2026 年 01 月 06 日 资产配置报告 研究所： 证券分析师： 林加力 S0350524100005 linjl01@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 许潇琦 S0350525080004 xuxq01@ghzq.com.cn 联系人 ： 刘子路 S0350125080017 liuzl02@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 一级市场项目进展顺利，二级市场收益承压 ——公募 REITs 月报 投资要点： 最近一年走势 相关报告 《2026 年大类资产配置展望：动能切换，增长扩 散*林加力，袁雨琦，许潇琦》——2025-12-18 《2025 年中央经济工作会议解读：实施城乡居民 增收计划，推动投资止跌回稳*林加力，许潇琦》 ——2025-12-12 《公募 REITs 月报：一级市场项目进展顺利，产业 园区板块承压*林加力，许潇琦》——2025-12-04 《公募 REITs 月报：二级市场整体承压，新基建板 块迎结构性行情*林加力，许潇琦》——2025-11-05 《党的二十届四中全会解读与比较：承前启后的关 键布局*林加力，许潇琦》——2025-10-25 国海证券研究所 请 ...

如何看待反弹的持续性 20251207 摘要 美国国家安全战略报告转向战略收缩，放弃全球霸权，聚焦本土和西半 球安全，应对移民、毒品及地区敌对势力，此转变或减少美国在全球范 围内的军事干预。 对华政策重心从全面遏制转向经济竞争，强调通过贸易和关键资源（如 稀土）竞争，避免全面军事对抗，但在台湾问题上保持强硬，以维持亚 太威慑力。 美国调整与盟友关系，推动盟友承担更多防务责任，如北约成员国军费 支出需达到 GDP 的 5%，并敦促日韩等国承担更多军事负担，或将影响 全球军事力量的部署。 中美关系预计在高度竞争中维持相对稳定，短期内经贸合作需求强烈， 尤其在稀土和农产品领域，领导人会晤有望签署框架协议，但 2026 年 美国大选或导致涉台及涉华企业制裁波动。 市场对利好事件反应积极，中央经济工作会议预计将支持 2026 年经济 发展，可能提升市场风险偏好，系统性支持措施和年报预告或推动市场 震荡上行。 新版国家安全战略报告中提到哪些具体变化？ 新版国家安全战略报告中有三个主要变化值得关注。首先，美国整体转向战略 收缩，不再追求全球霸权，而是聚焦本土和西半球安全。其次，对华政策从全 面遏制转向经济竞争，强调通过贸易 ...

Macro and Strategy - The report discusses the ongoing expansion and diversification of public REITs in China, highlighting the inclusion of various asset types and industries, with a projected market size increase of 2.3 to 3.8 trillion yuan, indicating a potential 10-16 times expansion compared to the current scale [7][8][10] - The average dividend yield of public REITs from 2022 to 2025 is 5.73%, which is higher than the average yield of the CSI Dividend Index at 5.52%, showcasing their attractiveness as a stable income asset [8][9] - Public REITs are characterized by a dual return structure comprising dividend income and asset appreciation, with a significant portion of returns coming from dividends over longer investment horizons [9][10] Industry and Company - The Chinese duty-free industry is entering a new cycle, with Hainan's duty-free sales experiencing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 39% from 2011 to 2019, but facing a decline of 37% from peak sales due to various market pressures [17][18] - Recent data indicates a recovery in Hainan's duty-free sales, with year-on-year growth of 3%, 13%, and 27% from September to November 2025, suggesting a positive trend in high-end consumption [18][19] - The report emphasizes the importance of policy support and market dynamics in shaping the future of the duty-free sector, with expectations for continued growth driven by improved consumer confidence and strategic policy enhancements [19][20][21] Automotive Industry - The report highlights the rapid advancements in smart driving technology, with companies like Tesla and Huawei leading the way in achieving Level 4 automation through innovative algorithms and architectures [24][25] - The penetration rate of smart driving technologies is expected to see significant growth, with projections indicating an increase from 11.3% to 26.3% for highway navigation assistance (NOA) by 2025 [25] - The global market for robotaxi services is projected to reach nearly 10 trillion yuan, with companies like Waymo and Apollo at the forefront of commercialization efforts [25][26] Non-Banking Sector - The report outlines the importance of the second pillar of the pension system in China, focusing on the development of enterprise and occupational pensions to address the challenges of an aging population [26][27] - The occupational pension system has achieved full coverage, while enterprise pensions are expanding from state-owned to private enterprises, indicating a shift towards a more diversified pension landscape [27][28] - The investment strategy for pension funds is evolving towards a "barbell" approach, balancing stable income-generating assets with growth-oriented investments in technology and manufacturing sectors [28]

Core Insights - The decline in 10-year government bond yields to 1.6% and the breaking of 2% in 3-year fixed deposit rates by state-owned banks indicate a low-interest-rate environment, prompting a shift in investment strategies towards higher-yielding assets [1][3] - The influx of 1.8 trillion yuan in new household deposits suggests a trend of individuals moving their money to banks, while northbound capital saw a net inflow of 23 billion yuan, indicating institutional interest in high-dividend stocks and long-duration growth assets [1][3] High Dividend Assets - High dividend assets are becoming attractive alternatives to traditional savings, with the CSI Dividend Index offering a yield of 5.16%, significantly higher than the 3-year fixed deposit rate [3] - Stable earnings from leading sectors such as banking, utilities, and telecommunications provide a reliable income stream, supported by government policies encouraging dividends [3] - Public REITs, particularly those focused on affordable housing, offer yields of 3%-4%, providing a flexible and higher return compared to traditional savings [3] Long-Duration Growth Sectors - Long-duration growth assets are expected to benefit significantly from declining interest rates, with 10-year bonds rising 2% and 30-year bonds potentially increasing by 6% with a 0.2% drop in yields [5] - The AI industry is highlighted as a key growth area, with expected annual growth of 30%, making it a prime target for investment as interest rates decline [5] - The current economic environment, characterized by monetary easing, suggests that long-term growth sectors will attract capital as traditional sectors struggle to absorb liquidity [5] Investment Strategy Recommendations - Investors are advised to prioritize high dividend stocks with yields above 5% and a history of consistent dividends over the past five years, or to invest in the CSI Dividend ETF for easier access [7] - For growth assets, it is recommended to limit exposure to 30% of total household assets due to their volatility, with a preference for mutual funds managed by professionals [7] - A balanced approach is suggested, allocating 70% to high dividend assets and 30% to long-duration growth sectors to mitigate risks while capitalizing on potential returns [7]

Core Insights - The public REITs sector has reported its second-quarter performance, revealing mixed results in revenue and distributable amounts across various products [1][2][3]. Revenue Performance - A total of 66 public REITs have disclosed operational data, with 62 having comparable data. Among these, 13 products achieved revenue exceeding 100 million yuan in the second quarter, with only 28 showing a quarter-on-quarter increase [1][2]. - The top revenue-generating product was Ping An Ningbo Transportation REIT, with 535 million yuan, followed by Penghua Shenzhen Energy REIT at 386 million yuan, and CITIC Construction Investment National Power Investment New Energy REIT at 243 million yuan [2]. - Overall, the public REITs sector experienced a quarter-on-quarter revenue decline of 2.6% and 5.8% year-on-year [1][3]. Net Profit Analysis - Most of the 62 products with comparable data reported profitability, with 24 products achieving net profits exceeding 10 million yuan. The highest net profit was recorded by Ping An Ningbo Transportation REIT at 113 million yuan [3][4]. Distributable Amounts - In terms of distributable amounts, 36 products saw an increase quarter-on-quarter, with five products exceeding 100 million yuan in distributable amounts [1][4]. - However, 26 products experienced a decline in distributable amounts, with six products showing a decrease of over 50% [4][5]. Sector Performance Insights - The most stable performances were noted in the affordable housing and consumer sectors, while the energy sector faced significant seasonal fluctuations. The logistics sector showed a mixed performance, and the industrial park sector experienced notable declines [6].

Market Performance - On July 1, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.39%, the Shenzhen Component increased by 0.11%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 0.24%[3] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets approached 1.5 trillion yuan, slightly down from the previous trading day[1] - Over 2,600 stocks rose in the two markets, indicating a structural rotation of market hotspots[1] Sector Highlights - The pharmaceutical sector, particularly innovative drugs, immunotherapy, weight loss drugs, and vitamins, showed strong performance[1] - The semiconductor equipment industry within the technology sector also attracted significant market attention[2] Fund Flows - On July 1, net inflows into the Shanghai Stock Exchange were 5.69 billion yuan, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange saw net inflows of 290 million yuan[4] - The top three sectors for capital inflow were chemical pharmaceuticals, chemical products, and electricity[4] Policy Developments - The National Healthcare Security Administration and the National Health Commission issued measures to support the high-quality development of innovative drugs, enhancing information sharing among healthcare, insurance, and pharmaceuticals[5] - The measures aim to expedite the entry of innovative drugs into designated medical institutions and ensure timely adjustments to drug supplies[5] Economic Indicators - The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI for June rose to 50.4, indicating a return to the expansion zone, up by 2.1 percentage points from May[6] - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission emphasized the development of the new energy vehicle industry and enhancing talent capabilities[7] Industry Trends - The GenAI IaaS market in China is projected to reach 8.74 billion yuan in the second half of 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 165%[8] - The film box office for the first half of 2025 reached 29.231 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 22.91%[9] - Heavy truck wholesale sales in June increased by approximately 29% year-on-year, with total sales around 92,000 units[11] Fund Management - Public REITs have surpassed a total market value of 200 billion yuan since their inception in 2020, following the implementation of new guidelines for registration and settlement[12] - Twelve public funds with over 100 billion yuan in management collectively manage 3.59 trillion yuan, accounting for 80% of the total ETF market[13]

Market Performance - On June 9, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.43%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.65%, and the ChiNext Index gained 1.07%[3] - Market turnover reached 1.31 trillion, an increase of approximately 130 billion compared to the previous trading day[1] Sector Analysis - All sectors except food and beverage saw gains, with pharmaceuticals, military industry, agriculture, and textiles leading the increases[1] - The military and innovative pharmaceuticals sectors have shown significant strength, driven by recent geopolitical events and advancements in clinical research[1] Economic Indicators - In May, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 0.4% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 3.3%[5] - For the first five months of the year, China's total goods trade value reached 17.94 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.5%[6] Investment Trends - In the first week of June, new fund issuance exceeded 31 billion, with equity funds showing a "high volume, low amount" characteristic, totaling only 5.82 billion[11] - Public REITs' total market value surpassed 200 billion for the first time, with the Shanghai Stock Exchange accounting for nearly 70% of this total[12][13]

每经记者｜李蕾 每经编辑｜彭水萍 上周，我国已上市公募REITs的二级市场价格整体呈现震荡上行的趋势。截至5月9日，中证REITs（收盘）指数收于848.41点，环比上涨0.28%；中证REITs全 收益指数收于1062.05点，环比上涨0.39%。各大类资产收益表现由高到低排序依次为：可转债>美股>A 股>黄金>REITs>纯债>原油。 在这其中，保障房、消费基础设施板块REITs表现较优，其中保障房板块交易活跃度最高。 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 基金筒称 | 基金成立日 | 上市 | | 华安百联消费REIT | 2024-07-11 | 2024- | | 工银蒙能清洁能源REIT | 2024-11-28 | 2024- | | 国泰君安临港创新产业园REIT | 2022-09-22 2022- | | | 中金厦门安居保障性租赁住房REIT 2022-08-22 | | 2022- | | 华夏基金华润有巢REIT | 2022-11-18 | 2022- | | 华夏深国际REIT | 2024-06-25 | 2024- | | 华夏北京保障房REIT | 2 ...