Core Viewpoint - The report from Zheshang Securities emphasizes the investment opportunities arising from innovations in new categories, products, and channels within the liquor industry, with a short-term focus on new consumer products and a long-term focus on sales validation and product iteration, particularly recommending Zhenjiu Lidu (06979) which has a standout product "Dazhen" [1] Group 1: New Consumption Concept - New consumption in the liquor sector refers to products that emphasize innovation in product, channel, and model, with examples including: 1) Product innovation: sparkling yellow wine, tea beer, Meijian, and low-alcohol products from leading liquor companies [2] - Model innovation examples include Dazhen, Jiugui·Ziyouai, Xinbah, and Niushi Beer [2] Group 2: Investment Logic - Unlike traditional consumer goods that focus on immediate performance and recent growth, new consumption liquor stocks are expected to incorporate measurable future performance into current expectations, with significant investment opportunities arising from short-term catalysts, mid-term performance realization, and long-term growth potential [3] - A comparative analysis of stock prices for traditional liquor consumption (e.g., Kweichow Moutai), new consumption (e.g., Huadiao Mountain), and leading new consumption (e.g., Pop Mart) reveals that Moutai's price fluctuations are influenced by multiple cycles rather than single products or channels [3] - Huadiao Mountain's recent stock price surge is attributed to price increases and market anticipation of future high-end positioning and channel changes, necessitating ongoing performance realization [3] - Pop Mart's stock price increase is driven by the success of its flagship product labubu, with continuous performance realization and upward revisions of profit forecasts [3] Group 3: Case Studies - Huadiao Mountain is focusing on brand rejuvenation and premiumization, aligning with consumer trends towards upgrading consumption [4] - Bairun Co. is leveraging a dual-driven model of "pre-mixed drinks + whiskey" to establish quality standards and brand recognition in the domestic whiskey market [4] - Zhenjiu Lidu launched the strategic flagship product "Dazhen" in June 2025, aiming for a mid-term target of 6 billion yuan, supported by team capabilities and three major innovations [4] - Jiugui Liquor partnered with Pang Donglai to launch "Jiugui Liquor·Ziyouai," which sold out after multiple restocks, reflecting innovative channel strategies and consumer trends [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Zheshang Securities emphasizes the investment opportunities arising from innovations in new categories, products, and channels within the liquor industry, particularly highlighting the phenomenon-level product "Dazhen" from Zhenjiu Lidu [1] Group 1: New Consumption Concept - New consumption in the liquor sector focuses on product, channel, and model innovations, with representative products including sparkling yellow wine, tea beer, and low-alcohol white liquor products [1] - Innovations in models include products like Dazhen, Jiugui's "Free Love," and others, indicating a shift towards more diverse offerings in the market [1] Group 2: Investment Logic - Unlike traditional consumer goods, new consumption liquor stocks are expected to reflect future performance directly, with significant investment opportunities arising from short-term catalysts, mid-term performance realization, and long-term growth potential [2] - A comparative analysis of stock prices for traditional and new consumption liquor brands shows that price movements for Kweichow Moutai are influenced by multiple cycles, while stocks like Huadiao Mountain and Pop Mart have seen price increases due to market expectations and product performance [2] Group 3: Case Studies - Huadiao Mountain is focusing on brand rejuvenation and price increases to align with consumer trends, positioning itself as a leader in the yellow wine sector [3] - Bairun Co. is leveraging a dual-driven model of "pre-mixed liquor + whiskey" to establish a new growth area in the domestic liquor market [3] - Zhenjiu Lidu aims to achieve a mid-term target of 6 billion yuan through the launch of "Dazhen" and an innovative business model [3] - Jiugui Liquor's collaboration with Pang Donglai has resulted in strong sales, driven by innovative channel strategies and consumer trends [3]

Group 1 - The "2025 Enterprise Cooperation Development Annual Conference" was inaugurated on the Mediterranean flagship cruise ship "Mediterranean Glory" on August 31, where renowned Chinese investor Lin Yuan praised Da Zhen·Zhen Jiu and Bull Market Beer [1] - Lin Yuan, a prominent figure in China's investment community, started with 8,000 yuan in the stock market in 1989 and has since built a fortune of over 10 billion yuan, becoming a significant shareholder in Moutai and managing funds exceeding 30 billion yuan, earning the title "China's Buffett" [3] - Da Zhen·Zhen Jiu, a strategic new product launched by Zhen Jiu Li Du Group in June, is crafted from over 200 premium base spirits and aged for 20 years, priced at 600 yuan, offering high quality at a competitive price compared to products priced at 3,000 yuan, and has become a phenomenon in the industry since its launch [5] Group 2 - Bull Market Beer, the first craft beer product from Zhen Jiu Li Du Group, received Lin Yuan's endorsement as well; it took three years to develop and is made from top-quality ingredients with a brand philosophy of "Bull Market Opens, Good Luck Comes," promoting a new lifestyle of "Enjoying Life" [6] - Since its release on August 8, Bull Market Beer has ranked among the top-selling beers on platforms like Tmall and JD, becoming one of the hottest beer brands currently [6]

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年8月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 珍酒李渡集團有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年9月1日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 06979 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 25,000,000,000 | USD | | 0.000002 | USD | | 50,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | | USD | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 25,000,000,000 | USD | | 0.000002 | USD | | 50,000 | 本月底法定/註冊 ...

Company Overview - On August 26, the company held a semi-annual performance briefing where the chairman shared the "Wanshang Alliance" plan and interacted with investors [1] - In the first half of 2025, the company's revenue decreased by 44.8% year-on-year, primarily due to adjustments in its flagship products, with expectations of slight declines in the high-end liquor division and old products [1] - The company aims to maintain a clearance strategy in the second half of the year, with overall inventory expected to remain low [1] Product and Market Strategy - The newly launched "Dazhen" product has significantly contributed to growth, with over 50 "Wanshang Alliance" meetings held and more than 2000 distributors signed since its launch on June 17 [2] - The company anticipates signing around 3000 distributors by the end of the year, which is expected to be a core growth driver for the second half [2] - The flat model of "Dazhen" is believed to have strong penetration potential, which could enhance the number of alliance merchants and ensure stable, sustainable profits [2] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company expects a narrowing of revenue decline in the second half of 2025, with absolute revenue potentially decreasing slightly [2] - The gross profit margin is projected to remain stable or slightly increase, while the management expense ratio is expected to rise due to reverse scale effects [2] - The adjusted net profit forecast for 2025 has been lowered by 8.3% to 1.1 billion HKD, while the 2026 forecast has been raised by 5.4% to 1.44 billion HKD [2] - The target price has been increased by 27% to 11.2 HKD, reflecting a 31x/24x P/E ratio for 2025/26 adjusted net profit, with a potential upside of 16.8% from the current price [2]

Industry Dynamics - From January to July, the beverage and refined tea manufacturing industry achieved revenue of 934.71 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.8% [4] - In Jiangsu Province, the production of liquor from large-scale enterprises was 93,500 kiloliters, a year-on-year decrease of 17.0% [4] - The city of Renhuai has implemented a trial management method for core production area certification and coding for Chinese sauce-flavored liquor [4] Event Announcements - The 114th National Sugar and Wine Fair will be held from March 26 to 28, 2026, in Chengdu, aiming to broaden the range of exhibits and better connect the industry chain [5] Company Developments - Three new Moutai cultural experience centers opened in Urumqi and Zhengzhou, integrating local cultural elements into their design [7] - Wuliangye launched a new low-alcohol product, 29° Wuliangye, targeting younger consumers, with pre-sales available on multiple platforms [7] - Several liquor companies, including Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao, are actively developing low-alcohol products as a strategy to attract younger consumers [7] Financial Performance - Wuliangye reported a revenue of 52.771 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.19% [8] - Shanxi Fenjiu achieved a revenue of 23.964 billion yuan, up 5.35% year-on-year [8] - Jinzhongzi Liquor reported a revenue of 0.484 billion yuan, a decline of 27.47% year-on-year [8] - Other companies, including Yingjia Gongjiu and Jinsiyuan, also reported declines in revenue for the first half of 2025 [8][9] Technological Advancements - Five liquor companies were included in the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's 5G factory list, indicating advancements in smart manufacturing [10]

Core Viewpoint - Zhenjiu Lidu (06979) has seen a stock price increase of over 7%, currently trading at 10.22 HKD with a transaction volume of 214 million HKD, despite a significant decline in mid-year performance metrics [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of the year, the company reported revenue of 2.5 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 39.6% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 570 million RMB, down 23.5% year-on-year [1] Market Outlook - Dongwu Securities indicates that the company's product matrix is clear, and the long-term brand and quality upgrade strategy is expected to gradually show organizational efficiency and channel potential [1] - It is anticipated that the decline in the second half of the year will narrow significantly, supported by the recovery in demand and the expansion of the Dazhen market [1] Industry Context - According to ShenGang Securities, the white liquor sector is currently facing limited fundamental catalysts, and the performance pressure from mid-year results has been released [1] - The second half of the year may benefit from a low base in the industry and the diminishing marginal effects of restaurant consumption policies, making the performance in Q3 and Q4 worth monitoring [1] - The overall market recovery suggests that undervalued cyclical sectors may gradually attract market attention, with recommendations to identify investment targets in the white liquor sector based on channel clearance, regional optimization, scenario engagement, and increased dividend rates [1]

Group 1 - The stock of Zhenjiu Lidu (06979) has increased by over 7%, currently trading at 10.22 HKD with a transaction volume of 214 million HKD [1] - Zhenjiu Lidu reported a revenue of 2.5 billion CNY for the first half of the year, a year-on-year decline of 39.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 570 million CNY, down 23.5% year-on-year [1] - Dongwu Securities noted that the company has a clear product matrix and long-term plans for brand and quality upgrades, with expectations for improved organizational efficiency and channel momentum [1] Group 2 - Shengan Securities highlighted that the white liquor sector has faced limited fundamental catalysts recently, and the performance in the second half of the year will depend on sales during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day [1] - There is an expectation for improved performance in the second half of the year due to a low base from the previous year and diminishing marginal effects of restaurant consumption policies [1] - The white liquor sector is suggested to be explored from perspectives such as channel clearance, regional optimization, scenario engagement, and increased dividend rates [1]

Core Insights - The "Wanshang Alliance" model addresses four major channel pain points: price chaos, high pressure on distributors' funds, profit dilution, and high inventory levels, potentially becoming the company's third growth curve [1] - The Dazhen product will play a strategic role in the product matrix, targeting the 600 yuan price range, aiming to capture both consumption upgrade and downgrade demands, while avoiding direct competition with ultra-high-end products [2] - The company aims to create a natural demand for products through consumer cultivation and atmosphere building, transforming group buyers into hybrid distributors, thus rapidly expanding sales volume [3] Financial Projections - The company expects revenues of 5.666 billion yuan and 6.074 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with a year-on-year decline of 19.8% in 2025 and a growth of 7.2% in 2026 [3] - Non-IFRS adjusted net profits are projected to be 1.312 billion yuan and 1.443 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 21.7% in 2025 and an increase of 10.0% in 2026 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Green Tea Group reported a strong performance in the first half of 2025, with revenue and profit growth driven by an increase in takeout business and store expansion [2][4]. Financial Performance - Green Tea's revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 2.29 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 23.1% [2][6]. - The adjusted net profit was 251 million RMB, reflecting a 40.4% increase compared to the previous year [2][6]. - Takeout revenue amounted to 524 million RMB, a significant increase of 74.2% from 300 million RMB in the same period last year, contributing to 22.9% of total revenue [4][6]. Operational Challenges - Despite revenue growth, the company faced challenges such as declining same-store sales and slower-than-expected expansion [4][8]. - Same-store average daily sales decreased from 23,100 RMB in June 2024 to 20,000 RMB in June 2025, with the largest decline in North China at 15.9% [8][9]. - The overall average consumer spending dropped from 61.8 RMB in 2023 to 55.5 RMB in 2025 [9]. Expansion Strategy - Green Tea plans to continue its expansion strategy, aiming to open 150, 200, and 213 new restaurants in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, targeting a total of over 1,000 stores by 2027 [10][11]. - The company has focused on smaller restaurant formats, which have shown higher turnover rates and lower operating costs, with the number of small restaurants increasing from 100 in 2022 to 284 in 2024 [7][10]. Store Count and Market Presence - As of June 30, 2025, Green Tea operated 502 stores nationwide, with over half located in first-tier and new first-tier cities [6][7]. - The company only added 37 new stores in the first half of 2025, achieving only 24.7% of its annual target, indicating a slower expansion pace than anticipated [11][12].