在国补效应逐渐减弱、传统电商流量见顶的大背景下，京东试图用高频的外卖业务来带动整个平台活跃度。为了这场仗，刘强东亲自下场送外卖、站台卖 酒。 文 | 啸 天 京东集团交出了三季度财报。 数据显示，京东三季度实现营收2991亿元，同比增长14.9%，延续了2024年四季度以来连续四个季度的双位数增长态势。然而，这份亮眼成绩单背后，却 潜藏着巨大的隐忧。 深层焦虑可能来自"国补"政策的退坡。过去一年，"国补"为京东优势的电子产品类提供了强劲的增长动力。但随着政策效应边际递减，京东亟需找到新增 长引擎来填补空缺。 尤其是大举进军的"新业务"板块。新业务板块的营收同比暴涨213.7%至155.92亿元，但经营亏损却达到创纪录的157.36亿元。将时间线拉长至今年前九个 月，京东新业务累计亏损已达318.4亿元。一换算，刘强东每天醒来，就要亏掉1.16亿元。 在国补政策效应逐渐减弱、传统电商流量见顶的大背景下，京东试图用高频的外卖业务来带动整个平台的活跃度。为了这场仗，刘强东不惜亲自下场送外 卖、站台卖酒。 然而，巨额投入目前仍未换来回报。在这场关乎京东未来的押注中，刘强东是否正将这家互联网巨头推向未知的深渊？ 外卖" ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the top short-selling stocks in the market, with AIA Group (81299), Anta Sports (82020), and BYD Company (81211) having the highest short-selling ratios at 100.00%, 100.00%, and 95.88% respectively [1][2] - Alibaba (09988), Tencent Holdings (00700), and Baidu (09888) lead in short-selling amounts, with figures of 2.789 billion, 2.349 billion, and 1.317 billion respectively [1][2] - Geely Automobile (80175), BYD Company (81211), and Baidu (89888) show the highest deviation values, indicating significant short-selling activity compared to their historical averages, at 48.97%, 42.86%, and 38.49% respectively [1][2] Short-Selling Ratio Rankings - AIA Group (81299) and Anta Sports (82020) both have a short-selling ratio of 100.00%, with short-selling amounts of 437,700 and 225,700 respectively [2] - BYD Company (81211) has a short-selling ratio of 95.88% with a short-selling amount of 1,290,900 [2] - Lenovo Group (80992) and Tencent Holdings (00700) follow with short-selling ratios of 92.80% and 89.69% respectively [2] Short-Selling Amount Rankings - Alibaba (09988) leads with a short-selling amount of 2.789 billion, followed by Tencent Holdings (00700) at 2.349 billion and Baidu (09888) at 1.317 billion [2] - Other notable mentions include XPeng Motors (09868) with 1.069 billion and JD.com (09618) with 913 million [2] Deviation Value Rankings - Geely Automobile (80175) has the highest deviation value at 48.97%, indicating a significant difference from its historical short-selling average [2] - BYD Company (81211) and Baidu (89888) also show high deviation values of 42.86% and 38.49% respectively [2] - AIA Group (81299) has a deviation value of 37.15%, reflecting its current short-selling activity compared to past averages [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent "Double Eleven" shopping festival has highlighted ongoing issues of competition and regulatory scrutiny in the e-commerce sector, particularly regarding the "choose one" behavior among platforms, which may soon be addressed by new regulatory guidelines from the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) [1][3]. Group 1: Regulatory Developments - On November 15, SAMR released a draft of the "Antitrust Compliance Guidelines for Internet Platforms," which aims to provide clear behavioral guidelines for platform operators and address new types of monopolistic risks in the industry [1][3][4]. - The guidelines consist of five chapters and 38 articles, focusing on four basic principles for antitrust compliance management and detailing eight specific risk examples related to monopolistic behavior [1][4]. Group 2: E-commerce Competition Issues - During the "Double Eleven" period, JD.com reportedly imposed price constraints on merchants, requiring them to maintain minimum prices on its platform and restricting promotional activities on competing platforms like Douyin [2][3]. - JD.com has faced accusations of enforcing "choose one" practices, which have led to public outcry and scrutiny, particularly after reports of significant fines imposed on brands like Midea [2][3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Implications - The ongoing conflict between platforms and merchants reflects a broader struggle for market dominance, with JD.com previously accusing competitors of similar "choose one" practices [3]. - The SAMR's response to these issues indicates a commitment to maintaining fair competition in the platform economy, which is crucial for protecting consumer rights and ensuring a healthy market environment [3][4].

Market Overview - The market is expected to enter a wide-ranging fluctuation phase in the short term, according to institutions [1][12]. Financial Market Performance - On the last trading day, U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones down 0.65%, the Nasdaq up 0.13%, and the S&P 500 slightly down by 0.05% [4]. - Notable tech stocks showed varied performance, with Nvidia and Oracle rebounding by 1.7% and 2.4% respectively, while Meta, Apple, and Google experienced slight declines [4]. - Micron Technology's stock rose by 4.2% as Morgan Stanley raised its target price from $220 to $325 due to expected benefits from DRAM supply shortages [4]. Commodity Prices - International oil prices rebounded, with WTI crude oil increasing by 2.39% to $60.09 per barrel and Brent crude oil rising by 2.19% to $64.39 per barrel [5]. - International gold prices fell, with COMEX gold futures for November delivery dropping by 2.37% to $4087.60 per ounce [6]. Policy and Regulatory Developments - The State Council of China held a meeting to enhance the adaptability of supply and demand in consumer goods, aiming to release consumption potential and promote economic circulation [7]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized the importance of the "14th Five-Year Plan" period for building a resilient and robust capital market [8]. - The Ministry of Commerce and other departments issued a notice to strengthen management of second-hand car exports, imposing stricter controls on new cars exported as second-hand vehicles [10]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation released a draft guideline for antitrust compliance in internet platforms, addressing new monopoly risks [11]. Corporate Developments - Huawei is set to release breakthrough technology in the AI field, potentially addressing efficiency issues in computing resource utilization [12]. - Apple CEO Tim Cook is rumored to possibly resign next year [12]. - Various companies, including Rongbai Technology and Fudan Microelectronics, are undergoing significant corporate changes, such as partnerships and share transfers [12].

Core Viewpoint - The financial markets are experiencing volatility due to mixed signals from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate policies, geopolitical tensions, and sector-specific performance in both U.S. and international markets [3][4][11]. Market Performance - U.S. stock indices showed mixed results with the Dow Jones down 0.65%, S&P 500 down 0.05%, and Nasdaq up 0.13% [4][8]. - European indices faced declines, with Germany's DAX30 down 0.69%, UK's FTSE 100 down 1.11%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.85% [4][8]. - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell 1.85%, closing at 26,572.46 points, with significant declines in technology stocks [5][8]. - A-shares also declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.97%, closing below 4,000 points [6][9]. Commodity Prices - WTI crude oil prices rose by 2.13%, closing at $59.82 per barrel, while Brent crude increased by 0.22% to $63.95 per barrel [4][8]. - Gold prices fell by 2.2%, ending at $4,079.58 per ounce, and silver dropped by 3.4% to $50.56 per ounce [8][9]. Federal Reserve Signals - Federal Reserve officials, including Logan and Schmidt, issued strong hawkish signals, indicating that further rate cuts may not be appropriate at this time [11]. - The market is reacting to these signals, with expectations of interest rate stability impacting various asset classes [11]. Corporate Developments - Berkshire Hathaway disclosed a rare technology stock position, having built a stake in Alphabet, Google's parent company, during Q3 [11]. - Huawei is expected to announce breakthrough technologies in the AI sector, which could enhance computational resource efficiency [17].

Core Viewpoint - The delivery services of several express companies in the Chengdu New District have been suspended, causing significant inconvenience for residents during the peak shopping period of "Double 11" [2][4]. Group 1: Delivery Issues - Residents in the New Chuan District reported that multiple express companies, including Zhongtong, Yuantong, Shentong, and Yunda, indicated that their locations were "undeliverable" due to reasons such as "address cannot be delivered" and "the order's delivery area cannot be dispatched" [2][3]. - The situation is affecting several residential complexes, with reports confirming that 2-5 express companies are showing "undeliverable" status for each complex [3]. Group 2: Reasons for Delivery Suspension - The primary reasons for the suspension of delivery services include the lack of delivery points in the area and a high volume of complaints from residents regarding lost or damaged packages [4][6]. - Many residential complexes lack dedicated express delivery stations, leading to a significant increase in delivery volume, with some complexes experiencing over 1,000 packages daily during "Double 11" [6]. - Complaints from residents about delivery issues have increased, prompting express companies to halt services due to operational inefficiencies and rising costs [6]. Group 3: Solutions Being Implemented - Community staff have reported that measures are being taken to address the delivery issues, including converting parts of property management offices into temporary pick-up points for packages [7]. - New temporary storage solutions, such as delivery cabinets and designated areas for package storage, are being established to facilitate the collection of packages by residents [7]. - Plans are in place to develop a neighborhood center that will integrate various services, including express delivery, to improve logistics in the area [7].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a favorable investment rating to the Chinese internet sector, highlighting its attractiveness compared to U.S. tech stocks due to lower valuations and promising earnings growth [1][2]. Core Insights - The Chinese internet stocks have risen due to improved sentiment, catch-up effects, and relatively low valuations, with a projected PE ratio of 17 times for 2025, significantly lower than the 31 times for U.S. tech stocks [1][2]. - The consumption market in China is experiencing significant emotional consumption growth, with online retail growth at 6.3%, surpassing offline growth of 3.7% [1][4]. - AI technology is being widely applied across various sectors, including e-commerce recommendations, game design, and education, with companies like Alibaba leveraging AI to enhance cloud services and user engagement [5][18]. Summary by Sections 1. Overall Performance of the Internet Industry - The Chinese internet sector has seen a stock price increase of approximately 37% from the beginning of 2025, despite a 19% decline in profit expectations due to pressures from e-commerce and retail investments [2]. 2. Changes in the Consumption Market - Emotional consumption has become a highlight, particularly in gaming, music, and tourism, with a notable increase in online retail driven by algorithm optimization and a growing number of online shoppers [3][4]. 3. AI Development in China - China is advancing in AI through self-developed chips and local GPU efficiency, with Alibaba Cloud experiencing a growth increase from 18% to 26% in recent quarters [5]. 4. Development of Instant Retail - Instant retail has emerged as a significant trend, with companies like JD and Alibaba increasing their investments in food delivery, although growth rates have slowed due to seasonal factors and regulatory influences [6]. 5. Competition in the Food Delivery Sector - The food delivery market is highly competitive, with low-price strategies affecting user experience and merchant profits, while machine retail is accelerating the shift from offline to online [7]. 6. Regulatory Changes in Platform Economy - The government has implemented new policies to encourage healthy competition and protect small businesses, resulting in a more manageable regulatory environment for internet companies [8]. 7. Policy Environment for the Gaming Industry - The gaming industry has seen a positive shift in policy, with a significant increase in the issuance of new game licenses and recognition of efforts to protect minors [9]. 8. Future Focus of the Gaming Industry - The gaming sector should focus on evergreen games and the launch of new titles, with major companies expected to continue leveraging their IPs for sustained performance [10]. 9. Recent Changes in Long Video Industry Regulations - New measures from the broadcasting authority aim to enhance content supply in the long video sector, which could increase user subscriptions [11]. 10. Impact of New Advertising Regulations - The new advertising tax policy may increase marketing costs for certain industries, posing a potential downside risk for the advertising sector [12]. 11. Current Status and Future of the Education Sector - The education market remains robust despite economic challenges, with a significant demand-supply gap expected to drive long-term growth [13]. 12. Opportunities for Chinese Internet Companies Overseas - Chinese online games have a competitive edge due to lower development costs and a large talent pool, enabling them to expand internationally [14][15]. 13. Recent Developments in Cross-Border E-commerce - Cross-border e-commerce GMV has stabilized and shows signs of recovery, driven by innovative business models and improved logistics efficiency [16]. 14. Impact of ChatGPT on E-commerce - The introduction of ChatGPT's e-commerce features may have limited impact on China's e-commerce landscape, as major platforms already dominate traffic [17]. 15. Growth Potential and Competition in the Domestic Gaming Industry - The domestic gaming industry is expected to grow at around 5% in the coming years, with AI playing a crucial role in game development and player interaction [18][19].

Summary of JD.com's Earnings Call Company Overview - **Company**: JD.com - **Quarter**: Q3 2025 - **Key Metrics**: - Total revenue: 299.9 billion RMB, up 15% year-over-year - Active customers: Over 700 million, with a 40% increase in shopping frequency year-over-year - Non-GAAP net profit: 5.8 billion RMB Core Business Performance - **Retail Revenue**: Increased by 11% year-over-year to 251 billion RMB [2][6] - **Comprehensive Product Categories**: Achieved a 19% year-over-year revenue growth, with supermarkets, fashion, and health categories maintaining double-digit growth [2][6] - **Advertising Revenue**: Grew over 20%, indicating strong momentum [2][6] New Business Developments - **Food Delivery Business**: Daily active users saw double-digit growth quarter-over-quarter, with losses narrowing [2][7] - **International Retail**: Gradually establishing capabilities in Europe, including the UK, France, Germany, and Eastern Europe [2][7] Technology and AI Initiatives - **AI Roadmap**: Launched at the JD Discovery Conference, introducing products like the digital assistant TA and AI agent Join Inside [2][8] - **Retail Technology Infrastructure**: Upgraded to serve over 40,000 brands, reducing costs and enhancing sales performance [2][9] Logistics Performance - **Logistics Revenue**: Increased by 24% year-over-year, but non-GAAP operating income fell by 39% to 1.3 billion RMB due to continued investments in customer experience and service capabilities [2][12] Profitability and Margins - **Gross Margin**: Increased by 1.3 percentage points to 19.3%, driven by a shift towards higher-margin businesses and optimized procurement costs [2][11] - **Operating Profit Margin**: Rose by 76 basis points to 5.9% [2][11] Future Outlook - **Strategic Focus**: JD.com aims to enhance supply chain capabilities and operational efficiency across all business lines, including food delivery and international expansion [2][10] - **Sustainable Growth**: Plans to maintain long-term profitability while optimizing the ecosystem for deeper synergies [2][22] User Engagement and Merchant Activity - **Active Customers**: Over 700 million, with a significant increase in shopping frequency [2][4] - **Merchant Growth**: Active merchants increased by over 200%, contributing to a 24% growth in commission and advertising revenue [2][23][24] Investment Strategy - **Future Investments**: Focused on supply chain capabilities, including food delivery and international business, to enhance performance and service [2][28] - **Long-term Goals**: Maintain unit digital profit margins while expanding the overall business ecosystem [2][28] Conclusion JD.com demonstrated robust growth in Q3 2025, driven by strong performance in core retail and new business segments, alongside significant investments in technology and logistics. The company is well-positioned for sustainable growth through strategic investments and operational enhancements.

Group 1 - The company achieved a revenue of 299.1 billion yuan in the latest quarter, representing a year-on-year growth of 15% [1] - JD Retail revenue reached 250.6 billion yuan, up 11% year-on-year, driven by accelerated growth in daily necessities and marketing revenue [1] - The number of active users on the platform exceeded 700 million in October, with over 40% growth in both active user count and shopping frequency [1] Group 2 - Non-GAAP net profit was 5.8 billion yuan, with a non-GAAP net profit margin of 1.9%, a decrease of 3.2 percentage points compared to the same period last year [2] - Retail operating profit margin improved from 5.2% to 5.9% year-on-year, attributed to an increase in gross margin and a slight decrease in marketing expenses [2] - The company repurchased 1.5 billion USD worth of shares in the first three quarters of 2025, accounting for 2.8% of the total outstanding shares as of December 31, 2024 [2] Group 3 - The company maintains an "outperform the market" rating, with revenue projections for 2025-2027 adjusted to 1,334.9 billion, 1,433.4 billion, and 1,558.7 billion yuan respectively [2] - Adjusted net profits for 2025-2027 are projected to be 30 billion, 41.5 billion, and 57.4 billion yuan respectively, with slight upward adjustments [2] - The company is expected to optimize supply chain efficiency and improve gross margins, enhancing user experience [2]

Core Viewpoint - In Q3 2025, JD.com achieved revenue of 299.06 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 14.85%, with Non-GAAP net profit of 5.80 billion RMB, a decrease of 56.0% year-on-year, resulting in a net profit margin of 1.94%, down from 5.06% in the same period last year. Revenue growth exceeded Bloomberg consensus expectations, while the decline in net profit was better than expected [1] Revenue and Profit Analysis - JD.com's Q3 revenue reached 2990.59 billion RMB, with 1P revenue at 2260.92 billion RMB (up 10.50% YoY) and 3P revenue at 729.67 billion RMB (up 30.83% YoY). The 1P business saw a 4.92% increase in electronics and home appliances revenue, while general merchandise revenue grew by 18.83%. The 3P business experienced a 23.72% increase in commission and advertising revenue, and a 35.04% increase in logistics service revenue [1] - JD Retail achieved revenue of 2505.77 billion RMB in Q3, a year-on-year increase of 11.4%, with adjusted operating profit of 148.28 billion RMB, corresponding to a profit margin of 5.92%, up from 5.16% in the previous year [1] Logistics and New Business Performance - The logistics segment generated revenue of 55.08 billion RMB in Q3, a year-on-year increase of 24.1%, with adjusted operating profit of 1.28 billion RMB and a profit margin of 2.3%, showing a slight decline [2] - JD's new business revenue reached 15.59 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 214%. The food delivery service has partnered with over 2 million quality restaurants, with daily order volume for the top 300 restaurant brands increasing 13 times since launch. Increased marketing investment and rider welfare have enhanced platform competitiveness [2] Future Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 1336.6 billion RMB and 1407.9 billion RMB for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.34% and 5.34%. Non-GAAP net profits are projected to be 32.51 billion RMB and 43.51 billion RMB, reflecting year-on-year changes of -32.03% and 33.84% [3]