Core Viewpoint - Miniso (MNSO.US) shares surged over 8% pre-market, reaching $23.98, while its H-shares rose over 20.5% to HKD 47.1, marking a new high since January this year [1] Financial Performance - For Q2, Miniso reported total revenue of RMB 4.97 billion, a year-on-year increase of 23.1% [1] - Adjusted net profit (Non-IFRS) for the same period was RMB 690 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.6% [1] - Gross margin improved by 40 basis points to 44.3% compared to the previous year [1] Sales Growth - The strategy of "opening good stores and large stores" has shown significant results, with notable improvements in same-store sales both in mainland China and overseas [1] - The group achieved positive same-store sales growth, indicating a recovery trend [1] Analyst Ratings - UBS reported that same-store sales growth for Miniso is accelerating in both China and the U.S., driven by a low base effect and strong demand for plush toys [1] - UBS raised its target price for Miniso from $25 to $28, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] - Bank of America noted that Miniso's Q2 performance exceeded expectations, increasing its H-share target price from HKD 32 to HKD 46.9, upgrading its rating from "Underperform" to "Neutral" [1]

研究报告 Research Report 22 Aug 2025 名创优品 MINISO Group (MNSO US) 2Q 恢复超预期，大店+兴趣消费推动全球化发展 2Q Recovery Exceeds Expectations, Large Stores & Interest-Driven Consumption Drive Global Development [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_Info] 维持优于大市 Maintain OUTPERFORM 评级 优于大市 OUTPERFORM 现价 US$22.17 目标价 US$27.30 市值 US$6.21bn 日交易额 (3 个月均值) US$16.62mn 发行股票数目 310.66mn 自由流通股 (%) - 1 年股价最高最低值 US$27.56-US$13.40 注：现价 US$22.17 为 2025 年 08 月 21 日收盘价 资料来源： Factset 1mth 3mth 12mth 绝对值 24.6% 6.1% 56.2% 绝对值（美元） 24.6% 6.1% 56. ...

Group 1: Company Ratings and Target Prices - Bank of America upgraded Miniso's rating to Neutral with a target price raised to HKD 46.9, driven by a 23% revenue and 11% profit growth in Q2, exceeding expectations [1] - Minsheng Securities maintained a recommendation rating for XPeng Motors, anticipating revenue growth from 2025 to 2027 to reach HKD 888.3 billion, HKD 1,406.4 billion, and HKD 1,925.1 billion respectively [1] - CICC downgraded China Software International's rating to Outperform the Market but raised the target price to HKD 7.1, citing the launch of Huawei's HarmonyOS personal computers as a key growth driver [3] Group 2: Company Performance and Growth Potential - CMB International maintained a Buy rating for China Biologic Products, noting double-digit revenue growth driven by innovative and biosimilar drugs, despite short-term pressure on core pharmaceutical profits due to increased R&D spending [2] - Morgan Stanley maintained a rating of In Line for Kuaishou, raising the target price to HKD 76, reflecting strong demand for AI applications and an increase in capital expenditure guidance from RMB 10 billion to RMB 12 billion [4] - Guosen Securities maintained a Buy rating for Xiaomi Group with a target price of HKD 62.3, driven by short-term growth from the YU7 series car deliveries and long-term potential from AIoT products [5] Group 3: Financial Performance and Trends - Huatai Securities maintained a Buy rating for ZhongAn Online, highlighting a positive trend across insurance, investment, technology, and banking sectors, with health insurance premiums growing by 38.3% year-on-year [6] - Huaxin Securities maintained a Buy rating for Tencent Holdings, projecting net profits of HKD 2,523.1 billion, HKD 2,861.0 billion, and HKD 3,246.3 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, supported by stable growth in gaming and AI-driven services [7] - Bank of America reiterated a Buy rating for SOTY Technology, raising the target price to HKD 46, with expectations of significant performance growth in the coming years [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, Miniso (9896 HK), with a target price raised to HKD 48.70, indicating a potential upside of 24.7% from the current price of HKD 39.06 [1][8][12]. Core Insights - The company's Q2 performance exceeded expectations, with management raising guidance for overall revenue growth to over 25% for the year, up from the initial guidance of over 22.8% [2][7]. - The domestic same-store sales are expected to achieve positive year-on-year growth, while the overseas market continues to expand, with a net increase of 94 stores in Q2 [7][8]. - The revenue for the first half of the year grew by 21.1% year-on-year to RMB 9.39 billion, driven by overseas markets and the Top Toy segment [7][8]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the years 2023 to 2027 are as follows: - 2023: RMB 13,839 million - 2024: RMB 16,994 million - 2025E: RMB 21,158 million - 2026E: RMB 24,835 million - 2027E: RMB 28,388 million - Year-on-year growth rates for revenue are projected at 37.2% for 2023, 22.8% for 2024, and 24.5% for 2025 [3][14]. - Net profit estimates are: - 2023: RMB 2,253 million - 2024: RMB 2,618 million - 2025E: RMB 2,564 million - 2026E: RMB 3,364 million - 2027E: RMB 3,967 million [3][14]. - The adjusted net profit for 2025-2027 has been revised down by 13-14% to RMB 28-40 billion due to more conservative margin assumptions [8][9]. Market Performance - The stock has shown a year-to-date decline of 16.98%, with a 52-week high of HKD 52.05 and a low of HKD 25.05 [6][12]. - The average daily trading volume is 11.84 million shares, with a market capitalization of approximately HKD 47.92 billion [6][12].

Core Insights - Miniso's Q2 2025 performance exceeded market expectations, marking the first positive same-store sales growth in four quarters [1][2] - The company is accelerating its proprietary IP strategy, with CEO Ye Guofu stating a dual approach of "international IP + proprietary IP" to drive development, directly competing with Pop Mart in the trendy toy market [1][3] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Miniso achieved revenue of 9.393 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.1%, with Q2 revenue at 4.97 billion yuan, up 23.1% [2] - Adjusted net profit rose by 10.6% to 690 million yuan, while adjusted operating profit increased by 8.5% to 852 million yuan [2] - The recovery in performance is attributed to improvements in same-store sales and the expansion of large store strategies, with same-store sales in mainland China showing positive growth in Q3 [2] Same-Store Sales and Market Trends - Q2 marked the first positive same-store sales growth for Miniso in four quarters, with the Miniso brand's same-store sales remaining flat and TOP TOY brand showing low single-digit growth [2] - The decline in same-store sales in overseas markets has narrowed, with Europe and North America achieving mid to high single-digit growth [2] Strategic Initiatives - Ye Guofu emphasized the importance of the proprietary IP strategy, noting that Miniso has established advantages in product development, marketing, and channel management through international IP collaborations, but lacked proprietary IP [3] - Miniso has signed contracts with nine trendy toy artists for its proprietary IP initiative, with the first product launched in June [3] - TOP TOY acquired a 51% stake in HiTOY, a trendy toy company, expanding Miniso's proprietary IP portfolio [3] Analyst Outlook - Following the earnings release, Nomura raised its revenue and profit forecasts for Miniso for 2025-2027 by 3-4% and 3-7%, respectively, and increased the target price from $24.20 to $25.50, maintaining a buy rating with an implied upside of 22% [4] - Analysts noted that the operation of proprietary IP requires different skill sets compared to third-party IP operations, leaving uncertainty about whether Miniso's proprietary IP strategy can drive sustained sales growth [4]

智通财经APP获悉，美银证券发布研报称，把名创优品(09896)评级从"跑输大市"上调至"中性"，因其第 二季业绩超出预期。收入及非国际财务报告准则净利润分别增长23%及11%，较第一季度的增长19%及 倒退5%有所加速。当中，非国际财务报告准则净利润超出该行预估14%，受惠于收入较预期高出3%及 更好的利润率。 该行将名创优品今明两年非国际财务报告准则每股盈利预测上调11%及2%。目标价由32港元上调至46.9 港元，以反映更高的业绩预估、估值基准从2025年转为2025及2026年平均值，以及目标市盈率由12倍升 至15倍。该行指出，名创优品目前估值为远期市盈率14倍，对应2025至2027年每股盈利年复复合增长率 14%，隐含的市盈增长率为1倍，属合理估值。 ...

该行将名创优品今明两年非国际财务报告准则每股盈利预测上调11%及2%。目标价由32港元上调至46.9 港元，以反映更高的业绩预估、估值基准从2025年转为2025及2026年平均值，以及目标市盈率由12倍升 至15倍。该行指出，名创优品目前估值为远期市盈率14倍，对应2025至2027年每股盈利年复复合增长率 14%，隐含的市盈增长率为1倍，属合理估值。 美银证券发布研报称，把名创优品(09896)评级从"跑输大市"上调至"中性"，因其第二季业绩超出预期。 收入及非国际财务报告准则净利润分别增长23%及11%，较第一季度的增长19%及倒退5%有所加速。当 中，非国际财务报告准则净利润超出该行预估14%，受惠于收入较预期高出3%及更好的利润率。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Bank of America Securities indicates that Miniso's Q2 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue and non-IFRS net profit growing by 23% and 11% respectively, showing acceleration compared to Q1's growth of 19% and a decline of 5% [1] Financial Performance - Non-IFRS net profit surpassed Bank of America's estimates by 14%, benefiting from revenue being 3% higher than expected and improved profit margins [1] - The company adjusted its non-IFRS earnings per share forecasts for the next two years upward by 11% and 2% respectively [1] Target Price and Valuation - The target price for Miniso was raised from HKD 32 to HKD 46.9, reflecting higher performance estimates and a shift in valuation benchmarks from 2025 to the average of 2025 and 2026 [1] - The target price-to-earnings ratio was increased from 12 times to 15 times, and the rating was upgraded from "underperform" to "neutral" [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS reports that MINISO's same-store sales growth is accelerating in both China and the United States, driven by a low base effect and strong demand for plush toys [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - In China, management's efforts in channel upgrades, such as MINISO Land and flagship stores, have been successful, with same-store sales growth turning positive year-on-year in Q2 [1] - Q3 is expected to see a significant acceleration in same-store sales growth from low single digits in Q2 to high single digits [1] Group 2: Profitability - UBS forecasts that the store-level profit margin will remain flat year-on-year for the first half of the year, with significant improvement expected in July and continued improvement in the second half [1] Group 3: IP Strategy - MINISO's proprietary IP, YOYO, was successfully launched in June, with the first batch of products selling out quickly, generating an estimated total merchandise volume (GMV) of approximately 40 million yuan this year, with a target of over 100 million yuan by 2026 [1] - The acquisition of IP Nommi by Top Toy is expected to generate 250 million yuan in GMV this year, compared to 100 million yuan in 2024 [1] Group 4: Financial Forecasts - UBS has raised its adjusted net profit forecasts for MINISO for 2025 to 2027 by 1% to 2%, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] - The target price for MINISO's U.S. stock has been increased from $25 to $28 [1]

Core Viewpoint - MINISO reported a revenue of 9.393 billion RMB for the first half of 2025, marking a 21.1% increase year-on-year, with a notable growth in the second quarter of 23.1% [1] Financial Performance - The operating profit for the first half of 2025 was 1.546 billion RMB, reflecting a 3.4% year-on-year increase, while the net profit decreased by 23.1% to 906 million RMB [1] - TOP TOY, a brand under MINISO, achieved a revenue of 742 million RMB (approximately 104 million USD) in the first half of 2025, representing a 73% increase year-on-year, with second-quarter revenue reaching 400 million RMB (approximately 56.1 million USD), up 87% [3][4] Business Expansion - As of June 30, 2025, TOP TOY had a total of 293 stores, with 283 located in mainland China, and added 17 new stores in the first half of the year, resulting in a net increase of 98 stores compared to the same period last year [8] - The management anticipates a 50%-60% increase in the number of stores and a 70%-80% growth in performance for TOP TOY this year [8] Strategic Initiatives - MINISO is shifting its store strategy from relying on small stores to a diversified approach that includes MINISO LAND series, flagship stores, regular stores, and pop-up stores to cater to different commercial ecosystems [8] - The MINISO LAND store in Shanghai achieved over 100 million RMB in sales within nine months, showcasing a new paradigm in interest-based consumption [10] IP Development - The company aims to enhance its IP strategy by focusing on both international and proprietary IPs to drive sustainable growth [16] - MINISO has signed contracts with nine toy artists and has invested 5.1 million RMB to acquire a 51% stake in HiTOY, which has a diverse product line and annual sales exceeding 100 million RMB [18] Market Outlook - The performance of competitors like Pop Mart reinforces MINISO's confidence in the growth potential of the toy market in China, indicating a burgeoning consumer interest and market development [20]