Now you can get access to the latest and highest-quality analysis of recent Wall Street buying and selling ideas with just one subscription to Beyond the Wall Investing ! There is a free trial and a special discount of 10% for you. Join us today!Last time I updated my bullish rating on Alibaba (NYSE: BABA ) stock in August 2025 , I previewed the then-upcoming fiscal Q1 2026 and argued that it could catalyze the stock price and eventually lead to aDaniel Sereda is chief investment analyst at a family office ...

证券时报·数据宝统计显示，9月30日港股通（包括沪市港股通及深市港股通）成交活跃股合计成交 496.31亿港元，净买入金额为98.86亿港元。 9月30日上榜的成交活跃股中，阿里巴巴-W通过港股通渠道成交金额为139.05亿港元，净买入金额为 36.29亿港元，不仅如此，该股已连续28日出现成交净买入，累计净买入金额为816.85亿港元，其间股价 上涨52.98%。（数据宝） 阿里巴巴-W获南向资金连续28天净买入，累计净买入金额为816.85亿港元，股价累计上涨52.98%。 （文章来源：证券时报网） ...

| 代码 | 简称 | 类型 | 成交金额（万港元） | 成交净买入（万港元） | 日涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 09988 | 阿里巴巴-W | 港股通(沪) | 884853.24 | 150911.33 | 2.08 | | 09988 | 阿里巴巴-W | 港股通(深) | 505600.00 | 212032.59 | 2.08 | | 00981 | 中芯国际 | 港股通(沪) | 430989.59 | 65617.45 | 3.99 | | 00981 | 中芯国际 | 港股通(深) | 330591.00 | -4229.09 | 3.99 | | 00700 | 腾讯控股 | 港股通(沪) | 328250.01 | 81133.80 | 0.45 | | 01810 | 小米集团-W | 港股通(沪) | 309184.45 | 71553.02 | 0.84 | | 01347 | 华虹半导体 | 港股通(沪) | 264176.23 | 23059.13 | 10.96 | | 03690 | 美团-W | 港股通 ...

9月30日恒生指数上涨0.87%，南向资金全天合计成交金额为1491.07亿港元，其中，买入成交822.94亿 港元，卖出成交668.14亿港元，合计净买入金额154.80亿港元。具体来看，港股通（深）累计成交金额 522.78亿港元，买入成交293.40亿港元，卖出成交229.39亿港元，合计净买入金额64.01亿港元；港股通 （沪）累计成交金额968.29亿港元，买入成交529.54亿港元，卖出成交438.75亿港元，合计净买入金额 90.79亿港元。 9月30日南向资金成交活跃股 | 代码 | 简称 | 成交金额（万港元） | 成交净买入（万港元） | 今日涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 09988 | 阿里巴巴-W | 1390454.02 | 362943.73 | 2.08 | | 02800 | 盈富基金 | 151760.40 | 143255.31 | 1.03 | | 00700 | 腾讯控股 | 468262.31 | 113421.08 | 0.45 | | 01810 | 小米集团-W | 512199.86 | 105482.7 ...

花旗指出，上调后的2026年资本开支增长预期为24%，显著高于目前20%的市场共识。报告预计，各大科技巨头将在第三季度业绩指引中反映这 一增量支出，整个AI基础设施产业链，包括半导体、硬件及其他基础设施供应商，都将从这轮加速投资中受益。 与此同时，花旗强调这轮AI投资浪潮与互联网泡沫存在本质区别。当前企业对AI服务需求的快速增长为投资提供了"明确的外部验证"，为投资循 环创造了关键的"出口"。花旗估计，到2030年AI算力需求将新增55GW全球电力容量，带来2.8万亿美元的增量AI算力支出。 花旗集团最新研究认为，人工智能基础设施的投资与部署正在以远超预期的速度"急剧加速"，这并非是2000年互联网泡沫的重演，其关键区别在 于真实存在的企业级需求为这轮投资热潮提供了"出口"，形成了价值验证的闭环。 据追风交易台消息，基于这一判断，花旗分析师大幅上调了对科技巨头的AI资本开支预测，将2026年的AI资本开支预测从4200亿美元上调至4900 亿美元。同时，到2029年的累计资本开支预测也从2.3万亿美元提升至2.8万亿美元。 花旗报告显示，AI基础设施建设正步入加速期。据Epoch AI数据，自2010年以来， ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Alibaba is "Buy" (maintained) with a target price of 205.34 HKD [4][9] Core Insights - The report highlights Alibaba's rapid advancements in AI technology and its strong commitment to becoming a global leader in AI services, with significant investments in AI and cloud computing [8] - The company has solidified its position in AI and instant retail, with expectations for continued revenue growth in its cloud business due to its leading model capabilities and open-source strategy [9] - The forecast for Alibaba's revenue for FY2026-2028 has been adjusted upwards due to the deepening AI strategy and advancements in model technology, with projected revenues of 10084 billion, 11391 billion, and 12482 billion respectively [9][11] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Alibaba's stock price as of September 29, 2025, is 173.4 HKD, with a 52-week high of 177.8 HKD and a low of 76.07 HKD [4] - The total market capitalization of Alibaba's H shares is 3,307,194 million HKD [4] Financial Performance - The report projects a revenue growth of 8.34% for 2024, with a slight increase to 5.86% in 2025, followed by a modest growth of 1.21% in 2026 [11] - The adjusted net profit for FY2026-2028 is forecasted to be 1412 billion, 1878 billion, and 2166 billion respectively, reflecting an increase in profit margins due to accelerated AI revenue [9][11] AI and Cloud Strategy - Alibaba's AI strategy is characterized by a commitment to open-source models, with the Qwen series models achieving significant user penetration and growth in derivative models [8] - The company aims to enhance its cloud services, with expectations of a tenfold increase in energy consumption for global data centers by 2032, indicating a robust growth trajectory in cloud computing [8] Market Position - The report emphasizes Alibaba's leading position in the AI model landscape, with Qwen 3 max ranking third globally in LLM Arena scores, surpassing competitors like GPT-5 [8][12] - The open-source strategy has resulted in over 100,000 clients for the Qwen series, with a significant increase in model downloads and usage [8][14]

Core Insights - On September 30, 2025, Alibaba-W (09988), SMIC (00981), and Tencent Holdings (00700) were the top three companies by trading volume in the southbound trading of the Stock Connect, with trading amounts of 8.849 billion, 4.310 billion, and 3.283 billion respectively [1] - In the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, Alibaba-W (09988), SMIC (00981), and Xiaomi Group-W (01810) also led the trading volume, with amounts of 5.056 billion, 3.306 billion, and 2.030 billion respectively [1] Southbound Trading Highlights - **Top Active Companies in Southbound Trading (Hong Kong Stock Connect)** - Alibaba-W (09988): Trading amount of 8.849 billion, net inflow of 1.509 billion - SMIC (00981): Trading amount of 4.310 billion, net inflow of 0.656 billion - Tencent Holdings (00700): Trading amount of 3.283 billion, net inflow of 0.811 billion - Xiaomi Group-W (01810): Trading amount of 3.092 billion, net inflow of 0.716 billion - Huahong Semiconductor (01347): Trading amount of 2.642 billion, net inflow of 0.231 billion [2] - **Top Active Companies in Southbound Trading (Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect)** - Alibaba-W (09988): Trading amount of 5.056 billion, net inflow of 2.120 billion - SMIC (00981): Trading amount of 3.306 billion, net outflow of 0.423 billion - Xiaomi Group-W (01810): Trading amount of 2.030 billion, net inflow of 0.339 billion - Huahong Semiconductor (01347): Trading amount of 1.961 billion, net inflow of 0.704 billion - Tencent Holdings (00700): Trading amount of 1.400 billion, net inflow of 0.323 billion [2]

Group 1 - Southbound funds net purchased Hong Kong stocks worth 15.48 billion HKD today [1] - Notable net purchases include Alibaba-W at 3.629 billion HKD, Tracker Fund at 1.433 billion HKD, and Xiaomi Group-W at 1.055 billion HKD [1] - Southbound funds have continuously net purchased Alibaba for 28 days, totaling 78.98389 billion HKD [1] Group 2 - Southbound funds have net purchased Xiaomi for 3 consecutive days, totaling 2.65616 billion HKD [1] - Other significant net purchases include Hua Hong Semiconductor at 934 million HKD, Kuaishou-W at 622 million HKD, and SMIC at 613 million HKD [1]

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba Group's stock has surged approximately 5% due to increased investor confidence in its cloud computing and artificial intelligence initiatives, making it the best-performing Chinese tech stock in September [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Alibaba's year-to-date stock gain exceeds 112%, significantly outperforming the NYSE Composite index's 13% returns, with the stock trading above its 52-week high of $181.34 [2] - The stock is on track for its best monthly performance since its 2019 Hong Kong listing, coinciding with triple-digit growth in AI-related products and exceeding sales expectations in its cloud unit [8] Group 2: AI and Cloud Computing Initiatives - Alibaba's Qwen3-Omni multimodal AI system has achieved the top rank on Hugging Face's trending model list, outperforming both its predecessor and competitors like OpenAI's GPT-4o and Google's Gemini-2.5-Flash in various recognition tasks [3][4] - The Qwen3-Omni series is described as the first native end-to-end model that integrates text, images, audio, and video, showcasing Alibaba's advancements in AI technology [4] Group 3: Market Position and Analyst Sentiment - Alibaba's open-source models dominate Hugging Face rankings, with half of the top 10 models being from Alibaba, surpassing Meta Platforms' Llama [5] - Analysts have revised their ratings upward, with Morningstar calling Alibaba undervalued due to increased spending on data centers, adoption of AI models, and rising cloud revenues [6] - Morgan Stanley has raised its cloud growth estimates to 32% for fiscal 2026 and 40% for fiscal 2027, citing increased capital expenditures and new partnerships [7] Group 4: Strategic Partnerships and Future Outlook - Alibaba has announced a partnership with Nvidia to enhance its AI capabilities, further solidifying its commitment to AI investment [7] - Analysts believe that Alibaba's full-stack cloud-AI integration could strengthen the position of Chinese equity markets in the global AI narrative [9]

Group 1: Market Overview - In September, global asset prices experienced significant fluctuations, with notable volatility in A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and U.S. markets, particularly in sectors like precious metals, semiconductors, and innovative pharmaceuticals [1][3] - The market showed a dual driving force of "technology growth" and "cyclical recovery," with structural growth highlights attracting capital despite a generally slowing macroeconomic environment [3][12] Group 2: Top Performing Sectors - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, saw a substantial rise, with A-shares and Hong Kong stocks related to these commodities performing exceptionally well, driven by historical highs in international gold prices [3][4] - The battery supply chain, especially solid-state batteries and energy metals like lithium, cobalt, and nickel, gained attention due to increased demand and valuation recovery, reflecting optimism about long-term trends in energy storage [5][8] - The wind power sector experienced a turnaround, with significant growth in new installations and improved profitability expectations, marking a shift from revenue growth to profit recovery [9] - The semiconductor industry, particularly in AI-related technologies, saw a surge in demand, leading to substantial stock price increases for leading companies in this space [10][12] Group 3: Underperforming Sectors - The military industry, which had previously seen significant gains, faced a sharp decline in September, with many stocks experiencing over 40% pullbacks following the conclusion of major events [13][14] - Banking stocks, traditionally seen as stable investments, faced a collective downturn as funds shifted towards more popular sectors, with several banks experiencing declines of over 20% [15][17] - The food and beverage sector continued to struggle, with a notable drop in demand and performance, particularly in the liquor and snack segments, leading to significant underperformance compared to the broader market [19][25] Group 4: Technology Giants Performance - In the Hong Kong market, Alibaba and Tencent were standout performers, with Alibaba's stock rising by 53% and Tencent by 11.15%, reflecting strong market sentiment towards technology stocks [28][29] - In the U.S. market, September defied historical trends, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices posting gains of 3.11% and 5.29%, respectively, driven by strong performances from tech giants like Nvidia, Apple, and Tesla [30][32] Group 5: Future Outlook - The overall market performance in September was influenced by global liquidity conditions and capital flows into emerging markets, suggesting a continuation of a "slow bull" market trend into October [33]