以下文章来源于超越 J Curve ，作者超越J曲线 超越 J Curve . 作者丨投中研究院 来源丨超越 J Curve 核心发现 用数据延伸你的阅读 将投中网设为"星标⭐"，第一时间收获最新推送 本期带来2025年2月并购报告， 交易数量同比腰斩，电子信息行业领跑并购热潮。 第一部分 中企并购市场数据分析 并购市场宣布交易月度趋势 2025年2月，披露预案291笔并购交易，环比下降10.46%，同比下降70.61%；当中披露金额的有134笔， 交易总金额为165.17亿美元，环比上升36.91%，同比上升90.31%。虽然交易数量减少，但交易金额的增 2月，受春节及全球市场影响，中企并购市场交易数量呈现下降态势，但交易规模逆势增长。大额交易 量环比有所增加，反映出市场在调整过程中，大额优质项目依然受到关注 共计20支私募基金以并购的方式成功退出，回笼金额为2.04亿元 电子信息、医疗健康和传统制造行业的并购交易数量较为突出，广州交易规模位居榜首 长表明市场上仍存在大规模、高价值的并购项目。 图1-2024年2月-2025年2月中企并购市场宣布交易趋势 并购市场完成交易月度趋势 2025年2月，共计完成2 ...

民营经济促进法草案提交二审 2月26日消息，民营经济促进法草案二审稿近日提交全国人大常委会会议审议。该草案2024年12月份提交一审，目前已经进入二审程序。围 绕民企的一些重点关切，增加了新的规定，"任何单位不得违反法律、法规向民营经济组织收取费用，不得实施没有法律、法规依据的罚款， 不得向民营经济组织摊派财物"。 在2025年全国两会召开前夕，民营企业座谈会对促进民营经济健康发展进行全面部署。民营企业座谈会指出，要坚决破除依法平等使用生产 要素、公平参与市场竞争的各种障碍，持续推进基础设施竞争性领域向各类经营主体公平开放，继续下大气力解决民营企业融资难融资贵问 题。（21经济网） ｜点评 ｜ 民营企业在本轮科技创新浪潮中表现出色，而在内外部经济环境均面临诸多不确定因素的当下，民营经济的活力和韧性更是支撑 经济增长的关键。近年来，民营经济的实际发展仍存在诸多掣肘。尽管相关支持政策陆续出台，但在落地执行时效果存在偏差。此前异地趋 利性执法行为，更是严重损害了民营企业利益，也破坏了整体营商环境。 民营经济发展的立法，凝聚了促进民营经济发展的社会共识，从法律层面认可民营经济的地位。但是要切实提振民营经济的信心，更需 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Baidu Group-SW (09888.HK) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant acceleration in Baidu's cloud business, projecting strong growth in AI-related services for 2025. The intelligent cloud revenue grew by 26% year-on-year in Q4 2024, up from 12% in Q1, 14% in Q2, and 11% in Q3 [3] - The report notes that Baidu's core operating profit margin declined by 4 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a one-time loss of RMB 1 billion, which included provisions for expected credit losses and inventory impairments [4] - The report anticipates gradual improvement in Baidu's advertising business in 2025, driven by economic policy changes and the long-term benefits of generative AI on search services [8] Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, Baidu's total revenue was RMB 134.6 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 8.83%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 20.3 billion, reflecting a significant increase of 168.75% [1] - The forecast for 2024 shows a slight decline in total revenue to RMB 133.1 billion, with a projected net profit of RMB 23.8 billion, a 16.96% increase [1] - Non-GAAP net profit is expected to decrease from RMB 27 billion in 2023 to RMB 25.4 billion in 2025, with a corresponding Non-GAAP PE of 9 times [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Baidu Group-SW (09888.HK) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant acceleration in Baidu's cloud business, projecting strong growth in AI-related services for 2025. The intelligent cloud revenue grew by 26% year-on-year in Q4 2024, up from 12% in Q1, 14% in Q2, and 11% in Q3 [3] - The report notes that Baidu's core operating profit margin declined by 4 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a one-time loss of RMB 1 billion, which included provisions for expected credit losses and inventory impairments [4] - The report anticipates gradual improvement in Baidu's advertising business in 2025, driven by economic policy changes and the long-term benefits of generative AI on search services [8] Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, Baidu's total revenue was RMB 134.6 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 8.83%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 20.3 billion, reflecting a significant increase of 168.75% [1] - The forecast for 2024 shows a slight decline in total revenue to RMB 133.1 billion, with a projected net profit of RMB 23.8 billion, a 16.96% increase [1] - Non-GAAP net profit is expected to decrease from RMB 27 billion in 2023 to RMB 25.4 billion in 2025, with a corresponding Non-GAAP PE of 9 times [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Baidu Group is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Insights - Baidu Group's total revenue for Q4 2024 was 341 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 2% year-on-year, with adjusted net profit reaching 67 billion yuan, down 13% year-on-year [1][7] - The core advertising revenue declined by 7%, while the AI-driven cloud business showed significant growth, with a 26% increase in revenue [2][17] - The company is focusing on AI technology to enhance search advertising and cloud services, with expectations of adjusted net profits of 272 billion yuan in 2025 and 301 billion yuan in 2026 [21] Financial Performance Summary - For Q4 2024, Baidu's core revenue remained stable year-on-year, while iQIYI's revenue fell by 14% [12] - The online marketing revenue for Q4 2024 was 179 billion yuan, down 7% year-on-year, primarily due to economic pressures on small and medium enterprises [14] - The adjusted net profit margin for Baidu's core business was 24% in Q4 2024, with operating expenses remaining stable at 122 billion yuan [7][14] Business Segment Analysis - The non-marketing revenue for Baidu's core business reached 98 billion yuan in Q4 2024, a 43% increase, driven by the intelligent cloud business [17] - The AI cloud business revenue was 71 billion yuan, reflecting a 26% year-on-year growth, with significant increases in API call volumes [2][17] - Apollo Go achieved 100% fully autonomous driving operations in China, providing over 1.1 million rides in Q4 2024, a 36% increase year-on-year [18]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Baidu Group-SW is "Buy" (maintained) [6][13]. Core Views - The growth of intelligent cloud services is accelerating due to AI, and the advertising business is expected to gradually recover with the macroeconomic environment and AI search commercialization [6]. - The non-GAAP net profit forecast for 2025-2026 has been slightly adjusted to 27.1 billion and 29.4 billion CNY respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 32 billion CNY, corresponding to year-on-year growth rates of 0.2%, 8.7%, and 8.7% [6]. - The current stock price of 88.35 HKD corresponds to a PE ratio of 8.7, 8.0, and 7.4 for 2025-2027 [6]. Financial Summary and Valuation Indicators - Revenue for 2023 was 134.6 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 8.8%. For 2024, revenue is expected to decline slightly by 1.1% to 133.1 billion CNY, followed by a growth of 3.2% in 2025 [9]. - Non-GAAP net profit for 2023 was 28.7 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 39.0%. The forecast for 2024 is a decline of 6.1% to 27.0 billion CNY, with a slight recovery in 2025 [9]. - The gross margin for 2025 is projected to be 51.3%, while the net margin is expected to be 19.7% [9]. - The diluted EPS for 2025 is estimated at 9.4 CNY, with a PE ratio of 8.7 [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Baidu Group-SW is "Buy" (maintained) [6][13]. Core Views - The growth of intelligent cloud services is accelerating due to AI, and the advertising business is expected to gradually recover with the macroeconomic environment and AI search commercialization [6]. - The non-GAAP net profit forecast for 2025-2026 has been slightly adjusted to 27.1 billion and 29.4 billion CNY respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 32 billion CNY, corresponding to year-on-year growth rates of 0.2%, 8.7%, and 8.7% [6]. - The current stock price of 88.35 HKD corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 8.7, 8.0, and 7.4 for the years 2025-2027 [6]. Financial Summary and Valuation Indicators - Revenue for 2023 is reported at 134.6 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 8.8%. For 2024, revenue is expected to decline slightly to 133.1 billion CNY, a decrease of 1.1% [9]. - Non-GAAP net profit for 2023 is 28.7 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 39.0%. The forecast for 2024 is a decline to 27.0 billion CNY, a decrease of 6.1% [9]. - The gross margin is projected to be 52.6% in 2023, slightly improving to 52.9% in 2024, while the net margin is expected to decrease from 21.4% in 2023 to 20.3% in 2024 [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Baidu Group-SW is "Buy" (maintained) [6][13]. Core Views - The growth of intelligent cloud services is accelerating due to AI, and the advertising business is expected to gradually recover with the macroeconomic environment and AI search commercialization [6]. - The non-GAAP net profit forecast for 2025-2026 has been slightly adjusted to 27.1 billion and 29.4 billion CNY respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 32 billion CNY, corresponding to year-on-year growth rates of 0.2%, 8.7%, and 8.7% [6]. - The current stock price of 88.35 HKD corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 8.7, 8.0, and 7.4 for the years 2025-2027 [6]. Financial Summary and Valuation Indicators - Revenue for 2023 was 134.6 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 8.8%. For 2024, revenue is expected to decline slightly to 133.1 billion CNY [9]. - Non-GAAP net profit for 2023 was 28.7 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 39.0%. The forecast for 2024 is a decline to 27.0 billion CNY [9]. - The gross margin for 2025 is projected to be 51.3%, with a net margin of 19.7% [9]. - The diluted EPS for 2025 is expected to be 9.4 CNY, with a PE ratio of 8.7 [9].

Financial Performance - Baidu's total revenue for Q4 2024 was RMB 34.951 billion (USD 4.675 billion), a decrease of 2% year-over-year[6]. - Operating profit for Q4 2024 was RMB 5.392 billion (USD 537 million), down 27% year-over-year[6]. - Net profit attributable to Baidu for Q4 2024 was RMB 2.599 billion (USD 711 million), a 100% increase year-over-year[6]. - Total revenue for the fiscal year 2024 was RMB 133.1 billion (USD 18.2 billion), a year-on-year decrease of 1%[20]. - Net profit attributable to Baidu for the twelve months ended December 31, 2023, was RMB 20,315 million, an increase from RMB 23,760 million in the previous year[36]. - Baidu's net profit margin for the twelve months ending December 31, 2023, was 15%[46]. - Baidu's total revenue for the twelve months ending December 31, 2023, was RMB 55.83 billion, with a projected increase to RMB 66.40 billion for 2024[37]. - The company expects total revenue for the twelve months ending December 31, 2024, to be approximately RMB 133,125 million, indicating a slight decrease of 1%[46]. Revenue Breakdown - Baidu's core revenue for Q4 2024 was RMB 27.7 billion (USD 3.8 billion), a year-on-year increase of 1%[4]. - Online marketing revenue decreased by 7% year-on-year to RMB 17.9 billion (USD 2.5 billion) in Q4 2024[4]. - Non-online marketing revenue increased by 18% year-on-year to RMB 9.8 billion (USD 1.3 billion), primarily driven by the smart cloud business[4]. - Total revenue for Baidu Group was RMB 27,488 million for the three months ended December 31, 2023, representing a year-over-year increase of 1% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 4%[42]. - Baidu's core business generated RMB 103,465 million in revenue, while iQIYI contributed RMB 31,873 million, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 8%[46]. Expenses and Profitability - Research and development expenses for Q4 2024 were RMB 5.5 billion (USD 756 million), a decrease of 12% year-over-year[14]. - Sales and management expenses for Q4 2024 were RMB 6.7 billion (USD 915 million), an increase of 14% year-over-year[14]. - Operating profit for Baidu Group was RMB 21,856 million, with an operating margin of 16% for the same period, reflecting a 3% decrease year-over-year[46]. - The company reported a total cost and expenses of RMB 112,742 million, which is a 1% decrease year-over-year[46]. - Baidu's adjusted EBITDA for the twelve months ended December 31, 2023, was RMB 31,863 million, with an expected increase to RMB 30,587 million for the twelve months ending December 31, 2024[58]. User Engagement and Growth - The average daily API calls for the Wenxin series models reached 1.65 billion in December 2024, with external API calls increasing by 178% quarter-over-quarter[11]. - Monthly active users of Baidu Wenku's AI features reached 94 million in December 2024, a year-over-year increase of 216%[11]. - As of December 2024, Baidu's monthly active users reached 679 million, a year-on-year growth of 2%[4]. - The company anticipates continued growth in user data and market expansion, supported by new product developments and technological advancements[54]. Investments and Cash Flow - Free cash flow for the fiscal year 2024 was RMB 13.1 billion (USD 1.8 billion), while free cash flow excluding iQIYI was RMB 11.1 billion (USD 1.5 billion)[24]. - The net cash used in investing activities for the twelve months ended December 31, 2023, was RMB 48,657 million, indicating a significant investment outflow[52]. - Baidu's capital expenditures for the twelve months ended December 31, 2023, amounted to RMB 11,154 million, indicating ongoing investments in infrastructure[52]. - The company experienced a net cash outflow from financing activities of RMB 9,876 million for the twelve months ended December 31, 2023, reflecting changes in capital structure[52]. Market Position and Recognition - Baidu was included in the S&P Global Sustainability Yearbook 2024, highlighting its progress in ESG practices[11]. - The company is focusing on market expansion and new product development, as indicated by increased R&D spending and asset growth[37].

撰 文 / 路 行 设 计 / 赵昊然 2025年春节期间，DeepSeek横空出世，国人狂喜，美股轰动——彼时周一开盘，纳斯达克市值前十 的科技公司总市值亏损近1万亿美元。2月6日，OpenAI宣布向所有用户开放ChatGPT搜索，无需注 册。 此后，吉利、岚图、东风、智己、奇瑞、长城、比亚迪、长安等车企相继宣布与DeepSeek AI大模 型深度合作，这场围绕着智能驾驶算法、车载AI系统、用户生态构建的"技术联姻"，将中国汽车产 业在智能化下半场的生态级竞争推向新的阶段。 而从年初就打响的智驾之战，正迅速蔓延到整个汽车市场。2月9日，长安汽车发布"北斗天枢 2.0"智能化战略，深蓝汽车将高阶智驾下探到10万元车型；次日，比亚迪发布"天神之眼"智驾系 统，7.88万元的海鸥将搭载，号称开启全民智驾时代。 尽管业内对于高阶智驾的定义尚未形成统一定论，但无论如何，从辅助驾驶的普及到高阶自动驾驶 的突破，从单一技术迭代到全产业链协同革新，一场以人工智能为核心的变革浪潮已势不可挡。 中国在这一领域正在实现领跑。L2级自动驾驶功能渗透率增速迅猛，城区NOA功能从高端车型下 沉至10万元级市场，端到端大模型的落地让"全 ...