecast for domestic box office performance [1] Company Recommendations - The company recommends investing in Damai Entertainment (01060), which is expected to benefit from strong IP business performance and favorable policy changes in the domestic performance sector, as well as from overseas projects [1] - China Film (600977.SH) is also highlighted as a potential beneficiary of the recovery in box office from imported films [1] - Other companies to watch include ticketing leader Maoyan Entertainment (01896), cinema chain leader Wanda Film (002739.SZ), and Shanghai Film (601595.SH), which is expected to benefit from the combination of IP and AI [1]

智通财经APP获悉，中信建投发布研报称，当前汽车板块处于淡季弱势表现，但结构性看反内卷及出海 预期改善，自动驾驶政策催化落地，人形机器人特斯拉V3样机展示惊艳。该行维持前期观点，26年汽 车以旧换新政策支撑内需，商用车或更为受益;结构性看多端侧AI(无人驾驶及机器人)商业化0-1突破带 来估值弹性，关注反内卷下经销商环节周期底部困境反转。 中信建投主要观点如下： 整车板块 景气延续"弱预期、弱现实"，反内卷持续推进，出口预期改善。本周乘联会披露26年1月1-11日国内乘 用车批发及零售销量同比分别-40%、-32%，其中新能源同比分别-30%、-38%，淡季景气承压，但市场 预期或已钝化。1月14日，工信部、发改委、市场监管局三部门召开新能源汽车行业企业座谈会，部署 规范新能源汽车产业竞争秩序相关工作，坚决抵制无序"价格战"，看好后市场经销商新车销售有望盈利 改善。此外，1月12日商务部通报中欧电动汽车案磋商进展，拟向对欧盟出口纯电动汽车的中国出口 商，提供关于价格承诺的通用指导;1月16日正在中国访问的加拿大总理卡尼表示，加拿大将以优惠关税 税率进口4.9万辆中国电动汽车(税率将从100%降至6.1%)。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent proactive cooling measures in the market aim to mitigate potential short-term severe consequences of an overheated market while maintaining a positive long-term outlook [1] Industry Analysis - The proactive cooling does not affect the overall pattern of the year-end market, but it may alleviate previously overheated conditions, leading to changes in trading directions [1] - Key sectors showing significant growth catalysts include AI computing power, non-ferrous metals, innovative pharmaceuticals, and the automotive industry [1] - Previous market hotspots such as commercial aerospace and AI applications may undergo phase adjustments, prompting attention to other thematic areas like ultra-high voltage, brain-computer interfaces, and controllable nuclear fusion [1]

1月19日，金风科技涨5.14%，截至发稿，报28.43元/股，成交137.83亿元，换手率15.99%，总市值 1201.19亿元。 中信建投稳利A（000804）基金经理为杨志武。 截至发稿，杨志武累计任职时间3年48天，现任基金资产总规模4.19亿元，任职期间最佳基金回报 59.22%， 任职期间最差基金回报8.51%。 资料显示，金风科技股份有限公司位于北京市经济技术开发区博兴一路8号,香港铜锣湾礼顿道9-11号合 诚大厦17楼1701室，成立日期2001年3月26日，上市日期2007年12月26日，公司主营业务涉及风力发电 机组开发制造和销售、风电服务、风电场投资与开发、水务业务。主营业务收入构成为：风机及零部件 销售76.58%，风电场开发11.12%，风电服务10.15%，其他2.16%。 从基金十大重仓股角度 数据显示，中信建投基金旗下1只基金重仓金风科技。中信建投稳利A（000804）三季度持有股数1.46万 股，占基金净值比例为0.37%，位居第七大重仓股。根据测算，今日浮盈赚取约2.03万元。 中信建投稳利A（000804）成立日期2014年9月26日，最新规模4846.96万。今年以来 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Kaiyuan Securities expresses optimism about the brokerage sector, highlighting the sustained growth of brokerage performance and the pressure on the funding side, indicating a significant lag in the brokerage sector [1] Group 1: Regulatory Developments - On January 16, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) solicited opinions on the draft of the "Supervision and Management Measures for Derivative Transactions (Trial) (Draft for Comments)" [2] - The policy aims to strengthen the standardized management of the derivatives market, clarifying the CSRC's regulatory scope and emphasizing enhanced monitoring and cross-market regulation [3] - The policy supports the steady development of the derivatives market, encouraging risk management activities and limiting excessive speculation [3] Group 2: Impact on Brokerage Firms - The enhanced transparency in derivatives regulation is expected to benefit the long-term development of brokerage firms' derivatives business, providing a more stable operational framework for brokers and investors [4] - The derivatives business is highly concentrated, with top-tier brokers holding significant advantages; as of November 2023, the market share of the top five firms in swap and OTC options was 66% and 59%, respectively [4] - Top-tier brokers, such as CITIC Securities and Guotai Junan, can directly engage in stock hedging transactions, while secondary brokers are limited in their trading capabilities [4] Group 3: Market Stability and Investment Recommendations - Derivative tools are seen as beneficial for stabilizing market fluctuations, with the potential for relaxed scale restrictions favoring leading brokers [5] - The CSRC's commitment to a robust monitoring system for derivatives trading is expected to facilitate high-quality development in the derivatives business, contributing to market stability [5] - Investment recommendations include top brokers with strong international business and undervalued stocks, such as Huatai Securities and Guotai Junan, as well as firms with significant wealth management advantages like GF Securities [5]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 玉米：中性 1．昨日玉米03最高突破2300元/吨，但整体走势偏弱；CBOT-3月玉米合约收涨2.25美分。 2.1月12日，中储粮吉林分公司共拍卖玉米近3万吨，全部成交，且溢价成交。但1月15日再次拍卖约1.6万吨，成交率大跌，仅有20%。而随即拍卖公告显 示，16日中储粮吉林分公司继续放量投放，数量达7.1万吨。市场的情绪仍待释放，春节前多空讨论有待进一步落地。 3．巴西全国谷物出口商协会（ANEC）称，1月份巴西玉米出口量将达到327万吨，高于一周前预估的285万吨，较去年同期的318.5万吨增长2.7%。 观点总结：玉米03主力观察2250附近的支撑，日内缓步上行区间2300-2330。 豆粕：中性 1． 隔夜CBOT大豆受益于生物燃料政策带来的利好继续反弹，但南美丰产前景仍然限制上方空间； 2．预报显示未来一周南锥体降雨"北多南少"特征突出：巴西中西部普遍迎来强降雨（80毫米以上），巴西南部以及阿根廷核心产区则几乎没有降雨，关注 高温少雨天气对阿根廷大豆生长的潜在影响； 3．短期市场处于"总量宽松但结构性偏紧预期尚存"的状态，美盘成本 ...

Group 1: Copper Market - The main copper futures in Shanghai closed at 10028 yuan, with a minimum intraday price of 99620 yuan, while London copper retreated to around 13155 USD [4][18] - Macro sentiment is neutral to bearish, influenced by Trump's tariff announcement on eight European countries and uncertainty in monetary policy, which has increased risk aversion [5][18] - Global copper inventories increased by 65,700 tons to 955,000 tons, with domestic stocks rising significantly by 36,700 tons to 319,000 tons [5][18] - Short-term copper prices are expected to face downward pressure due to profit-taking, but demand from downstream stocking ahead of the holiday may limit the extent of the decline [5][18] - The reference trading range for today's Shanghai copper futures is set at 99,000 to 102,000 yuan per ton [5][18] Group 2: Nickel and Stainless Steel - Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources announced an adjustment of nickel ore RKAB quotas to 250-260 million tons for 2026, which is expected to support nickel prices in the short term [6][19] - The nickel market currently lacks significant supply-demand contradictions, and the tightening quota expectations have already been priced in [6][19] - The trading range for nickel futures in Shanghai is suggested to be between 130,000 and 150,000 yuan per ton [20] Group 3: Aluminum Market - Market sentiment for aluminum continues to cool, with alumina prices declining; the domestic weighted average price is 2627.6 yuan per ton, down 34.1 yuan from the previous week [21][22] - The production capacity of alumina has rebounded to 96.25 million tons, indicating ongoing oversupply pressure [21][22] - The expected trading range for alumina futures is set at 2500 to 2800 yuan per ton, with a bearish outlook for prices [22][23] Group 4: Zinc Market - Zinc prices showed weak fluctuations, influenced by Trump's tariff announcement and profit-taking from previous positions [24] - Supply-side issues include temporary maintenance at some smelters in Yunnan due to raw material problems, leading to insufficient increases in zinc ingot production [24] - The trading range for zinc futures in Shanghai is suggested to be around 23800 to 25000 yuan per ton [24] Group 5: Lead Market - Lead prices are experiencing weak fluctuations, with supply-side pressures from both primary and secondary sources [25] - The overall market sentiment is weak, with downstream purchasing intentions declining as the traditional off-season approaches [25] - The trading range for lead futures in Shanghai is suggested to be between 16800 and 17800 yuan per ton [25] Group 6: Precious Metals - Precious metals are showing divergent trends, with gold steadily rising while silver has slightly retreated after a strong breakout [27] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Iran, and Trump's tariff announcements are increasing uncertainty, supporting safe-haven buying in precious metals [27] - The suggested trading ranges for precious metals are: gold at 1010-1060 yuan per gram, silver at 21500-23000 yuan per kilogram, platinum at 590-640 yuan per gram, and palladium at 450-490 yuan per gram [27]

Group 1: PX Industry - The PX industry in China saw a month-on-month load decrease of 1.5% to 89.4%, while the Asian industry load decreased by 0.6% to 80.6% [3][15] - Domestic industry load is at a historical high for the same period, with the announced maintenance plans for January to March being weaker than in previous years, and overseas plants planning to increase loads, indicating overall supply is expected to remain ample [3][15] - The demand side is pressured by numerous maintenance plans for downstream PTA facilities in the first quarter, leading to a forecast of a loose supply-demand balance for PX [3][15] - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have eased slightly, which may provide some support for oil prices, but the underlying risks remain, continuing to support the PX market [3][15] - The PX May futures price is expected to follow oil price adjustments, with a support area around 6950-7050 where buying opportunities may be considered [3][15] Group 2: PTA Industry - The PTA industry experienced a month-on-month load decrease of 1.9% to 76.3%, which is at a historically low level for the same period, compounded by numerous maintenance plans in the first quarter [4][16] - The overall atmosphere for new orders is weak, with a continuous decline in operating rates for terminal factories in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions [4][16] - The PTA market is expected to face inventory pressure in the first quarter due to weak terminal demand and potential reductions in polyester production [4][16] - The PTA May futures price is anticipated to follow oil price adjustments, with strong support expected below the 5000 mark [4][16] Group 3: EG Industry - The domestic ethylene glycol (EG) industry saw a month-on-month load increase of 0.5% to 74.4%, with synthetic gas production load increasing by 1.6% to 80.2%, remaining at a historical high [5][17] - Despite high shipping costs and potential reductions in imports due to Middle Eastern maintenance, domestic supply remains ample, leading to overall supply pressure [5][17] - Weak new order performance and declining operating rates in terminal factories are expected to lead to inventory accumulation in January, with February potentially being the peak period for inventory pressure [5][17] Group 4: PF Industry - The direct-spun polyester short fiber load remained stable at 99.1%, supported by low inventory levels, while the industry operating rate remains high [6][18] - Demand is expected to weaken as downstream yarn enterprises enter a cautious purchasing phase due to cash flow pressures, leading to a reduction in production loads [6][18] - The PF March futures price is expected to fluctuate in line with raw material prices, with ongoing pressure from weak terminal demand [6][18] Group 5: PR Industry - The bottle-grade PET industry load decreased by 6.4% to 68.4%, with the industry operating load at a historically low level, and further maintenance plans expected to continue the supply contraction [7][19] - The current period is characterized by a traditional off-season for beverage consumption, limiting production recovery potential in January and February [7][19] - The PR March futures price is expected to fluctuate with raw material prices, with short-term strategies suggesting a preference for PR over PF [7][19] Group 6: Soda Ash Industry - Recent soda ash futures saw a slight decline, with stable spot prices, while market sentiment weakened [8][20] - Soda ash production increased by 22,000 tons to 775,000 tons, leading to increased supply pressure [8][20] - Downstream demand has slightly decreased, with inventory levels rising, indicating a potential for ongoing supply-demand imbalance [8][20] Group 7: Glass Industry - Glass futures experienced a slight increase, with stable spot prices and marginal improvements in the supply-demand balance [10][22] - Recent glass production saw a slight increase, with improved purchasing activity from downstream sectors leading to a decrease in inventory levels [10][22] - The glass market is expected to remain under seasonal demand pressure, with prices anticipated to fluctuate [10][22]