Core Insights - The IELTS exam is undergoing two significant adjustments: a new speaking test question rotation occurring three times a year and a reduction in registration fees, presenting both challenges and opportunities for candidates [1] Course Offerings - New Oriental International Education provides personalized course plans tailored to different age groups and proficiency levels, ensuring each student finds a suitable preparation path [1] - For middle school students, a specialized course is designed to enhance comprehensive English skills, laying a solid foundation for future IELTS preparation [1] - High school students can enroll in the "High School IELTS Fast Track PRO" course, which combines regular and guidance classes to rapidly improve all four skills necessary for IELTS [3] - University students and adults can choose from premium classes and intensive training camps during winter and summer breaks, focusing on short-term skill enhancement [5] Teaching Quality - New Oriental is one of the earliest IELTS training institutions, boasting extensive teaching experience and a wealth of resources, including a large question bank and teaching materials [6] - The institution operates in 47 cities nationwide, allowing students to select convenient training locations, and offers high-quality online courses [6] - The teaching staff consists of experienced educators with IELTS scores of 7.5 or above, ensuring professional guidance and effective preparation strategies [6] Innovative Learning Strategies - New Oriental integrates AI technology and smart learning tools to provide personalized support for students [8] - The NOBLE platform offers a vast array of online exercises and listening resources, enabling students to review material anytime and track their progress [8] - Tools like Echo headphones and dictionary pens facilitate listening and speaking practice, allowing for real-time correction and improvement [8] Overall Commitment - New Oriental International Education is committed to meeting the diverse needs of students, from middle schoolers to adults, with a comprehensive course system and effective support for IELTS preparation [10]

Core Insights - The education big data industry in China is experiencing rapid growth, with the market size projected to increase from 1.8 billion yuan in 2015 to 53.516 billion yuan in 2024, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 45.78% [1][10] - The industry is supported by the development of online education, particularly in the K12 sector, and the advancement of educational information technology and smart education [1][10] - The market is expected to continue expanding, with an estimated size of 66.896 billion yuan by 2025 [1][10] Industry Overview - Education big data refers to the collection of data generated during educational activities or collected based on educational needs, which has the potential to drive educational development and create significant value [3][9] - Current applications of education big data are primarily focused on adaptive learning and precise classroom teaching, with notable examples including smart learning companions and data-driven teaching tools [3][9] - The industry is characterized by a diverse range of participants, including leading data service providers, new entrepreneurial firms, large internet companies, and traditional educational information companies [10] Market Dynamics - The education big data industry is part of the broader big data sector, which has seen its market size grow from 3.6 trillion yuan in 2017 to an expected 30 trillion yuan by 2025, with a CAGR of 31.13% [7][9] - The industry is evolving from a focus on scale expansion to deep exploration and precise empowerment of existing educational processes and resources [5][10] Key Players - Notable companies in the education big data sector include iFLYTEK, Tsinghua Tongfang, Honghe Technology, and DouShen Education, among others [1][10] - The industry also includes emerging firms like Sanmeng Technology and Guangda Information Technology, which focus on deep data mining and application innovation in the education vertical [2][10] Development Trends - The future of education big data will see increased openness, moving towards systematic sharing across regions and industries while ensuring data security and privacy [14] - Innovative applications will expand beyond individual tools to become integral to the entire educational process, enhancing personalized teaching and data-driven decision-making [15][16] - The industry ecosystem is expected to mature, transitioning from a technology supplier-dominated market to a collaborative network of diverse stakeholders [17]

Core Viewpoint - New Oriental Education & Technology Group (09901) saw a significant stock price increase of over 6%, closing at HKD 44.98 with a trading volume of HKD 92.46 million, ahead of its upcoming financial results announcement for Q2 of FY2026 on January 28 [1] Financial Performance Expectations - According to Shenwan Hongyuan's report, New Oriental is expected to generate revenue of USD 1.165 billion for Q2 of FY2026, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.2% [1] - The company's Non-GAAP net profit is projected to be USD 63 million, reflecting a substantial year-on-year increase of 77.8% [1] - The Non-GAAP net profit margin is anticipated to be 5.4%, which indicates a 2 percentage point expansion compared to the previous year [1] Business Operations Insights - The report highlights that the pressure on profit margins due to the contraction in the study abroad business is expected to be alleviated soon [1] - The company plans to slow down the growth rate of its teaching centers to 10% for the year, aiming to enhance the capacity utilization of these centers, which is expected to gradually relieve margin pressures [1]

Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market showed strong performance on the first trading day of 2026, with the Hang Seng Index surpassing 26,000 points, closing up 2.76% or 707.93 points at 26,338.47 points, with a total turnover of HKD 140.86 billion [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 4%, closing at 5,736.44 points, indicating a positive sentiment in technology stocks [1] Blue-Chip Stocks - Baidu Group-SW (09888) led blue-chip stocks, rising 9.35% to HKD 143.8, contributing 12.42 points to the Hang Seng Index, with a trading volume of HKD 4.778 billion [2] - Baidu announced plans to spin off Kunlun Chip for independent listing, with an estimated valuation of USD 16 billion to USD 23 billion, suggesting Baidu's stake could be valued between USD 9 billion to USD 13 billion [2] - Other notable blue-chip performers included New Oriental-S (09901) up 7.15%, China Life (02628) up 5.33%, and Tencent (00700) up 4.01% [2] Sector Performance - The commercial aerospace sector saw a significant surge, with China Technology Group (01725) up 42.86% and Asia Pacific Satellite (01045) up 34.53% following the acceptance of Blue Arrow Aerospace's IPO application [3] - Semiconductor stocks also performed well, with Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) up 9.42% and SMIC (00981) up 5.11%, driven by industry trends and acquisitions [4] - The robotics sector continued its upward trend, with notable gains from companies like Lijiang Technology (00558) and Jinli Permanent Magnet (06680) [4] Policy Impact - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance announced a new policy for large-scale equipment updates and consumer goods replacement, expected to boost domestic appliance consumption [7] - Companies in the home appliance sector, such as Skyworth Group (00751) and Midea Group (00300), saw significant stock price increases, reflecting positive market sentiment towards the new policy [6][7] Notable Stock Movements - Wall Street's first trading day of 2026 saw significant movements, with Biran Technology (06082) debuting at a 75.82% increase, focusing on GPGPU chips for AI computing [7] - Meitu Company (01357) issued USD 250 million convertible bonds to Alibaba, which will make Alibaba the third-largest shareholder, indicating a strategic partnership [8] - Likin Resources (02245) received approval for its A-share IPO, reflecting confidence in its comprehensive industry chain in nickel trading and production [9]

Core Viewpoint - New Oriental-S (09901) experienced a significant increase of over 6% in stock price, closing at 44.98 HKD, ahead of its upcoming Q2 financial results announcement on January 28, 2026 [1] Financial Performance Expectations - New Oriental is expected to report a revenue of 1.165 billion USD for Q2 of the 2026 fiscal year, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.2% [1] - The company's Non-GAAP net profit is projected to be 6.3 million USD, showing a substantial year-on-year increase of 77.8% [1] - The Non-GAAP net profit margin is anticipated to be 5.4%, which reflects a 2 percentage point expansion compared to the previous year [1] Business Outlook - The pressure on profit margins is expected to gradually ease as the decline in the study abroad business reaches its bottom [1] - The company plans to slow down the growth rate of its teaching centers to 10% for the year, aiming to improve the utilization rate of teaching center capacity [1]

Group 1 - New Oriental-S (09901.HK) saw a significant increase in stock price, rising over 6% in the last trading session [2] - As of the latest update, the stock price reached 44.98 HKD, marking a 6.44% increase [2] - The trading volume for New Oriental-S was reported at 92.4643 million HKD [2]

Company Overview - New Oriental Education & Technology Group operates a wide range of private education services in China, including K-12 after-school tutoring, test preparation, language training, and online education programs [5][8] - The company reported a market capitalization of $9.17 billion and a revenue of $4.99 billion for the trailing twelve months (TTM) [4] - Net income for the TTM was $367 million, indicating a slight year-over-year decline of 2% [4][10] Financial Performance - For the fiscal first quarter, revenue increased by 6.1% year-over-year to $1.52 billion, while operating income rose to $310.8 million [9] - Non-GAAP operating income grew by 11.3% to $335.5 million, supported by improved cost discipline and a 100-basis-point expansion in non-GAAP operating margin [9] - The company generated nearly $192 million in operating cash flow for the quarter and maintained over $1.28 billion in cash on its balance sheet [9] Investment Activity - First Beijing Investment Ltd increased its stake in New Oriental by 2.23 million shares, bringing its total position to 9.35 million shares valued at $496.02 million as of September 30 [2][6] - New Oriental now represents 19.15% of First Beijing Investment's U.S. equity portfolio, indicating a significant commitment to the education sector [2][6] Market Context - As of the latest data, New Oriental shares were priced at $55.03, reflecting a 13% decline over the past year, contrasting with the S&P 500's increase of approximately 16% [3] - The investor's decision to increase its stake in New Oriental suggests a belief that the market is undervaluing the company's resilience despite the challenges faced by the education sector in recent years [6][10]

Core Viewpoint - The recent management changes at Dongfang Zhenxuan indicate a shift in leadership, with Yu Minhong taking over as the legal representative and manager, following the departure of Sun Dongxu due to personal reasons [2][3]. Group 1: Company Changes - Dongfang Zhenxuan (Zhuhai) Tourism Culture Co., Ltd. has undergone a business change, with Sun Dongxu resigning as the legal representative and executive director, and Yu Minhong assuming these roles [2]. - The company was established in October 2023 with a registered capital of 10 million RMB, focusing on tourism development project planning, ticketing agency services, and passenger ticketing agency [2]. - Sun Dongxu has also resigned from several other positions in related companies, indicating a broader shift in his involvement with the organization [2]. Group 2: Leadership Transition - Yu Minhong confirmed Sun Dongxu's departure from Dongfang Zhenxuan, stating that Sun made the decision after careful consideration and for personal reasons [3]. - Yu expressed hope that Sun would return to a management position in the future, highlighting the collaborative founding relationship they share [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the overseas education sector, particularly highlighting New Oriental as a key player [10]. Core Insights - The overseas education sector is experiencing improved operational efficiency and accelerated profit margin expansion, with New Oriental expected to report a revenue of $1.165 billion for Q2 FY26, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.2% [5][10]. - The report anticipates a significant increase in non-GAAP net profit for New Oriental, projected at $63 million, which is a 77.8% increase year-on-year, with a non-GAAP net profit margin of 5.4%, expanding by 2 percentage points [5][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Overseas Education - **Market Review**: The education index rose by 2.8% in the week of December 19-25, outperforming the Hang Seng Index by 1.8 percentage points, with a year-to-date increase of 13.1% [4]. - **Company Update**: New Oriental's revenue is expected to reach $1.165 billion, with the education business (including cultural tourism) contributing $957 million, a growth of 11% year-on-year [5][10]. - **Study Abroad Business**: The revenue from study abroad exam training and consulting is projected to decline by 3% to $242 million, reflecting a slowdown in growth due to high base effects from the previous year [2][5]. - **New Business Growth**: New business segments, including K9 competency training and learning machine services, are expected to grow by 21% to $364 million, driven by differentiated offerings for primary and secondary education [3][6]. - **Operating Profit Margin Improvement**: Despite a slowdown in high-margin study abroad business, the increase in competency business margins is expected to offset this. The non-GAAP operating profit margin is projected to expand by approximately 2 percentage points to 4.7% [6][10]. 2. Overseas Pharmaceuticals - **Market Review**: The Hang Seng Healthcare Index saw a slight increase of 0.02%, underperforming the Hang Seng Index by 1.24 percentage points [12]. - **Key Events**: Notable transactions include Sanofi's $2.2 billion acquisition of vaccine company Dynavax, which has a marketed hepatitis B vaccine and a promising shingles vaccine candidate [14]. - **Investment Recommendations**: The report suggests focusing on innovative drug companies with active business development opportunities and clinical progress in key pipelines, including companies like BeiGene and Innovent Biologics [15]. 3. Overseas Social Services - **Ctrip's Q3 Performance**: Ctrip reported a 16% year-on-year revenue increase to $18.4 billion, with strong performance across various business segments, particularly in international OTA platforms [17]. - **Tongcheng Travel's Q3 Performance**: Tongcheng Travel's revenue grew by 10% to $5.5 billion, with a notable increase in accommodation and core OTA business revenues [18]. - **Key Focus**: The report highlights potential growth in the outbound travel sector and the importance of hotel management services as additional growth drivers [19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the overseas education sector, particularly on New Oriental, with an investment rating of "Buy" [12]. Core Insights - New Oriental is expected to achieve revenue of $1.165 billion in 2QFY26, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.2%. The education business (including cultural tourism) is projected to generate $957 million, up 11% year-on-year, while other businesses (mainly Dongfang Zhenxuan) are expected to reach $208 million, growing 18% year-on-year. The Non-GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company is anticipated to be $63 million, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 77.8% [6][12]. - The report highlights a slowdown in the growth of the study abroad business, with expected revenue of $242 million in 2QFY26, down 3% year-on-year. This slowdown is attributed to high-end consumption challenges in the one-on-one exam preparation segment. The company is adapting by shifting from one-on-one to one-to-many class formats to lower per-class costs and expanding services to younger students [2][6]. - New business segments, including K9 competency training and learning machine services, are projected to grow by 21% year-on-year to $364 million in 2QFY26. The company aims to enhance operational efficiency and profit margins through improved utilization of existing teaching resources [3][7]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The education index increased by 2.8% during the week, outperforming the Hang Seng Index by 1.8 percentage points. Year-to-date, the education index has risen by 13.1%, lagging behind the Hang Seng Index by 9.18 percentage points [5]. Company Updates - New Oriental's revenue forecast for 2QFY26 is $1.165 billion, with a Non-GAAP net profit of $63 million and a Non-GAAP net profit margin of 5.4%, expanding by 2 percentage points year-on-year [6][12]. - The report notes a significant decline in the growth rate of the study abroad business, with a projected revenue decrease of 3% year-on-year [2][6]. - The new business segment is expected to maintain strong growth, with a projected revenue increase of 21% year-on-year [3][7]. Investment Analysis - The report recommends focusing on Hong Kong vocational education companies, particularly China Oriental Education, due to a rebound in vocational training demand and the company's proactive operational adjustments. It also suggests monitoring higher education companies as profitability is expected to improve [12].