证券研究报告 | 宏观点评报告 2025 年 09 月 28 日 政策基调或暂时重回稳增长 ——宏观与大类资产周报 频率：每周 国内方面，1）Q3 价格企稳趋势强化，高频数据显示 9 月传统产业价格重新回 升，受下游需求提振，新能源领域价格回升势头更为明显。2）国内稳增长政 策即将加力，Q4 财政集中发力，但由于 7-8 月经济数据下行过多，完成全年 增长目标仍有压力，预计国庆节后将会出台稳增长相关政策。 海外方面，1）特朗普宣布对重型卡车、厨卫建材、家具、药品加征关税，部 分关税有 232 调查程序作为支撑。2）美国 Q2 实际 GDP 环比折年率上修至 3.8%，经济数据强劲引发降息预期持续降温。 资产方面，1）国内政策基调暂时重回稳增长，或暂时迎来股债双牛。压制融 资成本诉求令利率债或迎来短暂做多窗口，经济回升预期或令权益风格暂时趋 于均衡。2）美国基本面暂无衰退风险，后续降息预期的变化大概率也不会对 市场构成负面影响。一旦 AI 产业高景气度延续就能助力美股继续向上。 货币流动性跟踪（9 月 22 日——9 月 26 日） 流动性复盘： 本周，临近跨季和十一长假，资金面整体延续偏紧。基准利率上行约 1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the industry [2] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the intertwined nature of money and banking, stating that modern banks and credit money emerged simultaneously, with banks generating interest income through money creation and service fees from money circulation [5][10] - It discusses the evolution of financial regulation, highlighting the tightening of financial supervision and the reduction of regulatory arbitrage opportunities, which impacts banks' macro credit creation capabilities [5][11] - The report notes the global dominance of the US dollar as a world currency, while also addressing the potential for the internationalization of the Renminbi amid the declining trust in the dollar [5][11] Summary by Sections Introduction: Money and Banking - The report introduces the concept that studying banks necessitates an understanding of money, and vice versa, establishing a foundation for further exploration of banking and monetary systems [10] Evolution of Money - The report outlines the progression from a barter system to the introduction of physical currency, illustrating how complex transactions necessitated a common medium of exchange [12][14][16] Wealth Accumulation and Banking - It describes the transition from wealth storage in physical forms to the establishment of banks, where trust in goldsmiths led to the creation of deposit certificates and the initial forms of banking [18][21] Modern Banking System - The report details the characteristics of the modern banking system, including the role of central banks, reserve requirements, and the impact of regulatory frameworks on banking operations [29][30]

Company Overview - Full Name: Zhejiang Airo Network Energy Technology Co., Ltd [1] - Abbreviation: Airo Energy [1] - Stock Code: 688717.SH [1] - IPO Application Date: June 30, 2022 [1] - Listing Date: January 3, 2024 [1] - IPO Underwriter: China Merchants Securities [1] - IPO Law Firm: King & Wood Mallesons [1] - IPO Audit Firm: Rongcheng Accounting Firm [1] Disclosure and Evaluation - Disclosure Issues: Required to adjust the prospectus for information disclosure; contradictions in the sponsor's report regarding the distribution model and client disclosures; required to re-disclose major raw material suppliers, technical level, and market position; required to remove redundant disclosures about market position and operational achievements; required to enhance content on "core technology leakage risk"; required to delete "R&D failure risk" and related important commitments [1] - Regulatory Penalties: No deductions [2] - Public Supervision: No deductions [2] Listing Performance - Listing Cycle: Airo Energy's listing cycle is 552 days, shorter than the average of 629.45 days for 2024 A-share companies [3] - Multiple Applications: Not applicable, no deductions [4] - Issuance Costs: Underwriting and sponsorship fees amount to 206.62 million, with a commission rate of 9.28%, higher than the average of 7.71% [4] - First Day Performance: Stock price increased by 57.98% on the first day of listing [5] - Three-Month Performance: Stock price increased by 41.32% compared to the issuance price within three months of listing [7] Financial Metrics - Issuance Price-Earnings Ratio: Airo Energy's issuance P/E ratio is 7.95 times, which is 45.64% of the industry average of 17.42 times [8] - Actual Fundraising Ratio: Expected fundraising of 1.047 billion, actual fundraising of 2.226 billion, with an oversubscription ratio of 112.64% [9] Short-Term Performance - Short-Term Financial Performance: In 2024, the company's operating revenue decreased by 31.30% year-on-year, net profit attributable to the parent decreased by 80.88%, and non-recurring net profit attributable to the parent decreased by 86.39% [10] - Subscription and Underwriting Rates: Abandonment rate is 0.35% [11] Overall Evaluation - Total Score: Airo Energy's IPO project scored 80.5 points, classified as B-level. Negative factors affecting the score include the need for improved disclosure quality, high issuance cost rate, excessive actual fundraising, and declines in revenue and net profit in the first accounting year [11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Hong Kong stock market, particularly in the internet and non-ferrous metal sectors, has shown strong performance and is expected to continue benefiting from long-term upward trends despite potential market volatility [1] - AI remains a key theme in the Hong Kong market, with internet stocks anticipated to be among the biggest beneficiaries [1] - Non-ferrous metals are expected to benefit from both liquidity easing due to interest rate cuts and rising inflation expectations [1] Group 2 - The recommendation is to focus on technology sectors, including AI internet large caps and high-end manufacturing small caps, as well as non-ferrous metals [1] - There is a suggestion to increase allocation to Hong Kong insurance stocks, which have significant market expectation discrepancies, as well as to value strategies such as "turnaround" and high dividend stocks [1] - Some undervalued innovative pharmaceutical stocks are recommended for bottom-up investment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of Hong Kong's internet and non-ferrous metal sectors has been strong, and the recommendation to invest in these sectors remains unchanged. The long-term upward trend is expected to continue despite potential market volatility [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - The market is anticipated to experience increased volatility in the near term, but the long-term upward trend is expected to remain intact [1] - AI continues to be a key theme in the Hong Kong market, with the internet sector expected to be one of the primary beneficiaries [1] Group 2: Sector Recommendations - Non-ferrous metals are benefiting from dual advantages of liquidity easing due to interest rate cuts and rising inflation expectations [1] - It is recommended to focus on technology sectors, including AI internet large caps and small caps in high-end manufacturing, as well as non-ferrous metals [1] - There is a suggestion to increase allocation to Hong Kong insurance stocks with significant market expectation discrepancies, as well as value strategies such as "turnaround" and high dividend stocks [1] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Some undervalued innovative pharmaceutical stocks are identified as potential candidates for bottom-up investment [1]

Group 1 - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange's listing review committee approved the initial public offering (IPO) of Southern Power Grid Digital Grid Research Institute Co., Ltd. (referred to as "Southern Grid Digital"), marking it as the 56th company approved for listing this year [1] - Southern Grid Digital aims to provide comprehensive digital construction solutions for clients in the power energy sector, focusing on building a world-class digital and intelligent innovation platform for power grids [1][2] - The company plans to raise approximately 255.45 million yuan for various projects, including the construction of a spatial intelligent digital twin platform and an advanced power artificial intelligence platform [2] Group 2 - Southern Grid Digital is controlled by Southern Power Grid Digital Group Co., Ltd., which holds 74% of the shares, while the actual controller is the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council [2] - The company has a strong focus on expanding its products and services beyond the power energy sector into areas such as transportation, water supply, gas, public security, and urban construction [1][2] - The underwriting institution for the IPO is China Merchants Securities, which has successfully sponsored four IPO projects this year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Association has recently communicated the evaluation results of securities companies for the 2025 financial "Five Major Articles" initiative, with CITIC Securities ranking first in seven quantitative evaluations [2][3]. Group 1: Evaluation Results - The evaluation period covers the previous year from January 1 to December 31, with 107 participating securities firms submitting data for review [3]. - CITIC Securities led in the underwriting of technology innovation bonds, with an amount of 128.19 billion, followed by CITIC Jiantou, Guotai Junan, CICC, and Huatai Securities [3]. - In terms of financing for technology enterprises, CITIC Securities also ranked first with a financing amount of 27.04 billion, followed by CITIC Jiantou, CICC, Guotai Junan, and Huatai Securities [4]. Group 2: Market Participation - Several firms, including CITIC Securities, CITIC Jiantou, Guotai Junan, and others, have served over 20 technology enterprises, indicating a broad market participation [5]. - For major asset restructuring transactions involving technology enterprises, CITIC Securities again ranked first with a transaction amount of 32.07 billion [5]. Group 3: Green and Private Enterprise Bonds - In the underwriting of green and low-carbon transition bonds, CITIC Securities led with an amount of 16.54 billion, followed by CITIC Jiantou and Guotai Junan [5]. - For private enterprise bonds, the top five underwriters included招商证券, 广发证券, 平安证券, CICC, and Huatai Securities, with amounts ranging from 38.15 billion to 12.57 billion [5]. Group 4: Pension Products - The top five firms in the distribution of personal pension products included 广发证券, 招商证券, 国信证券, 中国银河, and 兴业证券, with amounts ranging from 17.18 million to 11.42 million [6]. Group 5: Evaluation Framework - The evaluation results will be incorporated into the 2025 classification system for securities firms, with a scoring system that emphasizes quantitative indicators [7]. - The evaluation framework includes 14 representative indicators, focusing on contributions and service capabilities in key areas, with technology finance receiving the highest weight [8].

Group 1 - The Beijing Stock Exchange's listing committee approved the IPO of Hangdongguang Communications Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd., marking the 54th company to pass the review this year [1] - Hangdongguang's main business includes the research, production, and sales of passive optical fiber cabling products and related components, operating within the optical communication industry [1][2] - The company plans to issue up to 19.27385 million shares, with a fundraising target of approximately 493.6329 million yuan for various expansion projects and working capital [2] Group 2 - The actual controller of Hangdongguang is Chen Jianwei, who holds significant indirect control over the company through his stakes in Ruifa Trade and Ruichuang Industrial [2] - Chen Jianwei's total indirect shareholding amounts to 45.69%, giving him control over 65.27% of the voting rights, which allows him to influence major company decisions [2] Group 3 - The review meeting raised inquiries regarding the authenticity of the company's operating performance, including the necessity and reasonableness of transactions with AFL, and the reasons behind significant inventory growth [3] - Questions were also posed about the company's R&D expenses, their decreasing trend, and whether the qualifications of core technical personnel align with industry standards [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Merchants Securities International reaffirms Alibaba-W (09988) as the preferred stock in the Chinese internet sector, raising the target price by 25% from HKD 159 to HKD 198, indicating a potential upside of 14% [1] Group 1: Financial Projections - The company has increased its capital expenditure budget due to strong demand, leading to a 3% and 7% upward revision in cloud business revenue forecasts for the fiscal years 2026 and 2027, respectively, with expected year-on-year growth of 27% and 25% [1] - Profit margins are expected to remain stable despite the revenue growth [1] - For the fiscal years 2027 and 2028, revenue and core net profit forecasts have been adjusted upward by no more than 1% due to strong demand and ongoing AI product innovation [1] Group 2: Strategic Outlook - The firm maintains a positive outlook on Alibaba's robust execution capabilities and business synergies, positioning the company as a key beneficiary of AI advancements due to its comprehensive technology and product layout [1] - The rating of "Buy" is maintained based on these favorable conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The successful issuance of short-term corporate bonds by China Merchants Securities Co., Ltd. signifies strong market demand and solidifies the partnership with Shenwan Hongyuan, enhancing their bond market presence [2]. Summary by Sections Bond Issuance Details - The first bond type has an issuance scale of 3.8 billion yuan, a term of 212 days, and a coupon rate of 1.72%, with a subscription multiple of 2.55 times [2]. - The second bond type has an issuance scale of 2.2 billion yuan, a term of 359 days, and a coupon rate of 1.75%, with a subscription multiple of 3.61 times [2]. Company Profile - China Merchants Securities Co., Ltd. is a leading national comprehensive securities company with full licenses in the domestic securities market and an international business development platform [2]. - The company focuses on providing diverse and comprehensive financial products and services to individual, institutional, and corporate clients, as well as engaging in investment and trading activities [2]. Strategic Importance - The successful bond issuance lays a solid foundation for further deepening cooperation between China Merchants Securities and Shenwan Hongyuan, which is significant for the latter's ongoing commitment to the bond market [2].