Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative performance exceeding the benchmark index by over 10% in the next 12-18 months [2][8]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 40.87 billion RMB in 2024, representing a 33% year-over-year increase, with Q4 revenue reaching 16.11 billion RMB, up 23% year-over-year and 59% quarter-over-quarter [8]. - The net loss for 2024 was narrowed to 5.79 billion RMB, with Q4 net loss at 1.33 billion RMB, showing improvement [8]. - Vehicle sales revenue in Q4 was 14.67 billion RMB, up 20% year-over-year and 67% quarter-over-quarter, driven by increased deliveries of 92,000 units, which is a 52% year-over-year and 97% quarter-over-quarter increase [8]. - The company is expected to continue strong performance in 2025, with a forecast of 91,000-93,000 vehicle deliveries in Q1, representing a year-over-year increase of 317%-326% [8]. Financial Data and Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 90.83 billion RMB, 130.71 billion RMB, and 152.66 billion RMB respectively, with net profits expected to be -1.2 billion RMB, 2.9 billion RMB, and 6.5 billion RMB [2][8]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) improved to 14.3% in 2024, up 12.8 percentage points year-over-year, with Q4 GPM at 14.4% [8]. - The company plans to expand its global presence, targeting over 60 countries by the end of 2025, with a goal for overseas sales to account for 50% of total sales in the next 10 years [8]. Valuation - The report uses the Price-to-Sales (PS) method for valuation, estimating PS ratios of 1.8, 1.3, and 1.1 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [8]. - The target price is set at 103.90 HKD, based on a PS of 2.0 times for 2025 [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 40.87 billion RMB for the year 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 33.2%. The revenue for Q4 2024 was 16.11 billion RMB, with year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth of 23.4% and 59.4%, respectively [3][4]. - The automotive business gross margin for Q4 2024 was 10.0%, an increase of 6.0 percentage points year-on-year and 1.4 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [4]. - The company expects Q1 2025 automotive sales to be between 91,000 and 93,000 units, with a year-on-year growth range of 317.0% to 326.2% [5]. Revenue and Profitability - The automotive business revenue for Q4 2024 was 14.67 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year increase of 20.0% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 66.8% [4]. - The total gross profit for Q4 2024 was 2.32 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 14.4%, reflecting an increase of 8.2 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The company reported a non-GAAP net profit of -5.35 billion RMB for the year 2024, indicating a reduction in losses compared to the previous year [3]. Cost Management and Future Outlook - R&D expenses for Q4 2024 were 2.01 billion RMB, up 53.4% year-on-year, with an R&D expense ratio of 12.5% [5]. - The company had cash and cash equivalents totaling 41.96 billion RMB as of Q4 2024, indicating a strong short-term liquidity position [5]. - The company anticipates significant revenue growth in the coming years, projecting revenues of 95.23 billion RMB in 2025, 148.09 billion RMB in 2026, and 162.90 billion RMB in 2027 [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 40.87 billion RMB for the year 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 33.2%. The Q4 revenue was 16.11 billion RMB, with year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth of 23.4% and 59.4%, respectively [3][4]. - The automotive business gross margin for Q4 2024 was 10.0%, an increase of 6.0 percentage points year-on-year and 1.4 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [3][4]. - The company expects Q1 2025 automotive sales to be between 91,000 and 93,000 units, with a year-on-year growth range of 317.0% to 326.2% [5]. Revenue and Profitability - Q4 2024 automotive revenue was 14.67 billion RMB, with year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter increases of 20.0% and 66.8%, respectively, primarily due to increased delivery volumes [4]. - The overall gross profit for Q4 2024 was 2.32 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 14.4%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 8.2 percentage points [4]. Cost Management - R&D expenses for Q4 2024 were 2.01 billion RMB, up 53.4% year-on-year and 22.9% quarter-on-quarter, with an R&D expense ratio of 12.5% [5]. - Selling and administrative expenses for Q4 2024 were 2.28 billion RMB, with year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter increases of 17.5% and 39.3%, respectively [5]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates a strong product cycle in 2025, with significant new model launches and an expansion into overseas markets, aiming for a sales target of over 20,000 units in 2024 and doubling that in 2025 [7][8]. - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 95.23 billion RMB, 148.09 billion RMB, and 162.90 billion RMB, respectively, with expected net profits of -1.40 billion RMB, 6.43 billion RMB, and 9.14 billion RMB [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The G7 model is expected to lead sales growth in Q2 2025, while brand enhancement will be crucial in H2 2025. The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026, with 2025 revenue revised down to 82.01 billion yuan from 95.56 billion yuan, and 2026 revenue increased to 127.24 billion yuan from 122.06 billion yuan. A new revenue forecast for 2027 is set at 141.85 billion yuan. The Non-GAAP net profit estimates for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted to -1.94 billion yuan and 533 million yuan, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 2.23 billion yuan. The adjusted EPS for 2025-2027 is projected at -1.0, 0.3, and 1.1 yuan, respectively, corresponding to a price-to-sales ratio of 2.0, 1.3, and 1.2 times [5][6]. Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - For 2023, the company reported a revenue of 30.68 billion yuan, with a year-over-year growth of 14.2%. The projected revenues for 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 40.87 billion yuan, 82.01 billion yuan, 127.24 billion yuan, and 141.85 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding year-over-year growth rates of 33.2%, 100.7%, 55.2%, and 11.5%. The net profit for 2023 was -9.44 billion yuan, with projections of -5.55 billion yuan for 2024, -1.94 billion yuan for 2025, 533 million yuan for 2026, and 2.23 billion yuan for 2027. The gross margin is expected to be 14.5% in 2025, while the net margin is projected to improve to 1.6% by 2027 [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The G7 model is expected to lead sales growth in Q2 2025, while brand enhancement will be crucial in H2 2025 [5][6] - Revenue forecasts for 2025 have been adjusted down from 95.56 billion to 82.01 billion, while 2026 revenue is revised up from 122.06 billion to 127.24 billion, with a new forecast for 2027 at 141.85 billion [5] - Non-GAAP net profit estimates for 2025-2026 have been improved, with 2025 projected at -1.94 billion and 2026 at 533 million, leading to adjusted EPS of -1.0 and 0.3 respectively [5] - The company is expected to maintain a double-digit automotive gross margin, driven by platformization and supply chain cost reductions [5] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - 2023A revenue was 30.68 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 14.2% - 2024A revenue is projected at 40.87 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 33.2% - 2025E revenue is expected to reach 82.01 billion, reflecting a significant year-over-year growth of 100.7% - The company is projected to achieve a gross margin of 14.5% in 2025, with a net profit margin of -2.4% [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, Xiaopeng Motors (XPEV.US/9868.HK) [2][8]. Core Views - The target price for Xiaopeng Motors is raised to $27.2, representing a potential upside of 20%, while the target price for Xiaopeng Motors-W is set at HKD 106.2, indicating a potential upside of 19% [2][6]. - The company is entering a strong product cycle with robust delivery performance for models P7+ and M03, and better-than-expected orders for the new G6 and G9 models [8]. - Xiaopeng aims to double its sales by 2025, supported by new model launches and improved overall gross margins [8]. - The automotive gross margin is expected to improve, with a target of breakeven in Q4 2025 [8]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for Xiaopeng Motors from 2023 to 2027 are as follows: - 2023: RMB 30,676 million - 2024: RMB 40,866 million - 2025E: RMB 86,568 million - 2026E: RMB 138,871 million - 2027E: RMB 190,622 million - The revenue growth rates are projected at 14% for 2023, 33% for 2024, 112% for 2025, 60% for 2026, and 37% for 2027 [3][9]. - Gross margin is expected to rise from 1.5% in 2023 to 19.0% by 2027 [3][9]. - Net profit (loss) projections indicate a loss of RMB 10,376 million in 2023, narrowing to a profit of RMB 13,964 million by 2027 [3][9]. Performance Review and Adjustments - In Q4 2024, Xiaopeng Motors reported revenue of RMB 16,105 million, a 23% year-on-year increase, with a gross profit of RMB 2,325 million, reflecting a 187% increase compared to the previous year [10]. - The automotive sales gross margin reached 10.0% in Q4 2024, with expectations for continued improvement in Q1 2025 [8][10]. - The company plans to enhance its AI capabilities and aims to introduce L3 level software capabilities in the second half of 2025 [8]. Valuation - The valuation is based on a sum-of-the-parts approach, applying a price-to-sales ratio of 1.9x for automotive sales and 5.5x for services and other revenues, leading to a target price of $27.2 for Xiaopeng Motors [8][16]. - The target price for Xiaopeng Motors-W is set at HKD 106.2, corresponding to a target price-to-sales ratio of 2.2x [8][16].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [5]. Core Views - The company has announced a conditional grant of 28.5068 million restricted stock units to its chairman and CEO, He Xiaopeng, as part of the 2025 equity incentive plan, which aims to align shareholder interests and reflects the company's confidence in its development [1][3]. - The company is expected to see accelerated sales growth due to its leading smart driving capabilities, a strong new vehicle cycle, channel transformation, and enhanced marketing systems [1][6]. - Financial performance is anticipated to improve continuously, driven by scale enhancement, cost reduction from platforms and technology, expansion of software revenue models, and ongoing growth in overseas markets [1][6]. Summary by Sections Event Description - On March 19, 2025, the company conditionally granted a total of 28.5068 million restricted stock units to He Xiaopeng as part of the 2025 equity incentive plan [3]. Stock Incentive Plan - The stock incentive plan includes three stages based on the average closing price over 30 trading days, with target prices set at HKD 250, 500, and 750, corresponding to market capitalizations of HKD 475.1 billion, 950.2 billion, and 1,425.3 billion respectively [6]. Sales and Revenue Projections - For Q1 2025, the expected delivery volume is between 91,000 and 93,000 units, representing a year-on-year growth of 317.0% to 326.2%, with projected revenue of HKD 15 billion to 15.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 129.1% to 139.8% [6]. - The company has achieved record-breaking monthly deliveries, with the MONA M03 and P7+ models leading the new vehicle cycle [6]. International Expansion - The company is making significant strides in international markets, with plans for rapid deployment of its ultra-fast charging network in Southeast Asia and the launch of its first right-hand drive model in the UK [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Insights - On March 19, 2025, the company announced a conditional grant of 28.5068 million restricted stock units to its chairman and CEO, He Xiaopeng, as part of the 2025 equity incentive plan, which aims to align shareholder interests and reflects the company's confidence in its development [2][4]. - The company is expected to see accelerated sales growth due to its leading smart driving capabilities, a strong new vehicle cycle, channel transformation, and enhanced marketing systems. Financial performance is anticipated to improve with scale, cost reductions from platforms and technology, and the expansion of software profitability models [2][7]. Summary by Sections Event Description - The company plans to grant 28.5068 million restricted stock units to He Xiaopeng, with a purchase price of 0 HKD, contingent on achieving specific stock price targets [4][7]. Financial Projections - For Q1 2025, the expected delivery volume is between 91,000 and 93,000 units, representing a year-on-year growth of 317.0% to 326.2%. Revenue is projected to be between 15 billion and 15.7 billion HKD, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 129.1% to 139.8% [7]. - The company anticipates 2025 revenue of 99.1 billion HKD, corresponding to a price-to-sales ratio of 1.6X, with significant improvements in software revenue contributing to better financial performance [7]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is experiencing a strong new vehicle cycle, with models like MONA M03 and P7+ leading sales. The company has also made significant strides in overseas markets, with plans for rapid expansion in Southeast Asia [7]. - The smart driving technology remains a competitive advantage, and the company is expected to benefit from ongoing channel and marketing improvements [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [10]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in vehicle deliveries and revenue for Q4 2024, with vehicle deliveries reaching 91,507 units, representing a year-on-year growth of 52.1% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 96.6% [1]. - The overall revenue for Q4 was 16.11 billion yuan, with automotive revenue contributing 14.67 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 23.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 59.5% [1]. - The report anticipates a recovery in average selling price (ASP) and gross margins in 2025, driven by new model launches and improvements in vehicle delivery structure [3]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Deliveries - In Q4 2024, the company delivered 91,507 vehicles, with total revenue of 16.11 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 33.2% for the full year, totaling 40.87 billion yuan [1][2]. - The ASP for Q4 was calculated at 160,000 yuan, showing a decline of 21.1% year-on-year [1]. Costs and Expenses - R&D and SG&A expenses for Q4 were 2.01 billion yuan and 2.28 billion yuan, respectively, with R&D and SG&A expense ratios of 12.5% and 14.2% [1]. Profitability - The gross margin for Q4 was 14.4%, with automotive gross margin at 10%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6 percentage points [2]. - The net loss attributable to shareholders for Q4 was 1.33 billion yuan, with a net loss margin of -8.3% [2]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to launch new models in 2025, including the G7, which is anticipated to enhance ASP and gross margins [3]. - Projected sales for 2025 are estimated at 469,000 units, with revenue expected to reach 93.71 billion yuan [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company's AI strategy is driving sustained increases in vehicle deliveries, leading to an upward revision of revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 99 billion and 167.8 billion RMB respectively, with year-on-year growth of 142% and 70% [3] - The company is expected to achieve a turnaround in net profit in 2025, with a projected net profit of 1.07 billion RMB in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 608% [3] - The company plans to launch significant new models and upgrades in 2025, covering a price range of 100,000 to 500,000 RMB, which is expected to enhance long-term growth [9] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved revenue of 16.11 billion RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 23.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 59.4% [9] - The gross margin for Q4 2024 was 14.4%, showing an improvement from the previous year [9] - The company delivered 92,000 new vehicles in Q4 2024, with an average revenue per vehicle of 160,000 RMB [9] Future Outlook - For Q1 2025, the company anticipates delivering between 91,000 and 93,000 new vehicles, representing a year-on-year growth of 317% to 326% [9] - The company aims to achieve L3 level autonomous driving experience in China by the second half of 2025, with plans for L4 low-speed autonomous vehicles in 2026 [9]